But I'm not sure Trump's trroubles are any worse than they've been and he seems to weather most of them and take apart any specific opponent. I'd rather be backing than laying at current odds.
Polling-wise I agree, but the economy heading south, and for reasons that are traceably his fault, is a big deal. There are two elements to Trump's support: The nativist base is the core of it, but they represent less than 30% of the electorate. What got him the rest of the way is voters who thought that as a successful businessman, he'd be good at managing the economy. If the economy is strong come the election, he has a clear path to victory. If it isn't, he doesn't.
I would agree with this. However, turnout is notoriously difficult to poll. In the US they basically exclude you if you didn't vote last time. The midterms showed Trump motivates his base, but also his opponents. A large group of previous non-voters cannot be discounted.
I can see who the anti-Trump ex-non-voters could be but I don't really see who the pro-Trump non-voters who failed to come out for Trump against Hillary are.
Those polls have enormous "don't know" numbers. Beto is barely known outside Texas (and outsize political obsessive circles...). Biden only scores best because he is best known.
What is notable is that 42% of voters are sticking with Trump no matter what. That should give him *some* comfort.
Actually the highest Trump got was 37% in the Hill poll v Sanders and O'Rourke, it was only Biden who got to 42%
What are the current thoughts on trump 2020? I still think he's going to run and that he's going to win.
My thinking is that Democrats still don't know how to campaign against Trump without insulting his [potential] supporters, thus helping him to win again.
Though he runs quite good campaign against himself!
I'm amazed that he received more than 10% of the vote for so many reasons. And yet he did. There's not that much that is new now that wasn't evident in November 2016. If it didn't stop people from voting for him then it won't stop them in 2020.
If President Trump's policies revitalise the rust belt, then he will win those states handsomely, and his path to a second term (assuming no health issues, etc.) will be assured.
But the regional GDP data for Q2 showed that the slowest growing states in the US were... in the rust belt again. Idaho and New Mexico were the slowest growers, but after that it was Wisconsin, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Only Michigan bucked the trend in the rust belt.
President Trump needs these states to - if not be leading the pack - then at least not be falling further behind.
There's an interesting difference here I think between how the 'rust belt's in the UK and USA are differing economically because of the size of the USA.
Much of the UK's heavy industry 'rust belt' has far more jobs now than a century ago:
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
I had a video call with my son and his wife in Vancouver this evening. My daughter in law promotes British Columbia throughout asia and china and there is a real crisis now for Canada with the arrest and detention of Meng Wanzhou, awaiting extradition to US
China have cancelled all promotion of BC and have detained 2 Canadians in tit for tat and my daughter in law is not permitted entry to China. Indeed the Canadian government advice to its citizens in that China is 'high risk' for travel.
It seems the extradition hearing for Wanzhou is not before February and Canada are taking a big hit for being an ally of the US and caught up with Trumps attack on Wanzhou's Iran links
Doesn't look like the harvest rotted in the fields does it
It also makes me wonder about all the claims about foodbanks.
Which claims? That they exist, are over subscribed or that they're a damned good thing as our Tory overlords insist?
I guess the truly destitute would need the abilty to get to the supermarket, the pence to buy tatties & carrots and the means to cook them. The food bank I contribute to is currently asking for men's toiletries, tinned vegetables, UHT milk, breakfast cereals & cartons of juice.
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead.
That government of course was facing a Leader of the Opposition in Kinnock who, like Corbyn, had lost the previous general election but stayed on as leader having done better than expected after a good campaign
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Edit: Sorry I mis-read your post but it's still two governments prior to this one have lasted this long and had a poll lead in the past 50 years.
Doesn't look like the harvest rotted in the fields does it
It also makes me wonder about all the claims about foodbanks.
Which claims? That they exist, are over subscribed or that they're a damned good thing as our Tory overlords insist?
I guess the truly destitute would need the abilty to get to the supermarket, the pence to buy tatties & carrots and the means to cook them. The food bank I contribute to is currently asking for men's toiletries, tinned vegetables, UHT milk, breakfast cereals & cartons of juice.
Weren't we were told that people couldn't afford to eat in this country ?
Pence at c.3% looks value to me... 30% probability that Trump resigns before 2020 in order to kill impeachment, having got commitments that Jr and Ivanka are pardoned... +10% probability that he dies... gives 40% that Pence is President before 2020, then 50% that he wins nomination, then 40% that Pence beats Dem in 2020 gives combined probability of c.8% that Pence is President in 2020...
Trump cannot be successfully impeached while the Republicans control the Senate, and actuarily I would put the chance of death as 1-2% rather than 10%. I reckon 3% for Pence is about right.
Trump doesn’t have to be impeached to be ditched. Bit if he isn’t the candidate, I seriously doubt Pence will be.
The 25th Amendment provides probably the most convenient pathway for removing Trump. I don't think he'll need to continue his descent into insanity much further before the calls to Amendment 25-ing him become hard for the cabinet to ignore.
No, the easiest way to remove him, from the Republican pov, is during the primaries. The 25th procedure would be a huge leap into the unknown.
I think Trump will be Primaried, There are sane Republicans out there.
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead.
That government of course was facing a Leader of the Opposition in Kinnock who, like Corbyn, had lost the previous general election but stayed on as leader having done better than expected after a good campaign
I thought you presented as some kind of polling statistics expert?
If we are considering the fate of governments that made it to the milestone, depending on their position in the polls, I suggest that your base excludes those that didn't survive that long.
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Although in those three cases the eighth year of government saw their second re-election.
Things are a bit more complicated now with the second re-election coming in the seventh year of government.
So in some ways Christmas 2018 should be compared with Christmas 1988 and Christmas 2006 electorally - both of which saw the government on a steady downward path.
I just discovered the truth behind the Twitter account @Harryslaststand - a nonagenarian left wing war hero, fiercely supportive of the NHS, and much loved by Owen Jones,
1. He fucked off from Britain 60 years ago 2. He's been living in Canada in some style all that time 3. Since entering his last years his Twitter account has actually been run by his son 4. Recently that son set up a fundraiser, which made $74,000 for no obvious reason except "continuing Harry's legacy" - which might be OK, but.... 5. Since his dad's very recent death the son has now set up ANOTHER crowdsourcing fundraiser, apparently to "clear our debts", and this new one has already made $10,000. The son refuses to tell anyone what happened to the first $74k, or why he really needs another $100,000, and anyone that asks him on Twitter gets immediately blocked.
So this old man died. It is sad. But another leftwing online hero turns out to be a total fraud, and possibly criminally swindling to boot. Imagine my surprise.
I could see the Greens picking up a lot of disaffected Labour supporters.
A curious thing about the Greens is that they've gone through the same trajectory on the EU as Corbyn - strongly opposed in the old days (capitalist design) - now critical but on balance favourable. It's not obvious to me that they've much to offer anyone on the left - a bit more systematically environmental, but politically very similar to Labour's current leadership. Everyone likes Caroline Lucas, but she benefits from not being a contender for Number 10.
What does puzzle me is the continuing LibDem weakness. I'd have thought centrist pro-EU Labour supporters would be jolly tempted, but there's not much sign of it. Possibly politics is now simply too polarised to enable life in the interevening territory to flourish.
Cable needs to stand down. With Layla Moran the LDs would start to make headway.
What are the current thoughts on trump 2020? I still think he's going to run and that he's going to win.
My thinking is that Democrats still don't know how to campaign against Trump without insulting his [potential] supporters, thus helping him to win again.
Though he runs quite good campaign against himself!
I'm amazed that he received more than 10% of the vote for so many reasons. And yet he did. There's not that much that is new now that wasn't evident in November 2016. If it didn't stop people from voting for him then it won't stop them in 2020.
If President Trump's policies revitalise the rust belt, then he will win those states handsomely, and his path to a second term (assuming no health issues, etc.) will be assured.
But the regional GDP data for Q2 showed that the slowest growing states in the US were... in the rust belt again. Idaho and New Mexico were the slowest growers, but after that it was Wisconsin, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Only Michigan bucked the trend in the rust belt.
President Trump needs these states to - if not be leading the pack - then at least not be falling further behind.
There's an interesting difference here I think between how the 'rust belt's in the UK and USA are differing economically because of the size of the USA.
Much of the UK's heavy industry 'rust belt' has far more jobs now than a century ago:
The biggest job losses in that link over the last century are in Burnley and Blackburn in the North, both areas which voted strongly Leave in 2016 and are culturally similar to Trump voting areas in the US rustbelt.
It also mentions where jobs have been created in the UK 'rustbelt' ie the North, the Midlands and Wales they have tended to be in lower paid warehouse and distribution centres and call centres rather than say the knowledge economy higher paid jobs like finance, advertising and marketing and tech concentrated in big cities with major universities like London and Manchester
But I'm not sure Trump's trroubles are any worse than they've been and he seems to weather most of them and take apart any specific opponent. I'd rather be backing than laying at current odds.
Polling-wise I agree, but the economy heading south, and for reasons that are traceably his fault, is a big deal. There are two elements to Trump's support: The nativist base is the core of it, but they represent less than 30% of the electorate. What got him the rest of the way is voters who thought that as a successful businessman, he'd be good at managing the economy. If the economy is strong come the election, he has a clear path to victory. If it isn't, he doesn't.
I would agree with this. However, turnout is notoriously difficult to poll. In the US they basically exclude you if you didn't vote last time. The midterms showed Trump motivates his base, but also his opponents. A large group of previous non-voters cannot be discounted.
I can see who the anti-Trump ex-non-voters could be but I don't really see who the pro-Trump non-voters who failed to come out for Trump against Hillary are.
Yes. That is exactly the point I was trying (poorly) to make.
I could see the Greens picking up a lot of disaffected Labour supporters.
A curious thing about the Greens is that they've gone through the same trajectory on the EU as Corbyn - strongly opposed in the old days (capitalist design) - now critical but on balance favourable. It's not obvious to me that they've much to offer anyone on the left - a bit more systematically environmental, but politically very similar to Labour's current leadership. Everyone likes Caroline Lucas, but she benefits from not being a contender for Number 10.
What does puzzle me is the continuing LibDem weakness. I'd have thought centrist pro-EU Labour supporters would be jolly tempted, but there's not much sign of it. Possibly politics is now simply too polarised to enable life in the interevening territory to flourish.
Cable needs to stand down. With Layla Moran the LDs would start to make headway.
What does she bring?
Not being a senile old-dodderer / trendy vicar / mendacious eurocrat ?
I just discovered the truth behind the Twitter account @Harryslaststand - a nonagenarian left wing war hero, fiercely supportive of the NHS, and much loved by Owen Jones,
1. He fucked off from Britain 60 years ago 2. He's been living in Canada in some style all that time 3. Since entering his last years his Twitter account has actually been run by his son 4. Recently that son set up a fundraiser, which made $74,000 for no obvious reason except "continuing Harry's legacy" - which might be OK, but.... 5. Since his dad's very recent death the son has now set up ANOTHER crowdsourcing fundraiser, apparently to "clear our debts", and this new one has already made $10,000. The son refuses to tell anyone what happened to the first $74k, or why he really needs another $100,000, and anyone that asks him on Twitter gets immediately blocked.
So this old man died. It is sad. But another leftwing online hero turns out to be a total fraud, and possibly criminally swindling to boot. Imagine my surprise.
Don't know about 3-5. 1 and 2 were well known at the time. Least ways I was aware of it.
“Future generations will read in wonder that Die Hard was ever thought not to be a Christmas movie and articles such as the one you’re reading now will be seen as nothing but a massive waste of everyone’s time. Imagine that!”
I think this is right, and would also add that we have no idea how his foreign policy is going to pan out, and it's so much harder to predict what's going to happen because his approach is so different and there is literally no precedent.
Do the voters get excited about foreign policy? I mean, they like declaring war, and they dislike long-term military engagements, but beyond that?
I did wonder if the one out Trump had was to go to war against somebody close to the election and get the voters enthused about that; When Trump bombed runways in Syria he got a very warm reception from the Very Sensible punditry, and (IIRC) a reasonable polling boost. But since he's doing the whole "promises made, promises kept" thing on Syria and Afghanistan and he's already staked his credibility on the idea that he's made peace with North Korea the options for a grand patriotic war are looking a little bit complicated.
I had a video call with my son and his wife in Vancouver this evening. My daughter in law promotes British Columbia throughout asia and china and there is a real crisis now for Canada with the arrest and detention of Meng Wanzhou, awaiting extradition to US
China have cancelled all promotion of BC and have detained 2 Canadians in tit for tat and my daughter in law is not permitted entry to China. Indeed the Canadian government advice to its citizens in that China is 'high risk' for travel.
It seems the extradition hearing for Wanzhou is not before February and Canada are taking a big hit for being an ally of the US and caught up with Trumps attack on Wanzhou's Iran links
Canada has rightly responded to an extradition attempt. I don’t know how strong the case is but presumably there is enough evidence to warrant the arrest
China has responded by arresting innocent parties and shutting down legitimate economic activity
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Edit: Sorry I mis-read your post but it's still two governments prior to this one have lasted this long and had a poll lead in the past 50 years.
Nope, Blair's government trailed Cameron's Tories by December 2005 and 50 years ago was 1968 ie the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government had long since passed
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Although in those three cases the eighth year of government saw their second re-election.
Things are a bit more complicated now with the second re-election coming in the seventh year of government.
So in some ways Christmas 2018 should be compared with Christmas 1988 and Christmas 2006 electorally - both of which saw the government on a steady downward path.
??? December 1988: The six polls I have figures for: Marplan, Gallup, MORI, ASL, MORI and G9000, show Con leads of: 6.0, 11.0, 10.0, 8.0, 5.0 and 8.2% respectively. So not on a downward trend at all.
I really think for many people deprivation is more a state of mind rather than actual financial means.
Food bank use correlates very highly with poor mental health, yes. Not everywhere is within walking distance of a cheap supermarket. Rural public transport is virtually extinct.
Fresh food gets a bit less cheap if you're really poor - you don't have great cooking facilities, you may not have space to bulk cook and freeze, and what you do have to cook with is probably on an extortionate prepayment meter.
What are the current thoughts on trump 2020? I still think he's going to run and that he's going to win.
My thinking is that Democrats still don't know how to campaign against Trump without insulting his [potential] supporters, thus helping him to win again.
Though he runs quite good campaign against himself!
I'm amazed that he received more than 10% of the vote for so many reasons. And yet he did. There's not that much that is new now that wasn't evident in November 2016. If it didn't stop people from voting for him then it won't stop them in 2020.
If President Trump's policies revitalise the rust belt, then he will win those states handsomely, and his path to a second term (assuming no health issues, etc.) will be assured.
But the regional GDP data for Q2 showed that the slowest growing states in the US were... in the rust belt again. Idaho and New Mexico were the slowest growers, but after that it was Wisconsin, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Only Michigan bucked the trend in the rust belt.
President Trump needs these states to - if not be leading the pack - then at least not be falling further behind.
There's an interesting difference here I think between how the 'rust belt's in the UK and USA are differing economically because of the size of the USA.
Much of the UK's heavy industry 'rust belt' has far more jobs now than a century ago:
The biggest job losses in that link over the last century are in Burnley and Blackburn in the North, both areas which voted strongly Leave in 2016 and are culturally similar to Trump voting areas in the US rustbelt.
It also mentions where jobs have been created in the UK 'rustbelt' ie the North, the Midlands and Wales they have tended to be in lower paid warehouse and distribution centres and call centres rather than say the knowledge economy higher paid jobs like finance, advertising and marketing and tech concentrated in big cities with major universities like London and Manchester
One of the reasons old textile areas have lost jobs is that they had high levels of female employment before it became common.
Meanwhile those areas where jobs have been created also have low living costs - perhaps you might remember your comparison of home ownership levels in Cannock to those in London.
I had a video call with my son and his wife in Vancouver this evening. My daughter in law promotes British Columbia throughout asia and china and there is a real crisis now for Canada with the arrest and detention of Meng Wanzhou, awaiting extradition to US
China have cancelled all promotion of BC and have detained 2 Canadians in tit for tat and my daughter in law is not permitted entry to China. Indeed the Canadian government advice to its citizens in that China is 'high risk' for travel.
It seems the extradition hearing for Wanzhou is not before February and Canada are taking a big hit for being an ally of the US and caught up with Trumps attack on Wanzhou's Iran links
Canada has rightly responded to an extradition attempt. I don’t know how strong the case is but presumably there is enough evidence to warrant the arrest
China has responded by arresting innocent parties and shutting down legitimate economic activity
It’s not Trump who is causing the problem
I am not wrong on China stopping the promotion of BC, or that they have detained two Canadians, or that my daughter in law's frequent trips to China are now stopped or that visiting China for Canadians is 'high risk'
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Although in those three cases the eighth year of government saw their second re-election.
Things are a bit more complicated now with the second re-election coming in the seventh year of government.
So in some ways Christmas 2018 should be compared with Christmas 1988 and Christmas 2006 electorally - both of which saw the government on a steady downward path.
??? December 1988: The six polls I have figures for: Marplan, Gallup, MORI, ASL, MORI and G9000, show Con leads of: 6.0, 11.0, 10.0, 8.0, 5.0 and 8.2% respectively. So not on a downward trend at all.
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Although in those three cases the eighth year of government saw their second re-election.
Things are a bit more complicated now with the second re-election coming in the seventh year of government.
So in some ways Christmas 2018 should be compared with Christmas 1988 and Christmas 2006 electorally - both of which saw the government on a steady downward path.
??? December 1988: The six polls I have figures for: Marplan, Gallup, MORI, ASL, MORI and G9000, show Con leads of: 6.0, 11.0, 10.0, 8.0, 5.0 and 8.2% respectively. So not on a downward trend at all.
Well it was downward trend from the 1987 general election
But fair point - the Conservatives were certainly well behind Labour by the 1989 local and Euro elections.
I just discovered the truth behind the Twitter account @Harryslaststand - a nonagenarian left wing war hero, fiercely supportive of the NHS, and much loved by Owen Jones,
1. He fucked off from Britain 60 years ago 2. He's been living in Canada in some style all that time 3. Since entering his last years his Twitter account has actually been run by his son 4. Recently that son set up a fundraiser, which made $74,000 for no obvious reason except "continuing Harry's legacy" - which might be OK, but.... 5. Since his dad's very recent death the son has now set up ANOTHER crowdsourcing fundraiser, apparently to "clear our debts", and this new one has already made $10,000. The son refuses to tell anyone what happened to the first $74k, or why he really needs another $100,000, and anyone that asks him on Twitter gets immediately blocked.
So this old man died. It is sad. But another leftwing online hero turns out to be a total fraud, and possibly criminally swindling to boot. Imagine my surprise.
But which one of the PB expat Brexiters was he?
You'll love this - his account is passionately Remain. All the way from Ontario. lol.
Of all the passionate remainers I know, the ones who also contrive to be patriotic Canadians or Kiwis annoy me the most. Your countries are literally defined by their choice not to participate in the federal unions on their doorstep.
I could see the Greens picking up a lot of disaffected Labour supporters.
A curious thing about the Greens is that they've gone through the same trajectory on the EU as Corbyn - strongly opposed in the old days (capitalist design) - now critical but on balance favourable. It's not obvious to me that they've much to offer anyone on the left - a bit more systematically environmental, but politically very similar to Labour's current leadership. Everyone likes Caroline Lucas, but she benefits from not being a contender for Number 10.
What does puzzle me is the continuing LibDem weakness. I'd have thought centrist pro-EU Labour supporters would be jolly tempted, but there's not much sign of it. Possibly politics is now simply too polarised to enable life in the interevening territory to flourish.
Cable needs to stand down. With Layla Moran the LDs would start to make headway.
What does she bring?
The problem is that she doesn't want the job, at least for now. And who can blame her, brand new in Parliament and tipped for the top job in a diminished party because Swinson doesn't want it either.
A curious thing about the Greens is that they've gone through the same trajectory on the EU as Corbyn - strongly opposed in the old days (capitalist design) - now critical but on balance favourable.
Most of us recognise and even respect your position as a Labour porte-étendard but don't insult our intelligence by pretending Corbo is "on balance favourable" to the EU.
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Edit: Sorry I mis-read your post but it's still two governments prior to this one have lasted this long and had a poll lead in the past 50 years.
Nope, Blair's government trailed Cameron's Tories by December 2005 and 50 years ago was 1968 ie the Macmillan government had long since passed
Why are you arbitarily reducing the period in scope to 50 years?
The original claim (from Mortimer, I believe) was that it is: "Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power"
This is clearly not true since the last three times a government has been in power for 8.5 years they have been ahead in the polls (sometimes only just, sometimes not for much longer) .
“Future generations will read in wonder that Die Hard was ever thought not to be a Christmas movie and articles such as the one you’re reading now will be seen as nothing but a massive waste of everyone’s time. Imagine that!”
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Although in those three cases the eighth year of government saw their second re-election.
Things are a bit more complicated now with the second re-election coming in the seventh year of government.
So in some ways Christmas 2018 should be compared with Christmas 1988 and Christmas 2006 electorally - both of which saw the government on a steady downward path.
??? December 1988: The six polls I have figures for: Marplan, Gallup, MORI, ASL, MORI and G9000, show Con leads of: 6.0, 11.0, 10.0, 8.0, 5.0 and 8.2% respectively. So not on a downward trend at all.
I just discovered the truth behind the Twitter account @Harryslaststand - a nonagenarian left wing war hero, fiercely supportive of the NHS, and much loved by Owen Jones,
1. He fucked off from Britain 60 years ago 2. He's been living in Canada in some style all that time 3. Since entering his last years his Twitter account has actually been run by his son 4. Recently that son set up a fundraiser, which made $74,000 for no obvious reason except "continuing Harry's legacy" - which might be OK, but.... 5. Since his dad's very recent death the son has now set up ANOTHER crowdsourcing fundraiser, apparently to "clear our debts", and this new one has already made $10,000. The son refuses to tell anyone what happened to the first $74k, or why he really needs another $100,000, and anyone that asks him on Twitter gets immediately blocked.
So this old man died. It is sad. But another leftwing online hero turns out to be a total fraud, and possibly criminally swindling to boot. Imagine my surprise.
But which one of the PB expat Brexiters was he?
You'll love this - his account is passionately Remain. All the way from Ontario. lol.
Saw a chap reading the book on the train today.
Somehow, all the above doesn’t surprise me at all. All part of the SJW-Journalism-Social Media complex...
What are the current thoughts on trump 2020? I still think he's going to run and that he's going to win.
My thinking is that Democrats still don't know how to campaign against Trump without insulting his [potential] supporters, thus helping him to win again.
Though he runs quite good campaign against himself!
I'm amazed that he receive2020.
If President Trump's policies revitalise the rust belt, then he will win those states handsomely, and his path to a second term (assuming no health issues, etc.) will be assured.
But the regional GDP data for Q2 showed that the slowest growing states in the US were... in the rust belt again. Idaho and New Mexico were the slowest growers, but after that it was Wisconsin, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Only Michigan bucked the trend in the rust belt.
President Trump needs these states to - if not be leading the pack - then at least not be falling further behind.
There's an interesting difference here I think between how the 'rust belt's in the UK and USA are differing economically because of the size of the USA.
Much of the UK's heavy industry 'rust belt' has far more jobs now than a century ago:
The biggest job losses in that link over the last century are in Burnley and Blackburn in the North, both areas which voted strongly Leave in 2016 and are culturally similar to Trump voting areas in the US rustbelt.
It also mentions where jobs have been created in the UK 'rustbelt' ie the North, the Midlands and Wales they have tended to be in lower paid warehouse and distribution centres and call centres rather than say the knowledge economy higher paid jobs like finance, advertising and marketing and tech concentrated in big cities with major universities like London and Manchester
One of the reasons old textile areas have lost jobs is that they had high levels of female employment before it became common.
Meanwhile those areas where jobs have been created also have low living costs - perhaps you might remember your comparison of home ownership levels in Cannock to those in London.
I don't deny home ownership is higher in the North and Midlands than London but earnings are lower and the non London South has home ownership levels not that different from the North and Midlands while benefiting from the higher earnings and property prices of being in the London commuter belt
I had a video call with my son and his wife in Vancouver this evening. My daughter in law promotes British Columbia throughout asia and china and there is a real crisis now for Canada with the arrest and detention of Meng Wanzhou, awaiting extradition to US
China have cancelled all promotion of BC and have detained 2 Canadians in tit for tat and my daughter in law is not permitted entry to China. Indeed the Canadian government advice to its citizens in that China is 'high risk' for travel.
It seems the extradition hearing for Wanzhou is not before February and Canada are taking a big hit for being an ally of the US and caught up with Trumps attack on Wanzhou's Iran links
Canada has rightly responded to an extradition attempt. I don’t know how strong the case is but presumably there is enough evidence to warrant the arrest
China has responded by arresting innocent parties and shutting down legitimate economic activity
It’s not Trump who is causing the problem
I am not wrong on China stopping the promotion of BC, or that they have detained two Canadians, or that my daughter in law's frequent trips to China are now stopped or that visiting China for Canadians is 'high risk'
I’m challenging your conclusion (“trump is causing economic carnage worldwide”) not your fact pattern. Your issue is with what China is doing
Canada has rightly responded to an extradition attempt. I don’t know how strong the case is but presumably there is enough evidence to warrant the arrest
China has responded by arresting innocent parties and shutting down legitimate economic activity
It’s not Trump who is causing the problem
Agree, this one doesn't really seem to be Trump's fault, although it can't be easy to explain that the whole thing is a legal process that's out of your control while at the same time ignoring checks on your power, flagrantly interfering in your own investigation and threatening them with tariffs on obviously-bogus "national security" grounds.
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Edit: Sorry I mis-read your post but it's still two governments prior to this one have lasted this long and had a poll lead in the past 50 years.
Nope, Blair's government trailed Cameron's Tories by December 2005 and 50 years ago was 1968 ie the Macmillan government had long since passed
Why are you arbitarily reducing the period in scope to 50 years?
The original claim (from Mortimer, I believe) was that it is: "Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power"
This is clearly not true since the last three times a government has been in power for 8.5 years they have been ahead in the polls (sometimes only just, sometimes not for much longer) .
Nothing remarkable it at all.
Except you are even wrong on that for as I pointed out the Blair government trailed Cameron's Tories by December 2005
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Edit: Sorry I mis-read your post but it's still two governments prior to this one have lasted this long and had a poll lead in the past 50 years.
Nope, Blair's government trailed Cameron's Tories by December 2005 and 50 years ago was 1968 ie the Macmillan government had long since passed
Why are you arbitarily reducing the period in scope to 50 years?
The original claim (from Mortimer, I believe) was that it is: "Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power"
This is clearly not true since the last three times a government has been in power for 8.5 years they have been ahead in the polls (sometimes only just, sometimes not for much longer) .
Nothing remarkable it at all.
I suspect that it is remarkable from the set of all government and not remarkable in the group of governments that have last 8.5 years
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Although in those three cases the eighth year of government saw their second re-election.
Things are a bit more complicated now with the second re-election coming in the seventh year of government.
So in some ways Christmas 2018 should be compared with Christmas 1988 and Christmas 2006 electorally - both of which saw the government on a steady downward path.
??? December 1988: The six polls I have figures for: Marplan, Gallup, MORI, ASL, MORI and G9000, show Con leads of: 6.0, 11.0, 10.0, 8.0, 5.0 and 8.2% respectively. So not on a downward trend at all.
Well it was downward trend from the 1987 general election
But fair point - the Conservatives were certainly well behind Labour by the 1989 local and Euro elections.
Yes it was a phenominal fall from grace during 1989. Average Con lead went from +8.2% in January 1989 -8.3% in December 89!
I really think for many people deprivation is more a state of mind rather than actual financial means.
Food bank use correlates very highly with poor mental health, yes. Not everywhere is within walking distance of a cheap supermarket. Rural public transport is virtually extinct.
You've certainly got a point about the rural poor being socio-economically disadvantaged.
The Tories have been in power alone for three years. We did not know it at the time, but the coalition had a very different character. I certainly underestimated the extent the Lib Dem’s kept thing going. It still wasn’t good, but it was different and better than this basket case.
I had a video call with my son and his wife in Vancouver this evening. My daughter in law promotes British Columbia throughout asia and china and there is a real crisis now for Canada with the arrest and detention of Meng Wanzhou, awaiting extradition to US
China have cancelled all promotion of BC and have detained 2 Canadians in tit for tat and my daughter in law is not permitted entry to China. Indeed the Canadian government advice to its citizens in that China is 'high risk' for travel.
It seems the extradition hearing for Wanzhou is not before February and Canada are taking a big hit for being an ally of the US and caught up with Trumps attack on Wanzhou's Iran links
Canada has rightly responded to an extradition attempt. I don’t know how strong the case is but presumably there is enough evidence to warrant the arrest
China has responded by arresting innocent parties and shutting down legitimate economic activity
It’s not Trump who is causing the problem
I am not wrong on China stopping the promotion of BC, or that they have detained two Canadians, or that my daughter in law's frequent trips to China are now stopped or that visiting China for Canadians is 'high risk'
I’m challenging your conclusion (“trump is causing economic carnage worldwide”) not your fact pattern. Your issue is with what China is doing
And China is doing it as Trump wants her extradited. Canada is the loser in all this
Fresh food gets a bit less cheap if you're really poor - you don't have great cooking facilities, you may not have space to bulk cook and freeze, and what you do have to cook with is probably on an extortionate prepayment meter.
Yes, all those and more. In large part bleak lives with little reason to improve require small short term pleasures in fast food etc. Unhealthy eating is a rational choice, in some circumstances.
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Edit: Sorry I mis-read your post but it's still two governments prior to this one have lasted this long and had a poll lead in the past 50 years.
Nope, Blair's government trailed Cameron's Tories by December 2005 and 50 years ago was 1968 ie the Macmillan government had long since passed
Why are you arbitarily reducing the period in scope to 50 years?
The original claim (from Mortimer, I believe) was that it is: "Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power"
This is clearly not true since the last three times a government has been in power for 8.5 years they have been ahead in the polls (sometimes only just, sometimes not for much longer) .
Nothing remarkable it at all.
Except you are even wrong on that for as I pointed out the Blair government trailed Cameron's Tories by December 2005
But 8.5 years was November 2005 when the average of five polls (BPIX, ICM, Populus, MORI, ICM, YouGov) was a 5.5% Labour lead!
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Although in those three cases the eighth year of government saw their second re-election.
Things are a bit more complicated now with the second re-election coming in the seventh year of government.
So in some ways Christmas 2018 should be compared with Christmas 1988 and Christmas 2006 electorally - both of which saw the government on a steady downward path.
??? December 1988: The six polls I have figures for: Marplan, Gallup, MORI, ASL, MORI and G9000, show Con leads of: 6.0, 11.0, 10.0, 8.0, 5.0 and 8.2% respectively. So not on a downward trend at all.
Well it was downward trend from the 1987 general election
But fair point - the Conservatives were certainly well behind Labour by the 1989 local and Euro elections.
Yes it was a phenominal fall from grace during 1989. Average Con lead went from +8.2% in January 1989 -8.3% in December 89!
It’s actually the councillor numbers that surprise me more than anything. The Conservative base is perhaps bigger than ever.
I really think for many people deprivation is more a state of mind rather than actual financial means.
Food bank use correlates very highly with poor mental health, yes. Not everywhere is within walking distance of a cheap supermarket. Rural public transport is virtually extinct.
You've certainly got a point about the rural poor being socio-economically disadvantaged.
They have zero political power under our system. Councils and MPs can largely afford to ignore them.
I had a video call with my son and his wife in Vancouver this evening. My daughter in law promotes British Columbia throughout asia and china and there is a real crisis now for Canada with the arrest and detention of Meng Wanzhou, awaiting extradition to US
China have cancelled all promotion of BC and have detained 2 Canadians in tit for tat and my daughter in law is not permitted entry to China. Indeed the Canadian government advice to its citizens in that China is 'high risk' for travel.
It seems the extradition hearing for Wanzhou is not before February and Canada are taking a big hit for being an ally of the US and caught up with Trumps attack on Wanzhou's Iran links
Canada has rightly responded to an extradition attempt. I don’t know how strong the case is but presumably there is enough evidence to warrant the arrest
China has responded by arresting innocent parties and shutting down legitimate economic activity
It’s not Trump who is causing the problem
The slightly funny bit is that the lady in question has been a regular visitor to the US, but was never arrested there.
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Edit: Sorry I mis-read your post but it's still two governments prior to this one have lasted this long and had a poll lead in the past 50 years.
Nope, Blair's government trailed Cameron's Tories by December 2005 and 50 years ago was 1968 ie the Macmillan government had long since passed
Why are you arbitarily reducing the period in scope to 50 years?
The original claim (from Mortimer, I believe) was that it is: "Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power"
This is clearly not true since the last three times a government has been in power for 8.5 years they have been ahead in the polls (sometimes only just, sometimes not for much longer) .
Nothing remarkable it at all.
I suspect that it is remarkable from the set of all government and not remarkable in the group of governments that have last 8.5 years
Well, the past three governments have all lasted over 8.5 years.
I could see the Greens picking up a lot of disaffected Labour supporters.
A curious thing about the Greens is that they've gone through the same trajectory on the EU as Corbyn - strongly opposed in the old days (capitalist design) - now critical but on balance favourable. It's not obvious to me that they've much to offer anyone on the left - a bit more systematically environmental, but politically very similar to Labour's current leadership. Everyone likes Caroline Lucas, but she benefits from not being a contender for Number 10.
What does puzzle me is the continuing LibDem weakness. I'd have thought centrist pro-EU Labour supporters would be jolly tempted, but there's not much sign of it. Possibly politics is now simply too polarised to enable life in the interevening territory to flourish.
Cable needs to stand down. With Layla Moran the LDs would start to make headway.
What does she bring?
Not being a senile old-dodderer / trendy vicar / mendacious eurocrat ?
Hard to think she could be any worse for the LibDems fortunes than Cable.
Fresh food gets a bit less cheap if you're really poor - you don't have great cooking facilities, you may not have space to bulk cook and freeze, and what you do have to cook with is probably on an extortionate prepayment meter.
Yes, all those and more. In large part bleak lives with little reason to improve require small short term pleasures in fast food etc. Unhealthy eating is a rational choice, in some circumstances.
There are certainly some people who really do suffer hardship through no fault of their own.
But I think there are differences between those who can't cook, those who can't afford to cook and those who can't be arsed to cook.
But I fear I'm heading towards a discussion about deserving and undeserving poor.
I just discovered the truth behind the Twitter account @Harryslaststand - a nonagenarian left wing war hero, fiercely supportive of the NHS, and much loved by Owen Jones,
1. He fucked off from Britain 60 years ago 2. He's been living in Canada in some style all that time 3. Since entering his last years his Twitter account has actually been run by his son 4. Recently that son set up a fundraiser, which made $74,000 for no obvious reason except "continuing Harry's legacy" - which might be OK, but.... 5. Since his dad's very recent death the son has now set up ANOTHER crowdsourcing fundraiser, apparently to "clear our debts", and this new one has already made $10,000. The son refuses to tell anyone what happened to the first $74k, or why he really needs another $100,000, and anyone that asks him on Twitter gets immediately blocked.
So this old man died. It is sad. But another leftwing online hero turns out to be a total fraud, and possibly criminally swindling to boot. Imagine my surprise.
But which one of the PB expat Brexiters was he?
You'll love this - his account is passionately Remain. All the way from Ontario. lol.
Saw a chap reading the book on the train today.
Somehow, all the above doesn’t surprise me at all. All part of the SJW-Journalism-Social Media complex...
It is the strangest phenomenon. Intelligent people totally swindled by obvious scammers, and manipulative gits, just because they say things that are quite nice about the NHS.
It's sublimated religiosity, I think. For millions of people, God has died and been replaced by lefty social media fakery, and/or Jeremy Corbyn. The only difference is that there is more hard evidence for the existence of God than there is for the well-meaning good sense of Jeremy Corbyn and his online army.
You may be on to summat there. However, can the same not be said for unquestioning worship of the "invisible hand", and its high priestess Ayn Rand? Not to mention the huge devotion paid to Trump by those with a sketchy knowledge of Christianity? It is amusing to see the outrage of the Right at Social Media. Now you know how we have felt all our life with daily newspapers forcing their opinions on us and driving the news agenda.
I could see the Greens picking up a lot of disaffected Labour supporters.
A curious thing about the Greens is that they've gone through the same trajectory on the EU as Corbyn - strongly opposed in the old days (capitalist design) - now critical but on balance favourable. It's not obvious to me that they've much to offer anyone on the left - a bit more systematically environmental, but politically very similar to Labour's current leadership. Everyone likes Caroline Lucas, but she benefits from not being a contender for Number 10.
What does puzzle me is the continuing LibDem weakness. I'd have thought centrist pro-EU Labour supporters would be jolly tempted, but there's not much sign of it. Possibly politics is now simply too polarised to enable life in the interevening territory to flourish.
Cable needs to stand down. With Layla Moran the LDs would start to make headway.
What does she bring?
Not being a senile old-dodderer / trendy vicar / mendacious eurocrat ?
Hard to think she could be any worse for the LibDems fortunes than Cable.
The Lib Dem’s problem is not the leader. It’s far deeper. No idea what they are for and when they do say they’re for something there’s a good chance they’ll do the opposite.
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were actually just ahead of the Labour government once Cameron took over.
The Tories r
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blut it's still two governments prior to this one have lasted this long and had a poll lead in the past 50 years.
Nope, Blair's government trailed Cameron's Tories by December 2005 and 50 years ago was 1968 ie the Macmillan government had long since passed
Why are scope to 50 years?
The original claim (from Mortimer, I believe) was that it is: "Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power"
This is clearly not true since the last three times a government has been in power for 8.5 years they have been ahead in the polls (sometimes only just, sometimes not for much longer) .
Nothing remarkable it at all.
Except you are even wrong on that for as I pointed out the Blair government trailed Cameron's Tories by December 2005
But 8.5 years was November 2005 when the average of five polls (BPIX, ICM, Populus, MORI, ICM, YouGov) was a 5.5% Labour lead!
The 2010 general election was in May as was the 1997 general election, we are now in December 8 years later and in December 2005 of 8 polls the Tories led in 5 and were tied in 1 according to UK Polling Report.
I just discovered the truth behind the Twitter account @Harryslaststand - a nonagenarian left wing war hero, fiercely supportive of the NHS, and much loved by Owen Jones,
1. He fucked off from Britain 60 years ago 2. He's been living in Canada in some style all that time 3. Since entering his last years his Twitter account has actually been run by his son 4. Recently that son set up a fundraiser, which made $74,000 for no obvious reason except "continuing Harry's legacy" - which might be OK, but.... 5. Since his dad's very recent death the son has now set up ANOTHER crowdsourcing fundraiser, apparently to "clear our debts", and this new one has already made $10,000. The son refuses to tell anyone what happened to the first $74k, or why he really needs another $100,000, and anyone that asks him on Twitter gets immediately blocked.
So this old man died. It is sad. But another leftwing online hero turns out to be a total fraud, and possibly criminally swindling to boot. Imagine my surprise.
But which one of the PB expat Brexiters was he?
You'll love this - his account is passionately Remain. All the way from Ontario. lol.
Saw a chap reading the book on the train today.
Somehow, all the above doesn’t surprise me at all. All part of the SJW-Journalism-Social Media complex...
It is the strangest phenomenon. Intelligent people totally swindled by obvious scammers, and manipulative gits, just because they say things that are quite nice about the NHS.
It's sublimated religiosity, I think. For millions of people, God has died and been replaced by lefty social media fakery, and/or Jeremy Corbyn. The only difference is that there is more hard evidence for the existence of God than there is for the well-meaning good sense of Jeremy Corbyn and his online army.
CON: 39% (+1) LAB: 39% (-) LDEM: 6% (-2) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec Chgs. w/ 14 Dec
Clearly a quiet period in British politics!
For all the fuss, no real change from GE 17.
Stalemate and Trench warfare.
Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power
The Tories under Macmillan were ahead in 1961 - after 10 years in power.
So in fact the last three times a government had been in power for 8 1/2 years they were ahead in the polls.
If anything this government is struggling, only being roughly neck and neck.
By December 2005 the Tories were act
So is that two out of three?
That is one out of five governments actually in the past 50 years prior to this one has lasted as long as this government and still had a poll lead
Er 3 out of 3 surely... Blair's, Thatcher's and the Churchill/Eden/Macmillan government of the 1950s
Edit: Sorry I mis-read your post but it's still two governments prior to this one have lasted this long and had a poll lead in the past 50 years.
Nope, Blair's government trailed Cameron's Tories by December 2005 and 50 years ago was 1968 ie the Macmillan government had long since passed
Why are you arbitarily reducing the period in scope to 50 years?
The original claim (from Mortimer, I believe) was that it is: "Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power"
This is clearly not true since the last three times a government has been in power for 8.5 years they have been ahead in the polls (sometimes only just, sometimes not for much longer) .
Nothing remarkable it at all.
I suspect that it is remarkable from the set of all government and not remarkable in the group of governments that have last 8.5 years
Well, the past three governments have all lasted over 8.5 years.
The 3 before that though lasted 6,4 and 5 years respectively
My three younger grandchildren are all asleep having counted down daily from about 40, the number of sleeps left. Indeed my 5 year old declared this afternoon he wanted to go to bed there and then
I just want to wish everyone a happy christmas and to those less fortunate may you receive help and shelter, a warm meal and lots of hugs
I really think for many people deprivation is more a state of mind rather than actual financial means.
Food bank use correlates very highly with poor mental health, yes. Not everywhere is within walking distance of a cheap supermarket. Rural public transport is virtually extinct.
You've certainly got a point about the rural poor being socio-economically disadvantaged.
They have zero political power under our system. Councils and MPs can largely afford to ignore them.
I'm often surprised as to how rural areas are assumed to be universally middle class and affluent.
Now perhaps that's what they're like in the commuter belts but in much of Eastern England its a different story.
There is something icky about mind bogglingly privileged people questioning whether people rely on foodbanks. We have fallen a long way.
You may rest assured that I have done my best to reduce the number of people who use food banks.
I no longer contribute to them.
Nice to see a bit of Christmas spirit there, Mr Scrooge.
My taxes pay for the workhouses and prisons
“Have they no refuge or resource?” cried Scrooge. “Are there no prisons?” said the Spirit, turning on him for the last time with his own words. “Are there no workhouses?”
I just discovered the truth behind the Twitter account @Harryslaststand - a nonagenarian left wing war hero, fiercely supportive of the NHS, and much loved by Owen Jones,
1. He fucked off from Britain 60 years ago 2. He's been living in Canada in some style all that time 3. Since entering his last years his Twitter account has actually been run by his son 4. Recently that son set up a fundraiser, which made $74,000 for no obvious reason except "continuing Harry's legacy" - which might be OK, but.... 5. Since his dad's very recent death the son has now set up ANOTHER crowdsourcing fundraiser, apparently to "clear our debts", and this new one has already made $10,000. The son refuses to tell anyone what happened to the first $74k, or why he really needs another $100,000, and anyone that asks him on Twitter gets immediately blocked.
So this old man died. It is sad. But another leftwing online hero turns out to be a total fraud, and possibly criminally swindling to boot. Imagine my surprise.
But which one of the PB expat Brexiters was he?
You'll love this - his account is passionately Remain. All the way from Ontario. lol.
Saw a chap reading the book on the train today.
Somehow, all the above doesn’t surprise me at all. All part of the SJW-Journalism-Social Media complex...
It is the strangest phenomenon. Intelligent people totally swindled by obvious scammers, and manipulative gits, just because they say things that are quite nice about the NHS.
It's sublimated religiosity, I think. For millions of people, God has died and been replaced by lefty social media fakery, and/or Jeremy Corbyn. The only difference is that there is more hard evidence for the existence of God than there is for the well-meaning good sense of Jeremy Corbyn and his online army.
You may be on to summat there. However, can the same not be said for unquestioning worship of the "invisible hand", and its high priestess Ayn Rand? Not to mention the huge devotion paid to Trump by those with a sketchy knowledge of Christianity? It is amusing to see the outrage of the Right at Social Media. Now you know how we have felt all our life with daily newspapers forcing their opinions on us and driving the news agenda.
Oh, I entirely agree. The Godless left and the Godless right have found new gods, and both are equally depressing and delusional.
The only difference is that the Lefties have an extra veneer of ugly moral snobbery, "I am better than you because I really CARE" etc etc
Some of them care. The ones volunteering. Then there are the ones on Twitter. The intersection is not high.
Pence at c.3% looks value to me... 30% probability that Trump resigns before 2020 in order to kill impeachment, having got commitments that Jr and Ivanka are pardoned... +10% probability that he dies... gives 40% that Pence is President before 2020, then 50% that he wins nomination, then 40% that Pence beats Dem in 2020 gives combined probability of c.8% that Pence is President in 2020...
Trump cannot be successfully impeached while the Republicans control the Senate, and actuarily I would put the chance of death as 1-2% rather than 10%. I reckon 3% for Pence is about right.
Trump doesn’t have to be impeached to be ditched. Bit if he isn’t the candidate, I seriously doubt Pence will be.
The 25th Amendment provides probably the most convenient pathway for removing Trump. I don't think he'll need to continue his descent into insanity much further before the calls to Amendment 25-ing him become hard for the cabinet to ignore.
No, the easiest way to remove him, from the Republican pov, is during the primaries. The 25th procedure would be a huge leap into the unknown.
I think Trump will be Primaried, There are sane Republicans out there.
There is something icky about mind bogglingly privileged people questioning whether people rely on foodbanks. We have fallen a long way.
You may rest assured that I have done my best to reduce the number of people who use food banks.
I no longer contribute to them.
Nice to see a bit of Christmas spirit there, Mr Scrooge.
My taxes pay for the workhouses and prisons
“Have they no refuge or resource?” cried Scrooge. “Are there no prisons?” said the Spirit, turning on him for the last time with his own words. “Are there no workhouses?”
£217bn of social security and tax credits in 2016/17:
I just discovered the truth behind the Twitter account @Harryslaststand - a nonagenarian left wing war hero, fiercely supportive of the NHS, and much loved by Owen Jones,
1. He fucked off from Britain 60 years ago 2. He's been living in Canada in some style all that time 3. Since entering his last years his Twitter account has actually been run by his son 4. Recently that son set up a fundraiser, which made $74,000 for no obvious reason except "continuing Harry's legacy" - which might be OK, but.... 5. Since his dad's very recent death the son has now set up ANOTHER crowdsourcing fundraiser, apparently to "clear our debts", and this new one has already made $10,000. The son refuses to tell anyone what happened to the first $74k, or why he really needs another $100,000, and anyone that asks him on Twitter gets immediately blocked.
So this old man died. It is sad. But another leftwing online hero turns out to be a total fraud, and possibly criminally swindling to boot. Imagine my surprise.
But which one of the PB expat Brexiters was he?
You'll love this - his account is passionately Remain. All the way from Ontario. lol.
Saw a chap reading the book on the train today.
Somehow, all the above doesn’t surprise me at all. All part of the SJW-Journalism-Social Media complex...
It is the strangest phenomenon. Intelligent people totally swindled by obvious scammers, and manipulative gits, just because they say things that are quite nice about the NHS.
It's sublimated religiosity, I think. For millions of people, God has died and been replaced by lefty social media fakery, and/or Jeremy Corbyn. The only difference is that there is more hard evidence for the existence of God than there is for the well-meaning good sense of Jeremy Corbyn and his online army.
Bit like Brexit, then.
No.
“... the Godless left and the Godless right have found new gods....”
I just discovered the truth behind the Twitter account @Harryslaststand - a nonagenarian left wing war hero, fiercely supportive of the NHS, and much loved by Owen Jones,
So this old man died. It is sad. But another leftwing online hero turns out to be a total fraud, and possibly criminally swindling to boot. Imagine my surprise.
But which one of the PB expat Brexiters was he?
You'll love this - his account is passionately Remain. All the way from Ontario. lol.
Saw a chap reading the book on the train today.
Somehow, all the above doesn’t surprise me at all. All part of the SJW-Journalism-Social Media complex...
It is the strangest phenomenon. Intelligent people totally swindled by obvious scammers, and manipulative gits, just because they say things that are quite nice about the NHS.
It's sublimated religiosity, I think. For millions of people, God has died and been replaced by lefty social media fakery, and/or Jeremy Corbyn. The only difference is that there is more hard evidence for the existence of God than there is for the well-meaning good sense of Jeremy Corbyn and his online army.
You may be on to summat there. However, can the same not be said for unquestioning worship of the "invisible hand", and its high priestess Ayn Rand? Not to mention the huge devotion paid to Trump by those with a sketchy knowledge of Christianity? It is amusing to see the outrage of the Right at Social Media. Now you know how we have felt all our life with daily newspapers forcing their opinions on us and driving the news agenda.
Oh, I entirely agree. The Godless left and the Godless right have found new gods, and both are equally depressing and delusional.
The only difference is that the Lefties have an extra veneer of ugly moral snobbery, "I am better than you because I really CARE" etc etc
Righties have just as much moral snobbery "I am better than you because I am a patriot etc etc"
Good point @dixiedean, It is interesting that the new media have reversed the political tilt that we have had for decades from the right wing press barons.
Happy Christmas, and wishing you all a Brexit free celebration tommorow...
I had a video call with my son and his wife in Vancouver this evening. My daughter in law promotes British Columbia throughout asia and china and there is a real crisis now for Canada with the arrest and detention of Meng Wanzhou, awaiting extradition to US
China have cancelled all promotion of BC and have detained 2 Canadians in tit for tat and my daughter in law is not permitted entry to China. Indeed the Canadian government advice to its citizens in that China is 'high risk' for travel.
It seems the extradition hearing for Wanzhou is not before February and Canada are taking a big hit for being an ally of the US and caught up with Trumps attack on Wanzhou's Iran links
Canada has rightly responded to an extradition attempt. I don’t know how strong the case is but presumably there is enough evidence to warrant the arrest
China has responded by arresting innocent parties and shutting down legitimate economic activity
It’s not Trump who is causing the problem
I am not wrong on China stopping the promotion of BC, or that they have detained two Canadians, or that my daughter in law's frequent trips to China are now stopped or that visiting China for Canadians is 'high risk'
I’m challenging your conclusion (“trump is causing economic carnage worldwide”) not your fact pattern. Your issue is with what China is doing
Doesn't look like the harvest rotted in the fields does it
It also makes me wonder about all the claims about foodbanks.
The data on food banks is produced by Trussell Trust which is a campaigning organisation
Food banks are a self perpetuating monster that crowd out other local good causes. The left fall over tyensekces as everybody statistic of their growth allows them to self pleasure in poverty p*rn.
Things suddenly become the next biggest thing. Period poverty is a case in point. If the issue was put as ”this is a problem that’s always existed. Sometimes young girls are too embarrassed to ask for money to buy them or mum has spun*ked all the bennies on smack and they can’t afford the £2 a month needed, and it’s better to make them discreetly available because while few are affected by it, it would be better to have this available” But no. It’s presented as “this is a disgrace, fifth largest economy in the world and there some girls too poor to buy tampons. The evil tories and their austerity has caused this monstrous state of affairs”
This just gets the backs up of those who would be willing to support.
(Although, he's scratching his head how to reconcile all the letters he's received - from those asking for Remain and those asking for Brexit for Christmas......he's thinking he'll just give you all a jigsaw instead.)
Someone at SKY has had fun with their scheduling. From midnight on SKY Witness, you can watch The Killer Clown: Word's Most Evil Killers..... "Wayne Gacy was a well liked member of his community who secretly killed 33 boys and young men."
I just discovered the truth behind the Twitter account @Harryslaststand - a nonagenarian left wing war hero, fiercely supportive of the NHS, and much loved by Owen Jones,
1. He fucked off from Britain 60 years ago 2. He's been living in Canada in some style all that time 3. Since entering his last years his Twitter account has actually been run by his son 4. Recently that son set up a fundraiser, which made $74,000 for no obvious reason except "continuing Harry's legacy" - which might be OK, but.... 5. Since his dad's very recent death the son has now set up ANOTHER crowdsourcing fundraiser, apparently to "clear our debts", and this new one has already made $10,000. The son refuses to tell anyone what happened to the first $74k, or why he really needs another $100,000, and anyone that asks him on Twitter gets immediately blocked.
So this old man died. It is sad. But another leftwing online hero turns out to be a total fraud, and possibly criminally swindling to boot. Imagine my surprise.
Don't know about 3-5. 1 and 2 were well known at the time. Least ways I was aware of it.
The whole account is now a grotesque fraud. Shameful.
What I particularly love is his tweet from his big house in Ontario, today, that in honour of his Dad.... he's going to be "eating pheasant".
Meanwhile he wants you to give him $100,000 just because he's Harry's son and they have "debts". And some poor deluded fools are actually handing over cash. It's hideous to watch.
Lol like a peacenik Tommy Robinson with the ... Donations.
On topic, the change in recent days, I think, is that there is a greater probability of the Republicans putting up another candidate. Trump appears to have crossed a line with the Republican hierarchy with the Syria/Mattis business. The shutdown isn't being well received either.
Also it looks like the (somewhat artificially boosted) economy is turning. That was going to be his Trump card.
I just discovered the truth behind the Twitter account @Harryslaststand - a nonagenarian left wing war hero, fiercely supportive of the NHS, and much loved by Owen Jones,
1. He fucked off from Britain 60 years ago 2. He's been living in Canada in some style all that time 3. Since entering his last years his Twitter account has actually been run by his son 4. Recently that son set up a fundraiser, which made $74,000 for no obvious reason except "continuing Harry's legacy" - which might be OK, but.... 5. Since his dad's very recent death the son has now set up ANOTHER crowdsourcing fundraiser, apparently to "clear our debts", and this new one has already made $10,000. The son refuses to tell anyone what happened to the first $74k, or why he really needs another $100,000, and anyone that asks him on Twitter gets immediately blocked.
So this old man died. It is sad. But another leftwing online hero turns out to be a total fraud, and possibly criminally swindling to boot. Imagine my surprise.
I don't know much beyond what you set out here, but on its face it looks like Harry Smith is exploited by his son rather than a fraud himself. Which would itself be sad thing.
On topic, the change in recent days, I think, is that there is a greater probability of the Republicans putting up another candidate. Trump appears to have crossed a line with the Republican hierarchy with the Syria/Mattis business. The shutdown isn't being well received either.
Also it looks like the (somewhat artificially boosted) economy is turning. That was going to be his Trump card.
The Republican hierarchy couldn't stop him before, why would they be able to stop him now? His base still love him, even if his cabinet removed him from office he'd still win the primary...
(Although, he's scratching his head how to reconcile all the letters he's received - from those asking for Remain and those asking for Brexit for Christmas......he's thinking he'll just give you all a jigsaw instead.)
Comments
I notice Tesco was overflowing with 2.5kg bags of British potatoes at 29p this evening:
https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/292285699
with similar offers on for other other produce and other supermarkets, for example 1kg of British carrots for 20p at ASDA:
https://groceries.asda.com/product/carrots-root-vegetables/asda-growers-selection-carrots/30240
Doesn't look like the harvest rotted in the fields does it
It also makes me wonder about all the claims about foodbanks.
Much of the UK's heavy industry 'rust belt' has far more jobs now than a century ago:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45952532
The Tories were still ahead in December 1987, prior to that the Wilson, Heath and Callaghan governments all lost power before reaching 8 1/2 years so actually since the Macmillan government only one other government in the last 50 years has been ahead in the polls after 8 1/2 years in power
It wasn't so many years ago that supermarkets looked as if they'd been pillaged on Christmas Eve.
Fresh food really is cheap - meanwhile the most deprived areas are filled with grotty takeaways:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/29/poorer-areas-of-england-have-more-fast-food-shops-figures-show
I really think for many people deprivation is more a state of mind rather than actual financial means.
China have cancelled all promotion of BC and have detained 2 Canadians in tit for tat and my daughter in law is not permitted entry to China. Indeed the Canadian government advice to its citizens in that China is 'high risk' for travel.
It seems the extradition hearing for Wanzhou is not before February and Canada are taking a big hit for being an ally of the US and caught up with Trumps attack on Wanzhou's Iran links
Trump is causing economic carnage worldwide
I guess the truly destitute would need the abilty to get to the supermarket, the pence to buy tatties & carrots and the means to cook them. The food bank I contribute to is currently asking for men's toiletries, tinned vegetables, UHT milk, breakfast cereals & cartons of juice.
That government of course was facing a Leader of the Opposition in Kinnock who, like Corbyn, had lost the previous general election but stayed on as leader having done better than expected after a good campaign
Edit: Sorry I mis-read your post but it's still two governments prior to this one have lasted this long and had a poll lead in the past 50 years.
https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1076796149959405569
Look at voting patterns in the OC
If we are considering the fate of governments that made it to the milestone, depending on their position in the polls, I suggest that your base excludes those that didn't survive that long.
Things are a bit more complicated now with the second re-election coming in the seventh year of government.
So in some ways Christmas 2018 should be compared with Christmas 1988 and Christmas 2006 electorally - both of which saw the government on a steady downward path.
Boom boom
It also mentions where jobs have been created in the UK 'rustbelt' ie the North, the Midlands and Wales they have tended to be in lower paid warehouse and distribution centres and call centres rather than say the knowledge economy higher paid jobs like finance, advertising and marketing and tech concentrated in big cities with major universities like London and Manchester
https://stephenfollows.com/using-data-to-determine-if-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/
“Future generations will read in wonder that Die Hard was ever thought not to be a Christmas movie and articles such as the one you’re reading now will be seen as nothing but a massive waste of everyone’s time. Imagine that!”
It is all part of the complex issues around social exclusion. It is why that even when corrected for social class, obesity predicts Brexit voting.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
I did wonder if the one out Trump had was to go to war against somebody close to the election and get the voters enthused about that; When Trump bombed runways in Syria he got a very warm reception from the Very Sensible punditry, and (IIRC) a reasonable polling boost. But since he's doing the whole "promises made, promises kept" thing on Syria and Afghanistan and he's already staked his credibility on the idea that he's made peace with North Korea the options for a grand patriotic war are looking a little bit complicated.
Canada has rightly responded to an extradition attempt. I don’t know how strong the case is but presumably there is enough evidence to warrant the arrest
China has responded by arresting innocent parties and shutting down legitimate economic activity
It’s not Trump who is causing the problem
Meanwhile those areas where jobs have been created also have low living costs - perhaps you might remember your comparison of home ownership levels in Cannock to those in London.
But fair point - the Conservatives were certainly well behind Labour by the 1989 local and Euro elections.
The original claim (from Mortimer, I believe) was that it is: "Absolutely remarkable for a Govt to be leading/tied in the polls after nearly 9 years in power"
This is clearly not true since the last three times a government has been in power for 8.5 years they have been ahead in the polls (sometimes only just, sometimes not for much longer) .
Nothing remarkable it at all.
Somehow, all the above doesn’t surprise me at all. All part of the SJW-Journalism-Social Media complex...
I no longer contribute to them.
I've got to get the reindeer harnessed - presents to deliver you know!
Happy Christmas everyone!
But I think there are differences between those who can't cook, those who can't afford to cook and those who can't be arsed to cook.
But I fear I'm heading towards a discussion about deserving and undeserving poor.
It is amusing to see the outrage of the Right at Social Media. Now you know how we have felt all our life with daily newspapers forcing their opinions on us and driving the news agenda.
A. Fanta Clause!
(I thank you!)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
Anyway, off to Midnight Mass and hope all PBers have a good Christmas
A very Happy Christmas to you, too.
My three younger grandchildren are all asleep having counted down daily from about 40, the number of sleeps left. Indeed my 5 year old declared this afternoon he wanted to go to bed there and then
I just want to wish everyone a happy christmas and to those less fortunate may you receive help and shelter, a warm meal and lots of hugs
Good night folks and may your God go with you
Now perhaps that's what they're like in the commuter belts but in much of Eastern England its a different story.
“Are there no prisons?” said the Spirit, turning on him for the last time with his own words. “Are there no workhouses?”
https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/brief-guides-and-explainers/an-obr-guide-to-welfare-spending/
None of which came to me.
And when I did contribute to food banks all I read was how terrible it was that food bank usage was growing.
So other organisations got the money instead.
Good point @dixiedean, It is interesting that the new media have reversed the political tilt that we have had for decades from the right wing press barons.
Happy Christmas, and wishing you all a Brexit free celebration tommorow...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46675051
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/first-time-20-years-copyrighted-works-enter-public-domain-180971016/
Things suddenly become the next biggest thing. Period poverty is a case in point. If the issue was put as ”this is a problem that’s always existed. Sometimes young girls are too embarrassed to ask for money to buy them or mum has spun*ked all the bennies on smack and they can’t afford the £2 a month needed, and it’s better to make them discreetly available because while few are affected by it, it would be better to have this available”
But no. It’s presented as “this is a disgrace, fifth largest economy in the world and there some girls too poor to buy tampons. The evil tories and their austerity has caused this monstrous state of affairs”
This just gets the backs up of those who would be willing to support.
(Although, he's scratching his head how to reconcile all the letters he's received - from those asking for Remain and those asking for Brexit for Christmas......he's thinking he'll just give you all a jigsaw instead.)
Merry Christmas, SKY.
On topic, the change in recent days, I think, is that there is a greater probability of the Republicans putting up another candidate. Trump appears to have crossed a line with the Republican hierarchy with the Syria/Mattis business. The shutdown isn't being well received either.
Also it looks like the (somewhat artificially boosted) economy is turning. That was going to be his Trump card.