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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My Cruz-O’Rourke spread bet – “selling the Republican” at 53%

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited October 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My Cruz-O’Rourke spread bet – “selling the Republican” at 53%

PB regulars will know that I am a keen spread better on political events where the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. Essentially you “buy” and “sell” a position as though it was a stock or share and watch how the market moves.

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Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good evening, everyone.

    I have a tiny bet on O'Rourke, so let's hope that comes off.

    F1: interesting third practice. I suspect predicting qualifying might be a mite tricky, but I'll see how things stand.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,297
    edited October 2018
    I was a keen small scale moderately successful spread better for a bit.

    Then 8 June 2018 happened, and I did not do as well as Mike !
  • MattW said:

    I was a keen spread better.

    the only thing I spread better is on toast
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MattW said:

    I was a keen small scale spread better for a bit.

    Then 8 June 2018 happened !

    I lost at GE2015. At GE17 I never thought for a minute that the Tories would lose their majority and given my financial exposure I was very nervous while waiting for the exit poll. On the day before Iain Dale had predicted 400+ CON seats.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    MattW said:

    I was a keen small scale spread better for a bit.

    Then 8 June 2018 happened !

    I lost at GE2015. At GE17 I never thought for a minute that the Tories would lose their majority and given my financial exposure I was very nervous while waiting for the exit poll. On the day before Iain Dale had predicted 400+ CON seats.
    Betting against Dale normally works out well
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    edited October 2018
    Betting Post

    F1: pre-qualifying ramble: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2018.html

    Backed Raikkonen for the fastest time in qualifying, each way at 21.

    I just think the odds are wonky. The Red Bulls, Hamilton and Vettel are all under 5. Yet Raikkonen's out at 21. The Red Bulls suffered battery problems in third practice, and Bottas' hydraulics problem may mean he can't even contest qualifying. The party mode could mean it's a three horse race (Hamilton, Vettel, Raikkonen) for pole and, if so, 21 is just too long.

    Edited extra bit: oh, and I've set up a hedge on Ladbrokes Exchange at 3 (got more cash there than Ladbrokes).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300

    Betting Post

    F1: pre-qualifying ramble: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2018.html

    Backed Raikkonen for the fastest time in qualifying, each way at 21.

    I just think the odds are wonky. The Red Bulls, Hamilton and Vettel are all under 5. Yet Raikkonen's out at 21. The Red Bulls suffered battery problems in third practice, and Bottas' hydraulics problem may mean he can't even contest qualifying. The party mode could mean it's a three horse race (Hamilton, Vettel, Raikkonen) for pole and, if so, 21 is just too long.

    Edited extra bit: oh, and I've set up a hedge on Ladbrokes Exchange at 3 (got more cash there than Ladbrokes).

    Each way is probably OK, but I don’t think there’s much chance of a Raikkonen pole... 21 isn’t so long when there are three drivers clearly faster.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    If I were willing to risk spread betting, I’d be quite tempted by Mike’s idea.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,015
    edited October 2018
    When in doubt, fall back on the old 'arm the victims' pish.

    https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1056223219601018885

    Bet there's lots of NRA funded Reps sending their prayers today.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    edited October 2018
    Trump got up close to white supremacists - empowered them, spoke their language, called them good people. This week they have tried to assasinate a series of leading Democrats and managed to slaughter a number of entirely innocent Jews. That’s where the President has taken America.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    So it turns out I belong to the measured middle clan. I can't pretend I'm not a little disappointed to belong to such a boring group of people though pleased to see that we are the joint smallest group on 7%.
  • A new cross-party group of MPs plans to thwart Brexit by swinging the Commons behind a second referendum as soon as Theresa May requests parliament’s backing for a deal with the EU, as pressure mounts on party leaders to put the issue back to the people.

    Tory, Labour and SNP members say they will table a “killer” amendment in favour of a public vote. The amendment, if passed, will state that acceptance of the prime minister’s deal must be dependent on a public vote taking place beforehand, in which people would be offered the choice of leaving on the terms of that deal, or staying in the EU.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/27/jeremy-corbyn-second-brexit-vote-commons-amendment
  • When in doubt, fall back on the old 'arm the victims' pish.

    https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1056223219601018885

    Bet there's lots of NRA funded Reps sending their prayers today.

    He shot three policemen. They were armed.

  • When in doubt, fall back on the old 'arm the victims' pish.

    https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1056223219601018885

    Bet there's lots of NRA funded Reps sending their prayers today.

    He shot three policemen. They were armed.

    If only they had been more heavily armed....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    A new cross-party group of MPs plans to thwart Brexit by swinging the Commons behind a second referendum as soon as Theresa May requests parliament’s backing for a deal with the EU, as pressure mounts on party leaders to put the issue back to the people.

    Tory, Labour and SNP members say they will table a “killer” amendment in favour of a public vote. The amendment, if passed, will state that acceptance of the prime minister’s deal must be dependent on a public vote taking place beforehand, in which people would be offered the choice of leaving on the terms of that deal, or staying in the EU.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/27/jeremy-corbyn-second-brexit-vote-commons-amendment

    Oh, what a surprise. And so cynical as well, since clearly it would have been the case no matter the deal, if the report is correct. I genuinely think that our MPs have been so useless and partisan that we probably do need a second vote just confirm any sort of option, but that it is so clearly intended just to thwart Brexit immediately undermines it, since it was obvious this tactic, for most, is indeed irrespective of whether a decent deal or not can be arranged. It immediately makes most of those who are behind it suspect, and depending on how they frame it, liars as well, if they pretend they would not always have done it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    When in doubt, fall back on the old 'arm the victims' pish.

    https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1056223219601018885

    Bet there's lots of NRA funded Reps sending their prayers today.

    As inevitable as the tides.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728

    Trump got up close to white supremacists - empowered them, spoke their language, called them good people. This week they have tried to assasinate a series of leading Democrats and managed to slaughter a number of entirely innocent Jews. That’s where the President has taken America.

    I wouldn't bet against him being a white supremacist, but do we know the suspect was one? Sadly, other groups aside from white supremacists dislike Jews.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Hmm, a rather obvious one appears to be missing from the list.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    kle4 said:

    A new cross-party group of MPs plans to thwart Brexit by swinging the Commons behind a second referendum as soon as Theresa May requests parliament’s backing for a deal with the EU, as pressure mounts on party leaders to put the issue back to the people.

    Tory, Labour and SNP members say they will table a “killer” amendment in favour of a public vote. The amendment, if passed, will state that acceptance of the prime minister’s deal must be dependent on a public vote taking place beforehand, in which people would be offered the choice of leaving on the terms of that deal, or staying in the EU.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/27/jeremy-corbyn-second-brexit-vote-commons-amendment

    Oh, what a surprise. And so cynical as well, since clearly it would have been the case no matter the deal, if the report is correct. I genuinely think that our MPs have been so useless and partisan that we probably do need a second vote just confirm any sort of option, but that it is so clearly intended just to thwart Brexit immediately undermines it, since it was obvious this tactic, for most, is indeed irrespective of whether a decent deal or not can be arranged. It immediately makes most of those who are behind it suspect, and depending on how they frame it, liars as well, if they pretend they would not always have done it.
    Won't this amendment just be voted down? I don't see why this is significant.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Quincel said:

    kle4 said:

    A new cross-party group of MPs plans to thwart Brexit by swinging the Commons behind a second referendum as soon as Theresa May requests parliament’s backing for a deal with the EU, as pressure mounts on party leaders to put the issue back to the people.

    Tory, Labour and SNP members say they will table a “killer” amendment in favour of a public vote. The amendment, if passed, will state that acceptance of the prime minister’s deal must be dependent on a public vote taking place beforehand, in which people would be offered the choice of leaving on the terms of that deal, or staying in the EU.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/27/jeremy-corbyn-second-brexit-vote-commons-amendment

    Oh, what a surprise. And so cynical as well, since clearly it would have been the case no matter the deal, if the report is correct. I genuinely think that our MPs have been so useless and partisan that we probably do need a second vote just confirm any sort of option, but that it is so clearly intended just to thwart Brexit immediately undermines it, since it was obvious this tactic, for most, is indeed irrespective of whether a decent deal or not can be arranged. It immediately makes most of those who are behind it suspect, and depending on how they frame it, liars as well, if they pretend they would not always have done it.
    Won't this amendment just be voted down? I don't see why this is significant.
    It probably isn't, nor is it a new development. And as I say, I'm not even opposed to the principle of a second vote. It's just frustrating and self defeating that it is always framed as a way to defeat Brexit. Even if that is the desired aim, and a clear possibility, couldn't they at least attempt to pretend they think the people need to have another say, and not that the people need to say the right thing this time?
  • Trump got up close to white supremacists - empowered them, spoke their language, called them good people. This week they have tried to assasinate a series of leading Democrats and managed to slaughter a number of entirely innocent Jews. That’s where the President has taken America.

    I wouldn't bet against him being a white supremacist, but do we know the suspect was one? Sadly, other groups aside from white supremacists dislike Jews.

    Yep, the man held is a known white supremacist with a history of anti-Semitism. In the US that kind of person can walk into a gun shop and get tooled up. It’s unbelievable.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728

    Trump got up close to white supremacists - empowered them, spoke their language, called them good people. This week they have tried to assasinate a series of leading Democrats and managed to slaughter a number of entirely innocent Jews. That’s where the President has taken America.

    I wouldn't bet against him being a white supremacist, but do we know the suspect was one? Sadly, other groups aside from white supremacists dislike Jews.

    Yep, the man held is a known white supremacist with a history of anti-Semitism. In the US that kind of person can walk into a gun shop and get tooled up. It’s unbelievable.

    Ah thanks. I hadn't seen that snippet of news yet.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Extremist language leads to extremist action. We can expect more extremism here. As in the USA, far too many on the right are far too relaxed about the extremists they are nourishing and giving cover to.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,153
    edited October 2018
    Claire Bassett has resigned as chief executive of the elections watchdog, while three commissioners who publicly opposed leaving the European Union will also go.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6322091/Election-watchdog-head-QUITS-claims-commission-biased-against-Brexit.html
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856

    Trump got up close to white supremacists - empowered them, spoke their language, called them good people. This week they have tried to assasinate a series of leading Democrats and managed to slaughter a number of entirely innocent Jews. That’s where the President has taken America.

    I wouldn't bet against him being a white supremacist, but do we know the suspect was one? Sadly, other groups aside from white supremacists dislike Jews.

    Yep, the man held is a known white supremacist with a history of anti-Semitism. In the US that kind of person can walk into a gun shop and get tooled up. It’s unbelievable.

    The really sad thing is that it won't be long before the 'inside job' conspiracies start.
  • Extremist language leads to extremist action. We can expect more extremism here. As in the USA, far too many on the right are far too relaxed about the extremists they are nourishing and giving cover to.

    And on the left.....
  • kle4 said:

    Hmm, a rather obvious one appears to be missing from the list.
    Doc Brown Back to the Future ?
  • Extremist language leads to extremist action. We can expect more extremism here. As in the USA, far too many on the right are far too relaxed about the extremists they are nourishing and giving cover to.

    And on the left.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910
    Evening all :)

    I'm not wholly convinced about O'Rourke but his response to the question about NFL players kneeling showed perhaps the first signs of centre and centre-left politicians coming up with a response to populism. Up to now, the response has either been to appease or to ignore but O'Rourke chose to confront and argue.

    I get that - the truth is appeasement gets you nowhere and convinces no one while ignoring the issue looks condescending and elitist. O'Rourke sought to justify and argue for what Kaepernick and others did not in terms of disrespecting anything but in terms of respect for the American right to protest peacefully.

    Perhaps more interesting he was challenging established notions of patriotism and challenging the "rules" of what it is to be patriotic in America.

    It's a lesson for the centre and centre-left over here - instead of chasing after the populist argument don't. Argue for your values and your patriotism in your terms and it's not about denigrating or denying other values but asserting yours.
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm not wholly convinced about O'Rourke but his response to the question about NFL players kneeling showed perhaps the first signs of centre and centre-left politicians coming up with a response to populism. Up to now, the response has either been to appease or to ignore but O'Rourke chose to confront and argue.

    I get that - the truth is appeasement gets you nowhere and convinces no one while ignoring the issue looks condescending and elitist. O'Rourke sought to justify and argue for what Kaepernick and others did not in terms of disrespecting anything but in terms of respect for the American right to protest peacefully.

    Perhaps more interesting he was challenging established notions of patriotism and challenging the "rules" of what it is to be patriotic in America.

    It's a lesson for the centre and centre-left over here - instead of chasing after the populist argument don't. Argue for your values and your patriotism in your terms and it's not about denigrating or denying other values but asserting yours.

    Great post.
  • MattW said:

    I was a keen small scale moderately successful spread better for a bit.

    Then 8 June 2018 happened, and I did not do as well as Mike !

    What happened on 8 June 2018?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,153
    edited October 2018
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm not wholly convinced about O'Rourke but his response to the question about NFL players kneeling showed perhaps the first signs of centre and centre-left politicians coming up with a response to populism. Up to now, the response has either been to appease or to ignore but O'Rourke chose to confront and argue.

    I get that - the truth is appeasement gets you nowhere and convinces no one while ignoring the issue looks condescending and elitist. O'Rourke sought to justify and argue for what Kaepernick and others did not in terms of disrespecting anything but in terms of respect for the American right to protest peacefully.

    Perhaps more interesting he was challenging established notions of patriotism and challenging the "rules" of what it is to be patriotic in America.

    It's a lesson for the centre and centre-left over here - instead of chasing after the populist argument don't. Argue for your values and your patriotism in your terms and it's not about denigrating or denying other values but asserting yours.

    My biggest problem is when those campaigning still use examples such as Ferguson, where there was no police injustice.
  • It appears that it's only the wrong kind of Jews that are the problem in Trump's America, ie those who help refugees and immigrants, protest the Muslim ban, visit people in detention centers, sort Syrians’ paperwork in Ecuador, set up housing for new refugees. No idea if the Pttsburgh synagogue was involved with HIAS, but collective punishment and all that.

    https://twitter.com/mollycrabapple/status/1056215842327879682
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910

    My biggest problem is when those campaigning still use examples such as Ferguson, where there was no police injustice.

    There may have been no "police injustice" as you put it but Fetguson wasn't wholly about it. It was about a community where relations between the Police and people had broken down. The DOJ report into the procedures and culture existing at the Ferguson PD made pretty damning reading and indeed the town as a whole subsisted on the revenue generated by the PD in terms of fines.

    Yes, we need to uphold the law but "policing by consent" is a valid term and elates to how the Police and community co-exist.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,153
    edited October 2018
    stodge said:

    My biggest problem is when those campaigning still use examples such as Ferguson, where there was no police injustice.

    There may have been no "police injustice" as you put it but Fetguson wasn't wholly about it. It was about a community where relations between the Police and people had broken down. The DOJ report into the procedures and culture existing at the Ferguson PD made pretty damning reading and indeed the town as a whole subsisted on the revenue generated by the PD in terms of fines.

    Yes, we need to uphold the law but "policing by consent" is a valid term and elates to how the Police and community co-exist.

    There is no may about it when it comes to the incident in Ferguson. The story that set off all the riots was wholly untrue. Man robbed a store, police caught up with him, man charged at police and tried to take officers gun and turn it on him, man was shot in self defence.

    That is why those protesting need to be careful and stick to fscts. There are plenty of examples of the police behaving badly, but I do keep hearing certain more high profile incidents (which have since been found to be untrue after investigation and court trials) trotted out.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    stodge said:

    My biggest problem is when those campaigning still use examples such as Ferguson, where there was no police injustice.

    There may have been no "police injustice" as you put it but Fetguson wasn't wholly about it. It was about a community where relations between the Police and people had broken down. The DOJ report into the procedures and culture existing at the Ferguson PD made pretty damning reading and indeed the town as a whole subsisted on the revenue generated by the PD in terms of fines.

    Yes, we need to uphold the law but "policing by consent" is a valid term and elates to how the Police and community co-exist.

    There is no may about it when it comes to the incident in Ferguson. The story that set off all the riots was wholly untrue. Man robbed a store, police caught up with him, man charged at police and tried to take officers gun and turn it on him, man was shot in self defence.

    That is why those protesting need to be careful and stick to fscts. There are plenty of examples of the police behaving badly, but I do keep hearing certain more high profile incidents (which have since been found to be untrue after investigation and court trials) trotted out.
    Facts arent important when you've got a grievance to peddle.
  • kle4 said:

    Hmm, a rather obvious one appears to be missing from the list.
    17 May 1983
  • The Today programme is poised to launch a daily podcast aimed at younger listeners, in the wake of criticism from Ofcom that the BBC is too focused on older audiences.
    The first episode of Beyond Today will be available on Monday. It has a separate young production and presenting team dominated by women and with as many people from ethnic minorities as men.

    I fear the BBC don’t really understand why YouTuber and twitchers have become so popular. Hint, it isn’t about putting in place quotas of women and ethnic minorities as presenters.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Off-topic:

    On a walk the other day, I came across an old school that had a beautiful engraving outside called: "Time Rewarding Industry and Punishing Sloth".

    Does anyone have a contact number for time, as I've been rather busy and haven't had much reward ... ;)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910


    There is no may about it when it comes to the incident in Ferguson. The story that set off all the riots was wholly untrue. Man robbed a store, police caught up with him, man charged at police and tried to take officers gun and turn it on him, man was shot in self defence.

    That is why those protesting need to be careful and stick to fscts. There are plenty of examples of the police behaving badly, but I do keep hearing certain more high profile incidents (which have since been found to be untrue after investigation and court trials) trotted out.

    I put it to you that had Police-community relations in Ferguson been better and had there not been a climate of racial discrimination as highlighted in the DOJ report, the response to the perceived injustice would have been very different.

    People chose not to trust the Ferguson PD account of what transpired because of a prevailing distrust of the Police and chose to believe the strongly anti-Police version of events because it chimed with their own (or if not their own then those they knew) experience.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,153
    edited October 2018
    stodge said:


    There is no may about it when it comes to the incident in Ferguson. The story that set off all the riots was wholly untrue. Man robbed a store, police caught up with him, man charged at police and tried to take officers gun and turn it on him, man was shot in self defence.

    That is why those protesting need to be careful and stick to fscts. There are plenty of examples of the police behaving badly, but I do keep hearing certain more high profile incidents (which have since been found to be untrue after investigation and court trials) trotted out.

    I put it to you that had Police-community relations in Ferguson been better and had there not been a climate of racial discrimination as highlighted in the DOJ report, the response to the perceived injustice would have been very different.

    People chose not to trust the Ferguson PD account of what transpired because of a prevailing distrust of the Police and chose to believe the strongly anti-Police version of events because it chimed with their own (or if not their own then those they knew) experience.

    I am talking about those campaigners / media to this day who still mention the likes of the Michael Brown case in the context of police wrongdoing. It is as bad as trump false claims that whip up the extremist racist nutter elements.

    When it comes to Michael brown there is this no doubt that the police acted properly. And as I say some that isn’t the only high profile case that is continually held up as an example, which have been investigated / tried and found to be lawful.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Off-topic:

    On a walk the other day, I came across an old school that had a beautiful engraving outside called: "Time Rewarding Industry and Punishing Sloth".

    Does anyone have a contact number for time, as I've been rather busy and haven't had much reward ... ;)

    I'm afraid not. Time waits for no man.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Trump got up close to white supremacists - empowered them, spoke their language, called them good people. This week they have tried to assasinate a series of leading Democrats and managed to slaughter a number of entirely innocent Jews. That’s where the President has taken America.

    You missed the attmepted massacre at a black church as well.

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/26/us/kentucky-kroger-shooting/index.html

    He shot up a shop instead when he failed to get in.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910


    I am talking about those campaigners / media to this day who still mention the likes of the Michael Brown case in the context of police wrongdoing. It is as bad as trump false claims that whip up the extremist racist nutter elements.

    When it comes to Michael brown there is this no doubt that the police acted properly. And as I say some that isn’t the only high profile case that is continually held up as an example, which have been investigated / tried and found to be lawful.

    Hang on, we're arguing across each other. You are citing the Michael Brown case (reasonably) as an example of how campaigners misrepresent an incident to bolster an argument.

    I'm saying all this "fake news" nonsense from both sides masks the issue of Police-community relations and the breakdown of such in some parts of America and the perception among some black people the Police actively discriminates against them. That's an argument and an issue that needs to be addressed but all some seem to be interested in is shouting about whose news is the more "fake" and trying to make a cheap political point.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    stodge said:

    My biggest problem is when those campaigning still use examples such as Ferguson, where there was no police injustice.

    There may have been no "police injustice" as you put it but Fetguson wasn't wholly about it. It was about a community where relations between the Police and people had broken down. The DOJ report into the procedures and culture existing at the Ferguson PD made pretty damning reading and indeed the town as a whole subsisted on the revenue generated by the PD in terms of fines.

    Yes, we need to uphold the law but "policing by consent" is a valid term and elates to how the Police and community co-exist.

    There is no may about it when it comes to the incident in Ferguson. The story that set off all the riots was wholly untrue. Man robbed a store, police caught up with him, man charged at police and tried to take officers gun and turn it on him, man was shot in self defence.

    While the "hands up, don't shoot" was not backed up by grand jury testimony neither was the police account

    The testimony of the shooting officer in question was... a little strange and not wholly backed up by eye witnesses.

    Also the police description of the shooting was not consistent with Wilson's testimony.
  • ydoethur said:

    Off-topic:

    On a walk the other day, I came across an old school that had a beautiful engraving outside called: "Time Rewarding Industry and Punishing Sloth".

    Does anyone have a contact number for time, as I've been rather busy and haven't had much reward ... ;)

    I'm afraid not. Time waits for no man.
    "Time is the fire in which we burn!" - Dr Soran.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    @thescreamingeagles The Embassy Manor Top if you are anywhere near the South Yorkshire homeland
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Off-topic:

    On a walk the other day, I came across an old school that had a beautiful engraving outside called: "Time Rewarding Industry and Punishing Sloth".

    Does anyone have a contact number for time, as I've been rather busy and haven't had much reward ... ;)

    I'm afraid not. Time waits for no man.
    "Time is the fire in which we burn!" - Dr Soran.
    Shame our puns aren't so hot tonight.
  • Pulpstar said:

    @thescreamingeagles The Embassy Manor Top if you are anywhere near the South Yorkshire homeland

    Manor Top's a bit too working class for me

    Am knackered tonight, have guests visiting tomorrow so have been prepping for that.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Off-topic:

    On a walk the other day, I came across an old school that had a beautiful engraving outside called: "Time Rewarding Industry and Punishing Sloth".

    Does anyone have a contact number for time, as I've been rather busy and haven't had much reward ... ;)

    I'm afraid not. Time waits for no man.
    "Time is the fire in which we burn!" - Dr Soran.
    Shame our puns aren't so hot tonight.
    Thyme is the byre in which tree fern
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,297
    edited October 2018

    MattW said:

    I was a keen small scale moderately successful spread better for a bit.

    Then 8 June 2018 happened, and I did not do as well as Mike !

    What happened on 8 June 2018?
    No idea, but on 29 October 2018 my iPad imposed a typo. Yanks always did like bigger numbers.
  • On topic, good bet I think.

    Off topic who could have foreseen Trump describing people who chanted 'Jews will not replace us' as very fine people would give succour to them.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    To lighten the mood a bit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/26/brexit-change-clocks-european-time-brexit-march-2019

    Am I underestimating him or is he being entirely serious? Is the Guardian resorting to clickbait? I particularly enjoyed this belter:

    'But as with so much to do with solving our European dilemmas, obstacles could come from two directions. First, the French. If Britain moved to Central European Time, there is nothing to stop French leader Emmanuel Macron using Juncker’s new law to fix France permanently on its summer time – keeping the French with their one-hour lead, and once again thwarting the British.'

    They'd still be behind Moscow, Beijing and Tokyo though. Not to mention those eternally one step ahead New Zealanders.
  • Pic on Twitter of a massive fire in the LC car park - looks very bad indeed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,747
    edited October 2018
    The owners take off from the pitch to fly to London after matches. Almost certainly on board. It went up in flames.

    Seriously bad news.

    https://twitter.com/zaghumhashmee/status/1056273040080883713?s=19
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited October 2018
    Foxy said:

    The owners take off from the pitch to fly to London after matches. Almost certainly on board. It went up in flames.

    Seriously bad news.

    https://twitter.com/zaghumhashmee/status/1056273040080883713?s=19
    Holy fuck sticks, from Sky Sports News.

    https://twitter.com/zaghumhashmee/status/1056273929763983360
  • Rob Dorsett says it is hard to see how anyone survived that accident.
  • Good on the sport reporting from Rob Dorsett on SSN, but the footage of the aftermath of this accident looks dreadful.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Foxy said:

    The owners take off from the pitch to fly to London after matches. Almost certainly on board. It went up in flames.

    Seriously bad news.

    https://twitter.com/zaghumhashmee/status/1056273040080883713?s=19
    Could well be dreadful, family involved IIRC. All sorts of repercussions.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Just read this in earlier Thread

    Mike Smithson said:
    'Heath's Tories at GE1970 hold a unique record. This was the only occasion in recent times when a party with a working Commons majority has been replaced by the main opposition party with a working majority. With all other changes of power the outgoing government had lost its working majority (1951) or didn't have one (1997), or else the incoming government didn't have a working majority (1964 & 2010) '

    Attlee's outgoing Government in October 1951 had not lost its majority - indeed it still retained the 6 seat majority won in February 1950. It had become a very tired administration , but there was no reason for Attlee to have called an election at that time. From a Labour perspective, it was a disastrous decision and perhaps it is surprising that Attlee was not seriously challenged in the aftermath. Apparently he had believed that the popularity of the Festival of Britain that summer would enhance Labour's prospects significantly.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856

    Foxy said:

    The owners take off from the pitch to fly to London after matches. Almost certainly on board. It went up in flames.

    Seriously bad news.

    https://twitter.com/zaghumhashmee/status/1056273040080883713?s=19
    Could well be dreadful, family involved IIRC. All sorts of repercussions.
    Not quite sure what you mean there.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Foxy said:

    The owners take off from the pitch to fly to London after matches. Almost certainly on board. It went up in flames.

    Seriously bad news.

    https://twitter.com/zaghumhashmee/status/1056273040080883713?s=19
    Could well be dreadful, family involved IIRC. All sorts of repercussions.
    Not quite sure what you mean there.
    Leicester City's chairman is also a kingpin in a number of enterprises, in Britain, Thailand and elsewhere. His sons are involved in his businesses.
  • justin124 said:

    Just read this in earlier Thread

    Mike Smithson said:
    'Heath's Tories at GE1970 hold a unique record. This was the only occasion in recent times when a party with a working Commons majority has been replaced by the main opposition party with a working majority. With all other changes of power the outgoing government had lost its working majority (1951) or didn't have one (1997), or else the incoming government didn't have a working majority (1964 & 2010) '

    Attlee's outgoing Government in October 1951 had not lost its majority - indeed it still retained the 6 seat majority won in February 1950. It had become a very tired administration , but there was no reason for Attlee to have called an election at that time. From a Labour perspective, it was a disastrous decision and perhaps it is surprising that Attlee was not seriously challenged in the aftermath. Apparently he had believed that the popularity of the Festival of Britain that summer would enhance Labour's prospects significantly.

    The key words in Mike's post was 'working majority' not 'majority' at various points due to deaths/illness Labour lost its working majority.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited October 2018
    justin124 said:

    Just read this in earlier Thread

    Mike Smithson said:
    'Heath's Tories at GE1970 hold a unique record. This was the only occasion in recent times when a party with a working Commons majority has been replaced by the main opposition party with a working majority. With all other changes of power the outgoing government had lost its working majority (1951) or didn't have one (1997), or else the incoming government didn't have a working majority (1964 & 2010) '

    Attlee's outgoing Government in October 1951 had not lost its majority - indeed it still retained the 6 seat majority won in February 1950. It had become a very tired administration , but there was no reason for Attlee to have called an election at that time. From a Labour perspective, it was a disastrous decision and perhaps it is surprising that Attlee was not seriously challenged in the aftermath. Apparently he had believed that the popularity of the Festival of Britain that summer would enhance Labour's prospects significantly.

    It had not got a 'working' majority. I think OGH's comment was a reference to the massive loss of seats it suffered in 1950, when it lost the huge three-figure majority it had enjoyed.

    Wilson went from having a majority of 96 in 1966 to conceding a majority of 30 in 1970. That's the only time since 1906 that there has been such a dramatic reversal, there never having been off the top of my head a time when a government with an overall majority of more than ten conceded an overall majority of 10 or more to the opposition.*

    Reading newspaper reports of the time as part of my MA was instructive. The sense of shock was palpable and the comparisons to Truman widespread.

    *Edit - I suppose in theory 1945 was also an exception. It was the only time since 1906 that a three figure majority one way switched to be a three figure majority the other way. Everyone ignores it however because it was so extraordinary in every way. After all, the Opposition had been in government only a few weeks before.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    justin124 said:

    Just read this in earlier Thread

    Mike Smithson said:
    'Heath's Tories at GE1970 hold a unique record. This was the only occasion in recent times when a party with a working Commons majority has been replaced by the main opposition party with a working majority. With all other changes of power the outgoing government had lost its working majority (1951) or didn't have one (1997), or else the incoming government didn't have a working majority (1964 & 2010) '

    Attlee's outgoing Government in October 1951 had not lost its majority - indeed it still retained the 6 seat majority won in February 1950. It had become a very tired administration , but there was no reason for Attlee to have called an election at that time. From a Labour perspective, it was a disastrous decision and perhaps it is surprising that Attlee was not seriously challenged in the aftermath. Apparently he had believed that the popularity of the Festival of Britain that summer would enhance Labour's prospects significantly.

    Labour did win the popular vote and increased their vote share in 1951, yet somehow FPTP turned this into a Conservative majority of 17.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2018
    Enmid:

    CDU/CSU 24%
    Greens 20%
    AfD 16%
    SPD 15%
    FDP 10%
    Linke 10%
    Others 5%


    Forsa:

    CDU/CSU 26%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 14%
    AfD 14%
    Linke 10%
    FDP 9%
    Others 6%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    AndyJS said:

    Forsa:

    CDU/CSU 26%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 14%
    AfD 14%
    Linke 10%
    FDP 9%
    Others 6%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's got mess written all over it...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    spudgfsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    Forsa:

    CDU/CSU 26%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 14%
    AfD 14%
    Linke 10%
    FDP 9%
    Others 6%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's got mess written all over it...
    Another poll was released just as I was posting that one. I've edited the post to include it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited October 2018
    dodrade said:

    justin124 said:

    Just read this in earlier Thread

    Mike Smithson said:
    'Heath's Tories at GE1970 hold a unique record. This was the only occasion in recent times when a party with a working Commons majority has been replaced by the main opposition party with a working majority. With all other changes of power the outgoing government had lost its working majority (1951) or didn't have one (1997), or else the incoming government didn't have a working majority (1964 & 2010) '

    Attlee's outgoing Government in October 1951 had not lost its majority - indeed it still retained the 6 seat majority won in February 1950. It had become a very tired administration , but there was no reason for Attlee to have called an election at that time. From a Labour perspective, it was a disastrous decision and perhaps it is surprising that Attlee was not seriously challenged in the aftermath. Apparently he had believed that the popularity of the Festival of Britain that summer would enhance Labour's prospects significantly.

    Labour did win the popular vote and increased their vote share in 1951, yet somehow FPTP turned this into a Conservative majority of 17.
    And a lack of Liberal candidates in key target seats - their voters (who mostly still voted) split 60/40 to the Tories and proved crucial.

    That does however tend to suggest Labour were, contrary to their rhetoric, seen as more divisive and less mainstream by centrist voters.

    Yet, ironically, 1951 remains their highest ever share of the popular vote.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    AndyJS said:

    spudgfsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    Forsa:

    CDU/CSU 26%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 14%
    AfD 14%
    Linke 10%
    FDP 9%
    Others 6%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's got mess written all over it...
    Another poll was released just as I was posting that one. I've edited the post to include it.
    if either happened there'd be months of coalition building. could a CDU/CSU Green coalition work?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    .
    spudgfsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    spudgfsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    Forsa:

    CDU/CSU 26%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 14%
    AfD 14%
    Linke 10%
    FDP 9%
    Others 6%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's got mess written all over it...
    Another poll was released just as I was posting that one. I've edited the post to include it.
    if either happened there'd be months of coalition building. could a CDU/CSU Green coalition work?
    I don't think we can count the CSU in with the CDU for much longer. I wouldn't be surprised if the CSU ran nationally and beat the CDU.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    spudgfsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    spudgfsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    Forsa:

    CDU/CSU 26%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 14%
    AfD 14%
    Linke 10%
    FDP 9%
    Others 6%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's got mess written all over it...
    Another poll was released just as I was posting that one. I've edited the post to include it.
    if either happened there'd be months of coalition building. could a CDU/CSU Green coalition work?
    Would they go into coalition with CDU/CDU when that was what destroyed the SPD?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Trump got up close to white supremacists - empowered them, spoke their language, called them good people. This week they have tried to assasinate a series of leading Democrats and managed to slaughter a number of entirely innocent Jews. That’s where the President has taken America.

    It’s heartbreaking.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    spudgfsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    spudgfsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    Forsa:

    CDU/CSU 26%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 14%
    AfD 14%
    Linke 10%
    FDP 9%
    Others 6%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's got mess written all over it...
    Another poll was released just as I was posting that one. I've edited the post to include it.
    if either happened there'd be months of coalition building. could a CDU/CSU Green coalition work?
    Would they go into coalition with CDU/CDU when that was what destroyed the SPD?
    I couldn't see the UK greens going into coalition with the tories but I don't know enough about German Party rivalries to know whether it'd actually happen.

    with a result anywhere near the polling there'd be no viable coalition
  • I did warn Kippers this is where they were headed, but no they prefered to attack the messenger.

    https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1056166691619659777
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Guido’s latest suggests Hain is rooked.

    Perhaps he can do his time on Robben Island.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    TGOHF said:

    Guido’s latest suggests Hain is rooked.

    Perhaps he can do his time on Robben Island.

    it's more that the telegraph editor is in trouble for breaching the injunction

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1056286934878879745
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    dodrade said:

    justin124 said:

    Just read this in earlier Thread

    Mike Smithson said:
    'Heath's Tories at GE1970 hold a unique record. This was the only occasion in recent times when a party with a working Commons majority has been replaced by the main opposition party with a working majority. With all other changes of power the outgoing government had lost its working majority (1951) or didn't have one (1997), or else the incoming government didn't have a working majority (1964 & 2010) '

    Attlee's outgoing Government in October 1951 had not lost its majority - indeed it still retained the 6 seat majority won in February 1950. It had become a very tired administration , but there was no reason for Attlee to have called an election at that time. From a Labour perspective, it was a disastrous decision and perhaps it is surprising that Attlee was not seriously challenged in the aftermath. Apparently he had believed that the popularity of the Festival of Britain that summer would enhance Labour's prospects significantly.

    Labour did win the popular vote and increased their vote share in 1951, yet somehow FPTP turned this into a Conservative majority of 17.
    And a lack of Liberal candidates in key target seats - their voters (who mostly still voted) split 60/40 to the Tories and proved crucial.

    That does however tend to suggest Labour were, contrary to their rhetoric, seen as more divisive and less mainstream by centrist voters.

    Yet, ironically, 1951 remains their highest ever share of the popular vote.
    Indeed - though both the Labour and Tory shares were artificially high on account of the Liberals having contested a mere 109 seats!
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Extremist language leads to extremist action. We can expect more extremism here. As in the USA, far too many on the right are far too relaxed about the extremists they are nourishing and giving cover to.

    And on the left.

    It's not the left that are shooting and bombing people in the US.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    Before that happened and shortly after the Aurora shooting I did wonder what it would take for the US to change gun laws. I thought a "Dunblane" might do it, God forbid it obviously, but I was wrong. Maybe a "Beslan" would do it? Or maybe there is no upper limit to the violence the US will accept as a price for the second ammendment.

    There were about 500 people shot in the Las Vegas shooting last year, 59 dead, and it hasn't made a blind bit of difference. Absolute carnage and it didn't even stick in the news for very long, and we still have little idea about why it happened.

    The gun "debate" now is incomprehensible to me, reality barely seems to matter, it has become a quasi-religious argument about the doctrine handed down by the Founding Fathers.

    America is simultaneously a very impressive and very worrying country. I don't see things getting better anytime soon.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF said:

    Guido’s latest suggests Hain is rooked.

    Perhaps he can do his time on Robben Island.

    it's more that the telegraph editor is in trouble for breaching the injunction

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1056286934878879745
    Not sure that's how Harry's 'Tory' mind works.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    America didn’t decide any such thing.

    A significant proportion of America decided that owning guns was more important than preventing thousands of people getting shot every year.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited October 2018
    What’s the collective noun for a group of frauds ?

    Makes a nice campaign poster mind you..

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1056289435422261249?s=21
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    TGOHF said:

    What’s the collective noun for a group of frauds ?

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1056289435422261249?s=21

    That picture is going to look good in the history books.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Vote remain. Vote Novichok.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    Road deaths per annum:

    UK - 1800
    US - 37,000

    It isn't just about guns. The US is an outlier to other western countries in all sorts of ways.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300

    When in doubt, fall back on the old 'arm the victims' pish.

    https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1056223219601018885

    Bet there's lots of NRA funded Reps sending their prayers today.

    Trump is a fucking idiot.
    But that is not exactly news.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    spudgfsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    spudgfsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    Forsa:

    CDU/CSU 26%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 14%
    AfD 14%
    Linke 10%
    FDP 9%
    Others 6%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's got mess written all over it...
    Another poll was released just as I was posting that one. I've edited the post to include it.
    if either happened there'd be months of coalition building. could a CDU/CSU Green coalition work?
    I think it could work, especially after Merkel closed down nuclear power in Germany.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Nigelb said:

    When in doubt, fall back on the old 'arm the victims' pish.

    https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1056223219601018885

    Bet there's lots of NRA funded Reps sending their prayers today.

    Trump is a fucking idiot.
    But that is not exactly news.
    Au contraire. He is not an idiot. He knows exactly what he is doing.
  • Road deaths per annum:

    UK - 1800
    US - 37,000

    It isn't just about guns. The US is an outlier to other western countries in all sorts of ways.

    For road deaths it’s us that is the outlier: most countries have much more dangerous roads.

    I think it’s the side effect of all those traffic jams.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF said:

    Guido’s latest suggests Hain is rooked.

    Perhaps he can do his time on Robben Island.

    it's more that the telegraph editor is in trouble for breaching the injunction

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1056286934878879745
    Not sure that's how Harry's 'Tory' mind works.
    They are both in trouble. And the Telegraph’s lawyers must have their heads in their hands ......
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    rpjs said:

    Extremist language leads to extremist action. We can expect more extremism here. As in the USA, far too many on the right are far too relaxed about the extremists they are nourishing and giving cover to.

    And on the left.

    It's not the left that are shooting and bombing people in the US.
    Except they are.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Congressional_baseball_shooting
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856

    Road deaths per annum:

    UK - 1800
    US - 37,000

    It isn't just about guns. The US is an outlier to other western countries in all sorts of ways.

    For road deaths it’s us that is the outlier: most countries have much more dangerous roads.

    I think it’s the side effect of all those traffic jams.
    Amongst the highly developed economies I can't see any country close to the US. New Zealand is the nearest I think.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    When in doubt, fall back on the old 'arm the victims' pish.

    https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1056223219601018885

    Bet there's lots of NRA funded Reps sending their prayers today.

    He shot three policemen. They were armed.

    If only they had been more heavily armed....
    Too true.
This discussion has been closed.