No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal too although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
You are saying that staying in the EU is a route to leaving the EU? That may be the most out-there Brexiteer sentiment I have ever seen expressed.
Government Policy apparently.
stay in and play them off again each other - Sir Humphrey Appleby
I'm still not sure where the talk of a snap election comes from. Under the FTP Act May can't call one if the backbenchers won't vote for it, and the DUP are free to vote against the deal without risking an election.
I'm still not sure where the talk of a snap election comes from. Under the FTP Act May can't call one if the backbenchers won't vote for it, and the DUP are free to vote against the deal without risking an election.
Indeed, May is more likely to call EUref2 if her Deal fails in my view than a general election and EUref2 has more chance of passing the Commons
James Forsythe says there is only one way for Mrs May to break the link between how she has handled Brexit so far and the issue of what Parliament should do now. "She [May] should say that as soon as the withdrawal legislation is through the Commons, she will stand down as Prime Minister. This would enable MPs to vote for the deal without that being an endorsement of her handling of Brexit or an invitation for her to negotiate the next stage of Brexit, the UK/EU trade deal." https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7762268/pm-should-stand-down-after-brexit-james-forsyth/
Eh? How would that work? People are insisting the deal is a capitulation and humiliation, her survival or not is surely irrelevant.
Ireland beat New Zealand for the first time on home soil
Incredible game...Was chalk and cheese to England earlier. Powerful fast running, hitting the line at speed, massive tackles and incredible discipline under pressure.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
No Brexit is better than No Deal.
Depends on the timescale and your willingness to ignore the votes of 17.4m people.
Remain 55% No Deal 45% according to YouGov, No Deal loses Leave its majority losing the waverers while just keeping the Brexit diehards and the 45% matches exactly the 45% pro independence diehards who voted Yes for Scottish independence in 2014
Polls change all the time. Look at the lead in the polls May lost in the last election. The votes in the last referendum were real. Since then there has only been bad news as May and her Remainers have sought to appease the EU for no worthwhile return.
Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.
Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
And the ERG and DUP will vote that down too, it is also a worse deal than May's as it requires free movement
Doesn't matter if the ERG and the DUP vote against if substantial numbers of Labour MPs support it. In practice though I assume it would be heavily whipped against on the Tory side so it would just be the usual pro-EU suspects (probably <20) who would support it.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal too although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
No Deal is absolutely not better than May's Deal and if staying in the EU is better than No Deal then that is what pigheaded Brexiteers will ultimately end up with, they will have reversed the Brexit vote in a little over 2 years through their complete inability to compromise and we will almost certainly never try to leave the EU again
You must then accept that, by your book, 72% of your fellow Tory Party members are "pigheaded".
I see the EU are following my excellent advice (fpt).
As someone is no doubt already typing, the public may well turn more toward no deal as a result of the EU being firmer in saying this deal is all that is available, if indeed they are getting tougher on that point.
But that is surely a good thing. People being prepared to no deal or the deal, rather than two or more different sides promising new deal for different reasons, would be better than what people are currently arguing about (not least since some are arguing about the very fundamental basis of their being a transition, for one).
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty
Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats
Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
I think it fair to expect that a GE following the collapse of of May's government in a Tory Civil War is unlikely to result seat gains.
I don't think Jezza has been fatally damaged by the anti-semitism stories, they have just reinforced existing opinions, whether he is a demon, or a victim of smears depending on side.
Why is the labour leader not miles ahead in public perception and trust. The reason is the leader is Corbyn. Starmer would be walking labour into office right now
Well, they would need to kick out the agitators and anti semites as well
Those crafty, lying EU leaders who also love to make better deals with the UK because...because...because of course they do, once PM Corbyn/Raab asks.
Fortunately, NODEAL is IDEAL.
I disagree, but I respect those who oppose on that basis if they genuinely think that to be the case. They should not be strong armed into supporting if they think any deal is inherently a bad thing. Others though? It's a trickier consideration.
James Forsythe says there is only one way for Mrs May to break the link between how she has handled Brexit so far and the issue of what Parliament should do now. "She [May] should say that as soon as the withdrawal legislation is through the Commons, she will stand down as Prime Minister. This would enable MPs to vote for the deal without that being an endorsement of her handling of Brexit or an invitation for her to negotiate the next stage of Brexit, the UK/EU trade deal." https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7762268/pm-should-stand-down-after-brexit-james-forsyth/
It's interesting Mutti has had a noticeable ratings bump ( though not the CDU ) since she made her retirement announcement. I think saying you are going can buy you time/credit. The problem for May is she needs to influence MPs, hardened politicians, not fickle voters.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
No Brexit is better than No Deal.
Depends on the timescale and your willingness to ignore the votes of 17.4m people.
It's plenty of Brexiteers who seem to be saying no brexit is better than a bad brexit (such is the logical conclusion to saying this brexit is worse than what we have now), so why do you assume plenty of other brexiters might think no brexit is better than no deal?
I don’t. I am expressing my opinion. Others can agree or disagree as they see fit. That is why we debate these issues, right ?
Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.
Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
Nandy and Flint etc ie Labour MPs in Leave seats may vote for May's Deal but they will vote against a Norway-style deal as it needs free movement
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty
Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats
Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
I know! He must have been real pissed to have been left all alone in the Command Module above the lunar surface in 1969!
Is that why he went in for Armstrong tactics? He clearly got a Buzz from them...
In a few weeks it's the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 8 mission, which went around the Moon, and which was probably a bigger step in spaceflight than even Apollo 11.
"The three-astronaut crew — Commander Frank Borman, Command Module Pilot James Lovell, and Lunar Module Pilot William Anders — became the first humans to travel beyond low Earth orbit; see Earth as a whole planet; enter the gravity well of another celestial body (Earth's moon); orbit another celestial body (Earth's moon); directly see the far side of the Moon with their own eyes; witness an Earthrise; escape the gravity of another celestial body (Earth's moon); and re-enter the gravitational well of Earth. "
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
No Brexit is better than No Deal.
Depends on the timescale and your willingness to ignore the votes of 17.4m people.
It's plenty of Brexiteers who seem to be saying no brexit is better than a bad brexit (such is the logical conclusion to saying this brexit is worse than what we have now), so why do you assume plenty of other brexiters might think no brexit is better than no deal?
I don’t. I am expressing my opinion. Others can agree or disagree as they see fit. That is why we debate these issues, right ?
Indeed, and my point was the votes of 17.4 million would not be ignored if it is no Brexit if the alternative of no deal. I do think most would be very mad indeed, but some leavers, like yours truly, would prefer no brexit to no deal, as would apparently even some more strident Brexiters. So how about 13-14 million? 15 million?
I wouldn't dismiss that out of hand, and I think if we do remain there will be massive problems arising from that, but it could well be that more than 17.4 million end up preferring to remain if we go down a second referendum route. Then we have competing mandates.
Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.
Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
And the ERG and DUP will vote that down too, it is also a worse deal than May's as it requires free movement
Doesn't matter if the ERG and the DUP vote against if substantial numbers of Labour MPs support it. In practice though I assume it would be heavily whipped against on the Tory side so it would just be the usual pro-EU suspects (probably <20) who would support it.</p>
The perception in some that PLP will switch to support TMay is sweet, but nowadays, with the takeover of CLP's by the members and Momentum, any Labour MP who steps out of line is not going to be going back to the greatest club in London.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal too although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
No Deal is absolutely not better than May's Deal and if staying in the EU is better than No Deal then that is what pigheaded Brexiteers will ultimately end up with, they will have reversed the Brexit vote in a little over 2 years through their complete inability to compromise and we will almost certainly never try to leave the EU again
We must agree to differ on the respective merits of May’s deal (whatever they are) and no deal and if we end up with no Brexit then British democracy will be the loser.
Those crafty, lying EU leaders who also love to make better deals with the UK because...because...because of course they do, once PM Corbyn/Raab asks.
Fortunately, NODEAL is IDEAL.
I disagree, but I respect those who oppose on that basis if they genuinely think that to be the case. They should not be strong armed into supporting if they think any deal is inherently a bad thing. Others though? It's a trickier consideration.
Those crafty, lying EU leaders who also love to make better deals with the UK because...because...because of course they do, once PM Corbyn/Raab asks.
Fortunately, NODEAL is IDEAL.
I disagree, but I respect those who oppose on that basis if they genuinely think that to be the case. They should not be strong armed into supporting if they think any deal is inherently a bad thing. Others though? It's a trickier consideration.
NODEAL == LEAVE == 52%
Its the only option with democratic legitimacy.
Um, DEAL = LEAVE = 52% too if we're playing that game. (I have no problem believing no deal is more popular than this deal, but in no way do all of the 52% back no deal form of leave)
But I do think if we are not leaving at all some further democratic legitimacy would be needed, even if it opens up the reasonable question of best of three etc.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty
Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats
Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
He is wrong more often than Rogerdamus....
What's Peston's predictions on the Oscars?
I hate to think. Hans Solo Movie for best picture?
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty
Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats
Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
He is wrong more often than Rogerdamus....
What's Peston's predictions on the Oscars?
I hate to think. Hans Solo Movie for best picture?
There's a most bland and paint by numbers category?
I'm still not sure where the talk of a snap election comes from. Under the FTP Act May can't call one if the backbenchers won't vote for it, and the DUP are free to vote against the deal without risking an election.
Indeed, May is more likely to call EUref2 if her Deal fails in my view than a general election and EUref2 has more chance of passing the Commons
May said again this week that there'll be no second referendum. She's now said that an awful lot of times. If you think she'll call a second referendum what do you think the question will be?
I'm still not sure where the talk of a snap election comes from. Under the FTP Act May can't call one if the backbenchers won't vote for it, and the DUP are free to vote against the deal without risking an election.
Indeed, May is more likely to call EUref2 if her Deal fails in my view than a general election and EUref2 has more chance of passing the Commons
May said again this week that there'll be no second referendum. She's now said that an awful lot of times.
Of course she has. And it is not technically a lie as she has no intention of calling one I am sure. But assuming she survives her deal being voted down she will need to try something. And if she won't another Tory might have no choice but to.
Those crafty, lying EU leaders who also love to make better deals with the UK because...because...because of course they do, once PM Corbyn/Raab asks.
Fortunately, NODEAL is IDEAL.
I disagree, but I respect those who oppose on that basis if they genuinely think that to be the case. They should not be strong armed into supporting if they think any deal is inherently a bad thing. Others though? It's a trickier consideration.
NODEAL == LEAVE == 52%
Its the only option with democratic legitimacy.
Um, DEAL = LEAVE = 52% too if we're playing that game. (I have no problem believing no deal is more popular than this deal, but in no way do all of the 52% back no deal form of leave)
.
on the RefDay the choice was LEAVE/remain. Anything else is supposition.
Not Leave with this or that or.. Just Leave. and that is by definition NODEAL
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty
Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats
Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
He is wrong more often than Rogerdamus....
What's Peston's predictions on the Oscars?
I hate to think. Hans Solo Movie for best picture?
He always follows informed opinion rather than reality.
James Forsythe says there is only one way for Mrs May to break the link between how she has handled Brexit so far and the issue of what Parliament should do now. "She [May] should say that as soon as the withdrawal legislation is through the Commons, she will stand down as Prime Minister. This would enable MPs to vote for the deal without that being an endorsement of her handling of Brexit or an invitation for her to negotiate the next stage of Brexit, the UK/EU trade deal." https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7762268/pm-should-stand-down-after-brexit-james-forsyth/
Eh? How would that work? People are insisting the deal is a capitulation and humiliation, her survival or not is surely irrelevant.
I think it's trying to catch those MPs who like the deal but are not happy with her leadership – i.e. they can vote for it without endorsing her leadership. That also applies to opposition MPs.
Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.
Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
That'll be Nick Boles' insane " Better Brexit " plan which he's already had to relaunch within a month as " Norway for Now " . The idea we could negotiate a time limited Norway + ( ie something that doesn't currently exist ) in under four months following the collapse of the A50 process is nuts. Especially as it would need unimity amongst all EEA states rather than a QM amongst the EU27. *And* by ditching the transition you need an ex nihlo replacement for CFP because they ain't going to let us unilaterally keep the fish on day one. It's fatuous stuff from Boles.
Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.
Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
Nandy and Flint etc ie Labour MPs in Leave seats may vote for May's Deal but they will vote against a Norway-style deal as it needs free movement
Out of interest, has any Labour MP come out publicly to say they will vote for this deal? Not a theoretical one, but this one?
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty
Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats
Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
He is wrong more often than Rogerdamus....
What's Peston's predictions on the Oscars?
I hate to think. Hans Solo Movie for best picture?
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
It is a huge mistake looking at the next election through the prism of the last one. After the antisemitism debacle Corbyn is a busted flush
I would normally agree with your first sentence but May has nothing to offer the electorate in terms of either campaigning skills or policy proposition except a Brexit policy that lacks any merit. Labour’s problems with Antisemitism regrettably seems not to shift the polls terribly much. I don’t think fear of a no deal or fear of a Labour Gov is a good reason to sign up to such an atrocious deal and if you are prepared to go along with May’s deal, there is no reason to ditch her as leader before the next election. Who wants to vote for her in the next election ? I wont and I’ve voted Tory all my life.
Labour’s problems with anti-semitism is now seen to be contrived by anti Labour sources. Somebody has overplayed their hand.
Those crafty, lying EU leaders who also love to make better deals with the UK because...because...because of course they do, once PM Corbyn/Raab asks.
Fortunately, NODEAL is IDEAL.
I disagree, but I respect those who oppose on that basis if they genuinely think that to be the case. They should not be strong armed into supporting if they think any deal is inherently a bad thing. Others though? It's a trickier consideration.
NODEAL == LEAVE == 52%
Its the only option with democratic legitimacy.
Um, DEAL = LEAVE = 52% too if we're playing that game. (I have no problem believing no deal is more popular than this deal, but in no way do all of the 52% back no deal form of leave)
.
on the RefDay the choice was LEAVE/remain. Anything else is supposition.
That was precisely my point. That entailed accepting a risk that no deal could occur, but it does not confer support for that option at the expense of others. 52% leave support for no deal also means accepting 52% support for any deal which means we leave.
So as you point out yourself the choice was not leave with this or that. It also was not 'We must not leave if it includes X' including this deal.
The deal means we leave. Therefore it has just as much legitimacy in the terms of the referendum question as any other leave option.
What most try to argue, not without some justification, is that the spirit of the referendum campaign would not be honoured by certain leave options.
So thank you for dispelling that argument and pointing out that so long as we leave there is democratic legitimacy for it. Including the deal. After all, you cannot tell me it is not true Brexit because no matter how BINO some might think it to be, it has a transition and we leave.
No longer must we argue over whether this or other deals honour the referendum, even if they are full single market membership and freedom of movement. Nothing in the question said those must not be included after all.
Most helpful to have established that now we are sticking just to the paper question again.
...unless you are going to engage in supposition and claim the 52% would be betrayed by this deal, even though it means we leave?
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
It is a huge mistake looking at the next election through the prism of the last one. After the antisemitism debacle Corbyn is a busted flush
Absolutely right. Every poll has Labour down on the last election when they got 41%.
Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.
Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
Nandy and Flint etc ie Labour MPs in Leave seats may vote for May's Deal but they will vote against a Norway-style deal as it needs free movement
Out of interest, has any Labour MP come out publicly to say they will vote for this deal? Not a theoretical one, but this one?
Depends if you consider Frank Field to be Labour. Did Flint?
James Forsythe says there is only one way for Mrs May to break the link between how she has handled Brexit so far and the issue of what Parliament should do now. "She [May] should say that as soon as the withdrawal legislation is through the Commons, she will stand down as Prime Minister. This would enable MPs to vote for the deal without that being an endorsement of her handling of Brexit or an invitation for her to negotiate the next stage of Brexit, the UK/EU trade deal." https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7762268/pm-should-stand-down-after-brexit-james-forsyth/
Eh? How would that work? People are insisting the deal is a capitulation and humiliation, her survival or not is surely irrelevant.
I think it's trying to catch those MPs who like the deal but are not happy with her leadership – i.e. they can vote for it without endorsing her leadership. That also applies to opposition MPs.
But they should be voting for it anyway if they can back it, her premiership will not be secure if it passes anyway. And this is too important to not vote because they don't like the person proposing it.
Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.
Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
Nandy and Flint etc ie Labour MPs in Leave seats may vote for May's Deal but they will vote against a Norway-style deal as it needs free movement
Out of interest, has any Labour MP come out publicly to say they will vote for this deal? Not a theoretical one, but this one?
Flint has an article in the Guardian she did not say she would vote for Mays deal she left it at I know where my duty lies and this sentance "Not to help May, not to help the government, but to do what I believe is in the best interests of my constituents and the country."
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
It is a huge mistake looking at the next election through the prism of the last one. After the antisemitism debacle Corbyn is a busted flush
Absolutely right. Every poll has Labour down on the last election when they got 41%.
In an election campaign the main Opposition party normally gains ground.2017 was an extreme example of that.
Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.
Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
Nandy and Flint etc ie Labour MPs in Leave seats may vote for May's Deal but they will vote against a Norway-style deal as it needs free movement
Out of interest, has any Labour MP come out publicly to say they will vote for this deal? Not a theoretical one, but this one?
No. Hilariously the only opposition MP who's given May a blank cheque so far is Lib Dem Stephen Lloyd. Flint has heavily hinted she'll vote for this deal but even she is now giving herself wiggle room saying she'll only do it if the alternative is No Deal. But by definition you wouldn't know the only alternative is No Deal until the deal has been voted down at least once.
Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.
Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
Nandy and Flint etc ie Labour MPs in Leave seats may vote for May's Deal but they will vote against a Norway-style deal as it needs free movement
Out of interest, has any Labour MP come out publicly to say they will vote for this deal? Not a theoretical one, but this one?
Flint has an article in the Guardian she did not say she would vote for Mays deal she left it at I know where my duty lies and this sentance "Not to help May, not to help the government, but to do what I believe is in the best interests of my constituents and the country."
Make of it what you will.
That she is persuadable at any rate. Although the gutless give have given cover to do otherwise, since it won't be a choice of deal or no deal.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
It is a huge mistake looking at the next election through the prism of the last one. After the antisemitism debacle Corbyn is a busted flush
Absolutely right. Every poll has Labour down on the last election when they got 41%.
In an election campaign the main Opposition party normally gains ground.2017 was an extreme example of that.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
It is a huge mistake looking at the next election through the prism of the last one. After the antisemitism debacle Corbyn is a busted flush
I would normally agree with your first sentence but May has nothing to offer the electorate in terms of either campaigning skills or policy proposition except a Brexit policy that lacks any merit. Labour’s problems with Antisemitism regrettably seems not to shift the polls terribly much. I don’t think fear of a no deal or fear of a Labour Gov is a good reason to sign up to such an atrocious deal and if you are prepared to go along with May’s deal, there is no reason to ditch her as leader before the next election. Who wants to vote for her in the next election ? I wont and I’ve voted Tory all my life.
Labour’s problems with anti-semitism is now seen to be contrived by anti Labour sources. Somebody has overplayed their hand.
Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.
Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
Nandy and Flint etc ie Labour MPs in Leave seats may vote for May's Deal but they will vote against a Norway-style deal as it needs free movement
Out of interest, has any Labour MP come out publicly to say they will vote for this deal? Not a theoretical one, but this one?
Depends if you consider Frank Field to be Labour. Did Flint?
I don't know. Flint did say she might, but that would be before the text was published and reaction to it. She may do so. However, that amounts to 1 yes, and 1 possible. Edit: Field is, of course, an Independent.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty
Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats
Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
He is wrong more often than Rogerdamus....
What's Peston's predictions on the Oscars?
I hate to think. Hans Solo Movie for best picture?
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty
Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats
Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
He is wrong more often than Rogerdamus....
What's Peston's predictions on the Oscars?
I hate to think. Hans Solo Movie for best picture?
Han. Not Hans.
New EU spelling rules. May has agreed to adopt them in her Brexit deal.....
James Forsythe says there is only one way for Mrs May to break the link between how she has handled Brexit so far and the issue of what Parliament should do now. "She [May] should say that as soon as the withdrawal legislation is through the Commons, she will stand down as Prime Minister. This would enable MPs to vote for the deal without that being an endorsement of her handling of Brexit or an invitation for her to negotiate the next stage of Brexit, the UK/EU trade deal." https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7762268/pm-should-stand-down-after-brexit-james-forsyth/
Eh? How would that work? People are insisting the deal is a capitulation and humiliation, her survival or not is surely irrelevant.
I think it's trying to catch those MPs who like the deal but are not happy with her leadership – i.e. they can vote for it without endorsing her leadership. That also applies to opposition MPs.
But they should be voting for it anyway if they can back it, her premiership will not be secure if it passes anyway. And this is too important to not vote because they don't like the person proposing it.
I think you've missed the point. It is that by saying she'll stand down once the withdrawal legislation is through, that separates the person (and any personal loyalty or loathing) from the substantive issue.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
My point was that, if May goes as PM, then the Tories have their working parliamentary majority back so there is no risk of an imminent general election which Corbyn might win.
On the other hand, confidence and supply will end while May remains as PM. So, there is every prospect of the Government losing a confidence vote in parliament with May as PM. May would not resign, the Tory Party could not force her to (after winning a ballot earlier on her leadership) and so a new Tory leader could not win a new confidence motion in the 14 days period of grace allowed. May would stubborn as ever force her party into contesting an otherwise avoidable general election in which she would be a drag on her party's ratings. Keep Theresa risk Corbyn as PM.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
No Brexit is better than No Deal.
Depends on the timescale and your willingness to ignore the votes of 17.4m people.
It's plenty of Brexiteers who seem to be saying no brexit is better than a bad brexit (such is the logical conclusion to saying this brexit is worse than what we have now), so why do you assume plenty of other brexiters might think no brexit is better than no deal?
I don’t. I am expressing my opinion. Others can agree or disagree as they see fit. That is why we debate these issues, right ?
Indeed, and my point was the votes of 17.4 million would not be ignored if it is no Brexit if the alternative of no deal. I do think most would be very mad indeed, but some leavers, like yours truly, would prefer no brexit to no deal, as would apparently even some more strident Brexiters. So how about 13-14 million? 15 million?
I wouldn't dismiss that out of hand, and I think if we do remain there will be massive problems arising from that, but it could well be that more than 17.4 million end up preferring to remain if we go down a second referendum route. Then we have competing mandates.
If May’s deal gets voted down, which is what should happen on merit, we’ll either have a second referendum, which would be a bad move, or look to cobble together membership of the EEA / EFTA notwithstanding Norway’s properly articulated objections.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty
Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats
Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
He is wrong more often than Rogerdamus....
What's Peston's predictions on the Oscars?
I hate to think. Hans Solo Movie for best picture?
I just watched it on Blu-Ray this evening
Lucky you. I came into the room to find JarJar Binks on the telly.....
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
It is a huge mistake looking at the next election through the prism of the last one. After the antisemitism debacle Corbyn is a busted flush
I would normally agree with your first sentence but May has nothing to offer the electorate in terms of either campaigning skills or policy proposition except a Brexit policy that lacks any merit. Labour’s problems with Antisemitism regrettably seems not to shift the polls terribly much. I don’t think fear of a no deal or fear of a Labour Gov is a good reason to sign up to such an atrocious deal and if you are prepared to go along with May’s deal, there is no reason to ditch her as leader before the next election. Who wants to vote for her in the next election ? I wont and I’ve voted Tory all my life.
Labour’s problems with anti-semitism is now seen to be contrived by anti Labour sources. Somebody has overplayed their hand.
I don’t think there is anything contrived about Labour’s problems with anti-semitism.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
It is a huge mistake looking at the next election through the prism of the last one. After the antisemitism debacle Corbyn is a busted flush
Absolutely right. Every poll has Labour down on the last election when they got 41%.
In an election campaign the main Opposition party normally gains ground.2017 was an extreme example of that.
2015?
2015 and 1992 were elections when the polls had methodological problems and were wrong throughout. Beyond that the Opposition advanced during the campaigns of - 1959- 1964 - 1966 - 1970 - both 1974 elections - 1987 - 2001 - little change in 2005. The main exceptions were 1979 and 1997 , but on both occasions the incumbent was lagging the Opposition by a wide margin. 1983 saw a swing between the Opposition parties in the latter part of the campaign though Tory support did fall.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty
Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats
Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
He is wrong more often than Rogerdamus....
What's Peston's predictions on the Oscars?
I hate to think. Hans Solo Movie for best picture?
Han. Not Hans.
New EU spelling rules. May has agreed to adopt them in her Brexit deal.....
Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.
Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
Nandy and Flint etc ie Labour MPs in Leave seats may vote for May's Deal but they will vote against a Norway-style deal as it needs free movement
Out of interest, has any Labour MP come out publicly to say they will vote for this deal? Not a theoretical one, but this one?
Flint has an article in the Guardian she did not say she would vote for Mays deal she left it at I know where my duty lies and this sentance "Not to help May, not to help the government, but to do what I believe is in the best interests of my constituents and the country."
Make of it what you will.
Flinty is somewhat conflicted. She quite possibly thinks May's deal is the only one available. On the other hand Corbo is very likely to put on 3lineWhips to oppose. Round SYorks 'propping up the tories' is a serious offence and she's got some real socialists, a smallish majority and a huge Leave vote. So she's assiduously rolling the pitch. Might work, but might need new windows if she sticks her head up and the vote(s) are close.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty
Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats
Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
He is wrong more often than Rogerdamus....
What's Peston's predictions on the Oscars?
I hate to think. Hans Solo Movie for best picture?
I just watched it on Blu-Ray this evening
My commiserations. I do hope you recover from whatever serious illness you have very soon.
Then there is the Transition extension. The UK government can unilaterally commit to not using it or set a time limit on how long an extension it would ever seek. That might give a few europhobic No votes on Vote 1 cover to vote Yes on Vote 2 or more. Or the UK could just have the extension mechanism removed from the A50 agreement. That would cost the EU nothing.
Equally on the otherwise after a Vote 1 loss the government could try and feel in europhiles by promising a longer extension. It can't do that unilaterally but the A50 text could be tweaked. I can't see the EU being fussed swaping a 21 month extension + extension mechanism for a flat 36 month transition say.
If you read the draft Article on transition extension it's very durable after Vote 1 No in either direction depending on who's votes are up for grabs.
Would the Lib Dems/Plaid/Green vote for a deal on second or subsequent attempt in return for a People's Vote ?
Contradictory isn't it? If they for a deal there's no need for a second referendum. I would think they could support a second referendum which included this deal as an option though.
Would the Lib Dems/Plaid/Green vote for a deal on second or subsequent attempt in return for a People's Vote ?
More importantly the SNP might go for that deal too, and Remainia-representing Labour MPs. But the problem is, how many extra Tories do you lose from the other end?
James Forsythe says there is only one way for Mrs May to break the link between how she has handled Brexit so far and the issue of what Parliament should do now. "She [May] should say that as soon as the withdrawal legislation is through the Commons, she will stand down as Prime Minister. This would enable MPs to vote for the deal without that being an endorsement of her handling of Brexit or an invitation for her to negotiate the next stage of Brexit, the UK/EU trade deal." https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7762268/pm-should-stand-down-after-brexit-james-forsyth/
Eh? How would that work? People are insisting the deal is a capitulation and humiliation, her survival or not is surely irrelevant.
I think it's trying to catch those MPs who like the deal but are not happy with her leadership – i.e. they can vote for it without endorsing her leadership. That also applies to opposition MPs.
But they should be voting for it anyway if they can back it, her premiership will not be secure if it passes anyway. And this is too important to not vote because they don't like the person proposing it.
I think you've missed the point. It is that by saying she'll stand down once the withdrawal legislation is through, that separates the person (and any personal loyalty or loathing) from the substantive issue.
I got the point - I just don't understand why they would be so idiotic, on this crucial issue, to not separate the person from the substantive issue anyway.
There is a few hundred quid available to back 53 Republican Senate seats. This seems like a guaranteed 4% return on your money given that both Dems have conceded for a second time.
Excoriating criticism of the leavers still in the Cabinet, by Simon Heffer. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/17/brexits-fatuous-five-complicit-prime-ministers-delusions/ Concludes: Whether these people are foolish, hypocritical or craven is for them to decide. Principled Brexiteers do not regard them as having put their country before their egos. They seem to have shredded their long‑term credibility simply to avoid a confrontation. They are not just torpedoing their reputations, but degrading the integrity of Cabinet government; and deepening a division in their party which, as after all civil wars, will take generations to heal.
Therefore, we have Stephen Lloyd, Frank Field and Ms Flint as a maybe. Reported 84 Tories against. And there isn't a majority in the first place. Safe to say, right now, this deal is in trouble.
Are the DUP serious ? Could they not just be bought on Vote 2 onwards ? I mean serious eye watering cash ?
On anything that makes the union weaker, the catchphrase is never x 4. They will never x 50 trust Jeremy Corbyn. Their supporters would show him even less trust.
Their backing of Brexit is the most inexplicable strategic error by any political party in my lifetime.
There is a few hundred quid available to back 53 Republican Senate seats. This seems like a guaranteed 4% return on your money given that both Dems have conceded for a second time.
It's a 4% return based on the Mississippi run off not delivering a huge upset.
Appropriate to have a picture of Gove below a headline about rebellion, given his own more insidious and dishonourable rebellion.
Gove is behaving honourably. Him resigning might well have done for May. He's showing loyalty by sticking with her and trying to improve a deal he thinks will not be supported in the Commons as it is.
Are the DUP serious ? Could they not just be bought on Vote 2 onwards ? I mean serious eye watering cash ?
On anything that makes the union weaker, the catchphrase is never x 4. They will never x 50 trust Jeremy Corbyn. Their supporters would show him even less trust.
Their backing of Brexit is the most inexplicable strategic error by any political party in my lifetime.
Their voters want it.
The endlessly repeated 'NI voted Remain' is a generaliseation that misses the point.
SF, SDLP Alliance voted Remain. DUP and UUP voters were LEAVE.
Appropriate to have a picture of Gove below a headline about rebellion, given his own more insidious and dishonourable rebellion.
Gove is behaving honourably. Him resigning might well have done for May. He's showing loyalty by sticking with her and trying to improve a deal he thinks will not be supported in the Commons as it is.
Bringing May down would be entirely honourable if he cannot support the deal May says cannot be improved. By saying otherwise he is calling her a liar and pretending he supports her deal when he doesn't. That is not loyalty, it doesn't help her get a deal through.
If he wants to improve the deal (and yes, that would be the best option of getting something passed, if the EU is willing) the option is to support someone else as leader who agrees that they can improve the deal, not call the PM a liar for saying it is her deal or no deal.
This article's tone suggests this is a new and dramatic development. That is incorrect. The majority of farming organisations, plus the business community, agri-food in particular, have been clear in opposing a hard Brexit for some time. That makes sense from their perspective; business doesn't like uncertainty and disruption. It is a view shared by some in the DUP anyway that a fairly fobbed deal is better than nothing.
Even the suggestion of an idea though (which the article admittedly does not claim) that farmers of a unionist hue, in the event of a hard Brexit are going to be suddenly converted into a Wolfe Tone collective may forget it. Rural communities especially those in South Down, Armagh, Fermanagh Tyrone and South Londonderry have a very good memory of not so ancient history.
You could easily, as with everything Brexit-related, run a counter story. The Belfast Harbour Commissioners, who run Port of Belfast are on record as saying they could handle new customs arrangements upstream at the port itself rapidly and smoothly and have plans in place if needed.
Ah, the childish return to complaints of bullying when what they mean is Brussels is being unhelpfully stubborn, perhaps even self defeating. Totally the same thing.
Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.
Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.
No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
No Brexit is better than No Deal.
Depends on the timescale and your willingness to ignore the votes of 17.4m people.
It's plenty of Brexiteers who sers might think no brexit is better than no deal?
I don’t. I am expressing my opinion. Others can agree or disagree as they see fit. That is why we debate these issues, right ?
Indeed, and my point was the votes of 17.4 million would not be ignored if it is no Brexit if the alternative of no deal. I do think most would be very mad indeed, but some leavers, like yours truly, would prefer no brexit to no deal, as would apparently even some more strident Brexiters. So how about 13-14 million? 15 million?
I wouldn't dismiss that out of hand, and I think if we do remain there will be massive problems arising from that, but it could well be that more than 17.4 million end up preferring to remain if we go down a second referendum route. Then we have competing mandates.
If May’s deal gets voted down, which is what should happen on merit, we’ll either have a second referendum, which would be a bad move, or look to cobble together membership of the EEA / EFTA notwithstanding Norway’s properly articulated objections.
Both of which options are worse than May's Deal, Norway's requires free movement, EUref2 likely reverses Brexit altogether
Comments
stay in and play them off again each other - Sir Humphrey Appleby
I see the EU are following my excellent advice (fpt).
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/11/our-survey-seven-out-of-ten-party-member-respondents-oppose-mays-brexit-deal.html
But that is surely a good thing. People being prepared to no deal or the deal, rather than two or more different sides promising new deal for different reasons, would be better than what people are currently arguing about (not least since some are arguing about the very fundamental basis of their being a transition, for one).
I don’t. I am expressing my opinion. Others can agree or disagree as they see fit. That is why we debate these issues, right ?
"The three-astronaut crew — Commander Frank Borman, Command Module Pilot James Lovell, and Lunar Module Pilot William Anders — became the first humans to travel beyond low Earth orbit; see Earth as a whole planet; enter the gravity well of another celestial body (Earth's moon); orbit another celestial body (Earth's moon); directly see the far side of the Moon with their own eyes; witness an Earthrise; escape the gravity of another celestial body (Earth's moon); and re-enter the gravitational well of Earth. "
I wouldn't dismiss that out of hand, and I think if we do remain there will be massive problems arising from that, but it could well be that more than 17.4 million end up preferring to remain if we go down a second referendum route. Then we have competing mandates.
We must agree to differ on the respective merits of May’s deal (whatever they are) and no deal and if we end up with no Brexit then British democracy will be the loser.
Its the only option with democratic legitimacy.
But I do think if we are not leaving at all some further democratic legitimacy would be needed, even if it opens up the reasonable question of best of three etc.
Not Leave with this or that or.. Just Leave. and that is by definition NODEAL
It would have been The Last Jedi...
So as you point out yourself the choice was not leave with this or that. It also was not 'We must not leave if it includes X' including this deal.
The deal means we leave. Therefore it has just as much legitimacy in the terms of the referendum question as any other leave option.
What most try to argue, not without some justification, is that the spirit of the referendum campaign would not be honoured by certain leave options.
So thank you for dispelling that argument and pointing out that so long as we leave there is democratic legitimacy for it. Including the deal. After all, you cannot tell me it is not true Brexit because no matter how BINO some might think it to be, it has a transition and we leave.
No longer must we argue over whether this or other deals honour the referendum, even if they are full single market membership and freedom of movement. Nothing in the question said those must not be included after all.
Most helpful to have established that now we are sticking just to the paper question again.
...unless you are going to engage in supposition and claim the 52% would be betrayed by this deal, even though it means we leave?
Make of it what you will.
"Steam engine hits car at Sheringham level crossing"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46249122
Edit: Field is, of course, an Independent.
On the other hand, confidence and supply will end while May remains as PM. So, there is every prospect of the Government losing a confidence vote in parliament with May as PM. May would not resign, the Tory Party could not force her to (after winning a ballot earlier on her leadership) and so a new Tory leader could not win a new confidence motion in the 14 days period of grace allowed. May would stubborn as ever force her party into contesting an otherwise avoidable general election in which she would be a drag on her party's ratings. Keep Theresa risk Corbyn as PM.
I don’t think there is anything contrived about Labour’s problems with anti-semitism.
Nicola isn't going to save this under any circumstances.
Equally on the otherwise after a Vote 1 loss the government could try and feel in europhiles by promising a longer extension. It can't do that unilaterally but the A50 text could be tweaked. I can't see the EU being fussed swaping a 21 month extension + extension mechanism for a flat 36 month transition say.
If you read the draft Article on transition extension it's very durable after Vote 1 No in either direction depending on who's votes are up for grabs.
There is a few hundred quid available to back 53 Republican Senate seats. This seems like a guaranteed 4% return on your money given that both Dems have conceded for a second time.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/17/brexits-fatuous-five-complicit-prime-ministers-delusions/
Concludes:
Whether these people are foolish, hypocritical or craven is for them to decide. Principled Brexiteers do not regard them as having put their country before their egos. They seem to have shredded their long‑term credibility simply to avoid a confrontation. They are not just torpedoing their reputations, but degrading the integrity of Cabinet government; and deepening a division in their party which, as after all civil wars, will take generations to heal.
Protesters in Prague are holding a rally against embattled Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis, a day after he vowed he would "never resign".
The protest comes on the 29th anniversary of the Velvet Revolution, the peaceful overthrow of communism in former Czechoslovakia.
Mr Babis is facing allegations that he defrauded the EU, which he denies.
He also denies having his son, Andrej Babis Jr, kidnapped and held in Crimea to stop him testifying in the case.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46248473
https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1063912262996508673
Reported 84 Tories against.
And there isn't a majority in the first place.
Safe to say, right now, this deal is in trouble.
Their backing of Brexit is the most inexplicable strategic error by any political party in my lifetime.
https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1063846019115438080?s=21
The endlessly repeated 'NI voted Remain' is a generaliseation that misses the point.
SF, SDLP Alliance voted Remain. DUP and UUP voters were LEAVE.
The header article is wrong.
If he wants to improve the deal (and yes, that would be the best option of getting something passed, if the EU is willing) the option is to support someone else as leader who agrees that they can improve the deal, not call the PM a liar for saying it is her deal or no deal.
Even the suggestion of an idea though (which the article admittedly does not claim) that farmers of a unionist hue, in the event of a hard Brexit are going to be suddenly converted into a Wolfe Tone collective may forget it. Rural communities especially those in South Down, Armagh, Fermanagh Tyrone and South Londonderry have a very good memory of not so ancient history.
You could easily, as with everything Brexit-related, run a counter story. The Belfast Harbour Commissioners, who run Port of Belfast are on record as saying they could handle new customs arrangements upstream at the port itself rapidly and smoothly and have plans in place if needed.