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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bercow going in the summer opens the way for a Buckingham by-election

The news that John Bercow is bowing to the inevitable and planning to stand down in the summer opens up the prospect of what could be a humdinger of a by-election. For it is hard seeing him continuing as an MP when he ceases to be Speaker.

Read the full story here

RochdalePioneers

Last. Like UKIP in the coming by-election

AlastairMeeks

Would John Stevens be tempted to stand again? You'd have thought he'd have made for an attractive candidate for the Lib Dems in this seat.

AlastairMeeks

Meanwhile, this is in no way worrying:

https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1052225614512500736

RochdalePioneers

I'd like to encourage Lord Buckethead to run. He's far less crazy than many of our sitting MPs for supposedly sensible parties

grabcocque

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Danny565

A 51% Remain vote is hardly overwhelming? That's only slightly higher than next-door Aylesbury, where the Lib Dems were a distant third in 2017....

Sean_F

Bercow could always stay on as a left wing independent till 2022, or even take the Labour whip.

Tim_B

Just announced - Elizabeth Warren's official campaign song 2020...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RghKdGn8h5A

Floater

Is he going?

“The Speaker has made no announcement about his leaving date. He was elected by the House in 2017 for the course of the Parliament. In the event he has anything to say on his future plans, he will make an announcement to the House first.”

Floater

Of course he also has form for not leaving when he said he would

Stereotomy

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

Sean_F

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Quite possibly. Their demand (that Northern Ireland must remain in the Customs Union and Single Market) is the one demand that the government is unwilling (and maybe unable) to concede.

RochdalePioneers

Sean_F said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Quite possibly. Their demand (that Northern Ireland must remain in the Customs Union and Single Market) is the one demand that the government is unwilling (and maybe unable) to concede.

Its going to be fun. After the Salzburg "insult" May insisted the EU move next. The EU will simply shrug, point to the looming cliff edge and say "its your funeral". After yesterday afternoon's spectacular they must be waiting for one of a Tory leadership putch OR a confidence motion OR a "this house compels HMG to not accept a No Deal exit" OR May waking up screaming saying "oh God what are we doing".

As for the Irish Border its pretty simple. The EU Red Line is legally our red line. Politically it will finish May, but the alternative finishes the union, the peace process or possibly both. The UK will move because it has to.

MarqueeMark

Floater said:

Is he going?

“The Speaker has made no announcement about his leaving date. He was elected by the House in 2017 for the course of the Parliament. In the event he has anything to say on his future plans, he will make an announcement to the House first.”

He should be booted out now, not allowed to depart at a time of his deciding.

DavidL

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Well, they're foreigners. You can't believe a word they say anyway. Or something.

This will be the EU response to the panto in the HoC on Monday. We really mean it too (honest). Something has to give or no deal it is and no one really wants that.

dixiedean

Should Bercow go? Well yes. However, if that means just another Speaker, and MPs carry on behaving as before, then no.
HofC needs a proper HR department with a Code of Conduct. bullying, groping and abusive behaviour needs to be dealt with as it is in any other workplace. Not used by Whips as ammunition.
Whilst Bercow takes the flak, there is no publicity about, or naming of, MPs and staff implicated in the report

MarqueeMark

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

So the talks collapse. Greetings, No Deal Brexit.

For Labour to say they would have played things differently, they would have had to have waved cheerio to Northern Ireland. Will they admit that? I'm thinking no.

Meanwhile, May gets political cover to walk away, still saying "This is the unilateral decision of the EU. They have not negotiated in good faith. Meanwhile, Chequers is still on the table....".

David_Evershed

AlastairMeeks said:

Would John Stevens be tempted to stand again? You'd have thought he'd have made for an attractive candidate for the Lib Dems in this seat.

John Stevens was expelled from the Lib Dems for standing in Buckingham against the Speaker.

The Speaker has not announced that he will be resigning next June. He originally said he would stand down by last June but instead decided to stay on indefinitely.

LordOfReason

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now compromise and strike the deal. And secondly, as Merkel has been explaining what is sacrosanct to the EU project and non negotiable, the compromise from EU May needs to strike the deal doesn’t harm what Merkel has been talking about.
Thirdly, a lot of focus has been on pain of no deal, chaos to be untangled, but that’s not the key bit of no deal, it’s the place of antagonism and competition both parties are left in with no deal that’s ultimately the problem for EU and Ireland, a border not just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

Casino_Royale

I think OGH always fancies the yellows chances in any by-election seat.

It’s not the 1990s any more. Con hold.

SirBenjamin

More importantly, #Rudd4Speaker needs to start now.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Quite possibly. Their demand (that Northern Ireland must remain in the Customs Union and Single Market) is the one demand that the government is unwilling (and maybe unable) to concede.

I think we might need to walk away too.

It’s quite clear May can go no further on this, and nor should she.

LordOfReason

SirBenjamin said:

More importantly, #Rudd4Speaker needs to start now.

You are clearly not Labour, that denies them a key seat gain.

TheScreamingEagles

Well this trial is expected to last until December.

https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-craig-mackinlay-overspent-on-campaign-to-beat-nigel-farage-11527244

Casino_Royale

RochdalePioneers said:

Sean_F said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Quite possibly. Their demand (that Northern Ireland must remain in the Customs Union and Single Market) is the one demand that the government is unwilling (and maybe unable) to concede.

Its going to be fun. After the Salzburg "insult" May insisted the EU move next. The EU will simply shrug, point to the looming cliff edge and say "its your funeral". After yesterday afternoon's spectacular they must be waiting for one of a Tory leadership putch OR a confidence motion OR a "this house compels HMG to not accept a No Deal exit" OR May waking up screaming saying "oh God what are we doing".

As for the Irish Border its pretty simple. The EU Red Line is legally our red line. Politically it will finish May, but the alternative finishes the union, the peace process or possibly both. The UK will move because it has to.

There’s no point. The UK can’t move because it can’t get it through Parliament.

David_Evershed

DavidL said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Well, they're foreigners. You can't believe a word they say anyway. Or something.

This will be the EU response to the panto in the HoC on Monday. We really mean it too (honest). Something has to give or no deal it is and no one really wants that.

We should try shouting at them in a loud voice.

DavidL

Of course the EU walking away might make the next May update where she tells the Commons how swimmingly things are going just a bit more awkward. But hey, I'm sure it will be fine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gACCCmFKP80

David_Evershed

Casino_Royale said:

I think OGH always fancies the yellows chances in any by-election seat.

It’s not the 1990s any more. Con hold.

Con gain actually from Speaker.

Casino_Royale

David_Evershed said:

Casino_Royale said:

I think OGH always fancies the yellows chances in any by-election seat.

It’s not the 1990s any more. Con hold.

Con gain actually from Speaker.

Con gain under any scenario, more accurately.

DavidL

David_Evershed said:

Casino_Royale said:

I think OGH always fancies the yellows chances in any by-election seat.

It’s not the 1990s any more. Con hold.

Con gain actually from Speaker.

Yep, and who knows how important that 1 vote might prove to be?

kle4

Sean_F said:

Bercow could always stay on as a left wing independent till 2022, or even take the Labour whip.

Traditionally departing Speakers are given a Peerage and sit as Crossbenchers, it says as much in Erskine May, but then of course he is not a great fan of tradition, so could do any number of things including those

DavidL said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Well, they're foreigners. You can't believe a word they say anyway. Or something.

This will be the EU response to the panto in the HoC on Monday. We really mean it too (honest). Something has to give or no deal it is and no one really wants that.

We've already given quite a bit (in terms of the gov admitting it has to roll back a lot from what it has said in the past). Therefore either the EU gives, which is unlikely, or we capitulate without being able to pretend we are not capitulating and the Commons faces up to that, or we no deal.

And I don't believe people generally are as opposed to no deal as they claim they are. The actions on both sides prove it to be a lie, given the hostility to compromise.

LordOfReason

DavidL said:

Of course the EU walking away might make the next May update where she tells the Commons how swimmingly things are going just a bit more awkward. But hey, I'm sure it will be fine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gACCCmFKP80

No. May will be in a good place by weekend. They are going to let her speak for just ten minutes, then exclude her from a leisurely dinner where they will discuss Brexit. May surfing waves of anti EU backlash nailed on by the weekend.

If I were her spin doctor i would place her in a nearby restaurant where the world can see her eating a simple meal alone.

NickPalmer

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

I expect them to say something like "We are prepared for a no deal outcome if necessary but look forward optimstically to proposals to resolve the remaining issues."

I've come out of two Brexit planning sessions with several dozen people close to the various sides here and in Brussels. The majority view is that the outcome will be May going for a customs union with a statement of intent to end it but nothing binding, and that she'll get that through Parliament - but we'll then spend the next two years squabbling over what it means. The minority view is that no resolution is possible and there will simply be a basic agreement on basic cooperation while discussions continue after Brexit. Either way, we should expect to be still talking about this in 2020.

MarqueeMark

David_Evershed said:

DavidL said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Well, they're foreigners. You can't believe a word they say anyway. Or something.

This will be the EU response to the panto in the HoC on Monday. We really mean it too (honest). Something has to give or no deal it is and no one really wants that.

We should try shouting at them in a loud voice.

Time we called for the Paddington Hard Stare....

archer101au

Sean_F said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Quite possibly. Their demand (that Northern Ireland must remain in the Customs Union and Single Market) is the one demand that the government is unwilling (and maybe unable) to concede.

Not just the Government. Apart from a few Eurofanatics, there is hardly anyone in Parliament who would actually accept this demand.

If May cannot get the EU off the NI-only backstop she will not even be able to do a sellout deal.

Her aim is obviously to get to the all-UK backstop which is 'temporary' but ends based on circumstances that the UK cannot actually control. I don't think this will work either. There is too much focus on it and what it means.

DavidL

LordOfReason said:

DavidL said:

Of course the EU walking away might make the next May update where she tells the Commons how swimmingly things are going just a bit more awkward. But hey, I'm sure it will be fine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gACCCmFKP80

No. May will be in a good place by weekend. They are going to let her speak for just ten minutes, then exclude her from a leisurely dinner where they will discuss Brexit. May surfing waves of anti EU backlash nailed on by the weekend.

If I were her spin doctor i would place her in a nearby restaurant where the world can see her eating a simple meal alone.

I'm afraid that she is no Ginger Rogers. She'll find a way to screw it up. She always does.

kle4

NickPalmer said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

I expect them to say something like "We are prepared for a no deal outcome if necessary but look forward optimstically to proposals to resolve the remaining issues."

I've come out of two Brexit planning sessions with several dozen people close to the various sides here and in Brussels. The majority view is that the outcome will be May going for a customs union with a statement of intent to end it but nothing binding, and that she'll get that through Parliament - but we'll then spend the next two years squabbling over what it means. The minority view is that no resolution is possible and there will simply be a basic agreement on basic cooperation while discussions continue after Brexit. Either way, we should expect to be still talking about this in 2020.

Of course, though I have to say I just don't see how May can work a fudge which has nothing binding in it through Parliament - even plenty who fear a no deal could justifiably claim something like that is a silly outcome.

archer101au

LordOfReason said:

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now compromise and strike the deal. And secondly, as Merkel has been explaining what is sacrosanct to the EU project and non negotiable, the compromise from EU May needs to strike the deal doesn’t harm what Merkel has been talking about.
Thirdly, a lot of focus has been on pain of no deal, chaos to be untangled, but that’s not the key bit of no deal, it’s the place of antagonism and competition both parties are left in with no deal that’s ultimately the problem for EU and Ireland, a border not just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

What exactly do you think is going to be agreed?

David_Evershed

2017 Buckingham result

Speaker John Bercow 34,299 65.1% +0.6%

Green Michael Sheppard 8,574 16.3% +2.5%

Independent Scott Raven 5,638 10.7% +10.7%

UKIP Brian Mapletoft 4,168 7.9% -13.8%

Morris_Dancer

Mr. L, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL1zs4OKYAU

Brom

Once Bercow leaves they might fancy voting in a Conservative for a change.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well this trial is expected to last until December.

https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-craig-mackinlay-overspent-on-campaign-to-beat-nigel-farage-11527244

Interesting. I honestly thought that had gone in the long grass forever.

archer101au

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

I don't think they will. They will just sit back and say that the UK has to make more concessions and they should come and let them know when May is ready to climb down.

So, May will have the option of declaring that there is no possible deal and get the Party and the Nation united against the EU's impossible demands, or she can talk tough and then immediately send Robbins back to make yet more concessions. I think we know what she will do.

TheScreamingEagles

Bercow's a vile cretin.

He's a former member of the Monday Club.

Astonished Labour MPs are such a fan of that bellend.

twistedfirestopper3

At least 77 grand a year plus expenses, a good pension, a decent golden parachute, subsidised booze and grub and you can grope and bully as much as you want and the rest of your colleagues will close ranks to keep it all in house.. Why would any of our MPs voluntarily resign?

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bercow's a vile cretin.

He's a former member of the Monday Club.

Astonished Labour MPs are such a fan of that bellend.

Enemy of my enemy.

Jonathan

Mogg fancied himself as speaker. I can see May backing him.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, he's 'their' bell-end.

archer101au

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

I expect them to say something like "We are prepared for a no deal outcome if necessary but look forward optimstically to proposals to resolve the remaining issues."

I've come out of two Brexit planning sessions with several dozen people close to the various sides here and in Brussels. The majority view is that the outcome will be May going for a customs union with a statement of intent to end it but nothing binding, and that she'll get that through Parliament - but we'll then spend the next two years squabbling over what it means. The minority view is that no resolution is possible and there will simply be a basic agreement on basic cooperation while discussions continue after Brexit. Either way, we should expect to be still talking about this in 2020.

Of course, though I have to say I just don't see how May can work a fudge which has nothing binding in it through Parliament - even plenty who fear a no deal could justifiably claim something like that is a silly outcome.

If she was going to do this she should have done it months ago. Getting things through is about diverting the focus onto something else and not highlighting the crucial concession. May, in true form, has contrived to scream from the rooftops that the time limit is critical, made it 'absolutely clear' that she is not going to sell out on it but fudging her answers to the issue and put all her opponents on notice that she is indeed going to sell out so that they can get their positions in order to oppose it.

williamglenn

Jonathan said:

Mogg fancied himself as speaker. I can see May backing him.

It would be ironic if Mogg got it to much horror and then helped the Remainers when it came to the meaningful vote.

DavidL

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL1zs4OKYAU

Wonder if that's on May's itunes yet.

David_Evershed

David_Evershed said:

2017 Buckingham result

Speaker John Bercow 34,299 65.1% +0.6%

Green Michael Sheppard 8,574 16.3% +2.5%

Independent Scott Raven 5,638 10.7% +10.7%

UKIP Brian Mapletoft 4,168 7.9% -13.8%

Oh and 1967 spoilt ballots

stodge

Late afternoon all

Bercow can of course remain as Sp0eaker until a time of his choosing so the poor electors of Buckingham will be bombarded by wonderful LD and disappointingly poor Conservative leaflets (no bias of course) for a long period.

To be fair, the LDs in modern times have no record in Buckingham - I don't think they've been second since 1992 which says a lot. It's not a Richmond Park but by next summer, politics could look very different.

As for matters A50, the dance continues but we can already see the pro-Government line emerging. It will be to wrap May in the Union Jack and blame the "perfidious Europeans" for everything. It will be all to save "our precious Union" which seems to matter to Theresa May and some woman in Northern Ireland but probably not to a lot of other people.

I admit when I was considering the EU Referendum back in 2016 I didn't give Northern Ireland the slightest thought.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, he's 'their' bell-end.

Bellend is one word.

https://order-order.com/2014/07/25/full-sunday-sport-emailwho-the-hell-puts-a-hyphen-in-bellend/

stjohn

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bercow's a vile cretin.

He's a former member of the Monday Club.

Astonished Labour MPs are such a fan of that bellend.

Enemy of my enemy.

I live my life by the motto, "My enemy's enemy is my friend." Unfortunately, as it turns out, my enemy is his own worst enemy. So, I have to invite him to barbecues.

Brom

David_Evershed said:

David_Evershed said:

2017 Buckingham result

Speaker John Bercow 34,299 65.1% +0.6%

Green Michael Sheppard 8,574 16.3% +2.5%

Independent Scott Raven 5,638 10.7% +10.7%

UKIP Brian Mapletoft 4,168 7.9% -13.8%

Oh and 1967 spoilt ballots

A tactical vote is very hard in a seat like this, there is little for the left of centre voter to go off and thus I suspect it will be a Tory hold.

DavidL

stjohn said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bercow's a vile cretin.

He's a former member of the Monday Club.

Astonished Labour MPs are such a fan of that bellend.

Enemy of my enemy.

I live my life by the motto, "My enemy's enemy is my friend." Unfortunately, as it turns out, my enemy is his own worst enemy. So, I have to invite him to barbecues.

Like.

Pulpstar

I'm on a train heading out of Sheffield. It's overfull - should I do an opinion poll ?

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

I'm on a train heading out of Sheffield. It's overfull - should I do an opinion poll ?

Which train is it?

David_Evershed

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

I expect them to say something like "We are prepared for a no deal outcome if necessary but look forward optimstically to proposals to resolve the remaining issues."

I've come out of two Brexit planning sessions with several dozen people close to the various sides here and in Brussels. The majority view is that the outcome will be May going for a customs union with a statement of intent to end it but nothing binding, and that she'll get that through Parliament - but we'll then spend the next two years squabbling over what it means. The minority view is that no resolution is possible and there will simply be a basic agreement on basic cooperation while discussions continue after Brexit. Either way, we should expect to be still talking about this in 2020.

Of course, though I have to say I just don't see how May can work a fudge which has nothing binding in it through Parliament - even plenty who fear a no deal could justifiably claim something like that is a silly outcome.

It's her Cabinet she has to worry about first. Half would resign (or threaten to) if she agrees NI remains in the Customs union and single market but not rest of UK.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm on a train heading out of Sheffield. It's overfull - should I do an opinion poll ?

Which train is it?

Lincoln bound

rcs1000

DavidL said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Andrew said:

RobD said:

Thanks! So ~3.5%? Not terrible, but clearly not moving in the right direction!

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
"In CBO’s projections, budget deficits continue increasing after 2018, rising from 4.2 percent of GDP this year to 5.1 percent in 2022 (adjusted to exclude the shifts in timing). That percentage has been exceeded in only five years since 1946; four of those years followed the deep 2007–2009 recession. Deficits remain at 5.1 percent between 2022 and 2025 before dipping at the end of the period, primarily because some tax provisions are scheduled to expire under current law, boosting revenues. Over the 2021–2028 period, projected deficits average 4.9 percent of GDP; the only time since World War II when the average deficit has been so large over so many years was after the 2007–2009 recession."

& @RobD

The numbers for the budget deficit quoted are through to end September. The CBO just upped their forecast for 2018 deficit to 4.4% of GDP and for 2019 to 5.1%.

Do you know how many years between 1947 and 2007, the US had a deficit above 5%?

I stand corrected.. not even moving in the right direction.

It will end in tears. But not until after Trump is re-elected.

Have you been spying on the text for my next but one video???

2020: The Election They Wish They'd Never Won

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm on a train heading out of Sheffield. It's overfull - should I do an opinion poll ?

Which train is it?

Lincoln bound

Oh a Northern Fail one.

I hope this is a one off, if you're going to start regularly commuting on that train journey you'll go mad.

David_Evershed

Brom said:

David_Evershed said:

David_Evershed said:

2017 Buckingham result

Speaker John Bercow 34,299 65.1% +0.6%

Green Michael Sheppard 8,574 16.3% +2.5%

Independent Scott Raven 5,638 10.7% +10.7%

UKIP Brian Mapletoft 4,168 7.9% -13.8%

Oh and 1967 spoilt ballots

A tactical vote is very hard in a seat like this, there is little for the left of centre voter to go off and thus I suspect it will be a Tory hold.

Conservative GAIN.

shiney2

Nick Timothy..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7501794/this-is-your-brexit-boudicca-moment-theresa-its-time-to-say-on-your-way-barnier-like-up-yours-delors/

Unfortunately, if adopted, this is likely to be quite effective for a short while in tory/lab polling terms. And hence another barrier to the pusillanimous erg. Possibly long enough for the suggested 5y CU to slide thro like a snake in the grass.

HYUFD

Corbyn may be PM by next summer the way Brexit negotiations are going, so it could equally see a Tory protest vote as a LD one if it is a No Deal Brexit

ydoethur

stjohn said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bercow's a vile cretin.

He's a former member of the Monday Club.

Astonished Labour MPs are such a fan of that bellend.

Enemy of my enemy.

I live my life by the motto, "My enemy's enemy is my friend." Unfortunately, as it turns out, my enemy is his own worst enemy. So, I have to invite him to barbecues.

I'm sure you give him a good grilling before telling him to burger off...

TheScreamingEagles

shiney2 said:

Nick Timothy..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7501794/this-is-your-brexit-boudicca-moment-theresa-its-time-to-say-on-your-way-barnier-like-up-yours-delors/

Unfortunately, if adopted, this is likely to be quite effective for a short while in tory/lab polling terms. And hence another barrier to the pusillanimous erg. Possibly long enough for the suggested 5y CU to slide thro like a snake in the grass.

I suggested a 5 to 7 year transition whilst we remained in the Single Market/Customs Union back in 2016.

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Andrew said:

RobD said:

Thanks! So ~3.5%? Not terrible, but clearly not moving in the right direction!

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
"In CBO’s projections, budget deficits continue increasing after 2018, rising from 4.2 percent of GDP this year to 5.1 percent in 2022 (adjusted to exclude the shifts in timing). That percentage has been exceeded in only five years since 1946; four of those years followed the deep 2007–2009 recession. Deficits remain at 5.1 percent between 2022 and 2025 before dipping at the end of the period, primarily because some tax provisions are scheduled to expire under current law, boosting revenues. Over the 2021–2028 period, projected deficits average 4.9 percent of GDP; the only time since World War II when the average deficit has been so large over so many years was after the 2007–2009 recession."

& @RobD

The numbers for the budget deficit quoted are through to end September. The CBO just upped their forecast for 2018 deficit to 4.4% of GDP and for 2019 to 5.1%.

Do you know how many years between 1947 and 2007, the US had a deficit above 5%?

I stand corrected.. not even moving in the right direction.

It will end in tears. But not until after Trump is re-elected.

Have you been spying on the text for my next but one video???

2020: The Election They Wish They'd Never Won

Dunno, Bader Ginsburg will retire then, perhaps Breyer too. Trump could CEMENT SCOTUS even more conservative.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm on a train heading out of Sheffield. It's overfull - should I do an opinion poll ?

Which train is it?

Lincoln bound

Oh a Northern Fail one.

I hope this is a one off, if you're going to start regularly commuting on that train journey you'll go mad.

The Peugeot has been repatriated today. So, inshallah, I should be driving again soon

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm on a train heading out of Sheffield. It's overfull - should I do an opinion poll ?

Which train is it?

Lincoln bound

Oh a Northern Fail one.

I hope this is a one off, if you're going to start regularly commuting on that train journey you'll go mad.

The Peugeot has been repatriated today. So, inshallah, I should be driving again soon

David_Evershed

Jonathan said:

Mogg fancied himself as speaker. I can see May backing him.

Bercow is openly pro remain so will not step down until Brexit is defeated in parliament by the Lords or HoC.

HYUFD

Sean_F said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Quite possibly. Their demand (that Northern Ireland must remain in the Customs Union and Single Market) is the one demand that the government is unwilling (and maybe unable) to concede.

They may not have to. May made clear yesterday if she could not reach a Deal by the end of November she would pass the decision away from the Government onto Parliament who would almost certainly vote to keep the whole UK in the single market and customs union and ensure NI remained in the single market and customs union as the backstop to avoid a hard border in Ireland until a technical solution was found too

shiney2

TheScreamingEagles said:

shiney2 said:

Nick Timothy..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7501794/this-is-your-brexit-boudicca-moment-theresa-its-time-to-say-on-your-way-barnier-like-up-yours-delors/

Unfortunately, if adopted, this is likely to be quite effective for a short while in tory/lab polling terms. And hence another barrier to the pusillanimous erg. Possibly long enough for the suggested 5y CU to slide thro like a snake in the grass.

I suggested a 5 to 7 year transition whilst we remained in the Single Market/Customs Union back in 2016.

Glad I'm not mowing your lawn.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

shiney2 said:

Nick Timothy..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7501794/this-is-your-brexit-boudicca-moment-theresa-its-time-to-say-on-your-way-barnier-like-up-yours-delors/

Unfortunately, if adopted, this is likely to be quite effective for a short while in tory/lab polling terms. And hence another barrier to the pusillanimous erg. Possibly long enough for the suggested 5y CU to slide thro like a snake in the grass.

I suggested a 5 to 7 year transition whilst we remained in the Single Market/Customs Union back in 2016.

What would the backstop be?

ydoethur

shiney2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

shiney2 said:

Nick Timothy..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7501794/this-is-your-brexit-boudicca-moment-theresa-its-time-to-say-on-your-way-barnier-like-up-yours-delors/

Unfortunately, if adopted, this is likely to be quite effective for a short while in tory/lab polling terms. And hence another barrier to the pusillanimous erg. Possibly long enough for the suggested 5y CU to slide thro like a snake in the grass.

I suggested a 5 to 7 year transition whilst we remained in the Single Market/Customs Union back in 2016.

Glad I'm not mowing your lawn.

No need to grass him up though.

HYUFD

Jeremy Hunt along with 7 other Cabinet Ministers attended a 'Pizza summit' hosted by Andrea Leadsom in her office last night

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/15/eight-cabinet-ministers-concerns-mays-backstop-plan-attend-andrea/amp/

HYUFD

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

shiney2 said:

Nick Timothy..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7501794/this-is-your-brexit-boudicca-moment-theresa-its-time-to-say-on-your-way-barnier-like-up-yours-delors/

Unfortunately, if adopted, this is likely to be quite effective for a short while in tory/lab polling terms. And hence another barrier to the pusillanimous erg. Possibly long enough for the suggested 5y CU to slide thro like a snake in the grass.

I suggested a 5 to 7 year transition whilst we remained in the Single Market/Customs Union back in 2016.

What would the backstop be?

Permanent membership of the Single Market and Customs Union for Northern Ireland as most Northern Irish voters want

AndyJS

Buckingham was Remain but only by 51% to 49%.

LordOfReason

archer101au said:

LordOfReason said:

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now compromise and strike the deal. And secondly, as Merkel has been explaining what is sacrosanct to the EU project and non negotiable, the compromise from EU May needs to strike the deal doesn’t harm what Merkel has been talking about.
Thirdly, a lot of focus has been on pain of no deal, chaos to be untangled, but that’s not the key bit of no deal, it’s the place of antagonism and competition both parties are left in with no deal that’s ultimately the problem for EU and Ireland, a border not just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

What exactly do you think is going to be agreed?

British government already moved since last summit The two parties are very close to a deal, it’s just EUs backstop to backstop that’s the hold up, and EU can easily back down on that, the back down on that does not hit EU or SM fundamentals and avoids the antagonism of no deal relationship.
The agreed deal is UK stays in CU. I know yourself speaking for hard line leavers have objections to that type of vassal state Brexit, but they can to some extent be mitigated in further agreements, also your concerns would lose in the commons and in a ref put to the country yes or no on the deal.
Sorry about that old bean, but it’s going to happen.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm on a train heading out of Sheffield. It's overfull - should I do an opinion poll ?

Which train is it?

Lincoln bound

Oh a Northern Fail one.

I hope this is a one off, if you're going to start regularly commuting on that train journey you'll go mad.

The Peugeot has been repatriated today. So, inshallah, I should be driving again soon

Hurrah, I once used that train to get to Gainsborough, at peak time.

The first train I couldn't get on board as it was rammed, so went to Meadowhall, and boarded the next train, where there would be guaranteed seats.

Oh how wrong I was, I think I got a seat at Retford.

CarlottaVance

Trump unwisely takes on Stormy...

https://twitter.com/StormyDaniels/status/1052224021855637505

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

shiney2 said:

Nick Timothy..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7501794/this-is-your-brexit-boudicca-moment-theresa-its-time-to-say-on-your-way-barnier-like-up-yours-delors/

Unfortunately, if adopted, this is likely to be quite effective for a short while in tory/lab polling terms. And hence another barrier to the pusillanimous erg. Possibly long enough for the suggested 5y CU to slide thro like a snake in the grass.

I suggested a 5 to 7 year transition whilst we remained in the Single Market/Customs Union back in 2016.

What would the backstop be?

Full membership of the CU/SM until Liam Fox agreed the 40 trade deals he said he would be ready one minute after Brexit.

David_Evershed

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

shiney2 said:

Nick Timothy..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7501794/this-is-your-brexit-boudicca-moment-theresa-its-time-to-say-on-your-way-barnier-like-up-yours-delors/

Unfortunately, if adopted, this is likely to be quite effective for a short while in tory/lab polling terms. And hence another barrier to the pusillanimous erg. Possibly long enough for the suggested 5y CU to slide thro like a snake in the grass.

I suggested a 5 to 7 year transition whilst we remained in the Single Market/Customs Union back in 2016.

What would the backstop be?

Permanent membership of the Single Market and Customs Union for Northern Ireland as most Northern Irish voters want

NI wanted the UK to stay in the EU. Not the same as NI remaining in the EU without the rest of the UK.

Alanbrooke

France is getting scary

first they investigate LePen and ask her to undergo a psychiatic examination

now theyve raided Melenchon;s home and party offices

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/2018/10/16/25001-20181016ARTFIG00106-perquisition-au-domicile-de-jean-luc-melenchon.php

Floater

DavidL said:

LordOfReason said:

DavidL said:

Of course the EU walking away might make the next May update where she tells the Commons how swimmingly things are going just a bit more awkward. But hey, I'm sure it will be fine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gACCCmFKP80

No. May will be in a good place by weekend. They are going to let her speak for just ten minutes, then exclude her from a leisurely dinner where they will discuss Brexit. May surfing waves of anti EU backlash nailed on by the weekend.

If I were her spin doctor i would place her in a nearby restaurant where the world can see her eating a simple meal alone.

I'm afraid that she is no Ginger Rogers. She'll find a way to screw it up. She always does.

LOL - I wish I could argue with that.

shiney2

LordOfReason said:

archer101au said:

LordOfReason said:

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now compromise and strike the deal. And secondly, as Merkel has been explaining what is sacrosanct to the EU project and non negotiable, the compromise from EU May needs to strike the deal doesn’t harm what Merkel has been talking about.
Thirdly, a lot of focus has been on pain of no deal, chaos to be untangled, but that’s not the key bit of no deal, it’s the place of antagonism and competition both parties are left in with no deal that’s ultimately the problem for EU and Ireland, a border not just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

What exactly do you think is going to be agreed?

British government already moved since last summit The two parties are very close to a deal, it’s just EUs backstop to backstop that’s the hold up, and EU can easily back down on that, the back down on that does not hit EU or SM fundamentals and avoids the antagonism of no deal relationship.
The agreed deal is UK stays in CU. I know yourself speaking for hard line leavers have objections to that type of vassal state Brexit, but they can to some extent be mitigated in further agreements, also your concerns would lose in the commons and in a ref put to the country yes or no on the deal.
Sorry about that old bean, but it’s going to happen.

And the DUP?

David_Evershed

CarlottaVance said:

Trump unwisely takes on Stormy...

https://twitter.com/StormyDaniels/status/1052224021855637505

Stormy Daniels - a bad loser.

TheScreamingEagles

shiney2 said:

LordOfReason said:

archer101au said:

LordOfReason said:

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now compromise and strike the deal. And secondly, as Merkel has been explaining what is sacrosanct to the EU project and non negotiable, the compromise from EU May needs to strike the deal doesn’t harm what Merkel has been talking about.
Thirdly, a lot of focus has been on pain of no deal, chaos to be untangled, but that’s not the key bit of no deal, it’s the place of antagonism and competition both parties are left in with no deal that’s ultimately the problem for EU and Ireland, a border not just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

What exactly do you think is going to be agreed?

British government already moved since last summit The two parties are very close to a deal, it’s just EUs backstop to backstop that’s the hold up, and EU can easily back down on that, the back down on that does not hit EU or SM fundamentals and avoids the antagonism of no deal relationship.
The agreed deal is UK stays in CU. I know yourself speaking for hard line leavers have objections to that type of vassal state Brexit, but they can to some extent be mitigated in further agreements, also your concerns would lose in the commons and in a ref put to the country yes or no on the deal.
Sorry about that old bean, but it’s going to happen.

And the DUP?

Fuck the DUP.

We did not vote to Leave and take back control just to give control to a bunch of homophobic god bothering creationists.

HYUFD

shiney2 said:

LordOfReason said:

archer101au said:

LordOfReason said:

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now compromise and strike the deal. And secondly, as Merkel has been explaining what is sacrosanct to the EU project and non negotiable, the compromise from EU May needs to strike the deal doesn’t harm what Merkel has been talking about.
Thirdly, a lot of focus has been on pain of no deal, chaos to be untangled, but that’s not the key bit of no deal, it’s the place of antagonism and competition both parties are left in with no deal that’s ultimately the problem for EU and Ireland, a border not just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

What exactly do you think is going to be agreed?

British government already moved since last summit The two parties are very close to a deal, it’s just EUs backstop to backstop that’s the hold up, and EU can easily back down on that, the back down on that does not hit EU or SM fundamentals and avoids the antagonism of no deal relationship.
The agreed deal is UK stays in CU. I know yourself speaking for hard line leavers have objections to that type of vassal state Brexit, but they can to some extent be mitigated in further agreements, also your concerns would lose in the commons and in a ref put to the country yes or no on the deal.
Sorry about that old bean, but it’s going to happen.

And the DUP?

They cannot complain if Parliament votes for the whole UK to stay in the single market and customs union which most Northern Irish voters want anyway

archer101au

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

shiney2 said:

Nick Timothy..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7501794/this-is-your-brexit-boudicca-moment-theresa-its-time-to-say-on-your-way-barnier-like-up-yours-delors/

Unfortunately, if adopted, this is likely to be quite effective for a short while in tory/lab polling terms. And hence another barrier to the pusillanimous erg. Possibly long enough for the suggested 5y CU to slide thro like a snake in the grass.

I suggested a 5 to 7 year transition whilst we remained in the Single Market/Customs Union back in 2016.

What would the backstop be?

Permanent membership of the Single Market and Customs Union for Northern Ireland as most Northern Irish voters want

Well, that is a fantasy. But on the bright side, if it was agreed, it would guarantee CETA as the solution because at that point nobody would have any need to agree anything else.

HYUFD

David_Evershed said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

shiney2 said:

Nick Timothy..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7501794/this-is-your-brexit-boudicca-moment-theresa-its-time-to-say-on-your-way-barnier-like-up-yours-delors/

Unfortunately, if adopted, this is likely to be quite effective for a short while in tory/lab polling terms. And hence another barrier to the pusillanimous erg. Possibly long enough for the suggested 5y CU to slide thro like a snake in the grass.

I suggested a 5 to 7 year transition whilst we remained in the Single Market/Customs Union back in 2016.

What would the backstop be?

Permanent membership of the Single Market and Customs Union for Northern Ireland as most Northern Irish voters want

NI wanted the UK to stay in the EU. Not the same as NI remaining in the EU without the rest of the UK.

The Single Market and Customs Union is not the full EU and as I said Parliament would vote for the whole UK to stay in the single market and customs union anyway

Philip_Thompson

shiney2 said:

LordOfReason said:

archer101au said:

LordOfReason said:

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now compromise and strike the deal. And secondly, as Merkel has been explaining what is sacrosanct to the EU project and non negotiable, the compromise from EU May needs to strike the deal doesn’t harm what Merkel has been talking about.
Thirdly, a lot of focus has been on pain of no deal, chaos to be untangled, but that’s not the key bit of no deal, it’s the place of antagonism and competition both parties are left in with no deal that’s ultimately the problem for EU and Ireland, a border not just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

What exactly do you think is going to be agreed?

British government already moved since last summit The two parties are very close to a deal, it’s just EUs backstop to backstop that’s the hold up, and EU can easily back down on that, the back down on that does not hit EU or SM fundamentals and avoids the antagonism of no deal relationship.
The agreed deal is UK stays in CU. I know yourself speaking for hard line leavers have objections to that type of vassal state Brexit, but they can to some extent be mitigated in further agreements, also your concerns would lose in the commons and in a ref put to the country yes or no on the deal.
Sorry about that old bean, but it’s going to happen.

And the DUP?

DUP only object if UK is divided. If NI is treated different to GB. In that they're no different than SCON.

It is the ERG that will object more to a never-ending UKEU Customs Union.

Philip_Thompson

TheScreamingEagles said:

shiney2 said:

LordOfReason said:

archer101au said:

LordOfReason said:

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now compromise and strike the deal. And secondly, as Merkel has been explaining what is sacrosanct to the EU project and non negotiable, the compromise from EU May needs to strike the deal doesn’t harm what Merkel has been talking about.
Thirdly, a lot of focus has been on pain of no deal, chaos to be untangled, but that’s not the key bit of no deal, it’s the place of antagonism and competition both parties are left in with no deal that’s ultimately the problem for EU and Ireland, a border not just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

What exactly do you think is going to be agreed?

British government already moved since last summit The two parties are very close to a deal, it’s just EUs backstop to backstop that’s the hold up, and EU can easily back down on that, the back down on that does not hit EU or SM fundamentals and avoids the antagonism of no deal relationship.
The agreed deal is UK stays in CU. I know yourself speaking for hard line leavers have objections to that type of vassal state Brexit, but they can to some extent be mitigated in further agreements, also your concerns would lose in the commons and in a ref put to the country yes or no on the deal.
Sorry about that old bean, but it’s going to happen.

And the DUP?

Fuck the DUP.

We did not vote to Leave and take back control just to give control to a bunch of homophobic god bothering creationists.

The DUP are part of we.

We did not vote to Leave and take back control but only of a fraction of the UK and give the leave the other fraction behind in the EU.

We all leave together. On this the DUP are eminently reasonable.

The fact that the very reasonable openly gay Ruth Davidson is on the same page as the "homophobic god bothering creationists" should say something.

tlg86

Thornberry looking ridiculous on the Six O'Clock News.

archer101au

LordOfReason said:

archer101au said:

LordOfReason said:

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now compromise and strike the deal. And secondly, as Merkel has been explaining what is sacrosanct to the EU project and non negotiable, the compromise from EU May needs to strike the deal doesn’t harm what Merkel has been talking about.
Thirdly, a lot of focus has been on pain of no deal, chaos to be untangled, but that’s not the key bit of no deal, it’s the place of antagonism and competition both parties are left in with no deal that’s ultimately the problem for EU and Ireland, a border not just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

What exactly do you think is going to be agreed?

British government already moved since last summit The two parties are very close to a deal, it’s just EUs backstop to backstop that’s the hold up, and EU can easily back down on that, the back down on that does not hit EU or SM fundamentals and avoids the antagonism of no deal relationship.
The agreed deal is UK stays in CU. I know yourself speaking for hard line leavers have objections to that type of vassal state Brexit, but they can to some extent be mitigated in further agreements, also your concerns would lose in the commons and in a ref put to the country yes or no on the deal.
Sorry about that old bean, but it’s going to happen.

If you had followed what Barnier has said, CU membership on its own does not in any way solve the NI border issue. The UK would have to stay aligned with all SM regulations as well. The very reason that Barnier has rejected an all UK backstop is that it would allow the UK to stay in the SM without adhering to the four freedoms. So the EU are not going to agree this deal.

They will insist on SM+CU, which means the four freedoms. The other option is to split off NI and have CETA. This has always been their (totally unreasonable) position. Your option is neither of these, so will not be available.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

shiney2 said:

LordOfReason said:

archer101au said:

LordOfReason said:

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now compromise and strike the deal. And secondly, as Merkel has been explaining what is sacrosanct to the EU project and non negotiable, the compromise from EU May needs to strike the deal doesn’t harm what Merkel has been talking about.
Thirdly, a lot of focus has been on pain of no deal, chaos to be untangled, but that’s not the key bit of no deal, it’s the place of antagonism and competition both parties are left in with no deal that’s ultimately the problem for EU and Ireland, a border not just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

What exactly do you think is going to be agreed?

British government already moved since last summit The two parties are very close to a deal, it’s just EUs backstop to backstop that’s the hold up, and EU can easily back down on that, the back down on that does not hit EU or SM fundamentals and avoids the antagonism of no deal relationship.
The agreed deal is UK stays in CU. I know yourself speaking for hard line leavers have objections to that type of vassal state Brexit, but they can to some extent be mitigated in further agreements, also your concerns would lose in the commons and in a ref put to the country yes or no on the deal.
Sorry about that old bean, but it’s going to happen.

And the DUP?

Fuck the DUP.

We did not vote to Leave and take back control just to give control to a bunch of homophobic god bothering creationists.

thats enough about Bradford

HYUFD

archer101au said:

LordOfReason said:

archer101au said:

LordOfReason said:

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

What exactly do you think is going to be agreed?

British government already moved since last summit The two parties are very close to a deal, it’s just EUs backstop to backstop that’s the hold up, and EU can easily back down on that, the back down on that does not hit EU or SM fundamentals and avoids the antagonism of no deal relationship.
The agreed deal is UK stays in CU. I know yourself speaking for hard line leavers have objections to that type of vassal state Brexit, but they can to some extent be mitigated in further agreements, also your concerns would lose in the commons and in a ref put to the country yes or no on the deal.
Sorry about that old bean, but it’s going to happen.

If you had followed what Barnier has said, CU membership on its own does not in any way solve the NI border issue. The UK would have to stay aligned with all SM regulations as well. The very reason that Barnier has rejected an all UK backstop is that it would allow the UK to stay in the SM without adhering to the four freedoms. So the EU are not going to agree this deal.

They will insist on SM+CU, which means the four freedoms. The other option is to split off NI and have CETA. This has always been their (totally unreasonable) position. Your option is neither of these, so will not be available.

Parliament will vote to stay in the single market and customs union and that will be the backstop for NI too

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

thats enough about Bradford

I know TykeJohnno's a bit obsessive but that's a bit harsh on him.

shiney2

Philip_Thompson said:

shiney2 said:

LordOfReason said:

archer101au said:

LordOfReason said:

Stereotomy said:

grabcocque said:

The EU are planning to walk away from the Brexit negotiations tomorrow.

You can tell that's what they're planning because *they keep saying it*.

Though I realize that listening to what the EU are saying is an idea that seems to have no traction whatsoever in Maybot's bunker.

Can't wait for all the comments here saying that they've "overplayed their hand"

I think the EU will back down and strike a deal. Three reasons, Not least because of all their member states other than the departing one Ireland are set to suffer most of all. It’s the Irish government who will finally call it off saying to EU, we tried but let’s now compromise and strike the deal. And secondly, as Merkel has been explaining what is sacrosanct to the EU project and non negotiable, the compromise from EU May needs to strike the deal doesn’t harm what Merkel has been talking about.
Thirdly, a lot of focus has been on pain of no deal, chaos to be untangled, but that’s not the key bit of no deal, it’s the place of antagonism and competition both parties are left in with no deal that’s ultimately the problem for EU and Ireland, a border not just in Irish Sea, but all round Britain’s coast.

Of course there is going to be a deal.

What exactly do you think is going to be agreed?

British government already moved since last summit The two parties are very close to a deal, it’s just EUs backstop to backstop that’s the hold up, and EU can easily back down on that, the back down on that does not hit EU or SM fundamentals and avoids the antagonism of no deal relationship.
The agreed deal is UK stays in CU. I know yourself speaking for hard line leavers have objections to that type of vassal state Brexit, but they can to some extent be mitigated in further agreements, also your concerns would lose in the commons and in a ref put to the country yes or no on the deal.
Sorry about that old bean, but it’s going to happen.

And the DUP?

DUP only object if UK is divided. If NI is treated different to GB. In that they're no different than SCON.

It is the ERG that will object more to a never-ending UKEU Customs Union.

You missed a word:

DUP only object if UK is divided ever.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9uHhLe6WE0

The CU and SM have to be explicitly permanent to pass the DUP. Which fouls the ERG (as you said)

Its the deadlock that does for the proposal in the original post..