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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. What do the public think of Theresa May’s Brexit deal?
After an eventful week in Westminster, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh sit down to discuss public opinion on Theresa May’s Brexit deal and her future asking ‘what happens now?’
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They increasingly prefer Remain to both the Deal on offer and No Deal
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/11/18/betting-on-just-how-many-candidates-are-on-the-first-ballot-paper-of-the-next-tory-leadership-election/
The Germans much be laughing as we are handing them a manifest destiny to lead a nacent superpower. Something they've always slightly shunned. But we are doing in such a shameless and shabby way it absolves war guilt allowing them to seize that manifest destiny with a previously impossible pride.
And where these merge at European level to form a Franco-German deep date, the engine of the EU , the laughter is greater still.
Britain fought 7 major continental and/or World Wars over several centuries to keep keep Europe open to free trade and prevent a single power dominating the continent. And now quite voluntarily here we are dumping 500 years of foreign policy and accepting vassal state status. For what ? And why ?
With AV, you get to rank all the candidates in order of preference in the same round, which doesn't happen in the Tory leadership race.
The exhaustive ballot is a voting system used to elect a single winner. Under the exhaustive ballot the elector simply casts a single vote for their chosen candidate. However, if no candidate is supported by an overall majority of votes then the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and a further round of voting occurs. This process is repeated for as many rounds as necessary until one candidate has a majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exhaustive_ballot
And leavers had the temerity of accusing remain of Project Fear ...
But even then, it's also wrong and stupid IMO.
The Leave vote was the first post-modern election result. Unfortunately our archipelago is still meatspace and now the Crash is here. We just have to wait to see what if anything is left of May after the forest fire till we can assess the meaningful vote chances.
https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1064258225812512777
As for writing, I’d have thought a good writer would have used “rarely” not “never (or hardly ever)”.
The E.U. is a voluntary union of states. There is nothing British foreign policy could have done to prevent its formation, especially after the decision not to join the ECSC in 1952. References to our wars of coalition are anachronistic and irrelevant.
The E.U. as Europe’s hegemon is a fact of life. Our choices are merger in the hope that we will have sufficient influence to defend our interests, or separation and acceptance that the E.U. will still weigh very heavily in our national life, and our trading relationship will be weaker than the constituent states, in exchange for greater autonomy on other matters. These are our choices.
I think countries will cease to exist in their current legal context in centuries to come anyway, Brexit just means the demise of the UK comes quicker and for a different reason.
At some point if globalisation continues a world executive is likely, particularly with problems such as climate change, population increases and resource depletion being so difficult to solve with the current decision making infrastructure. Conversely If you look back to how the UK was formed, small areas were amalgamated into larger areas over hundreds of years to form what we have now. I think the only way is up!
To be fair it is only 12 months later
FFS!! JIT supply chains are one of the things a No Deal Brexit would royally screw! So we would need more warehouse space.
One which is never made by its proponents, AFAIK.
Never!
What, never?
Well, Hardly Ever!
This is going to go on for a while yet - unless we have a referendum in April and Remain wins with MEPs elected in May in the usual way. Then we can get on with our lives.
They are clueless on manufacturing and the importance of the union.
After all their annointed Boris told Airbus to FO
They are clueless on manufacturing and the importance of the union.
After all their annointed Boris told Airbus to FO
Google 'just in time manufacturing' and you will see it explained and how it is crucial to our car and aerospace production plants
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/03/brexit-uk-car-industry-mini-britain-eu
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/could-brexit-spell-the-end-for-just-in-time-production/
They could be using a system of continental suppliers keeping stock in a UK warehouse which is then sent from their to meet the JIT timescale.
Well Big_G, as you know I have a great deal of respect for you, but (and no offence intended) I never expected you to be called out as one of the "self-labelled intelligensia".
The more these extreme Hard Brexiteers comment, the more ridiculous they appear. Applies equally on PB as to the ERG.
' The £56bn HS2 rail line is expected to be delayed by more than a year after it emerged in contract talks that the building project was at risk of soaring over budget.
Sources said costs for the “main works civil contracts” on the London-to-Birmingham stretch — including bridges, tunnels and embankments — had come in “several billion pounds” over the official budget of £6.6bn. That work is due to start next year.
The threatened budget blowout emerged from negotiations with construction companies that won huge packages of work on the line last year and could threaten the project’s viability. A cabinet minister told The Sunday Times last month a growing number of colleagues believed the scheme should be cancelled. '
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hs2-project-delayed-by-a-year-as-budget-balloons-h0ltxtpzj
I exaggerate of course but that is an argument I hear time and time again.
I would love Brexit to be just the first step in a reformation of our systems of governance.
Yes indeed, they are going to have a hard time of it.
EDIT: sorry 2021 (for the default on the transition period end).
Our supermarkets long time since changed how they hold stock. It comes in a lorry it comes off the lorry and is shifted into the store pretty quick. The storage offered by the store that isn’t on shelves is minimal. So there isn’t much resilience built in for delays etc. The modern British supermarket is probably the most efficient distributor of food in the history of mankind.
In manufacturing the just in time while important is not as critical, it’s more about trade without borders and checks. Nissan will source its supply chain continent wide, as it doesn’t make that much difference if the supplier is in Doncaster or Gdańsk, if the efficiencies offered by Gdańsk outweigh the extra costs of delivery.
But this is because that’s now they’ve got used to operating. For some work I do I used to order about £500 to £1,000 of stock a month. Used to get it largely from the same supplier to save postage.
Now I just order the goods as I need them with a pretty much universal guarantee of getting it next day.
I changed my model of purchasing because the technology and options facilitated it.
For Nissan it’s more about frictionless trade. For perishables it’s about just in time.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/18/michael-fabricant-mpwhy-wont-writing-letter-chairman-1922/
When I did the course on nuclear terrorism last year one of the points that was made was that it would only take one attack - and not even a successful one - on any major port around the world and world trade would grind to a halt completely. The security systems on these ports may be very good in some instances - at least with regard to stopping dangerous items leaving the port and getting into the country itself - but as far as checking or stopping anything entering the port itself they are non existent. The delays that would result from putting in place a proper security system would render JiT completely obsolete.
Indeed. That the Hard Brexiteers have had to resort to fake news shows they are rattled.
I suspect May's deal (or something very much like it) will get past the HoC in the next month.
Even if you manage (with difficulty) to get them to understand this basic point about the transition period being a UK desire, it just reaffirms to them that May is a remainer who is trying to thwart Brexit.