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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB would struggle to win a snap election with 50% of GE2017 L

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  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    HYUFD said:

    Loyal MPs to the PM are believed to have sent 8 letters demanding a leadership vote disguised as rebels in a 'cunning plan' by Mayites, the idea being to withdraw some of the decoys if the 48 letters needed to trigger a ballot is reached, creating a delay and alerting the whips to the danger.

    Rebel MPs meanwhile have a counter plot to deluge Sir Graham Brady with a dozen letters to ensure a confidence vote cannot be stopped


    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/no10-planted-decoy-letters-demanding-pm-confidence-vote-tories-claim-a3969371.html?amp

    This would be funny were it not so important.

    What'd be even funnier is if some of these are double agents. I'm imagining lots of letters being handed over in a Chris-Tarrant-with-cheque-but-we-don't-want-to-give-you-that style.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    This story has be nonsense. its just has to be another scare story. I do NOT believe it


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45958713

    The end of the world is nigh.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Let battle commence

    EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

    What sanctions does the EU have against Italy if they go ahead with the budget?
    Investors only buy Italian government debt because it is implicitly guaranteed by the ECB.
    If the ECB removes the guarantee wouldn't it ultimately fall out in the currency though ?
    Yes.

    And in an entirely unpleasant way. How would Italy import food or fuel?
    on the other hand how does the EU guarantee its banking system ? if Italy is let go investors would lose faith in the Euro and then the dominoes line up Greece, Spain, Portugal France turmoil for the rEurozone
    The EU can guarantee its banking system by the ECB making clear it will make banks whole on interbank losses.

    which is of course a confidence call, If the ECB just taken a huge hit on Target2 how confident would you be ?
    Target2 is not simply an Italian liability to the German Government. There is a corresponding liability from the German Government to German Commercial banks. Thus if Italy defaults, the liability becomes one of the German Government. Oops.
    No.

    German banks will continue to have balances at the ECB they will be able to withdraw at will. In what circumstances do you think the ECB would fail to honour obligations, given it can print money on demand.
    The ECB cannot ‘print money on demand’ - in fact, no central bank can do that. Central banks have the ability to influence the creation of money by commercial banks. For example, QE does not involve the creation of money by the central banks. I am pretty sure that the monetisation of debt by the ECB is prohibited by the EU treaty - which is why Target 2 has turned into an illegal workaround for fiscal transfers within the Eurozone.

    The full consequences of Target 2 are contained in this paper:

    http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/19674/1/Target 2 v1.pdf
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always going to be very difficult to judge. It was definitely a hell of a lot of people. My jaw was already dropping when I arrived at Victoria station to find that there were already several hundred people in Brexit related regalia milling around. There was a steady stream of people from the station to Hyde Park that was large enough to constitute a pretty decent demonstration in its own right. About half way there was a large contingent, well over a thousand, gathering. I don't know who they were, but obviously some organisation that was going on bloc.

    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    How could I guess that Davies, Quince and Milton are all Brexiteers. I'm sure the thought that Bercow will play an important role in prevenging the Government muzzling the Commons on a meaningful vote never entered their pretty little heads.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,507

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always going to be very difficult to judge. It was definitely a hell of a lot of people. My jaw was already dropping when I arrived at Victoria station to find that there were already several hundred people in Brexit related regalia milling around. There was a steady stream of people from the station to Hyde Park that was large enough to constitute a pretty decent demonstration in its own right. About half way there was a large contingent, well over a thousand, gathering. I don't know who they were, but obviously some organisation that was going on bloc.

    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.
    Do you need me to post the tweets where the organisers said 670k for you?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    We're all going to d ...... oh wait, it's over, never mind.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    kjh said:

    [deleted]

    [deleted]
    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always going to be very difficult to judge. It was definitely a hell of a lot of people. My jaw was already dropping when I arrived at Victoria station to find that there were already several hundred people in Brexit related regalia milling around. There was a steady stream of people from the station to Hyde Park that was large enough to constitute a pretty decent demonstration in its own right. About half way there was a large contingent, well over a thousand, gathering. I don't know who they were, but obviously some organisation that was going on bloc.

    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.
    BBC R4 said 670,000.

    If you doubt the BBC, use appropriate technology, and I'm sure it exists, to count the total number of people passing the reference point in the Youtube time lapse photos/video. Don't do it by hand or it'll take you over a week ...

    Or ask Google, Inc. They own Youtube and have ways to do all sorts of things with online files. So I'm sure they know.

    Joke heard on R4 ... 'We're doing Brexit by the book. Unfortunately the book is Lord of the Flies.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,507

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always going to be very difficult to judge. It was definitely a hell of a lot of people. My jaw was already dropping when I arrived at Victoria station to find that there were already several hundred people in Brexit related regalia milling around. There was a steady stream of people from the station to Hyde Park that was large enough to constitute a pretty decent demonstration in its own right. About half way there was a large contingent, well over a thousand, gathering. I don't know who they were, but obviously some organisation that was going on bloc.

    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.

    So, basically, it must be 700k because you were there and you were impressed.

    Ok.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always
    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.
    Do you need me to post the tweets where the organisers said 670k for you?
    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,507
    John_M said:

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always
    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.
    Do you need me to post the tweets where the organisers said 670k for you?
    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.
    I’m challenging the number because it seems to be being used as some sort of special mandate.
  • John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Dimitry said:

    All this talk of 48 letters. Mrs May only needs six letters from the DUP and ERG to arrive in the right order for her to get PURGED!

    If May wanted somewhere to test out her Brexit plans she could do this by gathering letters from LAB or a Tory.
  • I would be interested to see a study in how campaigns can shape election results. I have only done scant research but my impression is that we are assuming that certain outcomes are next to impossible because the polls say so at the present time but the reality is that campaigns can change a lot of public perceptions and politicians can be made and destroyed when under the public scrutiny that an election campaign brings.

    The Brexit referendum and the 2017 GE are strong examples of this. A month out from the Brexit referendum there was an Ipsos-Mori poll putting remain 18 points ahead, the bookies had remain at 1/6 and the markets suggested an 80% chance of remain. The campaign changed that situation dramatically and the result was one that conventional wisdom said was impossible a month earlier.

    The 2017 election saw an equally large swing, as Corbyn's strong campaign almost reined in a 15-20 point deficit, aided of course by May's unravelling.

    We know that Corbyn is a good campaigner but poor at the day job of LOTO, and we know that May is a dreadful campaigner. The press coverage of Corbyn is largely negative but campaign coverage is different with candidates free to express themselves (or not in May's case). The gap now is miniscule compared to 2017 and I could easily see Corbyn winning despite his poor polling at present.

    Likewise there is talk about how Remain would be certain to beat No Deal in an as yet hypothetical Referendum Mk 2, but its lead is smaller than it was at the start of the 2016 campaign, and the press coverage about No Deal has been universally negative. If whoever led a No Deal campaign could put across a positive vision and point out where Remain's predictions were wrong last time - and remain help by running Project Fear the Sequel - then again I can see No Deal winning the day despite current polling.

  • For a moment I thought we were one away from Sir Graham Brady making an announcement.

    https://twitter.com/StandUp4Brexit/status/1054799552694362112
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited October 2018
    AndyJS said:

    This story has be nonsense. its just has to be another scare story. I do NOT believe it


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45958713

    The end of the world is nigh.
    We can just deny Europe the drugs they need or tell them to f off. We can make life just as difficult if not more so than thwe can for us. Tell the Germans, the Italians, the Spaniards and so on and so forth that tax on their cars just rose 50%. They don't like it up em Capt Mannering...

    I am a Remainer and still am, but Europe needs to show some common sense./
  • This has been timed to embarrass shagger.

    Boris Johnson's trip to Afghanistan - which meant he missed the vote on expanding Heathrow - cost more than £26,000.

    Figures released by the Foreign Office show that the two-day visit in June cost a total of £26,848 - £7,482 for the former foreign secretary and £19,366 for three officials.


    The cost for the officials was revealed in August, but until now the total for Mr Johnson had not been disclosed.

    https://news.sky.com/story/full-cost-of-trip-which-saw-boris-johnson-miss-heathrow-vote-revealed-11533511
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    John_M said:

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always
    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.
    Do you need me to post the tweets where the organisers said 670k for you?
    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.
    I’m challenging the number because it seems to be being used as some sort of special mandate.
    So Casino is as obsessed with number of crowds as Trump. Didn't do much for his credibility either.
  • Anazina said:
    Was typo in the original tweet.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's brother Piers calls politicians on the 'Goldman Sachs Super Rich Wall Street' People's Vote March as complicit in the '4th Reich'.

    He also called Bernie Sanders, the 'Progressive' Jewish US Senator 'the single greatest fake progressive double agent for Wall Street' and a 'deluded, deranged dud' who 'took Clinton's 30 pieces of silver'

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/the-londoner-corbyns-brothers-antisemitic-rant-a3969016.html?amp

    There are plenty of people, like PIers COrbyn and Chris Williamson, who demonstrate to any doubters that in fact there are people who would be much worse as Labour leader than Jeremy.
    Yes, Jeremy is the sanest Corbyn brother
    Jezza dambed by faint praise there... :D
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    John_M said:

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always
    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.
    Do you need me to post the tweets where the organisers said 670k for you?
    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.
    I’m challenging the number because it seems to be being used as some sort of special mandate.
    How large would the number have to be to qualify as a special mandate?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Donald been playing with the nuclear codes? :D
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    edited October 2018
    As a beleaguered commuter from north Manchester into the city centre, I'm hoping the delays to United games, with a knock on effect to premier league and champions league global television schedules will have more impact on sorting out the clueless fuckwittery at Transport for Greater Manchester which is causing all this chaos through ill-conceived improvement schemes and clashing works schedules, than being able to ignore disgruntled local taxpayers like me.

    Talking of clueless fuckwits, ultimately in charge of TfGM is Andy Burnham....
  • Is Morris Dancer here ?

    I had the following thought regarding trade treaties:

    If you could choose between a bad trade treaty next year and a good trade treaty in five years time which would you prefer ?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,862
    That's astonishingly inept. I'm no great tactician, but getting to the ground - your home ground - on time is a fairly straightforward element to get right. To be stuck in traffic once might be seen as unlucky; twice is just useless.
    This is clearly a man who does not learn from his mistakes.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    AndyJS said:

    This story has be nonsense. its just has to be another scare story. I do NOT believe it


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45958713

    The end of the world is nigh.
    We can just deny Europe the drugs they need or tell them to f off. We can make life just as difficult if not more so than thwe can for us. Tell the Germans, the Italians, the Spaniards and so on and so forth that tax on their cars just rose 50%. They don't like it up em Capt Mannering...

    I am a Remainer and still am, but Europe needs to show some common sense./
    Why? It wasn't the EU who voted the UK out of Europe. Then why are we trying to get 27 other countries to change their accepted laws, treaties and regulations - er! little hint - it doesn't work that way, and the only ones who don't understand that, is our government and unfortunately, too many people in the UK...
  • Re non EU wine: I’m drinking a very nice Asian wine at the moment.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Cookie said:

    That's astonishingly inept. I'm no great tactician, but getting to the ground - your home ground - on time is a fairly straightforward element to get right. To be stuck in traffic once might be seen as unlucky; twice is just useless.
    This is clearly a man who does not learn from his mistakes.
    See my post below. Anyone who lives, works or has other business in Gridlock City these days is persistently late for anything al the time now...

    Manchester - our second city but effectively now closed for business.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    John_M said:

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always
    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.
    Do you need me to post the tweets where the organisers said 670k for you?
    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.
    I’m challenging the number because it seems to be being used as some sort of special mandate.
    How large would the number have to be to qualify as a special mandate?
    17,410,743
  • Cookie said:

    That's astonishingly inept. I'm no great tactician, but getting to the ground - your home ground - on time is a fairly straightforward element to get right. To be stuck in traffic once might be seen as unlucky; twice is just useless.
    This is clearly a man who does not learn from his mistakes.
    See my post below. Anyone who lives, works or has other business in Gridlock City these days is persistently late for anything al the time now...

    Manchester - our second city but effectively now closed for business.
    I thought Glasgow was our second city?
  • You're meant to "park the bus" after the game starts, not before.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Cookie said:

    That's astonishingly inept. I'm no great tactician, but getting to the ground - your home ground - on time is a fairly straightforward element to get right. To be stuck in traffic once might be seen as unlucky; twice is just useless.
    This is clearly a man who does not learn from his mistakes.
    See my post below. Anyone who lives, works or has other business in Gridlock City these days is persistently late for anything al the time now...

    Manchester - our second city but effectively now closed for business.
    I thought Glasgow was our second city?
    I don't think Birmingham or Edinburgh would be entirely happy at not being in this discussion.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    This has been timed to embarrass shagger.

    Boris Johnson's trip to Afghanistan - which meant he missed the vote on expanding Heathrow - cost more than £26,000.

    Figures released by the Foreign Office show that the two-day visit in June cost a total of £26,848 - £7,482 for the former foreign secretary and £19,366 for three officials.


    The cost for the officials was revealed in August, but until now the total for Mr Johnson had not been disclosed.

    https://news.sky.com/story/full-cost-of-trip-which-saw-boris-johnson-miss-heathrow-vote-revealed-11533511

    If you think the Foreign Office civil service were going to allow Boris to skive off on his own and cause mayhem in Afghanistan and to our allies ...
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Cookie said:

    That's astonishingly inept. I'm no great tactician, but getting to the ground - your home ground - on time is a fairly straightforward element to get right. To be stuck in traffic once might be seen as unlucky; twice is just useless.
    This is clearly a man who does not learn from his mistakes.
    See my post below. Anyone who lives, works or has other business in Gridlock City these days is persistently late for anything al the time now...

    Manchester - our second city but effectively now closed for business.
    I thought Glasgow was our second city?
    Birmingham anyone?
  • Cookie said:

    That's astonishingly inept. I'm no great tactician, but getting to the ground - your home ground - on time is a fairly straightforward element to get right. To be stuck in traffic once might be seen as unlucky; twice is just useless.
    This is clearly a man who does not learn from his mistakes.
    See my post below. Anyone who lives, works or has other business in Gridlock City these days is persistently late for anything al the time now...

    Manchester - our second city but effectively now closed for business.
    Is why I use the train every work day into Manchester.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    OchEye said:

    This has been timed to embarrass shagger.

    Boris Johnson's trip to Afghanistan - which meant he missed the vote on expanding Heathrow - cost more than £26,000.

    Figures released by the Foreign Office show that the two-day visit in June cost a total of £26,848 - £7,482 for the former foreign secretary and £19,366 for three officials.


    The cost for the officials was revealed in August, but until now the total for Mr Johnson had not been disclosed.

    https://news.sky.com/story/full-cost-of-trip-which-saw-boris-johnson-miss-heathrow-vote-revealed-11533511

    If you think the Foreign Office civil service were going to allow Boris to skive off on his own and cause mayhem in Afghanistan and to our allies ...
    To be blunt, given how unpopular he apparently was it says quite a lot for their sense of duty that they brought him back.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Cookie said:

    That's astonishingly inept. I'm no great tactician, but getting to the ground - your home ground - on time is a fairly straightforward element to get right. To be stuck in traffic once might be seen as unlucky; twice is just useless.
    This is clearly a man who does not learn from his mistakes.
    See my post below. Anyone who lives, works or has other business in Gridlock City these days is persistently late for anything al the time now...

    Manchester - our second city but effectively now closed for business.
    Is why I use the train every work day into Manchester.
    Which station?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    There should also be inverted commas around "Tommy Robinson", since it refers to a Stephen Yaxley-Lennon who likes to call himself thus.

  • ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    That's astonishingly inept. I'm no great tactician, but getting to the ground - your home ground - on time is a fairly straightforward element to get right. To be stuck in traffic once might be seen as unlucky; twice is just useless.
    This is clearly a man who does not learn from his mistakes.
    See my post below. Anyone who lives, works or has other business in Gridlock City these days is persistently late for anything al the time now...

    Manchester - our second city but effectively now closed for business.
    Is why I use the train every work day into Manchester.
    Which station?
    Piccadilly.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always going to be very difficult to judge. It was definitely a hell of a lot of people. My jaw was already dropping when I arrived at Victoria station to find that there were already several hundred people in Brexit related regalia milling around. There was a steady stream of people from the station to Hyde Park that was large enough to constitute a pretty decent demonstration in its own right. About half way there was a large contingent, well over a thousand, gathering. I don't know who they were, but obviously some organisation that was going on bloc.

    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.

    So, basically, it must be 700k because you were there and you were impressed.

    Ok.
    So basically, it can't be 700k because you weren't there and you would rather it wasn't.

    Ok.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    OchEye said:

    AndyJS said:

    This story has be nonsense. its just has to be another scare story. I do NOT believe it


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45958713

    The end of the world is nigh.
    We can just deny Europe the drugs they need or tell them to f off. We can make life just as difficult if not more so than thwe can for us. Tell the Germans, the Italians, the Spaniards and so on and so forth that tax on their cars just rose 50%. They don't like it up em Capt Mannering...

    I am a Remainer and still am, but Europe needs to show some common sense./
    Why? It wasn't the EU who voted the UK out of Europe. Then why are we trying to get 27 other countries to change their accepted laws, treaties and regulations - er! little hint - it doesn't work that way, and the only ones who don't understand that, is our government and unfortunately, too many people in the UK...
    Unfortunately too many of the Tory nutjobs in Parliament have not realised this quite simple fact of life yet either.
  • stjohn said:

    Dimitry said:

    All this talk of 48 letters. Mrs May only needs six letters from the DUP and ERG to arrive in the right order for her to get PURGED!

    If May wanted somewhere to test out her Brexit plans she could do this by gathering letters from LAB or a Tory.
    But if the letters came from Green, Lib Dem, Plaid & SNP, she would be impregnable. Splendid!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,862

    Cookie said:

    That's astonishingly inept. I'm no great tactician, but getting to the ground - your home ground - on time is a fairly straightforward element to get right. To be stuck in traffic once might be seen as unlucky; twice is just useless.
    This is clearly a man who does not learn from his mistakes.
    See my post below. Anyone who lives, works or has other business in Gridlock City these days is persistently late for anything al the time now...

    Manchester - our second city but effectively now closed for business.
    On the other hand, Metrolink is getting towards a fairly workable system now - much better than it was five years ago.

    Basically there are roadworks around one fifth of the inner ring road. Why, given that, when playing at home, do they persist in meetign at a hotel in the city centre and then travelling out to Old Traffordalong with all the rush hour traffic? Why meet at a hotel in the city centre anyway? Why not meet at their training ground at Carrington - they'd be at Old TRafford in fifteen minutes from there? They're meeting in the centre of town because it's flashy to do so - sod the practicality. Utter berks.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    This has been timed to embarrass shagger.

    Boris Johnson's trip to Afghanistan - which meant he missed the vote on expanding Heathrow - cost more than £26,000.

    Figures released by the Foreign Office show that the two-day visit in June cost a total of £26,848 - £7,482 for the former foreign secretary and £19,366 for three officials.


    The cost for the officials was revealed in August, but until now the total for Mr Johnson had not been disclosed.

    https://news.sky.com/story/full-cost-of-trip-which-saw-boris-johnson-miss-heathrow-vote-revealed-11533511

    If you think the Foreign Office civil service were going to allow Boris to skive off on his own and cause mayhem in Afghanistan and to our allies ...
    To be blunt, given how unpopular he apparently was it says quite a lot for their sense of duty that they brought him back.
    Probably very tempted to open a door in the plane and introduce him to sky diving without a parachute....
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
  • Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    That's astonishingly inept. I'm no great tactician, but getting to the ground - your home ground - on time is a fairly straightforward element to get right. To be stuck in traffic once might be seen as unlucky; twice is just useless.
    This is clearly a man who does not learn from his mistakes.
    See my post below. Anyone who lives, works or has other business in Gridlock City these days is persistently late for anything al the time now...

    Manchester - our second city but effectively now closed for business.
    On the other hand, Metrolink is getting towards a fairly workable system now - much better than it was five years ago.

    There are 93 Metrolink stations, with another 6 or so on the upcomiong Trafford Park branch.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    edited October 2018

    Cookie said:

    That's astonishingly inept. I'm no great tactician, but getting to the ground - your home ground - on time is a fairly straightforward element to get right. To be stuck in traffic once might be seen as unlucky; twice is just useless.
    This is clearly a man who does not learn from his mistakes.
    See my post below. Anyone who lives, works or has other business in Gridlock City these days is persistently late for anything al the time now...

    Manchester - our second city but effectively now closed for business.
    I thought Glasgow was our second city?
    Only if you live in Scotland - and I'll just get my coat...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    John_M said:

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always
    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.
    Do you need me to post the tweets where the organisers said 670k for you?
    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.
    I’m challenging the number because it seems to be being used as some sort of special mandate.
    That doesn't seem to be a particularly objective or legitimate basis for challenging a number to me.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    If they believe that negotiating Brexit rather than abandoning it will be harmful to the UK, wouldn't encouraging Barnier to act in a way which increases the likelihood of it being abandoned be consistent with patriotism?
  • John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
  • kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    Thedred people in Brexit related regalia milling around. There was a steady stream of people from the station to Hyde Park that was large enough to constitute a pretty decent demonstration in its own right. About half way there was a large contingent, well over a thousand, gathering. I don't know who they were, but obviously some organisation that was going on bloc.

    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.

    So, basically, it must be 700k because you were there and you were impressed.

    Ok.
    So basically, it can't be 700k because you weren't there and you would rather it wasn't.

    Ok.
    Only me!

    People's Vote March in 2018 = 700,000 300,000
    People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,000

    :lol:
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    "Leavers are traitors". No truer words ever spoken on pb.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    On topic, I'm surprised OGH hasn't put in a graph showing Uncle Vince would be the only leader who could be PM, as per the LibDem flyers, handbills and posters of the good old days when they had over 50 MP's.....
  • John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    It doesn’t have to be either/or; it can be both...
  • John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Remainers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Barnier's little helpers.
    :innocent:
  • Chris_A said:

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    "Leavers are traitors". No truer words ever spoken on pb.
    All leavers?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Chris_A said:

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    "Leavers are traitors". No truer words ever spoken on pb.
    I think that is a Reckless analogy...
  • John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Remainers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Barnier's little helpers.
    :innocent:
    Must have been a different Sunil moaning last week about putting the Union ahead of Brexit.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Chris_A said:

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    "Leavers are traitors". No truer words ever spoken on pb.
    All leavers?
    Yes, every last one of them.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    Thedred people in Brexit related regalia milling around. There was a steady stream of people from the station to Hyde Park that was large enough to constitute a pretty decent demonstration in its own right. About half way there was a large contingent, well over a thousand, gathering. I don't know who they were, but obviously some organisation that was going on bloc.

    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.

    So, basically, it must be 700k because you were there and you were impressed.

    Ok.
    So basically, it can't be 700k because you weren't there and you would rather it wasn't.

    Ok.
    Only me!

    People's Vote March in 2018 = 700,000 300,000
    People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,000

    :lol:
    Sounds like my extrapolation last night was a bit off the mark - let's try again...

    People who attended 'Leave means Leave' rally in 2018 = 1,200
    People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,000

    People's Vote March in 2018 = 700,000 300,000
    People who would support a People's Vote (extrapolated) = 10,150,000,000 4,350,000,000

    To be fair, that's plausibly closer to the total population of the world, so seems legit.
  • John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Remainers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Barnier's little helpers.
    :innocent:
    Must have been a different Sunil moaning last week about putting the Union ahead of Brexit.
    Note: The subject TSE responds to the stimulus as predicted!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited October 2018

    Chris_A said:

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    "Leavers are traitors". No truer words ever spoken on pb.
    All leavers?
    Just the ones who said

    1) Leaving would be easy

    2) Said WTO was just Project Fear

    3) Say WTO will be good for the economy. (I think it was Robert who said those Leavers should be denied the vote for being so stupid).
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    edited October 2018
    On the subject of treason:

    Treason never prospers;
    what’s the reason?
    If it do prosper
    None dare call it treason.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,819

    kjh said:



    The organisers are saying 570,000. The higher estimates are from newspapers. The Countryside Alliance March had their rally in Hyde Park which meant that everyone gathered in one large open space which made them easy to count. I think we can safely say that the 400,000 figure for them is safe. It was also much more organised. I remember that not only were a great many coaches laid on, but that there was a system of lifts in place to get people to the pick up points for the coaches. So the organisers had a pretty good idea of what to expect.

    The People's Vote organisers were very obviously taken completely by surprise by the scale of people turning up. They were obviously only expecting a few tens of thousands - or they would probably have done exactly what the Countryside guys did.

    I don't think that at any point the crowd was all gathered in a single place. So it is always going to be very difficult to judge. It was definitely a hell of a lot of people. My jaw was already dropping when I arrived at Victoria station to find that there were already several hundred people in Brexit related regalia milling around. There was a steady stream of people from the station to Hyde Park that was large enough to constitute a pretty decent demonstration in its own right. About half way there was a large contingent, well over a thousand, gathering. I don't know who they were, but obviously some organisation that was going on bloc.

    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.

    So, basically, it must be 700k because you were there and you were impressed.

    Ok.
    So basically, it can't be 700k because you weren't there and you would rather it wasn't.

    Ok.
    CR you seem to be challenging the number based upon nothing whatsoever other than the fact that you don't like that it was so very big. Every time you do it, it just boosts the publicity for what was a damn big protest.

    It was clearly very impressive and that is all that matters.

    This is like Trump and his inauguration figures. It is desperate, but please carry on.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    edited October 2018

    kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    Thedred people in Brexit related regalia milling around. There was a steady stream of people from the station to Hyde Park that was large enough to constitute a pretty decent demonstration in its own right. About half way there was a large contingent, well over a thousand, gathering. I don't know who they were, but obviously some organisation that was going on bloc.

    I understand the skepticism because it does sound like a huge number, and with these things there is always a tendency for the numbers to be talked up. But I really think that 700,000 is a perfectly believable size for the number of participants.

    So, basically, it must be 700k because you were there and you were impressed.

    Ok.
    So basically, it can't be 700k because you weren't there and you would rather it wasn't.

    Ok.
    Only me!

    People's Vote March in 2018 = 700,000 300,000
    People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,000

    :lol:
    I think you meant.

    People's Vote March 20.10.18 = 700,000
    Leave Means Leave 20.10.18 = 1200
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Scott_P said:
    This is truly incredible news...she was previously in control?!

    #obviousjoke
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    ydoethur said:

    Chris_A said:

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    "Leavers are traitors". No truer words ever spoken on pb.
    I think that is a Reckless analogy...
    +1
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,435
    edited October 2018
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    "Leavers are traitors". No truer words ever spoken on pb.
    All leavers?
    Yes, every last one of them.
    Is it ok to call you a c@#t then?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Scott_P said:
    So even now, are we still facing the situation where Leavers believe we should demonstrate serious preparations for no deal in order to show that we aren't bluffing in negotiations, but insisting that any actual contingency plans based on an assessment of the consequences of no deal are over-exaggerated and unnecessary?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Scott_P said:
    Because parliament is acting like a bunch of idiots and will refuse to consider any deal because it is not perfect or is proposed by the wrong party
  • kjh said:

    Re crowd numbers:

    Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

    Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

    Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

    I suspect the Met Police wanted to avoid getting embroiled in a political row by estimating numbers so instead steered clear. The result has been to leave the field clear for estimates by the 2nd Ref organisers alone.

    I stand by what I said the other day/this morning (which I see seems to have triggered a few Remainers on the previous thread) between 250-300k people, and lower than the Countryside Alliance March.

    I don’t think it’s anywhere near 700,000, and 400,000 is probably the absolute ceiling.
    Thedred people in Brexit related regalia milling around. There was a steady stream of people from the station to Hyde Park that was large enough to constitute a pretty decent demonstration in its own right. About half way there was a large contingent, well over a thousand, gathering. I don't know who they were, but obviously some organisation that was going on bloc.
    for the number of participants.

    So, basically, it must be 700k because you were there and you were impressed.

    Ok.
    So basically, it can't be 700k because you weren't there and you would rather it wasn't.

    Ok.
    Only me!

    People's Vote March in 2018 = 700,000 300,000
    People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,000

    :lol:
    I think you meant.

    People's Vote March 20.10.18 = 700,000
    Leave Means 20.10.18 = 1200
    People's Vote March in 2018 = 700,000 300,000
    People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,000
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited October 2018
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    "Leavers are traitors". No truer words ever spoken on pb.
    All leavers?
    Yes, every last one of them.
    Ah, the 'Many of my opponents have done something stupid and hostile, so I must match them' approach.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    The difference is that Leavers are encouraging the Government to stand up to Barnier in order to seek the best possible terms for this country. Your "phalanx of (Philbyesque) patriots" is encouraging Barnier to offer the worst possible terms, by encouraging him in the belief that if Brexit is made unpalatable enough the UK could yet reverse its decision. The best that can be said for them is that they are his useful idiots.
  • Chris_A said:

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    "Leavers are traitors". No truer words ever spoken on pb.
    All leavers?
    Just the ones who said

    1) Leaving would be easy

    2) Said WTO was just Project Fear

    3) Say WTO will be good for the economy. (I think it was Robert who said those Leavers should be denied the vote for being so stupid).
    How many Remainers are traitors ?

    Starting with your definition anyone who promulgated Project Fear needs to be included.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    On the subject of treason:

    Treason never prospers;
    what’s the reason?
    If it do prosper
    None dare call it treason.

    During the Lee statue controversies, I seriously pissed off a number of Americans by asking if they were going to remove the statues of Washington as well. After all, he was a slave holder (who didn't emancipate his slaves until he died, at that) a Virginian, a crap general (unlike Lee) and had millions of statues everywhere. I was told that this was different because he wasn't a traitor...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Polruan said:

    So even now, are we still facing the situation where Leavers believe we should demonstrate serious preparations for no deal in order to show that we aren't bluffing in negotiations, but insisting that any actual contingency plans based on an assessment of the consequences of no deal are over-exaggerated and unnecessary?

    Cognitive dissonance was always essential to believe in Brexit...
  • John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    The difference is that Leavers are encouraging the Government to stand up to Barnier in order to seek the best possible terms for this country. Your "phalanx of (Philbyesque) patriots" is encouraging Barnier to offer the worst possible terms, by encouraging him in the belief that if Brexit is made unpalatable enough the UK could yet reverse its decision. The best that can be said for them is that they are his useful idiots.
    You've just been exposed as a hypocrite, I won't embarrass your idiocy further.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I went to vote yesterday. Lined up for almost exactly an hour. There were 16 voting machines, so once you got in to vote it didn't take long.

    I was told that about 30% have voted already in my district.

    I have already been a poll worker in the UK and Canada. I was meant to be a poll worker on election day here, but due to a prior commitment won't be able to. Imagine not many people have voted legally in elections in 3 countries and even fewer have been poll workers in 3 too.
  • Chris_A said:

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    "Leavers are traitors". No truer words ever spoken on pb.
    All leavers?
    Just the ones who said

    1) Leaving would be easy

    2) Said WTO was just Project Fear

    3) Say WTO will be good for the economy. (I think it was Robert who said those Leavers should be denied the vote for being so stupid).
    How many Remainers are traitors ?

    Starting with your definition anyone who promulgated Project Fear needs to be included.
    See below, I was talking about WTO.

    But you stick to focussing on strawberries.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Tim_B said:

    I went to vote yesterday. Lined up for almost exactly an hour. There were 16 voting machines, so once you got in to vote it didn't take long.

    I was told that about 30% have voted already in my district.

    I have already been a poll worker in the UK and Canada. I was meant to be a poll worker on election day here, but due to a prior commitment won't be able to. Imagine not many people have voted legally in elections in 3 countries and even fewer have been poll workers in 3 too.

    Any interesting differences in how the work was done in each?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    edited October 2018
    zapped


  • Zapped!
  • ydoethur said:

    On the subject of treason:

    Treason never prospers;
    what’s the reason?
    If it do prosper
    None dare call it treason.

    During the Lee statue controversies, I seriously pissed off a number of Americans by asking if they were going to remove the statues of Washington as well. After all, he was a slave holder (who didn't emancipate his slaves until he died, at that) a Virginian, a crap general (unlike Lee) and had millions of statues everywhere. I was told that this was different because he wasn't a traitor...
    BTW thanks for your recommendation of the Pollard book on the War of the Roses. It has kept my brain working while recuperating from some treatment. I even learned some new words!
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    The difference is that Leavers are encouraging the Government to stand up to Barnier in order to seek the best possible terms for this country. Your "phalanx of (Philbyesque) patriots" is encouraging Barnier to offer the worst possible terms, by encouraging him in the belief that if Brexit is made unpalatable enough the UK could yet reverse its decision. The best that can be said for them is that they are his useful idiots.
    Barnier, and the rest of the Commission really don't give a toss one way or the other, they just want the UK to go back to them with coherent plans that work with the treaties, laws and rules already accepted by the other 27 countries. These plans will be put to the Council (of 27 Leaders) for acceptance or not, and any one of them can block it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    On the subject of treason:

    Treason never prospers;
    what’s the reason?
    If it do prosper
    None dare call it treason.

    During the Lee statue controversies, I seriously pissed off a number of Americans by asking if they were going to remove the statues of Washington as well. After all, he was a slave holder (who didn't emancipate his slaves until he died, at that) a Virginian, a crap general (unlike Lee) and had millions of statues everywhere. I was told that this was different because he wasn't a traitor...
    BTW thanks for your recommendation of the Pollard book on the War of the Roses. It has kept my brain working while recuperating from some treatment. I even learned some new words!
    Glad you enjoyed it.

    Am now wondering what new words you have learned - catatonic schizophrenia perhaps?
  • Chris_A said:

    John_M said:

    I don't understand the obsession with the exact number. Let's get Biblical and say there was a 'multitude'. It was a fine demonstration; peaceful and good humoured. It's probably too early to say whether it's influenced May et al, but kudos to the organisers and participants.

    It is glorified willy waving, ignore the length, feel the girth.

    I prefer the term a phalanx of patriots marched through London on Saturday.
    Patriots in the sense that Philby was patriotic to the Soviet Union.

    People who actions serve to undermine the UK's negotiating position, encouraging Barnier to offer the toughest possible terms.
    You're talking about Leavers like IDS who have been to Bruxelles to try and undermine Mrs May's negotiations with Barnier right?

    Leavers are traitors, no wonder you're prepared to be Putin's little helpers.
    "Leavers are traitors". No truer words ever spoken on pb.
    All leavers?
    Just the ones who said

    1) Leaving would be easy

    2) Said WTO was just Project Fear

    3) Say WTO will be good for the economy. (I think it was Robert who said those Leavers should be denied the vote for being so stupid).
    How many Remainers are traitors ?

    Starting with your definition anyone who promulgated Project Fear needs to be included.
    See below, I was talking about WTO.

    But you stick to focussing on strawberries.
    Yes, there are still strawberries in the shops - even though we were told they would run out for Wimbledon last year.

    Now lets talk about the WTO - how many people think there will be no bad consequences from that because the whole Project Fear of 2016 turned out to be bollox ?

    George 'Punishment Budget' Osborne really did shit the bed when it came to economic warnings didn't he.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Scott_P said:
    Well yes, they can't requisition any ships as there's bugger all tonnage left on the UK Merchant Register these days. I suppose they could ask Bermuda or the Caymans to requisition a bunch of oligarchs' mega-yachts.
  • Scott_P said:
    I hope this is just Downing Street spin designed to spook some of the backbench Brexit Ultras; if it's been leaked by a Cabinet Leaver in a panic, then most likely it's genuine and we're in a serious pickle.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    ydoethur said:

    On the subject of treason:

    Treason never prospers;
    what’s the reason?
    If it do prosper
    None dare call it treason.

    During the Lee statue controversies, I seriously pissed off a number of Americans by asking if they were going to remove the statues of Washington as well. After all, he was a slave holder (who didn't emancipate his slaves until he died, at that) a Virginian, a crap general (unlike Lee) and had millions of statues everywhere. I was told that this was different because he wasn't a traitor...
    The whole confederate statues issue is hardly a rational and learned discourse among historians, to put it mildly.
This discussion has been closed.