For some reason I thought there was an official wreath-laying ceremony at Arlington Cemetery today and that Trump was skipping it. There isn’t and he didn’t. Sorry about that.
O/T Is there a spread bet on when the Sporting Index US election spread bets will be settled?
(It's not their fault, of course).
Being a good republican state, Mississippi numbers don't seem to have moved. The Salt lake numbers seem stuck at 81% in Utah.
I think they should settle MS now !
Still got a run off to go. Anything could happen.
Ladbrokes have a more interesting market with 5/6 either way if you remove 10.5% from the GOP vote (or add 10.5% to the Dem vote). I'm still on the GOP even then.
That seems like a steal to me. May have to think about it more as that seems to good to be true.
I'm happy with my bet, but do note that the last time this situation was run the margin was 10% on the nose.
Espy's 40.6% virtually identical to Baria's 39% so I too have put some money on
The special election is nominally nonpartisan, and so the first round operated as a jungle primary. The combined actually-Republican vs actually-Democratic votes were 58% to 42%, so I think this is almost certainly a Republican hold in the run-off.
Right - so there is no reason to think the margin will be very different to the 'normal' election which was Rep by almost 20 points
If Trump is in ill-health, and either succumbed to such, or resigns because of it, then obviously Mike Pence becomes President. That means the Vice-Presidency becomes vacant. Pence gets to nominate a VP successor, but that choice has to be ratified by a straight majority vote of both houses of Congress. One of those houses becomes Democratic controlled on the 3rd January.
If the Vice-Presidency should remain vacant (which has happened for prolonged periods in the past, before the current vacancy rules came into place under the 25th Amendment in 1967) the next in line for the Presidency is the Speaker of the House, who from 3rd January is almost certainly going to be the Honorable Nancy Pelosi of California, and will be a Democrat in any case.
So, if, and it is of course a very, very, very big "if", Trump is facing serious health issues, the Republicans only have a short window to ensure a Republican succession to the next-in-line to the Presidency. I should imagine Pence, being only 59, is in a lot better health than Trump anyway, so the GOP should be assured, absent something devasting to Trump and Pence both coming out of the investigatory woodwork, of the White House until the end of the current term.
But so many improbable things have happened over the last couple of years, who knows?
Pence was part of the transition team. As was Sessions. Sessions had to recluse himself from the Mueller investigation due to lying about meetings with Russians during the transition.
Trump was criticised by the GOP for insulting the memory and parents of a dead gold star soldier, it didn't stop his base or the country voting for him in 2016.
This is bizarre. I would guess that cohort tends to the GOP. Perhaps I am wrong. Nothing surprises me about Trumpton's America nowadays.
It does, but Dem cities are always the slowest to count (And they'd swamp absentee military ballots) so the effect would be a net gain for the GOP to do it on "on the night" votes.
O/T Is there a spread bet on when the Sporting Index US election spread bets will be settled?
(It's not their fault, of course).
Being a good republican state, Mississippi numbers don't seem to have moved. The Salt lake numbers seem stuck at 81% in Utah.
I think they should settle MS now !
Still got a run off to go. Anything could happen.
Ladbrokes have a more interesting market with 5/6 either way if you remove 10.5% from the GOP vote (or add 10.5% to the Dem vote). I'm still on the GOP even then.
That seems like a steal to me. May have to think about it more as that seems to good to be true.
I'm happy with my bet, but do note that the last time this situation was run the margin was 10% on the nose.
Espy's 40.6% virtually identical to Baria's 39% so I too have put some money on
The special election is nominally nonpartisan, and so the first round operated as a jungle primary. The combined actually-Republican vs actually-Democratic votes were 58% to 42%, so I think this is almost certainly a Republican hold in the run-off.
O/T Is there a spread bet on when the Sporting Index US election spread bets will be settled?
(It's not their fault, of course).
Being a good republican state, Mississippi numbers don't seem to have moved. The Salt lake numbers seem stuck at 81% in Utah.
I think they should settle MS now !
Still got a run off to go. Anything could happen.
Ladbrokes have a more interesting market with 5/6 either way if you remove 10.5% from the GOP vote (or add 10.5% to the Dem vote). I'm still on the GOP even then.
That seems like a steal to me. May have to think about it more as that seems to good to be true.
I'm happy with my bet, but do note that the last time this situation was run the margin was 10% on the nose.
Espy's 40.6% virtually identical to Baria's 39% so I too have put some money on
The special election is nominally nonpartisan, and so the first round operated as a jungle primary. The combined actually-Republican vs actually-Democratic votes were 58% to 42%, so I think this is almost certainly a Republican hold in the run-off.
Right - so there is no reason to think the margin will be very different to the 'normal' election which was Rep by almost 20 points
No incumbency for the GOP candidate, but other than that...none I can think of. I guess the Dems can flood the area with resources now there aren't nationwide elections on - but that works for both sides.
Never heard of Woolwich Arsenal? Love it on the DLR, they always abbreviate it to "Woolwich Ar'l" on the platform indicators
You wonder what the abbreviation for Cockermouth would be.
My team used to have responsibility for issuing the four character codes that are used to identify UK power sites. I did have to deal with one person who objected to the code issued (many years earlier) for Cockenzie power station. I simply pointed out the six figure cost that would be incurred to change it in all our systems. I always hoped my 'empire' would one day spread to Japanese power stations, such as Fuckushima.
It would have been better than you realised. It's actually spelt Fukushima. So the abbreviation would be FUKU.
Appropriate given the way it um, ended operations...
Scottish independence eould have been the dominant issue selection 2015 and of course the Tories Tories still have added a Brexit referendum to a 'screw the Scots' platform.
The Scottish Tories would be about as relevant to a Scotland which had just voted for independence as the LDs are after the Brexit vote
Do you think then part of the "screw the Scots" platform would have been to veto any application from an independent Scotland for EU membership?
Absolutely, although it would have been an implicit threat, as I'd have expected Spain to do the deed themselves.
They would not like the precedent of a seceding part of a country rejoining the EU straight away.
The Spanish have no problem with legal succession.
After the way some in Madrid handled the events in Catalonia I find your faith in the Spaniards touching.
I note that was an illegal (by the view of the Spanish state) succession vote.
Comments
For some reason I thought there was an official wreath-laying ceremony at Arlington Cemetery today and that Trump was skipping it. There isn’t and he didn’t. Sorry about that.
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/11/trump-decides-to-skip-arlington-ceremony-too/
Pence is going to be filthy, filthy, filthy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46188790
He hasn't said if David Cameron has ever visited *innocent face*
Appropriate given the way it um, ended operations...
NEW THREAD
Why didn't Madrid agree to hold a legal one?