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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After an historic morning in Brussels the betting remains that
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After an historic morning in Brussels the betting remains that Brexit will happen on time & TMay will survive until at least 2019
I’m taking profits on my TMay surviving 2018 bet because I think there’s just an outside chance that she could quit if the Commons votes against her plan. That would happen before Christmas.
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https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1066689665451913216
"Politics is the art of the possible".....
So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...
I would say OGH is wise to have cashed out, but Corbyn's continuing intransigence and incompetence doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
Westminster said to me
"You've fucked up the Brexit Treaty....."
It's also Labour policy for Britain to stay in the customs union.
Every country that belongs to both of these arrangements is a member state. There aren't even any microstate exceptions (Liechtenstein is in the SM, not the CU; Andorra is in the CU, not the SM).
Always rely on a teacher to put one straight. Been married to one for 56 years!
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1066701268985540609
Task Vegans with making meat pies, THIS is what you get.
The Commons is the trickiest one but even if the deal fails how do we avoid a no deal departure?
The only way I see her going (and it won't be before Christmas) is if her deal loses in Parliament twice and she starts talking about a second referendum or 'putting the deal to the people' (which I think is her current plan B ). Under those circumstances I think the Tories will no-confidence her and look to elect a new leader in the new year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sWTnsemkIs
She's out the door immediately if the deal gets through as the DUP will NC her.
F1: writing up the post-race ramble. Not a classic but the race had its moments.
May write some differing stuff to cover the post-season period. Got a few ideas. Depends on time, interest, the propitiation of Apollo etc.
The Tory Party has quite some reckoning coming its way, in your scenario.
The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into
account the principles of each Party. This balance must ensure the autonomy of the Union’s decision making and be consistent with the Union’s principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.
Faith in democracy skyrocketed after the referendum. It would collapse if the public weren't allowed the answer the elite disagrees with.
Yes. They don't believe no deal will really happen, so risking it seems like, well, no risk.
There’s a huge difference between the party abstaining and actually voting alongside the DUP and hardline Tory rebels to strike it down. My guess is that Corbyn’s party will abstain
How could they do that? What justification for standing by on this issue? Pushing a GE may be unrealistic in terms of how it would help get a new deal, but it enables them to tread a fine line to their supporters about brexiting and not brexiting, being all things to all people. Abstain and it is as good as endorsing a deal.
I don't quite follow how the chance of a referendum is still seen as low when thinking we won't leave is practically level with leave now (rightly, in my view). I don't see how we delay leaving for a new deal or don't leave at all without a referendum. My only difference is I think she might go if it is voted down even once. But she is done if it does get through. Which is fine, Brexit is more important than her remaining as PM. We shall see. Labour, whatever Corbyn wants, are moving to remain all the time - Starmer is positioning them that way.
But it makes selling it in any referendum on the deal very hard, particularly when Corbyn and the ERG crowd will sell much better fantasies. And there are fantasies there.
We have to hope the EU don't mean it when they say no more negotiation on the WA, because that will be attempted, whether it is Raab or Corbyn.
Love it lol
Perhaps she should thrown him a bone or two for his support - say, repeal of all anti-Union legislation and massive spending increases in welfare.
Friend of mine got a kicking once for trying to work - nice bunch eh?
Simples.
To be fair, I've read the letter May has written to me and if the letter matched the content of the Deal no one could possibly be in opposition as it reads like the fulfilment of every LEAVE voter's fantasies short of Barnier and Juncker coming down every garden path in the UK and personally delivering each elector £1000 in twenty pound notes.
Yet the vast majority of MPs and many others are opposed so what do they see that May doesn't or rather what don't they see that May does? Does the Prime Minister REALLY believe this is the best deal we could have got or is it simply the British deal she could get?
As ever, DYOR.
Deal, no deal and remain look to be much more realistic options, hopefully after the deal fails in parliament by a massive amount people will start to be more honest about which of those things they are prepared to accept.
Corbyn is responsible for a lot of things, particularly the brick-by-brick demolition of his own party's electability. Brexit however is a train wreck painted blue!
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/11/abu-dhabi-post-race-analysis-2018.html
I don't believe this is anywhere near the best deal we could have got under someone who actually understood Brexit but it is certainly the best deal we are going to get now.
As there are hardly any Union members left any more, I doubt it would mean anything.
My remark slightly in jest but you catch more flies with honey than with flypaper. In any case, Corbyn is playing politics with this and he is a politician so there's no surprise.
He is also trying to be all things to all people which is exactly what May was about between 2016 and the disastrous GE.
I think Corbyn's stance is not very helpful, frankly, but plenty of Tories have given him easy justification for his stance.