Indeed I think you may be right. I can't quite see how it gets stopped by March 29 but nor can I see how it proceeds. It's clear there is no parliamentary majority for any proposal that May could bring forward and nor is there a majority for no deal. The likelihood must be that somehow the process will be stopped but exactly how that will come about is not at all clear. Revolution anyone?
There are only two and only two non-catastrophic choices: ratify the Brexit deal or revoke notification. Parliament is incapable of deciding between them because of the 2016 mandate, so it has to be put to the people.
It is not guaranteed that we must make a non-catastrophic choice. People make catastrophic choices all the time - no doubt many think that already - and so do MPs. But even the catastrophic ones Parliament is abrogating its responsibilities if it cannot get a majority for something, anything, so reluctantly, yes, the people need to be asked again.
Not because the tide has turned on popular opinion. Not because of Russian bots or spending issues, not because people did not know what they were doing. Because Parliament refuses to agree anything.
On topic, it's a very good letter from JoJo and while I don't agree with his reasoning, there is certainly a consistent logic to it.
I still feel that it's necessary for democracy to implement the June 2016 vote, particularly when current opinion remains as close as it is: there has been no decisive shift. It's also obvious that a second vote would have no better debate than the first one.
There are also other options - EEA, most notably - which could still square most circles in the game, without the need for a potentially extremely damaging second vote which would likely result in either a No Deal departure, with all the pain involved, or a Remain, where millions feel like their vote was betrayed and worthless.
The trouble is if Brexiteers don't believe this does implement the June 2016 vote, then we end up with no-one supporting the deal.
I think we're rapidly heading to hard polarisation of Hard Leave v. Hard Remain. For me, that inevitably points to both sides taking their chances on No Deal, for different reasons.
Sinema toast up by around 9000, no difference to last night. We await tonight's returns ! Florida is a complete and utter dumpster fire of an election now, even worse than Brexit.
Can we call it for Sinema now then? It looks the latest returns seem to be favouring her.
Yeah just catching up on Florida - looks like another "oops" moment for the south Florida election officials!
We can't call it for Sinema yet, but she's a strong favourite I think.
Sinema toast up by around 9000, no difference to last night. We await tonight's returns ! Florida is a complete and utter dumpster fire of an election now, even worse than Brexit.
Can we call it for Sinema now then? It looks the latest returns seem to be favouring her.
Yeah just catching up on Florida - looks like another "oops" moment for the south Florida election officials!
Maricopa is a bimodally distributed County, some bits heavily Republican bit, some heavily Dem bits. Given we don't know how they are counting they could have counted the Dem region returns yesterday and going to do Republican ones today. So definitely not callable yet (although I would have her as favourite).
But definitely way closer than the 6.2 I got post election night! Toot toot.
I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
I think it would depend a lot on what the actual question was.
May's Withdrawal Agreement Yes or No? That leaves open what would happen if the vote was No.
May's Withdrawal Agreement or Remain? If so, Remain on what terms?
May's Withdrawal Agreement, or crash out without a deal?
Or a multiple choice?
What is May actually offering with her Withdrawal Agreement?
It might take her 6 months to work out she has to actually say something about it.
Off topic - or fpt: re the Hogan Lovells partner and the IM one who dobbed him in.
There are three reasons why, although watching porn is not illegal - unless it is, say, child porn - the IM partner was right IMO to do what he did:-
1. Appalling lack of security by the HL partner. If someone could see that they could probably see confidential material. 2. Doing stuff like that in the office risked getting his firm embroiled in a sexual harassment complaint. I wouldn't like to work next to a colleague watching porn or have a boss doing so in the office. It showed an appalling lack of judgment by the partner. 3. Finally, potentially it put him at risk of being blackmailed and compromising his firm and his firm's clients.
So the IM lawyer was doing HL a favour. It is quite possible that others at HL knew what was going on but felt inhibited in speaking up.
On topic, it's a very good letter from JoJo and while I don't agree with his reasoning, there is certainly a consistent logic to it.
I still feel that it's necessary for democracy to implement the June 2016 vote, particularly when current opinion remains as close as it is: there has been no decisive shift. It's also obvious that a second vote would have no better debate than the first one.
There are also other options - EEA, most notably - which could still square most circles in the game, without the need for a potentially extremely damaging second vote which would likely result in either a No Deal departure, with all the pain involved, or a Remain, where millions feel like their vote was betrayed and worthless.
I think we're rapidly heading to hard polarisation of Hard Leave v. Hard Remain. For me, that inevitably points to both sides taking their chances on No Deal, for different reasons.
We've been heading there for ages now. Quite some time ago it seemed obvious that continuity remainers were prepared to risk no deal on the chance of remain, and Brexiteers simply did not seem to think it was possible remain could happen and were happy with no deal as a backup. Idiotic polarisation. No, compromise and muddled solutions are not always best, but we seem to have large numbers automatically discarding anything other than their preferred outcome, without even the decency to notice the big risks they are taking (no deal for continuity remainers, remaining for brexiteers).
I'd have more respect for them if more of them acknowledged that as the risk they were willing to take in pursuit of what they believe to be the best outcome rather than as now, where in effect large number of MPs are, to my mind, essentially lying when they claim no deal would be so bad, or that the EU was so bad since they are willing to risk remain by seeking perfection. If the muddled mess May is delivering is indeed so bad, and I can believe it, then they should not need to scaremonger about remaining or no dealing, since even they clearly don't believe those are the worst options. Clearly many do believe no deal is better than a crap deal, even though May does not, including remainers and Brexiteers.
I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
I think it would depend a lot on what the actual question was.
May's Withdrawal Agreement Yes or No? That leaves open what would happen if the vote was No.
May's Withdrawal Agreement or Remain? If so, Remain on what terms?
May's Withdrawal Agreement, or crash out without a deal?
Or a multiple choice?
Johnson seems to be advocating a 3-option, 2-stage vote. The first question on Remain / Leave, and the second on if the UK is to leave, whether with the deal or without it.
I think in practice, I think this would be a very difficult debate to have in public, and there'd still be a great deal of projection and speculation as to what each outcome would 'mean' for incomes, unemployment, growth, as well as a re-run of Leave's Project Fear about Turkish migrants and the rest. I'm far from convinced that there'd the choice made would be any better informed than last time.
Indeed. And, I think the Remain campaign would consist of 6 weeks of "TOLD YOU SO!"
One does wonder how well that'd go down with voters.
Mr. P, in Greek myth, Chaos preceded all things, and from it the primordial elements of the universe (Gaia, Eros, Uranus, Nyx/Erebus, and Tartarus) were born.
There's no Greek mythological entity called Vassalage that I'm aware of, though.
Blimey, lot of panic amongst the more febrile leavers on here. Be a good time for the EU to drop a nice fat carrot (of approved straightness and colour).
Those lads will think some fiendish coded EUSSR message will be attached about where to insert it.
Gifts: consistently Grecian Cakes: to be owned & consumed
Even Guy Verhofstadt thinks it's the EUSSR
Verhofstadt agrees with Hunt that the EU is like the USSR.
- Frustrated. I think Theresa May has been an awful, awful leader - I now support another vote because otherwise we will end up with a shit deal - If Remain wins I can put up with the sneering and gloating from the Remainers and the EU, and even roll my eyes when they make legislation banning another referendum for 10 million years, and bring in a new law that only allows people with university degrees and EU flag stickers on their car windows to vote - I still think Leave would win the referendum even if every newspaper, political party, cab driver and social media outlet was in Remain's camp.
But, to be honest, I've given up giving a fuck. Somebody (SeanT was it?) once wrote that Theresa May's tactic is to stupefyingly bore the general public into suicidal apathy through a relentlessly uncurious, uninspiring and dreary style of governing.
- Frustrated. I think Theresa May has been an awful, awful leader - I now support another vote because otherwise we will end up with a shit deal - If Remain wins I can put up with the sneering and gloating from the Remainers and the EU, and even roll my eyes when they make legislation banning another referendum for 10 million years, and bring in a new law that only allows people with university degrees and EU flag stickers on their car windows to vote - I still think Leave would win the referendum even if every newspaper, political party, cab driver and social media outlet was in Remain's camp.
But, to be honest, I've given up giving a fuck. Somebody (SeanT was it?) once wrote that Theresa May's tactic is to stupefyingly bore the general public into suicidal apathy through a relentlessly uncurious, uninspiring and dreary style of governing.
It's worked with me.
I think the great mistake she made was the 'citizens of nowhere' speech. It simultaneously alienated remainers as defining Brexit as something designed to marginalise their values in favour of the 'winning' side, and raise Brexiteer expectations to a level she was never going to be able to deliver on thanks to the nature of negotiations (specifically designed to favour the EU over the leaving party), the contradictions between the various cases for leave, and the complete lack of understanding of their own project from many leading leavers. The result? She had to fudge and kick the can down the road each time reality intruded, while Brexiteers demanded more flesh and remainers became more convinced the whole thing was an ongoing disaster.
If she had soberly set out in a speech why leaving was going to be a much longer and complicated process than leavers wanted, and explained that she wanted to unite the country round a departure that everyone but the zealots could live with, but that got us out without dicing with chaos, she might have fared much better.
Exactly. But she decided that proving to the ERG that she was a born again Brexiteer was more important than trying to forge a national consensus on an achievable Brexit.
Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.
It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
I find myself in the somewhat difficult position of being someone who supported Chequers as a fair compromise, but now unlikely to be able to support what emerges from these negotiations if what we are starting to hear is in any way accurate.
I will wait to see what's in the Withdrawal Agreement when it's published, but I'm not holding my breath.
If you can't agree with it what will you favour next Casino?
I don't know. I'm not insane but, at the same time, there's no way I'm giving any succour to the EU and the ultra-Remainers and playing their game either.
I'd probably very reluctantly favour a mitigated no-deal.
Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.
It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
I find myself in the somewhat difficult position of being someone who supported Chequers as a fair compromise, but now unlikely to be able to support what emerges from these negotiations if what we are starting to hear is in any way accurate.
I will wait to see what's in the Withdrawal Agreement when it's published, but I'm not holding my breath.
If you can't agree with it what will you favour next Casino?
To present the nation with a choice between two deeply unattractive outcomes, vassalage and chaos, is a failure of British statecraft on a scale unseen since the Suez crisis.
Another in a long list of 'why did it take you this long to notice then, if you are so smart' resignations.
For most politicians, resigning in protest is a once in a career event. If you are going to make such a sacrifice you would naturally want to time it so it had the greatest impact. Perhaps he "noticed" a while back, but has been waiting for the right time?
Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.
It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
I find myself in the somewhat difficult position of being someone who supported Chequers as a fair compromise, but now unlikely to be able to support what emerges from these negotiations if what we are starting to hear is in any way accurate.
I will wait to see what's in the Withdrawal Agreement when it's published, but I'm not holding my breath.
If you can't agree with it what will you favour next Casino?
As a leaver, I look forward to a second referendum.
It has been two and a half years and despite the fact that remain has doubled down again and again on project fear and campaigned relentlessly for two and a half years, the polls have barely shifted (54/46 now vs 52/48 on the eve of the referendum).
It will be a chance to stick it to the out of touch elite who think they have the right to ride roughshod over democracy, do as they say, ignore our opinions, and treat us as the serfs they think we are.
Didn't you hear us the first time? How about now?
That is certainly how a second referendum campaign will be fought, and it is for that reason I am certain it will win.
You were telling me off last night about second referendums....
Yes, I was. Because I think the people actively advocating for them are entitled elites who think they have the right to ride roughshod over democracy. I certainly wouldn't call for a second referendum myself.
That doesn't mean I wouldn't relish the chance to show every remainer who gets a semi on when the polls shift half a percent that, in fact, little to nothing has changed in the last two and a half years.
We beat 'em before, we'll beat 'em again.
Make it three referendums. Make it four. I'm pretty sure the more referendums you call, the louder the cry will be to honour the first one.
- Frustrated. I think Theresa May has been an awful, awful leader - I now support another vote because otherwise we will end up with a shit deal - If Remain wins I can put up with the sneering and gloating from the Remainers and the EU, and even roll my eyes when they make legislation banning another referendum for 10 million years, and bring in a new law that only allows people with university degrees and EU flag stickers on their car windows to vote - I still think Leave would win the referendum even if every newspaper, political party, cab driver and social media outlet was in Remain's camp.
But, to be honest, I've given up giving a fuck. Somebody (SeanT was it?) once wrote that Theresa May's tactic is to stupefyingly bore the general public into suicidal apathy through a relentlessly uncurious, uninspiring and dreary style of governing.
It's worked with me.
I think the great mistake she made was the 'citizens of nowhere' speech. It simultaneously alienated remainers as defining Brexit as something designed to marginalise their values in favour of the 'winning' side, and raise Brexiteer expectations to a level she was never going to be able to deliver on thanks to the nature of negotiations (specifically designed to favour the EU over the leaving party), the contradictions between the various cases for leave, and the complete lack of understanding of their own project from many leading leavers. The result? She had to fudge and kick the can down the road each time reality intruded, while Brexiteers demanded more flesh and remainers became more convinced the whole thing was an ongoing disaster.
If she had soberly set out in a speech why leaving was going to be a much longer and complicated process than leavers wanted, and explained that she wanted to unite the country round a departure that everyone but the zealots could live with, but that got us out without dicing with chaos, she might have fared much better.
Exactly. But she decided that proving to the ERG that she was a born again Brexiteer was more important than trying to forge a national consensus on an achievable Brexit.
She's ended up pissing everybody off.
Yeah. She has the same problem with the ERG Labour moderates have with the Corbynistas. They're zealots whose beliefs are defined by their implaccable adherance to the creed (even when it makes no sense). You can try and appease them, but they won't accept anything other than a total capitulation to their way of thinking and absolute fealty. There's no compromise you can make that will convince. Hence why she should have sidelined them and extracted loyalty at the point she did have power over them - immediately after her election in 2016.
Blimey, lot of panic amongst the more febrile leavers on here. Be a good time for the EU to drop a nice fat carrot (of approved straightness and colour).
Youve got to hand it to the EU. They are pretty good at this Hotel California game of never leaving.
Of course what the remains don't take account of is the price for recinding Article 50 will doubt include no more rebates and punishment rates of higher uk contributions.
Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.
It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
I find myself in the somewhat difficult position of being someone who supported Chequers as a fair compromise, but now unlikely to be able to support what emerges from these negotiations if what we are starting to hear is in any way accurate.
I will wait to see what's in the Withdrawal Agreement when it's published, but I'm not holding my breath.
If you can't agree with it what will you favour next Casino?
Rocking gently in the corner and dribbling.
That is not a very clever post.
Posts like that explain why Remain could so easily lose a 2nd referendum (were one to happen) by an even bigger margin than the first.
They'd be pompous, condescending, patronising, and arrogant from start to finish that it would repel voters in their millions.
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Plus Abbot is against. She is one of four or five absolutely key people according to newstatesman, who meet him every week to discuss political strategy. McD is another member, as are a couple of key aides.
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
He says he backed Remain. He has allowed Labour to take a very vague approach to Brexit to enable some of its high profile members to claim all options are on the table. Both things people claim he would not generally support, as he is supposedly just pro-Brexit.
I think he has grown into his role, in good and bad ways. One of which is that if push comes to shove he could very well do a ridiculous 180 if it means he thinks he gets into No.10. He has not spent his career trying to get there, but he is so close he can taste it.
Youve got to hand it to the EU. They are pretty good at this Hotel California game of never leaving.
Of course what the remains don't take account of is the price for recinding Article 50 will doubt include no more rebates and punishment rates of higher uk contributions.
Still cheaper than leaving.
This mess was perfectly predictable before the referendum and even the slowest witted should have spotted the car crash ahead post-referendum when they saw the narrowness and demographic split of the vote.
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Imagine how difficult his position would be if the government decided to go for a second referendum...
It won't. That's just as much fantasy.
What's the alternative? Back no deal and then end up with a Corbyn government outside the EU with Henry VIII powers?
That's one possible outcome. Another is that the Tories are reelected under a new leader to do what needs to be done to get the UK economy in order for its new model.
The best you could say is that it's very unpredictable.
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Imagine how difficult his position would be if the government decided to go for a second referendum...
Question - does anyone here actually think the government will be able to secure the votes for its deal? It looked tough already, and with people like Johnson minor not backing it either, I think it is impossible.
So what then can the government do? Replacing May is not a long term solution since the issue of votes for some deal or delay is still there. So really the gov backing a second referendum seems like its best bet to try to retain control of the narrative, suggest that it be no deal vs deal or something (no doubt that would be challenged), but at least seem proactive.
Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.
It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
I find myself in the somewhat difficult position of being someone who supported Chequers as a fair compromise, but now unlikely to be able to support what emerges from these negotiations if what we are starting to hear is in any way accurate.
I will wait to see what's in the Withdrawal Agreement when it's published, but I'm not holding my breath.
If you can't agree with it what will you favour next Casino?
Youve got to hand it to the EU. They are pretty good at this Hotel California game of never leaving.
Of course what the remains don't take account of is the price for recinding Article 50 will doubt include no more rebates and punishment rates of higher uk contributions.
Except by making it all about Ireland it does nothing to demonstrate to continental sceptics like in France and Italy that exit is a bad idea. It seems we are in a position whereby Europe thinks it is so unworthy of being a member of that only by exploiting violent tensions and history can it shift us. That's hardly noble.
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Imagine how difficult his position would be if the government decided to go for a second referendum...
It won't. That's just as much fantasy.
What's the alternative? Back no deal and then end up with a Corbyn government outside the EU with Henry VIII powers?
That's one possible outcome. Another is that the Tories are reelected under a new leader to do what needs to be done to get the UK economy in order for its new model.
The best you could say is that it's very unpredictable.
Those are fine words but I don't believe them coming from Heseltine. What I think he means is people should look inside and consider their consciences and their responsibility to future generations only if those things lead them to think a second referendum is best. He appears to discount that others have done those things and still don't support a second referendum.
Those are fine words but I don't believe them coming from Heseltine. What I think he means is people should look inside and consider their consciences and their responsibility to future generations only if those things lead them to think a second referendum is best. He appears to discount that others have done those things and still don't support a second referendum.
- Frustrated. I think Theresa May has been an awful, awful leader - I now support another vote because otherwise we will end up with a shit deal - If Remain wins I can put up with the sneering and gloating from the Remainers and the EU, and even roll my eyes when they make legislation banning another referendum for 10 million years, and bring in a new law that only allows people with university degrees and EU flag stickers on their car windows to vote - I still think Leave would win the referendum even if every newspaper, political party, cab driver and social media outlet was in Remain's camp.
But, to be honest, I've given up giving a fuck. Somebody (SeanT was it?) once wrote that Theresa May's tactic is to stupefyingly bore the general public into suicidal apathy through a relentlessly uncurious, uninspiring and dreary style of governing.
It's worked with me.
I think the great mistake she made was the 'citizens of nowhere' speech. It simultaneously alienated remainers as defining Brexit as something designed to marginalise their values in favour of the 'winning' side, and raise Brexiteer expectations to a level she was never going to be able to deliver on thanks to the nature of negotiations (specifically designed to favour the EU over the leaving party), the contradictions between the various cases for leave, and the complete lack of understanding of their own project from many leading leavers. The result? She had to fudge and kick the can down the road each time reality intruded, while Brexiteers demanded more flesh and remainers became more convinced the whole thing was an ongoing disaster.
If she had soberly set out in a speech why leaving was going to be a much longer and complicated process than leavers wanted, and explained that she wanted to unite the country round a departure that everyone but the zealots could live with, but that got us out without dicing with chaos, she might have fared much better.
Exactly. But she decided that proving to the ERG that she was a born again Brexiteer was more important than trying to forge a national consensus on an achievable Brexit.
She's ended up pissing everybody off.
It's her very own Brexistentialist crisis: Any deal is better than No Deal
au contraire – No Deal is the best deal we could get against an opponent determined to punish us for the impudence of Brexit.
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Imagine how difficult his position would be if the government decided to go for a second referendum...
Question - does anyone here actually think the government will be able to secure the votes for its deal? It looked tough already, and with people like Johnson minor not backing it either, I think it is impossible.
So what then can the government do? Replacing May is not a long term solution since the issue of votes for some deal or delay is still there. So really the gov backing a second referendum seems like its best bet to try to retain control of the narrative, suggest that it be no deal vs deal or something (no doubt that would be challenged), but at least seem proactive.
I do - eventually. I expect the question might need to be put twice.
Interesting the Adonis thinks a "People's Vote" is by itself the end of Brexit.
Like there's absolutely no question that a second referendum could lead to anything other than Remain...
They've learned absolutely nothing from 2016 - And their arrogance is why they could very easily lose this by an even bigger margin.
It could. I think Remain is about at its best chance since the referendum of getting what it wants, and I do think it would be closer even if Leave did win again, but he is frothing, he has no claim to consider anything on this matter rationally and sees only what he wants to see. Even though the people stunned him once he and others are still insistent the people could not possibly do so again.
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Imagine how difficult his position would be if the government decided to go for a second referendum...
Question - does anyone here actually think the government will be able to secure the votes for its deal? It looked tough already, and with people like Johnson minor not backing it either, I think it is impossible.
So what then can the government do? Replacing May is not a long term solution since the issue of votes for some deal or delay is still there. So really the gov backing a second referendum seems like its best bet to try to retain control of the narrative, suggest that it be no deal vs deal or something (no doubt that would be challenged), but at least seem proactive.
I do - eventually. I expect the question might need to be put twice.
No one has a feasible alternative option.
An interesting idea - how would that scenario play out? Can others try to force votes on other options, which will also be defeated, and therefore May (if still in place) will put the original offer on the table and see what they do then?
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Imagine how difficult his position would be if the government decided to go for a second referendum...
It won't. That's just as much fantasy.
What's the alternative? Back no deal and then end up with a Corbyn government outside the EU with Henry VIII powers?
That's one possible outcome. Another is that the Tories are reelected under a new leader to do what needs to be done to get the UK economy in order for its new model.
The best you could say is that it's very unpredictable.
But we promised nowt but sunlit uplands.
No Deal betrays the voters.
No we were promised doom, gloom, depression, emergency budgets, WWIII, a jungle in Kent, stuck in the back of the queue and more.
If that comes to pass you get to say "told you so" not that you were betrayed.
Posts like that explain why Remain could so easily lose a 2nd referendum (were one to happen) by an even bigger margin than the first.
They'd be pompous, condescending, patronising, and arrogant from start to finish that it would repel voters in their millions.
I find it hard to imagine a campaign that could possibly be more pompous, condescending, patronising, and arrogant than any statement from any Brexiteer, ever.
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Imagine how difficult his position would be if the government decided to go for a second referendum...
Question - does anyone here actually think the government will be able to secure the votes for its deal? It looked tough already, and with people like Johnson minor not backing it either, I think it is impossible.
So what then can the government do? Replacing May is not a long term solution since the issue of votes for some deal or delay is still there. So really the gov backing a second referendum seems like its best bet to try to retain control of the narrative, suggest that it be no deal vs deal or something (no doubt that would be challenged), but at least seem proactive.
I do - eventually. I expect the question might need to be put twice.
No one has a feasible alternative option.
An interesting idea - how would that scenario play out? Can others try to force votes on other options, which will also be defeated, and therefore May (if still in place) will put the original offer on the table and see what they do then?
The proposal gets defeated, the markets go bananas, the government has another go and chastened MPs either vote in favour or abstain after a couple of figleaves are added.
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Imagine how difficult his position would be if the government decided to go for a second referendum...
It won't. That's just as much fantasy.
What's the alternative? Back no deal and then end up with a Corbyn government outside the EU with Henry VIII powers?
That's one possible outcome. Another is that the Tories are reelected under a new leader to do what needs to be done to get the UK economy in order for its new model.
The best you could say is that it's very unpredictable.
But we promised nowt but sunlit uplands.
No Deal betrays the voters.
No we were promised doom, gloom, depression, emergency budgets, WWIII, a jungle in Kent, stuck in the back of the queue and more.
If that comes to pass you get to say "told you so" not that you were betrayed.
But Leavers from Gove downwards said it was Project Fear and told the voters we had sunlit uplands to look forward to.
Want me to list all the time prominent Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear?
Interesting the Adonis thinks a "People's Vote" is by itself the end of Brexit.
Like there's absolutely no question that a second referendum could lead to anything other than Remain...
They've learned absolutely nothing from 2016 - And their arrogance is why they could very easily lose this by an even bigger margin.
It could. I think Remain is about at its best chance since the referendum of getting what it wants, and I do think it would be closer even if Leave did win again, but he is frothing, he has no claim to consider anything on this matter rationally and sees only what he wants to see. Even though the people stunned him once he and others are still insistent the people could not possibly do so again.
The trouble is even if remain won a hypothetical Referendum Mark II, the margin would be so narrow it would be the height of arrogance to assume the result would mean the 48% or so who voted leave a second time would go "Well, that's me told, better shuffle off and do as I'm told and learn to love living under the EU yoke from now on". It would be a sullen, angry, cynical 48% with contempt in their heart for the whole damn system.
It would also be a license to start the campaign for Referendum Mark III. After all, if remain refuse to accept the result of Referendum I, why should leave accept the result of II?
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
He says he backed Remain. He has allowed Labour to take a very vague approach to Brexit to enable some of its high profile members to claim all options are on the table. Both things people claim he would not generally support, as he is supposedly just pro-Brexit.
I think he has grown into his role, in good and bad ways. One of which is that if push comes to shove he could very well do a ridiculous 180 if it means he thinks he gets into No.10. He has not spent his career trying to get there, but he is so close he can taste it.
Quite. Starmer is waiting for the right moment to switch Labour into backing a new vote and Corbyn will not stop him. The views of Labour members across the spectrum from Tony Blair to Momentum is quite clear. The pressure will soon become irresistible.
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Imagine how difficult his position would be if the government decided to go for a second referendum...
Question - does anyone here actually think the government will be able to secure the votes for its deal? It looked tough already, and with people like Johnson minor not backing it either, I think it is impossible.
So what then can the government do? Replacing May is not a long term solution since the issue of votes for some deal or delay is still there. So really the gov backing a second referendum seems like its best bet to try to retain control of the narrative, suggest that it be no deal vs deal or something (no doubt that would be challenged), but at least seem proactive.
I do - eventually. I expect the question might need to be put twice.
No one has a feasible alternative option.
An interesting idea - how would that scenario play out? Can others try to force votes on other options, which will also be defeated, and therefore May (if still in place) will put the original offer on the table and see what they do then?
The proposal gets defeated, the markets go bananas, the government has another go and chastened MPs either vote in favour or abstain after a couple of figleaves are added.
A lot of them would look bloody silly, given their rhetoric opposing the hypothetical deal at various points. Surely they are aware that the above reaction would likely take place?
Interesting the Adonis thinks a "People's Vote" is by itself the end of Brexit.
Like there's absolutely no question that a second referendum could lead to anything other than Remain...
They've learned absolutely nothing from 2016 - And their arrogance is why they could very easily lose this by an even bigger margin.
It could. I think Remain is about at its best chance since the referendum of getting what it wants, and I do think it would be closer even if Leave did win again, but he is frothing, he has no claim to consider anything on this matter rationally and sees only what he wants to see. Even though the people stunned him once he and others are still insistent the people could not possibly do so again.
The trouble is even if remain won a hypothetical Referendum Mark II, the margin would be so narrow it would be the height of arrogance to assume the result would mean the 48% or so who voted leave a second time would go "Well, that's me told, better shuffle off and do as I'm told and learn to love living under the EU yoke from now on". It would be a sullen, angry, cynical 48% with contempt in their heart for the whole damn system.
It would also be a license to start the campaign for Referendum Mark III. After all, if remain refuse to accept the result of Referendum I, why should leave accept the result of II?
You rule out the possibility of a landslide win for Remain?
I can still believe it. The pressure on him will be immense, it is what his party wants, and is he strong enough to resist that?
I don't know why people think he might.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Imagine how difficult his position would be if the government decided to go for a second referendum...
It won't. That's just as much fantasy.
What's the alternative? Back no deal and then end up with a Corbyn government outside the EU with Henry VIII powers?
That's one possible outcome. Another is that the Tories are reelected under a new leader to do what needs to be done to get the UK economy in order for its new model.
The best you could say is that it's very unpredictable.
But we promised nowt but sunlit uplands.
No Deal betrays the voters.
No we were promised doom, gloom, depression, emergency budgets, WWIII, a jungle in Kent, stuck in the back of the queue and more.
If that comes to pass you get to say "told you so" not that you were betrayed.
But Leavers from Gove downwards said it was Project Fear and told the voters we had sunlit uplands to look forward to.
Want me to list all the time prominent Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear?
No I don't. If those were wrong they were wrong. You don't get to have your cake and eat it too, we were told this and much worse which hasn't come to pass. Project Fear was so OTT that nothing short of the dead rising up to kill the living would be worse than we were warned about.
Cripes, if there is any problems with the fish then SCons are going to be buggering off sharpish. Ruth has half a dozen seats pretty much predicated on immediate withdrawal from the Common fisheries policy.
jo Johnson’s call for final say , with all this sudden conversion to democracy and referenda and call for a people’s vote is total hypocrisy . We neve got a final say after the first referendum to join , we never got a final say on Lisbon, we never got a final say on Maastricht . He elites have brought brexit upon themselves because they have ignored the silent majority for years and years. We voted leave after forty years of argument and debate not just a couple of months of campaigning .
The trouble is even if remain won a hypothetical Referendum Mark II, the margin would be so narrow it would be the height of arrogance to assume the result would mean the 48% or so who voted leave a second time would go "Well, that's me told, better shuffle off and do as I'm told and learn to love living under the EU yoke from now on". It would be a sullen, angry, cynical 48% with contempt in their heart for the whole damn system.
It would also be a license to start the campaign for Referendum Mark III. After all, if remain refuse to accept the result of Referendum I, why should leave accept the result of II?
One would hope, in a mature democracy, it would start a reasonable debate.
We should discuss our place in the World, our trade policy, our relationships with our nearest neighbours, and with friends and allies around the World.
We could, perhaps should, have regular votes on such things.
But we should call out bullshit, and expose charlatans who peddle outright lies about those things.
jo Johnson’s call for final say , with all this sudden conversion to democracy and referenda and call for a people’s vote is total hypocrisy . We neve got a final say after the first referendum to join , we never got a final say on Lisbon, we never got a final say on Maastricht . He elites have brought brexit upon themselves because they have ignored the silent majority for years and years. We voted leave after forty years of argument and debate not just a couple of months of campaigning .
Then you wont't mind turning out again just to cement the deal.
Interesting the Adonis thinks a "People's Vote" is by itself the end of Brexit.
Like there's absolutely no question that a second referendum could lead to anything other than Remain...
They've learned absolutely nothing from 2016 - And their arrogance is why they could very easily lose this by an even bigger margin.
It could. I think Remain is about at its best chance since the referendum of getting what it wants, and I do think it would be closer even if Leave did win again, but he is frothing, he has no claim to consider anything on this matter rationally and sees only what he wants to see. Even though the people stunned him once he and others are still insistent the people could not possibly do so again.
The trouble is even if remain won a hypothetical Referendum Mark II, the margin would be so narrow it would be the height of arrogance to assume the result would mean the 48% or so who voted leave a second time would go "Well, that's me told, better shuffle off and do as I'm told and learn to love living under the EU yoke from now on". It would be a sullen, angry, cynical 48% with contempt in their heart for the whole damn system.
It would also be a license to start the campaign for Referendum Mark III. After all, if remain refuse to accept the result of Referendum I, why should leave accept the result of II?
Yes that is true. It is selling an unrealistic vision and remainers who do that would be guilty of many of the same sins of too many prominent leavers, who knew things would not be simple but said it would be (people who simply believed that is more honourable, even if wrong).
My own preference would be for the Commons to pass something. Even if leaving happens if the remainers are right we will be back in in not that long a time, even if its longer than they want or think would be good for the country.
Comments
Not because the tide has turned on popular opinion. Not because of Russian bots or spending issues, not because people did not know what they were doing. Because Parliament refuses to agree anything.
I think we're rapidly heading to hard polarisation of Hard Leave v. Hard Remain. For me, that inevitably points to both sides taking their chances on No Deal, for different reasons.
But definitely way closer than the 6.2 I got post election night! Toot toot.
It might take her 6 months to work out she has to actually say something about it.
There are three reasons why, although watching porn is not illegal - unless it is, say, child porn - the IM partner was right IMO to do what he did:-
1. Appalling lack of security by the HL partner. If someone could see that they could probably see confidential material.
2. Doing stuff like that in the office risked getting his firm embroiled in a sexual harassment complaint. I wouldn't like to work next to a colleague watching porn or have a boss doing so in the office. It showed an appalling lack of judgment by the partner.
3. Finally, potentially it put him at risk of being blackmailed and compromising his firm and his firm's clients.
So the IM lawyer was doing HL a favour. It is quite possible that others at HL knew what was going on but felt inhibited in speaking up.
I'd have more respect for them if more of them acknowledged that as the risk they were willing to take in pursuit of what they believe to be the best outcome rather than as now, where in effect large number of MPs are, to my mind, essentially lying when they claim no deal would be so bad, or that the EU was so bad since they are willing to risk remain by seeking perfection. If the muddled mess May is delivering is indeed so bad, and I can believe it, then they should not need to scaremonger about remaining or no dealing, since even they clearly don't believe those are the worst options. Clearly many do believe no deal is better than a crap deal, even though May does not, including remainers and Brexiteers.
One does wonder how well that'd go down with voters.
There's no Greek mythological entity called Vassalage that I'm aware of, though.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1060953620324212736
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/before-he-led-the-justice-department-matthew-g-whitaker-promoted-company-accused-of-deceiving-clients/2018/11/08/f46e6db8-e380-11e8-ab2c-b31dcd53ca6b_story.html
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1060951868094980098
I'd probably very reluctantly favour a mitigated no-deal.
https://twitter.com/adamparkhomenko/status/1060756794023260160
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/10-reasons-whitaker-might-not-foil-mueller/575467/
(And Wittes is about as conservative a conservative as you get in the US, setting aside the ones who are not rational.)
That doesn't mean I wouldn't relish the chance to show every remainer who gets a semi on when the polls shift half a percent that, in fact, little to nothing has changed in the last two and a half years.
We beat 'em before, we'll beat 'em again.
Make it three referendums. Make it four. I'm pretty sure the more referendums you call, the louder the cry will be to honour the first one.
When has Corbyn bended to pressure anytime in his life against something in which he wholeheartedly believes?
Of course what the remains don't take account of is the price for recinding Article 50 will doubt include no more rebates and punishment rates of higher uk contributions.
Donald Trump Played Central Role in Hush Payoffs to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal
Federal prosecutors have gathered evidence of president’s participation in transactions that violated campaign-finance laws
https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-played-central-role-in-hush-payoffs-to-stormy-daniels-and-karen-mcdougal-1541786601
They'd be pompous, condescending, patronising, and arrogant from start to finish that it would repel voters in their millions.
What's McD's position?
* My view is that he's just too stupid to reappraise anything in a new light.
I think he has grown into his role, in good and bad ways. One of which is that if push comes to shove he could very well do a ridiculous 180 if it means he thinks he gets into No.10. He has not spent his career trying to get there, but he is so close he can taste it.
Still cheaper than leaving.
This mess was perfectly predictable before the referendum and even the slowest witted should have spotted the car crash ahead post-referendum when they saw the narrowness and demographic split of the vote.
Like there's absolutely no question that a second referendum could lead to anything other than Remain...
They've learned absolutely nothing from 2016 - And their arrogance is why they could very easily lose this by an even bigger margin.
The best you could say is that it's very unpredictable.
So what then can the government do? Replacing May is not a long term solution since the issue of votes for some deal or delay is still there. So really the gov backing a second referendum seems like its best bet to try to retain control of the narrative, suggest that it be no deal vs deal or something (no doubt that would be challenged), but at least seem proactive.
No Deal betrays the voters.
https://twitter.com/DrPhillipLeeMP/status/1060933910828408834
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1060960851350507520
au contraire – No Deal is the best deal we could get against an opponent determined to punish us for the impudence of Brexit.
No one has a feasible alternative option.
If that comes to pass you get to say "told you so" not that you were betrayed.
Edited extra bit: and Jo Johnson's odds to be next Con leader on Betfair down to about 26 (if you want to back him, Ladbrokes still has 101).
...who are overwhelmingly Leave.
...or were.
Want me to list all the time prominent Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear?
It would also be a license to start the campaign for Referendum Mark III. After all, if remain refuse to accept the result of Referendum I, why should leave accept the result of II?
I mean, staying on to take the hit for the total UC shitstorm can't be that enticing.
No one will resign on Sunday as it is the 11th hour etc etc.
Probably also look bad to resign on Saturday and appear in Sunday front pages when the nation is remembering.
So Monday it is then.
Or 9:50 tonight.
We should discuss our place in the World, our trade policy, our relationships with our nearest neighbours, and with friends and allies around the World.
We could, perhaps should, have regular votes on such things.
But we should call out bullshit, and expose charlatans who peddle outright lies about those things.
My own preference would be for the Commons to pass something. Even if leaving happens if the remainers are right we will be back in in not that long a time, even if its longer than they want or think would be good for the country.