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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,464

    ydoethur said:

    I dont believe a good chunk of Tory voters want a non-white leader yet - Baroness Warsi's comments about Islamaphobia strike an unpleasant chord about Little Britain Tories.

    Even if your comment was correct - and I would point out that she would actually be the third Tory leader from an ethnic minority, the first appointed as long ago as 1867, so it clearly isn't - she is not a Muslim so Islamophobia (which is, again, bigotry not racism) is irrelevant.

    It's her somewhat slippery business and overseas dealings plus her policy stances that rule her out.
    Who was the second; Alec Douglas-Home?
    Michael Howard.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,464
    edited October 2018

    @britainelects



    @britainelects
    8h8 hours ago
    Labour GAIN Southlands (Adur) from UKIP.

    Anyone got the figures for that one. Looks possibly significant.
    No figures, but I don't think it is. The UKIP councillor had left to go and live in Scotland, and there was no UKIP candidate. Moreover the local Labour association, surprisingly, appear to be hard-right Corbynista wing-nuts, so the UKIP vote probably went from them and went straight home again.

    It does of course suggest the idea UKIP former Labour voters will migrate to the Tories is incorrect, but we knew that already.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,004
    I see there is a proposed calorie limit on pizzas and pies...
    Definitely not the right move, information on calories - sure.. but not state enforced pizza sizes.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,464
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    I would really like to get behind Patel, but I just can't. She has views I support but she doesn't have the talent. She just doesn't strike me as terribly bright. But she looks good on the telly and I suppose that is all that matters these days.

    My mum lives in Patel's constituency. She says she "works ever so hard". I'm not sure, but I think this is a euphemism from her teaching days meaning "she's as thick as pigshit".
    Since not being a Minister (!) she’s taken a greater interest in constituency matters, especially, for some reason, in the Tiptree.... home of the jam-maker..... area.
    What is it about Brexiteers and their fixation on innovative jam?

    We all know one party leader is skilled at jam making...
    She's at the tip of the tree, but he's at the top of it!
    She knows how to win over Conserve-atives.
    That pun is plum.

    Have a good morning...
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Roger said:

    Anazina said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from our Association Annual Dinner with Priti Patel.

    Archer will be pleased to hear she was very pro 'Leave means Leave' ie leave the single market and customs union and ECJ jurisdiction and cut taxes and regulation and pursue 'global Britain.'

    I doubt she will be the next PM but as a future Tory Leader of the Opposition she may be in the frame

    I would really like to get behind Patel, but I just can't. She has views I support but she doesn't have the talent. She just doesn't strike me as terribly bright. But she looks good on the telly and I suppose that is all that matters these days.
    If you were going on intelligence alone Geoffrey Cox would be a good bet given his oratory last week but he is more a leader for 1948 than 2018.

    Patel is photogenic and sharp and against Corbyn I think could get under his skin being a female Asian Thatcherite
    She is indeed photogenic. Sharp...dubious. Thatcherite well that is not flavour of the month outside the most committed Tory circles. She is also a proven liar. But needs must...
    Would this be the very same ‘sharp’ Priti Patel?

    https://youtu.be/_DrsVhzbLzU

    Great footage. It's surprising she's got as far as she has. I noticed her on a program the other day and she seemed to have lost her habit of dropping letters which is something of an improvement. She must have has elocution lessons but as Edmund says even with this minor improvement 'thick as pigshit' seems about right.
    I saw her at a fringe party conference event once. Press release Patel. She was great on her speech and set answers, but when she has to deviate away to answer questions she was unprepared for she was awful. Very disappointed. She ticked all the boxes. Photogenic, articulate, female, solidly conservative and a minority ( the last bit just to wind labour up).
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    @britainelects



    @britainelects
    8h8 hours ago
    Labour GAIN Southlands (Adur) from UKIP.

    Anyone got the figures for that one. Looks possibly significant.
    https://twitter.com/michael4sussex/status/1050511620718366721?s=21
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,415

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.

    Selling the deal is only the half of it. The government will also have to cope with people unhappy with the consequences even if they are uninterested in the details.
    Indeed. May is in a very hard place in that the only deal she can do with the EU is one that her party will not bear. She sees the need for a deal (partly because of her own incompetence in failing to prepare adequately for no deal) but is struggling to find a way that it can be acceptable to her own party and the DUP. That carelessly thrown away majority is key here. Her government could easily fall.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,083
    edited October 2018
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I dont believe a good chunk of Tory voters want a non-white leader yet - Baroness Warsi's comments about Islamaphobia strike an unpleasant chord about Little Britain Tories.

    Even if your comment was correct - and I would point out that she would actually be the third Tory leader from an ethnic minority, the first appointed as long ago as 1867, so it clearly isn't - she is not a Muslim so Islamophobia (which is, again, bigotry not racism) is irrelevant.

    It's her somewhat slippery business and overseas dealings plus her policy stances that rule her out.
    Who was the second; Alec Douglas-Home?
    Michael Howard.
    Ah, yes. In other thoughts, are you looking forward to half-term?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,805

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.
    Worse than that it means the EU can sell access to British markets as a free “sweetener” in any future trade deal without any input from ourselves.
    Which is another way of saying that the EU can make a more attractive offer to third countries because it includes the UK. This means the whole block including the UK gets a better offer in return from the third country. On the whole that's beneficial to us.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,464
    Jonathan said:

    @britainelects



    @britainelects
    8h8 hours ago
    Labour GAIN Southlands (Adur) from UKIP.

    Anyone got the figures for that one. Looks possibly significant.
    https://twitter.com/michael4sussex/status/1050511620718366721?s=21
    And this is the last set of results.

    https://www.adur-worthing.gov.uk/elections-and-voting/election-results/2016/#southlands-ward-election-result-05-05-2016

    So I was wrong and actually the UKIP vote split about 55-45 for Labour, having been a three-way marginal before.

    Labour should however be more worried about their losses in the north if they pay attention to such things.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,464

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I dont believe a good chunk of Tory voters want a non-white leader yet - Baroness Warsi's comments about Islamaphobia strike an unpleasant chord about Little Britain Tories.

    Even if your comment was correct - and I would point out that she would actually be the third Tory leader from an ethnic minority, the first appointed as long ago as 1867, so it clearly isn't - she is not a Muslim so Islamophobia (which is, again, bigotry not racism) is irrelevant.

    It's her somewhat slippery business and overseas dealings plus her policy stances that rule her out.
    Who was the second; Alec Douglas-Home?
    Michael Howard.
    Ah, yes. In other thoughts, are you looking forward to half-term?
    It's not for two weeks! AAARGH!!!

    Yes.

    Have a good morning.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    ydoethur said:

    I dont believe a good chunk of Tory voters want a non-white leader yet - Baroness Warsi's comments about Islamaphobia strike an unpleasant chord about Little Britain Tories.

    Even if your comment was correct - and I would point out that she would actually be the third Tory leader from an ethnic minority, the first appointed as long ago as 1867, so it clearly isn't - she is not a Muslim so Islamophobia (which is, again, bigotry not racism) is irrelevant.

    It's her somewhat slippery business and overseas dealings plus her policy stances that rule her out.

    He fails to understand how the Conservative Party and its membership works. They love nothing more than someone who wouldn’t traditionally be seen as one of them, telling them the values they hold are right for the nation.

    Even in the Republican Party in the USA, which seems to openly show off its disdain for other races on a regular basis, both Colin Powell and Condolezza Rice had the support and seniority to make leadership bids if they wanted. They both decided it wasn’t for them.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.
    Worse than that it means the EU can sell access to British markets as a free “sweetener” in any future trade deal without any input from ourselves.
    But we get the rest of the EU as a free sweetener. Which is the biggest free trade area on the planet. Even with no say in its operation it still sounds like a great deal.
    I don’t think you’ve understood what I wrote.
    I don't think you understood what you wrote.
    No, I understood perfectly.

    The EU can throw in items into future trade deals that matter little to itself but hugely to the UK, so such trade deals risk being lopsided and not in our interests.

    Yes, they make trading with the EU itself more straightforward but, over time, that will be a diminishing benefit as our trade with the RoW grows.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.

    Selling the deal is only the half of it. The government will also have to cope with people unhappy with the consequences even if they are uninterested in the details.
    Indeed. May is in a very hard place in that the only deal she can do with the EU is one that her party will not bear. She sees the need for a deal (partly because of her own incompetence in failing to prepare adequately for no deal) but is struggling to find a way that it can be acceptable to her own party and the DUP. That carelessly thrown away majority is key here. Her government could easily fall.
    It also starkly demonstrates that all her claims of 'no deal is better than a bad deal' etc were a lie.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,415
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I dont believe a good chunk of Tory voters want a non-white leader yet - Baroness Warsi's comments about Islamaphobia strike an unpleasant chord about Little Britain Tories.

    Even if your comment was correct - and I would point out that she would actually be the third Tory leader from an ethnic minority, the first appointed as long ago as 1867, so it clearly isn't - she is not a Muslim so Islamophobia (which is, again, bigotry not racism) is irrelevant.

    It's her somewhat slippery business and overseas dealings plus her policy stances that rule her out.
    Who was the second; Alec Douglas-Home?
    Michael Howard.
    Ah, yes. In other thoughts, are you looking forward to half-term?
    It's not for two weeks! AAARGH!!!

    Yes.

    Have a good morning.
    My son came off last night for 10 days. Not seen him this morning, funnily enough.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.
    Worse than that it means the EU can sell access to British markets as a free “sweetener” in any future trade deal without any input from ourselves.
    They can’t offer access to the UK without offering the same access to themselves.
    Yes, but they might not care if it costs them little but costs the UK rather a lot more.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,083
    Jonathan said:

    @britainelects



    @britainelects
    8h8 hours ago
    Labour GAIN Southlands (Adur) from UKIP.

    Anyone got the figures for that one. Looks possibly significant.
    https://twitter.com/michael4sussex/status/1050511620718366721?s=21
    Thanks for that. I see Labour won the ward in May as well, so not as significant.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,415
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.
    Worse than that it means the EU can sell access to British markets as a free “sweetener” in any future trade deal without any input from ourselves.
    Which is another way of saying that the EU can make a more attractive offer to third countries because it includes the UK. This means the whole block including the UK gets a better offer in return from the third country. On the whole that's beneficial to us.
    Depends on what they are looking for in exchange for that access. We only gain if our strengths are priorities and that didn't even seem to happen when we were full members.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684
    Jonathan said:

    @britainelects



    @britainelects
    8h8 hours ago
    Labour GAIN Southlands (Adur) from UKIP.

    Anyone got the figures for that one. Looks possibly significant.
    https://twitter.com/michael4sussex/status/1050511620718366721?s=21
    I think Worthing is slowly going the way of Brighton and Hove.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.
    Worse than that it means the EU can sell access to British markets as a free “sweetener” in any future trade deal without any input from ourselves.
    Which is another way of saying that the EU can make a more attractive offer to third countries because it includes the UK. This means the whole block including the UK gets a better offer in return from the third country. On the whole that's beneficial to us.
    It certainly helps the EU, it may or may not benefit the UK proportionately because our interests wouldn’t be represented at the table. Think Italian tomato growers holding up EU trade deals because their interests aren’t accommodated, but in reverse.

    This really isn’t hard stuff to understand. The (very EUphile) Economist has made the same criticism of this multiple times.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,415

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.

    Selling the deal is only the half of it. The government will also have to cope with people unhappy with the consequences even if they are uninterested in the details.
    Indeed. May is in a very hard place in that the only deal she can do with the EU is one that her party will not bear. She sees the need for a deal (partly because of her own incompetence in failing to prepare adequately for no deal) but is struggling to find a way that it can be acceptable to her own party and the DUP. That carelessly thrown away majority is key here. Her government could easily fall.
    It also starkly demonstrates that all her claims of 'no deal is better than a bad deal' etc were a lie.
    It could have been true but that would have required clarity of purpose, diligence and competence. So yes, it was a lie.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    @britainelects



    @britainelects
    8h8 hours ago
    Labour GAIN Southlands (Adur) from UKIP.

    Anyone got the figures for that one. Looks possibly significant.
    https://twitter.com/michael4sussex/status/1050511620718366721?s=21
    And this is the last set of results.

    https://www.adur-worthing.gov.uk/elections-and-voting/election-results/2016/#southlands-ward-election-result-05-05-2016

    So I was wrong and actually the UKIP vote split about 55-45 for Labour, having been a three-way marginal before.

    Labour should however be more worried about their losses in the north if they pay attention to such things.
    The local by election tended to be a blood bath for the party in power nationally. These results are showing no uptick in labour support. Eight years into a conservative led government.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This Week tonight is reporting May is moving towards proposing that GB stays in the Customs Union but Northern Ireland stays in the Single Market

    Brenda won't be pleased when she finds out she will be having to get out and vote will be required again shortly.
    Unless May gets enough Labour, LD and SNP votes for her plans to overcome the ERG and DUP opposition
    Never going to happen.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061

    HYUFD said:

    Bolsonaro leads on 58% to 42% for Haddad in a new poll for the 2nd round runoff of the Brazilian Presidential election

    https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/noticia/2018/10/10/datafolha-para-presidente-votos-validos-bolsonaro-58-haddad-42.ghtml

    Really bad news. Another climate change denier, who reportedly wants to chop down the amazon rainforest.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/brazils-bolsonaro-would-unleash-a-war-on-the-environment
    He seems to be a very unpleasant man generally from some reports.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    @britainelects



    @britainelects
    8h8 hours ago
    Labour GAIN Southlands (Adur) from UKIP.

    Anyone got the figures for that one. Looks possibly significant.
    https://twitter.com/michael4sussex/status/1050511620718366721?s=21
    I think Worthing is slowly going the way of Brighton and Hove.
    That would make sense. As Brighton becomes prohibitive, overspill along the coast is accelerating. The generation and culture that secured Worthing for the Blues is not what it once was.
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.
    Worse than that it means the EU can sell access to British markets as a free “sweetener” in any future trade deal without any input from ourselves.
    But we get the rest of the EU as a free sweetener. Which is the biggest free trade area on the planet.
    No it is not! On not one metric is that true!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061
    RoyalBlue said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Portillo convinced there's going to be an election soon - Have to say if he's right I'll be voting for Corbyn is May if leading the Tories in any election.

    I've had it with her and her shambles of a party!

    #ToriesOut

    Surely UKIP would be more appropriate?
    Nope. UKIP is a wasted vote (and they are racists - I don't associate myself with racists)

    Time to hit Con right where it hurts and that's by voting for Corbyn to get them out!
    Left wing idiots got Corbyn to the brink of 10 Downing Street. Right wing fools who’d cut off their nose to spite their face will put him in.
    Not a bad summary.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    I am trying to think how long it is since Scotland has played this badly. It’s not easy to be sure because we often play poorly but this seems a whole new level of crud.

    https://twitter.com/Munchbunch87/status/1050492555849293824
    Yet it was an ex Celtic player that made the first goal and the current Celtic blunder kid that scored the winner for Israel.

    Funny old game.
    Now done all the railways within and south of the Central Belt - with the sole exception of Stranraer due to the stability issues at Ayr station!
    I still haven't taken the Shotts line between Glasgow and Edinburgh and I commute between the two often enough.

    On the hottest day in Glasgow ever, this past summer, I did board one of the Shotts line trains at Glasgow Central after buckled rails closed the Falkirk High route, but then they cancelled that train too and sent everyone back to Queen Street for the Bathgate trains.
    Well it seems that they have electrified the Shotts Line, or at least the wires are in place - just need to be energised I guess. I finished off my Scottish invasion incursion sojourn by doing Shotts eastbound and Bathgate westbound - last year did Bathgate eastbound and last Monday week did Shotts westbound.

    I guess I will have to wait till next year (more daylight, better weather) before doing the rest of Scotland. Oh, well!
    Yes, apparently the new electric trains for the Falkirk High line will also be running on the Shotts line.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.

    Selling the deal is only the half of it. The government will also have to cope with people unhappy with the consequences even if they are uninterested in the details.
    Indeed. May is in a very hard place in that the only deal she can do with the EU is one that her party will not bear. She sees the need for a deal (partly because of her own incompetence in failing to prepare adequately for no deal) but is struggling to find a way that it can be acceptable to her own party and the DUP. That carelessly thrown away majority is key here. Her government could easily fall.
    It also starkly demonstrates that all her claims of 'no deal is better than a bad deal' etc were a lie.
    I think everyone knew that at the time really. People believe it but she never did.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.
    Worse than that it means the EU can sell access to British markets as a free “sweetener” in any future trade deal without any input from ourselves.
    But we get the rest of the EU as a free sweetener. Which is the biggest free trade area on the planet. Even with no say in its operation it still sounds like a great deal.
    I don’t think you’ve understood what I wrote.
    I don't think you understood what you wrote.
    No, I understood perfectly.

    The EU can throw in items into future trade deals that matter little to itself but hugely to the UK, so such trade deals risk being lopsided and not in our interests.

    Yes, they make trading with the EU itself more straightforward but, over time, that will be a diminishing benefit as our trade with the RoW grows.
    The rest of the world growing doesn't mean our trade with the EU shrinks. It doesn't even make it less important. Richer people in Row will be customers for the kinds of goods we currently sell to Europeans. It is therefore even more important than ever we maintain our current position in the EU market and aim to improve it still further. Arguing the opposite is arguing against gravity.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I dont believe a good chunk of Tory voters want a non-white leader yet - Baroness Warsi's comments about Islamaphobia strike an unpleasant chord about Little Britain Tories.

    Even if your comment was correct - and I would point out that she would actually be the third Tory leader from an ethnic minority, the first appointed as long ago as 1867, so it clearly isn't - she is not a Muslim so Islamophobia (which is, again, bigotry not racism) is irrelevant.

    It's her somewhat slippery business and overseas dealings plus her policy stances that rule her out.
    Who was the second; Alec Douglas-Home?
    Michael Howard.
    Ah, yes. In other thoughts, are you looking forward to half-term?
    It's not for two weeks! AAARGH!!!

    Yes.

    Have a good morning.
    HT starts at the end of today, doesn’t it?
  • Options
    Theresa May does not speak for the United Kingdom. The First Lord of the Treasury does not have a mandate from her Cabinet. Can not get a mandate from her party on the emerging deal. Will not get a mandate from the Commons.

    Yet despite this supposedly she has the authority to negotiate and secure a transition deal where the detail will get filled in later? Cobblers. Her authority has gone, the crisis is here. I look out the window at the howling gale and imagine I will be knocking doors very soon for a December election...
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I dont believe a good chunk of Tory voters want a non-white leader yet - Baroness Warsi's comments about Islamaphobia strike an unpleasant chord about Little Britain Tories.

    Even if your comment was correct - and I would point out that she would actually be the third Tory leader from an ethnic minority, the first appointed as long ago as 1867, so it clearly isn't - she is not a Muslim so Islamophobia (which is, again, bigotry not racism) is irrelevant.

    It's her somewhat slippery business and overseas dealings plus her policy stances that rule her out.
    Who was the second; Alec Douglas-Home?
    Michael Howard.
    Ah, yes. In other thoughts, are you looking forward to half-term?
    It's not for two weeks! AAARGH!!!

    Yes.

    Have a good morning.
    HT starts at the end of today, doesn’t it?
    Not for everyone. Some areas it’s the week after.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,053
    DavidL said:



    Indeed. May is in a very hard place in that the only deal she can do with the EU is one that her party will not bear. She sees the need for a deal (partly because of her own incompetence in failing to prepare adequately for no deal) but is struggling to find a way that it can be acceptable to her own party and the DUP. That carelessly thrown away majority is key here. Her government could easily fall.

    It's like she is trying to solve a Rubik's Cube made completely of human shit.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,108
    notme said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I dont believe a good chunk of Tory voters want a non-white leader yet - Baroness Warsi's comments about Islamaphobia strike an unpleasant chord about Little Britain Tories.

    Even if your comment was correct - and I would point out that she would actually be the third Tory leader from an ethnic minority, the first appointed as long ago as 1867, so it clearly isn't - she is not a Muslim so Islamophobia (which is, again, bigotry not racism) is irrelevant.

    It's her somewhat slippery business and overseas dealings plus her policy stances that rule her out.
    Who was the second; Alec Douglas-Home?
    Michael Howard.
    Ah, yes. In other thoughts, are you looking forward to half-term?
    It's not for two weeks! AAARGH!!!

    Yes.

    Have a good morning.
    HT starts at the end of today, doesn’t it?
    Not for everyone. Some areas it’s the week after.
    Week after for us (22nd to 26th)
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    DavidL said:

    Why on earth are we leaving the Customs Union? Of all the craziness associated with Brexit this has to be the craziest.

    Because of the baggage that comes with it. A Customs Union means we cannot do our own deals internationally and are stuck with deals designed to protect Spanish produce or Greek olives but which seem to offer us relatively little in the way of services access.

    In the EU's case CU membership also seems to come at the price of having to comply with and implement their laws and be subject to the overarching jurisdiction of the CJEU for dispute resolution. These are not a necessary adjunct of a CU but in their case it seems to be the price of membership, despite the deal they have with Turkey.

    The government seems to now want a CU of sorts (the UK wide backstop) but it doesn't want this other stuff and could not sell a deal including it. Whether it can sell a deal including CU membership remains to be seen.
    Worse than that it means the EU can sell access to British markets as a free “sweetener” in any future trade deal without any input from ourselves.
    But we get the rest of the EU as a free sweetener. Which is the biggest free trade area on the planet. Even with no say in its operation it still sounds like a great deal.
    I don’t think you’ve understood what I wrote.
    I don't think you understood what you wrote.
    No, I understood perfectly.

    The EU can throw in items into future trade deals that matter little to itself but hugely to the UK, so such trade deals risk being lopsided and not in our interests.

    Yes, they make trading with the EU itself more straightforward but, over time, that will be a diminishing benefit as our trade with the RoW grows.
    Being in a CU does not mean necessarily that the UK will benefit from EU trade deals. A CU is just an agreement on common tariffs. But a trade deal requires alignment or equivalence on regulations. If the UK is in the CU, it will also need to follow all SM rules (i) to participate in trade deals, which are based on EU regulations and (ii) to 'solve' the fake NI border.

    This is why the CU has been a chimera for the whole discussion - being in the CU on its own solves nothing; you have to follow SM regulations as well, which will result in demands for money and FOM as Barnier has always stated.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Jonathan said:

    @britainelects



    @britainelects
    8h8 hours ago
    Labour GAIN Southlands (Adur) from UKIP.

    Anyone got the figures for that one. Looks possibly significant.
    https://twitter.com/michael4sussex/status/1050511620718366721?s=21
    I think Worthing is slowly going the way of Brighton and Hove.

    Jonathan said:

    @britainelects



    @britainelects
    8h8 hours ago
    Labour GAIN Southlands (Adur) from UKIP.

    Anyone got the figures for that one. Looks possibly significant.
    https://twitter.com/michael4sussex/status/1050511620718366721?s=21
    I think Worthing is slowly going the way of Brighton and Hove.
    I grew up in a ward just like this one. I think the UKIP vote switching to Labour is true but not the whole story. The white working class UKIP voters are older and now staying at home. Their kids are turning out for Labour. I would not be surprised to see a UKIP councillor in his sixties being beaten somewhere by his grandchild in their twenties or thirties.

  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    RoyalBlue said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Portillo convinced there's going to be an election soon - Have to say if he's right I'll be voting for Corbyn is May if leading the Tories in any election.

    I've had it with her and her shambles of a party!

    #ToriesOut

    Surely UKIP would be more appropriate?
    Nope. UKIP is a wasted vote (and they are racists - I don't associate myself with racists)

    Time to hit Con right where it hurts and that's by voting for Corbyn to get them out!
    Left wing idiots got Corbyn to the brink of 10 Downing Street. Right wing fools who’d cut off their nose to spite their face will put him in.
    This is not an empty threat at all. The majority of Leavers are older Tory voters. They are not going to be terribly affected by Corbyn (they are pensioners) and they are absolutely furious with May over Brexit. Since I got back to the UK I have heard exactly this threat from a number of people. It may not be rational, but if you feel betrayed you will lash out somewhere.

    If the election is in 2020, Farage and his crew will set up UKIP 2 which will hoover up Tory votes. If it happens soon, Corbyn will win if May is trying to sell her 'deal'.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184

    RoyalBlue said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Portillo convinced there's going to be an election soon - Have to say if he's right I'll be voting for Corbyn is May if leading the Tories in any election.

    I've had it with her and her shambles of a party!

    #ToriesOut

    Surely UKIP would be more appropriate?
    Nope. UKIP is a wasted vote (and they are racists - I don't associate myself with racists)

    Time to hit Con right where it hurts and that's by voting for Corbyn to get them out!
    Left wing idiots got Corbyn to the brink of 10 Downing Street. Right wing fools who’d cut off their nose to spite their face will put him in.
    This is not an empty threat at all. The majority of Leavers are older Tory voters. They are not going to be terribly affected by Corbyn (they are pensioners) and they are absolutely furious with May over Brexit. Since I got back to the UK I have heard exactly this threat from a number of people. It may not be rational, but if you feel betrayed you will lash out somewhere.

    If the election is in 2020, Farage and his crew will set up UKIP 2 which will hoover up Tory votes. If it happens soon, Corbyn will win if May is trying to sell her 'deal'.
    On current polls even after Chequers the Tories would be largest party and Corbyn would need SNP and LD votes to become PM.

    Indeed the Tories could well win a majority in England but Corbyn still ends up in Number 10 propped up by minor parties
This discussion has been closed.