If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
Well lets test out that theory....
At which point Juncker stands up at an EU press conference rips the Deal in half after Parliament rejects it and says we now go to No Deal, no more negotiation
As long as they promise to have a video camera in the room when Juncker orders Leo Varadkar to get his transit van full of 2x4 down to the border and start building that fence.
To the EU if Northern Ireland is outside the customs union and single market that is a hard border
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
It is polarised and at the extremes. Change leader but the maths and arguments remain
I think May must have her chance to win the MV. I don't see how she can at present, I don't see how it can even be close, but she must get a chance.
If the vote is decisively against, 100+, as looks nailed on at the moment she will need to resign. She has failed to carry Parliament with her in her journey to this deal and she will have failed to convince a meaningful proportion of her own party.
TBH she hasn't really tried. What's happening now is part of an inexplicable failure to build a cross party consensus, or even keep her own backbenchers on board.
Which given the fragility of her majority, is UTTERLY incomprehensible behaviour.
@Richard_Nabavi - I cannot agree with you. I have changed my mind on this.
Leaving with no deal is the only option that undoubtedly respects the Conservative manifesto of 2017. More importantly, it is the second-most popular option with the public, with the Deal in dismal 3rd place. If No Deal is not on the ballot, there will be very loud cries that the second referendum is illegitimate. I can then see us voting to Remain on a sub-50% turnout.
That really will clear the way for the rise of the Far Right.
To be clear, my personal preference is that MPs just vote for the Deal. There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of it happening.
Deal beats No Deal 34% to 27% head to head with Ashcroft's latest poll
That leaves a lot of people still to come off the fence. If - as I suspect - the narrative on any second vote gets turned into "who governs Britain, the MPs or the voters?", it could get very messy....
When they realise they will be voting for potentially losing their jobs, their wages and seeing shortages in the shops and a shortage of workers in.public services in the event of No Deal minds could be concentrated
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
Well lets test out that theory....
At which point Juncker stands up at an EU press conference rips the Deal in half after Parliament rejects it and says we now go to No Deal, no more negotiation
As long as they promise to have a video camera in the room when Juncker orders Leo Varadkar to get his transit van full of 2x4 down to the border and start building that fence.
To the EU if Northern Ireland is outside the customs union and single market that is a hard border
If that's the extent of a hard border why does the Uk give a toss ?
I think May must have her chance to win the MV. I don't see how she can at present, I don't see how it can even be close, but she must get a chance.
If the vote is decisively against, 100+, as looks nailed on at the moment she will need to resign. She has failed to carry Parliament with her in her journey to this deal and she will have failed to convince a meaningful proportion of her own party. It will be time for someone else to have a go.
My guess then is that we will have Hunt or Javid as PM. They will go back to Brussels to seek more time and some re-negotiation. They are likely to get the former but not the latter except in the most flimsy of ways. Some progress on the political statement is possible and that might give some assurance to those worried about the backstop and other provisions of the WA which tie us into EU law.
What do we do then? I'm not sure but a referendum on the new improved deal is increasingly a possibility. It could be yes or no of course in which case the alternative is a no deal Brexit but I think that we have gone past that. It seems likely that remain will be on the ballot paper although we will need clarity of what remain would mean and that what we think it would mean is acceptable to the EU. We might even find that the EU doesn't really fancy the UK being a continuing member and is not minded to grant the option.
IMO the most likely outcome is that MPs will do nothing, except to point the finger at each other.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
If the referendum is between Deal and Remain, turnout will be very low. It will store up trouble for the future.
Still better than crashing out, which is unthinkable, and would store up hugely more trouble. For Remainers who supported going ahead with Brexit on the basis that the democratic decision had to be respected, the fact that Leavers are no longer happy with the Brexit they campaigned for removes the obligation to respect the referendum result.
Leaving without May's deal can happen, it should be on the ballot. It is important that it is defeated and seen to be defeated.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Clueless the lot of them. If the Deal is rejected and May goes it will be worse than Suez, it will be the biggest crisis for Britain since 1940. Though it will give Boris the chance to do his Churchill Darkest hour tribute act as replacement PM though
is it splits the Leave vote. You could quite conceivably have Remain at 48% and the other two at 26% each. You would need the single transferable voting system (I think that's the right one?) in which voters give their first and second choice, so that if no answer receives 50%+ it goes to a second round of counting. In that scenario, ironically after everything, 'Deal' could quite well come through the middle, being the second preference for both No Dealers and Remainers (well, most of them).
Is the above just a short way of saying, to save all the hassle the MPs should just back May's deal?
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
Well lets test out that theory....
At which point Juncker stands up at an EU press conference rips the Deal in half after Parliament rejects it and says we now go to No Deal, no more negotiation
As long as they promise to have a video camera in the room when Juncker orders Leo Varadkar to get his transit van full of 2x4 down to the border and start building that fence.
To the EU if Northern Ireland is outside the customs union and single market that is a hard border
If that's the extent of a hard border why does the Uk give a toss ?
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Yeah, cos what we need is a bloody leadership contest whilst we're going full pelt towards no-deal in March.
I fully expect Corbyn to be an unenthusiastic advocate of a people's vote, just as he was an unenthusiastic advocate of remain. The weight of opinion in Labour is such that he really has no choice in the matter.
And, to give him his due, he really does pay more than lip service to the concept of a member-led party. He has accepted the party position on Trident, despite it being diametrically opposed to his personal view.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Clueless the lot of them. If the Deal is rejected and May goes it will be worse than Suez, it will be the biggest crisis for Britain since 1940. Though it will give Boris the chance to do his Churchill Darkest hour tribute act as replacement PM though
2 years of not selling the deal and not bringing her colleagues or voters along with her.
2 years of this chicken licken sky is falling berating of the public.
It's been tried and is about to fail - time for something different and better.
I think May must have her chance to win the MV. I don't see how she can at present, I don't see how it can even be close, but she must get a chance.
If the vote is decisively against, 100+, as looks nailed on at the moment she will need to resign. She has failed to carry Parliament with her in her journey to this deal and she will have failed to convince a meaningful proportion of her own party. It will be time for someone else to have a go.
My guess then is that we will have Hunt or Javid as PM. They will go back to Brussels to seek more time and some re-negotiation. They are likely to get the former but not the latter except in the most flimsy of ways. Some progress on the political statement is possible and that might give some assurance to those worried about the backstop and other provisions of the WA which tie us into EU law.
What do we do then? I'm not sure but a referendum on the new improved deal is increasingly a possibility. It could be yes or no of course in which case the alternative is a no deal Brexit but I think that we have gone past that. It seems likely that remain will be on the ballot paper although we will need clarity of what remain would mean and that what we think it would mean is acceptable to the EU. We might even find that the EU doesn't really fancy the UK being a continuing member and is not minded to grant the option.
IMO the most likely outcome is that MPs will do nothing, except to point the finger at each other.
First time around that looks inevitable. Our MPs are pompous, preening fools who love the sound of their own voice and are convinced in the inevitable correctness of their positions, whatever they might be from day to day. If May gets it close, within 30, then she just might get another go. But I am not seeing that outcome at the moment.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
If the referendum is between Deal and Remain, turnout will be very low. It will store up trouble for the future.
Still better than crashing out, which is unthinkable, and would store up hugely more trouble. For Remainers who supported going ahead with Brexit on the basis that the democratic decision had to be respected, the fact that Leavers are no longer happy with the Brexit they campaigned for removes the obligation to respect the referendum result.
Your last sentence is utter rubbish. How many Leavers campaigned for May’s deal?
You also need to look longer term. If we offer the referendum you suggest, there will be a whole swathe of mainly older voters, most of whom are staunch Tories, who will never vote again. We will be handing the country to a Corbynite Labour Party for a generation.
If you think that’s worse than crashing out, I strongly disagree.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
If the referendum is between Deal and Remain, turnout will be very low. It will store up trouble for the future.
Still better than crashing out, which is unthinkable, and would store up hugely more trouble. For Remainers who supported going ahead with Brexit on the basis that the democratic decision had to be respected, the fact that Leavers are no longer happy with the Brexit they campaigned for removes the obligation to respect the referendum result.
Leaving without May's deal can happen, it should be on the ballot. It is important that it is defeated and seen to be defeated.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Yeah, cos what we need is a bloody leadership contest whilst we're going full pelt towards no-deal in March.
Corbyn will be PM by Xmas in those circumstances.
The Conservative Party will fully deserve that outcome, but those of us who voted for them will suffer the consequences.
is it splits the Leave vote. You could quite conceivably have Remain at 48% and the other two at 26% each. You would need the single transferable voting system (I think that's the right one?) in which voters give their first and second choice, so that if no answer receives 50%+ it goes to a second round of counting. In that scenario, ironically after everything, 'Deal' could quite well come through the middle, being the second preference for both No Dealers and Remainers (well, most of them).
It must be a ranked vote. And BTW it should be
This Deal Not This Deal (which includes the uncertainty of no deal and other deals) and Remain
May should be promoting her deal as the Goldilocks solution.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
It is polarised and at the extremes. Change leader but the maths and arguments remain
They do, but whatever happens next, May has has chosen to die on this hill.
The reconstruction era will have to be led by somebody not tainted by this deal. She does not have the moral authority to ask remainers and leavers, to suddenly ignore years of abuse, disingenuous briefings, and general failure to be consulted, and suddenly fall in line behind her as she proclaims herself a born-again healer.
Truth and reconciliation will have to be done by somebody not tainted by May.
From noises off, sounds like Gove might be offering up his services to serve as temporary PM for the duration of the EEA/EFTA pivot.
I think Labour could be encouraged to get behind that if Gove is prepared to sweeten the deal.
I think May must have her chance to win the MV. I don't see how she can at present, I don't see how it can even be close, but she must get a chance.
If the vote is decisively against, 100+, as looks nailed on at the moment she will need to resign. She has failed to carry Parliament with her in her journey to this deal and she will have failed to convince a meaningful proportion of her own party.
TBH she hasn't really tried. What's happening now is part of an inexplicable failure to build a cross party consensus, or even keep her own backbenchers on board.
Which given the fragility of her majority, is UTTERLY incomprehensible behaviour.
She's tried for the last 7-10 days. Before that....not so much.
"Among the mysteries of our time is why some of those in Britain who’ve fought hardest to see the nation freed from the shackles of the European Union are in the forefront of the campaign to kill of Theresa May’s hard-won Brexit deal."
It is not really a mystery - it is the wrong kind of Brexit. That is all there is to it.
To jettison the package now, after so much blood, sweat and tears, would be an historic act of national stupidity.
The "... historic act of national stupidity ..." was Cameron agreeing to have the referendum on such lax standards (50% + 1 vote) in the first place. Most countries set a level of 66% for constitutional stuff.
You're right, and its quite interesting that. If that had been in place, we probably wouldn't have got Maastrict. Not because the UK would have voted it down, but because Denmark would have.
is it splits the Leave vote. You could quite conceivably have Remain at 48% and the other two at 26% each. You would need the single transferable voting system (I think that's the right one?) in which voters give their first and second choice, so that if no answer receives 50%+ it goes to a second round of counting. In that scenario, ironically after everything, 'Deal' could quite well come through the middle, being the second preference for both No Dealers and Remainers (well, most of them).
Is the above just a short way of saying, to save all the hassle the MPs should just back May's deal?
No Deal can't be on the ballot paper. And without No Deal as an option the second referendum is meaningless.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
If the referendum is between Deal and Remain, turnout will be very low. It will store up trouble for the future.
Still better than crashing out, which is unthinkable, and would store up hugely more trouble. For Remainers who supported going ahead with Brexit on the basis that the democratic decision had to be respected, the fact that Leavers are no longer happy with the Brexit they campaigned for removes the obligation to respect the referendum result.
Leaving without May's deal can happen, it should be on the ballot. It is important that it is defeated and seen to be defeated.
Tell that to Sir Keir.
I'll tell him, I am meeting him at Nando's later before we go ten-pin bowling. Half the problem with Brexit is that govts have been acting as Nanny knows best, withdrawing options, which means they never get clearly defeated and the wounds fester.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
It is polarised and at the extremes. Change leader but the maths and arguments remain
They do, but whatever happens next, May has has chosen to die on this hill.
The reconstruction era will have to be led by somebody not tainted by this deal. She does not have the moral authority to ask remainers and leavers, to suddenly ignore years of abuse, disingenuous briefings, and general failure to be consulted, and suddenly fall in line behind her as she proclaims herself a born-again healer.
Truth and reconciliation will have to be done by somebody not tainted by May.
From noises off, sounds like Gove might be offering up his services to serve as temporary PM for the duration of the EEA/EFTA pivot.
I think Labour could be encouraged to get behind that if Gove is prepared to sweeten the deal.
Labour is opposed to EFTA/EEA pivot, Labour will only back permanent Customs Union
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
Well lets test out that theory....
At which point Juncker stands up at an EU press conference rips the Deal in half after Parliament rejects it and says we now go to No Deal, no more negotiation
As long as they promise to have a video camera in the room when Juncker orders Leo Varadkar to get his transit van full of 2x4 down to the border and start building that fence.
To the EU if Northern Ireland is outside the customs union and single market that is a hard border
If that's the extent of a hard border why does the Uk give a toss ?
As we need a Deal more than them
I think Mrs May has made that very very clear to them and its reflected in the dogs breakfast they have offered up.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Clueless the lot of them. If the Deal is rejected and May goes it will be worse than Suez, it will be the biggest crisis for Britain since 1940. Though it will give Boris the chance to do his Churchill Darkest hour tribute act as replacement PM though
2 years of not selling the deal and not bringing her colleagues or voters along with her.
2 years of this chicken licken sky is falling berating of the public.
It's been tried and is about to fail - time for something different and better.
Most of the public are not that bothered about the Deal, it is Remainers trying to reverse Brexit and Leavers trying to enforce an economically catastrophic No Deal who are the fanatics really dividing
Half the problem with Brexit is that govts have been acting as Nanny knows best, withdrawing options, which means they never get clearly defeated and the wounds fester.
That was Cameron's view, and he gets a lot of flak for it (including from you IIRC), because regrettably the bad option wasn't rejected.
May has her faults but I think that anyone who brought a deal with the EU back to the Commons as it is constituted would be getting the same treatment.
The ERG would remain twats, and too many MPs who voted to trigger A50 weren't prepared to accept that to so meant that they were running down the clock for leaving.
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
Well lets test out that theory....
At which point Juncker stands up at an EU press conference rips the Deal in half after Parliament rejects it and says we now go to No Deal, no more negotiation
As long as they promise to have a video camera in the room when Juncker orders Leo Varadkar to get his transit van full of 2x4 down to the border and start building that fence.
To the EU if Northern Ireland is outside the customs union and single market that is a hard border
If that's the extent of a hard border why does the Uk give a toss ?
As we need a Deal more than them
I think Mrs May has made that very very clear to them and its reflected in the dogs breakfast they have offered up.
It is economic reality, 44% of UK exports go to the EU, only 16% of EU exports go to the UK.
The EU have no incentive to make big concessions to the UK and risk other nations thinking of leaving the EU
May has her faults but I think that anyone who brought a deal with the EU back to the Commons as it is constituted would be getting the same treatment.
The ERG would remain twats, and too many MPs who voted to trigger A50 weren't prepared to accept that to so meant that they were running down the clock for leaving.
The funny thing is the ERG would have killed for this 3 years ago.
If you voted leave you should have wargamed the most likely outcome. Surely no one in their right mind could have thought the Brexit *they* voted for would be the one we would end up with.
Comedy answer. Who the hell wargames their vote?
What about those who wanted (3), but 'wargamed' the situation into realising they'd get (1)? Maybe they should switch to LEAVE to get (4) (their second preference)?
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Yeah, cos what we need is a bloody leadership contest whilst we're going full pelt towards no-deal in March.
Corbyn will be PM by Xmas in those circumstances.
Corbyn as PM of a minority government agreeing a permanent Customs Union and Boris as leader of the Opposition on a pure Brexit platform may end up being the least worst option for the country and the Tory Party now
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
It is polarised and at the extremes. Change leader but the maths and arguments remain
They do, but whatever happens next, May has has chosen to die on this hill.
The reconstruction era will have to be led by somebody not tainted by this deal. She does not have the moral authority to ask remainers and leavers, to suddenly ignore years of abuse, disingenuous briefings, and general failure to be consulted, and suddenly fall in line behind her as she proclaims herself a born-again healer.
Truth and reconciliation will have to be done by somebody not tainted by May.
From noises off, sounds like Gove might be offering up his services to serve as temporary PM for the duration of the EEA/EFTA pivot.
I think Labour could be encouraged to get behind that if Gove is prepared to sweeten the deal.
Labour is opposed to EFTA/EEA pivot, Labour will only back permanent Customs Union
Yeah, Norway+.
If there is to be a consensus in Parliament, and Parliament will need to come to this view rather quickly, Norway+ looks to me like it has the easiest path to getting enough Labour, SNP, DUP, LD nods to be viable.
This, of course, is the discussion May should have been having with Parliament a while ago. Certainly after her disastrous election fiasco, ideally before invoking A50.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Clueless the lot of them. If the Deal is rejected and May goes it will be worse than Suez, it will be the biggest crisis for Britain since 1940. Though it will give Boris the chance to do his Churchill Darkest hour tribute act as replacement PM though
2 years of not selling the deal and not bringing her colleagues or voters along with her.
2 years of this chicken licken sky is falling berating of the public.
It's been tried and is about to fail - time for something different and better.
Most of the public are not that bothered about the Deal, it is Remainers trying to reverse Brexit and Leavers trying to enforce an economically catastrophic No Deal who are the fanatics really dividing
Do you think Mrs May has done a good job of keeping her party onboard during this process ?
is it splits the Leave vote. You could quite conceivably have Remain at 48% and the other two at 26% each. You would need the single transferable voting system (I think that's the right one?) in which voters give their first and second choice, so that if no answer receives 50%+ it goes to a second round of counting. In that scenario, ironically after everything, 'Deal' could quite well come through the middle, being the second preference for both No Dealers and Remainers (well, most of them).
Is the above just a short way of saying, to save all the hassle the MPs should just back May's deal?
No Deal can't be on the ballot paper. And without No Deal as an option the second referendum is meaningless.
I disagree with that. Any negotiated withdrawal agreement would look like this one and is the only way to leave in an orderly manner. Anyone who *really* wants to leave the EU would vote for the deal as the 'freedom to win freedom' option. Removing No Deal just removes the populist stick it to the man element so people have to make a reality-based choice.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Yeah, cos what we need is a bloody leadership contest whilst we're going full pelt towards no-deal in March.
Corbyn will be PM by Xmas in those circumstances.
Corbyn as PM of a minority government agreeing a permanent Customs Union and Boris as leader of the Opposition on a pure Brexit platform may end up being the least worst option for the country and the Tory Party now
Boris is never the least worst option for anything.
May has her faults but I think that anyone who brought a deal with the EU back to the Commons as it is constituted would be getting the same treatment.
The ERG would remain twats, and too many MPs who voted to trigger A50 weren't prepared to accept that to so meant that they were running down the clock for leaving.
The funny thing is the ERG would have killed for this 3 years ago.
Which again, makes me wonder how many of them ever supported Brexit at all. I do think that for a lot of MPs, it's all part of some elaborate game that we don't know the rules of.
Half the problem with Brexit is that govts have been acting as Nanny knows best, withdrawing options, which means they never get clearly defeated and the wounds fester.
That was Cameron's view, and he gets a lot of flak for it (including from you IIRC), because regrettably the bad option wasn't rejected.
Cameron deserves all the the flak he gets and more. But lets not go there. Too much of Brexit is how did we get here, not how do we get out of it. It is useful to learn from past errors, but not use the future to settle old scores.
We would do better on Brexit if everyone's memory was wiped and we looked at the three options in front of us (and the fact that no deal is default) and made a choice based on what looks good going forward.
Can't see how Corbyn can do well here without having a more coherent stance on Brexit.
He drops the I have listened to the overwhelming opinion of my party and I will go along with them in recommending a People's Vote. Media go wild, Jezza wins.
It is as predictable as Jezza will propose free uni at the last GE and at the next legal weed.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Yeah, cos what we need is a bloody leadership contest whilst we're going full pelt towards no-deal in March.
Corbyn will be PM by Xmas in those circumstances.
There Is No Alternative. May has no majority, no authority. Neither would anyone else without a contest. We are heading for No Deal anyway. If that means Corbyn PM, then there we go.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
If the referendum is between Deal and Remain, turnout will be very low. It will store up trouble for the future.
Still better than crashing out, which is unthinkable, and would store up hugely more trouble. For Remainers who supported going ahead with Brexit on the basis that the democratic decision had to be respected, the fact that Leavers are no longer happy with the Brexit they campaigned for removes the obligation to respect the referendum result.
Your last sentence is utter rubbish. How many Leavers campaigned for May’s deal?
You also need to look longer term. If we offer the referendum you suggest, there will be a whole swathe of mainly older voters, most of whom are staunch Tories, who will never vote again. We will be handing the country to a Corbynite Labour Party for a generation.
If you think that’s worse than crashing out, I strongly disagree.
You'll also win plenty of centrist voters who are sick of Corbyn's prevarication on Brexit.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
It is polarised and at the extremes. Change leader but the maths and arguments remain
They do, but whatever happens next, May has has chosen to die on this hill.
The reconstruction era will have to be led by somebody not tainted by this deal. She does not have the moral authority to ask remainers and leavers, to suddenly ignore years of abuse, disingenuous briefings, and general failure to be consulted, and suddenly fall in line behind her as she proclaims herself a born-again healer.
Truth and reconciliation will have to be done by somebody not tainted by May.
From noises off, sounds like Gove might be offering up his services to serve as temporary PM for the duration of the EEA/EFTA pivot.
I think Labour could be encouraged to get behind that if Gove is prepared to sweeten the deal.
Labour is opposed to EFTA/EEA pivot, Labour will only back permanent Customs Union
Yeah, Norway+.
If there is to be a consensus in Parliament, and Parliament will need to come to this view rather quickly, Norway+ looks to me like it has the easiest path to getting enough Labour, SNP, DUP, LD nods to be viable.
This, of course, is the discussion May should have been having with Parliament a while ago. Certainly after her disastrous election fiasco, ideally before invoking A50.
Still, better late than never I guess.
Single Market plus Customs Union is effectively not Brexit at all in almost every respect but would still be better than No Deal
If you voted leave you should have wargamed the most likely outcome. Surely no one in their right mind could have thought the Brexit *they* voted for would be the one we would end up with.
Comedy answer. Who the hell wargames their vote?
What about those who wanted (3), but 'wargamed' the situation into realising they'd get (1)? Maybe they should switch to LEAVE to get (4) (their second preference)?
Most of us, like good students, just answer the question that has been set.
I fully expect Corbyn to be an unenthusiastic advocate of a people's vote, just as he was an unenthusiastic advocate of remain. The weight of opinion in Labour is such that he really has no choice in the matter.
And, to give him his due, he really does pay more than lip service to the concept of a member-led party. He has accepted the party position on Trident, despite it being diametrically opposed to his personal view.
I think his rhetoric will be (sort of) supportive of a second referendum, whilst his parliamentary actions and party administrative actions will be based on sitting out the clock for no deal.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Clueless the lot of them. If the Deal is rejected and May goes it will be worse than Suez, it will be the biggest crisis for Britain since 1940. Though it will give Boris the chance to do his Churchill Darkest hour tribute act as replacement PM though
2 years of not selling the deal and not bringing her colleagues or voters along with her.
2 years of this chicken licken sky is falling berating of the public.
It's been tried and is about to fail - time for something different and better.
Most of the public are not that bothered about the Deal, it is Remainers trying to reverse Brexit and Leavers trying to enforce an economically catastrophic No Deal who are the fanatics really dividing
Do you think Mrs May has done a good job of keeping her party onboard during this process ?
Her party is now impossible to manage, it looks and feels now more like a party ready for opposition than the party of government it was in 2010
Can't see how Corbyn can do well here without having a more coherent stance on Brexit.
Because he won't talk about Brexit much. He'll do what worked so well during the election campaign: hijack the discussion and drag it onto your turf, and bombard May with endless emotive onslaughts. Austerity, poverty, jobs, workers rights, the NHS, tax, food banks. He'll lay into May from every possible angle.
He'll claim to want a Jobs First brexit. He'll promise unicorns and cake in abundance.
Meanwhile, May will be quoting tractor production stats from the people's commissariat for agricultural output and wondering why she isn't getting applause.
I think May must have her chance to win the MV. I don't see how she can at present, I don't see how it can even be close, but she must get a chance.
If the vote is decisively against, 100+, as looks nailed on at the moment she will need to resign. She has failed to carry Parliament with her in her journey to this deal and she will have failed to convince a meaningful proportion of her own party.
She should resign if and when she loses by something approaching that margin, although she won't no doubt citing the national interest as her reason.
The interesting point about Fallon's intervention is not his opposition to her deal but the pointed refusal from a natural ally to commit to backing her in a future no confidence vote, suggesting to me that she is now odds on to lose one when it comes in December.
May has her faults but I think that anyone who brought a deal with the EU back to the Commons as it is constituted would be getting the same treatment.
The ERG would remain twats, and too many MPs who voted to trigger A50 weren't prepared to accept that to so meant that they were running down the clock for leaving.
The funny thing is the ERG would have killed for this 3 years ago.
Which again, makes me wonder how many of them ever supported Brexit at all. I do think that for a lot of MPs, it's all part of some elaborate game that we don't know the rules of.
I do fear it's more animalistic than that: many of the ERGers are, frankly, non-entities. There are those that want power and could conceivably get it (e.g. Boris, Davis). For the rest, they've become MPs and will get no further. Being against the EU is a position that gets their face on the TV, attracts a favourable crowd around them and gives them a feeling of self-importance.
If the EU issue ever becomes settled, they'll return to being non-entities, instead of the really important people they feel they deserve to be.
If you voted leave you should have wargamed the most likely outcome. Surely no one in their right mind could have thought the Brexit *they* voted for would be the one we would end up with.
Comedy answer. Who the hell wargames their vote?
What about those who wanted (3), but 'wargamed' the situation into realising they'd get (1)? Maybe they should switch to LEAVE to get (4) (their second preference)?
You are confirming that people are too stupid to know what they are voting for.
Reading the leavers on this website I am inclined to agree with you.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Yeah, cos what we need is a bloody leadership contest whilst we're going full pelt towards no-deal in March.
Corbyn will be PM by Xmas in those circumstances.
Corbyn as PM of a minority government agreeing a permanent Customs Union and Boris as leader of the Opposition on a pure Brexit platform may end up being the least worst option for the country and the Tory Party now
Boris is never the least worst option for anything.
If May goes she takes all Chequers and Deal backers with her leaving Boris the likely successor
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Clueless the lot of them. If the Deal is rejected and May goes it will be worse than Suez, it will be the biggest crisis for Britain since 1940. Though it will give Boris the chance to do his Churchill Darkest hour tribute act as replacement PM though
2 years of not selling the deal and not bringing her colleagues or voters along with her.
2 years of this chicken licken sky is falling berating of the public.
It's been tried and is about to fail - time for something different and better.
Most of the public are not that bothered about the Deal, it is Remainers trying to reverse Brexit and Leavers trying to enforce an economically catastrophic No Deal who are the fanatics really dividing
Do you think Mrs May has done a good job of keeping her party onboard during this process ?
Her party is now impossible to manage, it looks and feels now more like a party ready for opposition than the party of government it was in 2010
Just say it - no.
When even Fallon has had enough the writing is on the wall.
Can't see how Corbyn can do well here without having a more coherent stance on Brexit.
Because he won't talk about Brexit much. He'll do what worked so well during the election campaign: hijack the discussion and drag it onto your turf, and bombard May with endless emotive onslaughts. Austerity, poverty, jobs, workers rights, the NHS, tax, food banks. He'll lay into May from every possible angle.
He'll claim to want a Jobs First brexit. He'll promise unicorns and cake in abundance.
Meanwhile, May will be quoting tractor production stats from the people's commissariat for agricultural output and wondering why she isn't getting applause.
You have a point, but I'm not sure how much scope Corbyn will have to do that when the topic of the debate is supposed to be Brexit. I'm sure he'll manage somewhat, but it'd look absurd if he refused to mostly talk about Brexit.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
If the referendum is between Deal and Remain, turnout will be very low. It will store up trouble for the future.
Still better than crashing out, which is unthinkable, and would store up hugely more trouble. For Remainers who supported going ahead with Brexit on the basis that the democratic decision had to be respected, the fact that Leavers are no longer happy with the Brexit they campaigned for removes the obligation to respect the referendum result.
Your last sentence is utter rubbish. How many Leavers campaigned for May’s deal?
You also need to look longer term. If we offer the referendum you suggest, there will be a whole swathe of mainly older voters, most of whom are staunch Tories, who will never vote again. We will be handing the country to a Corbynite Labour Party for a generation.
If you think that’s worse than crashing out, I strongly disagree.
You'll also win plenty of centrist voters who are sick of Corbyn's prevarication on Brexit.
I think both of them are on holiday during election week.
Meeting between opposition MPs and Barwell gets duff reviews. Snell says "insipid" will vote against. Creasy "death by PowerPoint ". Questions not answered.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Yeah, cos what we need is a bloody leadership contest whilst we're going full pelt towards no-deal in March.
Corbyn will be PM by Xmas in those circumstances.
Corbyn as PM of a minority government agreeing a permanent Customs Union and Boris as leader of the Opposition on a pure Brexit platform may end up being the least worst option for the country and the Tory Party now
Boris is never the least worst option for anything.
If May goes she takes all Chequers and Deal backers with her leaving Boris the likely successor
Most Conservative MPs hate him. They hate everyone, but him in particular.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
If the referendum is between Deal and Remain, turnout will be very low. It will store up trouble for the future.
Still better than crashing out, which is unthinkable, and would store up hugely more trouble. For Remainers who supported going ahead with Brexit on the basis that the democratic decision had to be respected, the fact that Leavers are no longer happy with the Brexit they campaigned for removes the obligation to respect the referendum result.
It’s remarkable how few Leavers can see this.
Personally, I think the most likely outcome of voting down this deal is that we Remain or Leave on even closer terms (e.g. full SM/CU permanently) than we have on the table now.
At every point I expect the ERG and other leading Leavers to blame everyone but themselves.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Clueless the lot of them. If the Deal is rejected and May goes it will be worse than Suez, it will be the biggest crisis for Britain since 1940. Though it will give Boris the chance to do his Churchill Darkest hour tribute act as replacement PM though
2 years of not selling the deal and not bringing her colleagues or voters along with her.
2 years of this chicken licken sky is falling berating of the public.
It's been tried and is about to fail - time for something different and better.
Most of the public are not that bothered about the Deal, it is Remainers trying to reverse Brexit and Leavers trying to enforce an economically catastrophic No Deal who are the fanatics really dividing
Do you think Mrs May has done a good job of keeping her party onboard during this process ?
Her party is now impossible to manage, it looks and feels now more like a party ready for opposition than the party of government it was in 2010
Just say it - no.
When even Fallon has had enough the writing is on the wall.
May has got the best possible Deal from the EU in terms of respecting the Leave vote, if her party refuse to back it they should prepare for Corbyn as PM and a more BINO deal and go into opposition under Boris
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Yeah, cos what we need is a bloody leadership contest whilst we're going full pelt towards no-deal in March.
Corbyn will be PM by Xmas in those circumstances.
Corbyn as PM of a minority government agreeing a permanent Customs Union and Boris as leader of the Opposition on a pure Brexit platform may end up being the least worst option for the country and the Tory Party now
Boris is never the least worst option for anything.
If May goes she takes all Chequers and Deal backers with her leaving Boris the likely successor
Most Conservative MPs hate him. They hate everyone, but him in particular.
There are enough Leavers to get him in the final 2 and most members love Boris as Yougov and Con home polls attest. Boris will succeed May if she goes
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Yeah, cos what we need is a bloody leadership contest whilst we're going full pelt towards no-deal in March.
Corbyn will be PM by Xmas in those circumstances.
Corbyn as PM of a minority government agreeing a permanent Customs Union and Boris as leader of the Opposition on a pure Brexit platform may end up being the least worst option for the country and the Tory Party now
Boris is never the least worst option for anything.
If May goes she takes all Chequers and Deal backers with her leaving Boris the likely successor
Most Conservative MPs hate him. They hate everyone, but him in particular.
I trust May far more than Boris, who’d sell out his own family to further his career.
May has integrity and a sense of duty, even when I don’t agree with her and her hamfisted approach to politics.
Meeting between opposition MPs and Barwell gets duff reviews. Snell says "insipid" will vote against. Creasy "death by PowerPoint ". Questions not answered.
Does "death by powerpoint" simply mean politicians had to immerse themselves in the actual detail for five minutes without checking Twitter?
May has her faults but I think that anyone who brought a deal with the EU back to the Commons as it is constituted would be getting the same treatment.
The ERG would remain twats, and too many MPs who voted to trigger A50 weren't prepared to accept that to so meant that they were running down the clock for leaving.
The funny thing is the ERG would have killed for this 3 years ago.
Which again, makes me wonder how many of them ever supported Brexit at all. I do think that for a lot of MPs, it's all part of some elaborate game that we don't know the rules of.
I think a lot of it is peer group pressure mixed with personal ambition and longstanding grudges.
That should end at school, but Westminster has a very peculiar culture.
Can't see how Corbyn can do well here without having a more coherent stance on Brexit.
The detail in May's deal is absolutely toxic. All Corbyn needs to do is to repeatedly pick out examples from that to show that the EU has got us over a barrel, taking the stance that it's the worst of all worlds and thus simultaneously appealing to Remainers and Leavers. He can call out May for rolling over like a patsy in negotiations and claim that he would and could do better in the negotiations. Well he could hardly have done worse given what we have ended up with.
I trust May far more than Boris, who’d sell out his own family to further his career.
May has integrity and a sense of duty, even when I don’t agree with her and her hamfisted approach to politics.
Boris has neither.
I blame Angus Deaton for all this.
No crack cocaine and he would have remained host of HIGNFY. Boris would not have found exposure on the show that gave him a platform to run for mayor. If he hadn't run for mayor, he would not have nudged the Leave campaign over 50%.
Damn you Angus. You're almost as bad as the producer that cast Trump on the Apprentice.
Can't see how Corbyn can do well here without having a more coherent stance on Brexit.
Because he won't talk about Brexit much. He'll do what worked so well during the election campaign: hijack the discussion and drag it onto your turf, and bombard May with endless emotive onslaughts. Austerity, poverty, jobs, workers rights, the NHS, tax, food banks. He'll lay into May from every possible angle.
He'll claim to want a Jobs First brexit. He'll promise unicorns and cake in abundance.
Meanwhile, May will be quoting tractor production stats from the people's commissariat for agricultural output and wondering why she isn't getting applause.
You have a point, but I'm not sure how much scope Corbyn will have to do that when the topic of the debate is supposed to be Brexit. I'm sure he'll manage somewhat, but it'd look absurd if he refused to mostly talk about Brexit.
Derailing a conversation is an easy skill for a politician. Corbyn is a rambling, incoherent politician at the best of times. It'd take a moderator far more skilled than any the BBC can muster to keep Corbyn on topic and stop him launching a multi-pronged assault on May from every possible angle.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Yeah, cos what we need is a bloody leadership contest whilst we're going full pelt towards no-deal in March.
Corbyn will be PM by Xmas in those circumstances.
Corbyn as PM of a minority government agreeing a permanent Customs Union and Boris as leader of the Opposition on a pure Brexit platform may end up being the least worst option for the country and the Tory Party now
Boris is never the least worst option for anything.
If May goes she takes all Chequers and Deal backers with her leaving Boris the likely successor
Most Conservative MPs hate him. They hate everyone, but him in particular.
I trust May far more than Boris, who’d sell out his own family to further his career.
May has integrity and a sense of duty, even when I don’t agree with her and her hamfisted approach to politics.
Boris has neither.
@grabcocque summed him up correctly as an "amoral sociopathic snake."
He backed Brexit to advance his career, he flounced out of the Cabinet to advance his career, and he'd campaign to join the Euro if it would advance his career.
The only course that can heal the nation now is no deal followed by rejoin. We'll still fucking despise each other but the remainers will be back in the EU and the leavers will have had their crackpot ideas indulged and tested to destruction but still have their eternal grievance to burnish.
Meeting between opposition MPs and Barwell gets duff reviews. Snell says "insipid" will vote against. Creasy "death by PowerPoint ". Questions not answered.
Does "death by powerpoint" simply mean politicians had to immerse themselves in the actual detail for five minutes without checking Twitter?
The only course that can heal the nation now is no deal followed by rejoin. We'll still fucking despise each other but the remainers will be back in the EU and the leavers will have had their crackpot ideas indulged and tested to destruction but still have their eternal grievance to burnish.
May has got the best possible Deal from the EU in terms of respecting the Leave vote, if her party refuse to back it they should prepare for Corbyn as PM and a more BINO deal and go into opposition under Boris
You say it, you may even be right but that doesn't seem to be how many people see it. The view is there was a better deal to be done - it might have been the best deal May could get - it doesn't mean it was the best deal.
The other aspect is the lamentable lack of preparation for "No Deal" though how much of that is part of Project Fear to scare people into backing the Deal remains to be seen.
If Theresa May actions do not make sense looking at the forthcoming vote in Parliament, perhaps her actions are focused on preparing the ground for what she is going to do next?
May has her faults but I think that anyone who brought a deal with the EU back to the Commons as it is constituted would be getting the same treatment.
The ERG would remain twats, and too many MPs who voted to trigger A50 weren't prepared to accept that to so meant that they were running down the clock for leaving.
The funny thing is the ERG would have killed for this 3 years ago.
Which again, makes me wonder how many of them ever supported Brexit at all. I do think that for a lot of MPs, it's all part of some elaborate game that we don't know the rules of.
I think a lot of it is peer group pressure mixed with personal ambition and longstanding grudges.
That should end at school, but Westminster has a very peculiar culture.
Or maybe they can just see that this deal isn't very good.
What is it with the demonisation of anyone who represents the majority of the country that actually wants to leave the EU in a meaningful way?
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Indeed. And the very last thing needed is a coronation of a Unity candidate. None of any of these problems will be solved by changing the framed photo on Comservative club walls. They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Yeah, cos what we need is a bloody leadership contest whilst we're going full pelt towards no-deal in March.
Corbyn will be PM by Xmas in those circumstances.
Corbyn as PM of a minority government agreeing a permanent Customs Union and Boris as leader of the Opposition on a pure Brexit platform may end up being the least worst option for the country and the Tory Party now
Boris is never the least worst option for anything.
If May goes she takes all Chequers and Deal backers with her leaving Boris the likely successor
Another referendum would have to include the 3 main options, the deal, no deal, remain. Equally what it could not include are the deal (complex and in any event doesn't include the all important future relationship), no deal (no agreement on what that means) or remain (already rejected). It's IMO a non starter. Ditto a general election. Cannot see a realistic route to that.
So surely we leave on 29 March next year with some sort of deal, either this one with TM still in place or with something different under a new tory PM?
Meeting between opposition MPs and Barwell gets duff reviews. Snell says "insipid" will vote against. Creasy "death by PowerPoint ". Questions not answered.
Does "death by powerpoint" simply mean politicians had to immerse themselves in the actual detail for five minutes without checking Twitter?
I think it does.
It does make me wonder about Barwell's grasp on the seriousness of his predicament or reality.
His job depends on somehow avoiding a catastrophic shellacking for his boss, which by this point, barring a miracle, seems now absolutely certain.
May vs Corbyn debate could be Clegg vs Farage all over again. Polished facts vs rage, narrative and populism. All the while elevating the outsider to the rank of the incumbent. I'm astonished she's offering it to him. Another sign she's cracked and needs removing.
Fair enough, May needs to roll the dice at this point.
Which Christmas pantomime is this?
They're putting it on at the same time as the SCD Final - I think Theresa will waltz it and quickstep her way past the rumbaing Corbyn who really can't can't dance and the audience will tell him to Foxtrot off the stage!
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
If the referendum is between Deal and Remain, turnout will be very low. It will store up trouble for the future.
Still better than crashing out, which is unthinkable, and would store up hugely more trouble. For Remainers who supported going ahead with Brexit on the basis that the democratic decision had to be respected, the fact that Leavers are no longer happy with the Brexit they campaigned for removes the obligation to respect the referendum result.
Your last sentence is utter rubbish. How many Leavers campaigned for May’s deal? ...
Nearly all Leavers (with the notable exception of Patrick Minford) campaigned for a form of Brexit like May's deal:
- A 'free trade area from Ireland to Turkey': Tick - A deal which protects supply chains: Tick - An end to free movement: Tick - Out of the CAP: Tick - Out of the CFP: Tick - End to ever-closer union: Tick - No even hypothetical chance of getting involved in an EU Army: Tick - An end to ECJ jurisdiction in UK domestic law: Tick - An end to megapayments to the EU: Tick - Possibility of agreeing our own trade deals: Only half a tick, I concede
I've no idea why they no longer favour these things, but as I said, the fact that they don't means we no longer should feel obliged to respect the result of the first people's vote. If they don't want to take Yes for an answer, why on earth should those who preferred No in the first place disagree with their new position that the Brexit campaigned for is worse than Remain?
Comments
They really need to have it out. In public. With blood on the floor. When they have decided what they want, then, and only then can we begin to move on.
Which given the fragility of her majority, is UTTERLY incomprehensible behaviour.
- Deal
- No Deal
- Remain
is it splits the Leave vote. You could quite conceivably have Remain at 48% and the other two at 26% each. You would need the single transferable voting system (I think that's the right one?) in which voters give their first and second choice, so that if no answer receives 50%+ it goes to a second round of counting. In that scenario, ironically after everything, 'Deal' could quite well come through the middle, being the second preference for both No Dealers and Remainers (well, most of them).
Is the above just a short way of saying, to save all the hassle the MPs should just back May's deal?
Corbyn will be PM by Xmas in those circumstances.
And, to give him his due, he really does pay more than lip service to the concept of a member-led party. He has accepted the party position on Trident, despite it being diametrically opposed to his personal view.
2 years of this chicken licken sky is falling berating of the public.
It's been tried and is about to fail - time for something different and better.
You also need to look longer term. If we offer the referendum you suggest, there will be a whole swathe of mainly older voters, most of whom are staunch Tories, who will never vote again. We will be handing the country to a Corbynite Labour Party for a generation.
If you think that’s worse than crashing out, I strongly disagree.
This Deal
Not This Deal (which includes the uncertainty of no deal and other deals)
and Remain
May should be promoting her deal as the Goldilocks solution.
The reconstruction era will have to be led by somebody not tainted by this deal. She does not have the moral authority to ask remainers and leavers, to suddenly ignore years of abuse, disingenuous briefings, and general failure to be consulted, and suddenly fall in line behind her as she proclaims herself a born-again healer.
Truth and reconciliation will have to be done by somebody not tainted by May.
From noises off, sounds like Gove might be offering up his services to serve as temporary PM for the duration of the EEA/EFTA pivot.
I think Labour could be encouraged to get behind that if Gove is prepared to sweeten the deal.
How a trade deal with the US could go...
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46355299
May has her faults but I think that anyone who brought a deal with the EU back to the Commons as it is constituted would be getting the same treatment.
The ERG would remain twats, and too many MPs who voted to trigger A50 weren't prepared to accept that to so meant that they were running down the clock for leaving.
The EU have no incentive to make big concessions to the UK and risk other nations thinking of leaving the EU
What about those who wanted (3), but 'wargamed' the situation into realising they'd get (1)? Maybe they should switch to LEAVE to get (4) (their second preference)?
If there is to be a consensus in Parliament, and Parliament will need to come to this view rather quickly, Norway+ looks to me like it has the easiest path to getting enough Labour, SNP, DUP, LD nods to be viable.
This, of course, is the discussion May should have been having with Parliament a while ago. Certainly after her disastrous election fiasco, ideally before invoking A50.
Still, better late than never I guess.
Referendum, local elections, euro-election, all in the space of 6 months.
Get in!
We would do better on Brexit if everyone's memory was wiped and we looked at the three options in front of us (and the fact that no deal is default) and made a choice based on what looks good going forward.
It is as predictable as Jezza will propose free uni at the last GE and at the next legal weed.
We are heading for No Deal anyway.
If that means Corbyn PM, then there we go.
He'll claim to want a Jobs First brexit. He'll promise unicorns and cake in abundance.
Meanwhile, May will be quoting tractor production stats from the people's commissariat for agricultural output and wondering why she isn't getting applause.
The interesting point about Fallon's intervention is not his opposition to her deal but the pointed refusal from a natural ally to commit to backing her in a future no confidence vote, suggesting to me that she is now odds on to lose one when it comes in December.
If the EU issue ever becomes settled, they'll return to being non-entities, instead of the really important people they feel they deserve to be.
Reading the leavers on this website I am inclined to agree with you.
When even Fallon has had enough the writing is on the wall.
Does it need distinguishing from a different people's vote campaign without the hashtag?
And if you must insist on it, why don't you at least make it useful, with a link, like this #peoplesvote?
Personally, I think the most likely outcome of voting down this deal is that we Remain or Leave on even closer terms (e.g. full SM/CU permanently) than we have on the table now.
At every point I expect the ERG and other leading Leavers to blame everyone but themselves.
May has integrity and a sense of duty, even when I don’t agree with her and her hamfisted approach to politics.
Boris has neither.
That should end at school, but Westminster has a very peculiar culture.
No crack cocaine and he would have remained host of HIGNFY. Boris would not have found exposure on the show that gave him a platform to run for mayor. If he hadn't run for mayor, he would not have nudged the Leave campaign over 50%.
Damn you Angus. You're almost as bad as the producer that cast Trump on the Apprentice.
He backed Brexit to advance his career, he flounced out of the Cabinet to advance his career, and he'd campaign to join the Euro if it would advance his career.
The other aspect is the lamentable lack of preparation for "No Deal" though how much of that is part of Project Fear to scare people into backing the Deal remains to be seen.
What is it with the demonisation of anyone who represents the majority of the country that actually wants to leave the EU in a meaningful way?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0bsvdw3/inside-the-foreign-office-series-1-2-brave-new-world
So surely we leave on 29 March next year with some sort of deal, either this one with TM still in place or with something different under a new tory PM?
His job depends on somehow avoiding a catastrophic shellacking for his boss, which by this point, barring a miracle, seems now absolutely certain.
His solution was a powerpoint presentation.
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1067397558828453888
- A 'free trade area from Ireland to Turkey': Tick
- A deal which protects supply chains: Tick
- An end to free movement: Tick
- Out of the CAP: Tick
- Out of the CFP: Tick
- End to ever-closer union: Tick
- No even hypothetical chance of getting involved in an EU Army: Tick
- An end to ECJ jurisdiction in UK domestic law: Tick
- An end to megapayments to the EU: Tick
- Possibility of agreeing our own trade deals: Only half a tick, I concede
I've no idea why they no longer favour these things, but as I said, the fact that they don't means we no longer should feel obliged to respect the result of the first people's vote. If they don't want to take Yes for an answer, why on earth should those who preferred No in the first place disagree with their new position that the Brexit campaigned for is worse than Remain?