Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some numbers to show the shallowness of the German car-markers
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some numbers to show the shallowness of the German car-markers’ Brexit argument
Total VW car sales UK last year 208,462
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
2017 leading importers of German cars: (Euros, Billion)
USA: 26.9
UK: 25.0
China: 21.0
France: 16.4
Italy: 12.4
Spain: 9.7
https://www.statista.com/statistics/587701/leading-import-countries-german-motor-vehicles-by-export-value/
I honestly thought OGH of all people would understand how production pipelines and inventories work.
VW group sales were about 520k units in the UK last year
Theresa May is backstopping her own power of thought.
Gary Linekar, Dominic West, Lena Beasley, Michael Morpurgo, Tracey Ullman and Andy Serkis have recorded video messages of support. Armando Iannucci, Sir Patrick Stewart, Natascha McElhone and Jamie Carragher have sponsored coaches to the march.
Mrs Brown star Brendan O'Carroll has told marchers 'It could be the March of your lives.'
Bob Geldof is also involved and has promised to 'bring democracy to Parliament.'
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/delia-smith-to-lead-march-for-a-people-s-vote-on-brexit-deal-a3962206.html?amp
Obviously if we can leave, but choose to stay after all that’s a whole different ball game.
Got to be worth a go
The European Council will start on Wednesday evening with a debate on Brexit. I have invited Prime Minister May to address the EU27, giving the UK Government's assessment of the negotiations. Later at 27, we will decide on how to take the negotiations forward, on the basis of a recommendation by our chief negotiator, Michel Barnier. As you remember from Salzburg, we wished for maximum progress and results that would lead to a deal in October. As things stand today, it has proven to be more complicated than some may have expected. We should nevertheless remain hopeful and determined, as there is good will to continue these talks on both sides. But at the same time, responsible as we are, we must prepare the EU for a no-deal scenario, which is more likely than ever before. Like the UK, the Commission has started such preparations, and will give us an update during the meeting. But let me be absolutely clear. The fact that we are preparing for a no-deal scenario must not, under any circumstances, lead us away from making every effort to reach the best agreement possible, for all sides. This is what our state of mind should be at this stage. As someone rightly said: 'It always seems impossible until it's done.' Let us not give up.
emphasis added
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/10/15/invitation-letter-by-president-donald-tusk-to-the-members-of-the-european-council-ahead-of-their-meetings-on-17-and-18-october-2018/
Colour me surprised.
List of countries by German net foreign trade surplus (gross exports less gross imports) in 2017 (in Euro billions):
1. USA 50 bn
2. UK 47 bn
3. France 41 bn
4. Austria 22 bn
5. Spain 11 bn
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/ForeignTrade/Tables/OrderRankGermanyTradingPartners.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
The question that needs answering is how much does it value the convenience of getting Brexit out of the way? Ultimately I expect the answer is “quite a bit”. There’s a fair chance of a concession close when the matter leaves the hands of the Eurocrats and reaches the politicians. They have quite enough other problems to be dealing with.
Whether that will be enough to overcome the mania of the Parliamentary hardline Leavers must be very doubtful though.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1051881974158249985
The Sun newspaper reported Mohammed bin Salman, currently battling claims his country has murdered a prominent journalist, was due to meet club co-owner and co-chair Avram Glazer in the kingdom.
It claimed the prince was interested in supporting the Saudi purchase of a major stake worth about £3bn or a full takeover.
https://news.sky.com/story/manchester-united-shares-rise-amid-saudi-prince-takeover-talk-11526592
- The EU have to commit in the WA that the only end game solution is for a soft border at the NI/ROI land border policed by appropriate technology and that they will work towards that.
- Deal is based on CETA and this is agreed in transition period.
- WTO asked to become supervisor and arbiter of any such system - they need to determine what is necessary to comply with WTO rules, provide scope of system and assess when a system is viable.
- Replace backstop with extendable transition period that can be extended (say) twice for a year only if the WTO declare customs system not viable at that time.
- After transition period and two extensions deal ends.
It is reasonable and based on trying to solve the problem. If it didn't pass Parliament it would be sufficient basis for a GE as Tories would be able to campaign and win on this.
I think the truth is that everyone knows that the UK would accept this and the EU reject it, which frankly says it all, but it would be worth proposing. If the EU were actually interested in the NI border as a real issue, and not just a lever, they would accept this.
Sept 17 - 36,332
Sept 18 - 16,283
Now August 18 figures are 5000 more than last year but that's still a massive drop...
And when I compare UK figures to European figures the UK is 12% of the european market.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1051857114388463616
The above is the German industry bodies view.
5% of the German economy is directly or indirectly due to trade with the UK.
Food for thought for Merkel.
https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1051887175346864128?s=20
Also, VW group is way more than just VW as a brand.
The most worrying feature today for May was the hardcore Remainers saying they won't support Chequers. So they vote down May's deal and then realise there is no majority for anything else and we get no deal. Fine by me.
http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/opel-vauxhall/
The text in the above article states "30% of Opel Sales now RHD." Also look at the declining total sales figures in a growing market.
Everyone supporting a second vote seems to be a remainder. Not exactly a consensus..
It is TM deal if she gets one or as TM said today the HOC will be instructed to sort it out and no deal will vanish
They are out to overturn the result of the referendum and, as the EU itself has shown in the past, they are prepared to make the people vote as often as necessary until they come back with the correct answer. The People’s Vote is the political wing of Continuity Remain.
https://stephendaisley.com/2018/10/15/brexit-fills-me-with-dread-but-peoples-vote-scares-me-more/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
That 30% figure is high - in 2017 it was 20.9%
Ford does seem to be about 30% though (287,396 out of 1.030.074 european sales).
She then decided to piss away that majority three years early.
And if you were in any doubt about which side you wanted to be on, just look at the Leaver side headed by Trump and Putin, and followed by Farage, Johnson, Fox, Rees-Mogg, Grayling.
1. I would have never offered the backstop. But even at this stage I still believe that if the UK said to the EU Council that we would accept CETA and pay the Brexit bill but we will not accept a backstop and it will have to be solved by technology or we would go for no deal, they would accept. The backstop is the ONLY thing stopping this deal. In May's plan, it involves so much complexity and cherry picking that the EU know that it will never get done; hence the desire for the backstop. I have never believed that the EU actually think the NI border is not solvable.
2. I have proposed another option down thread.
3. If the EU insist on the backstop, I would propose a negotiated no deal as follows:
- All issues other than Brexit bill and backstop signed as per the draft WA.
- Delay A50 to 1 January 2019.
- EU and UK agree to good faith efforts to resolve technical issues (eg flights, certifications) prior to exit.
- In return, UK will agree to refer the Brexit bill to the ICJ for independent arbitration. However, UK free to argue that no amount is owing and EU can pitch for whatever they like. Result binding on both sides.
4. If they won't accept this, no deal at 31 March 2019 exit.
Given Grieve is now another committed vote for EUref2 along with Rudd etc if No Deal and May's suggestion today she will leave it to Parliament to decide the next course if No Deal we could well be heading for EUref2 or at least staying in the single market
The EU have not moved at all, on Chequers or the backstop.
All in all I am hoping that the EU leaders will be rude to TM again this week so we can get you back on the light side...:)
Meanwhile, all those kids dying in the Yemen are presumably being bombed by rogue pilots.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/411411-trump-says-rogue-killers-could-be-to-blame-for-saudi-journalist
Yes; yes.
I’d prefer something a little closer.
A silly extra point, perhaps.
'Do you wish to Remain and save the economy or do you want to destroy the UK, the economy, whilst doing Putin's bidding by voting Leave?'
If her deal is voted down, she is highly likely to resign.
There is no mechanism by which the HoC can negotiate a deal. To pass legislation, they have to have Government support to even get it on the order paper. A second ref actually does not have anything like a majority in the Tory party, won't solve any problem and will get boycotted by Leave anyway - a Tory Government will not propose it. The only outcome that HoC might try to impose is Norway, but that still requires acceptance of the backstop, and there is not a majority to accept the backstop. The DUP will force a GE rather than accept that.
A far more likely outcome is May resigning, a Tory leaver taking over (say Raab) and the execution of no deal.