What a shame that so many of my fellow countrymen and women are willing to vote for a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite.
What a shame that the other parties are in such a catastrophic mess that a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite seems like the better option.
We're a little over a year into a parliament, with the government being formed by a party that has been in power in some form or other for eight years. The opposition should be far ahead.
Corbyn and his cult-like 'followers' are a massive drag on Labour's electability.
The Leader of HM Opposition is more like the leader of the collaborators.... I guess we can expect to see a major fall in Labour support, even as the Tories implode... what a mess.
Just like there wasn’t going to be another election.
The mechanism for an election was already in place, as were several strong reasons for calling one. Neither point holds (for the PM at least) for a new referendum.
Theresa May does have strong reasons for a new referendum: to secure her legacy; to prolong her time in office; to kick the can down the road.
The Prime Minister should do what David Cameron did not: set up a Royal Commission to weigh different Brexit options, and announce herself to be above the fray. The EU will surely agree to an extension of Article 50 and that will leave Theresa May two or three years at Number 10 sorting out domestic matters, and non-EU foreign affairs. The ERG can be bought off with seats on the commission, and Conservative MPs generally are lukewarm on Brexit but will want to keep Jeremy Corbyn away from Downing Street.
And if we had such a second referendum vote Nick, what do you think the outcome would be?
Who knows? Not me. I'd guess that Bad Deal would initially be a narrow favourite, as the "split the difference" option, but it would be championed by Mrs May, who isn't noted for her campaining expertise.
However, I think that once a bad deal emerges, McDonnell in particular will advocate Labour coming out for Remain as the least evil, with Labour offering to negotiate a better arrangement for the future (shades of Harold Wilson). Corbyn, who really doesn't care that much about membership either way, is IMO persuadable on that if an election cannot be forced, because a lot of people who are pretty dubious about Labour in its current form may well feel that if it means we can stay in, well, OK, let's go for it. Nationalising rail and water and being frosty to the US unde Trump really doesn't seem as scary to most people as it might have done 15 years so, and if it avoids the BRexit disaster, hey.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
there are other ports than Dover
There are indeed.
Unfortunately they will also have the same problems...
Actually not quite the same problems. Most other ports have overflow parking capacity for when things get congested (which they will, in a big way). Dover doesn’t have any, and can’t.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.
No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
I don't think anyone is going to blame the Lib Dems or the SNP for the consequences of a Brexit which they never pretended to support.
Interesting and worrying article David, thank-you.
I had to smile at: "It’s entirely possible that the country could see its worst disruption since the Winter of Discontent or the Three Day Week..."
It's a minor quibble the three-day week was massively more disruptive than the winter of discontent. The impact of the latter has grown in Tory mythology but look at the evidence of GDP growth:
The three-day week (under a Tory government, I might add) screwed the economy for years.
Nowadays our electricity backup comes across from France.
Also we rely on the wind blowing for renewable power.
Pray for wind post Brexit.
Luckily, Brexit and blowhards are intrinsically linked.
Interesting and worrying article David, thank-you.
I had to smile at: "It’s entirely possible that the country could see its worst disruption since the Winter of Discontent or the Three Day Week..."
It's a minor quibble the three-day week was massively more disruptive than the winter of discontent. The impact of the latter has grown in Tory mythology but look at the evidence of GDP growth:
The three-day week (under a Tory government, I might add) screwed the economy for years.
Mostly just bust after the Barber boom surely?
Is that not the point Benpointer was making? The economy in the seventies was disrupted by the Barber Boom. It recovered somewhat under Labour who had to cope with the consequences of the excessive demand expansion. Thatcher's regime made the mirror image mistake, and excessively cut demand. The Tory reputation for economic competence is as he says mythological.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
Problems at Heathrow, etc though. The Customs staff shortage is nationwide.
Interestingly a group to which I belong, which owns holiday properties in both UK and Western Europe has quite a lot more space available at Easter next year than normal!
I still think an agreed deal will emerge in December (last minute deals are the EU standard), but I'm less sure than I was that the obvious May strategy (paint all alternatives as so catastrophic that you just have to take her deal) will succeed. That's why the Jo Johnson resignation letter was so damaging - quite a lot of MPs will be open to the argument that the Government cannot reasonably insist that the only choice is between a bad option and a worse option, when Leave was sold to the public as a perfectly reasonable option.
What seems not to have been noticed is that May has said that if the deal was voted down it would be up to Parliament to decide what to do next. This appears to mean that if Parliament did vote for a second referendum with three choice (Deal, Remain or Nol Deal), the government would legislate for one. In those circumstances, I think the EU would roll their eyes and agree to an extension of Article 50.
And if we had such a second referendum vote Nick, what do you think the outcome would be?
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
there are other ports than Dover
There are indeed.
Unfortunately they will also have the same problems...
Actually not quite the same problems. Most other ports have overflow parking capacity for when things get congested (which they will, in a big way). Dover doesn’t have any, and can’t.
It's time for the Brexiteers to get their diggers out, and start levelling the cliffs of Dover.
What really would be a game changer is if Boris came out now and said that because Teresa May has not been able to secure a good deal, then staying in the EU is the most sensible path to take and that he favours a second referendum and would vote REMAIN.
It would probably finish off his political career but he would potentially achieve a major and ultimately positive place in the history books.
As opposed to the place he currently has booked in, as the begetter of a national catastrophe.
and the odds are that his political career is finished, anyway, his already having demonstrated the Peter Principle most effectively.
Just like there wasn’t going to be another election.
The mechanism for an election was already in place, as were several strong reasons for calling one. Neither point holds (for the PM at least) for a new referendum.
Theresa May does have strong reasons for a new referendum: to secure her legacy; to prolong her time in office; to kick the can down the road.
The Prime Minister should do what David Cameron did not: set up a Royal Commission to weigh different Brexit options, and announce herself to be above the fray. The EU will surely agree to an extension of Article 50 and that will leave Theresa May two or three years at Number 10 sorting out domestic matters, and non-EU foreign affairs. The ERG can be bought off with seats on the commission, and Conservative MPs generally are lukewarm on Brexit but will want to keep Jeremy Corbyn away from Downing Street.
That’s not a bad idea. May’s biggest mistake was to make Brexit party-political.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
Are the rumours true that leading Brexiteers want diabetics to grow insulin in their back gardens? I am growing a lovely crop of Warfarin and Methotrexate. Hope the frost doesn’t get it.
What a shame that so many of my fellow countrymen and women are willing to vote for a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite.
What a shame that the other parties are in such a catastrophic mess that a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite seems like the better option.
We're a little over a year into a parliament, with the government being formed by a party that has been in power in some form or other for eight years. The opposition should be far ahead.
Corbyn and his cult-like 'followers' are a massive drag on Labour's electability.
There are other examples of a party being well ahead eight years into government. Macmillan increased the Tory majority to 100 in October 1959 and remained ahead in the polls until Autumn 1961 - ie ten years after the Tories took office. In the 1987 Parliament the Tories retained a clear lead until late Spring 1989 - again ten years into Thatcher's Government. Eight years following the 1997 election , Blair's Government was re-elected in 2005.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.
No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
I don't think anyone is going to blame the Lib Dems or the SNP for the consequences of a Brexit which they never pretended to support.
Pretty sure there'll be plenty of thwarted Brexiteers ready to blame all & sundry for f*cked up Brexit (except themselves of course).
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.
No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
Are the rumours true that leading Brexiteers want diabetics to grow insulin in their back gardens? I am growing a lovely crop of Warfarin and Methotrexate. Hope the frost doesn’t get it.
Need also to develop some window-box kits for those of us who live in flats.
Interesting and worrying article David, thank-you.
I had to smile at: "It’s entirely possible that the country could see its worst disruption since the Winter of Discontent or the Three Day Week..."
It's a minor quibble the three-day week was massively more disruptive than the winter of discontent. The impact of the latter has grown in Tory mythology but look at the evidence of GDP growth:
The three-day week (under a Tory government, I might add) screwed the economy for years.
Mostly just bust after the Barber boom surely?
And the first Oil Crisis post-1973 Yom Kippur war.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
Problems at Heathrow, etc though. The Customs staff shortage is nationwide.
Interestingly a group to which I belong, which owns holiday properties in both UK and Western Europe has quite a lot more space available at Easter next year than normal!
I'm not surprised. A while ago I booked a skiing holiday with my daughter, partner, and her three grandchildren, in France departing 7th April 2019. School holidays. I'm now beginning to feel a little anxious though there's nothing I can do about it.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.
No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
I doubt. This is a Tory Brexit. They own it.
While as has been noted May's reputation will rightly have been thoroughly trashed for eternity, it will not have been quite as comprehensively trashed as Cameron's.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
there are other ports than Dover
There are indeed.
Unfortunately they will also have the same problems...
Actually not quite the same problems. Most other ports have overflow parking capacity for when things get congested (which they will, in a big way). Dover doesn’t have any, and can’t.
It's time for the Brexiteers to get their diggers out, and start levelling the cliffs of Dover.
A couple of tactical nukes would speed up the process.
Leaving the words to one side, that is a striking portrait of Jeremy Corbyn. He looks Prime Ministerial: ditinguished, powerful, and deep in thought. It could almost be in oils with Corbyn as vice-chancellor of Oxford, or president of the Royal College of Physicians circa 1855. And the poppy badge gives just a nod to Yeo's Blair.
Interesting and worrying article David, thank-you.
I had to smile at: "It’s entirely possible that the country could see its worst disruption since the Winter of Discontent or the Three Day Week..."
It's a minor quibble the three-day week was massively more disruptive than the winter of discontent. The impact of the latter has grown in Tory mythology but look at the evidence of GDP growth:
The three-day week (under a Tory government, I might add) screwed the economy for years.
Mostly just bust after the Barber boom surely?
Is that not the point Benpointer was making? The economy in the seventies was disrupted by the Barber Boom. It recovered somewhat under Labour who had to cope with the consequences of the excessive demand expansion. Thatcher's regime made the mirror image mistake, and excessively cut demand. The Tory reputation for economic competence is as he says mythological.
It's mostly based around pretending they were never in power in the 1970's.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
We could also do a Cuba and create our own indigenous health industry. Indeed we may have to. There's a reason why the hard left are so keen on Brexit remember.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
Genuinely, are all Brexit supporters virulently stupid or just the ones posting ESN stuff like this here?
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
Are the rumours true that leading Brexiteers want diabetics to grow insulin in their back gardens? I am growing a lovely crop of Warfarin and Methotrexate. Hope the frost doesn’t get it.
Need also to develop some window-box kits for those of us who live in flats.
Back to the animal-derived insulin of my youth. With the LD-50 test for strength.... 50% of mice injected with it died.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
Genuinely, are all Brexit supporters virulently stupid or just the ones posting ESN stuff like this here?
Brexit Britain. No medicine rationing. Probably.
And the people who blindly say it won't happen are mostly the same folks who utterly failed to predict that there might be a tiny, weeny problem with Brexit and the Irish border...
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
I suspect the pharma packaging could be reduced in size if needed. My statin tablets ceratinly could be.
Leaving the words to one side, that is a striking portrait of Jeremy Corbyn. He looks Prime Ministerial: ditinguished, powerful, and deep in thought. It could almost be in oils with Corbyn as vice-chancellor of Oxford, or president of the Royal College of Physicians circa 1855. And the poppy badge gives just a nod to Yeo's Blair.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
I suspect the pharma packaging could be reduced in size if needed. My statin tablets ceratinly could be.
No doubt, but that would require a license variation. Have we worked out who is approving licenses once we leave the EMA? Old King Cole? Anyone?
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
Are the rumours true that leading Brexiteers want diabetics to grow insulin in their back gardens? I am growing a lovely crop of Warfarin and Methotrexate. Hope the frost doesn’t get it.
On a wider point, Brexit has exposed people's (not just Leaver's) inability to cope with the world. They use little models of the world in their heads that are good enough for everyday use but which fall apart when pressured. It was I think Iain Duncan Smith who said "this Irish border thing wasn't important a year ago", which was around the time I started viewing this thing thru my fingers.
After we leave, it would be good if some of the backroom people in the parties had a sit down to think of a way to stop shit like this happening again. Not Remaining/Leaving, but the fact that so many in Government (from whatever party) are stupid and proud of it.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.
No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
I don't think anyone is going to blame the Lib Dems or the SNP for the consequences of a Brexit which they never pretended to support.
That's the point. Once the referendum result was known all political parties should have worked towards its implementation. Lib Dems will regret not working for a smooth Brexit. Looks like the SNP are changing their position and not going to resist Brexit anymore.
Leaving the words to one side, that is a striking portrait of Jeremy Corbyn. He looks Prime Ministerial: ditinguished, powerful, and deep in thought. It could almost be in oils with Corbyn as vice-chancellor of Oxford, or president of the Royal College of Physicians circa 1855. And the poppy badge gives just a nod to Yeo's Blair.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
I suspect the pharma packaging could be reduced in size if needed. My statin tablets ceratinly could be.
No doubt, but that would require a license variation. Have we worked out who is approving licenses once we leave the EMA? Old King Cole? Anyone?
Surely doesn't need a licence variation to change the packaging size. Different pharma suppliers already have different sized packaging for the same tablets.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.
No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
I don't think anyone is going to blame the Lib Dems or the SNP for the consequences of a Brexit which they never pretended to support.
That's the point. Once the referendum result was known all political parties should have worked towards its implementation. Lib Dems will regret not working for a smooth Brexit. Looks like the SNP are changing their position and not going to resist Brexit anymore.
IIRC the Tories felt that they were in charge and knew best. They didn’t want any help. In fact, again IIRC, any offers of support were refused.
Leaving the words to one side, that is a striking portrait of Jeremy Corbyn. He looks Prime Ministerial: ditinguished, powerful, and deep in thought. It could almost be in oils with Corbyn as vice-chancellor of Oxford, or president of the Royal College of Physicians circa 1855. And the poppy badge gives just a nod to Yeo's Blair.
Really?
He looks old to me, much older than I recollect. It also looks as though he has an eye problem, with the right eyelid more droopy than the left.
He certainly doesn't look like someone able to withstand the stresses of the job of PM with Added Brexit.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.
No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
I don't think anyone is going to blame the Lib Dems or the SNP for the consequences of a Brexit which they never pretended to support.
That's the point. Once the referendum result was known all political parties should have worked towards its implementation. Lib Dems will regret not working for a smooth Brexit. Looks like the SNP are changing their position and not going to resist Brexit anymore.
Wut? The SNP just voted in favour of a second vote!
Mr. Matt, it's that sure-footed charm that led Remain to the victory everyone anticipated.
I have some sympathy for people wanting to leave the EU. My sympathy for Panglossian Brexit liars and the retired trying to build a better yesterday is zero. It’s not as if their benefit will be affected.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
I suspect the pharma packaging could be reduced in size if needed. My statin tablets ceratinly could be.
No doubt, but that would require a license variation. Have we worked out who is approving licenses once we leave the EMA? Old King Cole? Anyone?
We still have our own MHRA, although it has, I think had to lay off staff because it used to do a lot of the EMA’s work on a contract basis.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.
No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.
No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
I don't think anyone is going to blame the Lib Dems or the SNP for the consequences of a Brexit which they never pretended to support.
That's the point. Once the referendum result was known all political parties should have worked towards its implementation. Lib Dems will regret not working for a smooth Brexit. Looks like the SNP are changing their position and not going to resist Brexit anymore.
Wut? The SNP just voted in favour of a second vote!
Let's see if the SNP abstain on the meaningful vote in parliament.
Interesting and worrying article David, thank-you.
I had to smile at: "It’s entirely possible that the country could see its worst disruption since the Winter of Discontent or the Three Day Week..."
It's a minor quibble the three-day week was massively more disruptive than the winter of discontent. The impact of the latter has grown in Tory mythology but look at the evidence of GDP growth:
The three-day week (under a Tory government, I might add) screwed the economy for years.
Mostly just bust after the Barber boom surely?
Is that not the point Benpointer was making? The economy in the seventies was disrupted by the Barber Boom. It recovered somewhat under Labour who had to cope with the consequences of the excessive demand expansion. Thatcher's regime made the mirror image mistake, and excessively cut demand. The Tory reputation for economic competence is as he says mythological.
It's mostly based around pretending they were never in power in the 1970's.
From my memories of the Heath government, for much of that time they weren’t, really...
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
I suspect the pharma packaging could be reduced in size if needed. My statin tablets ceratinly could be.
Yes it could, but it requires organisation. There's an old rule about "breaking bulk" (moving goods from one container to another). Broadly, the fewer times you break bulk the easier it is to transport. I think the reduction in size you would gain by repackaging the drugs would be more than offset by the increased time to do so.
The weird thing is: all this is doable... but not in five months with this government. And by the time we change governments... it'll be three months. Logistics always get you in the end...
Leaving the words to one side, that is a striking portrait of Jeremy Corbyn. He looks Prime Ministerial: ditinguished, powerful, and deep in thought. It could almost be in oils with Corbyn as vice-chancellor of Oxford, or president of the Royal College of Physicians circa 1855. And the poppy badge gives just a nod to Yeo's Blair.
Corbyn, distinguished academic... we really are in fantasyland today.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
I suspect the pharma packaging could be reduced in size if needed. My statin tablets ceratinly could be.
Yes it could, but it requires organisation. There's an old rule about "breaking bulk" (moving goods from one container to another). Broadly, the fewer times you break bulk the easier it is to transport. I think the reduction in size you would gain by repackaging the drugs would be more than offset by the increased time to do so.
The weird thing is: all this is doable... but not in five months with this government. And by the time we change governments... it'll be three months. Logistics always get you in the end...
That's true. Very true. And not just in this context.
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
IIRC the Tories felt that they were in charge and knew best. They didn’t want any help. In fact, again IIRC, any offers of support were refused.
I do recall a genuine offer to Labour from the Tories, to which Corbyn replied about implementing his manifesto I think. We've just had the coalition of Lib-Dem/Tory gov't too and now the Tories and DUP are working together for the good of us all
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
I suspect the pharma packaging could be reduced in size if needed. My statin tablets ceratinly could be.
Yes it could, but it requires organisation. There's an old rule about "breaking bulk" (moving goods from one container to another). Broadly, the fewer times you break bulk the easier it is to transport. I think the reduction in size you would gain by repackaging the drugs would be more than offset by the increased time to do so.
The weird thing is: all this is doable... but not in five months with this government. And by the time we change governments... it'll be three months. Logistics always get you in the end...
Which would be fine if insulin were the only thing we were worrying about. The truth is until it happens, no one really has much of a clue as to how big or small the problems might be. (The boss of one of the major food retailers was on the radio yesterday saying they weren’t really planning for No Deal/Brexit as they had no idea of what they should be planning for...)
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
Thanks.
And there is this:
" “Texas has been four years away from being competitive for 40 years,” said Peter Ernaut, a veteran Republican strategist who has advised Nevada Gov. "
I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.
I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.
NO deal is better than a bad deal, grow a pair and tell EU to take a hike rather than butt licking
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
It doesn't necessarily follow at all that Corbyn does well out of it.
In a chaotic no deal situation people might be justifiably angry at May, the Tories and the EU but why would they vote to make a very bad situation ten times worse?
I think it's just as likely the voters turn to a sane and strong Tory leader who's willing to do what's necessary to get a grip and sort out the mess.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.
No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
I don't think anyone is going to blame the Lib Dems or the SNP for the consequences of a Brexit which they never pretended to support.
That's the point. Once the referendum result was known all political parties should have worked towards its implementation. Lib Dems will regret not working for a smooth Brexit. Looks like the SNP are changing their position and not going to resist Brexit anymore.
Wut? The SNP just voted in favour of a second vote!
Let's see if the SNP abstain on the meaningful vote in parliament.
Oh, are we back in the "The SNP will vote to support a Tory government in a vote of confidence" reality
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
Having skimmed through it.... it deserves more, but there are things happening...... what is noticeable to me, both here, and elsewhere, is the casual view the Americans seem to take of gerrymandering. It seems OK if your side is doing it, and to be part of the constitutional rights of as governing party to draw electoral boundaries to its advantage.
I am reminded of the time I went, on a professional society visit, to a country (which I shall not name) where corruption was rife, and our hosts were, by and large, opposition supporters. They didn’t appear to have worries about corruption per se, rather that they were out of power and therefore not ‘benefiting’ from it!
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
Thanks.
And there is this:
" “Texas has been four years away from being competitive for 40 years,” said Peter Ernaut, a veteran Republican strategist who has advised Nevada Gov. "
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
Thanks.
And there is this:
" “Texas has been four years away from being competitive for 40 years,” said Peter Ernaut, a veteran Republican strategist who has advised Nevada Gov. "
And it will be a whole different ballgame running against longstanding and popular senior senator John Cornyn in 2020. He won by 27% in 2014 - compared to a lead of only 16% for Cruz two years earlier.
Clearly who the candidates are matters - as the Republican Governor won by 13 per cent compared to Cruz's lead of only 3 per cent in the same state on Tuesday.
Beto may not find it so easy against Cornyn. We will never quite know how much was a pro Beto or anti Cruz vote - as 400,000 fewer Texans voted Republican in the senate vs the Governorship.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
This isn't 1940, and we're not at war with the rest of the EU. I'm not quite sure what to make of that line. One of the strangest I've ever seen on this site.
What a shame that so many of my fellow countrymen and women are willing to vote for a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite.
It sure is. But FPTP means people are forced into a binary choice. Those are never great. In the US tens of millions of decent people voted for a white supremacist sexual predator who openly mocks the disabled because they thought the alternative was worse!
A very good article by David Herdson. With all the Deal/No Deal/People's Vote framng the two senarios we discuss less than we should are #1 A two month A50 extension to buy a little time but avoud EP19 participation. I think this is quite likely if a very late deal is done. #2 No Deal deals to fascilitate No Deal and to put us on the hook for the £19bn actual divorce element of the exit bill.
As for the Johnstons... Well I don't know if this has been staged for dynastic reasons orit's a genuine syncronicity but it's lethal. Two articulate brothers counter triangulating against the utter awfulness of May's deal. That's the problem. No matter how pragmatic, less worse, cleaning up the mess, I wouldn't have started from here realpolitik May's deal conjours their is *no* political constituency for it. Brexiters will hate it as it's not a Unicorn, Remainers will hate it as it's not leaving. No one with a future will want to be associated with it.
And while I'm now past the pain threshold somehow this tawdry ****show going on during the Armistice Centenary is just too awful for words. When this is all over there will be a reckoning mark my words.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
I think many of us are done with simplistic assertions that everything will be alright on the night.
But equally many of us are done with simplistic assertions that everything will go wrong on the night when we've seen so many previous simplistic assertions proved wrong.
Generally its those who predict some sort of muddled middle outcome who are right rather than the posturing extremes.
Given what we've seen over the last two years pessimism is the safer bet. Still now our Brexit Secretary grasped how goods arrive on this island I'm sure it will all go swimmingly.
Yet we haven't seen the promised immediate year long recession, the City relocate to Frankfurt, the refugee camps at Dover and a strawberry shortage for Wimbledon 2017.
So why should we take seriously simplistic assertions that pessimism is the safer bet ?
Interesting and worrying article David, thank-you.
I had to smile at: "It’s entirely possible that the country could see its worst disruption since the Winter of Discontent or the Three Day Week..."
It's a minor quibble the three-day week was massively more disruptive than the winter of discontent. The impact of the latter has grown in Tory mythology but look at the evidence of GDP growth:
The three-day week (under a Tory government, I might add) screwed the economy for years.
Mostly just bust after the Barber boom surely?
Together with the effect of oil price rises after the Yom Kippur war.
And something which affected all western world economies (as did the 1979 oil price rise).
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
Thanks.
And there is this:
" “Texas has been four years away from being competitive for 40 years,” said Peter Ernaut, a veteran Republican strategist who has advised Nevada Gov. "
And it will be a whole different ballgame running against longstanding and popular senior senator John Cornyn in 2020. He won by 27% in 2014 - compared to a lead of only 16% for Cruz two years earlier.
Clearly who the candidates are matters - as the Republican Governor won by 13 per cent compared to Cruz's lead of only 3 per cent in the same state on Tuesday.
Beto may not find it so easy against Cornyn. We will never quite know how much was a pro Beto or anti Cruz vote - as 400,000 fewer Texans voted Republican in the senate vs the Governorship.
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
Thanks.
And there is this:
" “Texas has been four years away from being competitive for 40 years,” said Peter Ernaut, a veteran Republican strategist who has advised Nevada Gov. "
And it will be a whole different ballgame running against longstanding and popular senior senator John Cornyn in 2020. He won by 27% in 2014 - compared to a lead of only 16% for Cruz two years earlier.
Clearly who the candidates are matters - as the Republican Governor won by 13 per cent compared to Cruz's lead of only 3 per cent in the same state on Tuesday.
Beto may not find it so easy against Cornyn. We will never quite know how much was a pro Beto or anti Cruz vote - as 400,000 fewer Texans voted Republican in the senate vs the Governorship.
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
Having skimmed through it.... it deserves more, but there are things happening...... what is noticeable to me, both here, and elsewhere, is the casual view the Americans seem to take of gerrymandering. It seems OK if your side is doing it, and to be part of the constitutional rights of as governing party to draw electoral boundaries to its advantage.
I am reminded of the time I went, on a professional society visit, to a country (which I shall not name) where corruption was rife, and our hosts were, by and large, opposition supporters. They didn’t appear to have worries about corruption per se, rather that they were out of power and therefore not ‘benefiting’ from it!
I don’t think that’s entirely true. In recent years, long-standing Democratic states tend to be the one who have implemented bipartisan or non-partisan redistricting (and it is inarguably true that the worst abuses cluster in Republican states).
And of course the parties are not monoliths - practices vary greatly between states.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
It doesn't necessarily follow at all that Corbyn does well out of it.
In a chaotic no deal situation people might be justifiably angry at May, the Tories and the EU but why would they vote to make a very bad situation ten times worse?
I think it's just as likely the voters turn to a sane and strong Tory leader who's willing to do what's necessary to get a grip and sort out the mess.
Someone like Javid, for instance.
You don't think the Conservatives, having made themselves into the party of Brexit, would end up being about as popular as scabies if Brexit descended into chaos? Using the word "sane" about any Conservative in those circumstances would be inviting ridicule.
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
Thanks.
And there is this:
" “Texas has been four years away from being competitive for 40 years,” said Peter Ernaut, a veteran Republican strategist who has advised Nevada Gov. "
But against that, there is this from the Atlantic article: ...O’Rourke’s losing margin, which sits at about 2.6 points, was substantially better than the performance of many of this cycle’s incumbents, including Claire McCaskill in Missouri, who lost by 6 points; Joe Donnelly in Indiana, by 7.5 points, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, by 10.8 points; and Dean Heller in Nevada, by 5 points. Those were supposed the tightest races in the country.
But Cruz wasn’t the only Texas Republican who struggled. Firebrand Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick won reelection by only about 5 points, and indicted Attorney General Ken Paxton won by about 3.6 points against a first-time candidate who ran a campaign that got little help from anybody. That’s not supposed to happen in blood-red Texas...
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
Having skimmed through it.... it deserves more, but there are things happening...... what is noticeable to me, both here, and elsewhere, is the casual view the Americans seem to take of gerrymandering. It seems OK if your side is doing it, and to be part of the constitutional rights of as governing party to draw electoral boundaries to its advantage.
I am reminded of the time I went, on a professional society visit, to a country (which I shall not name) where corruption was rife, and our hosts were, by and large, opposition supporters. They didn’t appear to have worries about corruption per se, rather that they were out of power and therefore not ‘benefiting’ from it!
I don’t think that’s entirely true. In recent years, long-standing Democratic states tend to be the one who have implemented bipartisan or non-partisan redistricting (and it is inarguably true that the worst abuses cluster in Republican states).
And of course the parties are not monoliths - practices vary greatly between states.
Glad to read that about the Dems. And I note your last line and think that we on this side of the Atlantic don’t realise how different party structures are in the States.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.
Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
A packet of diabetic medicine (eg janumet, metformin) measures about 12x5x4cm. Call it about 250 cubic cc's in volume. There are 4 million diabetics in the UK. So that's 250 cubic ccs x 4 million per month . So that's 1 billion cubic ccs per month. There are 1 million cubic ccs in 1 cubic m. So that's 1 thousand cubic metres of diabetic medicine per month.
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
Not sure that this type of pulled-out-of-the-air calc is much use. This one has a number 50-60% different from the actual on just one factor.
For 4 million diabetics read
- minus half a million who are not yet diagnosed - minus half a million who are type I not type 2 - minus 15-20% Type 2s who are not on Metformin
equals about 2.5 million not 4 million.
Never mind that there are these things known as aircraft for hire, and then cargo on passenger planes, and a dozen or more different versions of metformin as licensed or generic drugs some of which are not in the EU, before we even start talking about emergencies...
We've had this once with scare stories about Insulin, even after Sir Michael Rawlins clarified the position within 3 days, and the industry made clear than plans were in place. Even now some of the remain campaigners are still yammering on about it on Twitter.
> Unfortunately, what also hasn’t changed are the other irreconcilable aspects of Brexit. The EU and Ireland still demand an open border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland; the DUP demand no regulatory dealignment between NI and GB; Tory MPs demand the ability to diverge from the EU; the EU insists that its external Customs Union border must be consistent.
This is a good summary. I think the path of least resistance is to work around the Tory MPs. It'll be a fairly small minority who are prepared to vote for "fuck everything, let it all burn", so TMay will have to ask other MPs what concessions they need to get them to vote in favour or abstain and give them to them. If she plays her cards right she'll be able to bring some of the rebels back over to her side to minimize the concessions.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
I think many of us are done with simplistic assertions that everything will be alright on the night.
But equally many of us are done with simplistic assertions that everything will go wrong on the night when we've seen so many previous simplistic assertions proved wrong.
Generally its those who predict some sort of muddled middle outcome who are right rather than the posturing extremes.
Given what we've seen over the last two years pessimism is the safer bet. Still now our Brexit Secretary grasped how goods arrive on this island I'm sure it will all go swimmingly.
Yet we haven't seen the promised immediate year long recession, the City relocate to Frankfurt, the refugee camps at Dover and a strawberry shortage for Wimbledon 2017.
So why should we take seriously simplistic assertions that pessimism is the safer bet ?
Isn't it the fault of the people who commit the crimes? Its too simple blaming poverty - as not all poor areas are seeing this problem on the same scale.
Also London has had some of the smallest cuts in police numbers proportionately - and the Mayor is adding 1,000 back this year reversing much of that loss. If its all about police cuts why is the biggest problem occurring in the place with the smallest reductions?
Of course one thing we can't discuss is the impact of family breakdown and fatherless households - resulting in young men finding what they lack at home in gangs (male role models).
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
Thanks.
And there is this:
" “Texas has been four years away from being competitive for 40 years,” said Peter Ernaut, a veteran Republican strategist who has advised Nevada Gov. "
Things that have been supposed to happen soon but haven't yet do often eventually happen. The one that springs to mind is fast Chinese economic growth, which failed to happen every year for at least a decade until suddenly...
Isn't it the fault of the people who commit the crimes? Its too simple blaming poverty - as not all poor areas are seeing this problem on the same scale.
Also London has had some of the smallest cuts in police numbers proportionately - and the Mayor is adding 1,000 back this year reversing much of that loss. If its all about police cuts why is the biggest problem occurring in the place with the smallest reductions?
Of course one thing we can't discuss is the impact of family breakdown and fatherless households - resulting in young men finding what they lack at home in gangs (male role models).
and poverty is lower across the board from a decade ago.
I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.
I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.
Parliament *cannot* pass a deal any more than you or I can. It does not have the power to force the government to, nor the mechanisms to agree a text to put to the EU. The only possible option would be to agree, virtually without amendment, whatever the EU put forward. .
That is essentially what ultimately will happen. The last couple of years has just been choosing which of the stock EU options Britain will ultimately select, tinkering around the edges and grandstanding for the headbangers.
The path of least resistance remains Remain, not the ratification of a withdrawal agreement.
On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.
There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.
The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.
I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.
No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
I doubt. This is a Tory Brexit. They own it.
Surely it's a People's Brexit ?
no, no, no - a peoples vote only counts as such if it is for remain.
Then it is a definitive once in a lifetime event
Just like remain told us the first vote was - well, until they lost.
Isn't it the fault of the people who commit the crimes? Its too simple blaming poverty - as not all poor areas are seeing this problem on the same scale.
Also London has had some of the smallest cuts in police numbers proportionately - and the Mayor is adding 1,000 back this year reversing much of that loss. If its all about police cuts why is the biggest problem occurring in the place with the smallest reductions?
Of course one thing we can't discuss is the impact of family breakdown and fatherless households - resulting in young men finding what they lack at home in gangs (male role models).
and poverty is lower across the board from a decade ago.
Interesting. I am not saying you're wrong (I don't know) but what do you base that assertion on?
I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.
I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.
Parliament *cannot* pass a deal any more than you or I can. It does not have the power to force the government to, nor the mechanisms to agree a text to put to the EU. The only possible option would be to agree, virtually without amendment, whatever the EU put forward. .
That is essentially what ultimately will happen. The last couple of years has just been choosing which of the stock EU options Britain will ultimately select, tinkering around the edges and grandstanding for the headbangers.
The path of least resistance remains Remain, not the ratification of a withdrawal agreement.
Britain cannot remain once it has left.
It cannot leave without overcoming political obstacles which are greater than the obstacles to not leaving.
> Unfortunately, what also hasn’t changed are the other irreconcilable aspects of Brexit. The EU and Ireland still demand an open border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland; the DUP demand no regulatory dealignment between NI and GB; Tory MPs demand the ability to diverge from the EU; the EU insists that its external Customs Union border must be consistent.
This is a good summary. I think the path of least resistance is to work around the Tory MPs. It'll be a fairly small minority who are prepared to vote for "fuck everything, let it all burn", so TMay will have to ask other MPs what concessions they need to get them to vote in favour or abstain and give them to them. If she plays her cards right she'll be able to bring some of the rebels back over to her side to minimize the concessions.
I think the "fuck everything and let it burn" attitude will harden, and it shouldnt be underestimated if somehow a crisis ferments a second referendum.
Has the British Government's negotiations being appalling? Oh god yes. Has the EU utterly ruthlessly exploited every weakness? Again oh god yes. They've lined up a punishment beating. Fuck em, fuck em, fuck em. The fundamentals of the British economy are better than most in the EU with the exception of Germany.
Give me a Trump like leader, "we may suffer as they punish us for leaving their club. They wish to blockade our ports, ground our planes and block essential medicines . They may try to bring us down, but we will persevere, we will change how we will do business. We will show the European Union what a modern free trading low regulation economy will look like."
Not sure that this type of pulled-out-of-the-air calc is much use. This one has a number 50-60% different from the actual on just one factor.
For 4 million diabetics read
- minus half a million who are not yet diagnosed - minus half a million who are type I not type 2 - minus 15-20% Type 2s who are not on Metformin
equals about 2.5 million not 4 million.
Never mind that there are these things known as aircraft for hire, and then cargo on passenger planes, and a dozen or more different versions of metformin as licensed or generic drugs some of which are not in the EU, before we even start talking about emergencies...
We've had this once with scare stories about Insulin, even after Sir Michael Rawlins clarified the position within 3 days, and the industry made clear than plans were in place. Even now some of the remain campaigners are still yammering on about it on Twitter.
It was an approximation to find the order of magnitude of the problem:if 50-60% wrong is all how wrong it is, I'll be very pleased.
Many people launch into massive rants about how bad things will be or how good things will be. It is a good idea to do such calculations first to test for plausibility: they are quick, cheap, and ballpark. I find such back-of-envelope calculations useful, and I think it did so here.
Isn't it the fault of the people who commit the crimes? Its too simple blaming poverty - as not all poor areas are seeing this problem on the same scale.
Also London has had some of the smallest cuts in police numbers proportionately - and the Mayor is adding 1,000 back this year reversing much of that loss. If its all about police cuts why is the biggest problem occurring in the place with the smallest reductions?
Of course one thing we can't discuss is the impact of family breakdown and fatherless households - resulting in young men finding what they lack at home in gangs (male role models).
and poverty is lower across the board from a decade ago.
Interesting. I am not saying you're wrong (I don't know) but what do you base that assertion on?
Pretty much all the ons figures. Child poverty, pensioner poverty, working poverty out of work poverty of all have seen a reduction from 2010 or at worst the same.
Comments
https://twitter.com/gavinshuker/status/1061188775341105152?s=21
Put the Jews in charge of Brexit I say.
The Prime Minister should do what David Cameron did not: set up a Royal Commission to weigh different Brexit options, and announce herself to be above the fray. The EU will surely agree to an extension of Article 50 and that will leave Theresa May two or three years at Number 10 sorting out domestic matters, and non-EU foreign affairs. The ERG can be bought off with seats on the commission, and Conservative MPs generally are lukewarm on Brexit but will want to keep Jeremy Corbyn away from Downing Street.
However, I think that once a bad deal emerges, McDonnell in particular will advocate Labour coming out for Remain as the least evil, with Labour offering to negotiate a better arrangement for the future (shades of Harold Wilson). Corbyn, who really doesn't care that much about membership either way, is IMO persuadable on that if an election cannot be forced, because a lot of people who are pretty dubious about Labour in its current form may well feel that if it means we can stay in, well, OK, let's go for it. Nationalising rail and water and being frosty to the US unde Trump really doesn't seem as scary to most people as it might have done 15 years so, and if it avoids the BRexit disaster, hey.
Most other ports have overflow parking capacity for when things get congested (which they will, in a big way).
Dover doesn’t have any, and can’t.
They need it to enact their mad.... err bold plans for the economy.
Interestingly a group to which I belong, which owns holiday properties in both UK and Western Europe has quite a lot more space available at Easter next year than normal!
A A400m has a cargo compartment that's 4m by 3.85m by 17.71m. That's 272 cubic m. Since not all the space at the back is usable and you can't safely pack to the rafters, let's round that to 200 cubic m.
So we'll need five A400Ms per month to service the diabetics. We have 27 and they can fly several times. So the diabetics are fine...
...provided that there's a competent government in place to do all this.
Brexit Britain. No medicine rationing. Probably.
After we leave, it would be good if some of the backroom people in the parties had a sit down to think of a way to stop shit like this happening again. Not Remaining/Leaving, but the fact that so many in Government (from whatever party) are stupid and proud of it.
He looks old to me, much older than I recollect. It also looks as though he has an eye problem, with the right eyelid more droopy than the left.
He certainly doesn't look like someone able to withstand the stresses of the job of PM with Added Brexit.
The weird thing is: all this is doable... but not in five months with this government. And by the time we change governments... it'll be three months. Logistics always get you in the end...
Very well worth reading, particularly the last 5 paragraphs.
Corbyn, distinguished academic... we really are in fantasyland today.
This is an excellent article on Texas, which provides ammunition for those of us who think O’Rourke ought to run for the Senate again in 2020.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/beto-orourke-lostbut-profoundly-changed-texas/575521/
That might also apply to his making a presidential bid, but that the risk/return calculation for both him and the Democrats would be far less compelling.
It can be done !
The truth is until it happens, no one really has much of a clue as to how big or small the problems might be.
(The boss of one of the major food retailers was on the radio yesterday saying they weren’t really planning for No Deal/Brexit as they had no idea of what they should be planning for...)
And there is this:
" “Texas has been four years away from being competitive for 40 years,” said Peter Ernaut, a veteran Republican strategist who has advised Nevada Gov. "
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/10/2020-elections-map-strategy-midterms-2018-980661
In a chaotic no deal situation people might be justifiably angry at May, the Tories and the EU but why would they vote to make a very bad situation ten times worse?
I think it's just as likely the voters turn to a sane and strong Tory leader who's willing to do what's necessary to get a grip and sort out the mess.
Someone like Javid, for instance.
I am reminded of the time I went, on a professional society visit, to a country (which I shall not name) where corruption was rife, and our hosts were, by and large, opposition supporters. They didn’t appear to have worries about corruption per se, rather that they were out of power and therefore not ‘benefiting’ from it!
Clearly who the candidates are matters - as the Republican Governor won by 13 per cent compared to Cruz's lead of only 3 per cent in the same state on Tuesday.
Beto may not find it so easy against Cornyn. We will never quite know how much was a pro Beto or anti Cruz vote - as 400,000 fewer Texans voted Republican in the senate vs the Governorship.
Blair was (at that time) very widely admired on the continent.
Certainly, the premise of the paragraphs is wrong. If Britain is dragged back into the EU, it will not help the cause of reform.
As for the Johnstons... Well I don't know if this has been staged for dynastic reasons orit's a genuine syncronicity but it's lethal. Two articulate brothers counter triangulating against the utter awfulness of May's deal. That's the problem. No matter how pragmatic, less worse, cleaning up the mess, I wouldn't have started from here realpolitik May's deal conjours their is *no* political constituency for it. Brexiters will hate it as it's not a Unicorn, Remainers will hate it as it's not leaving. No one with a future will want to be associated with it.
And while I'm now past the pain threshold somehow this tawdry ****show going on during the Armistice Centenary is just too awful for words. When this is all over there will be a reckoning mark my words.
So why should we take seriously simplistic assertions that pessimism is the safer bet ?
And something which affected all western world economies (as did the 1979 oil price rise).
https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/11/08/texas-senator-cornyn-reelection/
And of course the parties are not monoliths - practices vary greatly between states.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1061178754809118720
But against that, there is this from the Atlantic article:
...O’Rourke’s losing margin, which sits at about 2.6 points, was substantially better than the performance of many of this cycle’s incumbents, including Claire McCaskill in Missouri, who lost by 6 points; Joe Donnelly in Indiana, by 7.5 points, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, by 10.8 points; and Dean Heller in Nevada, by 5 points. Those were supposed the tightest races in the country.
But Cruz wasn’t the only Texas Republican who struggled. Firebrand Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick won reelection by only about 5 points, and indicted Attorney General Ken Paxton won by about 3.6 points against a first-time candidate who ran a campaign that got little help from anybody. That’s not supposed to happen in blood-red Texas...
For 4 million diabetics read
- minus half a million who are not yet diagnosed
- minus half a million who are type I not type 2
- minus 15-20% Type 2s who are not on Metformin
equals about 2.5 million not 4 million.
Never mind that there are these things known as aircraft for hire, and then cargo on passenger planes, and a dozen or more different versions of metformin as licensed or generic drugs some of which are not in the EU, before we even start talking about emergencies...
We've had this once with scare stories about Insulin, even after Sir Michael Rawlins clarified the position within 3 days, and the industry made clear than plans were in place. Even now some of the remain campaigners are still yammering on about it on Twitter.
This is a good summary. I think the path of least resistance is to work around the Tory MPs. It'll be a fairly small minority who are prepared to vote for "fuck everything, let it all burn", so TMay will have to ask other MPs what concessions they need to get them to vote in favour or abstain and give them to them. If she plays her cards right she'll be able to bring some of the rebels back over to her side to minimize the concessions.
Also London has had some of the smallest cuts in police numbers proportionately - and the Mayor is adding 1,000 back this year reversing much of that loss. If its all about police cuts why is the biggest problem occurring in the place with the smallest reductions?
Of course one thing we can't discuss is the impact of family breakdown and fatherless households - resulting in young men finding what they lack at home in gangs (male role models).
Then it is a definitive once in a lifetime event
Just like remain told us the first vote was - well, until they lost.
Has the British Government's negotiations being appalling? Oh god yes. Has the EU utterly ruthlessly exploited every weakness? Again oh god yes. They've lined up a punishment beating. Fuck em, fuck em, fuck em. The fundamentals of the British economy are better than most in the EU with the exception of Germany.
Give me a Trump like leader, "we may suffer as they punish us for leaving their club. They wish to blockade our ports, ground our planes and block essential medicines . They may try to bring us down, but we will persevere, we will change how we will do business. We will show the European Union what a modern free trading low regulation economy will look like."
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/britain-not-prepared-to-offer-asylum-to-persecuted-pakistani-christian_uk_5be3342be4b0dbe871a61b95?ncid=other_email_o63gt2jcad4&utm_campaign=share_email
Many people launch into massive rants about how bad things will be or how good things will be. It is a good idea to do such calculations first to test for plausibility: they are quick, cheap, and ballpark. I find such back-of-envelope calculations useful, and I think it did so here.
The most exhaustive set of recent stats:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/691917/households-below-average-income-1994-1995-2016-2017.pdf