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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The deal splits the Tories whilst a referendum would split LAB as well
One of the arguments that pro-second referendum Tory MPs are using at the moment is that the Brexit deal basically splits the Tories and Labour gets off scot free in spite of its equivocation and huge policy differences. So it is being said that if there was a referendum then it would split Labour as well.
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A second referendum would split the Tories too.
I think that an awful lot would turn on the question that was actually put to the voters.
I guess there's only one way to find out...
As I have said several times, clear your diaries for May/June.
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1065895474870321152
It's a Remain landslide then...
But I don't see how a ref is avoided if Mps actually believe what they say about no deal. For Tories it is a bit better than a GE after dividing so publicly and for labour they can claim to not back a side bit leave it to the people.
Edit: save yourselves the bother - just seen @TheWhiteRabbit's response
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1065887927559962626
"The threat of the Tory whips – “May’s deal or no Brexit” – is fast losing its potency because a striking number of senior Brexiteers now believe that her deal is far worse. Thursday’s “political declaration” confirmed her plan: send £39 billion to Brussels with almost no assurances of what will be given in return. A free trade deal is spoken of, but not guaranteed.
We learned on Thursday that, in spite of Britain promising to align with EU regulations, we are not even being promised frictionless trade. Astonishingly, Northern Ireland is ceded to the EU regulatory orbit – for as long as the EU wants it."
"There might be a bigger Brexit deal in two years’ time, but having banked both our money and Ireland, the EU has almost no incentive to give us one. “Free movement will be next to go,” says one former Cabinet Brexiteer. “We’d be better staying in. No question.”"
"As recently as last week, Mrs May had hoped that the passage of time would lead MPs to see her deal as the most pragmatic option. But they’re coming to believe that her deal – this blind Brexit with nothing clear at the end of it – would guarantee years of instability, making the Tories forever seen as the party that botched Brexit, reviving populism and near-guaranteeing victory for Jeremy Corbyn.
There are, now, no safe Brexit options. The Brexiteers’ plan – betting on her losing next month’s vote, then pushing for a managed no-deal – is a massive gamble. But a great many Tories are coming to believe that nodding through Mrs May’s Brexit deal might be the most reckless gamble of all."
Labour will say, if it comes to a debate on a second referendum, it wants a GE instead and so vote against it and I can't see enough Conservatives supporting it either.
Beginnning to feel that a no deal would cause disruption but it would be a black Wednesday type of shock that will totally detach us from the European project and do so for ever.
I fear a 'word cloud' is heading my way.
All of the targeted ads with questionable funding sources. There is no question it motivated voters.
Grr.. there was no option for that. Leave or remain. EFTAis leave. Modify our welfare state so it’s less atttractive and let’s get on with it.
Enough labour remainers could be tempted for a ref as they believe remain will win, so do enough Tories support that or think it's the only way to maybe get the deal done.
I do think remain would win. Most remainers will vote the same and we know not all leavers would with this dealm
It is true that May's deal is a soft Brexit; that it gives the EU far more say over our future laws and regulations than many would like and that it contains the infamous backstop which potentially gives the EU even more power and say over the laws of NI. It also leaves us rather more beholden to them in respect of a future FTA than I would like. This is all unfortunate and regrettable but a fairly inevitable consequence of the incompetence with which the negotiations have been conducted. Some of it was always inevitable regardless standing the comparative strength of the parties.
OTOH it gets us out of the political mechanisms of the EU, it provides a necessary transitional period, it keeps the disruption to trade to a minimum, it makes it clear that it will be our decision whether we wish to keep free movement once that transitional period is over, it gets us out of the CAP, it largely leaves the decision about whether we remain in the CFP at the end of the transitional period down to us, it prevents the EU from seeking to impose any laws on us outwith the scope of the SM and even there we are simply being asked to accept that if we choose to pass laws incompatible with the SM that we are accepting the consequences of that.
I really don't think that you have to be a glass half full kind of guy or gal to recognise that this is a major step away from the EU, that it is consistent with the referendum result and that it also reflects the fact that the decision to leave was close. I can understand, even if I disagree, with those who say that no deal would be better, that we can make the mini deals to protect residents, transport links etc but we should not agree to any of this. I do not understand how anyone who apparently wanted to leave would say that they would rather stay as an alternative. Do they really think that there is a chance in hell that the UK would want to revisit this issue again for another 40 years? I mean, seriously?
1) People like Boris were only interested in furthering their career, he thought backing Leave would see him become Tory Leader/PM
2) Gove thought Leave would lose 70/30 if Leave was fronted by the likes of IDS and Farage, so he backed a much harder form of Brexit as a way of getting Leave to 45% to tell the EU this far and no further. He never expected to deliver on his promises and campaign. Why do you think he regrets the nasty xenophobic focus on Turkey
3) Some Leavers weren't BOOers until the referendum, they were reformers, so they hadn't really thought about the practicalities of Leaving but concluded Remaining wasn't an option. cf Raab and Dover/Calais.
Or perhaps they simply don't actually think the EU is so bad as they claim .
I thought it was the message on the bus that was the clincher? That was about the club fees and how we could spend them better in the uk.
Problem is that the man is the one that fills the supermarket shelves for them.
So what?
https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1065991196529561601
A moderate Brexit supporter would have been able to see these things - as did many on both sides of the referendum divide - and would have had a far better chance of selling a sensible compromise than someone who clearly did not understand or even want to understand why people voted Brexit.
I can well imagine May sat in meetings in Brussels saying ' look I am really sorry about this. I didn't vote for Brexit and have no idea why people did'. It may be a way to keep friends in the EU but it is no way to try and run a negotiation.
The odious Jake Rees has a third gun, permanently wedged up his anal passage.
" ‘Corbynomics’, which is cutting through."
https://unherd.com/2018/11/corbynomics-winning-britain/
Should I be getting worried he hasn't returned yet?
https://twitter.com/LenMcCluskey/status/1065880780025577472
Going round saying this is worse than remain invites 48% of the Country saying we have told you so for the last two years so let's agree to remain
Indeed almost guaranteeing a substantial remain vote in a referendum
Britain’s vote to leave the EU was the result of widespread anti-immigration sentiment, rather than a wider dissatisfaction with politics, according to a major survey of social attitudes in the UK.
Findings from the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey published on Wednesday show Brexit was the result of widespread concern over the numbers of people coming to the UK – millions of whom have done so under the EU’s freedom of movement rules in recent years.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-latest-news-leave-eu-immigration-main-reason-european-union-survey-a7811651.html#