If Remain is on the option for a second referendum then they better have a very good definition of what 'Remain' means in terms what we're re-signing to.
IE Euro or no Euro, Schlengen or no Schlengen etc...
Will we have that?
Again you're trying to make up complications that don't exist. Nobody is interested in making Britain join the Euro or Schengen. The Eurozone have got enough problems as it is without adding unwilling members.
But the PM would be wise to get a public assurance to that effect from the Commission and/or other member states, since this is a story that anti-EU people are likely to tell.
Indeed. Thats why the terms/ costs of 'Remain' would need to be clear before the vote. If that was feasible fine, if not, then there's a problem.
Edit: how, you ask! Well of course I have absolutely no idea but when you have ruled out two impossible things before breakfast...
Because it won't be May fronting it by then? It will be Boris's Deal or Hunt's Deal - the same as May's deal because the EU won't budge, but with a new badge. Maybe?
That's possible.
I say go tell it to the marines. The plain fact is we have the best deal available given the need to protect the integrity of N. I. This pretence that someone else couls magic up a quick easy and better deal is simply a repeat of the nonsense we've had from the ERG types from Day1. They do not have a clue whatthey are talking about have NEVER offered a clear bluepring for Brexit at any stage from before the Referendum until now. They should hang their heads in shame. Of course the deal is crap - that is what leaving the EU means!
The reason, I think, Tories are letting this ritual humiliation play out (and at this point I think it's hard to argue it's going to be anything else) is that since May claiming "this deal is the best possible outcome" is the hill she's decided to die on, that this humiliation *has to happen* first before anything else can.
It's going to be a brutal, bloody, public, historically-unparalleled bully-ramming of quite unseemly scale. May is going to be routed, humiliated and then casually discarded in a way that she doesn't truly deserve.
But it has to happen. The Humiliation of May has become a fixed point in the political timeline, nothing can happen until it has happened.
"Among the mysteries of our time is why some of those in Britain who’ve fought hardest to see the nation freed from the shackles of the European Union are in the forefront of the campaign to kill of Theresa May’s hard-won Brexit deal."
It is not really a mystery - it is the wrong kind of Brexit. That is all there is to it.
To jettison the package now, after so much blood, sweat and tears, would be an historic act of national stupidity.
The "... historic act of national stupidity ..." was Cameron agreeing to have the referendum on such lax standards (50% + 1 vote) in the first place. Most countries set a level of 66% for constitutional stuff.
The precedent in UK is for 50% + 1 AV, National assemblies (Wales was on a pitiful turnout as well, I recall) Scotland for independence. To legislate and raise the bar in future may be sensible.
"Among the mysteries of our time is why some of those in Britain who’ve fought hardest to see the nation freed from the shackles of the European Union are in the forefront of the campaign to kill of Theresa May’s hard-won Brexit deal."
It is not really a mystery - it is the wrong kind of Brexit. That is all there is to it.
To jettison the package now, after so much blood, sweat and tears, would be an historic act of national stupidity.
It doesn't matter how much blood, sweat and tears there have been if the deal is utterly unacceptable.
But the fact there's been so much blood, sweat and tears is why its not impossible that the EU will be flexible on one issue to keep what they've spent their blood, sweat and tears on for all the other issues.
But the EU were flexible, they wanted NI in a customs territory of its own with the backstop originally !
Indeed so they could be more flexible still if the deal is rejected. It's not impossible and they've got 2 years of very successful negotiations (plus £39bn) to save by agreeing to compromise if it fixes Parliament's concerns.
"Among the mysteries of our time is why some of those in Britain who’ve fought hardest to see the nation freed from the shackles of the European Union are in the forefront of the campaign to kill of Theresa May’s hard-won Brexit deal."
It is not really a mystery - it is the wrong kind of Brexit. That is all there is to it.
To jettison the package now, after so much blood, sweat and tears, would be an historic act of national stupidity.
The "... historic act of national stupidity ..." was Cameron agreeing to have the referendum on such lax standards (50% + 1 vote) in the first place. Most countries set a level of 66% for constitutional stuff.
Presumably the SNP would be happy for that bar in a future independance vote then...
If Remain is on the option for a second referendum then they better have a very good definition of what 'Remain' means in terms what we're re-signing to.
IE Euro or no Euro, Schlengen or no Schlengen etc...
Will we have that?
If it is Remain before next March we just stay in on current terms and never Brexit and leave the EU at all
"Among the mysteries of our time is why some of those in Britain who’ve fought hardest to see the nation freed from the shackles of the European Union are in the forefront of the campaign to kill of Theresa May’s hard-won Brexit deal."
It is not really a mystery - it is the wrong kind of Brexit. That is all there is to it.
To jettison the package now, after so much blood, sweat and tears, would be an historic act of national stupidity.
The "... historic act of national stupidity ..." was Cameron agreeing to have the referendum on such lax standards (50% + 1 vote) in the first place. Most countries set a level of 66% for constitutional stuff.
That varies from place to place. But what was eccentric about Cameron was that he called a referendum on something he didn't want to do, and didn't have a plan for. Usually when a PM calls a constitutional referendum it's because they actually want to change the constitution, and have a specific way they want to do it.
That said, TBF very direct-democracy-ish places have ballot propositions that aren't called by the government in the first place, with signature thresholds or whatever.
"Among the mysteries of our time is why some of those in Britain who’ve fought hardest to see the nation freed from the shackles of the European Union are in the forefront of the campaign to kill of Theresa May’s hard-won Brexit deal."
It is not really a mystery - it is the wrong kind of Brexit. That is all there is to it.
To jettison the package now, after so much blood, sweat and tears, would be an historic act of national stupidity.
The "... historic act of national stupidity ..." was Cameron agreeing to have the referendum on such lax standards (50% + 1 vote) in the first place. Most countries set a level of 66% for constitutional stuff.
So lets have a "shall we revoke Article 50" referendum on your proposed model.
66%+1 and we revoke Article 50, less than that we continue to leave.
Or are you not so keen on a higher threshold when it hurts your side?
If there is a referenum it should be a two stage question
1)- Do you still wish to leave the EU?
if 'Yes' to 1 then
2) Do you wish to accept the negioated deal with the EU
If No to do then no-deal.
Fraught with difficulty. The order of the questions materially affects the result.
We have multiple options, I can't see how a binary choice works here.
There are three clear outcomes today, we need to focus on that.
1) Leave with this deal 2) Leave without this deal 3) Remain
That's it. There is no other outcome.
The problem then is what happens if the vote is for no deal?
We're no closer to fixing that issue and have even less time to sort that out. At the very least they should be preparing for that now regardless of what happens.
Then we leave without this deal. It may well be brutal. But that will be the people's choice.
How the govt executes that is unclear today and will be for sometime. But we have no choice, there is no plan B and will be no plan B agreed and ready to put to the people.
So what you get with (2) is a mandate for the govt to find the best scenario outside May's deal and Remain (including No Deal). It's what the ERG wants.
Thinking about it they should be sorting that out right now. The deal is dead and people have already voted against remaining.
Even if no deal won the referendum then the same arguments against it will still apply...people didn't know what they were voting for, they are all loon/racists/evil, it will be total chaos, remain is a better option etc.
The vote solves nothing.
You can warp it round to your way of thinking as much as you like - but nobody voted for No Deal.
Some people did, found a few votes in favour of it yesterday !
4 in 10 leave voters in 2016 said they would vote leave even if it meant a close family member losing their job. Clearly there was - two years ago at least - a large proportion of the leave vote that wanted out regardless of the economic consequences, and thus presumably now would be okay with No Deal.
Is this second referendum everyone seems so keen on advisory or post legislative ? If the former it could just be a rerun of the first and solve nothing. If the later then we need to nail down water tight legal definitions of the options which makes having one before 29/3/19 even more for the birds than before.
That gives May's deal a head start as it's undeniably a fully drafted internal treaty which the other side has agreed on. But even then only the WA bit. You can't have a post legislative referendum on the PD as it's non binding.
How do you legally guarentee a No Deal ? No deal ever ? On anything ? Even if international courts later found we owed the £19bn liabilities ?
Remain is the easiest to draft as it just means revoking A50. But even there we would need to niwcwaut for the CJEU filling and see what if any conditions EUCO attached.
I think we will have another referendum on Europe sooner rather than later. But I'm still unconvinced a referendum on which of the blocked exits from our burning building we should try will help.
The primary issue is the exits are all blocked and the building is burning.
If I was doing it I'd make the Deal and Remain options binding.
No Deal would be a mess though, I don't think you can really make the referendum mean "we will never sign another deal", so all it can really mean is "not *this* deal", but then the Leave side will argue that it means a renegotiation and quite possibly win on that basis, which then turns out not to be possible but now you're lumbered with Brexit Means Brexit Squared.
Even "Deal" though is only the WA. We have some pages of intent on fish, CAP, immigration etc etc and doubtless the direction of travel on these is set, so no we won't be in current the CFP, yes FOM will end as we know it. But without knowing exact details it's always possible to claim illegitimacy after the fact. "I voted for the deal, thinking we'd get 95% of our fish back, now it's only 65% after ten years, and the Danes have an extra 20% whiting concession on Dogger Bank, I'm not happy, we wuz robbed. I want another vote".
It just goes on. I just don't see how a second referendum does not fall foul or being called "illegitimate" without some real cause.
"Among the mysteries of our time is why some of those in Britain who’ve fought hardest to see the nation freed from the shackles of the European Union are in the forefront of the campaign to kill of Theresa May’s hard-won Brexit deal."
It is not really a mystery - it is the wrong kind of Brexit. That is all there is to it.
To jettison the package now, after so much blood, sweat and tears, would be an historic act of national stupidity.
It doesn't matter how much blood, sweat and tears there have been if the deal is utterly unacceptable.
But the fact there's been so much blood, sweat and tears is why its not impossible that the EU will be flexible on one issue to keep what they've spent their blood, sweat and tears on for all the other issues.
PS did you see my reply to you on the aces May threw away?
Juncker has made quite clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the EU will not give way on the backstop.
End of conversation. It is either this Deal, permanent Customs Union and/or Single Market or EUref2 and Remain or No Deal there is no alternative
May at an agricultural show in Powys. Clearly this will have a major impact on wavering MPs.
Not.
Surreal.
Whether you are for or against her you have to give her credit for standing up for her deal under immense pressure
I am amazed she hasn't had enough but that may come after the vote but that changes nothing. This impasse is total and it looks very difficult to see the way through it
Another referendum is one way but I caution those putting it forward that it will not be a walk in the park and indeed it is certain to be nasty, angry, and divisive
If there is a referenum it should be a two stage question
1)- Do you still wish to leave the EU?
if 'Yes' to 1 then
2) Do you wish to accept the negioated deal with the EU
If No to do then no-deal.
Fraught with difficulty. The order of the questions materially affects the result.
We have multiple options, I can't see how a binary choice works here.
There are three clear outcomes today, we need to focus on that.
1) Leave with this deal 2) Leave without this deal 3) Remain
That's it. There is no other outcome.
The problem then is what happens if the vote is for no deal?
We're no closer to fixing that issue and have even less time to sort that out. At the very least they should be preparing for that now regardless of what happens.
Then we leave without this deal. It may well be brutal. But that will be the people's choice.
How the govt executes that is unclear today and will be for sometime. But we have no choice, there is no plan B and will be no plan B agreed and ready to put to the people.
So what you get with (2) is a mandate for the govt to find the best scenario outside May's deal and Remain (including No Deal). It's what the ERG wants.
Thinking about it they should be sorting that out right now. The deal is dead and people have already voted against remaining.
Even if no deal won the referendum then the same arguments against it will still apply...people didn't know what they were voting for, they are all loon/racists/evil, it will be total chaos, remain is a better option etc.
The vote solves nothing.
You can warp it round to your way of thinking as much as you like - but nobody voted for No Deal.
Some people did, found a few votes in favour of it yesterday !
4 in 10 leave voters in 2016 said they would vote leave even if it meant a close family member losing their job. Clearly there was - two years ago at least - a large proportion of the leave vote that wanted out regardless of the economic consequences, and thus presumably now would be okay with No Deal.
Indeed. The resilience of Leave in the face of political carpet bombing for two and a half years is worthy of note.
The reason, I think, Tories are letting this ritual humiliation play out (and at this point I think it's hard to argue it's going to be anything else) is that since May claiming "this deal is the best possible outcome" is the hill she's decided to die on, that this humiliation *has to happen* first before anything else can.
It's going to be a brutal, bloody, public, historically-unparalleled bully-ramming of quite unseemly scale. May is going to be routed, humiliated and then casually discarded in a way that she doesn't truly deserve.
But it has to happen. The Humiliation of May has become a fixed point in the political timeline, nothing can happen until it has happened.
May has done the hard work to get a Deal, unfortunately fanatics like you are prepared to risk No Deal and economic disaster and recession and huge damage to UK manufacturing and the City for the purest of Brexits
It's democracy, sweetheart. I'm simply saying that this democratic decision is a mind-bogglingly idiotic one and those who voted for it likely to be mind-boggling idiots. You, for example.
The ballot paper was indeed only REMAIN or LEAVE. But let's be honest, it was a binary choice for a non-binary decision. I can easily split into SEVEN the type of EU positions that could be taken:
1. Hard core USE - think the UK should dissolve itself and become the USE as its founding member, with Euro membership, Schengen and the rest. 2. Ever closer unionists - think the UK should drift towards closer Union, but still be a nominally separate country. Euro membership and Schengen eventually happen. 3. Status Quo Remainers - What it says on the tin. 4. EEA's - What it says on the tin 5. EFTA - Likewise, what it says on the tin (so going for Switzerland) 6. FTA - UK out of EU completely but try and get a free trade agreement 7. Hard core NO dealers - Out, and out and forget the rest of the world. WTO rules all the way.
I'm sure I haven't even covered all the bases. The vote drew a line between (1)-(3) and (4)-(7), and trying to lump those who believe in (7) with those who want (4) is moronic. There are other options, but the government, not the voters, have botched it good style. They should have took stock and considered a second vote with options 4-7 back in the Autumn of 2016.
Don't blame the voters. Blame Cameron, blame May, blame those before them. But it's not the voters fault and you whining 'I don't like Democracy' shows you up.
I want (4). I still think there is time for (4) but can't see it happening now.
If Remain is on the option for a second referendum then they better have a very good definition of what 'Remain' means in terms what we're re-signing to.
IE Euro or no Euro, Schlengen or no Schlengen etc...
Will we have that?
If it is Remain before next March we just stay in on current terms and never Brexit and leave the EU at all
I mean, I think there'd have to be legislation to essentially revert the great repeal bill, reinstate the Single European Act and the primacy of the acquis communautaire and the CJEU. I don't think it's quite as simple as a vote in the Council and boom, Brexit is gone.
We've legislatively positioned ourselves for a transition period that may now never come.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
The reason, I think, Tories are letting this ritual humiliation play out (and at this point I think it's hard to argue it's going to be anything else) is that since May claiming "this deal is the best possible outcome" is the hill she's decided to die on, that this humiliation *has to happen* first before anything else can.
It's going to be a brutal, bloody, public, historically-unparalleled bully-ramming of quite unseemly scale. May is going to be routed, humiliated and then casually discarded in a way that she doesn't truly deserve.
But it has to happen. The Humiliation of May has become a fixed point in the political timeline, nothing can happen until it has happened.
Generally I agree but history may not be as unkind as looks likely.
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
"Among the mysteries of our time is why some of those in Britain who’ve fought hardest to see the nation freed from the shackles of the European Union are in the forefront of the campaign to kill of Theresa May’s hard-won Brexit deal."
It is not really a mystery - it is the wrong kind of Brexit. That is all there is to it.
To jettison the package now, after so much blood, sweat and tears, would be an historic act of national stupidity.
It doesn't matter how much blood, sweat and tears there have been if the deal is utterly unacceptable.
But the fact there's been so much blood, sweat and tears is why its not impossible that the EU will be flexible on one issue to keep what they've spent their blood, sweat and tears on for all the other issues.
PS did you see my reply to you on the aces May threw away?
Juncker has made quite clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the EU will not give way on the backstop.
End of conversation. It is either this Deal, permanent Customs Union and/or Single Market or EUref2 and Remain or No Deal there is no alternative
So frigging what that he has made clear it doesn't matter one jot! That's about as meaningless as quoting one of your stupid surveys and quoting it as the word of God.
Juncker has a deal and wants it ratified, if he says "reject this and we'll renegotiate" then it won't get ratified. He has to say this is it, for the same reason Cameron had to say he wouldn't resign if we voted for Brexit. If its rejected though, he needs to face that reality.
@Richard_Nabavi - I cannot agree with you. I have changed my mind on this.
Leaving with no deal is the only option that undoubtedly respects the Conservative manifesto of 2017. More importantly, it is the second-most popular option with the public, with the Deal in dismal 3rd place. If No Deal is not on the ballot, there will be very loud cries that the second referendum is illegitimate. I can then see us voting to Remain on a sub-50% turnout.
That really will clear the way for the rise of the Far Right.
To be clear, my personal preference is that MPs just vote for the Deal. There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of it happening.
If Remain is on the option for a second referendum then they better have a very good definition of what 'Remain' means in terms what we're re-signing to.
IE Euro or no Euro, Schlengen or no Schlengen etc...
Will we have that?
Again you're trying to make up complications that don't exist. Nobody is interested in making Britain join the Euro or Schengen. The Eurozone have got enough problems as it is without adding unwilling members.
But the PM would be wise to get a public assurance to that effect from the Commission and/or other member states, since this is a story that anti-EU people are likely to tell.
Not going to be believed whatever they say. Has not Juncker stated you have to lie sometimes? We weren't having an EU army in June 2016, but there's Macron banging the pulpit for one, with Merkel clapping along.
The Commission's ability to be seen as impartial is long over, I'm afraid.
You really want to tie Remain in with the Euro and Schlengen...
Oh BOY...
No, I'm saying I would rather be in if it was my choice. I recognise it isn't my choice or an option.
Surely what should be on any new referendum is whether the UK is prepared to sign up to ever closer union in general and specifically Juncker's vision of EU sovereignty replacing that of nation states, because that is where they intend to take us:
"The European Union must turn into a major sovereign power on the global stage making the world in its image, Jean-Claude Juncker has said, setting out plans to make Europe militarily and economically independent from its traditional ally the US. In his state of the union speech, titled The Hour of European Sovereignty, the European commission president appealed to MEPs and heads of government to give the EU the powers and characteristics traditionally restricted to states."
The reason, I think, Tories are letting this ritual humiliation play out (and at this point I think it's hard to argue it's going to be anything else) is that since May claiming "this deal is the best possible outcome" is the hill she's decided to die on, that this humiliation *has to happen* first before anything else can.
It's going to be a brutal, bloody, public, historically-unparalleled bully-ramming of quite unseemly scale. May is going to be routed, humiliated and then casually discarded in a way that she doesn't truly deserve.
But it has to happen. The Humiliation of May has become a fixed point in the political timeline, nothing can happen until it has happened.
May has done the hard work to get a Deal, unfortunately fanatics like you are prepared to risk No Deal and economic disaster and recession and huge damage to UK manufacturing and the City for the purest of Brexits
TBF, that is what the people of the UK voted for. I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people no matter how astonishingly cretinous.
"Among the mysteries of our time is why some of those in Britain who’ve fought hardest to see the nation freed from the shackles of the European Union are in the forefront of the campaign to kill of Theresa May’s hard-won Brexit deal."
It is not really a mystery - it is the wrong kind of Brexit. That is all there is to it.
To jettison the package now, after so much blood, sweat and tears, would be an historic act of national stupidity.
The "... historic act of national stupidity ..." was Cameron agreeing to have the referendum on such lax standards (50% + 1 vote) in the first place. Most countries set a level of 66% for constitutional stuff.
So lets have a "shall we revoke Article 50" referendum on your proposed model.
66%+1 and we revoke Article 50, less than that we continue to leave.
Or are you not so keen on a higher threshold when it hurts your side?
Frankly, I no longer care.
Wreck everything if that is what you want. I will at least have the entertainment of listening to Leaver's bleating that it is not their fault.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
It seems like enough potential letter writers are waiting for her to lose the vote and then submit the letters if she doesn't resign first. That way she doesn't have a 12 month immunity from new letters.
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
I think there is value in seeing her deal being voted down heavily.
Good question. Others are laughing without thinking but you've asked the good question.
Snip
Hearts - we don't know how May negotiated - we do know what Ken Clarke thinks of her
Diamonds - While the £39bn is non trivial its spread over several years - in the two years we are transitioning they'll spend ±£250bn - so while its substantial I doubt its a deal breaker.
Spades - Agree On the hindsight driven common criticisms of the government the one I have most sympathy with is "we let the EU do the drafting". I think initially we got off to a good start on the money and the EU were taken aback by our preparation - why we're at £39bn and not the £100bn that had been mooted. After that it went to pot. Dublin did a great job in Brussels getting the EU onside while we (Davis?) were too lazy or too shortsighted to see that coming. The backstop comes from the diplomatic job the Irish did (it wasn't present in the initial guidelines) and May had to sign up to it to get the December agreement. Had we been on our toes we'd have drafted what it meant and presented it to the EU, not the other way round. That was incompetent. All else has flowed from that.
On the 'we weren't prepared to invoke Article 50" - this ignores the political pressure the Remain supporting PM was under from both her own party and the opposition - who almost all wholeheartedly voted in favour of it.
Clubs: Another great hindsight observation - if she hadn't gone to the polls she would have forever been known as the PM who didn't call an election while sitting on double digit poll leads. What none of us quite understood at the time was how the referendum had transformed politics along Leave / Remain lines - with Mrs May hoovering up lots of the former while Magic Grandpa saw the former invest their hopes in him.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
I think there is value in seeing her deal being voted down heavily.
Yes because she won't go before a defeat and it also shows the EU that their deal is not acceptable to parliament.
May at an agricultural show in Powys. Clearly this will have a major impact on wavering MPs.
Not.
Surreal.
This is the next bit to go spectacularly wrong. May's invented this fantasy General Election campaign in which she's the only candidate and exists only in her head. For the first few day's the broadcasters will play along out if deference, novelty and a desire to slow down past the crash scene. But very soon reality will reimpose itself. The other political forces in Britain won't let the broadcasters keep giving her premium uninterrupted airtime for her fantasy. We'll soon have a hydraheaded national debate with at 6 distinct but overlapping Brecht options being aired. It's December on Saturday which means real Britain is basically doing Christmas there on in. This is going to be a sight to behold.
It's democracy, sweetheart. I'm simply saying that this democratic decision is a mind-bogglingly idiotic one and those who voted for it likely to be mind-boggling idiots. You, for example.
The ballot paper was indeed only REMAIN or LEAVE. But let's be honest, it was a binary choice for a non-binary decision. I can easily split into SEVEN the type of EU positions that could be taken:
1. Hard core USE - think the UK should dissolve itself and become the USE as its founding member, with Euro membership, Schengen and the rest. 2. Ever closer unionists - think the UK should drift towards closer Union, but still be a nominally separate country. Euro membership and Schengen eventually happen. 3. Status Quo Remainers - What it says on the tin. 4. EEA's - What it says on the tin 5. EFTA - Likewise, what it says on the tin (so going for Switzerland) 6. FTA - UK out of EU completely but try and get a free trade agreement 7. Hard core NO dealers - Out, and out and forget the rest of the world. WTO rules all the way.
I'm sure I haven't even covered all the bases. The vote drew a line between (1)-(3) and (4)-(7), and trying to lump those who believe in (7) with those who want (4) is moronic. There are other options, but the government, not the voters, have botched it good style. They should have took stock and considered a second vote with options 4-7 back in the Autumn of 2016.
Don't blame the voters. Blame Cameron, blame May, blame those before them. But it's not the voters fault and you whining 'I don't like Democracy' shows you up.
I want (4). I still think there is time for (4) but can't see it happening now.
If you voted leave you should have wargamed the most likely outcome. Surely no one in their right mind could have thought the Brexit *they* voted for would be the one we would end up with.
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
Well lets test out that theory....
At which point Juncker stands up at an EU press conference rips the Deal in half after Parliament rejects it and says we now go to No Deal, no more negotiation, it is up to Britain to learn the consequences of leaving the EU and the single market and customs union and wanting a complete break from the EU and it will serve as a lesson to others.
The EU can survive No Deal as only 16% of its exports come here, as 44% of UK exports go to the EU it will be much harder for us
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
Well lets test out that theory....
At which point Juncker stands up at an EU press conference rips the Deal in half afree Parliament rejects it and says we now go to No Deal, it is up to Britain to learn the consequences of leaving the EU and the single market and customs union and it will serve as a lesson to others.
The EU can survive No Deal as only 16% of its exports come here, as 44% of UK exports go to the EU it will be much harder for us
@Richard_Nabavi - I cannot agree with you. I have changed my mind on this.
Leaving with no deal is the only option that undoubtedly respects the Conservative manifesto of 2017. More importantly, it is the second-most popular option with the public, with the Deal in dismal 3rd place. If No Deal is not on the ballot, there will be very loud cries that the second referendum is illegitimate. I can then see us voting to Remain on a sub-50% turnout.
That really will clear the way for the rise of the Far Right.
To be clear, my personal preference is that MPs just vote for the Deal. There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of it happening.
Deal beats No Deal 34% to 27% head to head with Ashcroft's latest poll
The reason, I think, Tories are letting this ritual humiliation play out (and at this point I think it's hard to argue it's going to be anything else) is that since May claiming "this deal is the best possible outcome" is the hill she's decided to die on, that this humiliation *has to happen* first before anything else can.
It's going to be a brutal, bloody, public, historically-unparalleled bully-ramming of quite unseemly scale. May is going to be routed, humiliated and then casually discarded in a way that she doesn't truly deserve.
But it has to happen. The Humiliation of May has become a fixed point in the political timeline, nothing can happen until it has happened.
May has done the hard work to get a Deal, unfortunately fanatics like you are prepared to risk No Deal and economic disaster and recession and huge damage to UK manufacturing and the City for the purest of Brexits
TBF, that is what the people of the UK voted for. I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people no matter how astonishingly cretinous.
No Leave got to 52% promising 'the easiest Deal in history'
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
I think there is value in seeing her deal being voted down heavily.
Yes because she won't go before a defeat and it also shows the EU that their deal is not acceptable to parliament.
It didn't have to be thus, but the Bloody Difficult Woman has decided it must be thus.
But it's clearly too late for her and her deal to play a part in the reconstruction era that is to come. She's too tainted by the events of the past two years to now ask us all to come together under her truth and reconciliation committee as we pivot to Norway+/Remain
She cannot be that PM, and her deal cannot be that blueprint. Thus both need to die in a hail of arrows. To May's credit, she knows this. She has chosen the time and place of her final, heroic, doomed last stand.
All that remains now is for it to happen, exactly as it must.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
I think there is value in seeing her deal being voted down heavily.
My conclusion therefore is the obvious one that Plan B is a Remain/Deal referendum,
The flaw in that plan is that it would peeve many many Conservative MPs and many many voters who would be quite angry.
Nobody much would campaign for the deal - remain would probably win due to apathy - and the party would disintegrate.
It does kick the can down the road for a couple of months so it's right up TM's street.
Again, what other options are there?
If MPs really, really want to revoke A50, they should do so, and beg the EU to reconsider, and not try to duck their responsibility for doing so. It's about time MP's actually took responsibility for their behaviour. A loaded referendum which disregards the PPRA carries no legitimacy.
"Among the mysteries of our time is why some of those in Britain who’ve fought hardest to see the nation freed from the shackles of the European Union are in the forefront of the campaign to kill of Theresa May’s hard-won Brexit deal."
It is not really a mystery - it is the wrong kind of Brexit. That is all there is to it.
To jettison the package now, after so much blood, sweat and tears, would be an historic act of national stupidity.
The "... historic act of national stupidity ..." was Cameron agreeing to have the referendum on such lax standards (50% + 1 vote) in the first place. Most countries set a level of 66% for constitutional stuff.
My conclusion therefore is the obvious one that Plan B is a Remain/Deal referendum,
The flaw in that plan is that it would peeve many many Conservative MPs and many many voters who would be quite angry.
Nobody much would campaign for the deal - remain would probably win due to apathy - and the party would disintegrate.
It does kick the can down the road for a couple of months so it's right up TM's street.
Again, what other options are there?
If MPs really, really want to revoke A50, they should do so, and beg the EU to reconsider, and not try to duck their responsibility for doing so. It's about time MP's actually took responsibility for their behaviour. A loaded referendum which disregards the PPRA carries no legitimacy.
They can't do that without a referendum. The crys of a stitch up would, rightly be hugely damaging for our society
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
I think there is value in seeing her deal being voted down heavily.
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
Well lets test out that theory....
At which point Juncker stands up at an EU press conference rips the Deal in half after Parliament rejects it and says we now go to No Deal, no more negotiation
As long as they promise to have a video camera in the room when Juncker orders Leo Varadkar to get his transit van full of 2x4 down to the border and start building that fence.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
I think there is value in seeing her deal being voted down heavily.
It's democracy, sweetheart. I'm simply saying that this democratic decision is a mind-bogglingly idiotic one and those who voted for it likely to be mind-boggling idiots. You, for example.
The ballot paper was indeed only REMAIN or LEAVE. But let's be honest, it was a binary choice for a non-binary decision. I can easily split into SEVEN the type of EU positions that could be taken:
1. Hard core USE - think the UK should dissolve itself and become the USE as its founding member, with Euro membership, Schengen and the rest. 2. Ever closer unionists - think the UK should drift towards closer Union, but still be a nominally separate country. Euro membership and Schengen eventually happen. 3. Status Quo Remainers - What it says on the tin. 4. EEA's - What it says on the tin 5. EFTA - Likewise, what it says on the tin (so going for Switzerland) 6. FTA - UK out of EU completely but try and get a free trade agreement 7. Hard core NO dealers - Out, and out and forget the rest of the world. WTO rules all the way.
I'm sure I haven't even covered all the bases. The vote drew a line between (1)-(3) and (4)-(7), and trying to lump those who believe in (7) with those who want (4) is moronic. There are other options, but the government, not the voters, have botched it good style. They should have took stock and considered a second vote with options 4-7 back in the Autumn of 2016.
Don't blame the voters. Blame Cameron, blame May, blame those before them. But it's not the voters fault and you whining 'I don't like Democracy' shows you up.
I want (4). I still think there is time for (4) but can't see it happening now.
If you voted leave you should have wargamed the most likely outcome. Surely no one in their right mind could have thought the Brexit *they* voted for would be the one we would end up with.
The initial vote didn't offer 1-3. It offered 3b - a formalised relationship with the EU that differed from the existing Status Quo in ways that were never fully explored.
So the vote was between a 3b (which few people understood) and 4-7
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
I think there is value in seeing her deal being voted down heavily.
Two more lost weeks.....
ERG brexit is finished.
They had brexit and threw it away to spend a lifetime of saying 'why on earth did we do that'
If there is a referenum it should be a two stage question
1)- Do you still wish to leave the EU?
if 'Yes' to 1 then
2) Do you wish to accept the negioated deal with the EU
If No to do then no-deal.
Fraught with difficulty. The order of the questions materially affects the result.
We have multiple options, I can't see how a binary choice works here.
There are three clear outcomes today, we need to focus on that.
1) Leave with this deal 2) Leave without this deal 3) Remain
That's it. There is no other outcome.
The problem then is what happens if the vote is for no deal?
We're no closer to fixing that issue and have even less time to sort that out. At the very least they should be preparing for that now regardless of what happens.
Then we leave without this deal. It may well be brutal. But that will be the people's choice.
How the govt executes that is unclear today and will be for sometime. But we have no choice, there is no plan B and will be no plan B agreed and ready to put to the people.
So what you get with (2) is a mandate for the govt to find the best scenario outside May's deal and Remain (including No Deal). It's what the ERG wants.
Thinking about it they should be sorting that out right now. The deal is dead and people have already voted against remaining.
Even if no deal won the referendum then the same arguments against it will still apply...people didn't know what they were voting for, they are all loon/racists/evil, it will be total chaos, remain is a better option etc.
The vote solves nothing.
You can warp it round to your way of thinking as much as you like - but nobody voted for No Deal.
Some people did, found a few votes in favour of it yesterday !
4 in 10 leave voters in 2016 said they would vote leave even if it meant a close family member losing their job. Clearly there was - two years ago at least - a large proportion of the leave vote that wanted out regardless of the economic consequences, and thus presumably now would be okay with No Deal.
Note that they are happy with somebody else losing their job. Is that the pensioner view?
The Deal offers the best chance of avoiding catastrophe.
It's a shame you didn't listen to people who suggested 'catastrophe' might happen if we voted leave.
But that was just Project Fear. Apparently ...
Put a Remainer in charge and this is what you get. No wonder we doubted both the capability and the same but I if Remainers.
May may have been a remainer, but firstly, that is a risk you took when you voted leave: there was no guarantee you would get who you wanted in charge.
Secondly, there is absolutely zero evidence that any leaver could have performed this task any better. You might hope they could, but given the apparent skills of the likes of Johnson and Fox, it is highly unlikely.
Too many leavers are unwilling to compromise. Their position should have been sorted and solidified before the referendum, and not after. We are now facing the consequences.
This sort of mess was not only predictable with hindsight; it was predicted.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
I think there is value in seeing her deal being voted down heavily.
Two more lost weeks.....
ERG brexit is finished.
They had brexit and threw it away to spend a lifetime of saying 'why on earth did we do that'
The Deal offers the best chance of avoiding catastrophe.
It's a shame you didn't listen to people who suggested 'catastrophe' might happen if we voted leave.
But that was just Project Fear. Apparently ...
Put a Remainer in charge and this is what you get. No wonder we doubted both the capability and the same but I if Remainers.
May may have been a remainer, but firstly, that is a risk you took when you voted leave: there was no guarantee you would get who you wanted in charge.
Secondly, there is absolutely zero evidence that any leaver could have performed this task any better. You might hope they could, but given the apparent skills of the likes of Johnson and Fox, it is highly unlikely.
Too many leavers are unwilling to compromise. Their position should have been sorted and solidified before the referendum, and not after. We are now facing the consequences.
This sort of mess was not only predictable with hindsight; it was predicted.
Leavers have taken to complaining that Theresa May is a Remainer. They have been oddly reticent about identifying the Leave titan who would have done the job better. Funny that.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
I think there is value in seeing her deal being voted down heavily.
Two more lost weeks.....
ERG brexit is finished.
They had brexit and threw it away to spend a lifetime of saying 'why on earth did we do that'
Maybe they'll join the SDP with Patrick O'Flynn.
In all seriousness, though. Part of the ERG's shtick is they enjoy the attention of being serial malcontents and irritants. They don't need Brexit to do that.
I think they'll quickly pivot to other causes to undermine, degrade, frustrate and infuriate the Tory leadership with.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
I think there is value in seeing her deal being voted down heavily.
Two more lost weeks.....
ERG brexit is finished.
They had brexit and threw it away to spend a lifetime of saying 'why on earth did we do that'
Its dead because you say so ?
The general consensus is that ERG brexit is not going to happen, ie no deal
That leaving the EU would be so difficult is of course not a reason not to leave but what is astonishing is that Leavers are astonished that it would be so difficult.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
If the referendum is between Deal and Remain, turnout will be very low. It will store up trouble for the future.
@Richard_Nabavi - I cannot agree with you. I have changed my mind on this.
Leaving with no deal is the only option that undoubtedly respects the Conservative manifesto of 2017. More importantly, it is the second-most popular option with the public, with the Deal in dismal 3rd place. If No Deal is not on the ballot, there will be very loud cries that the second referendum is illegitimate. I can then see us voting to Remain on a sub-50% turnout.
That really will clear the way for the rise of the Far Right.
To be clear, my personal preference is that MPs just vote for the Deal. There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of it happening.
Deal beats No Deal 34% to 27% head to head with Ashcroft's latest poll
That leaves a lot of people still to come off the fence. If - as I suspect - the narrative on any second vote gets turned into "who governs Britain, the MPs or the voters?", it could get very messy....
He claims Labour want a 2 option people's vote - this deal or remain
Given Labour has rubbished May's deal, that means they are campaigning for Remain.
That's ideal for them, though. They can continue to face both ways, telling Remainers that they shafted Brexit, and telling Leavers that if only they'd been in charge, Brexit would gone ahead in a glorious Labour jobs-first version, which sadly wasn't possible because the Tories screwed up.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
What about a Jobs First No Deal? Or a People's No Deal?
The Deal offers the best chance of avoiding catastrophe.
It's a shame you didn't listen to people who suggested 'catastrophe' might happen if we voted leave.
But that was just Project Fear. Apparently ...
Put a Remainer in charge and this is what you get. No wonder we doubted both the capability and the same but I if Remainers.
May may have been a remainer, but firstly, that is a risk you took when you voted leave: there was no guarantee you would get who you wanted in charge.
Secondly, there is absolutely zero evidence that any leaver could have performed this task any better. You might hope they could, but given the apparent skills of the likes of Johnson and Fox, it is highly unlikely.
Too many leavers are unwilling to compromise. Their position should have been sorted and solidified before the referendum, and not after. We are now facing the consequences.
This sort of mess was not only predictable with hindsight; it was predicted.
Leavers have taken to complaining that Theresa May is a Remainer. They have been oddly reticent about identifying the Leave titan who would have done the job better. Funny that.
Boris is this mythical creation embodied. But he's less Leave titan, more leaving the Titanic.
That leaving the EU would be so difficult is of course not a reason not to leave but what is astonishing is that Leavers are astonished that it would be so difficult.
It is because we are so "baws deep" in the EU that leave won.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
I think there is value in seeing her deal being voted down heavily.
That leaving the EU would be so difficult is of course not a reason not to leave but what is astonishing is that Leavers are astonished that it would be so difficult.
I think the Brexit Buccaneers have learned the hardest possible way the old saying about never getting high on your own supply.
Mr. Blue, turnout will be lower than the first one but not down to council election type levels. I agree, however, that lower turnout will be one more bone of contention for the future.
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
Well lets test out that theory....
At which point Juncker stands up at an EU press conference rips the Deal in half after Parliament rejects it and says we now go to No Deal, no more negotiation, it is up to Britain to learn the consequences of leaving the EU and the single market and customs union and wanting a complete break from the EU and it will serve as a lesson to others.
The EU can survive No Deal as only 16% of its exports come here, as 44% of UK exports go to the EU it will be much harder for us
Like they ripped apart Maastricht, Nice and Lisbon?
History is against you. History shows that once the EU has an agreement they will give squeaky wheels just enough grease to get it through.
He claims Labour want a 2 option people's vote - this deal or remain
Given Labour has rubbished May's deal, that means they are campaigning for Remain.
That's ideal for them, though. They can continue to face both ways, telling Remainers that they shafted Brexit, and telling Leavers that if only they'd been in charge, Brexit would gone ahead in a glorious Labour jobs-first version, which sadly wasn't possible because the Tories screwed up.
I can see corbyn will do a classic corbyn and say something horseshit like I will agree with the decision of the wider party, like his supposed fudge on trident renewal.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
If the referendum is between Deal and Remain, turnout will be very low. It will store up trouble for the future.
I wouldn't be interested in voting to ratify a decision that MPs had already taken.
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
Well lets test out that theory....
At which point Juncker stands up at an EU press conference rips the Deal in half after Parliament rejects it and says we now go to No Deal, no more negotiation, it is up to Britain to learn the consequences of leaving the EU and the single market and customs union and wanting a complete break from the EU and it will serve as a lesson to others.
The EU can survive No Deal as only 16% of its exports come here, as 44% of UK exports go to the EU it will be much harder for us
Like they ripped apart Maastricht, Nice and Lisbon?
History is against you. History shows that once the EU has an agreement they will give squeaky wheels just enough grease to get it through.
But what wheels, what grease? May has been banging her head against the backstop all year. Boris may have a thicker skull, but I don't see any reason to believe he'd have more success.
@Richard_Nabavi - I cannot agree with you. I have changed my mind on this.
Leaving with no deal is the only option that undoubtedly respects the Conservative manifesto of 2017. More importantly, it is the second-most popular option with the public, with the Deal in dismal 3rd place. If No Deal is not on the ballot, there will be very loud cries that the second referendum is illegitimate. I can then see us voting to Remain on a sub-50% turnout.
That really will clear the way for the rise of the Far Right.
To be clear, my personal preference is that MPs just vote for the Deal. There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of it happening.
Deal beats No Deal 34% to 27% head to head with Ashcroft's latest poll
That leaves a lot of people still to come off the fence. If - as I suspect - the narrative on any second vote gets turned into "who governs Britain, the MPs or the voters?", it could get very messy....
I think it would be a nasty and dreadful experience that makes matters worse, if that is possible
I think May must have her chance to win the MV. I don't see how she can at present, I don't see how it can even be close, but she must get a chance.
If the vote is decisively against, 100+, as looks nailed on at the moment she will need to resign. She has failed to carry Parliament with her in her journey to this deal and she will have failed to convince a meaningful proportion of her own party. It will be time for someone else to have a go.
My guess then is that we will have Hunt or Javid as PM. They will go back to Brussels to seek more time and some re-negotiation. They are likely to get the former but not the latter except in the most flimsy of ways. Some progress on the political statement is possible and that might give some assurance to those worried about the backstop and other provisions of the WA which tie us into EU law.
What do we do then? I'm not sure but a referendum on the new improved deal is increasingly a possibility. It could be yes or no of course in which case the alternative is a no deal Brexit but I think that we have gone past that. It seems likely that remain will be on the ballot paper although we will need clarity of what remain would mean and that what we think it would mean is acceptable to the EU. We might even find that the EU doesn't really fancy the UK being a continuing member and is not minded to grant the option.
All roads seem to point to May having to go - and go now. She's going to lose the vote, massively. Get the letters in, get her gone, save her the embarrassment. For one thing, it amply demonstrates how toxic this deal is in the UK in language the EU understand: "My god, she lost her job! Unthinkable....."
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
That is just plain silly. This deal needs full exposure to the HOC. The agenda can only move on after the vote. And as for a quick installation of a new leader that will not happen with the two extremes in my party fighting like rats in a sack
The site is full od Don Qs today tilting at unicorns - all will be easy peasy once May is gone. The EU will roll over and play ball. I cannot believe I'm reading it.
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
Yes exactly - and also because no even vaguely sane minister is going to commit the country to the chaos, having heard the industry and civil service briefings.
If the referendum is between Deal and Remain, turnout will be very low. It will store up trouble for the future.
Still better than crashing out, which is unthinkable, and would store up hugely more trouble. For Remainers who supported going ahead with Brexit on the basis that the democratic decision had to be respected, the fact that Leavers are no longer happy with the Brexit they campaigned for removes the obligation to respect the referendum result.
If the deal is rejected by Parliament , then a new Con leader with some skill could return to Brussels with say a top 10 concerns, get 5-6 of them fudged and the deal could very well pass if the revisions were sold well.
No he could not. Barnier and Juncker have made abundantly clear it is this Deal or No Deal and the backstop is non negotiable
Well lets test out that theory....
At which point Juncker stands up at an EU press conference rips the Deal in half after Parliament rejects it and says we now go to No Deal, no more negotiation, it is up to Britain to learn the consequences of leaving the EU and the single market and customs union and wanting a complete break from the EU and it will serve as a lesson to others.
The EU can survive No Deal as only 16% of its exports come here, as 44% of UK exports go to the EU it will be much harder for us
Like they ripped apart Maastricht, Nice and Lisbon?
History is against you. History shows that once the EU has an agreement they will give squeaky wheels just enough grease to get it through.
No History gives no credence at all to countries voting to leave the EU and refusing to accept the terms offered by the EU for a Deal getting anything for that as there is no precedent for that. Maastricht, Nice and Lisbon were internal EU Treaties with continuing EU mber states.
If we reject this deal Juncker and Barnier will in effect do a De Gaulle and say 'sod off Britain' then and we face the worst economic crisis and potential recession since perhaps the 1930s, and a market collapse perhaps even worse than 2008
Comments
But that was just Project Fear. Apparently ...
It's going to be a brutal, bloody, public, historically-unparalleled bully-ramming of quite unseemly scale. May is going to be routed, humiliated and then casually discarded in a way that she doesn't truly deserve.
But it has to happen. The Humiliation of May has become a fixed point in the political timeline, nothing can happen until it has happened.
AV, National assemblies (Wales was on a pitiful turnout as well, I recall) Scotland for independence.
To legislate and raise the bar in future may be sensible.
Is he near some Welsh hills?
That said, TBF very direct-democracy-ish places have ballot propositions that aren't called by the government in the first place, with signature thresholds or whatever.
66%+1 and we revoke Article 50, less than that we continue to leave.
Or are you not so keen on a higher threshold when it hurts your side?
It just goes on. I just don't see how a second referendum does not fall foul or being called "illegitimate" without some real cause.
End of conversation. It is either this Deal, permanent Customs Union and/or Single Market or EUref2 and Remain or No Deal there is no alternative
(Since it's nearly Christmas, I'm guessing not. But you know that little minx will find some if there are.)
I am amazed she hasn't had enough but that may come after the vote but that changes nothing. This impasse is total and it looks very difficult to see the way through it
Another referendum is one way but I caution those putting it forward that it will not be a walk in the park and indeed it is certain to be nasty, angry, and divisive
1. Hard core USE - think the UK should dissolve itself and become the USE as its founding member, with Euro membership, Schengen and the rest.
2. Ever closer unionists - think the UK should drift towards closer Union, but still be a nominally separate country. Euro membership and Schengen eventually happen.
3. Status Quo Remainers - What it says on the tin.
4. EEA's - What it says on the tin
5. EFTA - Likewise, what it says on the tin (so going for Switzerland)
6. FTA - UK out of EU completely but try and get a free trade agreement
7. Hard core NO dealers - Out, and out and forget the rest of the world. WTO rules all the way.
I'm sure I haven't even covered all the bases.
The vote drew a line between (1)-(3) and (4)-(7), and trying to lump those who believe in (7) with those who want (4) is moronic. There are other options, but the government, not the voters, have botched it good style. They should have took stock and considered a second vote with options 4-7 back in the Autumn of 2016.
Don't blame the voters. Blame Cameron, blame May, blame those before them. But it's not the voters fault and you whining 'I don't like Democracy' shows you up.
I want (4). I still think there is time for (4) but can't see it happening now.
We've legislatively positioned ourselves for a transition period that may now never come.
Another run around, with a new leader - who tries to get SOME movement from the EU against the back-drop of the ticking clock of No Deal. "Pop quiz, EU: What do you do?"
May will clearly never countenance this. Bye-bye time.
He claims Labour want a 2 option people's vote - this deal or remain
Juncker has a deal and wants it ratified, if he says "reject this and we'll renegotiate" then it won't get ratified. He has to say this is it, for the same reason Cameron had to say he wouldn't resign if we voted for Brexit. If its rejected though, he needs to face that reality.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1067393230113832961
Leaving with no deal is the only option that undoubtedly respects the Conservative manifesto of 2017. More importantly, it is the second-most popular option with the public, with the Deal in dismal 3rd place. If No Deal is not on the ballot, there will be very loud cries that the second referendum is illegitimate. I can then see us voting to Remain on a sub-50% turnout.
That really will clear the way for the rise of the Far Right.
To be clear, my personal preference is that MPs just vote for the Deal. There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of it happening.
The Commission's ability to be seen as impartial is long over, I'm afraid.
"The European Union must turn into a major sovereign power on the global stage making the world in its image, Jean-Claude Juncker has said, setting out plans to make Europe militarily and economically independent from its traditional ally the US. In his state of the union speech, titled The Hour of European Sovereignty, the European commission president appealed to MEPs and heads of government to give the EU the powers and characteristics traditionally restricted to states."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/12/juncker-calls-on-eu-to-seize-chance-to-become-major-sovereign-power
Wreck everything if that is what you want. I will at least have the entertainment of listening to Leaver's bleating that it is not their fault.
Diamonds - While the £39bn is non trivial its spread over several years - in the two years we are transitioning they'll spend ±£250bn - so while its substantial I doubt its a deal breaker.
Spades - Agree
On the hindsight driven common criticisms of the government the one I have most sympathy with is "we let the EU do the drafting". I think initially we got off to a good start on the money and the EU were taken aback by our preparation - why we're at £39bn and not the £100bn that had been mooted. After that it went to pot. Dublin did a great job in Brussels getting the EU onside while we (Davis?) were too lazy or too shortsighted to see that coming. The backstop comes from the diplomatic job the Irish did (it wasn't present in the initial guidelines) and May had to sign up to it to get the December agreement. Had we been on our toes we'd have drafted what it meant and presented it to the EU, not the other way round. That was incompetent. All else has flowed from that.
On the 'we weren't prepared to invoke Article 50" - this ignores the political pressure the Remain supporting PM was under from both her own party and the opposition - who almost all wholeheartedly voted in favour of it.
Clubs: Another great hindsight observation - if she hadn't gone to the polls she would have forever been known as the PM who didn't call an election while sitting on double digit poll leads. What none of us quite understood at the time was how the referendum had transformed politics along Leave / Remain lines - with Mrs May hoovering up lots of the former while Magic Grandpa saw the former invest their hopes in him.
The EU can survive No Deal as only 16% of its exports come here, as 44% of UK exports go to the EU it will be much harder for us
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1067144545354289153
Any referendum cannot have a No Deal option* and hence I can't see how there could be one.
* because NI blah blah said it a thousand times before.
But it's clearly too late for her and her deal to play a part in the reconstruction era that is to come. She's too tainted by the events of the past two years to now ask us all to come together under her truth and reconciliation committee as we pivot to Norway+/Remain
She cannot be that PM, and her deal cannot be that blueprint. Thus both need to die in a hail of arrows. To May's credit, she knows this. She has chosen the time and place of her final, heroic, doomed last stand.
All that remains now is for it to happen, exactly as it must.
A fixed point in political time.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6433151/Vegan-activists-storm-steakhouse-force-diners-listen-sounds-slaughter.html
So the vote was between a 3b (which few people understood) and 4-7
They had brexit and threw it away to spend a lifetime of saying 'why on earth did we do that'
Secondly, there is absolutely zero evidence that any leaver could have performed this task any better. You might hope they could, but given the apparent skills of the likes of Johnson and Fox, it is highly unlikely.
Too many leavers are unwilling to compromise. Their position should have been sorted and solidified before the referendum, and not after. We are now facing the consequences.
This sort of mess was not only predictable with hindsight; it was predicted.
In all seriousness, though. Part of the ERG's shtick is they enjoy the attention of being serial malcontents and irritants. They don't need Brexit to do that.
I think they'll quickly pivot to other causes to undermine, degrade, frustrate and infuriate the Tory leadership with.
I can feel your pain
Which is one of those antinomic policies that contradicts its own existence and thus is logically undecidable.
Or a People's No Deal?
History is against you. History shows that once the EU has an agreement they will give squeaky wheels just enough grease to get it through.
Putting Boris in charge of Brexit would have been like putting Fred and Rosemary West in charge of your child's birthday party.
If the vote is decisively against, 100+, as looks nailed on at the moment she will need to resign. She has failed to carry Parliament with her in her journey to this deal and she will have failed to convince a meaningful proportion of her own party. It will be time for someone else to have a go.
My guess then is that we will have Hunt or Javid as PM. They will go back to Brussels to seek more time and some re-negotiation. They are likely to get the former but not the latter except in the most flimsy of ways. Some progress on the political statement is possible and that might give some assurance to those worried about the backstop and other provisions of the WA which tie us into EU law.
What do we do then? I'm not sure but a referendum on the new improved deal is increasingly a possibility. It could be yes or no of course in which case the alternative is a no deal Brexit but I think that we have gone past that. It seems likely that remain will be on the ballot paper although we will need clarity of what remain would mean and that what we think it would mean is acceptable to the EU. We might even find that the EU doesn't really fancy the UK being a continuing member and is not minded to grant the option.
Today's challenge: https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1067397393581252609
If we reject this deal Juncker and Barnier will in effect do a De Gaulle and say 'sod off Britain' then and we face the worst economic crisis and potential recession since perhaps the 1930s, and a market collapse perhaps even worse than 2008