I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
Yes I think that's right. If there is a second referendum - and it's looking more and more likely - people will look back at their vote in 2016 and ask themselves if that was a good decision. And many people will conclude that it wasn't - leaving is actually much harder than it seemed and, far from being a bed of roses it will actually be pretty hard and is certain to result in some economic and political cost to the UK. This will lead people to switch from leave to remain. The idea that voters will double down on the pain and insist on leaving come what may is a fallacy driven by the same kind of obsession with the evils of the EU that led to the referendum in the first place.
Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
Agreed. I think one of the flaws in this site is so many PBers are so susceptible to kneejerk reactions because they read every development going and are detached from the newsfeeds of averages Joe Public. Someone in the previous thread suggested this particular event pointed towards a second referendum being near. With the government so close to securing a Brexit deal and the public probably not even aware Boris has an MP brother, to think this event will have any impact on the current trajectory is incredibly far fetched - not to mention the fact Jo Johnson was very much a vocal remainer!
The only deluded person here appears to be Jo Johnson for his political suicide and his arrogance to think his decision will sway anyone outside Westminster.
Wishful thinking my friend.
It's not though is it? How many members of the public are thinking, "oh you know what, the brother of Boris has resigned, I'll change my mind". Ultimately the problem the people's vote face is they need to convince leave MPs and leave voters rather than their own side.
There is a large majority of mps for the second referendum. Upwards of 200 conservative, 200 plus labour, all the SNP and Plaid. The only obstruction is how they put it into effect
200+ Conservatives?
Approx 100 want to leave, the rest will not want to prejeudice business or the union and the movement is all going one way
I think I can safely say that there are not 200 + Conservatives who are going to alienate their constituents and party members by supporting a second referendum.
It seems to me that the ball is now in the EU's court.
Do they have a "big, open and comprehensive offer" up their sleeve?
I think they need to decide whether they want to make it possible and attractive for us to Remain, or whether they want a looser-than-Chequers arrangement (and by their own argument, a hard Irish border, although personally I think that's tosh). If they choose to do nothing, and the UK is incapable of doing anything because of the parliamentary arithmetic which voters in their infinite wisdom landed us with, then the default is a no-deal crash out.
... which nobody wants. So hand it back to the people to decide.
Actually, about 35% want to crash out with no deal, going by recent polling. There is a very good chance that in an EURef2, No Deal could win: it is an easy and simple solution and hence a much more attractive sale than a second-rate deal or propping up jean-Claude Juncker.
What think you of the idea that T.May would be directed by the Palace, prior to acceptance of her resignation, to permit parliamentary time for a vote or votes on pre-invitation motions for any PM candidate?
Anyone who succeeded in a pre-invitation vote would then be invited to try and gain confidence by the Palace with a complete guarantee that Palace neutrality would not have been compromised.
I'll have to dig out again the FTPA discussion that suggested this formulation.
While I think it's entirely possible that Her Majesty would invite Jeremy Corbyn to the Palace to ask whether he had the confidence of the House, I cannot imagine he would be able to answer in the affirmative.
Recent history has proved that his claimed honesty is, er, a lie. I’m sure that he’d be happy, in the circumstances, to continue down that road.
If the person who created the referendum things the aftermath was so badly managed that the referendum needs to be rerun - at least he's being honest...
If he was being honest, he would leave politics entirely.... He's not up to the job.
But then, if you put vegans in charge of making the meat and potato pies.....
If he really cared he would stand down and force a by-election. Didn't his constituency vote leave to I believe? I doubt his actions will sit well in Orpington.
In those circumstances you should be calling for all the 20 or so conservative mps already supported a second referendum
Blimey, lot of panic amongst the more febrile leavers on here. Be a good time for the EU to drop a nice fat carrot (of approved straightness and colour).
I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
Yes I think that's right. If there is a second referendum - and it's looking more and more likely - people will look back at their vote in 2016 and ask themselves if that was a good decision. And many people will conclude that it wasn't - leaving is actually much harder than it seemed and, far from being a bed of roses it will actually be pretty hard and is certain to result in some economic and political cost to the UK. This will lead people to switch from leave to remain. The idea that voters will double down on the pain and insist on leaving come what may is a fallacy driven by the same kind of obsession with the evils of the EU that led to the referendum in the first place.
Very few people have changed their minds, although new voters could tip the balance to Remain.
I'd anticipate that (depending on the choice we were given) the Leave argument would be along the lines of:-
1. What part of Leave don't they understand? 2. The establishment have deliberately made a mess of things in order to keep us in the EU.
What think you of the idea that T.May would be directed by the Palace, prior to acceptance of her resignation, to permit parliamentary time for a vote or votes on pre-invitation motions for any PM candidate?
Anyone who succeeded in a pre-invitation vote would then be invited to try and gain confidence by the Palace with a complete guarantee that Palace neutrality would not have been compromised.
I'll have to dig out again the FTPA discussion that suggested this formulation.
While I think it's entirely possible that Her Majesty would invite Jeremy Corbyn to the Palace to ask whether he had the confidence of the House, I cannot imagine he would be able to answer in the affirmative.
Nor could he answer in the negative because such confidence had yet to be sought. It is not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility - given the unpredictability of events here - that Corbyn could put together a Rainbow majority aided by the abstention of the DUP and miscellaneous Tories.
Inb a little light relief the BBC notes an UEA study which says some regions of Essex and Suffolk are suitable for high quality, indeed Champagne-type wine production and asks:
Could we one day see these brands on our supermarket shelves? Brutlingsea Moet & Clacton Bolly-riccay Cava Island Chugwell Proseccolchester
Isn’t the sparkling wine produced in Kent and Sussex already quite highly regarded? Here in New York the products of our local wineries are almost universally undrinkable plonk, except for the champagnes[1] which aren’t bad. I guess the méthode champenoise is pretty good at making second-rate wine drinkable.
I think she's wrong. Project fear will be a lot harder.It will be just like Trump in the Midterms. After two years of it people are fed up and want some certainty back.
But Trump in the midterms did fine (on a par with the midterms of most first term Presidents) and assuming he survives the Russia stuff it appears he's on a trajectory to win a second term?
I dont think it will go that way, but certainly there will be no complacency. I think the national mood has changed. Many folk are sick of it and want to forget it, and never mention it again.
- Frustrated. I think Theresa May has been an awful, awful leader - I now support another vote because otherwise we will end up with a shit deal - If Remain wins I can put up with the sneering and gloating from the Remainers and the EU, and even roll my eyes when they make legislation banning another referendum for 10 million years, and bring in a new law that only allows people with university degrees and EU flag stickers on their car windows to vote - I still think Leave would win the referendum even if every newspaper, political party, cab driver and social media outlet was in Remain's camp.
But, to be honest, I've given up giving a fuck. Somebody (SeanT was it?) once wrote that Theresa May's tactic is to stupefyingly bore the general public into suicidal apathy through a relentlessly uncurious, uninspiring and dreary style of governing.
It's worked with me.
I think the point I take from that is that it's going to be difficult to motivate the usual non-voters who turned out to win it last time.
I don't thing the 'fear of foreigners' is as resonant now the Syrian migrant crisis has passed, and without that the cutting edge of the Leave campaign is much-blunted.
- Frustrated. I think Theresa May has been an awful, awful leader - I now support another vote because otherwise we will end up with a shit deal - If Remain wins I can put up with the sneering and gloating from the Remainers and the EU, and even roll my eyes when they make legislation banning another referendum for 10 million years, and bring in a new law that only allows people with university degrees and EU flag stickers on their car windows to vote - I still think Leave would win the referendum even if every newspaper, political party, cab driver and social media outlet was in Remain's camp.
But, to be honest, I've given up giving a fuck. Somebody (SeanT was it?) once wrote that Theresa May's tactic is to stupefyingly bore the general public into suicidal apathy through a relentlessly uncurious, uninspiring and dreary style of governing.
It's worked with me.
I think the great mistake she made was the 'citizens of nowhere' speech. It simultaneously alienated remainers as defining Brexit as something designed to marginalise their values in favour of the 'winning' side, and raise Brexiteer expectations to a level she was never going to be able to deliver on thanks to the nature of negotiations (specifically designed to favour the EU over the leaving party), the contradictions between the various cases for leave, and the complete lack of understanding of their own project from many leading leavers. The result? She had to fudge and kick the can down the road each time reality intruded, while Brexiteers demanded more flesh and remainers became more convinced the whole thing was an ongoing disaster.
If she had soberly set out in a speech why leaving was going to be a much longer and complicated process than leavers wanted, and explained that she wanted to unite the country round a departure that everyone but the zealots could live with, but that got us out without dicing with chaos, she might have fared much better.
I dont think it will go that way, but certainly there will be no complacency. I think the national mood has changed. Many folk are sick of it and want to forget it, and never mention it again.
People are sick of it alright. The trouble is half want it done and never mentioned again, and half want it stopped and never mentioned again.
Blimey, lot of panic amongst the more febrile leavers on here. Be a good time for the EU to drop a nice fat carrot (of approved straightness and colour).
Blimey, lot of panic amongst the more febrile leavers on here. Be a good time for the EU to drop a nice fat carrot (of approved straightness and colour).
I dont think it will go that way, but certainly there will be no complacency. I think the national mood has changed. Many folk are sick of it and want to forget it, and never mention it again.
People are sick of it alright. The trouble is half want it done and never mentioned again, and half want it stopped and never mentioned again.
This is why I'm not in favour of another referendum.
Best option is to Leave and between five and ten years we'll have worked out if Brexit is a success or disaster, if it is the latter, we'll rejoin, it'll have the added benefit of destroying the British Eurosceptic movement for a long time, if not ever.
As a leaver, I look forward to a second referendum.
It has been two and a half years and despite the fact that remain has doubled down again and again on project fear and campaigned relentlessly for two and a half years, the polls have barely shifted (54/46 now vs 52/48 on the eve of the referendum).
It will be a chance to stick it to the out of touch elite who think they have the right to ride roughshod over democracy, do as they say, ignore our opinions, and treat us as the serfs they think we are.
Didn't you hear us the first time? How about now?
That is certainly how a second referendum campaign will be fought, and it is for that reason I am certain it will win.
A Florida psychologist who has compared homosexuality to obsessive-compulsive disorder and claimed that he could change clients’ sexual orientation through therapy was found soliciting “hookups” on gay dating apps, according to LGBTQ nonprofit Truth Wins Out.
Norman Goldwasser, clinical director of Horizon Psychological Services in Miami Beach, Florida, allegedly used the screen name “hotnhairy72” to meet other men on Manhunt and Gay Bear Nation. The Manhunt profile, which has since been deleted, includes several nude images that appear to be of Goldwasser and lists a number of interests, including “dating,” “kissing,” “married men,” “massage” and a series of more explicit activities, according to screenshots provided to NBC News by Truth Wins Out.
I honestly don’t think any homophobe is actually straight.
There's probably a point that to be overly bothered and take an interest in what gay people are doing, you have to have some inclination yourself, especially now the general social stigma has gone. If you were a 100% red blooded heterosexual psychologist why would you bother looking into how you could 'cure' gay men?
Just as Theresa May thought she could see light at the end of the tunnel, part of it caved in. These things fluctuate almost on a daily basis, but tonight the good money is on her losing that vote.
A Florida psychologist who has compared homosexuality to obsessive-compulsive disorder and claimed that he could change clients’ sexual orientation through therapy was found soliciting “hookups” on gay dating apps, according to LGBTQ nonprofit Truth Wins Out.
Norman Goldwasser, clinical director of Horizon Psychological Services in Miami Beach, Florida, allegedly used the screen name “hotnhairy72” to meet other men on Manhunt and Gay Bear Nation. The Manhunt profile, which has since been deleted, includes several nude images that appear to be of Goldwasser and lists a number of interests, including “dating,” “kissing,” “married men,” “massage” and a series of more explicit activities, according to screenshots provided to NBC News by Truth Wins Out.
I honestly don’t think any homophobe is actually straight.
There's probably a point that to be overly bothered and take an interest in what gay people are doing, you have to have some inclination yourself, especially now the general social stigma has gone. If you were a 100% red blooded heterosexual psychologist why would you bother looking into how you could 'cure' gay men?
Blimey, lot of panic amongst the more febrile leavers on here. Be a good time for the EU to drop a nice fat carrot (of approved straightness and colour).
Carrots are generally orange.....
Well *somebody* doesn't shop in Waitrose. Pleb
Note use of “generally” and blame the Dutch.
Having had the misfortune to work for a Dutch company, then *always*. Very much of the Nigel Powers persuasion now.
- Frustrated. I think Theresa May has been an awful, awful leader - I now support another vote because otherwise we will end up with a shit deal - If Remain wins I can put up with the sneering and gloating from the Remainers and the EU, and even roll my eyes when they make legislation banning another referendum for 10 million years, and bring in a new law that only allows people with university degrees and EU flag stickers on their car windows to vote - I still think Leave would win the referendum even if every newspaper, political party, cab driver and social media outlet was in Remain's camp.
But, to be honest, I've given up giving a fuck. Somebody (SeanT was it?) once wrote that Theresa May's tactic is to stupefyingly bore the general public into suicidal apathy through a relentlessly uncurious, uninspiring and dreary style of governing.
It's worked with me.
I think the great mistake she made was the 'citizens of nowhere' speech. It simultaneously alienated remainers as defining Brexit as something designed to marginalise their values in favour of the 'winning' side, and raise Brexiteer expectations to a level she was never going to be able to deliver on thanks to the nature of negotiations (specifically designed to favour the EU over the leaving party), the contradictions between the various cases for leave, and the complete lack of understanding of their own project from many leading leavers. The result? She had to fudge and kick the can down the road each time reality intruded, while Brexiteers demanded more flesh and remainers became more convinced the whole thing was an ongoing disaster.
If she had soberly set out in a speech why leaving was going to be a much longer and complicated process than leavers wanted, and explained that she wanted to unite the country round a departure that everyone but the zealots could live with, but that got us out without dicing with chaos, she might have fared much better.
Exactly. But she decided that proving to the ERG that she was a born again Brexiteer was more important than trying to forge a national consensus on an achievable Brexit.
My nephew said on the weekend that the people voted to Leave, and what we're going to end up with will be us being in the state of "leaving" for the foreseeable future.
We won't have left. We're leaving now, we've been leaving for two-and-a-half years, and we'll keep on like this in some godawful transition period so we'll still be leaving ten years from now.
As a leaver, I look forward to a second referendum.
It has been two and a half years and despite the fact that remain has doubled down again and again on project fear and campaigned relentlessly for two and a half years, the polls have barely shifted (54/46 now vs 52/48 on the eve of the referendum).
It will be a chance to stick it to the out of touch elite who think they have the right to ride roughshod over democracy, do as they say, ignore our opinions, and treat us as the serfs they think we are.
Didn't you hear us the first time? How about now?
That is certainly how a second referendum campaign will be fought, and it is for that reason I am certain it will win.
No it's not possible that the riff-raff will defy their "better's" and vote to Leave again.
We'll all just meekly do what we're told by Blair, Heseltine and Campbell.
My nephew said on the weekend that the people voted to Leave, and what we're going to end up with will be us being in the state of "leaving" for the foreseeable future.
We won't have left. We're leaving now, we've been leaving for two-and-a-half years, and we'll keep on like this in some godawful transition period so we'll still be leaving ten years from now.
A Florida psychologist who has compared homosexuality to obsessive-compulsive disorder and claimed that he could change clients’ sexual orientation through therapy was found soliciting “hookups” on gay dating apps, according to LGBTQ nonprofit Truth Wins Out.
Norman Goldwasser, clinical director of Horizon Psychological Services in Miami Beach, Florida, allegedly used the screen name “hotnhairy72” to meet other men on Manhunt and Gay Bear Nation. The Manhunt profile, which has since been deleted, includes several nude images that appear to be of Goldwasser and lists a number of interests, including “dating,” “kissing,” “married men,” “massage” and a series of more explicit activities, according to screenshots provided to NBC News by Truth Wins Out.
I honestly don’t think any homophobe is actually straight.
There's probably a point that to be overly bothered and take an interest in what gay people are doing, you have to have some inclination yourself, especially now the general social stigma has gone. If you were a 100% red blooded heterosexual psychologist why would you bother looking into how you could 'cure' gay men?
Precisely.
Money. Some mad rich fundamentalist Christian will enable you to ‘study' in comfort for years.
Yes it makes a second vote more likely. Not only will the regulars not vote for May, it is clear not enough of the others will, let alone Labour. So to avoid no deal and a GE which would destroy them, only one option opens up.
Bizarre personal referendum stat: I've earned more money over the past two financial years than I've ever earned in my life. So have many of my colleagues.
We work in printing and it's been a very strange couple of years. All the economic news has been bad and all the predictions have been pessimistic, but we - like a lot of other printing companies - have been extremely busy.
Whether it's pure coincidence is anyone's guess, but I haven't earned like this since 2002-2003.
Bizarre personal referendum stat: I've earned more money over the past two financial years than I've ever earned in my life. So have many of my colleagues.
We work in printing and it's been a very strange couple of years. All the economic news has been bad and all the predictions have been pessimistic, but we - like a lot of other printing companies - have been extremely busy.
Whether it's pure coincidence is anyone's guess, but I haven't earned like this since 2002-2003.
Interesting - what sort of clients, if you don't mind me asking? Is it general stuff, or something specialised?
Bizarre personal referendum stat: I've earned more money over the past two financial years than I've ever earned in my life. So have many of my colleagues.
We work in printing and it's been a very strange couple of years. All the economic news has been bad and all the predictions have been pessimistic, but we - like a lot of other printing companies - have been extremely busy.
Whether it's pure coincidence is anyone's guess, but I haven't earned like this since 2002-2003.
Interesting - what sort of clients, if you don't mind me asking? Is it general stuff, or something specialised?
May's problem isn't that she can't take everyone with her - it's that she can't take anyone with her.
It's arguably not specifically her problem though. There's a hardline ERG version of Brexit that is coherent but even most of the Tory party know it's politically toxic because in the short to medium term it would be economically disastrous and it would long term require a transformation of society that most people really don't want and which doesn't address our national difficulties - and even then it's based on pretty shaky assumptions about the nature of world trade. Then there's a BINO or long term option which gets us out of a few things, keeps things broadly the same in its first stage, but doesn't appease the Brexit gods.
A Brexit that actually works and fulfils leavers' promises doesn't exist because their promises were either contradictory, false, ill-informed, or all three. May has had a good go at magicking one into existence, but she can't turn bullshit into gold.
You just need to read the witterings of someone like Andrea Jenkyns or look at how David Davis wears his ignorance with pride to see why it's gone wrong. If it was to succeed Brexit had to be a long, dull, intricate technical exercise that ignored blowhard claims - you're attempting to undo and redo 40 years of economic intergration. It's an incredibly complex task. Unfortunately on both sides of the house we have some of the most unserious and intellectually lacking politicians in our history.
May's problem isn't that she can't take everyone with her - it's that she can't take anyone with her.
It's arguably not specifically her problem though. There's a hardline ERG version of Brexit that is coherent but even most of the Tory party know it's politically toxic because in the short to medium term it would be economically disastrous and it would long term require a transformation of society that most people really don't want and which doesn't address our national difficulties - and even then it's based on pretty shaky assumptions about the nature of world trade. Then there's a BINO or long term option which gets us out of a few things, keeps things broadly the same in its first stage, but doesn't appease the Brexit gods.
A Brexit that actually works and fulfils leavers' promises doesn't exist because their promises were either contradictory, false, ill-informed, or all three. May has had a good go at magicking one into existence, but she can't turn bullshit into gold.
You just need to read the witterings of someone like Andrea Jenkyns or look at how David Davis wears his ignorance with pride to see why it's gone wrong. If it was to succeed Brexit had to be a long, dull, intricate technical exercise that ignored blowhard claims - you're attempting to undo and redo 40 years of economic intergration. It's an incredibly complex task. Unfortunately on both sides of the house we have some of the most unserious and intellectually lacking politicians in our history.
Bizarre personal referendum stat: I've earned more money over the past two financial years than I've ever earned in my life. So have many of my colleagues.
We work in printing and it's been a very strange couple of years. All the economic news has been bad and all the predictions have been pessimistic, but we - like a lot of other printing companies - have been extremely busy.
Whether it's pure coincidence is anyone's guess, but I haven't earned like this since 2002-2003.
Interesting - what sort of clients, if you don't mind me asking? Is it general stuff, or something specialised?
Bizarre personal referendum stat: I've earned more money over the past two financial years than I've ever earned in my life. So have many of my colleagues.
We work in printing and it's been a very strange couple of years. All the economic news has been bad and all the predictions have been pessimistic, but we - like a lot of other printing companies - have been extremely busy.
Whether it's pure coincidence is anyone's guess, but I haven't earned like this since 2002-2003.
Interesting - what sort of clients, if you don't mind me asking? Is it general stuff, or something specialised?
We are litho printing (catalogues, magazines etc) and us sales guys earn decent salaries but earn bigger on commission. I get 3% on everything I sell over £50k and the past few months I've been well north of £200k a month, as the business has had successive record months. We've had a very strong two years.
I wonder if it's the contraction of the printers in the market, the value of the pound (we've picked up work that's come back from Italy), the fact we (sometimes) do a very good job (!) ... who knows? But it's been buoyant.
By contrast, 2008-2010 was an extremely tough time.
ps - I'm no millionaire btw! I have nothing in the bank. Earn and spend!
Yes it makes a second vote more likely. Not only will the regulars not vote for May, it is clear not enough of the others will, let alone Labour. So to avoid no deal and a GE which would destroy them, only one option opens up.
Don't forget the other option which is to get rid of May...
I'll have to have a serious think about my vote if there is a second referendum. Am on the fence right now - head says remain....
For me it was always heart says Remain, Head says Leave - as if the EU lived up to the dream it might be worth it, but it doesn't and doesn't look like it will either.
However I'd probably vote remain second time around. It's not like Remaining would heal any divisions or anything, but it's increasingly not worth it, particularly as the hardest leavers are never going to be satisfied, and their search for purity is why we might not get any Brexit at all.
The next piece of this impossible jigsaw comes when the ECJ rules that Art 50 is not unilaterally revocable.
If they rule that it is (I personally don't think they will, but it wouldn't be a total shock if they did), I think that's when the feline gets placed squarely in the middle of the flying vermin.
My nephew said on the weekend that the people voted to Leave, and what we're going to end up with will be us being in the state of "leaving" for the foreseeable future.
We won't have left. We're leaving now, we've been leaving for two-and-a-half years, and we'll keep on like this in some godawful transition period so we'll still be leaving ten years from now.
Yes it makes a second vote more likely. Not only will the regulars not vote for May, it is clear not enough of the others will, let alone Labour. So to avoid no deal and a GE which would destroy them, only one option opens up.
Don't forget the other option which is to get rid of May...
Which would achieve what? If there was a parliamentary majority for a harder Brexit May would have gone down that route already, so either there's a majority for an even softer one, or we assume (not impossibly) that the inability to decide on anything in the Commons means no deal by accident.
Changing Tory leader doesn't seem like it achieves anything. May isn't some demonic entity who has possessed the parliamentary party against its will, she has pursued her course of action because no one would remove her, apparently because they know their own preferred options don't command sufficient support either.
I recommended May stand down ages ago and they at least try another option, but it's probably too late for that now as well. So it's time for Remainers and Hard Leavers to stop posturing and see if they really believe the public support them as they claim - have a second referendum, and make it binding.
No, it would not be easy to get even that passed. No, it would not make things any less divisive. But I am sick and tired of people insisting one side or the other is clearly what the public want, but too afraid to ask them - I wouldn't care at all if the MPs would do their jobs and agree something, anything, but since no option seems like it can pass, some option is needed to break the impasse.
Mr. Eagles, Vettel and Raikkonen are quite an amusing pair.
It says a lot about their ability that they are able to formulate jokes on the fly while competently driving an extraordinarily powerful machine right on the ragged edge.
As a leaver, I look forward to a second referendum.
It has been two and a half years and despite the fact that remain has doubled down again and again on project fear and campaigned relentlessly for two and a half years, the polls have barely shifted (54/46 now vs 52/48 on the eve of the referendum).
It will be a chance to stick it to the out of touch elite who think they have the right to ride roughshod over democracy, do as they say, ignore our opinions, and treat us as the serfs they think we are.
Didn't you hear us the first time? How about now?
That is certainly how a second referendum campaign will be fought, and it is for that reason I am certain it will win.
You were telling me off last night about second referendums....
But I don't know why you assume a second vote would mean Brexit won't happen. It's that attitude that saw Remain lose in the first place.
1) The polls seems to indicate a decisive move against Leave (yes, I know polls shouldn't be trusted!) 2) Remain will not screw up their campaign again. 3) It's the economy, stupid!
Let's see, I am quietly confident that Remain will see it through.
Bizarre personal referendum stat: I've earned more money over the past two financial years than I've ever earned in my life. So have many of my colleagues.
We work in printing and it's been a very strange couple of years. All the economic news has been bad and all the predictions have been pessimistic, but we - like a lot of other printing companies - have been extremely busy.
Whether it's pure coincidence is anyone's guess, but I haven't earned like this since 2002-2003.
Interesting - what sort of clients, if you don't mind me asking? Is it general stuff, or something specialised?
We are litho printing (catalogues, magazines etc) and us sales guys earn decent salaries but earn bigger on commission. I get 3% on everything I sell over £50k and the past few months I've been well north of £200k a month, as the business has had successive record months. We've had a very strong two years.
I wonder if it's the contraction of the printers in the market, the value of the pound (we've picked up work that's come back from Italy), the fact we (sometimes) do a very good job (!) ... who knows? But it's been buoyant.
By contrast, 2008-2010 was an extremely tough time.
ps - I'm no millionaire btw! I have nothing in the bank. Earn and spend!
Congratulations! (And bloody well do put something in the bank, and ISAs, and pensions, while the going is good!)
Interesting that it sounds like work which would be largely geared to general economic activity. There does seem to be a strange mismatch between the official economic statistics and what appears to be happening on the ground.
To present the nation with a choice between two deeply unattractive outcomes, vassalage and chaos, is a failure of British statecraft on a scale unseen since the Suez crisis.
But I don't know why you assume a second vote would mean Brexit won't happen. It's that attitude that saw Remain lose in the first place.
1) The polls seems to indicate a decisive move against Leave (yes, I know polls shouldn't be trusted!) 2) Remain will not screw up their campaign again. 3) It's the economy, stupid!
Let's see, I am quietly confident that Remain will see it through.
I hope you are happy to risk no deal for the chance of that, since that is what MPs would be doing, and any of us who back a second referendum, are doing as well.
To present the nation with a choice between two deeply unattractive outcomes, vassalage and chaos, is a failure of British statecraft on a scale unseen since the Suez crisis.
Another in a long list of 'why did it take you this long to notice then, if you are so smart' resignations.
Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.
It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
I find myself in the somewhat difficult position of being someone who supported Chequers as a fair compromise, but now unlikely to be able to support what emerges from these negotiations if what we are starting to hear is in any way accurate.
I will wait to see what's in the Withdrawal Agreement when it's published, but I'm not holding my breath.
"I think the great mistake she made was the 'citizens of nowhere' speech. It simultaneously alienated remainers as defining Brexit as something designed to marginalise their values in favour of the 'winning' side, and raise Brexiteer expectations to a level she was never going to be able to deliver on thanks to the nature of negotiations (specifically designed to favour the EU over the leaving party), the contradictions between the various cases for leave, and the complete lack of understanding of their own project from many leading leavers. The result? She had to fudge and kick the can down the road each time reality intruded, while Brexiteers demanded more flesh and remainers became more convinced the whole thing was an ongoing disaster."
Absolutely- it was a speech that alienated a huge amount of people. As a Remainer I had been prepared to give Mrs. May the benefit of the doubt, to think that she was reasonably sincere in trying to find common ground, that EFTA could still be on the table. After the speech, it was clear that she had been captured by the Hard Brexit fools gold.
She has spent most of her premiership tying herself in knots trying to find a sort of unilateral sub-EFTA solution which is pleasing no one and by prolonging the agonized uncertainty of UK business has cost us hundred of billions of Pounds. So now: the UK reputation is trashed, and we are mostly derided or ignored. Investment has collapsed, the City is hemorrhaging capital and jobs and manufacturing is being pushed to the brink.
Sinema toast up by around 9000, no difference to last night. We await tonight's returns ! Florida is a complete and utter dumpster fire of an election now, even worse than Brexit.
Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.
It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
Almost.
I think the last couple of years have demonstrated that you have to put the Irish border on the table if you want a full escape. Had the Tories shocked everyone by saying "We're definitely leaving the SM/CU and if we can do it without a hard Irish border all the better" then we would be in a different place. One small mercy that they haven't ever gone there, even though it's done nothing but box them in throughout.
It would have been put on the table had May won a decent majority at GE2017.
Everything stems from that and I've had a bad feeling in my gut ever since that exit poll.
Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.
It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
I find myself in the somewhat difficult position of being someone who supported Chequers as a fair compromise, but now unlikely to be able to support what emerges from these negotiations if what we are starting to hear is in any way accurate.
I will wait to see what's in the Withdrawal Agreement when it's published, but I'm not holding my breath.
If you can't agree with it what will you favour next Casino?
It seems to me that the ball is now in the EU's court.
Do they have a "big, open and comprehensive offer" up their sleeve?
The EU doesn't have a George Osborne type figure who does that sort of clever strategic thinking.
I'd agree that, if they put a small improvement on Cameron's deal on the table now, they might be able to kill Brexit stone-dead, but May would have to walk or be booted out first as, once she's committed to a policy, that's it.
Indeed I think you may be right. I can't quite see how it gets stopped by March 29 but nor can I see how it proceeds. It's clear there is no parliamentary majority for any proposal that May could bring forward and nor is there a majority for no deal. The likelihood must be that somehow the process will be stopped but exactly how that will come about is not at all clear. Revolution anyone?
Popcorn. Sadly Owen blocked me when I objected to his brief treatise on the harmlessness of wreath-laying on terrorists' graves as a hobby.
It's the same sort of argument, isn't it? Person X is a friend of Y who is a friend of Z and therefore X must be condemned for Y's and Z's views, pace Johnsons major and minor.
Blimey, lot of panic amongst the more febrile leavers on here. Be a good time for the EU to drop a nice fat carrot (of approved straightness and colour).
Those lads will think some fiendish coded EUSSR message will be attached about where to insert it.
Gifts: consistently Grecian Cakes: to be owned & consumed
Indeed I think you may be right. I can't quite see how it gets stopped by March 29 but nor can I see how it proceeds. It's clear there is no parliamentary majority for any proposal that May could bring forward and nor is there a majority for no deal. The likelihood must be that somehow the process will be stopped but exactly how that will come about is not at all clear. Revolution anyone?
There are only two and only two non-catastrophic choices: ratify the Brexit deal or revoke notification. Parliament is incapable of deciding between them because of the 2016 mandate, so it has to be put to the people.
Indeed I think you may be right. I can't quite see how it gets stopped by March 29 but nor can I see how it proceeds. It's clear there is no parliamentary majority for any proposal that May could bring forward and nor is there a majority for no deal. The likelihood must be that somehow the process will be stopped but exactly how that will come about is not at all clear. Revolution anyone?
Well I suppose the Queen could announce she's rescinding her delegation of the exercise of her executive powers to the Cabinet.
Blimey, lot of panic amongst the more febrile leavers on here. Be a good time for the EU to drop a nice fat carrot (of approved straightness and colour).
Those lads will think some fiendish coded EUSSR message will be attached about where to insert it.
Gifts: consistently Grecian Cakes: to be owned & consumed
Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.
It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
Well, that it’s impossible to get out without a good idea of what “out” means, and without doing the necessary work to prepare for the disruption of changing the terms under which your trade and supply chains work. Sadly for the Brexiteers, two years of in-fighting and posturing doesn’t suffice.
The problem is that you only have two years to do it in, which is not enough, and is designed not to be enough.
If the EU was truly hated by 80%+ of the population, the Government had a stonking majority, and the political desire for independence it trumped any and all economic considerations, including a small recession, then we absolutely could Leave, and fully Leave, inside 2 years even though it might take us a decade or so to recover. I suppose Eire c. 1920 might be a good comparison.
Making Boris look the sane one in the family - some achievement!
The irony is both agree the present deal is likely to fall and they have both said remain is the best option.
It looks like we are entering the last days of brexit
If so, one thing will have been demonstrated. It is impossible to get out.
I find myself in the somewhat difficult position of being someone who supported Chequers as a fair compromise, but now unlikely to be able to support what emerges from these negotiations if what we are starting to hear is in any way accurate.
I will wait to see what's in the Withdrawal Agreement when it's published, but I'm not holding my breath.
If you can't agree with it what will you favour next Casino?
Sinema toast up by around 9000, no difference to last night. We await tonight's returns ! Florida is a complete and utter dumpster fire of an election now, even worse than Brexit.
Can we call it for Sinema now then? It looks the latest returns seem to be favouring her.
Yeah just catching up on Florida - looks like another "oops" moment for the south Florida election officials!
Comments
The EU has seen May capitulate over and over again. It may prefer the UK to leave for her vassal terms.
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1060933638546747393
https://twitter.com/david_cameron/status/595112367358406656?lang=en
Carrots are generally orange.....
I'd anticipate that (depending on the choice we were given) the Leave argument would be along the lines of:-
1. What part of Leave don't they understand?
2. The establishment have deliberately made a mess of things in order to keep us in the EU.
[1] No PDOs here - swivel on it France!
https://twitter.com/rosenbaum6/status/1060934258896846849
I don't thing the 'fear of foreigners' is as resonant now the Syrian migrant crisis has passed, and without that the cutting edge of the Leave campaign is much-blunted.
If she had soberly set out in a speech why leaving was going to be a much longer and complicated process than leavers wanted, and explained that she wanted to unite the country round a departure that everyone but the zealots could live with, but that got us out without dicing with chaos, she might have fared much better.
No Tory PM will call one.
Best option is to Leave and between five and ten years we'll have worked out if Brexit is a success or disaster, if it is the latter, we'll rejoin, it'll have the added benefit of destroying the British Eurosceptic movement for a long time, if not ever.
It has been two and a half years and despite the fact that remain has doubled down again and again on project fear and campaigned relentlessly for two and a half years, the polls have barely shifted (54/46 now vs 52/48 on the eve of the referendum).
It will be a chance to stick it to the out of touch elite who think they have the right to ride roughshod over democracy, do as they say, ignore our opinions, and treat us as the serfs they think we are.
Didn't you hear us the first time? How about now?
That is certainly how a second referendum campaign will be fought, and it is for that reason I am certain it will win.
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/11/09/jo-johnson-resignation-it-s-getting-hard-to-see-how-may-will
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1060940896663990272
We won't have left. We're leaving now, we've been leaving for two-and-a-half years, and we'll keep on like this in some godawful transition period so we'll still be leaving ten years from now.
And that's what we voted for. To be leaving.
Always.
We'll all just meekly do what we're told by Blair, Heseltine and Campbell.
We work in printing and it's been a very strange couple of years. All the economic news has been bad and all the predictions have been pessimistic, but we - like a lot of other printing companies - have been extremely busy.
Whether it's pure coincidence is anyone's guess, but I haven't earned like this since 2002-2003.
And, good evening everyone - how was your day?
A Brexit that actually works and fulfils leavers' promises doesn't exist because their promises were either contradictory, false, ill-informed, or all three. May has had a good go at magicking one into existence, but she can't turn bullshit into gold.
You just need to read the witterings of someone like Andrea Jenkyns or look at how David Davis wears his ignorance with pride to see why it's gone wrong. If it was to succeed Brexit had to be a long, dull, intricate technical exercise that ignored blowhard claims - you're attempting to undo and redo 40 years of economic intergration. It's an incredibly complex task. Unfortunately on both sides of the house we have some of the most unserious and intellectually lacking politicians in our history.
But I don't know why you assume a second vote would mean Brexit won't happen. It's that attitude that saw Remain lose in the first place.
This could be one to revisit on 29th March 2019.
I wonder if it's the contraction of the printers in the market, the value of the pound (we've picked up work that's come back from Italy), the fact we (sometimes) do a very good job (!) ... who knows? But it's been buoyant.
By contrast, 2008-2010 was an extremely tough time.
ps - I'm no millionaire btw! I have nothing in the bank. Earn and spend!
However I'd probably vote remain second time around. It's not like Remaining would heal any divisions or anything, but it's increasingly not worth it, particularly as the hardest leavers are never going to be satisfied, and their search for purity is why we might not get any Brexit at all.
(Continues...)
Changing Tory leader doesn't seem like it achieves anything. May isn't some demonic entity who has possessed the parliamentary party against its will, she has pursued her course of action because no one would remove her, apparently because they know their own preferred options don't command sufficient support either.
I recommended May stand down ages ago and they at least try another option, but it's probably too late for that now as well. So it's time for Remainers and Hard Leavers to stop posturing and see if they really believe the public support them as they claim - have a second referendum, and make it binding.
No, it would not be easy to get even that passed. No, it would not make things any less divisive. But I am sick and tired of people insisting one side or the other is clearly what the public want, but too afraid to ask them - I wouldn't care at all if the MPs would do their jobs and agree something, anything, but since no option seems like it can pass, some option is needed to break the impasse.
2) Remain will not screw up their campaign again.
3) It's the economy, stupid!
Let's see, I am quietly confident that Remain will see it through.
Interesting that it sounds like work which would be largely geared to general economic activity. There does seem to be a strange mismatch between the official economic statistics and what appears to be happening on the ground.
To present the nation with a choice between two deeply unattractive outcomes, vassalage and chaos, is a failure of British statecraft on a scale unseen since the Suez crisis.
I will wait to see what's in the Withdrawal Agreement when it's published, but I'm not holding my breath.
Absolutely- it was a speech that alienated a huge amount of people. As a Remainer I had been prepared to give Mrs. May the benefit of the doubt, to think that she was reasonably sincere in trying to find common ground, that EFTA could still be on the table. After the speech, it was clear that she had been captured by the Hard Brexit fools gold.
She has spent most of her premiership tying herself in knots trying to find a sort of unilateral sub-EFTA solution which is pleasing no one and by prolonging the agonized uncertainty of UK business has cost us hundred of billions of Pounds. So now: the UK reputation is trashed, and we are mostly derided or ignored. Investment has collapsed, the City is hemorrhaging capital and jobs and manufacturing is being pushed to the brink.
Florida is a complete and utter dumpster fire of an election now, even worse than Brexit.
Everything stems from that and I've had a bad feeling in my gut ever since that exit poll.
I'd agree that, if they put a small improvement on Cameron's deal on the table now, they might be able to kill Brexit stone-dead, but May would have to walk or be booted out first as, once she's committed to a policy, that's it.
Gifts: consistently Grecian
Cakes: to be owned & consumed
However, we are not in that world.
Yeah just catching up on Florida - looks like another "oops" moment for the south Florida election officials!