As long as it includes the customs union it deals with the backstop and as it also includes the single market even the DUP could accept it as their concern is the single market elements Northern Ireland has to comply with but not GB.
In my view it would be much worse than May's Deal with full free movement and permanent Customs Union but still better than No Deal so Parliament will reject May's Deal for a worse deal though it may be fractionally better for the economy than May's Deal and much better for the economy than No Deal
I am not talking about agreement on the British side. You need to get both the EU and probably EFTA to agree.
Yes and the EU have made quite clear the Customs Union is required as the backstop for NI, EFTA would ultimately agree if the UK committed to permanent membership and obeying single market rules
Funny, as I do not recall seeing anyone link to him correcting the many people saying it did prevent no deal before the vote. If he did I retract the sarcasm.
Funny, as I do not recall seeing anyone link to him correcting the many people saying it did prevent no deal before the vote. If he did I retract the sarcasm.
Did anyone actually think it literally prevented no deal, as opposed to just making it extremely unlikely given the parliamentary arithmetic?
As long as it includes the customs union it deals with the backstop and as it also includes the single market even the DUP could accept it as their concern is the single market elements Northern Ireland has to comply with but not GB.
In my view it would be much worse than May's Deal with full free movement and permanent Customs Union but still better than No Deal so Parliament will reject May's Deal for a worse deal though it may be fractionally better for the economy than May's Deal and much better for the economy than No Deal
I am not talking about agreement on the British side. You need to get both the EU and probably EFTA to agree.
Yes and the EU have made quite clear the Customs Union is required as the backstop for NI, EFTA would ultimately agree if the UK committed to permanent membership and obeying single market rules
But there’s no guarantee the EU would agree. They don’t like the idea of the U.K. buying into all the trade and economic advantages of the EU, without buying into the political project. They are more relaxed about the smaller countries currently in the arrangement.
As long as it includes the customs union it deals with the backstop and as it also includes the single market even the DUP could accept it as their concern is the single market elements Northern Ireland has to comply with but not GB.
In my view it would be much worse than May's Deal with full free movement and permanent Customs Union but still better than No Deal so Parliament will reject May's Deal for a worse deal though it may be fractionally better for the economy than May's Deal and much better for the economy than No Deal
I am not talking about agreement on the British side. You need to get both the EU and probably EFTA to agree.
Yes and the EU have made quite clear the Customs Union is required as the backstop for NI, EFTA would ultimately agree if the UK committed to permanent membership and obeying single market rules
You seem very assured of this. Just as you have been very assured in the past that May would get her deal through. Now I would like you to be right on either of those but I think you (and I) are in for a serious disappointment. Mine will only be eased by the fact I saw it coming.
Hard Remainers and Hard Leavers alike always slam the Norway option and cherry-pick, omit key points, or even misrepresent it completely.
The key elements of EEA are:
- Membership of the Single Market - Acceptance of single market regulations (which are a subset of the EU acquis - the scale of which depends on how you measure it but is about a quarter to a fifth of the acquis) - A veto on acceptance of anything that would "infringe sovereignty" - No vote in the European Parliament and no Commissioner, but ability to shape legislation through the EEA bodies (EEA Council, EEA Joint Committee, EEA Joint Parliamentary Committee, EEA Consultative Committee) - No CAP or CFP - Outside EU Trade Policy - Outside EU Foreign and Security Policy - Outside EU Justice and Home Affairs Policies - Outside Euro and Monetary Policy - Acceptance of the Four Freedoms (albeit with an emergency brake provision, exercised by Liechtenstein on Free Movement of People since 1998 and by Iceland on Free Movement of Capital at the height of the GFC) - Schengen only by mutual agreement - Financial contribution in proportion to GDP (The Norway payment at current rates would be around £93 million per week/£4.9 billion per year for UK. This is actually more than the minimum and includes extra payments for full access to a bunch of other EU programmes
He really is incredibly dishonest about all of this. Just like Miller was (for all that I supported her court case). Why can they not just be honest and admit their aim is to stop Brexit by any means possible?
None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
This demographics rubbish comes up time and time again and is always proved to be a load of garbage.
If it had any real effect we would not have had a Tory Government since the mid 80s.
Hard Remainers and Hard Leavers alike always slam the Norway option and cherry-pick, omit key points, or even misrepresent it completely.
The key elements of EEA are:
- Membership of the Single Market - Acceptance of single market regulations (which are a subset of the EU acquis - the scale of which depends on how you measure it but is about a quarter to a fifth of the acquis) - A veto on acceptance of anything that would "infringe sovereignty" - No vote in the European Parliament and no Commissioner, but ability to shape legislation through the EEA bodies (EEA Council, EEA Joint Committee, EEA Joint Parliamentary Committee, EEA Consultative Committee) - No CAP or CFP - Outside EU Trade Policy - Outside EU Foreign and Security Policy - Outside EU Justice and Home Affairs Policies - Outside Euro and Monetary Policy - Acceptance of the Four Freedoms (albeit with an emergency brake provision, exercised by Liechtenstein on Free Movement of People since 1998 and by Iceland on Free Movement of Capital at the height of the GFC) - Schengen only by mutual agreement - Financial contribution in proportion to GDP (The Norway payment at current rates would be around £93 million per week/£4.9 billion per year for UK. This is actually more than the minimum and includes extra payments for full access to a bunch of other EU programmes
It really is the perfect option. Certainly miles better than May's deal, Remain or No Deal. It is what we should have aimed for from the start.
None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
Oh not this rubbish again!
For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wings.
Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
This Parliament won’t pass the deal, which only the executive can negotiate. A new one is required.
Indeed. The whole point about the legislature firmly taking control from a floundering and powerless executive is that no government can function as a government if it does not have the support of the House.
The scenario is there for all to see. Tory MPs voting down every measure proposed by the Tory government. Then voting confidence in the government, sustaining in office a government removed from power by their votes.
So, the government bound to avoid hard Brexit refusing to do so. An election - regardless of what the result may be - would be the ONLY solution. It is increasingly inevitable.
Not just refusing, but unable to.
Legislation means we leave on 29th March. Something else needs to be passed to prevent that.
Of course the spanner in the works is that Tory MPs can block an election, too.
Surely, after todays ruling Parliament could vote to withdraw A50, while we put our thinking caps on.
How? Even if you want to ignore the political fallout It would require primary legislation. How do you do that whilst May is still in power?
And of course it will be (rightly) be painted as reversing the Brexit vote.
You really think that the majority in Parliament care about that?
The quickest option is a simple bill repealing the EU Withdrawal Act and then send the withdrawal letter to Brussels. A weeki or should do it, certainly a month.
Needs must when the Devil drives....
I honestly wonder if our democracy could survive that. But remainers won’t care. Anything for the cause.
I agree. I voted Remain but I'm deeply disturbed by the possibility of Article 50 being revoked by parliament or a second referendum. I think backing May's deal is the by far the safest and most moral course of action.
Hard Remainers and Hard Leavers alike always slam the Norway option and cherry-pick, omit key points, or even misrepresent it completely.
The key elements of EEA are:
- Membership of the Single Market - Acceptance of single market regulations (which are a subset of the EU acquis - the scale of which depends on how you measure it but is about a quarter to a fifth of the acquis) - A veto on acceptance of anything that would "infringe sovereignty" - No vote in the European Parliament and no Commissioner, but ability to shape legislation through the EEA bodies (EEA Council, EEA Joint Committee, EEA Joint Parliamentary Committee, EEA Consultative Committee) - No CAP or CFP - Outside EU Trade Policy - Outside EU Foreign and Security Policy - Outside EU Justice and Home Affairs Policies - Outside Euro and Monetary Policy - Acceptance of the Four Freedoms (albeit with an emergency brake provision, exercised by Liechtenstein on Free Movement of People since 1998 and by Iceland on Free Movement of Capital at the height of the GFC) - Schengen only by mutual agreement - Financial contribution in proportion to GDP (The Norway payment at current rates would be around £93 million per week/£4.9 billion per year for UK. This is actually more than the minimum and includes extra payments for full access to a bunch of other EU programmes
Plus also free movement and without the Customs Union it does not solve the backstop
There was no need to laugh, it is technically true that makes her position slightly better, though still hardly good.
Given if May's Deal goes down the alternative is BINO SM+CU that could be enough on a second vote
Now that remain is very much a possibility how does May (assuming for the sake of argument she is not gone next week) entice over enough Labour MPs to see it through? She still won't have the DUP and, even optimistically, at least some number of her own MPs. In any scenario she needs mass abstentions or more than a mere handful of Lavour leavers.
Given her MPs will face the stark choice of her Deal or BINO or Remain after the passing of the Grieve amendment many will start to fall into line
As long as it includes the customs union it deals with the backstop and as it also includes the single market even the DUP could accept it as their concern is the single market elements Northern Ireland has to comply with but not GB.
In my view it would be much worse than May's Deal with full free movement and permanent Customs Union but still better than No Deal so Parliament will reject May's Deal for a worse deal though it may be fractionally better for the economy than May's Deal and much better for the economy than No Deal
I am not talking about agreement on the British side. You need to get both the EU and probably EFTA to agree.
Yes and the EU have made quite clear the Customs Union is required as the backstop for NI, EFTA would ultimately agree if the UK committed to permanent membership and obeying single market rules
But there’s no guarantee the EU would agree. They don’t like the idea of the U.K. buying into all the trade and economic advantages of the EU, without buying into the political project. They are more relaxed about the smaller countries currently in the arrangement.
Which is why the Customs Union too will also be a requirement as the backstop, Norway alone wil not be enough
As long as it includes the customs union it deals with the backstop and as it also includes the single market even the DUP could accept it as their concern is the single market elements Northern Ireland has to comply with but not GB.
In my view it would be much worse than May's Deal with full free movement and permanent Customs Union but still better than No Deal so Parliament will reject May's Deal for a worse deal though it may be fractionally better for the economy than May's Deal and much better for the economy than No Deal
I am not talking about agreement on the British side. You need to get both the EU and probably EFTA to agree.
Yes and the EU have made quite clear the Customs Union is required as the backstop for NI, EFTA would ultimately agree if the UK committed to permanent membership and obeying single market rules
You seem very assured of this. Just as you have been very assured in the past that May would get her deal through. Now I would like you to be right on either of those but I think you (and I) are in for a serious disappointment. Mine will only be eased by the fact I saw it coming.
No need for assurance it is in black and white from Barnier, no Deal without the backstop and the backstop requires the Customs Union. Even if May's Deal is rejected that fact is inescapable
None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
This demographics rubbish comes up time and time again and is always proved to be a load of garbage.
If it had any real effect we would not have had a Tory Government since the mid 80s.
Except that the drift to the right as you get older is well established. Support for the EU isn't an especially right or left thing. And I for one have drifted the other way.
Comments
The key elements of EEA are:
- Membership of the Single Market
- Acceptance of single market regulations (which are a subset of the EU acquis - the scale of which depends on how you measure it but is about a quarter to a fifth of the acquis)
- A veto on acceptance of anything that would "infringe sovereignty"
- No vote in the European Parliament and no Commissioner, but ability to shape legislation through the EEA bodies (EEA Council, EEA Joint Committee, EEA Joint Parliamentary Committee, EEA Consultative Committee)
- No CAP or CFP
- Outside EU Trade Policy
- Outside EU Foreign and Security Policy
- Outside EU Justice and Home Affairs Policies
- Outside Euro and Monetary Policy
- Acceptance of the Four Freedoms (albeit with an emergency brake provision, exercised by Liechtenstein on Free Movement of People since 1998 and by Iceland on Free Movement of Capital at the height of the GFC)
- Schengen only by mutual agreement
- Financial contribution in proportion to GDP (The Norway payment at current rates would be around £93 million per week/£4.9 billion per year for UK. This is actually more than the minimum and includes extra payments for full access to a bunch of other EU programmes
He was on the news earlier and was vritally in tears.
Not. Prime Minister. Material.
If it had any real effect we would not have had a Tory Government since the mid 80s.
NEW THREAD
For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wings.
Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!