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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump slips in the WH2020 betting after his party’s midterms p

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump slips in the WH2020 betting after his party’s midterms performance

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,891
    Are we getting any closer to a decision in either? It looks to me as if Fl is likely to go the GOP's way (which is clearly good news for Trump) and Az is more likely to go the Dems way which suggests that State is moving into the Dems camp.

    The movement against the GOP in the rust bucket states is more likely to be significant to the final outcome but it was modest.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I have trust that the Democrats can lose to Trump a second time.
  • mazingmazing Posts: 3
    the Senate outcome was better for the GOP than 2012, and given that following that 2012 performance, the GOP went on to win in 2016, I'm not sure that the midterm results are particular cause for concern.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2018
    mazing said:

    the Senate outcome was better for the GOP than 2012, and given that following that 2012 performance, the GOP went on to win in 2016, I'm not sure that the midterm results are particular cause for concern.

    You're comparing apples with space-wombles there because 2012 was a Presidential year.

    Not that I think the mid-terms were disastrous for Trump. He will enjoy having a Democrat controlled House to campaign against for two years. But the Democrat votes in the mid-West were impressive.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    edited November 2018
    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    A Christmas thread?
  • mazingmazing Posts: 3
    "You're comparing apples with space-wombles there because 2012 was a Presidential year."

    Well no, I'm comparing Class 1 Senate results with Class 1 Senate results.

    I think until we see how bad the Democratic candidate for 2020 (and none of them are exactly Obama) is, we can't really make a judgement on Trumps' chances.

    2-1 against a sitting President is pretty good odds in my book.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Is that the Viagra in a morgue series of films?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    If there were another referendum, I'd think seriously about voting to leave this time. This is because the EU are highly unlikely to offer a generous deal to persuade us to reverse the first People's Vote; in fact, the terms are highly likely to be pretty appalling. In any case so much damage has been done to EU-UK relations that I can't see how the UK could be treated as a trustworthy partner by the other EU countries, and the EU's negotiating stance on Brexit has been so appalling and has shown such bad faith that I think it would be hard for us to trust them. Rejoining like some badly-behaved school kid who has played truant and can now expect to be punished for it is deeply unattractive.

    At the moment I think I would abstain if there were a second referendum. All outcomes would be disastrous.
    I felt like that about the first one. Far too difficult and finely balanced decision (heart and head): lots of push factors but the pull factor i.e. what were we moving to was a chimera.

    I am beginning to feel that there is no point in voting anymore. My vote in my constituency doesn't matter. It didn't matter in 2016 and I won't get one now.

    So blathering on the internet is the only thing left or, as Voltaire put it, cultivating one's jardin.
    Come on you two. You're both better than that. Get a grip. This is the moment where good people get to work. If you don't like the choice on offer, get off your backsides and stand.
    I am of an age where even if I wanted to I would not even be considered. Parties want biddable youngsters not feisty women with knowledge and experience who know their own mind and are not afraid of saying what they think.
    That's a load of old rubbish. I am sure I could coach you into a safe Labour seat, not that you would want one of those.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited November 2018
    #It's beginning to feel a lot like Die Hard#

    Nothing more festive than digging into a mince pie and seeing Gruber enter the Naktomi plaza. My eldest is old enough for this festive treat.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Welcome to PB, @mazing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
    I did a Die Hard thread last December

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
    I did a Die Hard thread last December

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/
    As we know the plebs are wrong about almost everything.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    Scott_P said:

    david_herdson said:


    Certainly, the damage to the economy from a No Deal outcome would be severe but the damage to the country's political and social organism would be much worse were the votes of so many people to be overriden without providing reasons that *they* accept. Trust in democracy and the norms of political behaviour could well break down, taking the country down a very dark road.

    I don't think is true.

    If we leave with no deal, those that voted to leave are not going to be silent and happy about their lot.

    As things get worse they will be noisy and angry at the politicians who promised them £350m a week for the NHS, among other things, which were of course not predicated on a deal. They were the dividends of leaving, full stop.

    So yes, there might be riots if we remained, but to think that leaving with no deal is the way to avoid them is naive
    If it comes to it, I'd rather have riots because the public believe politicians are crap than because democracy is crap.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am of an age where even if I wanted to I would not even be considered. Parties want biddable youngsters not feisty women with knowledge and experience who know their own mind and are not afraid of saying what they think.

    That is true of most men, never mind political parties :D
    No wonder we invest so much into our shoes...... :)
    :+1:

    Indeed. Time to go shopping :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
    I did a Die Hard thread last December

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/
    As we know the plebs are wrong about almost everything.
    They are right about Die Hard, wrong about Brexit and pineapple on pizza.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/24/reviewing-2017-the-polling-that-made-me-think-53-of-the-electorate-should-be-denied-the-vote/
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    If there were another referendum, I'd think seriously about voting to leave this time. This is because the EU are highly unlikely to offer a generous deal to persuade us to reverse the first People's Vote; in fact, the terms are highly likely to be pretty appalling. In any case so much damage has been done to EU-UK relations that I can't see how the UK could be treated as a trustworthy partner by the other EU countries, and the EU's negotiating stance on Brexit has been so appalling and has shown such bad faith that I think it would be hard for us to trust them. Rejoining like some badly-behaved school kid who has played truant and can now expect to be punished for it is deeply unattractive.

    At the moment I think I would abstain if there were a second referendum. All outcomes would be disastrous.
    I felt like that about the first one. Far too difficult and finely balanced decision (heart and head): lots of push factors but the pull factor i.e. what were we moving to was a chimera.

    I am beginning to feel that there is no point in voting anymore. My vote in my constituency doesn't matter. It didn't matter in 2016 and I won't get one now.

    So blathering on the internet is the only thing left or, as Voltaire put it, cultivating one's jardin.
    Come on you two. You're both better than that. Get a grip. This is the moment where good people get to work. If you don't like the choice on offer, get off your backsides and stand.
    I am of an age where even if I wanted to I would not even be considered. Parties want biddable youngsters not feisty women with knowledge and experience who know their own mind and are not afraid of saying what they think.
    I have often wondered what you do think. I have inferred that you are a Remainer but have you been prepared to say it?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Now that Arizona looks near-certain to be a Democrat win, and with very close results elsewhere and a good showing in the House and Governors' races, the overall picture for the Democrats does look rather better than it seemed to be in the immediate aftermath of the elections. Even so, it's not such a good result that the Democrats can conclude that voters as a whole are sick of Trump and the Republicans generally. Fairly neutral overall in terms of indicating whether Trump might get re-elected, I'd say.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    Thanks to everyone who's replied to these, most of which films I've not seen yet (I have started watching Die Hard: the Russian one several times but never got through it yet). Recommendations appreciated.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
    I did a Die Hard thread last December

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/
    Er, well, it's set on Christmas Eve, contains references to Santa and the entire premise of the picture is that the building is (semi) deserted because of the holiday. So it is clearly a Christmas film. I fear I may be treading a well-worn path here, however.

    As a whimsical aside, I have always thought it was something of an artificial plot device as what sort of ball-breaking company has its company party on Christmas Eve?!

    Is this normal in the States/Japan (the fictional Nakatomi is a Japanese company). Most London firms host their Christmas parties weeks earlier, usually on a Thursday or Friday in the preceding weeks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    It never rains but it pours.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    david_herdson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    Thanks to everyone who's replied to these, most of which films I've not seen yet (I have started watching Die Hard: the Russian one several times but never got through it yet). Recommendations appreciated.
    Die Hard 5 was so bad I wrote and published a PB thread whilst watching it in the cinema
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1061996453017645056
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Now that Arizona looks near-certain to be a Democrat win, and with very close results elsewhere and a good showing in the House and Governors' races, the overall picture for the Democrats does look rather better than it seemed to be in the immediate aftermath of the elections. Even so, it's not such a good result that the Democrats can conclude that voters as a whole are sick of Trump and the Republicans generally. Fairly neutral overall in terms of indicating whether Trump might get re-elected, I'd say.

    Seems a fair summary. Under those circumstances, and given the advantages of incumbency, then those odds look super-attractive.
    Especially since we can not discount the far from negligible possibility of the Dems putting up an entirely unsuitable candidate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1061984655493292034?s=21
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    Thanks to everyone who's replied to these, most of which films I've not seen yet (I have started watching Die Hard: the Russian one several times but never got through it yet). Recommendations appreciated.
    Die Hard 5 was so bad I wrote and published a PB thread whilst watching it in the cinema
    There should be a regulator that puts listed status on some movie franchises. If you want to make a sequel, it can only be shown if approved by a panel of experts. Die Hard 5 should never have been allowed to be released.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    Isn't there a Die Hard 6 schedule for the near future?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Isn't there a Die Hard 6 schedule for the near future?

    It's a prequel
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Isn't there a Die Hard 6 schedule for the near future?

    It's a prequel
    A Christmas Eve movie, then.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    O/T I think I've just read the real life A Game of Thrones; the Romanovs by Simon Sebag Monetefiore.

    Every one of them prior to the accession of Catherine the Great, seems to have been a complete monster. Each one tried to outdo the other in their appetites for alcohol, sex, and cruelty. Tsar Alexei had thousands of Old Believers burned alive; Peter the Great enjoyed torturing people to death, including his own son; he even had one of his victims wrapped in thick furs against the cold, so that he wouldn't die too quickly when he was impaled up the rectum; Anna enjoyed getting dwarfs drunk and pelting them with food; she made one of her chief ministers her fool. He had to dress up as a chicken, and entertain the court for hours on end with his clucking and squawking; she forced him to marry a giantess, and spend his wedding night in a bed and house made entirely of ice. Elizaveta ripped out the tongues of two noblewomen who criticised her fashion sense. Each of them shagged anything that moved.

    None of them was sober (at least when awake) and Russian courtly life was one long round of drunken parties, sex and torture.

    Under all this, the mass of the population lived in destitution, to which their rulers were completely indifferent.
    Naturally, this is all immense fun to read about, and I'd recommend the book to anybody. The most entertaining periods of history are those you would not want to live in.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Anazina said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
    I did a Die Hard thread last December

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/


    As a whimsical aside, I have always thought it was something of an artificial plot device as what sort of ball-breaking company has its company party on Christmas Eve?!

    Scrooge & Marley PLC?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Now that Arizona looks near-certain to be a Democrat win, and with very close results elsewhere and a good showing in the House and Governors' races, the overall picture for the Democrats does look rather better than it seemed to be in the immediate aftermath of the elections. Even so, it's not such a good result that the Democrats can conclude that voters as a whole are sick of Trump and the Republicans generally. Fairly neutral overall in terms of indicating whether Trump might get re-elected, I'd say.

    There's a serious possibility of the presidency being called for Trump on election night, with late counted returns taking the Dems over the line I'd say.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Anazina said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
    I did a Die Hard thread last December

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/


    As a whimsical aside, I have always thought it was something of an artificial plot device as what sort of ball-breaking company has its company party on Christmas Eve?!

    Scrooge & Marley PLC?
    It was held by that well known law firm founded by Messrs Sue, Grabbit, and Runne.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    Thanks to everyone who's replied to these, most of which films I've not seen yet (I have started watching Die Hard: the Russian one several times but never got through it yet). Recommendations appreciated.
    Die Hard 5 was so bad I wrote and published a PB thread whilst watching it in the cinema
    There should be a regulator that puts listed status on some movie franchises. If you want to make a sequel, it can only be shown if approved by a panel of experts. Die Hard 5 should never have been allowed to be released.
    I'm prepared to sit on that panel.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291
    No Christmas threads until Christmas please.

    For me it is not until you have heard a good brass band play '''In the deep midwinter" at such a funereal pace that you feel like you have had a Dementor kiss your soul, yet left the tiniest pilot light of a Patronus, that Christmas can be discussed.

    Though I hear the ghost of my old (Anglican) priest chastise that it is an Advent hymn.

    It is very many years since I last saw Die Hard - I would only care to offer a judgement on any brass band set list therein.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. F, cheers for that. I enjoyed the same author's book about Stalin (the Court of the Red Tsar).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    Anazina said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
    I did a Die Hard thread last December

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/


    As a whimsical aside, I have always thought it was something of an artificial plot device as what sort of ball-breaking company has its company party on Christmas Eve?!

    Scrooge & Marley PLC?
    It was held by that well known law firm founded by Messrs Sue, Grabbit, and Runne.
    I seemed to remember there is a law firm called Wright Hassall....Perhaps not one you want to use if you like an easy life.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Now that Arizona looks near-certain to be a Democrat win, and with very close results elsewhere and a good showing in the House and Governors' races, the overall picture for the Democrats does look rather better than it seemed to be in the immediate aftermath of the elections. Even so, it's not such a good result that the Democrats can conclude that voters as a whole are sick of Trump and the Republicans generally. Fairly neutral overall in terms of indicating whether Trump might get re-elected, I'd say.

    There's a serious possibility of the presidency being called for Trump on election night, with late counted returns taking the Dems over the line I'd say.
    Can you imagine the legal cases?

    I'm prepared to bet the house on Kavanaugh being on siding with Trump.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Now that Arizona looks near-certain to be a Democrat win, and with very close results elsewhere and a good showing in the House and Governors' races, the overall picture for the Democrats does look rather better than it seemed to be in the immediate aftermath of the elections. Even so, it's not such a good result that the Democrats can conclude that voters as a whole are sick of Trump and the Republicans generally. Fairly neutral overall in terms of indicating whether Trump might get re-elected, I'd say.

    There's a serious possibility of the presidency being called for Trump on election night, with late counted returns taking the Dems over the line I'd say.
    Can you imagine the legal cases?

    I'm prepared to bet the house on Kavanaugh being on siding with Trump.
    One thing for certain, he wouldn't budge. He would be glued inside that White House, like...erhh....like Gordon Brown inside #10.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    "Europe Elects
    ‏@EuropeElects

    UK, YouGov poll:

    CON-ECR: 41%
    LAB-S&D: 37% (-2)
    LDEM-ALDE: 8% (+1)
    UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
    SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4% (+2)

    Field work: 4/11/18 – 5/11/18
    Sample size: 1,637"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    Anazina said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
    I did a Die Hard thread last December

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/


    As a whimsical aside, I have always thought it was something of an artificial plot device as what sort of ball-breaking company has its company party on Christmas Eve?!

    Scrooge & Marley PLC?
    It was held by that well known law firm founded by Messrs Sue, Grabbit, and Runne.
    I seemed to remember there is a law firm called Wright Hassall....Perhaps not one you want to use if you like an easy life.
    Based in Leamington Spa, they do a lot of work chasing up debts and enforcing CCJs.

    I dealt with them on behalf of a friend, they don't like it up 'em.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    Anazina said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
    I did a Die Hard thread last December

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/


    As a whimsical aside, I have always thought it was something of an artificial plot device as what sort of ball-breaking company has its company party on Christmas Eve?!

    Scrooge & Marley PLC?
    It was held by that well known law firm founded by Messrs Sue, Grabbit, and Runne.
    didnt they merge with Shyster, Bigfee and Doolittle ?
  • mazingmazing Posts: 3
    > There's a serious possibility of the presidency being called for Trump on election night, with late counted returns taking the Dems over the line I'd say.

    Agreed. I found these results super-confusing. The NYTimes was saying '100% counted', but it wasn't. You could get quite badly burned betting on the sure thing. (OTOH I think there is money in betting against the GOP in-running where early results are from rural Trump areas and the Democrat cities are not in yet - trouble is liquidity)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    If there were another referendum, I'd think seriously about voting to leave this time. This is because the EU are highly unlikely to offer a generous deal to persuade us to reverse the first People's Vote; in fact, the terms are highly likely to be pretty appalling. In any case so much damage has been done to EU-UK relations that I can't see how the UK could be treated as a trustworthy partner by the other EU countries, and the EU's negotiating stance on Brexit has been so appalling and has shown such bad faith that I think it would be hard for us to trust them. Rejoining like some badly-behaved school kid who has played truant and can now expect to be punished for it is deeply unattractive.

    At the moment I think I would abstain if there were a second referendum. All outcomes would be disastrous.
    I felt like that about the first one. Far too difficult and finely balanced decision (heart and head): lots of push factors but the pull factor i.e. what were we moving to was a chimera.

    I am beginning to feel that there is no point in voting anymore. My vote in my constituency doesn't matter. It didn't matter in 2016 and I won't get one now.

    So blathering on the internet is the only thing left or, as Voltaire put it, cultivating one's jardin.
    Come on you two. You're both better than that. Get a grip. This is the moment where good people get to work. If you don't like the choice on offer, get off your backsides and stand.
    I am of an age where even if I wanted to I would not even be considered. Parties want biddable youngsters not feisty women with knowledge and experience who know their own mind and are not afraid of saying what they think.
    That's a load of old rubbish. I am sure I could coach you into a safe Labour seat, not that you would want one of those.
    Not under Corbyn. But under a different Labour leader, yeah I might. But - all due respect to your skills - it ain't going to happen. I could probably do more good getting involved in local campaigns.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Talking about Wright Hassall

    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/wright-hassall-lawyers-try-harder-glorious-attempt-rugby
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    I see the BBC are declaring it's a crucial 48 hour period for Brexit.

    Again. A bit like Tory backbench plots. Deadlines seem to come and go whooshing past and no-one seems to notice. Ever seen those late night quiz shows where they want you to ring in and guess the answers? Will all fake countdowns where nothing happens at the end, to give a sense of urgency and excitement?

    If there's one thing I won't miss about Brexit negotiations it's those god-damn ticking clocks all the time.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Latest Westminster voting intention (4-5 Nov)
    Con - 41%
    Lab - 37%
    Lib Dem - 8%
    Other - 14%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,891
    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    ‏@EuropeElects

    UK, YouGov poll:

    CON-ECR: 41%
    LAB-S&D: 37% (-2)
    LDEM-ALDE: 8% (+1)
    UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
    SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4% (+2)

    Field work: 4/11/18 – 5/11/18
    Sample size: 1,637"

    Presumably they are going to stop these European grouping designations in March next year?

    It really says everything that ever needed to be said about Corbyn that the Tories are actually increasing their lead as ministers make for the door.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    mazing said:

    > There's a serious possibility of the presidency being called for Trump on election night, with late counted returns taking the Dems over the line I'd say.

    Agreed. I found these results super-confusing. The NYTimes was saying '100% counted', but it wasn't. You could get quite badly burned betting on the sure thing. (OTOH I think there is money in betting against the GOP in-running where early results are from rural Trump areas and the Democrat cities are not in yet - trouble is liquidity)

    100% counted often doesn't include late votes, it just means 100% on the night.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Judgement Day:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46178677

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zjC6aprlVY
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (4-5 Nov)
    Con - 41%
    Lab - 37%
    Lib Dem - 8%
    Other - 14%

    Labour - 2 and Corbyn down 2 to - 22 (TM strong and stable at 36% !!! )
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    edited November 2018
    Question....World Chess Championship is going on. I don't know a huge amount about it, but watching a few streams they have talking heads discussing "best strategies" as if there is a lot of moves open to debate.

    I was under the assumption that Chess AI was so strong now there isn't any real debate, you can just put the board in and it will tell you the next (near) optimal next move.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Question....World Chess Championship is going on. I don't know a huge amount about it, but watching a few streams they have talking heads discussing "best strategies" as if there is a lot of moves open to debate.

    I was under the assumption that Chess AI was so strong now there isn't any real debate, you can just put the board in and it will tell you the next (near) optimal move.

    Skynet Google Deepmind will find the best move.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,891
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    Anazina said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
    I did a Die Hard thread last December

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/


    As a whimsical aside, I have always thought it was something of an artificial plot device as what sort of ball-breaking company has its company party on Christmas Eve?!

    Scrooge & Marley PLC?
    It was held by that well known law firm founded by Messrs Sue, Grabbit, and Runne.
    didnt they merge with Shyster, Bigfee and Doolittle ?
    There used to be a very highly regarded Scottish firm whose name sounded incredibly like Delay, Worry and Expense. Now a part of Dentons which is rather dull by comparison.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Question....World Chess Championship is going on. I don't know a huge amount about it, but watching a few streams they have talking heads discussing "best strategies" as if there is a lot of moves open to debate.

    I was under the assumption that Chess AI was so strong now there isn't any real debate, you can just put the board in and it will tell you the next (near) optimal move.

    Skynet Google Deepmind will find the best move.
    The amount of hiring they have been doing is quite incredible. I believe they have about 600 people now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Pulpstar said:

    Judgement Day:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46178677

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zjC6aprlVY

    I know Bill Wisher (who wrote Terminator 2) - smart guy.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    tpfkar said:

    I see the BBC are declaring it's a crucial 48 hour period for Brexit.

    Again. A bit like Tory backbench plots. Deadlines seem to come and go whooshing past and no-one seems to notice. Ever seen those late night quiz shows where they want you to ring in and guess the answers? Will all fake countdowns where nothing happens at the end, to give a sense of urgency and excitement?

    If there's one thing I won't miss about Brexit negotiations it's those god-damn ticking clocks all the time.

    Yes, this isn't a crucial deadline. The November summit was always a nice-to-have - there's a regular December summit scheduled which could handle the Brexit agreement if necessary, and there's no reason why one couldn't be scheduled for January if it has to go that long. I think we would get into very difficult territory if nothing had been sorted by then.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:



    I am of an age where even if I wanted to I would not even be considered. Parties want biddable youngsters not feisty women with knowledge and experience who know their own mind and are not afraid of saying what they think.

    That's a load of old rubbish. I am sure I could coach you into a safe Labour seat, not that you would want one of those.
    That's right (cf Jess Phillips or Anna Soubry for two counter-examples). People outside party politics wildly overestimate the amount of central filtering. When I applied I had zero contacts in the party or the constituency - members voted for me on the night on the basis of who gave the best presentation. It was the 18th seat I'd applied to, and AFAIK the central party made no detectable effort whatever to influence the choice in any of them (there are well-known exceptions but it they're unusual.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Question....World Chess Championship is going on. I don't know a huge amount about it, but watching a few streams they have talking heads discussing "best strategies" as if there is a lot of moves open to debate.

    I was under the assumption that Chess AI was so strong now there isn't any real debate, you can just put the board in and it will tell you the next (near) optimal next move.

    If you're trying to beat a computer, that's more or less true. Beating a human involves taking some risks to get them off positions that are already known.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Reminds me of the time my bank manager informed me that my overdraft was a limit not a target.

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1061970832753332224
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1061992366985437189?s=21
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Anazina said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    At the moment I think I would abstain if there were a second referendum. All outcomes would be disastrous.
    I felt like that about the first one. Far too difficult and finely balanced decision (heart and head): lots of push factors but the pull factor i.e. what were we moving to was a chimera.

    I am beginning to feel that there is no point in voting anymore. My vote in my constituency doesn't matter. It didn't matter in 2016 and I won't get one now.

    So blathering on the internet is the only thing left or, as Voltaire put it, cultivating one's jardin.
    Come on you two. You're both better than that. Get a grip. This is the moment where good people get to work. If you don't like the choice on offer, get off your backsides and stand.
    I am of an age where even if I wanted to I would not even be considered. Parties want biddable youngsters not feisty women with knowledge and experience who know their own mind and are not afraid of saying what they think.
    I have often wondered what you do think. I have inferred that you are a Remainer but have you been prepared to say it?
    I have rarely been accused of not being clear about what I think!

    I have said a few times recently that if there were a vote now between No Deal and Remain, given where we are, I would vote Remain. If it were between May's Deal and No Deal probably the former, though I don't particularly like it and think we may as well remain if that is the option.

    I do feel that the last few years have been a huge missed opportunity to put the relationship between Britain and the EU on a much better, more stable and more productive footing. I don't really like the way either of them have behaved over quite a long time frame. So it does feel at times like a bit of a Hobson's choice.

    And I have very strongly disliked the way people are described as Remoaners or Leavers and the bitterness and bile directed at each (both in public and sometimes on this forum) so I want no part in that at all. So I've opted out of putting myself in either camp.

    I come here to enjoy and try out and test the different arguments and, when we're not arguing interminably about Brexit, learn things.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1061965651470925825
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/atrupar/status/1061965651470925825

    Sure it isn't a Last Week Tonight stunt? They have paid for spoof commercials to run on Fox in the past.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    NickPalmer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:



    I am of an age where even if I wanted to I would not even be considered. Parties want biddable youngsters not feisty women with knowledge and experience who know their own mind and are not afraid of saying what they think.

    That's a load of old rubbish. I am sure I could coach you into a safe Labour seat, not that you would want one of those.
    That's right (cf Jess Phillips or Anna Soubry for two counter-examples). People outside party politics wildly overestimate the amount of central filtering. When I applied I had zero contacts in the party or the constituency - members voted for me on the night on the basis of who gave the best presentation. It was the 18th seat I'd applied to, and AFAIK the central party made no detectable effort whatever to influence the choice in any of them (there are well-known exceptions but it they're unusual.
    I thought you had to be on a central list.....
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Anazina said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    I have a Die Hard thread for December.
    Entitled, The best Christmas movies of all time?
    I did a Die Hard thread last December

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/


    As a whimsical aside, I have always thought it was something of an artificial plot device as what sort of ball-breaking company has its company party on Christmas Eve?!

    Scrooge & Marley PLC?
    :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1061965651470925825

    When I first saw it I thought it was a John Oliver pisstake.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Oh Lord.

    Presidential harassment?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1062005636488142848
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,296
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/atrupar/status/1061965651470925825

    Sure it isn't a Last Week Tonight stunt? They have paid for spoof commercials to run on Fox in the past.
    Who knows in today's US ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    FrancisUrquhart said:


    Sure it isn't a Last Week Tonight stunt? They have paid for spoof commercials to run on Fox in the past.

    https://thetrumpybear.com/
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Cyclefree said:

    Anazina said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    At the moment I think I would abstain if there were a second referendum. All outcomes would be disastrous.
    I felt like that about the first one. Far too difficult and finely balanced decision (heart and head): lots of push factors but the pull factor i.e. what were we moving to was a chimera.

    I am beginning to feel that there is no point in voting anymore. My vote in my constituency doesn't matter. It didn't matter in 2016 and I won't get one now.

    So blathering on the internet is the only thing left or, as Voltaire put it, cultivating one's jardin.
    Come on you two. You're both better than that. Get a grip. This is the moment where good people get to work. If you don't like the choice on offer, get off your backsides and stand.
    I am of an age where even if I wanted to I would not even be considered. Parties want biddable youngsters not feisty women with knowledge and experience who know their own mind and are not afraid of saying what they think.
    I have often wondered what you do think. I have inferred that you are a Remainer but have you been prepared to say it?
    I have rarely been accused of not being clear about what I think!

    I have said a few times recently that if there were a vote now between No Deal and Remain, given where we are, I would vote Remain. If it were between May's Deal and No Deal probably the former, though I don't particularly like it and think we may as well remain if that is the option.

    I do feel that the last few years have been a huge missed opportunity to put the relationship between Britain and the EU on a much better, more stable and more productive footing. I don't really like the way either of them have behaved over quite a long time frame. So it does feel at times like a bit of a Hobson's choice.

    And I have very strongly disliked the way people are described as Remoaners or Leavers and the bitterness and bile directed at each (both in public and sometimes on this forum) so I want no part in that at all. So I've opted out of putting myself in either camp.

    I come here to enjoy and try out and test the different arguments and, when we're not arguing interminably about Brexit, learn things.
    Thanks. I probably just missed it. How did you vote in 2016, I presume Remain?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1061965651470925825

    When I first saw it I thought it was a John Oliver pisstake.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1061965651470925825

    When I first saw it I thought it was a John Oliver pisstake.
    That is a 100% spoof.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    ‏@EuropeElects

    UK, YouGov poll:

    CON-ECR: 41%
    LAB-S&D: 37% (-2)
    LDEM-ALDE: 8% (+1)
    UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
    SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4% (+2)

    Field work: 4/11/18 – 5/11/18
    Sample size: 1,637"

    Presumably they are going to stop these European grouping designations in March next year?

    It really says everything that ever needed to be said about Corbyn that the Tories are actually increasing their lead as ministers make for the door.
    41% after being in power for nearly 9 years isn't bad. Only slightly less than Blair achieved in 1997 when winning a 179 seat majority.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    As a working class Northerner does egalitarian have a different meaning down South?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062007027772350464
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-46151838

    It's naughty of me, but I do find this case very funny.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What, no thread on movie franchises where the 4th movie or later is better than the first 3 !!!

    Thanks to everyone who's replied to these, most of which films I've not seen yet (I have started watching Die Hard: the Russian one several times but never got through it yet). Recommendations appreciated.
    Die Hard 5 was so bad I wrote and published a PB thread whilst watching it in the cinema
    There should be a regulator that puts listed status on some movie franchises. If you want to make a sequel, it can only be shown if approved by a panel of experts. Die Hard 5 should never have been allowed to be released.
    Die Hard 4.0 was absolutely excellent. Watched it several times. Find the ones before and since mediocre or bad for various reasons.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Cyclefree said:



    I have rarely been accused of not being clear about what I think!

    I have said a few times recently that if there were a vote now between No Deal and Remain, given where we are, I would vote Remain. If it were between May's Deal and No Deal probably the former, though I don't particularly like it and think we may as well remain if that is the option.

    I do feel that the last few years have been a huge missed opportunity to put the relationship between Britain and the EU on a much better, more stable and more productive footing. I don't really like the way either of them have behaved over quite a long time frame. So it does feel at times like a bit of a Hobson's choice.

    And I have very strongly disliked the way people are described as Remoaners or Leavers and the bitterness and bile directed at each (both in public and sometimes on this forum) so I want no part in that at all. So I've opted out of putting myself in either camp.

    I come here to enjoy and try out and test the different arguments and, when we're not arguing interminably about Brexit, learn things.

    If the EU had been a less insecure institution, it would have negotiated a form of associate membership with Cameron that would have allowed some deviation from their gloriously misnomered "four freedoms", whilst for a reduced membership fee largely keeping the trading arrangements in place. Most people happy. Problem gone away.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Sean_F said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-46151838

    It's naughty of me, but I do find this case very funny.

    The Serbian and Spanish origin of two of the surnames is a quaint detail.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh Lord.

    Presidential harassment?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1062005636488142848

    The ultimate minority persecution?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Topping, the villain was very poor. The franchise went from German supervillains to a disgruntled ex-IT worker.

    That said, from memory, the film itself was better than I expected. Not seen the fifth.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    MarqueeMark said:

    Cyclefree said:



    I have rarely been accused of not being clear about what I think!

    I have said a few times recently that if there were a vote now between No Deal and Remain, given where we are, I would vote Remain. If it were between May's Deal and No Deal probably the former, though I don't particularly like it and think we may as well remain if that is the option.

    I do feel that the last few years have been a huge missed opportunity to put the relationship between Britain and the EU on a much better, more stable and more productive footing. I don't really like the way either of them have behaved over quite a long time frame. So it does feel at times like a bit of a Hobson's choice.

    And I have very strongly disliked the way people are described as Remoaners or Leavers and the bitterness and bile directed at each (both in public and sometimes on this forum) so I want no part in that at all. So I've opted out of putting myself in either camp.

    I come here to enjoy and try out and test the different arguments and, when we're not arguing interminably about Brexit, learn things.

    If the EU had been a less insecure institution, it would have negotiated a form of associate membership with Cameron that would have allowed some deviation from their gloriously misnomered "four freedoms", whilst for a reduced membership fee largely keeping the trading arrangements in place. Most people happy. Problem gone away.

    I thought associate membership had been offered and refused by Cameron......

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    If there wasn't so much attention being paid to Brexit by the world, people would be noticing a very sharp slowdown in the EU. At least we've got a reason for the slowdown here, companies are putting off investment because the government have yet to make clear what the situation is going to be in march re no deal. There seems to be no real reason for the EU slowdown but no one is asking questions because all the attention is on brexit.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited November 2018
    MarqueeMark said:

    Cyclefree said:



    I have rarely been accused of not being clear about what I think!

    I have said a few times recently that if there were a vote now between No Deal and Remain, given where we are, I would vote Remain. If it were between May's Deal and No Deal probably the former, though I don't particularly like it and think we may as well remain if that is the option.

    I do feel that the last few years have been a huge missed opportunity to put the relationship between Britain and the EU on a much better, more stable and more productive footing. I don't really like the way either of them have behaved over quite a long time frame. So it does feel at times like a bit of a Hobson's choice.

    And I have very strongly disliked the way people are described as Remoaners or Leavers and the bitterness and bile directed at each (both in public and sometimes on this forum) so I want no part in that at all. So I've opted out of putting myself in either camp.

    I come here to enjoy and try out and test the different arguments and, when we're not arguing interminably about Brexit, learn things.

    If the EU had been a less insecure institution, it would have negotiated a form of associate membership with Cameron that would have allowed some deviation from their gloriously misnomered "four freedoms", whilst for a reduced membership fee largely keeping the trading arrangements in place. Most people happy. Problem gone away.

    I dont think we can blame the EU

    Verhofstedt is on the record as saying he would have supported associate membership but Cameron ruled out asking for it. It appears he thought they needed outr "influence"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/930422944525938689
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412
    MaxPB said:

    If there wasn't so much attention being paid to Brexit by the world, people would be noticing a very sharp slowdown in the EU. At least we've got a reason for the slowdown here, companies are putting off investment because the government have yet to make clear what the situation is going to be in march re no deal. There seems to be no real reason for the EU slowdown but no one is asking questions because all the attention is on brexit.

    I would have thought the trade war between USA and China was a good reason for the slowdown...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited November 2018
    https://twitter.com/railwaygazette/status/1061995514613391362
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Scott_P said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:


    Sure it isn't a Last Week Tonight stunt? They have paid for spoof commercials to run on Fox in the past.

    https://thetrumpybear.com/
    Snopes says it's a real product, launched last year. They say the marketing may be a bit "tounge in cheek". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trumpy-bear/
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Anazina said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anazina said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Come on you two. You're both better than that. Get a grip. This is the moment where good people get to work. If you don't like the choice on offer, get off your backsides and stand.
    I am of an age where even if I wanted to I would not even be considered. Parties want biddable youngsters not feisty women with knowledge and experience who know their own mind and are not afraid of saying what they think.
    I have often wondered what you do think. I have inferred that you are a Remainer but have you been prepared to say it?
    I have rarely been accused of not being clear about what I think!

    I have said a few times recently that if there were a vote now between No Deal and Remain, given where we are, I would vote Remain. If it were between May's Deal and No Deal probably the former, though I don't particularly like it and think we may as well remain if that is the option.

    I do feel that the last few years have been a huge missed opportunity to put the relationship between Britain and the EU on a much better, more stable and more productive footing. I don't really like the way either of them have behaved over quite a long time frame. So it does feel at times like a bit of a Hobson's choice.

    And I have very strongly disliked the way people are described as Remoaners or Leavers and the bitterness and bile directed at each (both in public and sometimes on this forum) so I want no part in that at all. So I've opted out of putting myself in either camp.

    I come here to enjoy and try out and test the different arguments and, when we're not arguing interminably about Brexit, learn things.
    Thanks. I probably just missed it. How did you vote in 2016, I presume Remain?
    I never said because of my penultimate para. above. And to tease you - there was a third option.

    I have become very very disillusioned with politics in the last two years - with the judgment, morality, competence and infantile behaviour of most of the political class. There are very few politicians who I would give house room to - possibly Tobias Ellwood, but mainly because of what he did that day in March to save the policeman stabbed by the terrorist.

    And now I must work.

    Thanks for the chat.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/spencerstokestv/status/1062009994990772225

    Sunil, shall we start a petition on Parliament.uk to make yellow front ends mandatory on British trains again? It just doesn't look right.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    rpjs said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/spencerstokestv/status/1062009994990772225

    Sunil, shall we start a petition on Parliament.uk to make yellow front ends mandatory on British trains again? It just doesn't look right.
    I'd sign that petition.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    MaxPB said:

    If there wasn't so much attention being paid to Brexit by the world, people would be noticing a very sharp slowdown in the EU. At least we've got a reason for the slowdown here, companies are putting off investment because the government have yet to make clear what the situation is going to be in march re no deal. There seems to be no real reason for the EU slowdown but no one is asking questions because all the attention is on brexit.

    Max nobody outside the UK and RoI gives a shit about Brexit it's only a PB phenomenon that news elsewhere is of tertiary interest to Brexit.

    and yes if German GDP figures are bad this week the EU will be heading for a recession.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MaxPB said:

    If there wasn't so much attention being paid to Brexit by the world, people would be noticing a very sharp slowdown in the EU. At least we've got a reason for the slowdown here, companies are putting off investment because the government have yet to make clear what the situation is going to be in march re no deal. There seems to be no real reason for the EU slowdown but no one is asking questions because all the attention is on brexit.

    Could it be related to Brexit? Trump trade wars? Anticipation of the end of QE by the ECB?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    AndyJS said:

    mazing said:

    > There's a serious possibility of the presidency being called for Trump on election night, with late counted returns taking the Dems over the line I'd say.

    Agreed. I found these results super-confusing. The NYTimes was saying '100% counted', but it wasn't. You could get quite badly burned betting on the sure thing. (OTOH I think there is money in betting against the GOP in-running where early results are from rural Trump areas and the Democrat cities are not in yet - trouble is liquidity)

    100% counted often doesn't include late votes, it just means 100% on the night.
    Yes, note that the actual wording is something like "est. XX% of precincts reporting". Precints are on the day polling locations, or grouping thereof, like British polling districts.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1061988578354479104
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    MarqueeMark said:

    Cyclefree said:



    I have rarely been accused of not being clear about what I think!

    I have said a few times recently that if there were a vote now between No Deal and Remain, given where we are, I would vote Remain. If it were between May's Deal and No Deal probably the former, though I don't particularly like it and think we may as well remain if that is the option.

    I do feel that the last few years have been a huge missed opportunity to put the relationship between Britain and the EU on a much better, more stable and more productive footing. I don't really like the way either of them have behaved over quite a long time frame. So it does feel at times like a bit of a Hobson's choice.

    And I have very strongly disliked the way people are described as Remoaners or Leavers and the bitterness and bile directed at each (both in public and sometimes on this forum) so I want no part in that at all. So I've opted out of putting myself in either camp.

    I come here to enjoy and try out and test the different arguments and, when we're not arguing interminably about Brexit, learn things.

    If the EU had been a less insecure institution, it would have negotiated a form of associate membership with Cameron that would have allowed some deviation from their gloriously misnomered "four freedoms", whilst for a reduced membership fee largely keeping the trading arrangements in place. Most people happy. Problem gone away.

    So all the good bits, no freedom of movement for people, reduced payments.
    Sounds a bit like cherry picking.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1062012954994970624
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1061988578354479104

    Hillary 4.0? :D
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    logical_song said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Cyclefree said:



    I have rarely been accused of not being clear about what I think!

    I have said a few times recently that if there were a vote now between No Deal and Remain, given where we are, I would vote Remain. If it were between May's Deal and No Deal probably the former, though I don't particularly like it and think we may as well remain if that is the option.

    I do feel that the last few years have been a huge missed opportunity to put the relationship between Britain and the EU on a much better, more stable and more productive footing. I don't really like the way either of them have behaved over quite a long time frame. So it does feel at times like a bit of a Hobson's choice.

    And I have very strongly disliked the way people are described as Remoaners or Leavers and the bitterness and bile directed at each (both in public and sometimes on this forum) so I want no part in that at all. So I've opted out of putting myself in either camp.

    I come here to enjoy and try out and test the different arguments and, when we're not arguing interminably about Brexit, learn things.

    If the EU had been a less insecure institution, it would have negotiated a form of associate membership with Cameron that would have allowed some deviation from their gloriously misnomered "four freedoms", whilst for a reduced membership fee largely keeping the trading arrangements in place. Most people happy. Problem gone away.

    So all the good bits, no freedom of movement for people, reduced payments.
    Sounds a bit like cherry picking.
    Better than they will end up with.
This discussion has been closed.