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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Can May win the ‘meaningful
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Can May win the ‘meaningful vote and what happens if she doesn’t?’
On this week’s podcast the Polling Matters team, including the returning Rob Vance, discuss evolving public opinion on May’s Brexit deal and what happens if she does not win the ‘meaningful vote’ next month.
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God knows what happens to fill the void.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hchOYs_d_Bw
I'd argue your path weights are wrong. I'd go with the differences in percentages. Thus:
4 (52-48): NoDeal>Remain
12 (56-44): MayDeal>Remain
16 (58-42): MayDeal>NoDeal
Doesn't change the outcome though, since May's deal is the only one that doesn't lose any beatpaths:
MayDeal>NoDeal 28 4 NoDeal>MayDeal
MayDeal>Remain 28 4 Remain>MayDeal
NoDeal>Remain 20 12 Remain>NoDeal
May's deal is the Schulze winner.
As I stand by my globe, I can span London-Tokyo with my forefinger and thumb, if I span from Cape Town, I reach Paris, from Singapore I am approaching Munich. From Buenos Aires, I am still only off the Iberian North African Islands, specifically Madeira.
It's not quite as far away as Bali, but not far off.
That is a big tiring trip to make with May's current schedule - the legendary stamina of some PMs past would not go amiss.
It's a farce if Mps don't even have to stand up and be counted on this, the only reasons for there not to have the vote have been political.
And it achieves what? If the EU is going to renegotiate after all they would be fools not to want to know how parliament voted on the current offer.
People don't like change.
May's deal is also the AV winner, able to sneak through on second prefs.
(Yes I know Wheatley isn’t OxWAb, but she’s very much the figurehead for the local party.)
' The number of girls in England who have experienced or are believed to be at risk of female genital mutilation (FGM) has more than doubled in a year, according to assessments by council social workers.
Analysis of government figures shows that FGM featured in 1,960 social work assessments in 2017-18 – more than twice the 970 cases reported in the previous year.
The figures were described as alarming by those working in the field, who said the increase was due mainly to better detection by social workers. Experts said the real incidence of FGM is likely to be far higher, however, as it remains a largely hidden crime. '
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/30/female-genital-mutilation-cases-more-than-double-in-a-year-in-uk
https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1068298764014796800?s=21
How the hell have Labour lost 6% ? Jezza laying wreaths at terrorist ceremonies and finding Labour is overwhelmed with anti-semites didn't have that effect on their numbers.
https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1068299542347567104?s=21
Staggering. Even by outlier standards. Surely a mistake....
But weren't we told that immigrants came to this country to work and didn't use public services or claim benefits ?
Using my supermarket viewing as a guide the number of 'Poles' in their 20s and 30s has certainly declined.
But there's been a big increase in multi-generational families who look like the peasants Bela Lugosi used to terrorise.
What are May's PM ratings in this poll ?
Combining this with the deltapoll, the backbenches would be mad to rebel like they're about to.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1068192988659138560
I think I speak for everyone when I say: uhhh, wot?
Support for the deal:
Support: 27%
Oppose 45%
When asked to choose between Mrs May’s deal and staying in the EU, 43 per cent urged MPs to vote down the deal, even if it meant remaining, while 32 per cent said MPs should back her deal.
One paradox of Brexit will be the Browning of Britain though, as we suck in more non-EU migrants.
+ 5% for SNP / PC
+3% for Green
would bring it to 100%
Among people who voted Leave in 2016:
28 per cent said that MPs should reject the deal even if it meant continued EU membership
48 per cent said that they should back it
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1068303698391121921?s=21
30 is a really poor score for Labour though.
The problem is whether you're a May dealer, No dealer or remainer their position is a nonsense.
But if we're seeing a shift in the type of EU migrants then that could quickly change.
And lets be honest - outside of menial agricultural labour and tax credit farming there's not much demand for the skillset of many Eastern Europeans.
More detailed information on who is migrating to the UK and for what purpose is required.
They always used to be to linked to on PB but I can't remember any for quite a while.
Hearing that it is a typo and Labour are in fact on 35%
I think I was the only one on this site betting the A50 time would be extended.
Liam Fox will follow Andrea Leadsom in endorsing Theresa May’s Brexit deal today, saying that her opponents do not have the “luxury” of an alternative plan.
The trade secretary will back Mrs May’s plan in a speech in the southwest that coincides with a YouGov poll for The Times suggesting that there has been a sharp rise in people who favour her compromise over a no-deal Brexit. However, more than a quarter of those who voted for Brexit in 2016 want MPs to reject the prime minister’s deal, even if it means remaining in the EU.
Dr Fox will use his speech to argue that Brexiteers must make tough choices. “The deal we’ve reached will give us a firm and stable base on which to leave the EU and build this country’s global future, a future that still encompasses Europe, of course, but also the wide fast-growing markets beyond, with all the opportunity that entails,” he says.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-we-don-t-have-luxury-of-a-better-deal-says-fox-as-he-falls-in-line-mvfml083n
And they can f*ckity f*ck right off. They insisted on sequencing.
7 council by-elections tonight - the Con vote share rose in 6 of them. Does suggest Con support solid.
*get coat*
May should go for the kill against Labour on this.
https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/esmagazine/new-tory-reformers-a4001661.html