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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My Cruz-O’Rourke spread bet – “selling the Republican” at 53%

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  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,857
    Cyclefree said:

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF said:

    Guido’s latest suggests Hain is rooked.

    Perhaps he can do his time on Robben Island.

    it's more that the telegraph editor is in trouble for breaching the injunction

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1056286934878879745
    Not sure that's how Harry's 'Tory' mind works.
    They are both in trouble. And the Telegraph’s lawyers must have their heads in their hands ......
    What could Hain be fingered for?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited October 2018
    TGOHF said:

    What’s the collective noun for a group of frauds ?

    Makes a nice campaign poster mind you..

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1056289435422261249?s=21

    We have been assured before that pictures of politicians holding hands with another politician who is very disliked is devastating and worthy of deep criticism, when the leader is Trump, so this must be very significant indeed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Nigelb said:

    America didn’t decide any such thing.

    A significant proportion of America decided that owning guns was more important than preventing thousands of people getting shot every year.

    Is it me, or is the cycle of news commentary on such shootings getting shorter and shorter as well? It feels like Trump's kind of comment usually falls a little while longer into the standard set of responses, but that may be my faulty memory. I do wonder what will happen when the cycle is shortened to the point of being practically instantaneous.
  • Road deaths per annum:

    UK - 1800
    US - 37,000

    It isn't just about guns. The US is an outlier to other western countries in all sorts of ways.

    For road deaths it’s us that is the outlier: most countries have much more dangerous roads.

    I think it’s the side effect of all those traffic jams.
    Amongst the highly developed economies I can't see any country close to the US. New Zealand is the nearest I think.
    They seem to be twice as dangerous as us per vehicle km and better than countries like Spain and indeed New Zealand. The data on the Wikipedia page is very incomplete though.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    Believe it or not, this desensitisation is the theme of this season's South Park. Seriously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfKqVBzSOps
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Cyclefree said:

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF said:

    Guido’s latest suggests Hain is rooked.

    Perhaps he can do his time on Robben Island.

    it's more that the telegraph editor is in trouble for breaching the injunction

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1056286934878879745
    Not sure that's how Harry's 'Tory' mind works.
    They are both in trouble. And the Telegraph’s lawyers must have their heads in their hands ......
    What could Hain be fingered for?
    Didnt he say it was someone close to the victims that informed him ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    What’s the collective noun for a group of frauds ?

    Makes a nice campaign poster mind you..

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1056289435422261249?s=21

    We have been assured before that pictures of politicians holding hands with another politician who is very disliked is devastating and worthy of deep criticism, when the leader is Trump, so this must be very significant indeed.

    Can’t imagine the Dutch will be that impressed with this nonsense either.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,857
    TGOHF said:

    What’s the collective noun for a group of frauds ?

    Makes a nice campaign poster mind you..

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1056289435422261249?s=21

    Strange picture. Macron looks like Steve Carrell in one of his serious roles, Erdogan like he's had one too many and wants to lead the hokey cokey and Putin seems to be doing some sort of KGB vice like grip on Merkel who's trying not to look in pain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    viewcode said:

    Believe it or not, this desensitisation is the theme of this season's South Park. Seriously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfKqVBzSOps
    South Park's style is to be very unsubtle about things, but I must confess the first couple of episodes I thought the point was effective.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    When in doubt, fall back on the old 'arm the victims' pish.

    https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1056223219601018885

    Bet there's lots of NRA funded Reps sending their prayers today.

    Trump is a fucking idiot.
    But that is not exactly news.
    Au contraire. He is not an idiot. He knows exactly what he is doing.
    To be more precise, he’s a moral imbecile.

    He might know what he’s about in a narrow political sense, but I don’t believe he has any conception of the importance of democratic institutions, and the damage he is inflicting on them.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141

    Cyclefree said:

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF said:

    Guido’s latest suggests Hain is rooked.

    Perhaps he can do his time on Robben Island.

    it's more that the telegraph editor is in trouble for breaching the injunction

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1056286934878879745
    Not sure that's how Harry's 'Tory' mind works.
    They are both in trouble. And the Telegraph’s lawyers must have their heads in their hands ......
    What could Hain be fingered for?
    About £5 and a bag of chips?

    Oh...you meant something different.

    Oh.

    Ah, my coat... :)
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    When in doubt, fall back on the old 'arm the victims' pish.

    https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1056223219601018885

    Bet there's lots of NRA funded Reps sending their prayers today.

    Trump is a fucking idiot.
    But that is not exactly news.
    Au contraire. He is not an idiot. He knows exactly what he is doing.
    Nope, anyone who inherits an equivalent $416 million fortune, and then manages to go bankrupt at least 6 times is some kind of genius, not!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Foxy said:

    The owners take off from the pitch to fly to London after matches. Almost certainly on board. It went up in flames.

    Seriously bad news.

    https://twitter.com/zaghumhashmee/status/1056273040080883713?s=19
    Could well be dreadful, family involved IIRC. All sorts of repercussions.
    Not quite sure what you mean there.
    Leicester City's chairman is also a kingpin in a number of enterprises, in Britain, Thailand and elsewhere. His sons are involved in his businesses.
    A journo says he's had it confirmed that Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha was on board. He stresses no confirmation regarding the health of anyone who was on the helicopter, and in a second tweet says speculation about that is wrong. I'm afraid I can't entirely agree on the latter. Though I hope I'm wrong one really wonders how there could be no news of them even being in a hospital an hour or more after the crash - unless I've simply missed it.

    https://twitter.com/JacobsBen/status/1056295939932110848
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    And how long is it going to be before the the rest of the planet declares the USA a pariah state and changes the reserve currency?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Quincel said:

    Foxy said:

    The owners take off from the pitch to fly to London after matches. Almost certainly on board. It went up in flames.

    Seriously bad news.

    https://twitter.com/zaghumhashmee/status/1056273040080883713?s=19
    Could well be dreadful, family involved IIRC. All sorts of repercussions.
    Not quite sure what you mean there.
    Leicester City's chairman is also a kingpin in a number of enterprises, in Britain, Thailand and elsewhere. His sons are involved in his businesses.
    A journo says he's had it confirmed that Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha was on board. He stresses no confirmation regarding the health of anyone who was on the helicopter, and in a second tweet says speculation about that is wrong. I'm afraid I can't entirely agree on the latter. Though I hope I'm wrong one really wonders how there could be no news of them even being in a hospital an hour or more after the crash - unless I've simply missed it.

    https://twitter.com/JacobsBen/status/1056295939932110848
    I assume its simply a case of not announcing news before informing the next of kin.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Believe it or not, this desensitisation is the theme of this season's South Park. Seriously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfKqVBzSOps
    South Park's style is to be very unsubtle about things, but I must confess the first couple of episodes I thought the point was effective.
    Indeed
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    I wasn't really following that closely but i got the impression that Hain argued that he was standing up for the victims, one of whom was his source. If his source was just the Telegraph that puts something of a different complexion on it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    OchEye said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    When in doubt, fall back on the old 'arm the victims' pish.

    https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1056223219601018885

    Bet there's lots of NRA funded Reps sending their prayers today.

    Trump is a fucking idiot.
    But that is not exactly news.
    Au contraire. He is not an idiot. He knows exactly what he is doing.
    Nope, anyone who inherits an equivalent $416 million fortune, and then manages to go bankrupt at least 6 times is some kind of genius, not!
    I did not claim he was any kind of genius, merely he knows what he's doing. His playbook is well-worn. Sow division, tacitly encourage violence, engender fear, use that as an excuse to crackdown and centralise more powers around the only strongman who can protect the in-group.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    JonathanD said:

    Quincel said:

    Foxy said:

    The owners take off from the pitch to fly to London after matches. Almost certainly on board. It went up in flames.

    Seriously bad news.

    https://twitter.com/zaghumhashmee/status/1056273040080883713?s=19
    Could well be dreadful, family involved IIRC. All sorts of repercussions.
    Not quite sure what you mean there.
    Leicester City's chairman is also a kingpin in a number of enterprises, in Britain, Thailand and elsewhere. His sons are involved in his businesses.
    A journo says he's had it confirmed that Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha was on board. He stresses no confirmation regarding the health of anyone who was on the helicopter, and in a second tweet says speculation about that is wrong. I'm afraid I can't entirely agree on the latter. Though I hope I'm wrong one really wonders how there could be no news of them even being in a hospital an hour or more after the crash - unless I've simply missed it.

    https://twitter.com/JacobsBen/status/1056295939932110848
    I assume its simply a case of not announcing news before informing the next of kin.
    That's certainly my thought. You hope for a good outcome but looking at the images of the crash site (and knowledge of previous helicopter crash outcomes) you fear the silence is sinister.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    dodrade said:

    justin124 said:

    Just read this in earlier Thread

    Mike Smithson said:
    'Heath's Tories at GE1970 hold a unique record. This was the only occasion in recent times when a party with a working Commons majority has been replaced by the main opposition party with a working majority. With all other changes of power the outgoing government had lost its working majority (1951) or didn't have one (1997), or else the incoming government didn't have a working majority (1964 & 2010) '

    Attlee's outgoing Government in October 1951 had not lost its majority - indeed it still retained the 6 seat majority won in February 1950. It had become a very tired administration , but there was no reason for Attlee to have called an election at that time. From a Labour perspective, it was a disastrous decision and perhaps it is surprising that Attlee was not seriously challenged in the aftermath. Apparently he had believed that the popularity of the Festival of Britain that summer would enhance Labour's prospects significantly.

    Labour did win the popular vote and increased their vote share in 1951, yet somehow FPTP turned this into a Conservative majority of 17.
    In 1951, the SNP got 7,299 votes in total and increased their support at every election until October '74 when they got 839,617.

    Scottish Nationalism was reborn in the 60s.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited October 2018
    alex. said:

    I wasn't really following that closely but i got the impression that Hain argued that he was standing up for the victims, one of whom was his source. If his source was just the Telegraph that puts something of a different complexion on it.

    He didn’t say a victim was his source, he said somebody with intimate knowledge of the case was.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,778
    edited October 2018
    viewcode said:

    Believe it or not, this desensitisation is the theme of this season's South Park. Seriously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfKqVBzSOps
    Just watched an episode of Ken Burn's outstanding Vietnam documentary.

    One of the interviewees says, of Kent State killings (4 students shot by national guard), once we are killing our own children at home, never mind 3,000 miles away, what have we become?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    alex. said:

    I wasn't really following that closely but i got the impression that Hain argued that he was standing up for the victims, one of whom was his source. If his source was just the Telegraph that puts something of a different complexion on it.

    He didn’t say a victim was his source, he said somebody with intimate knowledge of the case was.
    I think he said he was asked to do it by somebody 'intimately invoved' which is slightly different and could only be a victim if he wasn't intending to deceive.

    He's a a piece of shit which is disappointing because he was a childhood hero of mine..
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Off topic - Red Dead Redemption 2 is amazing. Among the best games I've ever played.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited October 2018
    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    I wasn't really following that closely but i got the impression that Hain argued that he was standing up for the victims, one of whom was his source. If his source was just the Telegraph that puts something of a different complexion on it.

    He didn’t say a victim was his source, he said somebody with intimate knowledge of the case was.
    I think he said he was asked to do it by somebody 'intimately invoved' which is slightly different and could only be a victim if he wasn't intending to deceive.

    He's a a piece of shit which is disappointing because he was a childhood hero of mine..
    The exact quote is Lord Hain said he had been contacted by someone "intimately involved in the case".

    I think hain was wrong, but I don’t think he has claimed a victim told him to do it or been deceptive. That statement could easily mean a staff member at the telegraph, the law firm on either side, the courts, even somebody who works for Green (but not a victim) decided to leak the name.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited October 2018
    MaxPB said:

    Off topic - Red Dead Redemption 2 is amazing. Among the best games I've ever played.

    Incredible game, can’t wait to play it on PC (when get even better graphics at high fps, minus some bugs, etc). But rockstar will probably wait 2 years before they release it.

    Obviously the graphics are great, interesting story and missions, but for me What rockstar really manage to nail in their games is the dialogue between quests and “downtime”. You really want to hear the tales the characters tell.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited October 2018
    MaxPB said:

    Off topic - Red Dead Redemption 2 is amazing. Among the best games I've ever played.

    Personally, I’m looking forward to the new Cthulhu game. GTA 5 left me cold.
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    will the libertarian candidate take votes from cruz in a tight race? it seems unlikely to me im sure most libertarian voters would rather cruz than orourke
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    @thescreamingeagles The Embassy Manor Top if you are anywhere near the South Yorkshire homeland

    Manor Top's a bit too working class for me

    Am knackered tonight, have guests visiting tomorrow so have been prepping for that.
    Ah. Shame was a good night, catch cover band THOR if/when you can.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    spire2 said:

    will the libertarian candidate take votes from cruz in a tight race? it seems unlikely to me im sure most libertarian voters would rather cruz than orourke

    Despite his personal odiousness, his values are very libertarian (with a dose of hefty Christianity)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited October 2018
    BBC news presenter just said understands chairman and manager were on board the helicopter.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    MaxPB said:

    Off topic - Red Dead Redemption 2 is amazing. Among the best games I've ever played.

    Also amazing, albeit in a very different way, Is The Return of Obra Dinn.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    viewcode said:

    Believe it or not, this desensitisation is the theme of this season's South Park. Seriously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfKqVBzSOps
    Just watched an episode of Ken Burn's outstanding Vietnam documentary.

    One of the interviewees says, of Kent State killings (4 students shot by national guard), once we are killing our own children at home, never mind 3,000 miles away, what have we become?
    Max Hastings Vietnam book is also excellent
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,778
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Believe it or not, this desensitisation is the theme of this season's South Park. Seriously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfKqVBzSOps
    Just watched an episode of Ken Burn's outstanding Vietnam documentary.

    One of the interviewees says, of Kent State killings (4 students shot by national guard), once we are killing our own children at home, never mind 3,000 miles away, what have we become?
    Max Hastings Vietnam book is also excellent
    :+1: on my xmas list!
  • dodrade said:

    justin124 said:

    Just read this in earlier Thread

    Mike Smithson said:
    'Heath's Tories at GE1970 hold a unique record. This was the only occasion in recent times when a party with a working Commons majority has been replaced by the main opposition party with a working majority. With all other changes of power the outgoing government had lost its working majority (1951) or didn't have one (1997), or else the incoming government didn't have a working majority (1964 & 2010) '

    Attlee's outgoing Government in October 1951 had not lost its majority - indeed it still retained the 6 seat majority won in February 1950. It had become a very tired administration , but there was no reason for Attlee to have called an election at that time. From a Labour perspective, it was a disastrous decision and perhaps it is surprising that Attlee was not seriously challenged in the aftermath. Apparently he had believed that the popularity of the Festival of Britain that summer would enhance Labour's prospects significantly.

    Labour did win the popular vote and increased their vote share in 1951, yet somehow FPTP turned this into a Conservative majority of 17.
    The Conservatives (well Unionists) won 4 seats unopposed in N.I. If Labour or their allies had stood, the gap would have been much closer, especially due to the larger electorates then in N.I.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    BBC news presenter just said understands chairman and manager were on board the helicopter.

    Silver lining - as Puel was being lined for the chop, payments will come from insurance and not from the club.

  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    blimey matt that's a bit cold
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    spire2 said:

    blimey matt that's a bit cold

    Charter operators used to have cheaper insurance costs than scheduled on the basis that if you crashed, you’d kill the whole family.

    FWIW, helicopters are in my view vanity fueled killing machines. Normally privately owned with wealthy customers who don’t take delays happily. That’s before exploding gearboxes and all the risks involved with single engine operation.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    matt said:



    FWIW, helicopters are in my view vanity fueled killing machines. Normally privately owned with wealthy customers who don’t take delays happily. That’s before exploding gearboxes and all the risks involved with single engine operation.

    Very few helicopter accidents are survivable. I saw the entire rotor head come off a UH-1 at a height of only 5-6m. All six on board were killed.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Believe it or not, this desensitisation is the theme of this season's South Park. Seriously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfKqVBzSOps
    Just watched an episode of Ken Burn's outstanding Vietnam documentary.

    One of the interviewees says, of Kent State killings (4 students shot by national guard), once we are killing our own children at home, never mind 3,000 miles away, what have we become?
    Max Hastings Vietnam book is also excellent
    Haven't read it yet. am waiting for it to come out in paperback next May.

    #NoSpoilers
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Believe it or not, this desensitisation is the theme of this season's South Park. Seriously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfKqVBzSOps
    Just watched an episode of Ken Burn's outstanding Vietnam documentary.

    One of the interviewees says, of Kent State killings (4 students shot by national guard), once we are killing our own children at home, never mind 3,000 miles away, what have we become?
    Max Hastings Vietnam book is also excellent
    Haven't read it yet. am waiting for it to come out in paperback next May.

    #NoSpoilers
    What's brilliant about it is that it starts in 1945, and so you get the backstory of French Indochina.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Believe it or not, this desensitisation is the theme of this season's South Park. Seriously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfKqVBzSOps
    Just watched an episode of Ken Burn's outstanding Vietnam documentary.

    One of the interviewees says, of Kent State killings (4 students shot by national guard), once we are killing our own children at home, never mind 3,000 miles away, what have we become?
    Max Hastings Vietnam book is also excellent
    Haven't read it yet. am waiting for it to come out in paperback next May.

    #NoSpoilers
    What's brilliant about it is that it starts in 1945, and so you get the backstory of French Indochina.
    As long as you don't tell me what happens in the end... :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    I've written an article for @TheScreamingEagles . It's a Word document. How do I get it to him?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    I've got to go to bed so if somebody could let me know I'll forward it in the morning... :(
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    viewcode said:

    I've written an article for @TheScreamingEagles . It's a Word document. How do I get it to him?

    You can send him a vanilla message, click on his username, then click the "message" button in the top right.
This discussion has been closed.