It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.
And Sir Keir boosts his leadership chances with every passing day.
Yes, he does. If we're ever in the mood to elect a leader with no very clear ideological profile who is simply competent and serious, he's in pole position.
If Sir Keir were leader you'd be 25 points ahead. And that's not even a particularly strong endorsement of Sir Keir, any sensible figure would do.
Not sure about that.
Starmer might pick up a few middle class LD and Tory Remainers but he would also lose some working class Labour Leave voters to UKIP or even the Tories
In any case as long as Corbyn wants to stay leader the membership will likely still back him, short of outright Labour defeat at the next general election
What price the DUP supporting Labours Customs Union plan ?
You mean the only deal with a Parliamentary majority that also meets the DUP Red Lines
And the ever repeatable question - if the DUP could go into government with Martin McGuinness, why would Corbyn be a step too far as keeps being claimed?
What price the DUP supporting Labours Customs Union plan ?
You mean the only deal with a Parliamentary majority that also meets the DUP Red Lines
And the ever repeatable question - if the DUP could go into government with Martin McGuinness, why would Corbyn be a step too far as keeps being claimed?
What price the DUP supporting Labours Customs Union plan ?
You mean the only deal with a Parliamentary majority that also meets the DUP Red Lines
And the ever repeatable question - if the DUP could go into government with Martin McGuinness, why would Corbyn be a step too far as keeps being claimed?
The government's argument that current legal advice should be withheld because future legal advice might contain commercial or national security sensibilities is cretinous.
Why not withhold the advice only when it *does*, rather than when it *doesn't*.
Better still, why not provide a mechanism for partially redacting such advice so this stupid goddamn situation never happens again.
There is a mechanism - they can show the advice to the opposition leaders under Privy Council terms, and agree any redaction necessary.
Of course, that does rather assume that the leader of the opposition isn't a terrorist-supporting extremist who sides with our enemies.
Idiotic talk like that is why your party is in this mess.
Your leader couldn't debate a 5 year old child
That may be, but at least she has never invited terrorists into parliament to rub the noses of victims in the horrors of a recent bombing and attempt to destroy an elected government.
Point taken. Labour cocked up royally by allowing Corbyn's trojan horse to come in and take over. Starmer or Cooper would be excellent leaders. But I'm still going to vote for Corbyn's Labour because I want a government that believes in compassion and opportunity.
What price the DUP supporting Labours Customs Union plan ?
You mean the only deal with a Parliamentary majority that also meets the DUP Red Lines
And the ever repeatable question - if the DUP could go into government with Martin McGuinness, why would Corbyn be a step too far as keeps being claimed?
It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.
And Sir Keir boosts his leadership chances with every passing day.
Yes, he does. If we're ever in the mood to elect a leader with no very clear ideological profile who is simply competent and serious, he's in pole position.
If Sir Keir were leader you'd be 25 points ahead. And that's not even a particularly strong endorsement of Sir Keir, any sensible figure would do.
Macron
What about Macron? France has a very different political culture compared to the UK.
I am sure Macron would be delighted to do what even Napoleon failed to and add leadership of the UK to leadership of France
What price the DUP supporting Labours Customs Union plan ?
You mean the only deal with a Parliamentary majority that also meets the DUP Red Lines
And the ever repeatable question - if the DUP could go into government with Martin McGuinness, why would Corbyn be a step too far as keeps being claimed?
It would all depend what they were offered.
Corbyn plans to solve the problem via the repeal of The Government of Ireland Act 1914.
I'm looking forward to the analysis of today in terms of Parliamentary sovereignty where people earnestly explain that the executive is sovereign on governmental matters.
It may seem like an obvious point, but the Govt serves at the whim of Parliament. If Parliament doesn’t like the Govt they have the power to change the Govt. Isn’t what Grieve’s amendment is doing in effect abandoning the concept of Executive Govt?
It may seem like an obvious point, but the Govt serves at the whim of Parliament. If Parliament doesn’t like the Govt they have the power to change the Govt. Isn’t what Grieve’s amendment is doing in effect abandoning the concept of Executive Govt?
No, it's simply returning to Parliament power it stupidly denuded itself of last year. Parliament will have no more powers now than before Brexit, but at least now it won't have fewer.
Assuming that May's plan is defeated, this means: (1) May does have to bring proposals as otherwise we have a superhard Brexit (planes grounded and everything) (2) Parliament has to decide what it actually wants. Options on the table seem to be New Referendum or Go Away and Renegotiate, the latter possibly with some steer like "accepting a customs union" or "analogous with Norway". Some hard thinking all round needed. (3) The ERG and May loyalists might vote against all proposals, in the hope that May can say that Parliament has failed to agree any alternative so May's plan needs to be reconsidered. Or the ERG could roll the dice on a Remain vs hard Brexit referendum.
Betting: Ladbrokes have the deal approved on 11 December lengthening from 5 to 5.5, second referendum odds unchanged (2.25 for, 1.57 against, both before end 2019).
Assuming that May's plan is defeated, this means: (1) May does have to bring proposals as otherwise we have a superhard Brexit (planes grounded and everything) (2) Parliament has to decide what it actually wants. Options on the table seem to be New Referendum or Go Away and Renegotiate, the latter possibly with some steer like "accepting a customs union" or "analogous with Norway". Some hard thinking all round needed. (3) The ERG and May loyalists might vote against all proposals, in the hope that May can say that Parliament has failed to agree any alternative so May's plan needs to be reconsidered. Or the ERG could roll the dice on a Remain vs hard Brexit referendum.
What the hell does “accepting a customs union” and “analogous with Norway mean”? (assuming you meant them to be contradictory? ) Permanent payments to the EU? No voting rights in perpetuity? Complete freedom of movement?
I’m not sure enough MPs even understand the various issues to come to a consensus view on them.
Assuming that May's plan is defeated, this means: (1) May does have to bring proposals as otherwise we have a superhard Brexit (planes grounded and everything) (2) Parliament has to decide what it actually wants. Options on the table seem to be New Referendum or Go Away and Renegotiate, the latter possibly with some steer like "accepting a customs union" or "analogous with Norway". Some hard thinking all round needed. (3) The ERG and May loyalists might vote against all proposals, in the hope that May can say that Parliament has failed to agree any alternative so May's plan needs to be reconsidered. Or the ERG could roll the dice on a Remain vs hard Brexit referendum.
I think 3 would only work if May's deal is not massively defeated and thus has a reasonable chance when reconsidered and this incentive for blockers to prevent other options. Since it is going to be smashed out of the park, I think it stops at 2. Tories need to move toward a position Labour can accept, or enough in Labour can accept. Only chance of getting something through without conceding a referendum or a GE.
I just don't see a flaw in that. Plus it could be done very quickly because there would be no need to have a campaign period. Just ask the people. Ask them.
Or alternatively, with the crisis approaching and the new EU ruling, if May's Deal fails, just rescind Brexit. It is the fastest option. No need for all the months of prep that would be needed for a referendum.
There may well be fall-out, but that will be for later.
While you are safely hiding in Ireland away from the chaos.
Assuming that May's plan is defeated, this means: (1) May does have to bring proposals as otherwise we have a superhard Brexit (planes grounded and everything) (2) Parliament has to decide what it actually wants. Options on the table seem to be New Referendum or Go Away and Renegotiate, the latter possibly with some steer like "accepting a customs union" or "analogous with Norway". Some hard thinking all round needed. (3) The ERG and May loyalists might vote against all proposals, in the hope that May can say that Parliament has failed to agree any alternative so May's plan needs to be reconsidered. Or the ERG could roll the dice on a Remain vs hard Brexit referendum.
What the hell does “accepting a customs union” and “analogous with Norway mean”? (assuming you meant them to be contradictory? ) Permanent payments to the EU? No voting rights in perpetuity? Complete freedom of movement?
I’m not sure enough MPs even understand the various issues to come to a consensus view on them.
Quite. 'Norway' is a considerably harder (Save for freedom of movement) Brexit than that proposed by May.
UKIP are doing an ERG on a bigger, meaner scale - given what May has been proposing UKIP should have been tempting for so many Tories, but they've, well, gone in a different direction.
Is Her Majesty going to march into the Commons and demand recalcitrant members be pointed out to her? It should be easier than when Charles I did it, he was only looking for 5, we have about 600.
Assuming that May's plan is defeated, this means: (1) May does have to bring proposals as otherwise we have a superhard Brexit (planes grounded and everything) (2) Parliament has to decide what it actually wants. Options on the table seem to be New Referendum or Go Away and Renegotiate, the latter possibly with some steer like "accepting a customs union" or "analogous with Norway". Some hard thinking all round needed. (3) The ERG and May loyalists might vote against all proposals, in the hope that May can say that Parliament has failed to agree any alternative so May's plan needs to be reconsidered. Or the ERG could roll the dice on a Remain vs hard Brexit referendum.
I think 3 would only work if May's deal is not massively defeated and thus has a reasonable chance when reconsidered and this incentive for blockers to prevent other options. Since it is going to be smashed out of the park, I think it stops at 2. Tories need to move toward a position Labour can accept, or enough in Labour can accept. Only chance of getting something through without conceding a referendum or a GE.
Labour’s position seems to be to replace the backstop with a permanent customs union. I’m not so sure the EU actually will go for that, however assuming they did i’m sure Labour would the oppose it for being the wrong type of customs union - ie their unicorn one which allows them to go off negotiating trade deals with the rest of the world.
So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?
Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
Interesting. There's actually space for a pragmatic, moderate euro-sceptic party, closer to the centre than UKIP or the ERG. I wonder if Nigel is planning to fill that gap. It would certainly make the likes of Rees-Mogg, who thought prancing after him to the extremes was a good idea, look silly.
MPs will not let ERG get No Deal on the ballot paper.
If it's a 2nd Referendum, it'll be Remain vs May's Deal.
No reason for MPs to risk it.
I cannot see Mrs May's deal being on the ballot if it has been defeated by 150+ votes in Parliament.
Nor I. I think the plan might have been to include it but such a loss makes it impossible. But unless the Commons is willing to just switch to Remain and want a referendum as cover, it has to be up against something. Do they dare risk it be Remain vs no deal? Perhaps best to go remain vs may's deal just in case the public are so foolish as to pick no deal?
If the Remainers try to take control of the negotiations, especially if start pushing for “solutions” that retain FoM, I suspect a lot of Labour MPs will start getting jittery about the whole thing
MPs will not let ERG get No Deal on the ballot paper.
If it's a 2nd Referendum, it'll be Remain vs May's Deal.
No reason for MPs to risk it.
I cannot see Mrs May's deal being on the ballot if it has been defeated by 150+ votes in Parliament.
I can - because some Leave option will have to be on ballot paper.
If No Deal is ruled out, then the only remaining credible option would be May's Deal (or May's Deal slightly revised after further negotiations with EU).
So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?
Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.
Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
I just don't see a flaw in that. Plus it could be done very quickly because there would be no need to have a campaign period. Just ask the people. Ask them.
Or alternatively, with the crisis approaching and the new EU ruling, if May's Deal fails, just rescind Brexit. It is the fastest option. No need for all the months of prep that would be needed for a referendum.
There may well be fall-out, but that will be for later.
While you are safely hiding in Ireland away from the chaos.
So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?
Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.
Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
That's why I said 'or whatever' since it's mostly just about which unicorn solution she might announce.
MPs will not let ERG get No Deal on the ballot paper.
If it's a 2nd Referendum, it'll be Remain vs May's Deal.
No reason for MPs to risk it.
I cannot see Mrs May's deal being on the ballot if it has been defeated by 150+ votes in Parliament.
Nor I. I think the plan might have been to include it but such a loss makes it impossible. But unless the Commons is willing to just switch to Remain and want a referendum as cover, it has to be up against something. Do they dare risk it be Remain vs no deal? Perhaps best to go remain vs may's deal just in case the public are so foolish as to pick no deal?
Precisely - 400+ MPs will not risk No Deal.
So by default it's going to end up Remain vs May's Deal.
And despite the sense of chaos today, May's Deal still has an excellent chance of winning and thus being the final outcome.
May's deal is stone dead even though we're less than an hour into a 5 day "debate" No Deal Brexit is stone dead following the Grieve amendment The government folding its arms and saying "shan't" to MPs is stone dead having been found in contempt Government authority itself is dead.
Which is great. Take Back Control restores (apparently) sovereignty to Parliament. Who have binned off the deal, not doing a deal, and the notion of the government saying screw you then.
Watch and learn boys and girls. When you elect your MP, you elect someone with actual power.
Now DG's amendment has been accepted it's between the Norway option and a second referendum.
Rejoice!
There is a majority in the house to take us out the customs union ?
Well, the last 6 times it has been brought to a vote, there have been
MPs also voted to trigger A50 yet some will not countenance any form of leave, and others seemed surprised no deal was a possibility and have been whining about it for ages, so they might have forgotten they did that.
May's deal is stone dead even though we're less than an hour into a 5 day "debate" No Deal Brexit is stone dead following the Grieve amendment The government folding its arms and saying "shan't" to MPs is stone dead having been found in contempt Government authority itself is dead.
Which is great. Take Back Control restores (apparently) sovereignty to Parliament. Who have binned off the deal, not doing a deal, and the notion of the government saying screw you then.
Watch and learn boys and girls. When you elect your MP, you elect someone with actual power.
I don't entirely disagree, but I cannot say I'm much of fan of using the 'take back control' 'restore sovereignty' argument when the government is defeated in these matters, since parliament will have been exercising control if the vote had gone the other way as well.
May's deal is stone dead even though we're less than an hour into a 5 day "debate" No Deal Brexit is stone dead following the Grieve amendment The government folding its arms and saying "shan't" to MPs is stone dead having been found in contempt Government authority itself is dead.
Which is great. Take Back Control restores (apparently) sovereignty to Parliament. Who have binned off the deal, not doing a deal, and the notion of the government saying screw you then.
Watch and learn boys and girls. When you elect your MP, you elect someone with actual power.
There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.
It'll be good for the public in the long run. They cannot keep pretending their share fundamental values with one another and these are just minor party faction differences. Labour should have learned the same thing, but in fairness to him Corbyn beat his opponents into submission and now they only show up to shake their heads about anti-semitism and then kowtow to him on most other things.
I'm looking forward to the analysis of today in terms of Parliamentary sovereignty where people earnestly explain that the executive is sovereign on governmental matters.
Even though this all makes Brexit less likely I am pleased with these two results. Any argument about negotiation by Parliament being a bad idea (which might at least have had some measure of validity) was ended once the Deal was agreed. From now on it should be Parliament not the Executive that have the final say on these things.
That said they should also be prepared for the consequences if they betray the electorate.
As an aside I still don't see how they get around the deadline issue. If the Government simply chooses not to bring any further legislation forward, how in practice do Parliament force No Deal off the table?
Comments
Starmer might pick up a few middle class LD and Tory Remainers but he would also lose some working class Labour Leave voters to UKIP or even the Tories
In any case as long as Corbyn wants to stay leader the membership will likely still back him, short of outright Labour defeat at the next general election
McDonnell's recent comments come to mind.
Brexit is floating away for ERG
Notional Maj with DUP = 13
IF 16 rebels, Govt loses by 13 - 32 = lose by 19
Actual loss = 22
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1070011564714008578
Rejoice!
This is how the world ends.
(1) May does have to bring proposals as otherwise we have a superhard Brexit (planes grounded and everything)
(2) Parliament has to decide what it actually wants. Options on the table seem to be New Referendum or Go Away and Renegotiate, the latter possibly with some steer like "accepting a customs union" or "analogous with Norway". Some hard thinking all round needed.
(3) The ERG and May loyalists might vote against all proposals, in the hope that May can say that Parliament has failed to agree any alternative so May's plan needs to be reconsidered. Or the ERG could roll the dice on a Remain vs hard Brexit referendum.
Norway my first choice as it avoids a nasty referendum, but in the end I have no problem with remain now
https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1070013808654147584
I’m not sure enough MPs even understand the various issues to come to a consensus view on them.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1070015062973341697
If it's a 2nd Referendum, it'll be Remain vs May's Deal.
No reason for MPs to risk it.
I have consistently supported TM deal and now Norway if it is available but remain it is if these fall
If No Deal is ruled out, then the only remaining credible option would be May's Deal (or May's Deal slightly revised after further negotiations with EU).
Although slight difference the government won the vote that day.
Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
Not ...
So by default it's going to end up Remain vs May's Deal.
And despite the sense of chaos today, May's Deal still has an excellent chance of winning and thus being the final outcome.
No Deal Brexit is stone dead following the Grieve amendment
The government folding its arms and saying "shan't" to MPs is stone dead having been found in contempt
Government authority itself is dead.
Which is great. Take Back Control restores (apparently) sovereignty to Parliament. Who have binned off the deal, not doing a deal, and the notion of the government saying screw you then.
Watch and learn boys and girls. When you elect your MP, you elect someone with actual power.
The other side of the party have seen how successful rebellions have been.
Thank you ERG.
There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.
That said they should also be prepared for the consequences if they betray the electorate.
As an aside I still don't see how they get around the deadline issue. If the Government simply chooses not to bring any further legislation forward, how in practice do Parliament force No Deal off the table?