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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The new regime at the Daily Mail is going to make it make it harder to oust TMay
The Mail turns its fire on the Tory plotters who are trying to oust TMay pic.twitter.com/0EFC8l78w3
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https://twitter.com/BrexitStewart/status/1054508064601186304
The lurid language of the ERG brings to mind the same overblown empty threat.
Sadly, these obscure backbenchers (mainly anonymous of course, like cowards down the ages) are not alone in their bid to wreck the Prime Minister’s Brexit plans.
Iain Duncan Smith scuttled off to Brussels yesterday to tell Michel Barnier that the Chequers deal would never get through Parliament and that he should offer Britain a Canada-style deal instead. As a former leader who was brought down by disloyalty, Mr Duncan Smith really should know better.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6305601/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Saboteurs-endangering-nation.html
Has anyone told her what those plans are?
Personal news; big day in the Cole household today; Eldest Grandson is getting married. First grandchild to do so, so it’s quite an event. Lots of our relations arriving; went out for very enjoyable dinner with what seemed quite a lot last night!
I don't think the press 'influence" voters much - they simply play back to them their world view and prejudices - Rebekkah Brookes stressed before Leveson how closely they pay attention to what their readers say - and as another relatively successful paper the Mail is doing that too:
Outside the Westminster bubble, the public are exasperated and exhausted by Brexit infighting and just want a sensible deal to be done – for the benefit of the 17.4 million people who voted Leave, as well as 16.1 million who voted Remain.
The dismal consequence could be Corbynism and a return to the economic paralysis and union domination of the 1970s.
I do think the press may influence some MPs and their Constituency chairman - so when a regular member or voter feeds back to them their own view - mirrored in the Mail, for example, they may think "aha, the Mail is influencing these people" when in truth its at least partly the other way round.
It will be interesting to see how Mr Greig fares - if Mail readers really are the Brexiteer hard core of Dacre's day then I would expect circulation to suffer - but given the hardest of hardcore Brexiteer newspapers, the Telegraph has seen some of the most precipitous declines I really don't think British voters are that ideological.
At bottom, what they really want to know is "how do we kick these buggers out?" And for the EU, they chose the only path open to them.
Still a completely absurd thing to do though.
And as Alistair said, that wouldn't have been an issue if he'd been vaguely competent anyway.
And he was still, frighteningly, a better Leader of the Opposition than Corbyn.
In my experience people are absolutely bored to tears about Brexit. They do not appreciate people on either side making life even more difficult for the PM, whether it is the second vote nonsense or the idiocies of IDS or the ERG. I am increasingly convinced that almost any deal that May brings back to the Commons will be voted through on this basis.
From May's point of view, she really needs to get on with it. The situation is febrile and changes of mood are entirely possible. The sooner she can get her deal signed off and in front of the Commons the better. I think the risks for her increase the longer this drags on.
All this blather about the single market, customs union doesn't mean much to ordinary people, although of course the impacts of those questions have the potential to be very politically significant.
Brexiteers may well be dividing between the bored and the bonkers, Remainers much less so.
One day, quite a number of years ago, he was apparently very angry, shouting to all and sundry “my phone is completely broken...I can’t believe it....someone fix it.....”
A quick press of the “On” button resolved the problem in 5 seconds - and I’m not joking about the above.
I'll get my coat. Have a good morning!
Not a fan of indoctrinating kids (there was a 'backlash' video on Youtube of someone coaching their five year old with pro-EU propaganda), but calling a sick child in hospital a cretin is utterly boorish.
And not just that. It's stupid. Like the pubescent knife-twisting numpty, and disregarding the moral misjudgement of getting giddy over such things, it actively helps the other side. And it's obvious that's the case.
When arch-Remainers giggle about Leavers all dying off, it doesn't make them look good. Turns out, amazingly, being contemptuous about sick children doesn't make you look good either.
Of the other Tory papers the Express and Telegraph will be behind the ERG and for hard Brexit and No Deal if necessary and the Times and Evening Standard will be for soft Brexit having backed Remain
https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1054001859180978176
I wonder 2 things:
1) Is it a psychological hangover from GFC that is making people more cautious?
2) How does this effect break down by income distribution?
When numbers are confirmed it will be shown to be smaller than the Countryside Alliance March of 2004.
Some people are hyper-engaged on political issues, for most it is a small part of their lives. When the countryside alliance marched many years ago, the whole country wasn't set alight by the issue of foxhunting. A small but vocal minority were extremely passionate about it. But it would be wrong to say that a silent majority throughout the country wanted the foxhunting ban overturned.
Ultimately May will have two choices - declare no deal herself, or come back with a ‘deal’ that clearly does not have the ability for the UK to exit the transition period on its own - eg a deal where it ends based on criteria that the EU control.
At that point, the public will focus on the matter and realise that Brexit will not be delivered because the UK has given away control instead of taking it back. Just like Cameron’s fudge, the public will turn on the deal and it will be defeated.
BTW yesterday’s quote from May was nothing like what you suggested. She simply repeated the formulation of the question when making her answer. The Government clearly set out that a second referendum was off the table permanently.
I always take heart when remainers start dreaming up new referendum questions because it shows how disconnected they are from reality. Tory MPs will never support it bceause it would cause carnage and achieve nothing.
May is boxed in by her conditions yesterday which obviously were a mile away from what she told Robbins to agree last week. It has been a good week for Brexit. Once the fuss about the unattributed comments dies down, the moves the remove her will return as soon as she tries to get away from her new red lines.
The only change I now see is that the chances of May declaring no deal have risen.
Oh, Stewart Jackson.
It didn't surprise me in the least when he resigned after Osborne's budget cuts that undermined his flagship policy.
Pehaps you could discreetly ask some of your guests something that has left me scratching my head.......
I saw a group of the Peacocking Saboteurs yesterday filmed walking down a street like the opening scene of Reservoir Dogs (IDS Redwood Rees Mogg Patterson Davis..) and knew that no friend or relative or person who had ever worked for me or I had ever worked for or barman or caterer or hoteller or restaurateur or anyone I had ever had dealings with.....could possibly find common cause with a group of politicians as noxious as this....
....... so where is their support coming from?
I was there, I have never been in such a big crowd, nor one so positive and well behaved.
People can be odd. A BBC report on that Bolsanaro chap in Brazil did a thing I've noticed them do a lot with odious leaders in explaining how horrible they are, and in his case that included how hugely misogynist he is, then buries part way down that they are popular, and in his case despite being so misogynist he was leading in the polls with women. So chances are loads of people you think would never find common cause with those people do.
https://youtu.be/usw0TEjfdPo
How many of the 700,000 had voted Leave?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/jamal-khashoggi-live-updates-erdogan-statement-watch-stream-video-turkey-latest-saudi-arabia-murder-a8597001.html
At the end of the day May knows she will not last long as PM if No Deal, either her party will replace her with a hard Brexiteer as she will be seen to have failed and better get a true believer rather a Remainer as she was or she will lose the next general election so she May as well put Brexit back to the people in that circumstance, let them decide and she can stay PM. The People's Vote campaign are reportedly in contact with 50 Tory MPs who back EUref2 over No Deal according to the Sunday Times so that would give it a comfortable Commons majority with opposition support too, if May backed it even most Tory MPs may do, after all most of them backed Remain
"Notes to self for future:
Very hard to pass in Mexico. Thinner air reduces the effectiveness of DRS and slipstreams.
Stupid track surface which means degradation is minimal. One stops very likely.
Not a car breaker."
The Police have said they 'can't estimate the numbers' but in general "Police Estimates" are typically around half (or less) than the organisers estimate.
The biggest demo on record - against the Iraq war - was estimated by the organisers at 2 million - the police thought 750,000 - and I don't think anyone is claiming the Brexit demo was that big. So if we apply that rough & ready 'rule of thumb' perhaps 350-375,000 took part - which would put it a shade under the Countryside Alliance at 400,000 (a rare example of where organiser and police estimates coincide):
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list
None of this matters. What matters is the 17.4 million.
If your proposal goes ahead the union would already be dead. Which is why its opposed by unionists.
https://www.ft.com/content/313fde10-d61c-11e8-ab8e-6be0dcf18713?segmentId=a7371401-027d-d8bf-8a7f-2a746e767d56
Utter rubbish. Even most Protestants in Northern Ireland want to stay in the single market and customs union
It is No Dealers like you who risk destroying the Union as polling shows Scots could vote for independence if No Deal and a majority of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if a hard border in Ireland
1. Viscount Rothermere controls the shots;
2. His wealth is directly tied into the value of his DMGT shares;
3. The health of DMGT's newspaper business is important for the share price. The shares tend to react badly to weakening circulation / advertising numbers (stating the obvious here but...)
4. Around 25% of DMGT's profits including its Euromoney associate come from newspapers. Ironically, because DMGT has sold off stakes in Zoopla and in Euromoney and made other disposals, newspapers are still important despite the profits declines.
5. Losses in newspaper revenues have a high drop through to profits (roughly 2/3) on both circulation and advertising. Rising paper costs will also hit the newspapers next year.
Putting all the above into the mix, my view is that Rothermere is willing to give Greig the chance to go with a more loyalist line to May but if there is any prolonged signs that his stance is hurting the newspapers on circulation he will be forced to turn around pretty sharpish. The signs don't look great - Daily Mail circulation was down 11% yoy in September and the Mail on Sunday down 13%. That is probably average to slightly worse than the market in general (the Times, e.g. is down 5%, the Telegraph was down 23%) but the Mail always prided itself that its circulation declines were lower than the market average. What might also worry the Mail is that Mail Online readers were down 19% yoy, much worse than the other newspaper websites.
I personally don't think Rothermere will give Greig much more than a few months with his stance if there are signs the loyalist stance is driving away readers (by the way, I don't think they are going to the Express, their behaviour is a bit more complex).
Also worth noting that the Express, which is behind the ERG, is owned by....the pro-Labour supporting Reach (the ex-Trinity Mirror). The fact the new management haven't put pressure on the editors to change the stance is a sign they are worried about the circulation / advertising loss.
Bets I'm looking at currently:
Verstappen, win (Betfair), 5.6, to hedge
Raikkonen, fastest qualifier, 10 each way
Force India, double points, 1.9 (they've had that in about 5/7 recent races and it would've been more if Ocon hadn't been disqualified on a technicality last time).
Ricciardo, not to be classified, 3.5
Under your proposal they would be a colony of the EU. Forced to maintain EU laws but given no say in them.
Hypothetical polling shows nothing other than your obsession with hypothetical polling.