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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Regretfully I can see the Tory party splitting.

    There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.

    A split in the Conservative Party might be the least of our worries...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
    But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.

    Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
    That's why I said 'or whatever' since it's mostly just about which unicorn solution she might announce.
    Well, Norway+ would require re-opening the withdrawal agreement to make the CU permanent and remove the most troubling aspects of the backstop. Which, we have been told is Completely Impossible(tm).

    Until next week when it is not.
  • Yvette lays down the smackdown.

    Imagine someone intelligent as Labour leader right now.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    Assuming that May's plan is defeated, this means:
    (1) May does have to bring proposals as otherwise we have a superhard Brexit (planes grounded and everything)
    (2) Parliament has to decide what it actually wants. Options on the table seem to be New Referendum or Go Away and Renegotiate, the latter possibly with some steer like "accepting a customs union" or "analogous with Norway". Some hard thinking all round needed.
    (3) The ERG and May loyalists might vote against all proposals, in the hope that May can say that Parliament has failed to agree any alternative so May's plan needs to be reconsidered. Or the ERG could roll the dice on a Remain vs hard Brexit referendum.

    What the hell does “accepting a customs union” and “analogous with Norway mean”? (assuming you meant them to be contradictory? ) Permanent payments to the EU? No voting rights in perpetuity? Complete freedom of movement?

    I’m not sure enough MPs even understand the various issues to come to a consensus view on them.
    Quite. 'Norway' is a considerably harder (Save for freedom of movement) Brexit than that proposed by May.
    You surely mean softer ie least unlike what we have at the moment....

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/28/the-norway-option-what-is-it-and-what-does-it-mean-for-britain
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Chris_A said:

    Regretfully I can see the Tory party splitting.

    There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.

    Hurrah.
    The Tory party has already split. Splat. Splutted.

    Dominic Grieve and Jacob Rees-Mogg aren't in the same party in any way that matters at this point.
  • Elsewhere

    Senators have emerged from a classified briefing by CIA director, Gina Haspel, saying they are certain that the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered the murder of Washington Post columnist, Jamal Khashoggi.

    “If the crown prince went in front of a jury he would be convicted in thirty minutes,” Bob Corker, the Republican chair of the Senate foreign relations committee told journalists immediately after the Haspel meeting.

    A handful of leading senators from both parties attended the secure briefing from Haspel, who flew to Turkey to hear tapes of the 2 October killing from Turkish intelligence intercepts.

    The senators were not allow to disclose details of what they were told, but their reaction reinforced reports that the CIA had accumulated substantial evidence that the crown prince was behind the murder.

    The Trump administration has said that there is no “direct evidence” of the prince’s culpability, with the defence secretary James Mattis, insisting there was no “smoking gun”.

    After Tuesday’s Haspel briefing, Republican senator Lindsey Graham said: “There’s not a smoking gun, there’s a smoking saw

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/04/jamal-khashoggi-saudi-crown-prince-senators-cia-briefing?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Yvette lays down the smackdown.

    I am not a fan but I think she has read the mood correctly and MP's on both sides think May is coming out with too much perfuming of the truth.
  • Yvette lays down the smackdown.

    LIAR! She shouts.
    You're not calling her a liar are you, asks Bercow.
    No, I'm just requesting that she starts telling us the truth says Cooper
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Chris_A said:

    Regretfully I can see the Tory party splitting.

    There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.

    Hurrah.
    The Tory party has already split. Splat. Splutted.

    Dominic Grieve and Jacob Rees-Mogg aren't in the same party in any way that matters at this point.
    and T May is in a totally different party as well.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
    But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.

    Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
    That's why I said 'or whatever' since it's mostly just about which unicorn solution she might announce.
    Well, Norway+ would require re-opening the withdrawal agreement to make the CU permanent and remove the most troubling aspects of the backstop. Which, we have been told is Completely Impossible(tm).

    Until next week when it is not.
    What are “the most troubling aspects of the backstop” other than the argument that it might allow the EU to prevent us leaving the customs union?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited December 2018

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
    But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.

    Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
    That's why I said 'or whatever' since it's mostly just about which unicorn solution she might announce.
    Well, Norway+ would require re-opening the withdrawal agreement to make the CU permanent and remove the most troubling aspects of the backstop. Which, we have been told is Completely Impossible(tm).

    Until next week when it is not.
    Norway+ Customs Union is now the most likely Brexit outcome if May's Deal is rejected and Parliament takes over.

    Though as it is EU in all but name bar leaving the CFP with full free movement and the UK unable to do free trade deals most Leave voters will be furious and UKIP or a new Farage/Bannon party will probably be on 20 to 25%+ of the vote within 6 months
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    edited December 2018
    So the Adv Gen says we can revoke Art 50 unilateraly ( which I find astonishing)
    The government is in contempt and has to publish the legal advice which will probably show that May has been lying about the consequences of her deal.
    The Grieve amendment has been passed which is a fairly heavy round into the head of the dodo ( already dead) of May’s deal.

    I think strategic planning for this government is getting to Friday. Probably over ambitious too.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018

    Chris_A said:

    Regretfully I can see the Tory party splitting.

    There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.

    Hurrah.
    The Tory party has already split. Splat. Splutted.

    Dominic Grieve and Jacob Rees-Mogg aren't in the same party in any way that matters at this point.
    and T May is in a totally different party as well.
    Theresa May is the incredibly successful leader of a party that only exists in the carefully constructed lies they tell her in the bunker.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Regretfully I can see the Tory party splitting.

    There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.

    Labour should split too, Blairite Remainers like Umunna and Bradshaw have virtually nothing in common with Corbyn and McDonnell
  • kle4 said:

    May's deal is stone dead even though we're less than an hour into a 5 day "debate"
    No Deal Brexit is stone dead following the Grieve amendment
    The government folding its arms and saying "shan't" to MPs is stone dead having been found in contempt
    Government authority itself is dead.

    Which is great. Take Back Control restores (apparently) sovereignty to Parliament. Who have binned off the deal, not doing a deal, and the notion of the government saying screw you then.

    Watch and learn boys and girls. When you elect your MP, you elect someone with actual power.

    I don't entirely disagree, but I cannot say I'm much of fan of using the 'take back control' 'restore sovereignty' argument when the government is defeated in these matters, since parliament will have been exercising control if the vote had gone the other way as well.
    I enjoy quoting things back to put them in the correct context. To the "ugh why haven't we just said sod off to Europe and left" brigade, what is going on now is betrayal. Imagine if Dacre was still running the Daily Blackshirt the kind of headlines would be on page 1.

    If take back control meant anything it meant control by Parliament. That Parliament is smashing the deal to bits and governmental authority with it is just added value.

    On an unrelated point, I am increasingly reminded of his late father every time Hillary Benn speaks.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I think the only thing stopping the Conservative party from splitting at the moment is that none of them can work out where the split should be.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:


    Norway+ Customs Union is now the most likely Brexit outcome if May's Deal is rejected and Parliament takes over.

    Though as it is EU in all but name with full free movement and the UK unable to do free trade deals most Leave voters will be furious and UKIP will probably be on 20 to 25%+ of the vote within 6 months

    Sounds like a nearly perfect outcome.

    Drinks all round!
  • I think the only thing stopping the Conservative party from splitting at the moment is that none of them can work out where the split should be.

    The only thing stopping a split is that they hate Corbyn and fear McDonnell more than they hate each other.
  • I think the only thing stopping the Conservative party from splitting at the moment is that none of them can work out where the split should be.

    The fiscally dry and socially liberals have enough to attract Leave backing Tories.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Yvette lays down the smackdown.

    Imagine someone intelligent as Labour leader right now.
    Well it isn't Yvette Cooper.
  • kle4 said:

    May's deal is stone dead even though we're less than an hour into a 5 day "debate"
    No Deal Brexit is stone dead following the Grieve amendment
    The government folding its arms and saying "shan't" to MPs is stone dead having been found in contempt
    Government authority itself is dead.

    Which is great. Take Back Control restores (apparently) sovereignty to Parliament. Who have binned off the deal, not doing a deal, and the notion of the government saying screw you then.

    Watch and learn boys and girls. When you elect your MP, you elect someone with actual power.

    I don't entirely disagree, but I cannot say I'm much of fan of using the 'take back control' 'restore sovereignty' argument when the government is defeated in these matters, since parliament will have been exercising control if the vote had gone the other way as well.
    I enjoy quoting things back to put them in the correct context. To the "ugh why haven't we just said sod off to Europe and left" brigade, what is going on now is betrayal. Imagine if Dacre was still running the Daily Blackshirt the kind of headlines would be on page 1.

    If take back control meant anything it meant control by Parliament. That Parliament is smashing the deal to bits and governmental authority with it is just added value.

    On an unrelated point, I am increasingly reminded of his late father every time Hillary Benn speaks.
    You mean Tony Benn who fought against UK membership of the EEC/EU consistently for his whole political career? If only Hillary was 1000th of the man Tony was.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    I think the only thing stopping the Conservative party from splitting at the moment is that none of them can work out where the split should be.

    Or what channel it should be on.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    kle4 said:

    May's deal is stone dead even though we're less than an hour into a 5 day "debate"
    No Deal Brexit is stone dead following the Grieve amendment
    The government folding its arms and saying "shan't" to MPs is stone dead having been found in contempt
    Government authority itself is dead.

    Which is great. Take Back Control restores (apparently) sovereignty to Parliament. Who have binned off the deal, not doing a deal, and the notion of the government saying screw you then.

    Watch and learn boys and girls. When you elect your MP, you elect someone with actual power.

    I don't entirely disagree, but I cannot say I'm much of fan of using the 'take back control' 'restore sovereignty' argument when the government is defeated in these matters, since parliament will have been exercising control if the vote had gone the other way as well.
    I enjoy quoting things back to put them in the correct context. To the "ugh why haven't we just said sod off to Europe and left" brigade, what is going on now is betrayal. Imagine if Dacre was still running the Daily Blackshirt the kind of headlines would be on page 1.

    If take back control meant anything it meant control by Parliament. That Parliament is smashing the deal to bits and governmental authority with it is just added value.

    On an unrelated point, I am increasingly reminded of his late father every time Hillary Benn speaks.
    Not as clever or as articulate as his father but somewhat closer to the real world.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    Regretfully I can see the Tory party splitting.

    There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.

    Labour should split too, Blairite Remainers like Umunna and Bradshaw have virtually nothing in common with Corbyn and McDonnell
    Although they are, at present, putting up a united front in opposing May's deal.
  • HYUFD said:

    Regretfully I can see the Tory party splitting.

    There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.

    Labour should split too, Blairite Remainers like Umunna and Bradshaw have virtually nothing in common with Corbyn and McDonnell
    That won’t happen. They would lose union funding and they like their HoC perks and benefits more than they despise Corbyn. The only way they are going is iftheir associationsditch them
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
    But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.

    Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
    That's why I said 'or whatever' since it's mostly just about which unicorn solution she might announce.
    Well, Norway+ would require re-opening the withdrawal agreement to make the CU permanent and remove the most troubling aspects of the backstop. Which, we have been told is Completely Impossible(tm).

    Until next week when it is not.
    Norway+ Customs Union is now the most likely Brexit outcome if May's Deal is rejected and Parliament takes over.

    Though as it is EU in all but name bar leaving the CFP with full free movement and the UK unable to do free trade deals most Leave voters will be furious and UKIP or a new Farage/Bannon party will probably be on 20 to 25%+ of the vote within 6 months
    Fab. Known in the business as snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Switch on the Downing Street Xmas tree?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
    But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.

    Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
    Barnier will require Norway plus Customs Union as the Northern Ireland backstop
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    This Cox teasing by Mike lasted all but a day.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
    But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.

    Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
    That's why I said 'or whatever' since it's mostly just about which unicorn solution she might announce.
    Well, Norway+ would require re-opening the withdrawal agreement to make the CU permanent and remove the most troubling aspects of the backstop. Which, we have been told is Completely Impossible(tm).

    Until next week when it is not.
    Norway+ Customs Union is now the most likely Brexit outcome if May's Deal is rejected and Parliament takes over.

    Though as it is EU in all but name with full free movement and the UK unable to do free trade deals most Leave voters will be furious and UKIP or a new Farage/Bannon party will probably be on 20 to 25%+ of the vote within 6 months
    Does that not kind of ignore the fact that there would probably have to be a completely new EEA treaty agreed by both the EU and EFTA with unanimity from every country. That should take a couple of years at least. And who is going to support it when it is effectively the backstop in perpetuity?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Couldn’t we create our own no Deal Brexit by staying in but just not sending any MEPs to Brussels?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2018

    Regretfully I can see the Tory party splitting.

    There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.

    Just need to hope that Labour split at the same time!

    Mind you, the good news is that the previous UKIP vote is going to be split between UKIP-BNP and UKIP-FarageEgo. And maybe a few more splinters as well.
  • You mean Tony Benn who fought against UK membership of the EEC/EU consistently for his whole political career? If only Hillary was 1000th of the man Tony was.

    Hillary is his own man with his own opinions. His father defended him fiercely when it was suggested that Hillary shamed Tony. Remember that the 2nd Viscount Stansgate went on his own significant journey with an evolution of views.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited December 2018

    HYUFD said:


    Norway+ Customs Union is now the most likely Brexit outcome if May's Deal is rejected and Parliament takes over.

    Though as it is EU in all but name with full free movement and the UK unable to do free trade deals most Leave voters will be furious and UKIP will probably be on 20 to 25%+ of the vote within 6 months

    Sounds like a nearly perfect outcome.

    Drinks all round!
    Well Farage will certainly be offering them with a free pint for every punter shouting 'betrayal!' when he launches his new party
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    I'm looking forward to the analysis of today in terms of Parliamentary sovereignty where people earnestly explain that the executive is sovereign on governmental matters.

    Even though this all makes Brexit less likely I am pleased with these two results. Any argument about negotiation by Parliament being a bad idea (which might at least have had some measure of validity) was ended once the Deal was agreed. From now on it should be Parliament not the Executive that have the final say on these things.

    That said they should also be prepared for the consequences if they betray the electorate.

    As an aside I still don't see how they get around the deadline issue. If the Government simply chooses not to bring any further legislation forward, how in practice do Parliament force No Deal off the table?
    Yes it all rather gives the lie to the piles of steaming garbage that the likes of @Mortimer and @Charles have been serving up on the matter.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Back on topic, have we worked out which Conservative party Michael Cox is going to be the leader of?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    kle4 said:

    May's deal is stone dead even though we're less than an hour into a 5 day "debate"
    No Deal Brexit is stone dead following the Grieve amendment
    The government folding its arms and saying "shan't" to MPs is stone dead having been found in contempt
    Government authority itself is dead.

    Which is great. Take Back Control restores (apparently) sovereignty to Parliament. Who have binned off the deal, not doing a deal, and the notion of the government saying screw you then.

    Watch and learn boys and girls. When you elect your MP, you elect someone with actual power.

    I don't entirely disagree, but I cannot say I'm much of fan of using the 'take back control' 'restore sovereignty' argument when the government is defeated in these matters, since parliament will have been exercising control if the vote had gone the other way as well.
    I enjoy quoting things back to put them in the correct context. To the "ugh why haven't we just said sod off to Europe and left" brigade, what is going on now is betrayal. Imagine if Dacre was still running the Daily Blackshirt the kind of headlines would be on page 1.

    If take back control meant anything it meant control by Parliament. That Parliament is smashing the deal to bits and governmental authority with it is just added value.

    On an unrelated point, I am increasingly reminded of his late father every time Hillary Benn speaks.
    You mean Tony Benn who fought against UK membership of the EEC/EU consistently for his whole political career? If only Hillary was 1000th of the man Tony was.
    Ridiculous even by your recent standards
  • You mean Tony Benn who fought against UK membership of the EEC/EU consistently for his whole political career? If only Hillary was 1000th of the man Tony was.

    Hillary is his own man with his own opinions. His father defended him fiercely when it was suggested that Hillary shamed Tony. Remember that the 2nd Viscount Stansgate went on his own significant journey with an evolution of views.
    Tony was articulate, hugely intelligent and principled. None of those qualities were passed on to his son.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Regretfully I can see the Tory party splitting.

    There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.

    Labour should split too, Blairite Remainers like Umunna and Bradshaw have virtually nothing in common with Corbyn and McDonnell
    Although they are, at present, putting up a united front in opposing May's deal.
    Umunna and Bradshaw back Norway or EUref2 and Remain unlike Corbyn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Regretfully I can see the Tory party splitting.

    There's too much rancour and division over EU affairs that the gap appears unbridgeable.

    Labour should split too, Blairite Remainers like Umunna and Bradshaw have virtually nothing in common with Corbyn and McDonnell
    That won’t happen. They would lose union funding and they like their HoC perks and benefits more than they despise Corbyn. The only way they are going is iftheir associationsditch them
    Which is not impossible
  • May says the choice before parliament is clear; this deal, no deal, or no Brexit.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Does anyone know which way Nick Herbert is voting on these issues?

    Why do you ask?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Time for an election, methinks.

    This Parliament won’t pass the deal, which only the executive can negotiate. A new one is required.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
    But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.

    Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
    That's why I said 'or whatever' since it's mostly just about which unicorn solution she might announce.
    Well, Norway+ would require re-opening the withdrawal agreement to make the CU permanent and remove the most troubling aspects of the backstop. Which, we have been told is Completely Impossible(tm).

    Until next week when it is not.
    Norway+ Customs Union is now the most likely Brexit outcome if May's Deal is rejected and Parliament takes over.

    Though as it is EU in all but name bar leaving the CFP with full free movement and the UK unable to do free trade deals most Leave voters will be furious and UKIP or a new Farage/Bannon party will probably be on 20 to 25%+ of the vote within 6 months
    Fab. Known in the business as snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
    It would be a BINO Brexit that pleases Remainers more than Leavers ironically
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Anazina said:

    I'm looking forward to the analysis of today in terms of Parliamentary sovereignty where people earnestly explain that the executive is sovereign on governmental matters.

    Even though this all makes Brexit less likely I am pleased with these two results. Any argument about negotiation by Parliament being a bad idea (which might at least have had some measure of validity) was ended once the Deal was agreed. From now on it should be Parliament not the Executive that have the final say on these things.

    That said they should also be prepared for the consequences if they betray the electorate.

    As an aside I still don't see how they get around the deadline issue. If the Government simply chooses not to bring any further legislation forward, how in practice do Parliament force No Deal off the table?
    Yes it all rather gives the lie to the piles of steaming garbage that the likes of @Mortimer and @Charles have been serving up on the matter.
    I’m looking forward to your explanation of how parliament can negotiate a deal with a third party.
  • You mean Tony Benn who fought against UK membership of the EEC/EU consistently for his whole political career? If only Hillary was 1000th of the man Tony was.

    Hillary is his own man with his own opinions. His father defended him fiercely when it was suggested that Hillary shamed Tony. Remember that the 2nd Viscount Stansgate went on his own significant journey with an evolution of views.
    Tony was articulate, hugely intelligent and principled. None of those qualities were passed on to his son.
    Yet Tony Benn would vehemently disagree with you if you ever said that to him.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Norway+ Customs Union is now the most likely Brexit outcome if May's Deal is rejected and Parliament takes over.

    Though as it is EU in all but name with full free movement and the UK unable to do free trade deals most Leave voters will be furious and UKIP will probably be on 20 to 25%+ of the vote within 6 months

    Sounds like a nearly perfect outcome.

    Drinks all round!
    Well Farage will certainly be offering them with a free pint for every punter shouting 'betrayal!' when he launches his new party
    Narcissist flouncing out of UKIP to form a new party?

    Veritas is a good name for a political party. And its available...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TOPPING said:

    Does anyone know which way Nick Herbert is voting on these issues?

    Why do you ask?
    He's my MP. after asking I checked on his twitter feed......
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    I’ve been out for an hour (just post Grieve result). Can someone pls update me!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Is that list the next Tory leader's cabinet?
    That is a Tory europhile fightback on a grand scale.
  • Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    May's deal is stone dead even though we're less than an hour into a 5 day "debate"
    No Deal Brexit is stone dead following the Grieve amendment
    The government folding its arms and saying "shan't" to MPs is stone dead having been found in contempt
    Government authority itself is dead.

    Which is great. Take Back Control restores (apparently) sovereignty to Parliament. Who have binned off the deal, not doing a deal, and the notion of the government saying screw you then.

    Watch and learn boys and girls. When you elect your MP, you elect someone with actual power.

    I don't entirely disagree, but I cannot say I'm much of fan of using the 'take back control' 'restore sovereignty' argument when the government is defeated in these matters, since parliament will have been exercising control if the vote had gone the other way as well.
    I enjoy quoting things back to put them in the correct context. To the "ugh why haven't we just said sod off to Europe and left" brigade, what is going on now is betrayal. Imagine if Dacre was still running the Daily Blackshirt the kind of headlines would be on page 1.

    If take back control meant anything it meant control by Parliament. That Parliament is smashing the deal to bits and governmental authority with it is just added value.

    On an unrelated point, I am increasingly reminded of his late father every time Hillary Benn speaks.
    You mean Tony Benn who fought against UK membership of the EEC/EU consistently for his whole political career? If only Hillary was 1000th of the man Tony was.
    Ridiculous even by your recent standards
    Go back to defending misogynists Roger. Its about all you are good for.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Norway+ just seems like a dream outcome. Decouples us from ever closer union, the Euro, the CAP and CFP whilst leaving us in the single market. Resolves the NI border issue. Puts a stop to Tories endless nonsensical love affair with chlorinated American chickens.

    It crushes our ERG enemies, sees them driven before us, and to hear the lamentation of their women. Sends the gammons incandescent with rage, splitting off the reactionary half of the Tory vote to vote for Tommy Robinson's UKIP, leaving the Tories a ranting, gammon-Mogg filled rump trapped in opposition forever.

    I see zero downsides.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Cyclefree said:

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Switch on the Downing Street Xmas tree?
    Only with several fire engines on standby. A disaster seems inevitable.
  • Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    I'm looking forward to the analysis of today in terms of Parliamentary sovereignty where people earnestly explain that the executive is sovereign on governmental matters.

    Even though this all makes Brexit less likely I am pleased with these two results. Any argument about negotiation by Parliament being a bad idea (which might at least have had some measure of validity) was ended once the Deal was agreed. From now on it should be Parliament not the Executive that have the final say on these things.

    That said they should also be prepared for the consequences if they betray the electorate.

    As an aside I still don't see how they get around the deadline issue. If the Government simply chooses not to bring any further legislation forward, how in practice do Parliament force No Deal off the table?
    Yes it all rather gives the lie to the piles of steaming garbage that the likes of @Mortimer and @Charles have been serving up on the matter.
    I’m looking forward to your explanation of how parliament can negotiate a deal with a third party.
    It creates a committee of safety to negotiate with a third party.
  • TOPPING said:

    I’ve been out for an hour (just post Grieve result). Can someone pls update me!

    Parliament votes to take control if Mrs May's deal is rejected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
    But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.

    Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
    That's why I said 'or whatever' since it's mostly just about which unicorn solution she might announce.
    Well, Norway+ would require re-opening the withdrawal agreement to make the CU permanent and remove the most troubling aspects of the backstop. Which, we have been told is Completely Impossible(tm).

    Until next week when it is not.
    Norway+ Customs Union is now the most likely Brexit outcome if May's Deal is rejected and Parliament takes over.

    Though as it is EU in all but name with full free movement and the UK unable to do free trade deals most Leave voters will be furious and UKIP or a new Farage/Bannon party will probably be on 20 to 25%+ of the vote within 6 months
    Does that not kind of ignore the fact that there would probably have to be a completely new EEA treaty agreed by both the EU and EFTA with unanimity from every country. That should take a couple of years at least. And who is going to support it when it is effectively the backstop in perpetuity?
    Ultimately yes but that could be worked out in the future relationship talks, the UK would be committing to signing up to all single market and customs union rules. Bar the ERG Tories and Corbynistas and Field, Mann, Hoey and Stringer and the DUP I would expect most Labour and Tory MPs and all LD and SNP MPs and Lucas and Hermon to back SM and CU over the risk of No Deal if May's Deal is rejected
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Well, it's a televised interview, so the source isn't really relevant. Dodds is hinting that the DUP might prefer Corbyn to May, since he's solid on Good Friday and not proposing any different in Northern Ireland (because Labour doesn't need the backstop as they favour permanent customs union and trade alignment). I've no doubt that the DUP are taking that position to strengthen their negotiating hand, but it's interesting - I said last month thsat it's not clear why they'd refuse to accept Corbyn because he's friendly to Irish unity, so long as he doesn't propose to do anything about it, when they actually formed a government with Sinn Fein.
  • You mean Tony Benn who fought against UK membership of the EEC/EU consistently for his whole political career? If only Hillary was 1000th of the man Tony was.

    Hillary is his own man with his own opinions. His father defended him fiercely when it was suggested that Hillary shamed Tony. Remember that the 2nd Viscount Stansgate went on his own significant journey with an evolution of views.
    Tony was articulate, hugely intelligent and principled. None of those qualities were passed on to his son.
    Yet Tony Benn would vehemently disagree with you if you ever said that to him.
    As I pointed out above. I've met both Benns. Tony was a grand old man and an amazing orator. Hillary was funny and personable and wonderful with my small children.
  • Norway+ just seems like a dream outcome. Decouples us from ever closer union, the Euro, the CAP and CFP whilst leaving us in the single market. Resolves the NI border issue. Puts a stop to Tories endless nonsensical love affair with chlorinated American chickens.

    It crushes our ERG your enemies, sees them driven before us, and to hear the lamentation of their women. Sends the gammons incandescent with rage, splitting off the reactionary half of Tory vote to vote for Tommy Robinson's UKIP, leaving the Tories a ranting, gammon-Mogg filled rump trapped in opposition forever.

    I see zero downsides.

    I largely agree.

    But somebody is going to have to step up and be honest with the British people and tell them that getting the above requires allowing freedom of movement, and that on balance that is a decent deal to accept.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    I'm looking forward to the analysis of today in terms of Parliamentary sovereignty where people earnestly explain that the executive is sovereign on governmental matters.

    Even though this all makes Brexit less likely I am pleased with these two results. Any argument about negotiation by Parliament being a bad idea (which might at least have had some measure of validity) was ended once the Deal was agreed. From now on it should be Parliament not the Executive that have the final say on these things.

    That said they should also be prepared for the consequences if they betray the electorate.

    As an aside I still don't see how they get around the deadline issue. If the Government simply chooses not to bring any further legislation forward, how in practice do Parliament force No Deal off the table?
    Yes it all rather gives the lie to the piles of steaming garbage that the likes of @Mortimer and @Charles have been serving up on the matter.
    I’m looking forward to your explanation of how parliament can negotiate a deal with a third party.
    It creates a committee of safety to negotiate with a third party.
    That wouldn’t be anything like the one that Robespiere set up would it?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2018
    The pity is that Theresa May seems to be the only one with a coherent set of arguments, and yet she's the one that is going to be defeated first.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited December 2018

    Norway+ just seems like a dream outcome. Decouples us from ever closer union, the Euro, the CAP and CFP whilst leaving us in the single market. Resolves the NI border issue. Puts a stop to Tories endless nonsensical love affair with chlorinated American chickens.

    It crushes our ERG enemies, sees them driven before us, and to hear the lamentation of their women. Sends the gammons incandescent with rage, splitting off the reactionary half of the Tory vote to vote for Tommy Robinson's UKIP, leaving the Tories a ranting, gammon-Mogg filled rump trapped in opposition forever.

    I see zero downsides.

    Plenty of Labour working class voters would also switch to UKIP2 if BINO as 2015 proved
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690

    Back on topic, have we worked out which Conservative party Michael Cox is going to be the leader of?

    Cox party
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Mortimer said:

    Time for an election, methinks.

    This Parliament won’t pass the deal, which only the executive can negotiate. A new one is required.

    Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Prepare for PM Jezza...

  • Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    I'm looking forward to the analysis of today in terms of Parliamentary sovereignty where people earnestly explain that the executive is sovereign on governmental matters.

    Even though this all makes Brexit less likely I am pleased with these two results. Any argument about negotiation by Parliament being a bad idea (which might at least have had some measure of validity) was ended once the Deal was agreed. From now on it should be Parliament not the Executive that have the final say on these things.

    That said they should also be prepared for the consequences if they betray the electorate.

    As an aside I still don't see how they get around the deadline issue. If the Government simply chooses not to bring any further legislation forward, how in practice do Parliament force No Deal off the table?
    Yes it all rather gives the lie to the piles of steaming garbage that the likes of @Mortimer and @Charles have been serving up on the matter.
    I’m looking forward to your explanation of how parliament can negotiate a deal with a third party.
    It creates a committee of safety to negotiate with a third party.
    That wouldn’t be anything like the one that Robespiere set up would it?
    I'm taking inspiration from the English Civil War.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    I’ve been out for an hour (just post Grieve result). Can someone pls update me!

    Parliament votes to take control if Mrs May's deal is rejected.
    Good-o!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
    But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.

    Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
    That's why I said 'or whatever' since it's mostly just about which unicorn solution she might announce.
    Well, Norway+ would require re-opening the withdrawal agreement to make the CU permanent and remove the most troubling aspects of the backstop. Which, we have been told is Completely Impossible(tm).

    Until next week when it is not.
    Norway+ Customs Union is now the most likely Brexit outcome if May's Deal is rejected and Parliament takes over.

    Though as it is EU in all but name bar leaving the CFP with full free movement and the UK unable to do free trade deals most Leave voters will be furious and UKIP or a new Farage/Bannon party will probably be on 20 to 25%+ of the vote within 6 months
    Fab. Known in the business as snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
    It would be a BINO Brexit that pleases Remainers more than Leavers ironically
    Indeed. And by the far the best brand of Brexit for business, employees and the nation. Anyone involved in commerce other than flogging dusty old books will surely rejoice at this news.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Back on topic, have we worked out which Conservative party Michael Cox is going to be the leader of?

    Cox party
    The party of Cox?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Back on topic, have we worked out which Conservative party Michael Cox is going to be the leader of?

    Cox party
    C.O.N.T.E.M.P.T.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    The problem with Parliament taking control is that it has convincing majorities against everything. What is it for?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    I'm looking forward to the analysis of today in terms of Parliamentary sovereignty where people earnestly explain that the executive is sovereign on governmental matters.

    Even though this all makes Brexit less likely I am pleased with these two results. Any argument about negotiation by Parliament being a bad idea (which might at least have had some measure of validity) was ended once the Deal was agreed. From now on it should be Parliament not the Executive that have the final say on these things.

    That said they should also be prepared for the consequences if they betray the electorate.

    As an aside I still don't see how they get around the deadline issue. If the Government simply chooses not to bring any further legislation forward, how in practice do Parliament force No Deal off the table?
    Yes it all rather gives the lie to the piles of steaming garbage that the likes of @Mortimer and @Charles have been serving up on the matter.
    I’m looking forward to your explanation of how parliament can negotiate a deal with a third party.
    It creates a committee of safety to negotiate with a third party.
    That wouldn’t be anything like the one that Robespiere set up would it?
    More like the one that ran the Parliamentary side of the Civil War I should think.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    We should probably be paying attention to Farage at this point too - resigning from UKIP simply has to be the prelude to something else:he's not the type to just go and grow tomatoes.
  • You mean Tony Benn who fought against UK membership of the EEC/EU consistently for his whole political career? If only Hillary was 1000th of the man Tony was.

    Hillary is his own man with his own opinions. His father defended him fiercely when it was suggested that Hillary shamed Tony. Remember that the 2nd Viscount Stansgate went on his own significant journey with an evolution of views.
    Tony was articulate, hugely intelligent and principled. None of those qualities were passed on to his son.
    Yet Tony Benn would vehemently disagree with you if you ever said that to him.
    Of course he would. It was his son. That doesn't mean he would be right.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Norway+ just seems like a dream outcome. Decouples us from ever closer union, the Euro, the CAP and CFP whilst leaving us in the single market. Resolves the NI border issue. Puts a stop to Tories endless nonsensical love affair with chlorinated American chickens.

    It crushes our ERG your enemies, sees them driven before us, and to hear the lamentation of their women. Sends the gammons incandescent with rage, splitting off the reactionary half of Tory vote to vote for Tommy Robinson's UKIP, leaving the Tories a ranting, gammon-Mogg filled rump trapped in opposition forever.

    I see zero downsides.

    I largely agree.

    But somebody is going to have to step up and be honest with the British people and tell them that getting the above requires allowing freedom of movement, and that on balance that is a decent deal to accept.
    And ongoing large payments into the EU coffers...

    And no “voice at the table”

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    DavidL said:

    The problem with Parliament taking control is that it has convincing majorities against everything. What is it for?

    That remains to be proven. Perhaps we shall be surprised.
  • Mortimer said:

    Time for an election, methinks.

    This Parliament won’t pass the deal, which only the executive can negotiate. A new one is required.

    Indeed. The whole point about the legislature firmly taking control from a floundering and powerless executive is that no government can function as a government if it does not have the support of the House.

    The scenario is there for all to see. Tory MPs voting down every measure proposed by the Tory government. Then voting confidence in the government, sustaining in office a government removed from power by their votes.

    So, the government bound to avoid hard Brexit refusing to do so. An election - regardless of what the result may be - would be the ONLY solution. It is increasingly inevitable.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    I'm looking forward to the analysis of today in terms of Parliamentary sovereignty where people earnestly explain that the executive is sovereign on governmental matters.

    Even though this all makes Brexit less likely I am pleased with these two results. Any argument about negotiation by Parliament being a bad idea (which might at least have had some measure of validity) was ended once the Deal was agreed. From now on it should be Parliament not the Executive that have the final say on these things.

    That said they should also be prepared for the consequences if they betray the electorate.

    As an aside I still don't see how they get around the deadline issue. If the Government simply chooses not to bring any further legislation forward, how in practice do Parliament force No Deal off the table?
    Yes it all rather gives the lie to the piles of steaming garbage that the likes of @Mortimer and @Charles have been serving up on the matter.
    I’m looking forward to your explanation of how parliament can negotiate a deal with a third party.
    It creates a committee of safety to negotiate with a third party.
    That wouldn’t be anything like the one that Robespiere set up would it?
    I'm taking inspiration from the English Civil War.
    Give me a plain russet coated PBer who knows what he posts for and loves what he knows.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    The pity is that Theresa May seems to be the only one with a coherent set of arguments, and yet she's the one that is going to be defeated first.

    A coherent set of arguments is a disadvantage in an emotional slanging match.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    The pity is that Theresa May seems to be the only one with a coherent set of arguments, and yet she's the one that is going to be defeated first.

    Her arguments are fatally flawed and her ability to win over support is nil.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    I'm looking forward to the analysis of today in terms of Parliamentary sovereignty where people earnestly explain that the executive is sovereign on governmental matters.

    Even though this all makes Brexit less likely I am pleased with these two results. Any argument about negotiation by Parliament being a bad idea (which might at least have had some measure of validity) was ended once the Deal was agreed. From now on it should be Parliament not the Executive that have the final say on these things.

    That said they should also be prepared for the consequences if they betray the electorate.

    As an aside I still don't see how they get around the deadline issue. If the Government simply chooses not to bring any further legislation forward, how in practice do Parliament force No Deal off the table?
    Yes it all rather gives the lie to the piles of steaming garbage that the likes of @Mortimer and @Charles have been serving up on the matter.
    I’m looking forward to your explanation of how parliament can negotiate a deal with a third party.
    It creates a committee of safety to negotiate with a third party.
    That wouldn’t be anything like the one that Robespiere set up would it?
    Now there was a man who knew how to achieve a majority.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited December 2018
    DavidL said:

    The problem with Parliament taking control is that it has convincing majorities against everything. What is it for?

    There's an overwhelming majority against No Deal, which means one of

    1) Extending Article 50

    2) Revoking Article 50

    3) Norway
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    alex. said:

    Norway+ just seems like a dream outcome. Decouples us from ever closer union, the Euro, the CAP and CFP whilst leaving us in the single market. Resolves the NI border issue. Puts a stop to Tories endless nonsensical love affair with chlorinated American chickens.

    It crushes our ERG your enemies, sees them driven before us, and to hear the lamentation of their women. Sends the gammons incandescent with rage, splitting off the reactionary half of Tory vote to vote for Tommy Robinson's UKIP, leaving the Tories a ranting, gammon-Mogg filled rump trapped in opposition forever.

    I see zero downsides.

    I largely agree.

    But somebody is going to have to step up and be honest with the British people and tell them that getting the above requires allowing freedom of movement, and that on balance that is a decent deal to accept.
    And ongoing large payments into the EU coffers...

    And no “voice at the table”

    I mean, let's be honest. Recent events have rather proven why our voice should not be at the table.

    That said: that isn't how the EEA works, nor the Swiss bilateral organs.
  • We should probably be paying attention to Farage at this point too - resigning from UKIP simply has to be the prelude to something else:he's not the type to just go and grow tomatoes.

    He's starting a new party, surely? "There's a huge space for a Brexit party in British politics, but it won't be filled by UKIP".
  • dixiedean said:

    The pity is that Theresa May seems to be the only one with a coherent set of arguments, and yet she's the one that is going to be defeated first.

    A coherent set of arguments is a disadvantage in an emotional slanging match.
    True.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    We should probably be paying attention to Farage at this point too - resigning from UKIP simply has to be the prelude to something else:he's not the type to just go and grow tomatoes.

    He's starting a new party, surely? "There's a huge space for a Brexit party in British politics, but it won't be filled by UKIP".
    I'm hoping he joins the SDP like Patrick O'Flynn.

    Everything old is new again.
  • Jonathan said:

    The pity is that Theresa May seems to be the only one with a coherent set of arguments, and yet she's the one that is going to be defeated first.

    Her arguments are fatally flawed and her ability to win over support is nil.
    They're not flawed, she's laid out the arguments very well. You're right on the second point, though.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:

    Time for an election, methinks.

    This Parliament won’t pass the deal, which only the executive can negotiate. A new one is required.

    Indeed. The whole point about the legislature firmly taking control from a floundering and powerless executive is that no government can function as a government if it does not have the support of the House.

    The scenario is there for all to see. Tory MPs voting down every measure proposed by the Tory government. Then voting confidence in the government, sustaining in office a government removed from power by their votes.

    So, the government bound to avoid hard Brexit refusing to do so. An election - regardless of what the result may be - would be the ONLY solution. It is increasingly inevitable.
    Not just refusing, but unable to.

    Legislation means we leave on 29th March. Something else needs to be passed to prevent that.

    Of course the spanner in the works is that Tory MPs can block an election, too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    DavidL said:

    The problem with Parliament taking control is that it has convincing majorities against everything. What is it for?

    There's an overwhelming majority for No Deal, which means one of

    1) Extending Article 50

    2) Revoking Article 50

    3) Norway
    I don't think there is an overwhelming majority for no deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    I'm looking forward to the analysis of today in terms of Parliamentary sovereignty where people earnestly explain that the executive is sovereign on governmental matters.

    Even though this all makes Brexit less likely I am pleased with these two results. Any argument about negotiation by Parliament being a bad idea (which might at least have had some measure of validity) was ended once the Deal was agreed. From now on it should be Parliament not the Executive that have the final say on these things.

    That said they should also be prepared for the consequences if they betray the electorate.

    As an aside I still don't see how they get around the deadline issue. If the Government simply chooses not to bring any further legislation forward, how in practice do Parliament force No Deal off the table?
    Yes it all rather gives the lie to the piles of steaming garbage that the likes of @Mortimer and @Charles have been serving up on the matter.
    I’m looking forward to your explanation of how parliament can negotiate a deal with a third party.
    It creates a committee of safety to negotiate with a third party.
    That wouldn’t be anything like the one that Robespiere set up would it?
    I'm taking inspiration from the English Civil War.
    Give me a plain russet coated PBer who knows what he posts for and loves what he knows.
    A great quote, suitable for the Irish question too. :)
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    We should probably be paying attention to Farage at this point too - resigning from UKIP simply has to be the prelude to something else:he's not the type to just go and grow tomatoes.

    He's starting a new party, surely? "There's a huge space for a Brexit party in British politics, but it won't be filled by UKIP".
    I'm hoping he joins the SDP like Patrick O'Flynn.

    Everything old is new again.
    He has spoken approvingly of the SDP in the past.
  • No Brexit is better than a Bad Brexit?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Norway+ just seems like a dream outcome. Decouples us from ever closer union, the Euro, the CAP and CFP whilst leaving us in the single market. Resolves the NI border issue. Puts a stop to Tories endless nonsensical love affair with chlorinated American chickens.

    It crushes our ERG enemies, sees them driven before us, and to hear the lamentation of their women. Sends the gammons incandescent with rage, splitting off the reactionary half of the Tory vote to vote for Tommy Robinson's UKIP, leaving the Tories a ranting, gammon-Mogg filled rump trapped in opposition forever.

    I see zero downsides.

    The big problem is it gives us no say in decision making (especially when it comes to financial services) and will leave us vulnerable to hostile rule making by the rest of the EU. Camerons deal would have been a better outcome.
  • Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    The problem with Parliament taking control is that it has convincing majorities against everything. What is it for?

    There's an overwhelming majority for No Deal, which means one of

    1) Extending Article 50

    2) Revoking Article 50

    3) Norway
    I don't think there is an overwhelming majority for no deal.
    I think he means 'against'
  • We should probably be paying attention to Farage at this point too - resigning from UKIP simply has to be the prelude to something else:he's not the type to just go and grow tomatoes.

    A well-informed source has suggested to me that there may be a reverse takeover about to take place of the previously moribund SDP. Patrick O’Flynn may be the scout.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    The problem with Parliament taking control is that it has convincing majorities against everything. What is it for?

    There's an overwhelming majority for No Deal, which means one of

    1) Extending Article 50

    2) Revoking Article 50

    3) Norway
    I don't think there is an overwhelming majority for no deal.
    I think he meant an overwhelming majority against No Deal.

    Only the ERG claim to want it, and most of those will probably crumble when they have to actually put it to the test.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited December 2018
    A lot of the comments on “overwhelming opposition to May’s deal”, Parliament will coalesce around an alternative, rather bypass the fact that a large chunk of Labour opposition is based on nothing more than the fact that they didn’t negotiate it.
  • We should probably be paying attention to Farage at this point too - resigning from UKIP simply has to be the prelude to something else:he's not the type to just go and grow tomatoes.

    A well-informed source has suggested to me that there may be a reverse takeover about to take place of the previously moribund SDP. Patrick O’Flynn may be the scout.
    What's the advantage, over forming a new party?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Time for an election, methinks.

    This Parliament won’t pass the deal, which only the executive can negotiate. A new one is required.

    Indeed. The whole point about the legislature firmly taking control from a floundering and powerless executive is that no government can function as a government if it does not have the support of the House.

    The scenario is there for all to see. Tory MPs voting down every measure proposed by the Tory government. Then voting confidence in the government, sustaining in office a government removed from power by their votes.

    So, the government bound to avoid hard Brexit refusing to do so. An election - regardless of what the result may be - would be the ONLY solution. It is increasingly inevitable.
    Not just refusing, but unable to.

    Legislation means we leave on 29th March. Something else needs to be passed to prevent that.

    Of course the spanner in the works is that Tory MPs can block an election, too.
    Surely, after todays ruling Parliament could vote to withdraw A50, while we put our thinking caps on.
  • I love Bercow! "If you don't like it you can frankly lump it!"
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    So, if and when the government loses the meaningful vote, what is there left for Theresa May to do?

    Announce the plan is to go for Norway (or whatever) but that she is not the best person to attempt it, so she will ask the party to choose a temporary leader to negotiate that position and when that person is selected she will stand down as PM.
    But “Norway” or whatever, would be a post transition period situation. It isn’t even ruled out by May’s deal, since it would be a solution for the future trading arrangements which aren’t part of the deal.

    Oh, and it probably wouldn’t meet the EU’s redlines on the Irish border...
    That's why I said 'or whatever' since it's mostly just about which unicorn solution she might announce.
    Well, Norway+ would require re-opening the withdrawal agreement to make the CU permanent and remove the most troubling aspects of the backstop. Which, we have been told is Completely Impossible(tm).

    Until next week when it is not.
    Norway+ Customs Union is now the most likely Brexit outcome if May's Deal is rejected and Parliament takes over.

    Though as it is EU in all but name with full free movement and the UK unable to do free trade deals most Leave voters will be furious and UKIP or a new Farage/Bannon party will probably be on 20 to 25%+ of the vote within 6 months
    Does that not kind of ignore the fact that there would probably have to be a completely new EEA treaty agreed by both the EU and EFTA with unanimity from every country. That should take a couple of years at least. And who is going to support it when it is effectively the backstop in perpetuity?
    Ultimately yes but that could be worked out in the future relationship talks, the UK would be committing to signing up to all single market and customs union rules. Bar the ERG Tories and Corbynistas and Field, Mann, Hoey and Stringer and the DUP I would expect most Labour and Tory MPs and all LD and SNP MPs and Lucas and Hermon to back SM and CU over the risk of No Deal if May's Deal is rejected
    So how do you get all that agreed in a couple of months? I am not entirely opposed to it although the customs union idea is deeply dumb and will be a millstone round our necks. But I just don't see how you get to that position from here.
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