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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo’s brother, Jo Johnson, resigns as a minister and demands

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo’s brother, Jo Johnson, resigns as a minister and demands a second referendum

With great regret, I'm resigning from the Government – I have set out my reasons in this article and the video below. https://t.co/hzimcS8uiR pic.twitter.com/hUN9RLzDfq

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    First.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Johnson for Leader.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Johnson for Leader.

    No, not the usual one!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Allow me to restate my prediction that a second referendum will be announced before the parliamentary vote, not afterwards.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    OldKingCole said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Johnson for Leader.

    No, not the usual one!
    Yup.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    It seems to me that the ball is now in the EU's court.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291
    Tissue_Price said:

    david_herdson said:

    I disagree. If May lost a VoNC, Corbyn, Momentum and all the social media left would be jumping up and down and demanding the 'right' to form a government, citing various precedents and authorities (of which there are enough to make a plausible case). There is a much greater risk to the Palace's independence from not calling Corbyn than from calling him.

    My guess as to how things would play out are that within 24 hours of the VoNC, there is a good chance that May resigns or is forced out. If, within 3-4 days, it's clear that there is likely to be an uncontested Tory leadership election, the Palace will hold off inviting anyone else until the new Tory leader has had the chance to test the Commons (as leader of the largest party, and who could put together a sufficiently large confidence base to win a vote). If the Tory election is contested - and hence would take longer than 14 days - or if May didn't resign, then Corbyn would then be invited to form a government. Similarly, if the new Tory leader failed to win a vote, Corbyn would then go to the Palace.

    What happens then is interesting. Chances are that Corbyn too would fail to win a VoC, leading to an election. The question is whether the incumbent PM - Corbyn - would continue in office for the election campaign despite having failed to gain the support of the Commons, or whether he too would be obliged to resign, in which case we could be looking at a technocratic government for the election period. While that is wholly outside recent British political experience, it could be the least-controversial option. I still have a 250/1 betting slip on Gus O'Donnell as next PM for that very reason (although other neutral candidates would probably now be ahead of him as options).

    I don't think the British state would allow someone to become Prime Minister (and thus acquire executive authority) who demonstrably wouldn't have the confidence of the present legislature. So Corbyn would only become PM in such circumstances if the (some?) Tories commit to abstain.

    The precedents have never involved someone becoming PM merely to prove that they can't - there has always been the expectation that they have the short-term confidence required.
    What think you of the idea that T.May would be directed by the Palace, prior to acceptance of her resignation, to permit parliamentary time for a vote or votes on pre-invitation motions for any PM candidate?

    Anyone who succeeded in a pre-invitation vote would then be invited to try and gain confidence by the Palace with a complete guarantee that Palace neutrality would not have been compromised.

    I'll have to dig out again the FTPA discussion that suggested this formulation.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Boris doesn’t comment on second referendum call.
    https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1060926776367595520?s=21
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1060927256829276161
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    FPT. Big_G_NorthWales wrote, inter alia
    Make sure you visit Llandudno.

    Recommendation noted. Must admit that on pn previous visits we’ve tended to remain on Anglesey
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Perhaps both male Johnsons are going for some exposure on I'm a celebrity?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1060927256829276161

    Some might say a Johnson stockpile is exactly what Westminster is...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pro_Rata said:

    What think you of the idea that T.May would be directed by the Palace, prior to acceptance of her resignation, to permit parliamentary time for a vote or votes on pre-invitation motions for any PM candidate?

    Anyone who succeeded in a pre-invitation vote would then be invited to try and gain confidence by the Palace with a complete guarantee that Palace neutrality would not have been compromised.

    I'll have to dig out again the FTPA discussion that suggested this formulation.

    I can see the merit, but I think soundings are more likely.
    justin124 said:

    In March 1974 there was no certainty that Harold Wilson could win a VOC.

    I think it was pretty implicit once Heath's negotiations with Thorpe had failed, wasn't it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    As Transport Minister he knows how bad no deal is and how bad being out of the single market & customs union is.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    OldKingCole said:

    FPT. Big_G_NorthWales wrote, inter alia
    Make sure you visit Llandudno.

    Recommendation noted. Must admit that on pn previous visits we’ve tended to remain on Anglesey

    You can see the Great and Little Ormes from Anglesey
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    I fear 2016 is fast going out of date. How many will follow?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    Wishful thinking my friend.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1060928925789048832?s=21
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Dreaming on. Corbyn offers to form government committed to a) withdrawing the Article 50 letter and b) holding an election in six months with Labour committed to Remain..

    What happens to May?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    As Transport Minister he knows how bad no deal is and how bad being out of the single market & customs union is.

    And he knows the importance of Dover - Calais unlike others !!!!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    What think you of the idea that T.May would be directed by the Palace, prior to acceptance of her resignation, to permit parliamentary time for a vote or votes on pre-invitation motions for any PM candidate?

    Anyone who succeeded in a pre-invitation vote would then be invited to try and gain confidence by the Palace with a complete guarantee that Palace neutrality would not have been compromised.

    I'll have to dig out again the FTPA discussion that suggested this formulation.

    I can see the merit, but I think soundings are more likely.
    justin124 said:

    In March 1974 there was no certainty that Harold Wilson could win a VOC.

    I think it was pretty implicit once Heath's negotiations with Thorpe had failed, wasn't it?
    Not really . There was no certainty when he took office that the Tories would abstain - indeed the Liberals did vote against.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It seems to me that the ball is now in the EU's court.

    Do they have a "big, open and comprehensive offer" up their sleeve?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    FPT:

    Jo Johnson is 190 on BF.

    I took a nibble at few seconds ago at 310.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    Maybe or needs a better strategy and a much longer time frame
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    williamglenn said:

    Allow me to restate my prediction that a second referendum will be announced before the parliamentary vote, not afterwards.

    Remain/Deal or Deal/No Deal (or something else)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Milibandesque in his analysis of the problems, but sadly milibandesque in his proposal of naff solutions, too.

    There is no problem that a second referendum definitely solves, because the result is unpredictable.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    justin124 said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    What think you of the idea that T.May would be directed by the Palace, prior to acceptance of her resignation, to permit parliamentary time for a vote or votes on pre-invitation motions for any PM candidate?

    Anyone who succeeded in a pre-invitation vote would then be invited to try and gain confidence by the Palace with a complete guarantee that Palace neutrality would not have been compromised.

    I'll have to dig out again the FTPA discussion that suggested this formulation.

    I can see the merit, but I think soundings are more likely.
    justin124 said:

    In March 1974 there was no certainty that Harold Wilson could win a VOC.

    I think it was pretty implicit once Heath's negotiations with Thorpe had failed, wasn't it?
    Not really . There was no certainty when he took office that the Tories would abstain - indeed the Liberals did vote against.
    As I recall it, Heath and the Tories were pretty shell-shocked.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Miranda Green on that 2nd referendum. I think she's right:
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1060929012753674240
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    Almost.

    I think the last couple of years have demonstrated that you have to put the Irish border on the table if you want a full escape. Had the Tories shocked everyone by saying "We're definitely leaving the SM/CU and if we can do it without a hard Irish border all the better" then we would be in a different place. One small mercy that they haven't ever gone there, even though it's done nothing but box them in throughout.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    OldKingCole said:

    Dreaming on. Corbyn offers to form government committed to a) withdrawing the Article 50 letter and b) holding an election in six months with Labour committed to Remain..

    What happens to May?

    Throw in a commitment to PR in that election, and you may be onto something there.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2018
    Tissue_Price said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It seems to me that the ball is now in the EU's court.

    Do they have a "big, open and comprehensive offer" up their sleeve?
    I think they need to decide whether they want to make it possible and attractive for us to Remain, or whether they want a looser-than-Chequers arrangement (and by their own argument, a hard Irish border, although personally I think that's tosh). If they choose to do nothing, and the UK is incapable of doing anything because of the parliamentary arithmetic which voters in their infinite wisdom landed us with, then the default is a no-deal crash out.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    MarqueeMark said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1060927256829276161

    Some might say a Johnson stockpile is exactly what Westminster is...
    We need a collective noun for Johnsons, how about "a foolishness" or maybe "an ego"?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    With respect that is penned by a brexiteer who is watching the end days of brexit. The media are all over it, and as a remain media they are going to play this for all it is worth
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    Tissue_Price said:

    Miranda Green on that 2nd referendum. I think she's right:
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1060929012753674240

    Not sure she can be so sure.

    It will be utter mayhem though, that's for sure.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    If we have a second referendum on the basis it has been demonstrably proven that we can never in practice leave, then I suspect a Leave landslide will follow.

    That might result in a proper job being done by whoever the next poor sod to become PM happens to be.

    What an unholy mess this all is...

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Herdson, 'obliged' to resign?

    What if he simply refused?

    One of the reasons the Crown retains a reserve power to appoint and sack PMs is precisely in order to be able to deal with a PM who refused to go when their time was up. A minister's seals of office become redundant as soon as new ones are issued to someone else.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    OldKingCole said:

    Dreaming on. Corbyn offers to form government committed to a) withdrawing the Article 50 letter and b) holding an election in six months with Labour committed to Remain..

    What happens to May?

    Nothing unless she loses a vnoc in the HOC
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    Well, that it’s impossible to get out without a good idea of what “out” means, and without doing the necessary work to prepare for the disruption of changing the terms under which your trade and supply chains work. Sadly for the Brexiteers, two years of in-fighting and posturing doesn’t suffice.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    anothernick said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1060927256829276161

    Some might say a Johnson stockpile is exactly what Westminster is...
    We need a collective noun for Johnsons, how about "a foolishness" or maybe "an ego"?
    An entitlement.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    anothernick said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1060927256829276161

    Some might say a Johnson stockpile is exactly what Westminster is...
    We need a collective noun for Johnsons, how about "a foolishness" or maybe "an ego"?
    a jockstrap
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    Well, that it’s impossible to get out without a good idea of what “out” means, and without doing the necessary work to prepare for the disruption of changing the terms under which your trade and supply chains work. Sadly for the Brexiteers, two years of in-fighting and posturing doesn’t suffice.
    The problem is that you only have two years to do it in, which is not enough, and is designed not to be enough.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    It’s demonstrated its not worth doing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    Which will enrage the majority in the largest single vote for anything this country has ever seen.

    An anti-establishment party at the next election will cause devastation amongst the ranks of those who went along with trying to frustrate the will of the people.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Bob__Sykes said:

    If we have a second referendum on the basis it has been demonstrably proven that we can never in practice leave, then I suspect a Leave landslide will follow.

    That might result in a proper job being done by whoever the next poor sod to become PM happens to be.

    What an unholy mess this all is...

    I would imagine your last sentence will meet with unanimous approval
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    On topic, it's a very good letter from JoJo and while I don't agree with his reasoning, there is certainly a consistent logic to it.

    I still feel that it's necessary for democracy to implement the June 2016 vote, particularly when current opinion remains as close as it is: there has been no decisive shift. It's also obvious that a second vote would have no better debate than the first one.

    There are also other options - EEA, most notably - which could still square most circles in the game, without the need for a potentially extremely damaging second vote which would likely result in either a No Deal departure, with all the pain involved, or a Remain, where millions feel like their vote was betrayed and worthless.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Bob__Sykes said:

    If we have a second referendum on the basis it has been demonstrably proven that we can never in practice leave, then I suspect a Leave landslide will follow.

    That might result in a proper job being done by whoever the next poor sod to become PM happens to be.

    What an unholy mess this all is...

    Hang on. If we can never Leave, what use will a Leave landslide be? Of course we can Leave. Just not on our terms.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    not_on_fire said:

    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    It’s demonstrated its not worth doing.
    Remain means being stuck in a Union which most of us don't like and which will continue taking us in a direction (moaning about it) that most of us don't want to be taken in.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Sean_F said:

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    Well, that it’s impossible to get out without a good idea of what “out” means, and without doing the necessary work to prepare for the disruption of changing the terms under which your trade and supply chains work. Sadly for the Brexiteers, two years of in-fighting and posturing doesn’t suffice.
    The problem is that you only have two years to do it in, which is not enough, and is designed not to be enough.
    Oh, I thought Leave said it would be all wrapped up in a matter of weeks.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    not_on_fire said:

    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    It’s demonstrated its not worth doing.
    Person who doesn't want something to happen rejoices at the idea of not happening, shocker.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    With respect that is penned by a brexiteer who is watching the end days of brexit. The media are all over it, and as a remain media they are going to play this for all it is worth
    I thought much of the media was pro- Brexit, although the Mail may have switched sides.

    Incidentally I told my wife about JJ and she said a) I didn’t know Boris had a brother and after I confirmed he had b) I didn’t know he was in the Government.
    And she listens to me rambling on!
    Just saying.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    dixiedean said:

    anothernick said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1060927256829276161

    Some might say a Johnson stockpile is exactly what Westminster is...
    We need a collective noun for Johnsons, how about "a foolishness" or maybe "an ego"?
    An entitlement.
    A Pop?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Tissue_Price said:

    Miranda Green on that 2nd referendum. I think she's right:
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1060929012753674240

    I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    With respect that is penned by a brexiteer who is watching the end days of brexit. The media are all over it, and as a remain media they are going to play this for all it is worth
    I thought much of the media was pro- Brexit, although the Mail may have switched sides.

    Incidentally I told my wife about JJ and she said a) I didn’t know Boris had a brother and after I confirmed he had b) I didn’t know he was in the Government.
    And she listens to me rambling on!
    Just saying.
    The Mail are pro-Brexit, but not pro an ERG Brexit.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    justin124 said:

    In March 1974 there was no certainty that Harold Wilson could win a VOC.

    I think it was pretty implicit once Heath's negotiations with Thorpe had failed, wasn't it?

    Not entirely. Wilson considered going back to the country almost immediately but wasn't sure whether the Palace would agree to the request.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    MikeSmithson said:

    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    Wishful thinking my friend.
    It's not though is it? How many members of the public are thinking, "oh you know what, the brother of Boris has resigned, I'll change my mind". Ultimately the problem the people's vote face is they need to convince leave MPs and leave voters rather than their own side.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Pro_Rata said:

    What think you of the idea that T.May would be directed by the Palace, prior to acceptance of her resignation, to permit parliamentary time for a vote or votes on pre-invitation motions for any PM candidate?

    Anyone who succeeded in a pre-invitation vote would then be invited to try and gain confidence by the Palace with a complete guarantee that Palace neutrality would not have been compromised.

    I'll have to dig out again the FTPA discussion that suggested this formulation.

    While I think it's entirely possible that Her Majesty would invite Jeremy Corbyn to the Palace to ask whether he had the confidence of the House, I cannot imagine he would be able to answer in the affirmative.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    Which will enrage the majority in the largest single vote for anything this country has ever seen.
    .
    Many of whom will be enraged at having been lied to by the likes of Johnson Maximus, Gove, Farage and Liar Fox.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    MikeSmithson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Miranda Green on that 2nd referendum. I think she's right:
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1060929012753674240

    I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
    Eh? Project fear failed last time. It was the Remain strategy....

    Without the Govt. backing Remain, it loses at best 60/40, with the Govt. backing Remain, there isn't a Tory party left.

    No Tory PM is going to call one.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It seems to me that the ball is now in the EU's court.

    Do they have a "big, open and comprehensive offer" up their sleeve?
    I think they need to decide whether they want to make it possible and attractive for us to Remain, or whether they want a looser-than-Chequers arrangement (and by their own argument, a hard Irish border, although personally I think that's tosh). If they choose to do nothing, and the UK is incapable of doing anything because of the parliamentary arithmetic which voters in their infinite wisdom landed us with, then the default is a no-deal crash out.
    ... which nobody wants. So hand it back to the people to decide.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.

    It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
    If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
    Which will enrage the majority in the largest single vote for anything this country has ever seen.

    An anti-establishment party at the next election will cause devastation amongst the ranks of those who went along with trying to frustrate the will of the people.
    Welcome to the Hotel Califormia ... T
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    anothernick said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1060927256829276161

    Some might say a Johnson stockpile is exactly what Westminster is...
    We need a collective noun for Johnsons, how about "a foolishness" or maybe "an ego"?
    An entitlement.
    A Pop?
    An engorgement of Johnsons?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Sean_F said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    With respect that is penned by a brexiteer who is watching the end days of brexit. The media are all over it, and as a remain media they are going to play this for all it is worth
    I thought much of the media was pro- Brexit, although the Mail may have switched sides.

    Incidentally I told my wife about JJ and she said a) I didn’t know Boris had a brother and after I confirmed he had b) I didn’t know he was in the Government.
    And she listens to me rambling on!
    Just saying.
    The Mail are pro-Brexit, but not pro an ERG Brexit.
    OK, they’re in the process. They were ERG, weren’t they?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    With respect that is penned by a brexiteer who is watching the end days of brexit. The media are all over it, and as a remain media they are going to play this for all it is worth
    I thought much of the media was pro- Brexit, although the Mail may have switched sides.

    Incidentally I told my wife about JJ and she said a) I didn’t know Boris had a brother and after I confirmed he had b) I didn’t know he was in the Government.
    And she listens to me rambling on!
    Just saying.
    I do envy you, my good lady openly admits not to listening to my ramblings
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    MikeSmithson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Miranda Green on that 2nd referendum. I think she's right:
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1060929012753674240

    I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
    I think it would depend a lot on what the actual question was.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement Yes or No? That leaves open what would happen if the vote was No.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement or Remain? If so, Remain on what terms?

    May's Withdrawal Agreement, or crash out without a deal?

    Or a multiple choice?

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Sean_F said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    With respect that is penned by a brexiteer who is watching the end days of brexit. The media are all over it, and as a remain media they are going to play this for all it is worth
    I thought much of the media was pro- Brexit, although the Mail may have switched sides.

    Incidentally I told my wife about JJ and she said a) I didn’t know Boris had a brother and after I confirmed he had b) I didn’t know he was in the Government.
    And she listens to me rambling on!
    Just saying.
    The Mail are pro-Brexit, but not pro an ERG Brexit.
    I had considered the Mail switching sides, but clearly they are not looking favourably upon Jo Johnson here. It's a sign that Greig is pro Tory remaining in power above all else and is supporting the status quo, so probably in favour of May's deal rather than no deal or a 2nd ref.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Bob__Sykes said:

    If we have a second referendum on the basis it has been demonstrably proven that we can never in practice leave, then I suspect a Leave landslide will follow.

    That might result in a proper job being done by whoever the next poor sod to become PM happens to be.

    What an unholy mess this all is...

    Well, rather than "we can never in practice leave", it'd be fairer to say that "having built prosperity upon the benefits that being in the Single Market and EU has brought us, we can't leave without it costing some of that prosperity"

    I'll admit it's not as catchy.

    It's like "we can never in practice leave a high-paying job."
    We can, but we'll lose the salary. Your mate who promised you'd earn just as much putting videos on YouTube has turned out to be full of shit, your boss has asked you, "Look, are you sure you want to leave? We're holding your post a little longer", and you've got to decide if you want to leave strongly enough that you don't mind a diet of bread and rice for quite a while.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412
    I don't think this comment works the way Hugh thinks it does

    https://twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/1060932499604467714

    If the person who created the referendum things the aftermath was so badly managed that the referendum needs to be rerun - at least he's being honest...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    A Florida psychologist who has compared homosexuality to obsessive-compulsive disorder and claimed that he could change clients’ sexual orientation through therapy was found soliciting “hookups” on gay dating apps, according to LGBTQ nonprofit Truth Wins Out.

    Norman Goldwasser, clinical director of Horizon Psychological Services in Miami Beach, Florida, allegedly used the screen name “hotnhairy72” to meet other men on Manhunt and Gay Bear Nation. The Manhunt profile, which has since been deleted, includes several nude images that appear to be of Goldwasser and lists a number of interests, including “dating,” “kissing,” “married men,” “massage” and a series of more explicit activities, according to screenshots provided to NBC News by Truth Wins Out.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/ex-gay-therapist-allegedly-found-soliciting-hookups-gay-dating-apps-n931726
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    With respect that is penned by a brexiteer who is watching the end days of brexit. The media are all over it, and as a remain media they are going to play this for all it is worth
    I thought much of the media was pro- Brexit, although the Mail may have switched sides.

    Incidentally I told my wife about JJ and she said a) I didn’t know Boris had a brother and after I confirmed he had b) I didn’t know he was in the Government.
    And she listens to me rambling on!
    Just saying.
    The Mail are pro-Brexit, but not pro an ERG Brexit.
    OK, they’re in the process. They were ERG, weren’t they?
    Fairly much apart from the mail on sunday but now are pro TM and anti ERG
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    MikeSmithson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Miranda Green on that 2nd referendum. I think she's right:
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1060929012753674240

    I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
    The only certainty is that a very large number of people will feel they have been robbed of Brexit by an Establishment determined from day one that they were never going to implement it.

    Brexit ain't going away as a politicial phenomenon att the heart of UK politics.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    logical_song said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It seems to me that the ball is now in the EU's court.

    Do they have a "big, open and comprehensive offer" up their sleeve?
    I think they need to decide whether they want to make it possible and attractive for us to Remain, or whether they want a looser-than-Chequers arrangement (and by their own argument, a hard Irish border, although personally I think that's tosh). If they choose to do nothing, and the UK is incapable of doing anything because of the parliamentary arithmetic which voters in their infinite wisdom landed us with, then the default is a no-deal crash out.
    ... which nobody wants. So hand it back to the people to decide.
    But the people can't decide unless the government can offer two clear options (or I suppose conceivably more). And the government can't offer two, or even one, clear offer without negotiation with the EU.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A Florida psychologist who has compared homosexuality to obsessive-compulsive disorder and claimed that he could change clients’ sexual orientation through therapy was found soliciting “hookups” on gay dating apps, according to LGBTQ nonprofit Truth Wins Out.

    Norman Goldwasser, clinical director of Horizon Psychological Services in Miami Beach, Florida, allegedly used the screen name “hotnhairy72” to meet other men on Manhunt and Gay Bear Nation. The Manhunt profile, which has since been deleted, includes several nude images that appear to be of Goldwasser and lists a number of interests, including “dating,” “kissing,” “married men,” “massage” and a series of more explicit activities, according to screenshots provided to NBC News by Truth Wins Out.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/ex-gay-therapist-allegedly-found-soliciting-hookups-gay-dating-apps-n931726

    Carrying out research, obv.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    If we have a second referendum on the basis it has been demonstrably proven that we can never in practice leave, then I suspect a Leave landslide will follow.

    That might result in a proper job being done by whoever the next poor sod to become PM happens to be.

    What an unholy mess this all is...

    Well, rather than "we can never in practice leave", it'd be fairer to say that "having built prosperity upon the benefits that being in the Single Market and EU has brought us, we can't leave without it costing some of that prosperity"

    I'll admit it's not as catchy.

    It's like "we can never in practice leave a high-paying job."
    We can, but we'll lose the salary. Your mate who promised you'd earn just as much putting videos on YouTube has turned out to be full of shit, your boss has asked you, "Look, are you sure you want to leave? We're holding your post a little longer", and you've got to decide if you want to leave strongly enough that you don't mind a diet of bread and rice for quite a while.
    It's more that in their wisdom, our political leaders have given foreign governments the ability to shut down a substantial part of our economy in the event of there being no deal. That gives them immense bargaining power.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    eek said:

    I don't think this comment works the way Hugh thinks it does

    https://twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/1060932499604467714

    If the person who created the referendum things the aftermath was so badly managed that the referendum needs to be rerun - at least he's being honest...

    If he was being honest, he would leave politics entirely.... He's not up to the job.

    But then, if you put vegans in charge of making the meat and potato pies.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    https://twitter.com/michaellcrick/status/1060933929396568067?s=21
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2018
    We could save a lot of money by restricting the referendum franchise to the Johnson family.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Sean_F said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Miranda Green on that 2nd referendum. I think she's right:
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1060929012753674240

    I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
    I think it would depend a lot on what the actual question was.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement Yes or No? That leaves open what would happen if the vote was No.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement or Remain? If so, Remain on what terms?

    May's Withdrawal Agreement, or crash out without a deal?

    Or a multiple choice?

    Notwithstanding that, as of now, no such deal exists.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2018
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We could save a lot of money by restricting the referendum franchise to the Johnson family.

    What do you do when multiple recounts leave it at 1:1?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Brom said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    Wishful thinking my friend.
    It's not though is it? How many members of the public are thinking, "oh you know what, the brother of Boris has resigned, I'll change my mind". Ultimately the problem the people's vote face is they need to convince leave MPs and leave voters rather than their own side.
    There is a large majority of mps for the second referendum. Upwards of 200 conservative, 200 plus labour, all the SNP and Plaid. The only obstruction is how they put it into effect
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Miranda Green on that 2nd referendum. I think she's right:
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1060929012753674240

    I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
    I think it would depend a lot on what the actual question was.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement Yes or No? That leaves open what would happen if the vote was No.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement or Remain? If so, Remain on what terms?

    May's Withdrawal Agreement, or crash out without a deal?

    Or a multiple choice?

    Notwithstanding that, as of now, no such deal exists.
    Jo Johnson seems to think that it is imminent.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A Florida psychologist who has compared homosexuality to obsessive-compulsive disorder and claimed that he could change clients’ sexual orientation through therapy was found soliciting “hookups” on gay dating apps, according to LGBTQ nonprofit Truth Wins Out.

    Norman Goldwasser, clinical director of Horizon Psychological Services in Miami Beach, Florida, allegedly used the screen name “hotnhairy72” to meet other men on Manhunt and Gay Bear Nation. The Manhunt profile, which has since been deleted, includes several nude images that appear to be of Goldwasser and lists a number of interests, including “dating,” “kissing,” “married men,” “massage” and a series of more explicit activities, according to screenshots provided to NBC News by Truth Wins Out.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/ex-gay-therapist-allegedly-found-soliciting-hookups-gay-dating-apps-n931726

    I honestly don’t think any homophobe is actually straight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    This may not age well:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1060934214877622272
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Miranda Green on that 2nd referendum. I think she's right:
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1060929012753674240

    I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
    I think it would depend a lot on what the actual question was.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement Yes or No? That leaves open what would happen if the vote was No.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement or Remain? If so, Remain on what terms?

    May's Withdrawal Agreement, or crash out without a deal?

    Or a multiple choice?

    Notwithstanding that, as of now, no such deal exists.
    Strikes me that, as of now, nothing rational exists, Brexit discussions-wise.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Brom said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    Wishful thinking my friend.
    It's not though is it? How many members of the public are thinking, "oh you know what, the brother of Boris has resigned, I'll change my mind". Ultimately the problem the people's vote face is they need to convince leave MPs and leave voters rather than their own side.
    There is a large majority of mps for the second referendum. Upwards of 200 conservative, 200 plus labour, all the SNP and Plaid. The only obstruction is how they put it into effect
    200+ Conservatives?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    MarqueeMark said:

    eek said:

    I don't think this comment works the way Hugh thinks it does

    https://twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/1060932499604467714

    If the person who created the referendum things the aftermath was so badly managed that the referendum needs to be rerun - at least he's being honest...

    If he was being honest, he would leave politics entirely.... He's not up to the job.

    But then, if you put vegans in charge of making the meat and potato pies.....
    If he really cared he would stand down and force a by-election. Didn't his constituency vote leave to I believe? I doubt his actions will sit well in Orpington.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Anorak said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We could save a lot of money by restricting the referendum franchise to the Johnson family.

    What do you do when multiple recounts leave it at 1:1?
    Rachel gets the casting vote?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    OldKingCole said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Miranda Green on that 2nd referendum. I think she's right:
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1060929012753674240

    I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
    I think it would depend a lot on what the actual question was.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement Yes or No? That leaves open what would happen if the vote was No.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement or Remain? If so, Remain on what terms?

    May's Withdrawal Agreement, or crash out without a deal?

    Or a multiple choice?

    Notwithstanding that, as of now, no such deal exists.
    Strikes me that, as of now, nothing rational exists, Brexit discussions-wise.
    Indeed. Stanley Johnson talking on the radio about a vote in Parliament on Chequers deal as if it still exists!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Whilst this is dramatic, I don't think it quite matches when Gove annihilated Boris' leadership bid.

    Mr. Borough, hmm. I suspect Jo Johnson will either be in the top few or absolutely nowhere come the next leadership election. The membership is pretty sceptical, but it depends who he might theoretically face. Long odds, mind.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    OldKingCole said:

    justin124 said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    What think you of the idea that T.May would be directed by the Palace, prior to acceptance of her resignation, to permit parliamentary time for a vote or votes on pre-invitation motions for any PM candidate?

    Anyone who succeeded in a pre-invitation vote would then be invited to try and gain confidence by the Palace with a complete guarantee that Palace neutrality would not have been compromised.

    I'll have to dig out again the FTPA discussion that suggested this formulation.

    I can see the merit, but I think soundings are more likely.
    justin124 said:

    In March 1974 there was no certainty that Harold Wilson could win a VOC.

    I think it was pretty implicit once Heath's negotiations with Thorpe had failed, wasn't it?
    Not really . There was no certainty when he took office that the Tories would abstain - indeed the Liberals did vote against.
    As I recall it, Heath and the Tories were pretty shell-shocked.
    I believe that Wilson received an assurance from the Palace that in the event of his Queen's Speech being defeated he would have been granted a further Dissolution.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Want a giggle.

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1052267923795038213?s=21
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2018
    Blimey, lot of panic amongst the more febrile leavers on here. Be a good time for the EU to drop a nice fat carrot (of approved straightness and colour).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    edited November 2018
    Inb a little light relief the BBC notes an UEA study which says some regions of Essex and Suffolk are suitable for high quality, indeed Champagne-type wine production and asks:

    Could we one day see these brands on our supermarket shelves?
    Brutlingsea
    Moet & Clacton
    Bolly-riccay
    Cava Island
    Chugwell
    Proseccolchester

    See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-46153438
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    My views on Brexit.

    - Frustrated. I think Theresa May has been an awful, awful leader
    - I now support another vote because otherwise we will end up with a shit deal
    - If Remain wins I can put up with the sneering and gloating from the Remainers and the EU, and even roll my eyes when they make legislation banning another referendum for 10 million years, and bring in a new law that only allows people with university degrees and EU flag stickers on their car windows to vote
    - I still think Leave would win the referendum even if every newspaper, political party, cab driver and social media outlet was in Remain's camp.

    But, to be honest, I've given up giving a fuck. Somebody (SeanT was it?) once wrote that Theresa May's tactic is to stupefyingly bore the general public into suicidal apathy through a relentlessly uncurious, uninspiring and dreary style of governing.

    It's worked with me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    edited November 2018
    In the end cui bono?

    Regardless of the outcome (and assuming a question could be agreed) a second referendum is not going to make the losers of it any happier.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Sean_F said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Brom said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Brom said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!

    Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!

    The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
    Wishful thinking my friend.
    It's not though is it? How many members of the public are thinking, "oh you know what, the brother of Boris has resigned, I'll change my mind". Ultimately the problem the people's vote face is they need to convince leave MPs and leave voters rather than their own side.
    There is a large majority of mps for the second referendum. Upwards of 200 conservative, 200 plus labour, all the SNP and Plaid. The only obstruction is how they put it into effect
    200+ Conservatives?
    Approx 100 want to leave, the rest will not want to prejeudice business or the union and the movement is all going one way
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    Sean_F said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Miranda Green on that 2nd referendum. I think she's right:
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1060929012753674240

    I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
    I think it would depend a lot on what the actual question was.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement Yes or No? That leaves open what would happen if the vote was No.

    May's Withdrawal Agreement or Remain? If so, Remain on what terms?

    May's Withdrawal Agreement, or crash out without a deal?

    Or a multiple choice?

    Johnson seems to be advocating a 3-option, 2-stage vote. The first question on Remain / Leave, and the second on if the UK is to leave, whether with the deal or without it.

    I think in practice, I think this would be a very difficult debate to have in public, and there'd still be a great deal of projection and speculation as to what each outcome would 'mean' for incomes, unemployment, growth, as well as a re-run of Leave's Project Fear about Turkish migrants and the rest. I'm far from convinced that there'd the choice made would be any better informed than last time.
This discussion has been closed.