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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 54% chance that TMay will go next year with

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited October 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 54% chance that TMay will go next year with Sajid Javid the 14% favourite to replace her

Charts from the excellent Batdata.io site which monitors the main political markets on the Betfair exchange updating its charts2 4/7.

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Comments

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    All alone in this lonely thread :(
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    All alone in this lonely thread :(

    Only been open for one minute but you've beaten TSE for first
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    All alone in this lonely thread :(

    Only been open for one minute but you've beaten TSE for first
    It is a knack I have :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,179
    I was amazed only 54% think she will last beyond next year, but I see 11% think this year, which makes it more reasonable.
  • What's remarkable is how stable 2022 or later has been.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,179
    edited October 2018
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Well i hope T May tells them to fuck right off. The DUP cannot be allowed to influence the process
    Last time I looked, the DUP democratically represents one of the four component countries of the United Kingdom. They represent their loyalist voters in Westminster. (That Sinn Fein chooses not to take their seats is for them to consider. But for now, the only voice of Northern Ireland in Westminster is the DUP, whose members voted overwhelmingly to Brexit.) As democratically elected representatives, they have every right - probably more so - to "influence the process" than the arch-Remainers of Soubry and Clarke and Grieve and Wollaston, who were elected as Conservative MPs under a Manifesto that pledged to Brexit whilst exiting the CU.

    Theresa May gave the DUP their power by calling a wholly unnecesary General Election. The DUP are happily playing the hand dealt them. If our Government took some lessons and played with the same steely determination in their dealings with Brussels, we might have got somewhere sooner. Indeed, Cameron might not have lost the Referendum in the first place.

    Some of the attitudes expressed about the Northern Irish on this site in recent days have shown up a number of the posters on this site in a very poor light.
    IS it 11? DUP votes that could screw the whole process? I'd rather T May called A GE .
    What are the DUP screwing? All the DUP are asking for is to be treated the same as everyone else in the UK. That's entirely reasonable!

    The only variances in laws between GB and NI should be due to devolution and because NI have asked for a change, not because voters outside of NI have demanded one.
    But same does not apply for Scotland , so explain that one. Parliament voted for second referendum but were crapped on by Tories.
    PS what is this GB, it is UK
    GB is rUK excluding NI.
    GB appears nowhere, it is United Kingdom and NI
    Err...Since when?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,179
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Well i hope T May tells them to fuck right off. The DUP cannot be allowed to influence the process
    While I don’t hold with groups holding the whole of the country to ransome in this case it looks like they are being asked to accept rules over which they will have no say....which does seem a bit rum...
    Same as Scotland, which is even more rum
    The sooner the LOL bring down the Tories the better.
    If not for Scotland would the Tories not be in power right now?
    Idiots for sure, ably assisted by their dopey partners Scottish Labour regional office who gave them their votes. Bigger idiots you could not find.
    Be interesting to see what happens if we get an early GE again. I know the polls don't show that much movement, but given the circumstances that would provoke an early GE, Scotland would prove interesting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,179

    What's remarkable is how stable 2022 or later has been.

    I guess because if she can make it past next year, she is pretty well set.
  • kle4 said:

    What's remarkable is how stable 2022 or later has been.

    I guess because if she can make it past next year, she is pretty well set.
    The fact she's made it through this year should have increased the odds of getting through next year but it doesn't seem to have done so though. All the this year odds seem to have transferred to next year without any shifting onto later.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,179

    kle4 said:

    What's remarkable is how stable 2022 or later has been.

    I guess because if she can make it past next year, she is pretty well set.
    The fact she's made it through this year should have increased the odds of getting through next year but it doesn't seem to have done so though. All the this year odds seem to have transferred to next year without any shifting onto later.
    Because next year is crunch point, the actual start date, be in land of milk of honey or calamity.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    What's remarkable is how stable 2022 or later has been.

    I guess because if she can make it past next year, she is pretty well set.
    The fact she's made it through this year should have increased the odds of getting through next year but it doesn't seem to have done so though. All the this year odds seem to have transferred to next year without any shifting onto later.
    Because next year is crunch point, the actual start date, be in land of milk of honey or calamity.
    Indeed but this year had crunch points too. She's survived this year (so far) but has not improved her odds of getting through this year. She should have.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    All alone in this lonely thread :(

    Only been open for one minute but you've beaten TSE for first
    Shall I save him the effort and call for a judge-led inquiry?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    May has shown a remarkable capacity for kicking the can *just far enough* down the road to fight another day.

    I think that by this time next week, that will no longer be possible.

    May has to stop kicking the can, and start kicking. Because otherwise events will overtake her and she'll be in the front seat of a runaway Brexit with nobody willing or able to help her.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    Maybe he got confused and was actually talking about Mr and Mrs Babcock’s planned trip to IKEA.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    Not even I am mad enough to predict that Tory cabinet ministers might actually stand on principle. They will all back May. All they care about is positioning for the leadership.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,179

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    Not even I am mad enough to predict that Tory cabinet ministers might actually stand on principle. They will all back May. All they care about is positioning for the leadership.
    Positioning for the leadership does not, even at this stage, rule out resigning, as we have seen previously.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    Not even I am mad enough to predict that Tory cabinet ministers might actually stand on principle. They will all back May. All they care about is positioning for the leadership.
    What is he difference between a politician and a jellyfish?

    One is a creature with a nasty sting and no backbone.

    The other is a marine creature.

    (With apologies to Nick Palmer!)
  • ydoethur said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    Not even I am mad enough to predict that Tory cabinet ministers might actually stand on principle. They will all back May. All they care about is positioning for the leadership.
    What is he difference between a politician and a jellyfish?

    One is a creature with a nasty sting and no backbone.

    The other is a marine creature.

    (With apologies to Nick Palmer!)
    Reminds me of this joke.

    What's the difference between a Non Executive Director and a supermarket trolley?

    The trolley has a mind of its own.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Hey @archer101au @Big_G_NorthWales @HYUFD and others (even Spitfire) great discussion on previous thread.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"
  • Great to see JRM chances sliding away.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    Not even I am mad enough to predict that Tory cabinet ministers might actually stand on principle. They will all back May. All they care about is positioning for the leadership.
    What is he difference between a politician and a jellyfish?

    One is a creature with a nasty sting and no backbone.

    The other is a marine creature.

    (With apologies to Nick Palmer!)
    Reminds me of this joke.

    What's the difference between a Non Executive Director and a supermarket trolley?

    The trolley has a mind of its own.
    What has four legs and forty teeth?

    A crocodile.

    What has forty legs and four teeth?

    The Politburo. (Maybe these days the Shadow Cabinet, but I dunno, Corbyn's dentures look pretty good to me.)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I'm trying to work out if there's a single person, *anywhere*, May could credibly claim to have convinced that Chequers is a good idea.

    I wonder.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited October 2018

    Great to see JRM chances sliding away.

    Come, come Mr Eagles, that's a ludicrous statement. It implied Mogg had a chance.

    Why, that would have been the equivalent of an elderly Marxist supporter of terrorism and racism with no intellect and no experience of work being elected leader of the Labour par...ah.

    Yes, you're right. It is good to see!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    I think Raab is value there
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    A withdrawal agreement. In order for the EU to even *begin* to negotiate a trade deal with the UK, the EU demanded a withdrawal agreement that settled the following things

    1) The status of northern ireland and the border with the Republic
    2) The status of EU nationals living in the UK and vice versa, as well as the jurisdiction of the ECJ to protect their rights.
    3) The financial contribution for all EU agencies the UK has either committed to or intends to remain a member of.
    4) A temporary trading and customs relationship that doesn't give UK companies an unfair advantage during the negotiation of a full deal.

    Charitably, it could be argued that the government has sorted (3) and fudged (2).

    (1) is nowhere close to resolved and (4) is probably impossible to get through Parliament
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    kle4 said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    Not even I am mad enough to predict that Tory cabinet ministers might actually stand on principle. They will all back May. All they care about is positioning for the leadership.
    Positioning for the leadership does not, even at this stage, rule out resigning, as we have seen previously.
    As I said before, if Raab resigned over the backstop, he would be PM by Christmas. But politicians are hugely risk averse and the thought of being left out in the cold is too much for most of them. Principle rarely comes into it; DD was an exception.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    This is an interesting story, but it has worrying aspects:

    Same-sex mice have babies
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45801043

    The worrying part being the reporter felt the need to make this point:

    'Mammals, including us, can make babies only through sexual reproduction.'

    You would have thought even someone as thick as a Republican voter would have grasped that bit (among others)!
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    Quite right. Nothing. As I said on the previous thread, May is negotiating No Deal.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    TOPPING said:

    Hey @archer101au @Big_G_NorthWales @HYUFD and others (even Spitfire) great discussion on previous thread.

    We aim to entertain!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,781
    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    No idea, and yes.

    The only comfort we have is that every single politician involved won't get a paper-round job in the future should Brexit fail.

    May. Bet May. Vote May. Simples!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited October 2018

    kle4 said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    Not even I am mad enough to predict that Tory cabinet ministers might actually stand on principle. They will all back May. All they care about is positioning for the leadership.
    Positioning for the leadership does not, even at this stage, rule out resigning, as we have seen previously.
    As I said before, if Raab resigned over the backstop, he would be PM by Christmas. But politicians are hugely risk averse and the thought of being left out in the cold is too much for most of them. Principle rarely comes into it; DD was an exception.
    May is, as she has done throughout this process, continually misunderestimating her opponents.

    Right now she's working on the assumption the DUP aren't prepared bring down her government if she agrees to the backstop.

    She is almost certainly hilariously mistaken.
  • TOPPING said:

    Hey @archer101au @Big_G_NorthWales @HYUFD and others (even Spitfire) great discussion on previous thread.

    I suppose it was between a hard brexiteer, a softer brexiteer and a practical conservative

    Hope that sums it up
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,781

    kle4 said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    Not even I am mad enough to predict that Tory cabinet ministers might actually stand on principle. They will all back May. All they care about is positioning for the leadership.
    Positioning for the leadership does not, even at this stage, rule out resigning, as we have seen previously.
    As I said before, if Raab resigned over the backstop, he would be PM by Christmas. But politicians are hugely risk averse and the thought of being left out in the cold is too much for most of them. Principle rarely comes into it; DD was an exception.
    May is, as she has done throughout this process, continually misunderestimating her opponents.

    Right now she's working on the assumption the DUP aren't prepared bring down her government if she agrees to the backstop.

    She is almost certainly hilariously mistaken.
    No chance. The DUP won't exist if they get this wrong. Irish politics rule the roost with regards to Brexit. I have all sorts of fond thoughts as to Ireland generally. I don't have a good word to say about the Irish as regards to Brexit. North and South I think you have acted, and continue to act, way below the slightest standard.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    TOPPING said:

    Hey @archer101au @Big_G_NorthWales @HYUFD and others (even Spitfire) great discussion on previous thread.

    I suppose it was between a hard brexiteer, a softer brexiteer and a practical conservative

    Hope that sums it up
    I prefer the term 'headbanger' :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,179

    I'm trying to work out if there's a single person, *anywhere*, May could credibly claim to have convinced that Chequers is a good idea.

    I wonder.

    Michael Gove?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,179

    kle4 said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    Not even I am mad enough to predict that Tory cabinet ministers might actually stand on principle. They will all back May. All they care about is positioning for the leadership.
    Positioning for the leadership does not, even at this stage, rule out resigning, as we have seen previously.
    As I said before, if Raab resigned over the backstop, he would be PM by Christmas. But politicians are hugely risk averse and the thought of being left out in the cold is too much for most of them. Principle rarely comes into it; DD was an exception.
    May is, as she has done throughout this process, continually misunderestimating her opponents.

    Right now she's working on the assumption the DUP aren't prepared bring down her government if she agrees to the backstop.

    She is almost certainly hilariously mistaken.
    She might think they are prepared to bring down her government if she agrees to the backstop, but thinks it is the only Brexit option that is now viable regardless.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited October 2018
    kle4 said:

    I'm trying to work out if there's a single person, *anywhere*, May could credibly claim to have convinced that Chequers is a good idea.

    I wonder.

    Michael Gove?
    No, that doesn't help. If he'd been against it along with other lowlifes Barnier, Juncker, Selmayr, Boris, Davis, Corbyn, Cable, Foster, that would have conclusively proved Chequers was a brilliant idea.

    As it is, the fact he supports it shows even a failed two-bit wannabe dictator who is mostly roaring drunk can be right at times.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,781
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm trying to work out if there's a single person, *anywhere*, May could credibly claim to have convinced that Chequers is a good idea.

    I wonder.

    Michael Gove?
    No, that doesn't help. If he'd been against it along with other lowlifes Barnier, Juncker, Selmayr, Boris, Davis, Corbyn, Cable, Foster, that would have conclusively proved Chequers was a brilliant idea.

    As it is, the fact he supports it shows even a failed two-bit wannabe dictator who is mostly roaring drunk can be right at times.
    Anyone can be right at times.
  • ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm trying to work out if there's a single person, *anywhere*, May could credibly claim to have convinced that Chequers is a good idea.

    I wonder.

    Michael Gove?
    No, that doesn't help. If he'd been against it along with other lowlifes Barnier, Juncker, Selmayr, Boris, Davis, Corbyn, Cable, Foster, that would have conclusively proved Chequers was a brilliant idea.

    As it is, the fact he supports it shows even a failed two-bit wannabe dictator who is mostly roaring drunk can be right at times.
    Gove supports Chequers because he thinks all the other options ultimately mean no Brexit or the UK rejoining in a few years because of the awfulness of no deal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm trying to work out if there's a single person, *anywhere*, May could credibly claim to have convinced that Chequers is a good idea.

    I wonder.

    Michael Gove?
    No, that doesn't help. If he'd been against it along with other lowlifes Barnier, Juncker, Selmayr, Boris, Davis, Corbyn, Cable, Foster, that would have conclusively proved Chequers was a brilliant idea.

    As it is, the fact he supports it shows even a failed two-bit wannabe dictator who is mostly roaring drunk can be right at times.
    Anyone can be right at times.
    Proving Juncker right is a near-extraordinary feat.

    Proving Barnier right is scarcely less impressive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    I'm trying to work out if there's a single person, *anywhere*, May could credibly claim to have convinced that Chequers is a good idea.

    I wonder.

    Herself.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,781
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm trying to work out if there's a single person, *anywhere*, May could credibly claim to have convinced that Chequers is a good idea.

    I wonder.

    Michael Gove?
    No, that doesn't help. If he'd been against it along with other lowlifes Barnier, Juncker, Selmayr, Boris, Davis, Corbyn, Cable, Foster, that would have conclusively proved Chequers was a brilliant idea.

    As it is, the fact he supports it shows even a failed two-bit wannabe dictator who is mostly roaring drunk can be right at times.
    Anyone can be right at times.
    Proving Juncker right is a near-extraordinary feat.

    Proving Barnier right is scarcely less impressive.
    I think you miss the idea. There are no wise men. No-one is right all the time. There are no unwise men too, no-one is daft all the time.

    Juncker and Barnier? Average.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
  • TOPPING said:

    Hey @archer101au @Big_G_NorthWales @HYUFD and others (even Spitfire) great discussion on previous thread.

    I suppose it was between a hard brexiteer, a softer brexiteer and a practical conservative

    Hope that sums it up
    I prefer the term 'headbanger' :)
    You said it

    And for the avoidance of doubt I am and always will be a practical conservative
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    ydoethur said:

    All alone in this lonely thread :(

    Only been open for one minute but you've beaten TSE for first
    Shall I save him the effort and call for a judge-led inquiry?
    Sounds like a case for Kavanaugh, in his outraged mode.

  • Tom Newton Dunn 20 minutes ago

    A lot of conflicting reports around tonight, but I am still told by a senior Govt source that any deal with the EU is “still some way off”. The UK’s demand for a time limit on the customs union backstop is the major sticking point.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,615
    Maybe it's possible that the climate will change in this way: TM is stoically getting on with an almost impossible task and some sort of agreement on a WA is at least thinkable. She is being bullied on every possible side by groups, some of then startlingly nasty, who are all correct in their own eyes, but who could never command consent of a majority and are in complete disagreement with each other; in most cases the others don't have to articulate a rational and coherent plan which could survive a moment's proper scrutiny (Labour, Boris, DUP, People's Vote....). In the absence of a plausible candidate maybe 2019 is a bit early for her departure. Maybe we should wait and see.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Nigelb said:

    I'm trying to work out if there's a single person, *anywhere*, May could credibly claim to have convinced that Chequers is a good idea.

    I wonder.

    Herself.
    Yes but she also convinced herself she's strong and stable and I'm not sure there's a queue of others willing to back that one up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited October 2018
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm trying to work out if there's a single person, *anywhere*, May could credibly claim to have convinced that Chequers is a good idea.

    I wonder.

    Michael Gove?
    No, that doesn't help. If he'd been against it along with other lowlifes Barnier, Juncker, Selmayr, Boris, Davis, Corbyn, Cable, Foster, that would have conclusively proved Chequers was a brilliant idea.

    As it is, the fact he supports it shows even a failed two-bit wannabe dictator who is mostly roaring drunk can be right at times.
    Anyone can be right at times.
    Proving Juncker right is a near-extraordinary feat.

    Proving Barnier right is scarcely less impressive.
    I think you miss the idea. There are no wise men. No-one is right all the time. There are no unwise men too, no-one is daft all the time.

    Juncker and Barnier? Average.
    You're feeling generous.

    Juncker really is a scummy two-bit nobody who would be out of his depth running a sub post office. That requires a level of ability, integrity and sobriety he altogether lacks.

    As for Barnier, he is a former French Minister of Agriculture. Nuff said.

    They've gravely damaged the EU, possibly beyond repair, but they have neither the courage or honesty to admit it. And for that they will not be soon forgiven whatever their fawning acolytes at the Commission and the European Parliament say at present.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Tom Newton Dunn 20 minutes ago

    A lot of conflicting reports around tonight, but I am still told by a senior Govt source that any deal with the EU is “still some way off”. The UK’s demand for a time limit on the customs union backstop is the major sticking point.

    So the EU have been asked to compromise on the time limit, and they’re struggling.

    Not negotiating in good faith, springs to mind.
  • algarkirk said:

    Maybe it's possible that the climate will change in this way: TM is stoically getting on with an almost impossible task and some sort of agreement on a WA is at least thinkable. She is being bullied on every possible side by groups, some of then startlingly nasty, who are all correct in their own eyes, but who could never command consent of a majority and are in complete disagreement with each other; in most cases the others don't have to articulate a rational and coherent plan which could survive a moment's proper scrutiny (Labour, Boris, DUP, People's Vote....). In the absence of a plausible candidate maybe 2019 is a bit early for her departure. Maybe we should wait and see.

    TM can run down the clock putting the EU in panic mode and then in the new year, when everything is kicking off, move to accepting a Norway deal

    Just another theory
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,179
    algarkirk said:

    Maybe it's possible that the climate will change in this way: TM is stoically getting on with an almost impossible task and some sort of agreement on a WA is at least thinkable. She is being bullied on every possible side by groups, some of then startlingly nasty, who are all correct in their own eyes, but who could never command consent of a majority and are in complete disagreement with each other; in most cases the others don't have to articulate a rational and coherent plan which could survive a moment's proper scrutiny (Labour, Boris, DUP, People's Vote....). In the absence of a plausible candidate maybe 2019 is a bit early for her departure. Maybe we should wait and see.

    The problem I have with that is I can just about see, given time, that the public perception of May can go in that way and this there is not a groundswell view that she should go soon...but I cannot see how she lasts long enough given at some point all the groups against her will be able to come together to defeat whatever she has come up with in the Commons, since she simply does not have the MP support necessary. The kicking of cans is coming to an end, and whether a deal is done or not I just cannot see how she lasts past next year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,179

    algarkirk said:

    Maybe it's possible that the climate will change in this way: TM is stoically getting on with an almost impossible task and some sort of agreement on a WA is at least thinkable. She is being bullied on every possible side by groups, some of then startlingly nasty, who are all correct in their own eyes, but who could never command consent of a majority and are in complete disagreement with each other; in most cases the others don't have to articulate a rational and coherent plan which could survive a moment's proper scrutiny (Labour, Boris, DUP, People's Vote....). In the absence of a plausible candidate maybe 2019 is a bit early for her departure. Maybe we should wait and see.

    TM can run down the clock putting the EU in panic mode and then in the new year, when everything is kicking off, move to accepting a Norway deal

    Just another theory
    The EU won't panic, they seem very confident we will give in, not without reason.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    I think Raab is value there

    the 2 people I was talking to about this yesterday quite liked him.

    But then 1 really liked BJ.

    The other though got BJ was ok - “he has bad judgement and no discipline but if you tell him not to do something he won’t do it. The problem is that he’s very good it find ways to get into trouble that no one has thought to tell him not to. It’s a bit like wrangling a toddler”

    That’s one hell of an endorsement!
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    TOPPING said:

    Hey @archer101au @Big_G_NorthWales @HYUFD and others (even Spitfire) great discussion on previous thread.

    I suppose it was between a hard brexiteer, a softer brexiteer and a practical conservative

    Hope that sums it up
    I prefer the term 'headbanger' :)
    You said it

    And for the avoidance of doubt I am and always will be a practical conservative
    I was talking about you ;)
  • Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think Raab is value there

    the 2 people I was talking to about this yesterday quite liked him.

    But then 1 really liked BJ.

    The other though got BJ was ok - “he has bad judgement and no discipline but if you tell him not to do something he won’t do it. The problem is that he’s very good it find ways to get into trouble that no one has thought to tell him not to. It’s a bit like wrangling a toddler”

    That’s one hell of an endorsement!
    Well who doesn't like a BJ.

    Fnarr Fnarr.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    I'm going to start really worrying about the Brexit can kicking when Philip Hammond announces during the Budget about the three new months being slotted in between January and March for "tax reasons".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

  • kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Maybe it's possible that the climate will change in this way: TM is stoically getting on with an almost impossible task and some sort of agreement on a WA is at least thinkable. She is being bullied on every possible side by groups, some of then startlingly nasty, who are all correct in their own eyes, but who could never command consent of a majority and are in complete disagreement with each other; in most cases the others don't have to articulate a rational and coherent plan which could survive a moment's proper scrutiny (Labour, Boris, DUP, People's Vote....). In the absence of a plausible candidate maybe 2019 is a bit early for her departure. Maybe we should wait and see.

    The problem I have with that is I can just about see, given time, that the public perception of May can go in that way and this there is not a groundswell view that she should go soon...but I cannot see how she lasts long enough given at some point all the groups against her will be able to come together to defeat whatever she has come up with in the Commons, since she simply does not have the MP support necessary. The kicking of cans is coming to an end, and whether a deal is done or not I just cannot see how she lasts past next year.
    I have suggested previously that In May/ June 2019, following Brexit, she will offer to continue as caretaker pm while the party goes through a proper leadership election, including to the members and concludes for the return of Parliament in September
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    Not even I am mad enough to predict that Tory cabinet ministers might actually stand on principle. They will all back May. All they care about is positioning for the leadership.
    Positioning for the leadership does not, even at this stage, rule out resigning, as we have seen previously.
    As I said before, if Raab resigned over the backstop, he would be PM by Christmas. But politicians are hugely risk averse and the thought of being left out in the cold is too much for most of them. Principle rarely comes into it; DD was an exception.
    May is, as she has done throughout this process, continually misunderestimating her opponents.

    Right now she's working on the assumption the DUP aren't prepared bring down her government if she agrees to the backstop.

    She is almost certainly hilariously mistaken.
    No chance. The DUP won't exist if they get this wrong. Irish politics rule the roost with regards to Brexit. I have all sorts of fond thoughts as to Ireland generally. I don't have a good word to say about the Irish as regards to Brexit. North and South I think you have acted, and continue to act, way below the slightest standard.
    I think the DUP would be very happy with the UK in a Customs Unions with the EU. What they don't want is Northern Ireland cut off from Great Britain.
  • kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Maybe it's possible that the climate will change in this way: TM is stoically getting on with an almost impossible task and some sort of agreement on a WA is at least thinkable. She is being bullied on every possible side by groups, some of then startlingly nasty, who are all correct in their own eyes, but who could never command consent of a majority and are in complete disagreement with each other; in most cases the others don't have to articulate a rational and coherent plan which could survive a moment's proper scrutiny (Labour, Boris, DUP, People's Vote....). In the absence of a plausible candidate maybe 2019 is a bit early for her departure. Maybe we should wait and see.

    TM can run down the clock putting the EU in panic mode and then in the new year, when everything is kicking off, move to accepting a Norway deal

    Just another theory
    The EU won't panic, they seem very confident we will give in, not without reason.
    They wont but EU Countries with ports, especially Ireland, will be in a blind panic if we are closing in on March 19 with no deal
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.
  • TOPPING said:

    Hey @archer101au @Big_G_NorthWales @HYUFD and others (even Spitfire) great discussion on previous thread.

    I suppose it was between a hard brexiteer, a softer brexiteer and a practical conservative

    Hope that sums it up
    I prefer the term 'headbanger' :)
    You said it

    And for the avoidance of doubt I am and always will be a practical conservative
    I was talking about you ;)
    I can confidently say that on here and elsewhere you would be on your own on that comment
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

  • Revealed: Princess Eugenie and her fiancé Jack Brooksbank are both related to... the same slave-trading conman

    Slave-trafficker Edward Lascelles made a fortune buying and selling Africans

    He locked them up for months on so-called factory ships on which many died

    Eugenie and Jack Brooksbank are distantly related to the 18th-century character

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-6258387/Princess-Eugenie-fianc-Jack-Brooksbank-related-slave-trading-conman.html

    Abolition the monarchy now.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    The outrage machine has long moved on, corrections are too little too late.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    Can we do jazz hands to celebrate?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

    But the whole point of the FTA will be to stay in alignment in some areas. That usually takes time with other countries (such as Canada), because the alignment actually has to occur.
  • Monday's cabinet will be very interesting
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    It's back on again: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2018/10/11/student-union-seeks-ban-students-dressing-tories-fancy-dress/

    :D
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

    But the whole point of the FTA will be to stay in alignment in some areas. That usually takes time with other countries (such as Canada), because the alignment actually has to occur.
    "some" being a small word with a Tardis like interior. As soon as "some" non alignment is permitted, a world of complexity is born.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

    But the whole point of the FTA will be to stay in alignment in some areas. That usually takes time with other countries (such as Canada), because the alignment actually has to occur.
    "some" being a small word with a Tardis like interior. As soon as "some" non alignment is permitted, a world of complexity is born.
    You have to wonder how on earth Canada managed to negotiate a deal when they only aligned in some areas.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    It's back on again: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2018/10/11/student-union-seeks-ban-students-dressing-tories-fancy-dress/

    :D
    Actually, those do by and large seem quite sensible rules.
  • We all know the true dividing line in the culture wars.

    The forces of light and goodness who despise pineapple on pizza and the degenerates who like it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

    But the whole point of the FTA will be to stay in alignment in some areas. That usually takes time with other countries (such as Canada), because the alignment actually has to occur.
    "some" being a small word with a Tardis like interior. As soon as "some" non alignment is permitted, a world of complexity is born.
    You have to wonder how on earth Canada managed to negotiate a deal when they only aligned in some areas.
    It took 7 years, and is much less than what we have at the moment.

    Do you think a team that has actually been in reverse for 10 months can get it sorted in 18 months post Brexit?
  • Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    Can we do jazz hands to celebrate?
    I think it's jizz hands that needed to be worried about when it came to the various fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists excited by that story.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    We all know the true dividing line in the culture wars.

    The forces of light and goodness who despise pineapple on pizza and the degenerates who like it.

    It will all be currywurst in the future. For you, ze pineapple war is over.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    edited October 2018

    We all know the true dividing line in the culture wars.

    The forces of light and goodness who despise pineapple on pizza and the degenerates who like it.

    Surely it's the degenerates who throw away vast sums on evil Apple products, and the forces of light and goodness who spend wisely on other, superior products? ;)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    We all know the true dividing line in the culture wars.

    The forces of light and goodness who despise pineapple on pizza and the degenerates who like it.

    Pizza is an abomination onto Nuggan
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

    It is only complicated if either side rules out the option of looking again at the arrangement should they feel some time in the future that divergence has taken place to an unacceptable extent. In the meantime there should be nothing to stop the EU and UK to continue as we are on day one. Instead the idiotic requirement is that there should be a binding agreement to continue as now for evermore, or nothing. As such, the EU is putting a far higher bar in place for an agreement on trading relations with the UK than it seeks for arrangements with other states and blocs. Its motive for doing so seems to have no grounding in economic necessity, and is instead driven by political motives to try and punish the UK for its temerity.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

    But the whole point of the FTA will be to stay in alignment in some areas. That usually takes time with other countries (such as Canada), because the alignment actually has to occur.
    "some" being a small word with a Tardis like interior. As soon as "some" non alignment is permitted, a world of complexity is born.
    You have to wonder how on earth Canada managed to negotiate a deal when they only aligned in some areas.
    It took 7 years, and is much less than what we have at the moment.

    Do you think a team that has actually been in reverse for 10 months can get it sorted in 18 months post Brexit?
    Canada was starting from a point where it and the EU had completely different standards, and the time taken was in working out how to bring them closer together. By contrast, standards between the EU and UK are already completely aligned. There should for the moment to be next to nothing to sort out.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256


    Well who doesn't like a BJ.

    Fnarr Fnarr.

    I don't.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    It's back on again: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2018/10/11/student-union-seeks-ban-students-dressing-tories-fancy-dress/

    :D
    Methinks you have bigger problems to worry about Rob
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Charles said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
    Given the lack of blood, do not look too hard. :D:D:D
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,781
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    It's back on again: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2018/10/11/student-union-seeks-ban-students-dressing-tories-fancy-dress/

    :D
    Actually, those do by and large seem quite sensible rules.
    If you say so.

    (Complete fucking idiots to a man (or woman) is nearer the mark in my view.)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

    It is only complicated if either side rules out the option of looking again at the arrangement should they feel some time in the future that divergence has taken place to an unacceptable extent. In the meantime there should be nothing to stop the EU and UK to continue as we are on day one. Instead the idiotic requirement is that there should be a binding agreement to continue as now for evermore, or nothing. As such, the EU is putting a far higher bar in place for an agreement on trading relations with the UK than it seeks for arrangements with other states and blocs. Its motive for doing so seems to have no grounding in economic necessity, and is instead driven by political motives to try and punish the UK for its temerity.
    No, it is a simple choice. Full and binding alignment with the single Market, or a Canada style FTA negotiated by the same muppets currently languidly negotiating. Bear in mind that the UK and EU27 each have different pluses in mind. Canada or Norway has always been the choice, but a choice that May has dithered over for 2 years.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited October 2018

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    It's back on again: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2018/10/11/student-union-seeks-ban-students-dressing-tories-fancy-dress/

    :D
    Methinks you have bigger problems to worry about Rob
    Do I? That sounds ominous.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Is Charles dropping by this evening? I have been keeping an eye on the news for the promised bloodbath / resignations / constitutional crisis*

    * Delete as appropriate

    It depended on what May proposed in Cabinet - I’ve not seen any leaks (haven’t had time to look)

    The trigger for the bloodbath was a permanent CU.
    Given the lack of blood, do not look too hard. :D:D:D
    Although LauraK now tweeting that Downing Street on resignation watch..,
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

    But the whole point of the FTA will be to stay in alignment in some areas. That usually takes time with other countries (such as Canada), because the alignment actually has to occur.
    "some" being a small word with a Tardis like interior. As soon as "some" non alignment is permitted, a world of complexity is born.
    You have to wonder how on earth Canada managed to negotiate a deal when they only aligned in some areas.
    It took 7 years, and is much less than what we have at the moment.

    Do you think a team that has actually been in reverse for 10 months can get it sorted in 18 months post Brexit?
    I wonder why? Perhaps it is because they weren't in alignment when they started.
  • In the real world I am beginning to suspect that events are about to overtake domestic politics. I Was visiting a large manufacturer in the midlands today. They are a core part of UK industry with £20m turnover. Like much of industry they are owned by offshore private equity. They are struggling to be allowed to invest despite a massive order book and premium products. Staff retention is low and employees age is high. How will Brexit help solve the real world issues this plant faces and the real risk of it being closed.

    Much of our wealth in this country is in the hands of people who don’t care about Brexit. We want control of our country but we have mortgaged much of it to pawnbrokers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

    It is only complicated if either side rules out the option of looking again at the arrangement should they feel some time in the future that divergence has taken place to an unacceptable extent. In the meantime there should be nothing to stop the EU and UK to continue as we are on day one. Instead the idiotic requirement is that there should be a binding agreement to continue as now for evermore, or nothing. As such, the EU is putting a far higher bar in place for an agreement on trading relations with the UK than it seeks for arrangements with other states and blocs. Its motive for doing so seems to have no grounding in economic necessity, and is instead driven by political motives to try and punish the UK for its temerity.
    No, it is a simple choice. Full and binding alignment with the single Market, or a Canada style FTA negotiated by the same muppets currently languidly negotiating. Bear in mind that the UK and EU27 each have different pluses in mind. Canada or Norway has always been the choice, but a choice that May has dithered over for 2 years.
    Don't forget sequencing prevents any negotiation on the future trading relationship.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    So I see that story about a student union banning clapping turned out to be a lie then. Shock.

    https://twitter.com/hannahchrstina/status/1050330286997819392?s=19

    Culture war is cancelled.

    It's back on again: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2018/10/11/student-union-seeks-ban-students-dressing-tories-fancy-dress/

    :D
    Actually, those do by and large seem quite sensible rules.
    If you say so.

    (Complete fucking idiots to a man (or woman) is nearer the mark in my view.)
    How genderist of you!! Not everyone applies the outdated, discriminatory, medieval, hideous words “man” or “woman” to themselves.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Might seem a daft question but can anyone tell me:

    If the Govt hasn't itself even decided what type of Brexit we want, what is currerntly being negotiated with the EU?

    eg IF the Govt suddenly went for a Norway model, would they just say "Forget all discussions up to now, how about this?"

    The future relationship hasn't been discussed because of the EU's sequencing. The focus has entirely been on the withdrawal agreement and the backstop.
    And Ivan Rogers has been proven right in his warnings from 2 years ago. These discussions will take a long time. 2 years later even the WA is not agreed in detail, and trade talks are in embryo.

    Does anyone think that they will be finished by the end of the WA period in a further 2 years?

    Those bored of Brexit are going to be more bored than Fox jr at the St Petersburg Artillery Museum...can you believe that he couldn't summon any enthusiasm for a discussion of the merits of the SU100?

    The future trading agreement should be straightforward since we are in perfect alignment with EU rules, it's a shame politics has to get in the way ;)
    It is only straightforward if we are bound to remain in alignment!

    If we can deviate from those rules (surely the point of Brexit?) then it ceases to be straightforward at all.

    In the immortal words of Sartre: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team"

    But the whole point of the FTA will be to stay in alignment in some areas. That usually takes time with other countries (such as Canada), because the alignment actually has to occur.
    "some" being a small word with a Tardis like interior. As soon as "some" non alignment is permitted, a world of complexity is born.
    You have to wonder how on earth Canada managed to negotiate a deal when they only aligned in some areas.
    It took 7 years, and is much less than what we have at the moment.

    Do you think a team that has actually been in reverse for 10 months can get it sorted in 18 months post Brexit?
    I wonder why? Perhaps it is because they weren't in alignment when they started.
    I am sure that a deal could be quick if we agreed to follow all present and future SM rules, and that the European Courts could adjudicate disputes.

    It is when the question of increasing divergence comes in that it becomes complex.

    If we are planning to just shadow every EU rule and regulation for evermore, what is the point of Brexit?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,179
    Not sure what there is to ponder - for one there's clearly no guarantee it will be the final compromise, for two it isn't a compromise at all, so it's time to see if they are willing to suck it up and give up, or if they will accept the negative consequences of no deal.
This discussion has been closed.