Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 54% chance that TMay will go next year with

24

Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    I am trying to think how long it is since Scotland has played this badly. It’s not easy to be sure because we often play poorly but this seems a whole new level of crud.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,781
    Charles said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    It's back on again: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2018/10/11/student-union-seeks-ban-students-dressing-tories-fancy-dress/

    :D
    Actually, those do by and large seem quite sensible rules.
    If you say so.

    (Complete fucking idiots to a man (or woman) is nearer the mark in my view.)
    How genderist of you!! Not everyone applies the outdated, discriminatory, medieval, hideous words “man” or “woman” to themselves.
    Anyone that's struggling to be involved in the general sweep, and wishes to be awkward about such things has an extensive array of ditches around the country that they can go and lie in.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

    It is only complicated if either side rules out the option of looking again at the arrangement should they feel some time .
    No, it is a simple choice. Full and binding alignment with the single Market, or a Canada style FTA negotiated by the same muppets currently languidly negotiating. Bear in mind that the UK and EU27 each have different pluses in mind. Canada or Norway has always been the choice, but a choice that May has dithered over for 2 years.
    Don't forget sequencing prevents any negotiation on the future trading relationship.
    Yes, the EU27 are much better negotiators than the Tories. Its like Accrington Stanley reserves vs Real Madrid.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Charles said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    It's back on again: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2018/10/11/student-union-seeks-ban-students-dressing-tories-fancy-dress/

    :D
    Actually, those do by and large seem quite sensible rules.
    If you say so.

    (Complete fucking idiots to a man (or woman) is nearer the mark in my view.)
    How genderist of you!! Not everyone applies the outdated, discriminatory, medieval, hideous words “man” or “woman” to themselves.
    Nice to see you charging into the 21st Century Charles ;)

    :D:D:D
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    In the real world I am beginning to suspect that events are about to overtake domestic politics. I Was visiting a large manufacturer in the midlands today. They are a core part of UK industry with £20m turnover. Like much of industry they are owned by offshore private equity. They are struggling to be allowed to invest despite a massive order book and premium products. Staff retention is low and employees age is high. How will Brexit help solve the real world issues this plant faces and the real risk of it being closed.

    Much of our wealth in this country is in the hands of people who don’t care about Brexit. We want control of our country but we have mortgaged much of it to pawnbrokers.

    That is the price you pay for running 20 years of trade deficits, most of it with the EU.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited October 2018
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
    Given the lack of blood, do not look too hard. :D:D:D
    Although LauraK now tweeting that Downing Street on resignation watch..,
    I am shocked

    image

    I expect little from the spineless fools that inhabit Westmonster
  • kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Maybe it's possible that the climate will change in this way: TM is stoically getting on with an almost impossible task and some sort of agreement on a WA is at least thinkable. She is being bullied on every possible side by groups, some of then startlingly nasty, who are all correct in their own eyes, but who could never command consent of a majority and are in complete disagreement with each other; in most cases the others don't have to articulate a rational and coherent plan which could survive a moment's proper scrutiny (Labour, Boris, DUP, People's Vote....). In the absence of a plausible candidate maybe 2019 is a bit early for her departure. Maybe we should wait and see.

    TM can run down the clock putting the EU in panic mode and then in the new year, when everything is kicking off, move to accepting a Norway deal

    Just another theory
    The EU won't panic, they seem very confident we will give in, not without reason.
    The EU got this, we got this in the bag, air about them havnt they?
    Worrying.
  • If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Maybe it's possible that the climate will change in this way: TM is stoically getting on with an almost impossible task and some sort of agreement on a WA is at least thinkable. She is being bullied on every possible side by groups, some of then startlingly nasty, who are all correct in their own eyes, but who could never command consent of a majority and are in complete disagreement with each other; in most cases the others don't have to articulate a rational and coherent plan which could survive a moment's proper scrutiny (Labour, Boris, DUP, People's Vote....). In the absence of a plausible candidate maybe 2019 is a bit early for her departure. Maybe we should wait and see.

    TM can run down the clock putting the EU in panic mode and then in the new year, when everything is kicking off, move to accepting a Norway deal

    Just another theory
    The EU won't panic, they seem very confident we will give in, not without reason.
    The EU got this, we got this in the bag, air about them havnt they?
    Worrying.
    If you read Ivan Rogers Cambridge speech, you can see why.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    edited October 2018

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Nah, she is as stubborn as Corbyn. No amount of cabinet walkouts would get her to resign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Maybe it's possible that the climate will change in this way: TM is stoically getting on with an almost impossible task and some sort of agreement on a WA is at least thinkable. She is being bullied on every possible side by groups, some of then startlingly nasty, who are all correct in their own eyes, but who could never command consent of a majority and are in complete disagreement with each other; in most cases the others don't have to articulate a rational and coherent plan which could survive a moment's proper scrutiny (Labour, Boris, DUP, People's Vote....). In the absence of a plausible candidate maybe 2019 is a bit early for her departure. Maybe we should wait and see.

    TM can run down the clock putting the EU in panic mode and then in the new year, when everything is kicking off, move to accepting a Norway deal

    Just another theory
    The EU won't panic, they seem very confident we will give in, not without reason.
    The EU got this, we got this in the bag, air about them havnt they?
    Worrying.
    It only works if we do indeed give in. Their goal is not for us to have no deal, but I'd still put that as most likely. So in fact if that does occur, the EU's confidence will have been misplaced since no deal was not their aim, even though it is worse for us than them.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Maybe, but I'm not convinced. She survived DD and Boris leaving, amongst others, after the Chequers Meeting. And Corbyn has helped weaken the norm that you need your cabinet colleagues on board. I suspect unless May thinks she will actually have a leadership challenge triggered with enough MPs to depose her she will simply replace ministers who resign.

    I wouldn't rule out such a leadership challenge, however. I've got sizeable bets on her surviving the year, but if she goes I expect it will be quick - I suspect she'd stand down rather than fight a vote of no confidence since I suspect she'd learn quickly that enough MPs had already pledged to oppose her before MPs had put their letters in. We'll see, in any case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Foxy said:

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Nah, she is as stubborn as Corbyn. No amount of cabinet walkouts would get her to resign.
    They cannot keep resigning because her plans are crap and not have a VONC in her. It's already silly enough.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    TOPPING said:

    Hey @archer101au @Big_G_NorthWales @HYUFD and others (even Spitfire) great discussion on previous thread.

    I suppose it was between a hard brexiteer, a softer brexiteer and a practical conservative

    Hope that sums it up
    I prefer the term 'headbanger' :)
    You said it

    And for the avoidance of doubt I am and always will be a practical conservative
    I was talking about you ;)
    I can confidently say that on here and elsewhere you would be on your own on that comment
    Hey, it was a joke! After a short truce a few weeks back it is good to be back butting heads (or is that banging heads?) with you. I have a lot of respect for your views, even if I disagree with them. But May still sucks.
  • Foxy said:

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Nah, she is as stubborn as Corbyn. No amount of cabinet walkouts would get her to resign.
    If the cabinet aks her to go she will have no choice

    But they may still back her

    Like all of this wait and see and expect the unexpected
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Nah, she is as stubborn as Corbyn. No amount of cabinet walkouts would get her to resign.
    They cannot keep resigning because her plans are crap and not have a VONC in her. It's already silly enough.
    When they kick at your front door, how you gonna come?
    Hands on your head or on the trigger of your gun?

    https://youtu.be/hiQoq-wqZxg
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Another day of Brexit silliness draws to a close.

    Goodnight all
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,781

    Foxy said:

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Nah, she is as stubborn as Corbyn. No amount of cabinet walkouts would get her to resign.
    If the cabinet aks her to go she will have no choice

    But they may still back her

    Like all of this wait and see and expect the unexpected
    To be honest a simple betrayal or two resulting in Corbyn stealing the wealth of the hard-working will probably go unnoticed. Hard to imagine otherwise.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Foxy said:

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Nah, she is as stubborn as Corbyn. No amount of cabinet walkouts would get her to resign.
    I think that's right. Also, Esther was amazingly awful on Radio 4 over Universal Credit (failed to either deny or defend reports of £1800/year losses for families), so I think her resignation would be seen as not such a loss - Amber Rudd, coming on directly after her, answered the same questions perfectly sensibly. I've no idea whether AR's replies were accurate but they sounded credible.
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    At the risk of sounding like I'm repeating myself.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1050486402805305346?s=19
  • Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    It's back on again: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2018/10/11/student-union-seeks-ban-students-dressing-tories-fancy-dress/

    :D
    Actually, those do by and large seem quite sensible rules.
    I agree. It’s sensible to have guidelines for the rig, and the reasoning, everyone to chill out and have fun without offence caused is hardly news worthy.

    I recall Jamy came to the safe sex party starkers with a condom on his nose. We said, Jamy, what have you come as? He shrugged, fuck knows.
    These girls came in started laughing at him, one shrieked at him, why have you put that on your nose? Jamy shrugged, chance of rain.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    Foxy said:

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Nah, she is as stubborn as Corbyn. No amount of cabinet walkouts would get her to resign.
    If the cabinet aks her to go she will have no choice

    But they may still back her

    Like all of this wait and see and expect the unexpected
    I would like to believe that the Brexiteers will resign, but I have very little faith.

    However, the thing that everyone is ignoring is the trading relationship. Nothing appears to have been agreed here. It looks like the EU will offer a paper with a range of options with CETA as the base case but 'better' options if all the red lines are abandoned. But this is not an agreement of any sort, just a statement of principles. It is not a negotiated document. And CETA cannot happen while the backstop is in place.

    So even if May gets her way on the backstop she is going to find it very hard to convince anyone that the trade relationship even exists, when the default plan (CETA) still cannot be implemented and May is on record as saying she wants Chequers which won't be in the declaration. I suspect the tide will move against May's deal when it is apparent that really, nothing has actually been agreed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Scott_P said:
    If they are opposed, why would they need to think if they will walk over it?
  • TOPPING said:

    Hey @archer101au @Big_G_NorthWales @HYUFD and others (even Spitfire) great discussion on previous thread.

    I suppose it was between a hard brexiteer, a softer brexiteer and a practical conservative

    Hope that sums it up
    I prefer the term 'headbanger' :)
    You said it

    And for the avoidance of doubt I am and always will be a practical conservative
    I was talking about you ;)
    I can confidently say that on here and elsewhere you would be on your own on that comment
    Hey, it was a joke! After a short truce a few weeks back it is good to be back butting heads (or is that banging heads?) with you. I have a lot of respect for your views, even if I disagree with them. But May still sucks.
    I do respect your knowledge and maybe living in Australia influences your perspective.

    However, as a practical conservative I am frustrated with both the extremes in my party but I will always listen to argument, and sometime change my views. I do not like unnecessary language as some posters know and hopefully, I possess a degree of humility when I am wrong

    And I visited Australia on several occasions when my eldest lived in Christchurch, NZ and had great adventures in the process.

    However, my eldest lives with his Canadian wife in Vancouver and our days of long haul have come to an end, but so many great memories
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Scott_P said:
    Presumably the big plus for May is that the DUP will have no problem with the UK staying in a customs uni...er, arrangement, so it splits the DUP/ERG rejection front. It's also tempting for Labour MPs as it bears a striking similarity to Labour policy. The question is whether Tories will buy the "maybe more in due course, it's only a backstop" line - they would be unwise to do so IMO, as we shall all get used to a customs deal and reopening the issue will be anathema to most people.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Foxy said:

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Nah, she is as stubborn as Corbyn. No amount of cabinet walkouts would get her to resign.
    I think that's right. Also, Esther was amazingly awful on Radio 4 over Universal Credit (failed to either deny or defend reports of £1800/year losses for families), so I think her resignation would be seen as not such a loss - Amber Rudd, coming on directly after her, answered the same questions perfectly sensibly. I've no idea whether AR's replies were accurate but they sounded credible.
    Indeed, a few more resignations may well make way for the return of Amber, and perhaps a few more on that wing of the party who have been feeling out in the cold.
  • Foxy said:

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Nah, she is as stubborn as Corbyn. No amount of cabinet walkouts would get her to resign.
    I think that's right. Also, Esther was amazingly awful on Radio 4 over Universal Credit (failed to either deny or defend reports of £1800/year losses for families), so I think her resignation would be seen as not such a loss - Amber Rudd, coming on directly after her, answered the same questions perfectly sensibly. I've no idea whether AR's replies were accurate but they sounded credible.
    Is it true McVey said if people are losing money from the change they can take on more work to boost income? Has she actually said that into a mic?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Charles said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
    Nobody is going to *say* it's permanent.

    But it will be.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
    Given the lack of blood, do not look too hard. :D:D:D
    Although LauraK now tweeting that Downing Street on resignation watch..,
    I am shocked

    image

    I expect little from the spineless fools that inhabit Westmonster
    Javid is the one to watch. If he resigns.....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Charles said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
    Nobody is going to *say* it's permanent.

    But it will be.
    Pulling the wool over the eyes of the public over Europe will not wash this time.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,781

    Charles said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
    Nobody is going to *say* it's permanent.

    But it will be.
    Not a chance. There will be a continual divergence by treaty, and then over the long term a convergence by inclination.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Maybe it's possible that the climate will change in this way: TM is stoically getting on with an almost impossible task and some sort of agreement on a WA is at least thinkable. She is being bullied on every possible side by groups, some of then startlingly nasty, who are all correct in their own eyes, but who could never command consent of a majority and are in complete disagreement with each other; in most cases the others don't have to articulate a rational and coherent plan which could survive a moment's proper scrutiny (Labour, Boris, DUP, People's Vote....). In the absence of a plausible candidate maybe 2019 is a bit early for her departure. Maybe we should wait and see.

    TM can run down the clock putting the EU in panic mode and then in the new year, when everything is kicking off, move to accepting a Norway deal

    Just another theory
    The EU won't panic, they seem very confident we will give in, not without reason.
    The EU got this, we got this in the bag, air about them havnt they?
    Worrying.
    It only works if we do indeed give in. Their goal is not for us to have no deal, but I'd still put that as most likely. So in fact if that does occur, the EU's confidence will have been misplaced since no deal was not their aim, even though it is worse for us than them.
    You make it sound so Machiavellian. All I thought was, when people are running for President in the states, there’s this tipping point where they have the nomination in the bag, and they come over all chilled and smiley. All of a sudden Barnier, Juncker, etc have this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    Scott_P said:
    Presumably the big plus for May is that the DUP will have no problem with the UK staying in a customs uni...er, arrangement, so it splits the DUP/ERG rejection front. It's also tempting for Labour MPs as it bears a striking similarity to Labour policy. The question is whether Tories will buy the "maybe more in due course, it's only a backstop" line - they would be unwise to do so IMO, as we shall all get used to a customs deal and reopening the issue will be anathema to most people.
    They probably won't buy it, but frankly I think no Brexit is increasing in odds as a result, indeed I'd put it as more likely than a deal (since Labour are not going to back it, we've heard before how 'what's the point' of being in opposition if you don't vote to bring down the government, even if you support the policy and it is a national issue), and at the moment less likely than no deal brexit.
  • Mortimer said:

    Charles said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
    Nobody is going to *say* it's permanent.

    But it will be.
    Pulling the wool over the eyes of the public over Europe will not wash this time.
    I agree. They will not get away with ambiguity
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    In the real world I am beginning to suspect that events are about to overtake domestic politics. I Was visiting a large manufacturer in the midlands today. They are a core part of UK industry with £20m turnover. Like much of industry they are owned by offshore private equity. They are struggling to be allowed to invest despite a massive order book and premium products. Staff retention is low and employees age is high. How will Brexit help solve the real world issues this plant faces and the real risk of it being closed.

    Much of our wealth in this country is in the hands of people who don’t care about Brexit. We want control of our country but we have mortgaged much of it to pawnbrokers.

    There's a real problem with (some, not all) private equity owners of businesses.

    Read Glass House.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Scott_P said:
    I think it highly unlikely that Mrs May will lose a VNOC from her own MPs for the reasons that have been well rehearsed on here.

    But I think it is increasingly likely that the Government will lose a VNOC from all the MPs if the DUP and some of ERG desert them. This could happen in the near future before a deal is agreed with the EU.

    I think the most likely consequence is some sort of temporary "Government of National Unity" that has the confidence of the majority of the House, gets a delay on A50 and arranges a second referendum. Led by Dominic Grieve or someone respected by both major parties.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Tony said:

    At the risk of sounding like I'm repeating myself.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1050486402805305346?s=19

    James Forsyth reported that the issue between the DUP and Mays people is that the DUP think they are being told sugar coated untruths from May. They met Barnier and he explained in detail the checks that would be required, whereas Mays lot were saying no checks.
    I think this is where "heal the wounds" with Mays toppling comes from.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Maybe it's possible that the climate will change in this way: TM is stoically getting on with an almost impossible task and some sort of agreement on a WA is at least thinkable. She is being bullied on every possible side by groups, some of then startlingly nasty, who are all correct in their own eyes, but who could never command consent of a majority and are in complete disagreement with each other; in most cases the others don't have to articulate a rational and coherent plan which could survive a moment's proper scrutiny (Labour, Boris, DUP, People's Vote....). In the absence of a plausible candidate maybe 2019 is a bit early for her departure. Maybe we should wait and see.

    TM can run down the clock putting the EU in panic mode and then in the new year, when everything is kicking off, move to accepting a Norway deal

    Just another theory
    The EU won't panic, they seem very confident we will give in, not without reason.
    The EU got this, we got this in the bag, air about them havnt they?
    Worrying.
    It only works if we do indeed give in. Their goal is not for us to have no deal, but I'd still put that as most likely. So in fact if that does occur, the EU's confidence will have been misplaced since no deal was not their aim, even though it is worse for us than them.
    You make it sound so Machiavellian. All I thought was, when people are running for President in the states, there’s this tipping point where they have the nomination in the bag, and they come over all chilled and smiley. All of a sudden Barnier, Juncker, etc have this.
    I don't think it is Machiavellian at all - I think they think they have it in the bag, and they might, but just as they moan about the British not understanding the EU, this whole Brexit mess has arisen in the first place because the EU doesn't seem to understand the British either, and not expecting us to vote leave is a prime example that that is the case, so their confidence, or not, doesn't really mean they cannot be wrong. Not least because our parliamentary arithmetic simply does not add up at present under any of the options around, so Barnier and Juncker smugly assuming that of course Britain will fold might work, but with such fractured politics is no guarantee.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,898
    edited October 2018
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm trying to work out if there's a single person, *anywhere*, May could credibly claim to have convinced that Chequers is a good idea.

    I wonder.

    Michael Gove?
    No, that doesn't help. If he'd been against it along with other lowlifes Barnier, Juncker, Selmayr, Boris, Davis, Corbyn, Cable, Foster, that would have conclusively proved Chequers was a brilliant idea.

    As it is, the fact he supports it shows even a failed two-bit wannabe dictator who is mostly roaring drunk can be right at times.
    Lowlives?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.
  • DavidL said:

    I am trying to think how long it is since Scotland has played this badly. It’s not easy to be sure because we often play poorly but this seems a whole new level of crud.

    https://twitter.com/Munchbunch87/status/1050492555849293824
  • Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it highly unlikely that Mrs May will lose a VNOC from her own MPs for the reasons that have been well rehearsed on here.

    But I think it is increasingly likely that the Government will lose a VNOC from all the MPs if the DUP and some of ERG desert them. This could happen in the near future before a deal is agreed with the EU.

    I think the most likely consequence is some sort of temporary "Government of National Unity" that has the confidence of the majority of the House, gets a delay on A50 and arranges a second referendum. Led by Dominic Grieve or someone respected by both major parties.
    In this chaos Grieve would be as bad as Boris. They are both extremes.

    I do not see a path to your suggestion other than a second referendum taking it out of the fighting factions

    But that has lots of problems as well
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
    Nobody is going to *say* it's permanent.

    But it will be.
    That’s why the time limit is the issue that people are focused on
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    I think you might have misread the comment - he said 'and died'.

    If they died in WW2, then that would have been 1945 at the latest - or 73 years ago. To 'remember ' them, you'd have to probably be a minimum of 4 or 5. So 80 seems a reasonable ballpark.

    Unless I too have misunderstood ...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    kle4 said:

    ...this whole Brexit mess has arisen in the first place because the EU doesn't seem to understand the British either, and not expecting us to vote leave is a prime example that that is the case...

    We've had this conversation before but I don't think you can make that assertion. Merkel for example explicitly said during Cameron's negotiation that they didn't want to keep the UK as a member at any price. Already at that stage they were prepared for the possibility that he would lose.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    DavidL said:

    I am trying to think how long it is since Scotland has played this badly. It’s not easy to be sure because we often play poorly but this seems a whole new level of crud.

    https://twitter.com/Munchbunch87/status/1050492555849293824
    Yet it was an ex Celtic player that made the first goal and the current Celtic blunder kid that scored the winner for Israel.

    Funny old game.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited October 2018
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Maybe it's possible that the climatein

    Just another theory
    The EU won't panic, they seem very confident we will give in, not without reason.
    The EU got this, we got this in the bag, air about them havnt they?
    Worrying.
    It only works if we do indeed give in. Their goal is not for us to have no deal, but I'd still put that as most likely. So in fact if that does occur, the EU's confidence will have been misplaced since no deal was not their aim, even though it is worse for us than them.
    You make it sound so Machiavellian. All I thought was, when people are running for President in the states, there’s this tipping point where they have the nomination in the bag, and they come over all chilled and smiley. All of a sudden Barnier, Juncker, etc have this.
    I don't think it is Machiavellian at all - I think they think they have it in the bag, and they might, but just as they moan about the British not understanding the EU, this whole Brexit mess has arisen in the first place because the EU doesn't seem to understand the British either, and not expecting us to vote leave is a prime example that that is the case, so their confidence, or not, doesn't really mean they cannot be wrong. Not least because our parliamentary arithmetic simply does not add up at present under any of the options around, so Barnier and Juncker smugly assuming that of course Britain will fold might work, but with such fractured politics is no guarantee.
    We are in agreement then. They have the look that means they think they have it in the bag.

    By this stage you should know what they know, kay-el. There’s some people on here, I won’t mention names as that would be rude, who if you actually put vassal state on the ballot paper, they would tick it. To be fair to them, they care for their children and grandchildren in decent industrial jobs, and can’t bear to think of them losing those to become Amazon van drivers.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    *and died*

    Assuming they died in 45 and you can remember someone properly once you are 10 than means born in 1935 = 83 this year
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    Apologies (but you must be at least 72). Shhh

    My reasoning was that someone who died before 1946 and therefore fathered a child before 1946 (unless AI) would have a child aged at least 72 years old.

    My point wasn't so much about the arithmetic (which I acknowledge was wrong) but the fact that most people wearing a poppy did not have a personal memory of anyone who died in WW1 or WW2.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    kle4 said:

    ...this whole Brexit mess has arisen in the first place because the EU doesn't seem to understand the British either, and not expecting us to vote leave is a prime example that that is the case...

    We've had this conversation before but I don't think you can make that assertion. Merkel for example explicitly said during Cameron's negotiation that they didn't want to keep the UK as a member at any price. Already at that stage they were prepared for the possibility that he would lose.
    Would think Merkel wouldn’t enjoy the Uk staying in now - a recaltrant drag on integration with renewed sullenness and reluctance.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited October 2018

    kle4 said:

    ...this whole Brexit mess has arisen in the first place because the EU doesn't seem to understand the British either, and not expecting us to vote leave is a prime example that that is the case...

    We've had this conversation before but I don't think you can make that assertion. Merkel for example explicitly said during Cameron's negotiation that they didn't want to keep the UK as a member at any price. Already at that stage they were prepared for the possibility that he would lose.
    That some prepared for the possibility doesn't negate the general point. Not every leaver said everything would be easy and the EU would roll over (yes, plenty did) but that doesn't stop people claiming the British as a whole don't understand the EU because some did say it, and just because some might understand the British position, or thought the outcome of the referendum was a possibility, doesn't speak as to whether they generally understand us, or us them. In any case, any who claim the British don't understand the EU are almost by definition admitting the reverse applies, since they don't understand how we don't understand.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606

    Revealed: Princess Eugenie and her fiancé Jack Brooksbank are both related to... the same slave-trading conman

    Slave-trafficker Edward Lascelles made a fortune buying and selling Africans

    He locked them up for months on so-called factory ships on which many died

    Eugenie and Jack Brooksbank are distantly related to the 18th-century character

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-6258387/Princess-Eugenie-fianc-Jack-Brooksbank-related-slave-trading-conman.html

    Abolition the monarchy now.

    Something we can agree with.
    Crooks and scoundrels the lot of them.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208


    Canada was starting from a point where it and the EU had completely different standards, and the time taken was in working out how to bring them closer together. By contrast, standards between the EU and UK are already completely aligned. There should for the moment to be next to nothing to sort out.

    That's fine as long as we decide never to diverge. In which case we might as well stay in the Single Market, if not the EU itself and reap the benefits. The wish to diverge causes all the problems, including the NI backstop.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    valleyboy said:

    Revealed: Princess Eugenie and her fiancé Jack Brooksbank are both related to... the same slave-trading conman

    Slave-trafficker Edward Lascelles made a fortune buying and selling Africans

    He locked them up for months on so-called factory ships on which many died

    Eugenie and Jack Brooksbank are distantly related to the 18th-century character

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-6258387/Princess-Eugenie-fianc-Jack-Brooksbank-related-slave-trading-conman.html

    Abolition the monarchy now.

    Something we can agree with.
    Crooks and scoundrels the lot of them.
    How dare people be related to someone who did something bad!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it highly unlikely that Mrs May will lose a VNOC from her own MPs for the reasons that have been well rehearsed on here.

    But I think it is increasingly likely that the Government will lose a VNOC from all the MPs if the DUP and some of ERG desert them. This could happen in the near future before a deal is agreed with the EU.

    I think the most likely consequence is some sort of temporary "Government of National Unity" that has the confidence of the majority of the House, gets a delay on A50 and arranges a second referendum. Led by Dominic Grieve or someone respected by both major parties.
    In this chaos Grieve would be as bad as Boris. They are both extremes.

    I do not see a path to your suggestion other than a second referendum taking it out of the fighting factions

    But that has lots of problems as well
    Jeremy Corbyn is the natural healer in that situation - no strong views on Brexit either way :)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    edited October 2018

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it highly unlikely that Mrs May will lose a VNOC from her own MPs for the reasons that have been well rehearsed on here.

    But I think it is increasingly likely that the Government will lose a VNOC from all the MPs if the DUP and some of ERG desert them. This could happen in the near future before a deal is agreed with the EU.

    I think the most likely consequence is some sort of temporary "Government of National Unity" that has the confidence of the majority of the House, gets a delay on A50 and arranges a second referendum. Led by Dominic Grieve or someone respected by both major parties.
    In this chaos Grieve would be as bad as Boris. They are both extremes.

    I do not see a path to your suggestion other than a second referendum taking it out of the fighting factions

    But that has lots of problems as well
    Mine was a path to a second referendum. In the event of the Government falling, MPs have to take control and someone has to lead them who is acceptable to the majority. I suggest Grieve may be. The alternative is genuine chaos/
    EDIT - or Corbyn as NP suggests.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    I think you might have misread the comment - he said 'and died'.

    If they died in WW2, then that would have been 1945 at the latest - or 73 years ago. To 'remember ' them, you'd have to probably be a minimum of 4 or 5. So 80 seems a reasonable ballpark.

    Unless I too have misunderstood ...
    It depends on what is meant by memory. My Great Grandfather died in 1915, but my Grandfather's life was profoundly changed as a result of losing his father aged 14. Even though he too died 20 years ago, I have a very clear mental picture of the man. 103 years later, I try to live up to his legacy. I wear his wedding ring, which came back in his personal effects from Gallipolli.

    Echoes and ripples of memory can travel time.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606

    Foxy said:

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Nah, she is as stubborn as Corbyn. No amount of cabinet walkouts would get her to resign.
    I think that's right. Also, Esther was amazingly awful on Radio 4 over Universal Credit (failed to either deny or defend reports of £1800/year losses for families), so I think her resignation would be seen as not such a loss - Amber Rudd, coming on directly after her, answered the same questions perfectly sensibly. I've no idea whether AR's replies were accurate but they sounded credible.
    Is it true McVey said if people are losing money from the change they can take on more work to boost income? Has she actually said that into a mic?
    McVey was appalling on Radio 4. Total arrogance and disregard for 3m people who are likely to he disadvantaged. She made no mention of people taking on extra work in that dreadful interview.
  • TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    I am trying to think how long it is since Scotland has played this badly. It’s not easy to be sure because we often play poorly but this seems a whole new level of crud.

    https://twitter.com/Munchbunch87/status/1050492555849293824
    Yet it was an ex Celtic player that made the first goal and the current Celtic blunder kid that scored the winner for Israel.

    Funny old game.
    Now done all the railways within and south of the Central Belt - with the sole exception of Stranraer due to the stability issues at Ayr station!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it highly unlikely that Mrs May will lose a VNOC from her own MPs for the reasons that have been well rehearsed on here.

    But I think it is increasingly likely that the Government will lose a VNOC from all the MPs if the DUP and some of ERG desert them. This could happen in the near future before a deal is agreed with the EU.

    I think the most likely consequence is some sort of temporary "Government of National Unity" that has the confidence of the majority of the House, gets a delay on A50 and arranges a second referendum. Led by Dominic Grieve or someone respected by both major parties.
    In this chaos Grieve would be as bad as Boris. They are both extremes.

    I do not see a path to your suggestion other than a second referendum taking it out of the fighting factions

    But that has lots of problems as well
    Mine was a path to a second referendum. In the event of the Government falling, MPs have to take control and someone has to lead them who is acceptable to the majority. I suggest Grieve may be. The alternative is genuine chaos/
    In the event of the Government falling, back channels between the palace, civil service and party structures determine this. Not the MPs directly.

    Graham Brady is likely to be more influential than any other MP.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    kle4 said:

    valleyboy said:

    Revealed: Princess Eugenie and her fiancé Jack Brooksbank are both related to... the same slave-trading conman

    Slave-trafficker Edward Lascelles made a fortune buying and selling Africans

    He locked them up for months on so-called factory ships on which many died

    Eugenie and Jack Brooksbank are distantly related to the 18th-century character

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-6258387/Princess-Eugenie-fianc-Jack-Brooksbank-related-slave-trading-conman.html

    Abolition the monarchy now.

    Something we can agree with.
    Crooks and scoundrels the lot of them.
    How dare people be related to someone who did something bad!
    None of my family were slave traders.
  • Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    Apologies (but you must be at least 72). Shhh

    My reasoning was that someone who died before 1946 and therefore fathered a child before 1946 (unless AI) would have a child aged at least 72 years old.

    My point wasn't so much about the arithmetic (which I acknowledge was wrong) but the fact that most people wearing a poppy did not have a personal memory of anyone who died in WW1 or WW2.

    I was brought up with stories of my grandfather who was decorated for his bravery in the first world war. He died in 1936, 8 years before I was born, but his photographs were precious to us and I have his portrait in full miltary uniform displayed in the dining room.

    My grandchildren ask of him and his service and are fascinated about his life.

    Also I remember my Uncle Jim who lost his arm in WW1 in France.

    Our family proudly wear there poppies not just for our family members but all those lost at war
  • Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it highly unlikely that Mrs May will lose a VNOC from her own MPs for the reasons that have been well rehearsed on here.

    But I think it is increasingly likely that the Government will lose a VNOC from all the MPs if the DUP and some of ERG desert them. This could happen in the near future before a deal is agreed with the EU.

    I think the most likely consequence is some sort of temporary "Government of National Unity" that has the confidence of the majority of the House, gets a delay on A50 and arranges a second referendum. Led by Dominic Grieve or someone respected by both major parties.
    In this chaos Grieve would be as bad as Boris. They are both extremes.

    I do not see a path to your suggestion other than a second referendum taking it out of the fighting factions

    But that has lots of problems as well
    Jeremy Corbyn is the natural healer in that situation - no strong views on Brexit either way :)
    With respect Nick, I assume this is tongue in cheek

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited October 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    Cut, I see the point was made.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited October 2018
    valleyboy said:

    kle4 said:

    valleyboy said:

    Revealed: Princess Eugenie and her fiancé Jack Brooksbank are both related to... the same slave-trading conman

    Slave-trafficker Edward Lascelles made a fortune buying and selling Africans

    He locked them up for months on so-called factory ships on which many died

    Eugenie and Jack Brooksbank are distantly related to the 18th-century character

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-6258387/Princess-Eugenie-fianc-Jack-Brooksbank-related-slave-trading-conman.html

    Abolition the monarchy now.

    Something we can agree with.
    Crooks and scoundrels the lot of them.
    How dare people be related to someone who did something bad!
    None of my family were slave traders.
    And? Are the sins of family members from hundreds of years ago our sins now? And it is so many generations ago there must be hundreds of people one is related to from that far back, and some of them are bound to have done something terrible.

    And when you say none of your family were slave traders how far back are you going? I'd not have a clue if my great great great great grandfather's cousin was a slave trader, or whatever. But it would still be my relation who did it, oh how shall I live with the shame?

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it highly unlikely that Mrs May will lose a VNOC from her own MPs for the reasons that have been well rehearsed on here.

    But I think it is increasingly likely that the Government will lose a VNOC from all the MPs if the DUP and some of ERG desert them. This could happen in the near future before a deal is agreed with the EU.

    I think the most likely consequence is some sort of temporary "Government of National Unity" that has the confidence of the majority of the House, gets a delay on A50 and arranges a second referendum. Led by Dominic Grieve or someone respected by both major parties.
    In this chaos Grieve would be as bad as Boris. They are both extremes.

    I do not see a path to your suggestion other than a second referendum taking it out of the fighting factions

    But that has lots of problems as well
    Mine was a path to a second referendum. In the event of the Government falling, MPs have to take control and someone has to lead them who is acceptable to the majority. I suggest Grieve may be. The alternative is genuine chaos/
    In the event of the Government falling, back channels between the palace, civil service and party structures determine this. Not the MPs directly.

    Graham Brady is likely to be more influential than any other MP.
    But he will need support from opposition party MPs. The Speaker will also be influential. I accept it will be done by back channels rather than on the floor of the House but it will need to demonstrate the support of a majority of MPs even if it's not in a formal vote.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
    Given the lack of blood, do not look too hard. :D:D:D
    Although LauraK now tweeting that Downing Street on resignation watch..,
    I am shocked

    image

    I expect little from the spineless fools that inhabit Westmonster
    Javid is the one to watch. If he resigns.....
    Only serious if lord Falconer resigns with him...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
    Given the lack of blood, do not look too hard. :D:D:D
    Although LauraK now tweeting that Downing Street on resignation watch..,
    I am shocked

    image

    I expect little from the spineless fools that inhabit Westmonster
    Javid is the one to watch. If he resigns.....
    Only serious if lord Falconer resigns with him...
    Hasn’t he gone yet?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    GIN1138 said:

    She’s the one who misrepresented her skill set on her CV. And who’s key claim is she has a womb and isn’t afraid to use it, correct?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    If TM suffers cabinet resignations then I believe she will need to stand down.

    Conversely if she keeps the cabinet on board then she carries on

    Nah, she is as stubborn as Corbyn. No amount of cabinet walkouts would get her to resign.
    They cannot keep resigning because her plans are crap and not have a VONC in her. It's already silly enough.
    Well yes: BJ and DD should have organised the letters when they resigned. They can't say "We hate the plan, and we're resigning because of it, and Theresa May should remain Prime Minister."
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited October 2018
    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    Apologies (but you must be at least 72). Shhh

    My reasoning was that someone who died before 1946 and therefore fathered a child before 1946 (unless AI) would have a child aged at least 72 years old.

    My point wasn't so much about the arithmetic (which I acknowledge was wrong) but the fact that most people wearing a poppy did not have a personal memory of anyone who died in WW1 or WW2.

    Fair enough. I missed the “and died” bit. In my defence I am on very strong painkillers so probably away with the fairies.

    Though why couldn’t one wear a poppy to remember those who fought in that war, regardless of when they died?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    I confess I forgot Leadsom was even in the Cabinet (or the nebulous 'attends Cabinet' designation even).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    If leadsome and McVey go, are we heading for some kind of National coalition? Seems extremely unlikely, but we live in extremely unlikely times.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2018
    Clive James is 79 and his father died in a plane accident just after the end of the Second World War having fought in it. But he can't remember him even though he did meet him.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Jonathan said:

    If leadsome and McVey go, are we heading for some kind of National coalition? Seems extremely unlikely, but we live in extremely unlikely times.

    Between who ? Chukka and Soubry ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited October 2018
    Jonathan said:

    If leadsome and McVey go, are we heading for some kind of National coalition? Seems extremely unlikely, but we live in extremely unlikely times.

    Something hugely improbable has to happen purely on the basis that, well, all outcomes are looking pretty improbable for different reasons. My problem with the national coalition one is I presume Labour would need to be involved and given, despite current polling showing a generally even picture, Corbyn and co can practically taste victory if the government collapses in a Brexit mess, I don't know why they'd participate.

    It is shaping up to be another of those weeks of 'Can May make it to Monday?' speculation. Even the inner Cabinet don't seem particularly on board with the latest plan, how can anyone not be brought down by that?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    edited October 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    "fought and died in the 1939-45 war."

    So, if they died in 1945, you would have to have been born in about 1938 to remember them.

    Edit to add: I see everyone else has made this point. So please just ignore this post. In fact, f*ck it, I think I'll delete it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    If leadsome and McVey go, are we heading for some kind of National coalition? Seems extremely unlikely, but we live in extremely unlikely times.

    Something hugely improbable has to happen purely on the basis that, well, all outcomes are looking pretty improbable for different reasons. My problem with the national coalition one is I presume Labour would need to be involved and given, despite current polling showing a generally even picture, Corbyn and co can practically taste victory if the government collapses in a Brexit mess, I don't know why they'd participate.

    It is shaping up to be another of those weeks of 'Can May make it to Monday?' speculation. Even the inner Cabinet don't seem particularly on board with the latest plan, how can anyone not be brought down by that?
    Who is better placed to form a government and get a Brexit deal through the Commons than May?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited October 2018
    Roseanne Barr is currently been interviewed by joe rogan....she is making Elon musks appearance look like a perfectly uninteresting outing.

    Apparently twitter is run by the government to cause tribal warfare.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Cyclefree said:


    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    Apologies (but you must be at least 72). Shhh

    My reasoning was that someone who died before 1946 and therefore fathered a child before 1946 (unless AI) would have a child aged at least 72 years old.

    My point wasn't so much about the arithmetic (which I acknowledge was wrong) but the fact that most people wearing a poppy did not have a personal memory of anyone who died in WW1 or WW2.

    Fair enough. I missed the “and died” bit. In my defence I am on very strong painkillers so probably away with the fairies.

    Though why couldn’t one wear a poppy to remember those who fought in that war, regardless of when they died?

    It's a few threads back now but my point was that if you wore a poppy to honour those who fought in past wars (regardless of whether you could remember them) why not include the Boer war or 1066? If, however, you wore a poppy to remind people how bloody wars are, use a picture of a mutilated child or a devasted city rather than a poppy. Poppies are too pretty.

    It was a deliberately provocative comment that provoked no response at all - until you claimed to be over 72!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    If leadsome and McVey go, are we heading for some kind of National coalition? Seems extremely unlikely, but we live in extremely unlikely times.

    Something hugely improbable has to happen purely on the basis that, well, all outcomes are looking pretty improbable for different reasons. My problem with the national coalition one is I presume Labour would need to be involved and given, despite current polling showing a generally even picture, Corbyn and co can practically taste victory if the government collapses in a Brexit mess, I don't know why they'd participate.

    It is shaping up to be another of those weeks of 'Can May make it to Monday?' speculation. Even the inner Cabinet don't seem particularly on board with the latest plan, how can anyone not be brought down by that?
    Who is better placed to form a government and get a Brexit deal through the Commons than May?
    I grant you that, but even so there has to come a point where someone else has to have a go. It's just damn silly that so many in her own party are so opposed to her, and it's not like we get that many fulsome defences of her, most of the rest seem like they'd go with whoever was in charge, so it's just a constant stream of intense criticism, guarded language and half hearted supported from the Cabinet, and not being any closer it seems to coming up with something that will work.

    And frankly there may not be others who are better placed to get a Brexit deal through the Commons that May, but since I don't think she can get one through it's pretty moot at this point as to someone else not being up to it either.

    I cannot see why May would resign at this point even with more resignations if she has not resigned already, so it will take someone else acting to shift her, but honestly we might as well see if someone can surprise us and do better than expected, since watching a failure in slow motion doesn't prevent the failure.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Live phone polling has just started in PA 1, VA 10, MN 8:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html
  • Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    Apologies (but you must be at least 72). Shhh

    My reasoning was that someone who died before 1946 and therefore fathered a child before 1946 (unless AI) would have a child aged at least 72 years old.

    My point wasn't so much about the arithmetic (which I acknowledge was wrong) but the fact that most people wearing a poppy did not have a personal memory of anyone who died in WW1 or WW2.

    Fair enough. I missed the “and died” bit. In my defence I am on very strong painkillers so probably away with the fairies.

    Though why couldn’t one wear a poppy to remember those who fought in that war, regardless of when they died?

    It's a few threads back now but my point was that if you wore a poppy to honour those who fought in past wars (regardless of whether you could remember them) why not include the Boer war or 1066? If, however, you wore a poppy to remind people how bloody wars are, use a picture of a mutilated child or a devasted city rather than a poppy. Poppies are too pretty.

    It was a deliberately provocative comment that provoked no response at all - until you claimed to be over 72!
    They didnt think that poppies were pretty in Flanders Field
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    edited October 2018
    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    Apologies (but you must be at least 72). Shhh

    My reasoning was that someone who died before 1946 and therefore fathered a child before 1946 (unless AI) would have a child aged at least 72 years old.

    My point wasn't so much about the arithmetic (which I acknowledge was wrong) but the fact that most people wearing a poppy did not have a personal memory of anyone who died in WW1 or WW2.

    Fair enough. I missed the “and died” bit. In my defence I am on very strong painkillers so probably away with the fairies.

    Though why couldn’t one wear a poppy to remember those who fought in that war, regardless of when they died?

    It's a few threads back now but my point was that if you wore a poppy to honour those who fought in past wars (regardless of whether you could remember them) why not include the Boer war or 1066? If, however, you wore a poppy to remind people how bloody wars are, use a picture of a mutilated child or a devasted city rather than a poppy. Poppies are too pretty.

    It was a deliberately provocative comment that provoked no response at all - until you claimed to be over 72!
    I am old enough to remember Remembrance Sunday, with Boer War veterans parading before the WW1 veterans.

    Australians often wear Rosemary in place of a poppy.

    https://www.awm.gov.au/index.php/commemoration/customs-and-ceremony/rosemary



  • Time to bid everyone a good nights rest

    Good night folks
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    If leadsome and McVey go, are we heading for some kind of National coalition? Seems extremely unlikely, but we live in extremely unlikely times.

    Something hugely improbable has to happen purely on the basis that, well, all outcomes are looking pretty improbable for different reasons. My problem with the national coalition one is I presume Labour would need to be involved and given, despite current polling showing a generally even picture, Corbyn and co can practically taste victory if the government collapses in a Brexit mess, I don't know why they'd participate.

    It is shaping up to be another of those weeks of 'Can May make it to Monday?' speculation. Even the inner Cabinet don't seem particularly on board with the latest plan, how can anyone not be brought down by that?
    I don't think Corbyn would participate for the reason you give. But plenty of Labour Remainers who want a second referendum would. A GE in those circumstances would be chaotic.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    I went to a good talk tonight "How to rig an election" by Prof Nic Cheeseman. You can watch it here: https://www.facebook.com/unibirmingham/videos/507199239760343/
  • Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    Apologies (but you must be at least 72). Shhh

    My reasoning was that someone who died before 1946 and therefore fathered a child before 1946 (unless AI) would have a child aged at least 72 years old.

    My point wasn't so much about the arithmetic (which I acknowledge was wrong) but the fact that most people wearing a poppy did not have a personal memory of anyone who died in WW1 or WW2.

    Fair enough. I missed the “and died” bit. In my defence I am on very strong painkillers so probably away with the fairies.

    Though why couldn’t one wear a poppy to remember those who fought in that war, regardless of when they died?

    It's a few threads back now but my point was that if you wore a poppy to honour those who fought in past wars (regardless of whether you could remember them) why not include the Boer war or 1066? If, however, you wore a poppy to remind people how bloody wars are, use a picture of a mutilated child or a devasted city rather than a poppy. Poppies are too pretty.

    It was a deliberately provocative comment that provoked no response at all - until you claimed to be over 72!
    I am old enough to remember Remembrance Sunday, with Boer War veterans parading before the WW1 veterans.

    And me
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    Apologies (but you must be at least 72). Shhh

    My reasoning was that someone who died before 1946 and therefore fathered a child before 1946 (unless AI) would have a child aged at least 72 years old.

    My point wasn't so much about the arithmetic (which I acknowledge was wrong) but the fact that most people wearing a poppy did not have a personal memory of anyone who died in WW1 or WW2.

    Fair enough. I missed the “and died” bit. In my defence I am on very strong painkillers so probably away with the fairies.

    Though why couldn’t one wear a poppy to remember those who fought in that war, regardless of when they died?

    It's a few threads back now but my point was that if you wore a poppy to honour those who fought in past wars (regardless of whether you could remember them) why not include the Boer war or 1066? If, however, you wore a poppy to remind people how bloody wars are, use a picture of a mutilated child or a devasted city rather than a poppy. Poppies are too pretty.

    It was a deliberately provocative comment that provoked no response at all - until you claimed to be over 72!
    I am nowhere near 72. Though at this precise moment because of the pain in my arm and shoulder I feel about 102!

    But while I take your point that poppies are pretty, I think they are good at representing both the sadness of the blood spilt (red) and the fact that life does continue and survive, as the poppy does, even in the most unpromising ground.

    So both sadness at the waste and hope for a better future.

    I agree that one should not get over maudlin. A moment of quiet reflection is better than over the top weeping and wailing. But it is good, sometimes, collectively, to stop and think and remember that there is more to life than shopping and trashy TV programmes.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    If leadsome and McVey go, are we heading for some kind of National coalition? Seems extremely unlikely, but we live in extremely unlikely times.

    Something hugely improbable has to happen purely on the basis that, well, all outcomes are looking pretty improbable for different reasons. My problem with the national coalition one is I presume Labour would need to be involved and given, despite current polling showing a generally even picture, Corbyn and co can practically taste victory if the government collapses in a Brexit mess, I don't know why they'd participate.

    It is shaping up to be another of those weeks of 'Can May make it to Monday?' speculation. Even the inner Cabinet don't seem particularly on board with the latest plan, how can anyone not be brought down by that?
    Should she lose the support of the DUP on matters such as the Budget, which as things stands seems more than likely, then surely that would be the catalyst for a challenge? If a hapless PM cannot govern but still refuses to resign, who can really criticise a move to replace her to see if someone else can?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it highly unlikely that Mrs May will lose a VNOC from her own MPs for the reasons that have been well rehearsed on here.

    But I think it is increasingly likely that the Government will lose a VNOC from all the MPs if the DUP and some of ERG desert them. This could happen in the near future before a deal is agreed with the EU.

    I think the most likely consequence is some sort of temporary "Government of National Unity" that has the confidence of the majority of the House, gets a delay on A50 and arranges a second referendum. Led by Dominic Grieve or someone respected by both major parties.
    In this chaos Grieve would be as bad as Boris. They are both extremes.

    I do not see a path to your suggestion other than a second referendum taking it out of the fighting factions

    But that has lots of problems as well
    Jeremy Corbyn is the natural healer in that situation - no strong views on Brexit either way :)
    I reckon he spoilt his paper by voting for both Remain and Leave.....

    "Of course I voted to Remain...."
  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 297
    edited October 2018
    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    Apologies (but you must be at least 72). Shhh

    My reasoning was that someone who died before 1946 and therefore fathered a child before 1946 (unless AI) would have a child aged at least 72 years old.

    My point wasn't so much about the arithmetic (which I acknowledge was wrong) but the fact that most people wearing a poppy did not have a personal memory of anyone who died in WW1 or WW2.

    Fair enough. I missed the “and died” bit. In my defence I am on very strong painkillers so probably away with the fairies.

    Though why couldn’t one wear a poppy to remember those who fought in that war, regardless of when they died?

    It's a few threads back now but my point was that if you wore a poppy to honour those who fought in past wars (regardless of whether you could remember them) why not include the Boer war or 1066? If, however, you wore a poppy to remind people how bloody wars are, use a picture of a mutilated child or a devasted city rather than a poppy. Poppies are too pretty.

    It was a deliberately provocative comment that provoked no response at all - until you claimed to be over 72!
    Poppies are used because they were the first flowers that grew from the graves of the dead soldiers, and they commemorate those who fought and died in all wars
  • Woman in the audience of Question Time from Edinburgh.

    "I want to leave, it's a load of scaremongering, I think we'd thrive".

    ....She's talking about Scottish Independence not Brexit in case anyone was confused 😂.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dadge said:

    I went to a good talk tonight "How to rig an election" by Prof Nic Cheeseman. You can watch it here: https://www.facebook.com/unibirmingham/videos/507199239760343/

    +1
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    edited October 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Barnesian (fpt): “you'd have to be over 80 to remember anyone who fought and died in the 1939-45 war . So wearing a poppy can't be personal.”

    What rubbish. My father was a Squadron Leader during WW2 and I am a long long way from being 80.

    Apologies (but you must be at least 72). Shhh

    My reasoning was that someone who died before 1946 and therefore fathered a child before 1946 (unless AI) would have a child aged at least 72 years old.

    My point wasn't so much about the arithmetic (which I acknowledge was wrong) but the fact that most people wearing a poppy did not have a personal memory of anyone who died in WW1 or WW2.

    Fair enough. I missed the “and died” bit. In my defence I am on very strong painkillers so probably away with the fairies.

    Though why couldn’t one wear a poppy to remember those who fought in that war, regardless of when they died?

    It's a few threads back now but my point was that if you wore a poppy to honour those who fought in past wars (regardless of whether you could remember them) why not include the Boer war or 1066? If, however, you wore a poppy to remind people how bloody wars are, use a picture of a mutilated child or a devasted city rather than a poppy. Poppies are too pretty.

    It was a deliberately provocative comment that provoked no response at all - until you claimed to be over 72!
    I am nowhere near 72. Though at this precise moment because of the pain in my arm and shoulder I feel about 102!

    But while I take your point that poppies are pretty, I think they are good at representing both the sadness of the blood spilt (red) and the fact that life does continue and survive, as the poppy does, even in the most unpromising ground.

    So both sadness at the waste and hope for a better future.

    I agree that one should not get over maudlin. A moment of quiet reflection is better than over the top weeping and wailing. But it is good, sometimes, collectively, to stop and think and remember that there is more to life than shopping and trashy TV programmes.

    Agreed

    And I hope you are taking medical advice on your arm and shoulder and not just braving it out.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    AndyJS said:

    Live phone polling has just started in PA 1, VA 10, MN 8:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html

    Previous polling in Nevada was typical. Slightly over 2% of those phoned responded. On the basis of the slightly over 2% who are untypical enough to answer a robophone poll, it is neck and neck. But how on earth can the responses to a question which nearly 49 out of 50 choose to ignore lead to a claimed margin of error of only 4%? The assumption that the wholly exceptional few who give a response is typical of the mainstream who do not is a huge one. Indeed, so exceptional is the behaviour of those who answer robophone polls that their opinions are probably as atypical of the mainstream voter as those of us political animals who choose to post here.
This discussion has been closed.