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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-Kavanaugh polling suggest the Democrats are moving

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    From their perspective why shouldn't they make Corbyn PM if May is prepared to sell them down the river and put them in a purdah where they have to follow EU rules but have no say in what those rules are?
    They need to think about the greater good, take one for the team, they aren't very loyal to the Crown.
    Surely, it's the DUP who are preventing the hard Brexit that you so strongly object to? Without Northern Ireland, the government would happily adopt a Canada-type deal.
    The DUP are ensuring a no deal/Hard Brexit.
    Remember these are the same troglodytes who whipped up riots in response to the Anglo-Irish agreement, and actively campaigned for a NO vote against the Good Friday Agreement, when even the Loyalist Paramilitaries supported it.

    Their intransigence in this instance should surprise absolutely nobody.
    Had I been resident there, I doubt whether I would have voted for the GFA.
    Really, why not?
    I was unhappy with the treatment of the RUC and early prisoner releases (and would have been even more unhappy had I known of Tony Blair's comfort letters).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FTPT
    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Democrats are boned In North Dakota for the Senate. Huge (for the size of the state) number of Native Americans have just been disenfranchised due to a voter id law.

    That has to be one of the most insulting things done for a long while. And, unless I am much mistaken, due to a recent ruling by the SCOTUS.
    You are mistaken. It was a decision by the appeals court which the Suireme Court refused to revisit

    Asking voters to provide a residential address is not unreasonable. If native Americans don’t have “traditional residential addresses” they can come up with a way to create that.
    Not if you traditionally have a large portion of your population of a specific demographic who do not have a "traditional" (who's tradition?) residential address.

    It's a naked, tagrgetted, attempt at disenfranchisement.
    Proof of address is not an unreasonable ask. Have the activists come up with an alternative proposal?
    The measure was brought in to fight non existent in-person voter fraud.

    It behoves the law writers to show that there is a purpose to the law given that they knew it was going to disenfranchise thousands of their citizens.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    The aim is presumably to get rid of Theresa May not to install Jeremy Corbyn. Presumably they reckon that they can achieve the first without the second occurring. I'm not sure they've worked the mechanics through.

    The DUP have always been brilliant strategists but the wheels seem to have come off their wagon since they threw in their lot with Brexit based on sentiment rather than acting on cold calculation (which would have led them to back Remain).
    No the DUP are great tacticians but crap strategists they have no long term plan.

    My guess would be their public statement red lines arent quite so red and that they will hold out for some more pork. Then the fudge machine will kick in and a deal will get done. Pork of course may not mean more cash but a bit of red meat to throw to the faithful. Mr Nabavis suggestion last week on no more retrospective prosecution of secutity forces is the kind of thing theyd like.
    I thought that the "Leave" brigade on here would find the DUP admirable! They have one objective - maintenance of the Union with the UK and they are prepared to stick with the UK whether we Brexit, WTO or Remain. They might even be helping us toward the Hard Brexit so beloved of the Ultra-Brexiteers.

    They are standing by the UK 100%. You can cannot buy loyalty like that :smile:
    I think youre simply suffering the PB tendancy of black and white Brexit. Most peoples opinions are shades of grey.

    basing everyting on the extremes of he other sideis a bit Ulstery :-)
    There is a reason for that :D:D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Looks like the DUP are about to comprehensively outplay the ERG to me. Mogg and co won't be voting down the budget, more to the point - they won't threaten to.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited October 2018
    John_M said:

    I see today is PB's occasional foray into Remainer self-help groupery. 'Leavers, they're so stupid and racist and racist and stupid. I shall stamp my foot over and over and over'. Bless.

    "Truth hurts. Not as much as sitting on a bicycle with the saddle missing, but it hurts just the same" - Lt Frank Drebin
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    "I can't believe it's not a Customs Union" Brexit.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sean_F said:

    O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

    Who needs experts? ;)
    Experts in their field of expertise are usually interesting (albeit not always right)

    Experts claiming their specialism gives them unique insights into broader questions have limited value

    For example I might (theoretically) like Kayne West’s music but not his political insight
  • Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the DUP are about to comprehensively outplay the ERG to me. Mogg and co won't be voting down the budget, more to the point - they won't threaten to.

    The Sunday Times said some of the ERG were planning to vote down the budget if they don't get their perfect Brexit.

    Bunch of wankerous traitors.
  • Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

    Who needs experts? ;)
    Experts in their field of expertise are usually interesting (albeit not always right)

    Experts claiming their specialism gives them unique insights into broader questions have limited value

    For example I might (theoretically) like Kayne West’s music but not his political insight
    I like one of Kanye West's tracks, Goldigga ft Jamie Foxx.

    I hate myself so much for that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    The aim is presumably to get rid of Theresa May not to install Jeremy Corbyn. Presumably they reckon that they can achieve the first without the second occurring. I'm not sure they've worked the mechanics through.

    The DUP have always been brilliant strategists but the wheels seem to have come off their wagon since they threw in their lot with Brexit based on sentiment rather than acting on cold calculation (which would have led them to back Remain).
    For the same of argument assume Arlene Foster concluded 12 months ago that the best outcome for the DUP was Remain. What would she have done differently? If she or anyone else in the DUP had openly advocated that it could have left them in a worse strategic position. Their best bet is to be absolutely resolute about no divergence or border between NI/GB and force the other parties to draw their own conclusions.
    For the sake of argument if Arlene Foster concluded the best outcome was Remain she could do a lot differently. No need to advocate that, just create the scenario where that is possible which it isn't currently. Easiest way to do that would have been to advocate for a second referendum. This could have been phrased such as 'the Good Friday Agreement was ratified by a referendum, our new settlement should be too'. With that genie out of the bottle there'd be a path to Remain.
    No, that would open the door to a Northern Ireland only referendum on special status, which is the last thing she wants.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited October 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    From their perspective why shouldn't they make Corbyn PM if May is prepared to sell them down the river and put them in a purdah where they have to follow EU rules but have no say in what those rules are?
    They need to think about the greater good, take one for the team, they aren't very loyal to the Crown.
    Surely, it's the DUP who are preventing the hard Brexit that you so strongly object to? Without Northern Ireland, the government would happily adopt a Canada-type deal.
    The DUP are ensuring a no deal/Hard Brexit.
    Remember these are the same troglodytes who whipped up riots in response to the Anglo-Irish agreement, and actively campaigned for a NO vote against the Good Friday Agreement, when even the Loyalist Paramilitaries supported it.

    Their intransigence in this instance should surprise absolutely nobody.
    Had I been resident there, I doubt whether I would have voted for the GFA.
    Really, why not?
    I was unhappy with the treatment of the RUC and early prisoner releases (and would have been even more unhappy had I known of Tony Blair's comfort letters).
    The GFA was only real argument I ever had with my dad. I was for he was against. He;d been a policeman for 30+years and was an arms instructor so he knew a lot of people as he trained them. Usually when an RUC guy was murdered the first question my mother would ask was if he knew them, quite a lot of them he did. It was the early releases that most offended him followed by arms decommissioning.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Roger said:

    OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

    What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

    They must be counting the days.....

    You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers
    It was a nasty comment unworthy of your measured response @Big_G_NorthWales
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    I see today is PB's occasional foray into Remainer self-help groupery. 'Leavers, they're so stupid and racist and racist and stupid. I shall stamp my foot over and over and over'. Bless.

    "Truth hurts. Not as much as sitting on a bicycle with the saddle missing, but it hurts just the same" - Lt Frank Drebin
    'And haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate.' - T. Swift, noted philosopher.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

    Not going to change.

    Yes, highly unlikely now. Especially according to Betfairs rules which would basically give the blue side 53 votes
    If the Democrats did achieve a 13% lead over the Republicans in the House, they likely would gain the Senate as well. But CNN has regularly been giving 10%+ leads for the Democrats, in contrast to other generic polls showing more modest leads.
    Currently the Senate is 51 GOP - 47 Dem - 2 Ind.

    Betfair's rules require 51 Dems to pay out on Dem majority. This not only involves the hold of North Dakota, Cruz losing his seat and Tennessee going blue but also the gain of the Mississippi special seat.

    Here is how it voted in 2014.

    Mississippi's US senate election, 2014[75]
    Party Candidate Votes %
    Republican Thad Cochran (incumbent) 378,481 59.90
    Democratic Travis Childers 239,439 37.89
    Reform Shawn O'Hara 13,938 2.21

    Even a 13% lead may not be enough to gain that.

    It's not impossible, but the Dem 51st senate seat is a massive and unlikely task.
    If the Dems manage to hold North Dakota and they Gain Nevada and Arizona I think that gets them to 51.

    If they lose ND they need to pick up either Tennessee or Texas to compensate.
    The Republicans are almost certain to hold Tennessee and Texas according to the New York Times telephone polling.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited October 2018
    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

    What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

    They must be counting the days.....

    You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers
    It was a nasty comment unworthy of your measured response @Big_G_NorthWales
    I think it's common knowledge that Roger is just a parody account. No real person could carry off that combination of smugness, sanctimony and lack of self-awareness.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited October 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the DUP are about to comprehensively outplay the ERG to me. Mogg and co won't be voting down the budget, more to the point - they won't threaten to.

    The Sunday Times said some of the ERG were planning to vote down the budget if they don't get their perfect Brexit.

    Bunch of wankerous traitors.
    They won't.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

    What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

    They must be counting the days.....

    You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers
    It was a nasty comment unworthy of your measured response @Big_G_NorthWales
    I think it's common knowledge that Roger is just a parody account. No real person could carry off that combination of smugness, sanctimony and lack of self-awareness.
    I'm working on it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    From their perspective why shouldn't they make Corbyn PM if May is prepared to sell them down the river and put them in a purdah where they have to follow EU rules but have no say in what those rules are?
    They need to think about the greater good, take one for the team, they aren't very loyal to the Crown.
    Surely, it's the DUP who are preventing the hard Brexit that you so strongly object to? Without Northern Ireland, the government would happily adopt a Canada-type deal.
    The DUP are ensuring a no deal/Hard Brexit.
    Remember these are the same troglodytes who whipped up riots in response to the Anglo-Irish agreement, and actively campaigned for a NO vote against the Good Friday Agreement, when even the Loyalist Paramilitaries supported it.

    Their intransigence in this instance should surprise absolutely nobody.
    Had I been resident there, I doubt whether I would have voted for the GFA.
    Really, why not?
    I was unhappy with the treatment of the RUC and early prisoner releases (and would have been even more unhappy had I known of Tony Blair's comfort letters).
    The GFA was only real argument I ever had with my dad. I was for he was against. He;d been a policeman for 30+years and was an arms instructor so he knew a lot of people as he trained them. Usually when an RUC guy was murdered the first question my mother would ask was if he knew them, quite a lot of them he did. It was the early releases that most offended him followed by arms decommissioning.
    Something had to happen and if you look at where we are now I think it was and is worthwhile. I of course understand that some people object vehemently but I believe it was the right thing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

    What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

    They must be counting the days.....

    You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers
    It was a nasty comment unworthy of your measured response @Big_G_NorthWales
    I think it's common knowledge that Roger is just a parody account. No real person could carry off that combination of smugness, sanctimony and lack of self-awareness.
    I'm working on it.
    You'll have to significantly degrade your betting tips.......
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    From their perspective why shouldn't they make Corbyn PM if May is prepared to sell them down the river and put them in a purdah where they have to follow EU rules but have no say in what those rules are?
    They need to think about the greater good, take one for the team, they aren't very loyal to the Crown.
    Surely, it's the DUP who are preventing the hard Brexit that you so strongly object to? Without Northern Ireland, the government would happily adopt a Canada-type deal.
    The DUP are ensuring a no deal/Hard Brexit.
    Remember these are the same troglodytes who whipped up riots in response to the Anglo-Irish agreement, and actively campaigned for a NO vote against the Good Friday Agreement, when even the Loyalist Paramilitaries supported it.

    Their intransigence in this instance should surprise absolutely nobody.
    Had I been resident there, I doubt whether I would have voted for the GFA.
    Really, why not?
    I was unhappy with the treatment of the RUC and early prisoner releases (and would have been even more unhappy had I known of Tony Blair's comfort letters).
    The GFA was only real argument I ever had with my dad. I was for he was against. He;d been a policeman for 30+years and was an arms instructor so he knew a lot of people as he trained them. Usually when an RUC guy was murdered the first question my mother would ask was if he knew them, quite a lot of them he did. It was the early releases that most offended him followed by arms decommissioning.
    Something had to happen and if you look at where we are now I think it was and is worthwhile. I of course understand that some people object vehemently but I believe it was the right thing.
    No the GFA was the right thing. The subsequent shafting of Trimble and Hume to get SFDUP on board less so. Those yelling about extremists and bigots might just like to reflect how they got there.
  • This is extraordinary:

    14.18: Patisserie Valerie has just published another trading update, after revealing this morning potentially fraudulent accounting irregularities.

    The bakery chain says it has only today become aware of a winding up petition that was filed with the High Court of Justice on 14 September.

    The petition relates to a £1.14m payment due to HM Revenue & Customs and a hearing date is listed for 31 October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/10/investors-cautious-ahead-of-uk-growth-figures-business-live
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    This is extraordinary:

    14.18: Patisserie Valerie has just published another trading update, after revealing this morning potentially fraudulent accounting irregularities.

    The bakery chain says it has only today become aware of a winding up petition that was filed with the High Court of Justice on 14 September.

    The petition relates to a £1.14m payment due to HM Revenue & Customs and a hearing date is listed for 31 October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/10/investors-cautious-ahead-of-uk-growth-figures-business-live

    Many of their cakes are very disappointing, the Madame Valerie however is really good.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    This is doing the rounds on FB. I do not know if it is on many men's FB feeds, but I have seen lots of women sharing it.

    It might explain that gender gap. Scroll down until you get to the tweets then start reading (Kavanaugh & Trump turn up near the end of the tweets)

    https://www.boredpanda.com/nut-kicking-analogy-brett-kavanaugh-case/

    That's very powerful.
    Imagine that there was some proof for the claims. Imagine that we still believed in innocence until proven guilty. Imagine that hue and cry and the Lynch mob remained in the past where they belong.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    This is extraordinary:

    14.18: Patisserie Valerie has just published another trading update, after revealing this morning potentially fraudulent accounting irregularities.

    The bakery chain says it has only today become aware of a winding up petition that was filed with the High Court of Justice on 14 September.

    The petition relates to a £1.14m payment due to HM Revenue & Customs and a hearing date is listed for 31 October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/10/investors-cautious-ahead-of-uk-growth-figures-business-live

    It's quite a day for cake shops, one way and another.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Italy's leaders continue to remain very popular.

    Italy, EMG poll:
    Approval ratings (PM+party leaders)
    Salvini (LEGA-ENF): 50% (-2)
    Conte (*-*): 47%
    Di Maio (M5S-EFDD): 46%

    Salvini at 50%.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Democrats are boned In North Dakota for the Senate. Huge (for the size of the state) number of Native Americans have just been disenfranchised due to a voter id law.

    That has to be one of the most insulting things done for a long while. And, unless I am much mistaken, due to a recent ruling by the SCOTUS.
    You are mistaken. It was a decision by the appeals court which the Suireme Court refused to revisit

    Asking voters to provide a residential address is not unreasonable. If native Americans don’t have “traditional residential addresses” they can come up with a way to create that.
    Not if you traditionally have a large portion of your population of a specific demographic who do not have a "traditional" (who's tradition?) residential address.

    It's a naked, tagrgetted, attempt at disenfranchisement.
    Proof of address is not an unreasonable ask. Have the activists come up with an alternative proposal?
    The measure was brought in to fight non existent in-person voter fraud.

    It behoves the law writers to show that there is a purpose to the law given that they knew it was going to disenfranchise thousands of their citizens.
    That’s why you have a debate in the legislature. Presumably they were convinced
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    This is extraordinary:

    14.18: Patisserie Valerie has just published another trading update, after revealing this morning potentially fraudulent accounting irregularities.

    The bakery chain says it has only today become aware of a winding up petition that was filed with the High Court of Justice on 14 September.

    The petition relates to a £1.14m payment due to HM Revenue & Customs and a hearing date is listed for 31 October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/10/investors-cautious-ahead-of-uk-growth-figures-business-live

    Their cake is baked.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Alistair said:

    This is extraordinary:

    14.18: Patisserie Valerie has just published another trading update, after revealing this morning potentially fraudulent accounting irregularities.

    The bakery chain says it has only today become aware of a winding up petition that was filed with the High Court of Justice on 14 September.

    The petition relates to a £1.14m payment due to HM Revenue & Customs and a hearing date is listed for 31 October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/10/investors-cautious-ahead-of-uk-growth-figures-business-live

    Many of their cakes are very disappointing, the Madame Valerie however is really good.
    Almond croissants at their (at that time only shop on) Old Compton Street were a treat in my callow youth.

    I have always been mildly surprised at their growth. The fayre at their Kings Cross branch, for example, is gopping.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

    Who needs experts? ;)
    Experts in their field of expertise are usually interesting (albeit not always right)

    Experts claiming their specialism gives them unique insights into broader questions have limited value

    For example I might (theoretically) like Kayne West’s music but not his political insight
    I like one of Kanye West's tracks, Goldigga ft Jamie Foxx.

    I hate myself so much for that.
    Monday is over-sharing night.

    (Are you at the Dorchester party tonight?)
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

    What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

    They must be counting the days.....

    You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers
    It was a nasty comment unworthy of your measured response @Big_G_NorthWales
    I think it's common knowledge that Roger is just a parody account. No real person could carry off that combination of smugness, sanctimony and lack of self-awareness.
    All PB accounts are parodies.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

    What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

    They must be counting the days.....

    You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers
    It was a nasty comment unworthy of your measured response @Big_G_NorthWales
    I think it's common knowledge that Roger is just a parody account. No real person could carry off that combination of smugness, sanctimony and lack of self-awareness.
    I’ve met him...it’s all real...

    (Although I liked him)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

    What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

    They must be counting the days.....

    You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers
    And of course fat Frenchies are unknown - Roger says so.
    The stats are skewed. Plenty of fat French men. But their women are neurotic, afraid to consume a calorie in case their husbands don't come back to them from their younger, thinner mistresses....

    Dead easy, this stereotyping.
    Brits are expert at stereotyping.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Wonderful whinge on the WATO from a women complaining that she won't get a pension at 60. One of her arguments against being treated equally to men is that in the past she wasn't and her example of this was that when she was younger she was once told she couldn't order drinks at a bar. Wow!

    Worth hearing if only because it shows (as per our discussion on the previous thread) that whatever people say about wanting to pay more taxes/have equality etc in practice if it makes them worse off they suddenly become a special case.

    And, second, there was an interesting discussion about how previous governments had effectively snaffled the relevant pension fund for current spending, how this was a disgrace etc. So governments seizing pension funds could become a political headache, not just for those doing it but also those thinking about it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    John_M said:

    I see today is PB's occasional foray into Remainer self-help groupery. 'Leavers, they're so stupid and racist and racist and stupid. I shall stamp my foot over and over and over'. Bless.

    John, me old China, sometimes you just have to tell it as it is. Anyone voting for Brexit who was unaware of the consequences for the island of Ireland can be categorised as a moron.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565

    This is extraordinary:

    14.18: Patisserie Valerie has just published another trading update, after revealing this morning potentially fraudulent accounting irregularities.

    The bakery chain says it has only today become aware of a winding up petition that was filed with the High Court of Justice on 14 September.

    The petition relates to a £1.14m payment due to HM Revenue & Customs and a hearing date is listed for 31 October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/10/investors-cautious-ahead-of-uk-growth-figures-business-live

    It's quite a day for cake shops, one way and another.
    Sounds like they tried to have their cake and sell it, and got done for fraud....

    The DUP threat on the budget feels like the end-game approaching here. A much more credible threat than the ERG blocking Government legislation. Presumably the budget votes will be the week after October 29th so the first week of November? That would bring things to a head *before* the November summit which we thought was the goal.

    How many pledges from Labour MPs would Theresa May need to tell the DUP to get stuffed? Considerably more than she has, is my guess.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    UK expects to lose 5,000 City jobs through Brexit
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45811006

    What is the flag signal for "England Expects Every Man To Collect His P45".
    November Charlie is the appropriate signal for Brexit.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

    Who needs experts? ;)
    Experts in their field of expertise are usually interesting (albeit not always right)

    Experts claiming their specialism gives them unique insights into broader questions have limited value

    For example I might (theoretically) like Kayne West’s music but not his political insight
    I like one of Kanye West's tracks, Goldigga ft Jamie Foxx.

    I hate myself so much for that.
    Monday is over-sharing night.

    (Are you at the Dorchester party tonight?)
    Alas no.
  • tpfkar said:

    This is extraordinary:

    14.18: Patisserie Valerie has just published another trading update, after revealing this morning potentially fraudulent accounting irregularities.

    The bakery chain says it has only today become aware of a winding up petition that was filed with the High Court of Justice on 14 September.

    The petition relates to a £1.14m payment due to HM Revenue & Customs and a hearing date is listed for 31 October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/10/investors-cautious-ahead-of-uk-growth-figures-business-live

    It's quite a day for cake shops, one way and another.
    Sounds like they tried to have their cake and sell it, and got done for fraud....

    The DUP threat on the budget feels like the end-game approaching here. A much more credible threat than the ERG blocking Government legislation. Presumably the budget votes will be the week after October 29th so the first week of November? That would bring things to a head *before* the November summit which we thought was the goal.

    How many pledges from Labour MPs would Theresa May need to tell the DUP to get stuffed? Considerably more than she has, is my guess.

    Why would she want to tell the DUP to get stuffed? She agrees with them.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

    What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

    They must be counting the days.....

    You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers
    And of course fat Frenchies are unknown - Roger says so.
    The stats are skewed. Plenty of fat French men. But their women are neurotic, afraid to consume a calorie in case their husbands don't come back to them from their younger, thinner mistresses....

    Dead easy, this stereotyping.
    Brits are expert at stereotyping.
    We are a million times better at stereotyping than anyone else, and we're world class at hyperbole too.
  • TOPPING said:

    Something had to happen and if you look at where we are now I think it was and is worthwhile. I of course understand that some people object vehemently but I believe it was the right thing.

    No the GFA was the right thing. The subsequent shafting of Trimble and Hume to get SFDUP on board less so. Those yelling about extremists and bigots might just like to reflect how they got there.
    Weren't SF on board from the start? How did Trimble and Hume get shafted?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited October 2018
    tpfkar said:

    This is extraordinary:

    14.18: Patisserie Valerie has just published another trading update, after revealing this morning potentially fraudulent accounting irregularities.

    The bakery chain says it has only today become aware of a winding up petition that was filed with the High Court of Justice on 14 September.

    The petition relates to a £1.14m payment due to HM Revenue & Customs and a hearing date is listed for 31 October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/10/investors-cautious-ahead-of-uk-growth-figures-business-live

    It's quite a day for cake shops, one way and another.
    Sounds like they tried to have their cake and sell it, and got done for fraud....

    The DUP threat on the budget feels like the end-game approaching here. A much more credible threat than the ERG blocking Government legislation. Presumably the budget votes will be the week after October 29th so the first week of November? That would bring things to a head *before* the November summit which we thought was the goal.

    How many pledges from Labour MPs would Theresa May need to tell the DUP to get stuffed? Considerably more than she has, is my guess.

    The DUP shifting from supporting the government to opposing the government would by itself sink it unless the government can get opposition backing or mass abstentions. For Brexit, that's imaginable. For the budget, no chance surely?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    I see today is PB's occasional foray into Remainer self-help groupery. 'Leavers, they're so stupid and racist and racist and stupid. I shall stamp my foot over and over and over'. Bless.

    John, me old China, sometimes you just have to tell it as it is. Anyone voting for Brexit who was unaware of the consequences for the island of Ireland can be categorised as a moron.
    Perhaps David should have thought a little harder about the question on the ballot.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Charles said:

    This is doing the rounds on FB. I do not know if it is on many men's FB feeds, but I have seen lots of women sharing it.

    It might explain that gender gap. Scroll down until you get to the tweets then start reading (Kavanaugh & Trump turn up near the end of the tweets)

    https://www.boredpanda.com/nut-kicking-analogy-brett-kavanaugh-case/

    That's very powerful.
    Imagine that there was some proof for the claims. Imagine that we still believed in innocence until proven guilty. Imagine that hue and cry and the Lynch mob remained in the past where they belong.
    Very good Charles. Well done. Did you even read it?

    Women have been harassed sexually since time immemorial and they have lots of experience of men saying things like "Imagine that there was some proof"

    The hue and cry of the sexual lynch-mob needs to stay in the present and exist in the future because sexual harassment - of BOTH sexes - needs to stop. The way we did it in the past has to stop because all we did was cover up and denial.

    The whole thing was not necessarily about Kavanaugh & Trump - that just gives a modern context for a problem that has existed for a long time - that a man's status is more important than any women he assaulted or raped. Blame the victim.

    It has to stop.

    #meToo

    [Footnote - if you fail to grasp this then do not place money on any election in the USA in which females vote, because they do grasp the problem - thus the polls above - and I hope they vote the dinosaurs and abusers out]
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Wonderful whinge on the WATO from a women complaining that she won't get a pension at 60. One of her arguments against being treated equally to men is that in the past she wasn't and her example of this was that when she was younger she was once told she couldn't order drinks at a bar. Wow!

    Worth hearing if only because it shows (as per our discussion on the previous thread) that whatever people say about wanting to pay more taxes/have equality etc in practice if it makes them worse off they suddenly become a special case.

    And, second, there was an interesting discussion about how previous governments had effectively snaffled the relevant pension fund for current spending, how this was a disgrace etc. So governments seizing pension funds could become a political headache, not just for those doing it but also those thinking about it.

    Yes, where's the campaign for more female rubbish collectors? I must have missed it. It's awful that about 99% are men at present.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    I see today is PB's occasional foray into Remainer self-help groupery. 'Leavers, they're so stupid and racist and racist and stupid. I shall stamp my foot over and over and over'. Bless.

    John, me old China, sometimes you just have to tell it as it is. Anyone voting for Brexit who was unaware of the consequences for the island of Ireland can be categorised as a moron.
    Perhaps David should have thought a little harder about the question on the ballot.
    Why so?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Charles said:

    This is doing the rounds on FB. I do not know if it is on many men's FB feeds, but I have seen lots of women sharing it.

    It might explain that gender gap. Scroll down until you get to the tweets then start reading (Kavanaugh & Trump turn up near the end of the tweets)

    https://www.boredpanda.com/nut-kicking-analogy-brett-kavanaugh-case/

    That's very powerful.
    Imagine that there was some proof for the claims. Imagine that we still believed in innocence until proven guilty. Imagine that hue and cry and the Lynch mob remained in the past where they belong.
    Imagine a world where, for generations, women have not been believed, or taken seriously, when they have been abused. Imagine women being told: "You deserved it, you dressed like a slut." Imagine women being wolf-whistled from building sites. Imagine churches covering up abuse by their priests and blaming the victims.

    Except we don't need to imagine it. That has been the reality. And we are sadly now reaping the consequences of that reality now our morals have improved.

    The question is how we cope with historic accusations of abuse from times when the system was not as open to listening to accusers as it is now. Justice demands they are listened to now, but the older a case is, the harder it is to achieve fairness to all parties. And abuse cases are difficult even when current.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Charles said:

    This is doing the rounds on FB. I do not know if it is on many men's FB feeds, but I have seen lots of women sharing it.

    It might explain that gender gap. Scroll down until you get to the tweets then start reading (Kavanaugh & Trump turn up near the end of the tweets)

    https://www.boredpanda.com/nut-kicking-analogy-brett-kavanaugh-case/

    That's very powerful.
    Imagine that there was some proof for the claims. Imagine that we still believed in innocence until proven guilty. Imagine that hue and cry and the Lynch mob remained in the past where they belong.
    Very good Charles. Well done. Did you even read it?

    Women have been harassed sexually since time immemorial and they have lots of experience of men saying things like "Imagine that there was some proof"

    The hue and cry of the sexual lynch-mob needs to stay in the present and exist in the future because sexual harassment - of BOTH sexes - needs to stop. The way we did it in the past has to stop because all we did was cover up and denial.

    The whole thing was not necessarily about Kavanaugh & Trump - that just gives a modern context for a problem that has existed for a long time - that a man's status is more important than any women he assaulted or raped. Blame the victim.

    It has to stop.

    #meToo

    [Footnote - if you fail to grasp this then do not place money on any election in the USA in which females vote, because they do grasp the problem - thus the polls above - and I hope they vote the dinosaurs and abusers out]
    That's quite a sweeping statement at the end there.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    I see today is PB's occasional foray into Remainer self-help groupery. 'Leavers, they're so stupid and racist and racist and stupid. I shall stamp my foot over and over and over'. Bless.

    John, me old China, sometimes you just have to tell it as it is. Anyone voting for Brexit who was unaware of the consequences for the island of Ireland can be categorised as a moron.
    Perhaps David should have thought a little harder about the question on the ballot.
    Why so?
    How would it go?

    'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union, bearing in mind that if you vote to Leave, Ireland will erupt in flames, so please don't be a moron'.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Wonderful whinge on the WATO from a women complaining that she won't get a pension at 60.

    Equality is equality and we have to take the rough with the smooth.

    Of course, the truth is that we are nowhere near equality yet, although we are closer than our mothers, grandmothers, etc.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565

    tpfkar said:

    This is extraordinary:

    14.18: Patisserie Valerie has just published another trading update, after revealing this morning potentially fraudulent accounting irregularities.

    The bakery chain says it has only today become aware of a winding up petition that was filed with the High Court of Justice on 14 September.

    The petition relates to a £1.14m payment due to HM Revenue & Customs and a hearing date is listed for 31 October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/10/investors-cautious-ahead-of-uk-growth-figures-business-live

    It's quite a day for cake shops, one way and another.
    Sounds like they tried to have their cake and sell it, and got done for fraud....

    The DUP threat on the budget feels like the end-game approaching here. A much more credible threat than the ERG blocking Government legislation. Presumably the budget votes will be the week after October 29th so the first week of November? That would bring things to a head *before* the November summit which we thought was the goal.

    How many pledges from Labour MPs would Theresa May need to tell the DUP to get stuffed? Considerably more than she has, is my guess.

    The DUP shifting from supporting the government to opposing the government would by itself sink it unless the government can get opposition backing or mass abstentions. For Brexit, that's imaginable. For the budget, no chance surely?
    Yep I'd agree, that's why this DUP move may be very significant. To withdraw support on a supply issue *before* the meaningful vote would make it impossible to find a way round it (other than delaying the budget votes?) Who knows, the timing of the budget may end up being a huge own-goal in this whole process?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    This is doing the rounds on FB. I do not know if it is on many men's FB feeds, but I have seen lots of women sharing it.

    It might explain that gender gap. Scroll down until you get to the tweets then start reading (Kavanaugh & Trump turn up near the end of the tweets)

    https://www.boredpanda.com/nut-kicking-analogy-brett-kavanaugh-case/

    That's very powerful.
    Imagine that there was some proof for the claims. Imagine that we still believed in innocence until proven guilty. Imagine that hue and cry and the Lynch mob remained in the past where they belong.
    Very good Charles. Well done. Did you even read it?

    Women have been harassed sexually since time immemorial and they have lots of experience of men saying things like "Imagine that there was some proof"

    The hue and cry of the sexual lynch-mob needs to stay in the present and exist in the future because sexual harassment - of BOTH sexes - needs to stop. The way we did it in the past has to stop because all we did was cover up and denial.

    The whole thing was not necessarily about Kavanaugh & Trump - that just gives a modern context for a problem that has existed for a long time - that a man's status is more important than any women he assaulted or raped. Blame the victim.

    It has to stop.

    #meToo

    [Footnote - if you fail to grasp this then do not place money on any election in the USA in which females vote, because they do grasp the problem - thus the polls above - and I hope they vote the dinosaurs and abusers out]
    That's quite a sweeping statement at the end there.
    Which "end"? The first one or the footnote?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    The aim is presumably to get rid of Theresa May not to install Jeremy Corbyn. Presumably they reckon that they can achieve the first without the second occurring. I'm not sure they've worked the mechanics through.

    The DUP have always been brilliant strategists but the wheels seem to have come off their wagon since they threw in their lot with Brexit based on sentiment rather than acting on cold calculation (which would have led them to back Remain).
    In these circumstances the DUP toppling Mrs May over Brexit in my view leads to an early election that sees Corbyn head of a multi party coalition.
    I don't see a coalition coming to pass - a Minority Government more likely.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Cyclefree said:

    Wonderful whinge on the WATO from a women complaining that she won't get a pension at 60.

    Equality is equality and we have to take the rough with the smooth.

    Of course, the truth is that we are nowhere near equality yet, although we are closer than our mothers, grandmothers, etc.
    It's human nature to want equal treatment when one benefits from it, but to find reasons for special treatment when one doesn't.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Charles said:

    This is doing the rounds on FB. I do not know if it is on many men's FB feeds, but I have seen lots of women sharing it.

    It might explain that gender gap. Scroll down until you get to the tweets then start reading (Kavanaugh & Trump turn up near the end of the tweets)

    https://www.boredpanda.com/nut-kicking-analogy-brett-kavanaugh-case/

    That's very powerful.
    Imagine that there was some proof for the claims. Imagine that we still believed in innocence until proven guilty. Imagine that hue and cry and the Lynch mob remained in the past where they belong.
    Imagine a world where, for generations, women have not been believed, or taken seriously, when they have been abused. Imagine women being told: "You deserved it, you dressed like a slut." Imagine women being wolf-whistled from building sites. Imagine churches covering up abuse by their priests and blaming the victims.

    Except we don't need to imagine it. That has been the reality. And we are sadly now reaping the consequences of that reality now our morals have improved.

    The question is how we cope with historic accusations of abuse from times when the system was not as open to listening to accusers as it is now. Justice demands they are listened to now, but the older a case is, the harder it is to achieve fairness to all parties. And abuse cases are difficult even when current.
    :+1: Well said.

    Thank you
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2018
    justin124 said:

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    The aim is presumably to get rid of Theresa May not to install Jeremy Corbyn. Presumably they reckon that they can achieve the first without the second occurring. I'm not sure they've worked the mechanics through.

    The DUP have always been brilliant strategists but the wheels seem to have come off their wagon since they threw in their lot with Brexit based on sentiment rather than acting on cold calculation (which would have led them to back Remain).
    In these circumstances the DUP toppling Mrs May over Brexit in my view leads to an early election that sees Corbyn head of a multi party coalition.
    I don't see a coalition coming to pass - a Minority Government more likely.
    Yes, no other party in its right mind would want to be too associated with the inevitable Corbyn/McDonnell disaster.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    TOPPING said:

    Something had to happen and if you look at where we are now I think it was and is worthwhile. I of course understand that some people object vehemently but I believe it was the right thing.

    No the GFA was the right thing. The subsequent shafting of Trimble and Hume to get SFDUP on board less so. Those yelling about extremists and bigots might just like to reflect how they got there.
    Weren't SF on board from the start? How did Trimble and Hume get shafted?
    they signed it but were convinced they could do the occasional kneecapping, kidnapping , espionage ,murder etc when it suited.
  • justin124 said:

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    The aim is presumably to get rid of Theresa May not to install Jeremy Corbyn. Presumably they reckon that they can achieve the first without the second occurring. I'm not sure they've worked the mechanics through.

    The DUP have always been brilliant strategists but the wheels seem to have come off their wagon since they threw in their lot with Brexit based on sentiment rather than acting on cold calculation (which would have led them to back Remain).
    In these circumstances the DUP toppling Mrs May over Brexit in my view leads to an early election that sees Corbyn head of a multi party coalition.
    I don't see a coalition coming to pass - a Minority Government more likely.
    Yes, no other party in its right mind would want to be too associated with the inevitable Corbyn/McDonnell disaster.
    If Corbyn offered the SNP another Indyref they'd be on board.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

    Who needs experts? ;)
    Experts in their field of expertise are usually interesting (albeit not always right)

    Experts claiming their specialism gives them unique insights into broader questions have limited value

    For example I might (theoretically) like Kayne West’s music but not his political insight
    I like one of Kanye West's tracks, Goldigga ft Jamie Foxx.

    I hate myself so much for that.
    Monday is over-sharing night.

    (Are you at the Dorchester party tonight?)
    Alas no.
    A little nervous as I have been invited as a guest of a former treasurer...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tpfkar said:

    tpfkar said:

    This is extraordinary:

    14.18: Patisserie Valerie has just published another trading update, after revealing this morning potentially fraudulent accounting irregularities.

    The bakery chain says it has only today become aware of a winding up petition that was filed with the High Court of Justice on 14 September.

    The petition relates to a £1.14m payment due to HM Revenue & Customs and a hearing date is listed for 31 October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/10/investors-cautious-ahead-of-uk-growth-figures-business-live

    It's quite a day for cake shops, one way and another.
    Sounds like they tried to have their cake and sell it, and got done for fraud....

    The DUP threat on the budget feels like the end-game approaching here. A much more credible threat than the ERG blocking Government legislation. Presumably the budget votes will be the week after October 29th so the first week of November? That would bring things to a head *before* the November summit which we thought was the goal.

    How many pledges from Labour MPs would Theresa May need to tell the DUP to get stuffed? Considerably more than she has, is my guess.

    The DUP shifting from supporting the government to opposing the government would by itself sink it unless the government can get opposition backing or mass abstentions. For Brexit, that's imaginable. For the budget, no chance surely?
    Yep I'd agree, that's why this DUP move may be very significant. To withdraw support on a supply issue *before* the meaningful vote would make it impossible to find a way round it (other than delaying the budget votes?) Who knows, the timing of the budget may end up being a huge own-goal in this whole process?
    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.
  • justin124 said:

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    The aim is presumably to get rid of Theresa May not to install Jeremy Corbyn. Presumably they reckon that they can achieve the first without the second occurring. I'm not sure they've worked the mechanics through.

    The DUP have always been brilliant strategists but the wheels seem to have come off their wagon since they threw in their lot with Brexit based on sentiment rather than acting on cold calculation (which would have led them to back Remain).
    In these circumstances the DUP toppling Mrs May over Brexit in my view leads to an early election that sees Corbyn head of a multi party coalition.
    I don't see a coalition coming to pass - a Minority Government more likely.
    Yes, no other party in its right mind would want to be too associated with the inevitable Corbyn/McDonnell disaster.
    If Corbyn offered the SNP another Indyref they'd be on board.
    But not in a coalition.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

    Who needs experts? ;)
    Experts in their field of expertise are usually interesting (albeit not always right)

    Experts claiming their specialism gives them unique insights into broader questions have limited value

    For example I might (theoretically) like Kayne West’s music but not his political insight
    I like one of Kanye West's tracks, Goldigga ft Jamie Foxx.

    I hate myself so much for that.
    Monday is over-sharing night.

    (Are you at the Dorchester party tonight?)
    Alas no.
    A little nervous as I have been invited as a guest of a former treasurer...
    Lucky you.
  • There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
  • justin124 said:

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    The aim is presumably to get rid of Theresa May not to install Jeremy Corbyn. Presumably they reckon that they can achieve the first without the second occurring. I'm not sure they've worked the mechanics through.

    The DUP have always been brilliant strategists but the wheels seem to have come off their wagon since they threw in their lot with Brexit based on sentiment rather than acting on cold calculation (which would have led them to back Remain).
    In these circumstances the DUP toppling Mrs May over Brexit in my view leads to an early election that sees Corbyn head of a multi party coalition.
    I don't see a coalition coming to pass - a Minority Government more likely.
    Yes, no other party in its right mind would want to be too associated with the inevitable Corbyn/McDonnell disaster.
    If Corbyn offered the SNP another Indyref they'd be on board.
    But not in a coalition.
    Would they really turn down the opportunity of the first SNP Secretary of State for Scotland.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    This is doing the rounds on FB. I do not know if it is on many men's FB feeds, but I have seen lots of women sharing it.

    It might explain that gender gap. Scroll down until you get to the tweets then start reading (Kavanaugh & Trump turn up near the end of the tweets)

    https://www.boredpanda.com/nut-kicking-analogy-brett-kavanaugh-case/

    That's very powerful.
    Imagine that there was some proof for the claims. Imagine that we still believed in innocence until proven guilty. Imagine that hue and cry and the Lynch mob remained in the past where they belong.
    Very good Charles. Well done. Did you even read it?

    Women have been harassed sexually since time immemorial and they have lots of experience of men saying things like "Imagine that there was some proof"

    The hue and cry of the sexual lynch-mob needs to stay in the present and exist in the future because sexual harassment - of BOTH sexes - needs to stop. The way we did it in the past has to stop because all we did was cover up and denial.

    The whole thing was not necessarily about Kavanaugh & Trump - that just gives a modern context for a problem that has existed for a long time - that a man's status is more important than any women he assaulted or raped. Blame the victim.

    It has to stop.

    #meToo

    [Footnote - if you fail to grasp this then do not place money on any election in the USA in which females vote, because they do grasp the problem - thus the polls above - and I hope they vote the dinosaurs and abusers out]
    I did, and I completely agree with the principle that sexual assault (I don't really distinguish between sexual harassment and sexual assault) is wrong, should be condemned and punished where the evidence is available. Blaming the victim is wrong.

    Trump is clearly a deeply unpleasant man. I wouldn't have voted for him had I had a vote (and my wife voted for Johnson, despite not liking some of his views).

    But the issue I have with hue and cry is that people get punished regardless of guilty or innocent. A society which encourages denunciation and regards that as sufficient for conviction is not one I want to see

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    tpfkar said:

    tpfkar said:

    This is extraordinary:

    14.18: Patisserie Valerie has just published another trading update, after revealing this morning potentially fraudulent accounting irregularities.

    The bakery chain says it has only today become aware of a winding up petition that was filed with the High Court of Justice on 14 September.

    The petition relates to a £1.14m payment due to HM Revenue & Customs and a hearing date is listed for 31 October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/10/investors-cautious-ahead-of-uk-growth-figures-business-live

    It's quite a day for cake shops, one way and another.
    Sounds like they tried to have their cake and sell it, and got done for fraud....

    The DUP threat on the budget feels like the end-game approaching here. A much more credible threat than the ERG blocking Government legislation. Presumably the budget votes will be the week after October 29th so the first week of November? That would bring things to a head *before* the November summit which we thought was the goal.

    How many pledges from Labour MPs would Theresa May need to tell the DUP to get stuffed? Considerably more than she has, is my guess.

    The DUP shifting from supporting the government to opposing the government would by itself sink it unless the government can get opposition backing or mass abstentions. For Brexit, that's imaginable. For the budget, no chance surely?
    Yep I'd agree, that's why this DUP move may be very significant. To withdraw support on a supply issue *before* the meaningful vote would make it impossible to find a way round it (other than delaying the budget votes?) Who knows, the timing of the budget may end up being a huge own-goal in this whole process?
    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.
    The whole fudge show rolls into November.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    justin124 said:

    So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.
    The aim is presumably to get rid of Theresa May not to install Jeremy Corbyn. Presumably they reckon that they can achieve the first without the second occurring. I'm not sure they've worked the mechanics through.

    The DUP have always been brilliant strategists but the wheels seem to have come off their wagon since they threw in their lot with Brexit based on sentiment rather than acting on cold calculation (which would have led them to back Remain).
    In these circumstances the DUP toppling Mrs May over Brexit in my view leads to an early election that sees Corbyn head of a multi party coalition.
    I don't see a coalition coming to pass - a Minority Government more likely.
    Yes, no other party in its right mind would want to be too associated with the inevitable Corbyn/McDonnell disaster.
    If Corbyn offered the SNP another Indyref they'd be on board.
    I would not be surprised if that deal isn't already done.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
  • What West Virginia Swing Voters Think About Manchin's Kavanaugh Vote

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WelkOQUAWCw
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    This is doing the rounds on FB. I do not know if it is on many men's FB feeds, but I have seen lots of women sharing it.

    It might explain that gender gap. Scroll down until you get to the tweets then start reading (Kavanaugh & Trump turn up near the end of the tweets)

    https://www.boredpanda.com/nut-kicking-analogy-brett-kavanaugh-case/

    That's very powerful.
    Imagine that there was some proof for the claims. Imagine that we still believed in innocence until proven guilty. Imagine that hue and cry and the Lynch mob remained in the past where they belong.
    Imagine a world where, for generations, women have not been believed, or taken seriously, when they have been abused. Imagine women being told: "You deserved it, you dressed like a slut." Imagine women being wolf-whistled from building sites. Imagine churches covering up abuse by their priests and blaming the victims.

    Except we don't need to imagine it. That has been the reality. And we are sadly now reaping the consequences of that reality now our morals have improved.

    The question is how we cope with historic accusations of abuse from times when the system was not as open to listening to accusers as it is now. Justice demands they are listened to now, but the older a case is, the harder it is to achieve fairness to all parties. And abuse cases are difficult even when current.
    I agree. The old ways were wrong. The new ways should be better. But our liberties were hard won, and I fear that if they are lightly thrown away they will not be easy to regain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    But would the proposed plan meet Labour's tests? I thought the consensus view on here is that they'd vote against almost any deal.
  • There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    "Not for my budget or a confidence vote I can't".
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

    Who needs experts? ;)
    Experts in their field of expertise are usually interesting (albeit not always right)

    Experts claiming their specialism gives them unique insights into broader questions have limited value

    For example I might (theoretically) like Kayne West’s music but not his political insight
    I like one of Kanye West's tracks, Goldigga ft Jamie Foxx.

    I hate myself so much for that.
    Monday is over-sharing night.

    (Are you at the Dorchester party tonight?)
    Alas no.
    A little nervous as I have been invited as a guest of a former treasurer...
    Lucky you.
    He hasn't asked for anything yet...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    RobD said:

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    But would the proposed plan meet Labour's tests? I thought the consensus view on here is that they'd vote against almost any deal.
    The question is how many rebels would vote with the government if a deal were on the table and they believed the alternative was a no deal crash-out.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited October 2018
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    I see today is PB's occasional foray into Remainer self-help groupery. 'Leavers, they're so stupid and racist and racist and stupid. I shall stamp my foot over and over and over'. Bless.

    John, me old China, sometimes you just have to tell it as it is. Anyone voting for Brexit who was unaware of the consequences for the island of Ireland can be categorised as a moron.
    Perhaps David should have thought a little harder about the question on the ballot.
    Why so?
    How would it go?

    'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union, bearing in mind that if you vote to Leave, Ireland will erupt in flames, so please don't be a moron'.
    Droll as your post may be, you, like others, are missing the point. Allow me to simplify:

    Voting Leave and being:
    1) Indifferent to the fact that Ireland will erupt in flames
    2) Happy that Ireland will erupt in flames
    3) Eager that Ireland will erupt in flames

    = not moron.

    Voting Leave and being:
    1) Amazed, flabbergasted, or otherwise surprised that Ireland will erupt in flames

    = moron.
  • RobD said:

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    But would the proposed plan meet Labour's tests? I thought the consensus view on here is that they'd vote against almost any deal.
    The question is how many rebels would vote with the government if a deal were on the table and they believed the alternative was a no deal crash-out.
    Indeed, and I think the answer must be 'quite a few'. Whether that would be enough is anyone's guess.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    But would the proposed plan meet Labour's tests? I thought the consensus view on here is that they'd vote against almost any deal.
    The question is how many rebels would vote with the government if a deal were on the table and they believed the alternative was a no deal crash-out.
    Corbyn was telling Barnier about how many rebels would vote against his whip? I guess he has experience in that matter. :p
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

    Who needs experts? ;)
    Experts in their field of expertise are usually interesting (albeit not always right)

    Experts claiming their specialism gives them unique insights into broader questions have limited value

    For example I might (theoretically) like Kayne West’s music but not his political insight
    I like one of Kanye West's tracks, Goldigga ft Jamie Foxx.

    I hate myself so much for that.
    Monday is over-sharing night.

    (Are you at the Dorchester party tonight?)
    Alas no.
    A little nervous as I have been invited as a guest of a former treasurer...
    Lucky you.
    He hasn't asked for anything yet...
    Why do I think he's going to open a jeroboam of Dom Pérignon Rose Gold then ask you for a donation.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    Until Paisley's suspension ends in late November the DUP have a mere 9 votes.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    I see today is PB's occasional foray into Remainer self-help groupery. 'Leavers, they're so stupid and racist and racist and stupid. I shall stamp my foot over and over and over'. Bless.

    John, me old China, sometimes you just have to tell it as it is. Anyone voting for Brexit who was unaware of the consequences for the island of Ireland can be categorised as a moron.
    Perhaps David should have thought a little harder about the question on the ballot.
    Why so?
    How would it go?

    'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union, bearing in mind that if you vote to Leave, Ireland will erupt in flames, so please don't be a moron'.
    Droll as your post may be, you, like others, are missing the point. Allow me to simplify:

    Voting Leave and being:
    1) Indifferent to the fact that Ireland will erupt in flames
    2) Happy that Ireland will erupt in flames
    3) Eager that Ireland will erupt in flames

    = not moron.

    Voting Leave and being:
    1) Amazed, flabbergasted, or otherwise surprised that Ireland will erupt in flames

    = moron.
    You're applying your intelligence and ability to see consequences to the electorate at large. I'm not sure that's sensible.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    RobD said:

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    But would the proposed plan meet Labour's tests? I thought the consensus view on here is that they'd vote against almost any deal.
    The question is how many rebels would vote with the government if a deal were on the table and they believed the alternative was a no deal crash-out.
    But it's very unlikely that the only alternative will be a no deal crash out. There are bound to be amendments demanding a new referendum and/or an extension of article 50.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    justin124 said:

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    Until Paisley's suspension ends in late November the DUP have a mere 9 votes.
    How convenient that matters appear to be dragging out... :p
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752

    RobD said:

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    But would the proposed plan meet Labour's tests? I thought the consensus view on here is that they'd vote against almost any deal.
    The question is how many rebels would vote with the government if a deal were on the table and they believed the alternative was a no deal crash-out.
    But it's very unlikely that the only alternative will be a no deal crash out. There are bound to be amendments demanding a new referendum and/or an extension of article 50.
    Even with no amendments, voting against the deal doesn't automatically lead to any other particular outcome, even if some want to frame it as a deal or no deal choice. It's perfectly conceivable they could vote against the deal, and then vote for it after more pressure.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    matt said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    I see today is PB's occasional foray into Remainer self-help groupery. 'Leavers, they're so stupid and racist and racist and stupid. I shall stamp my foot over and over and over'. Bless.

    John, me old China, sometimes you just have to tell it as it is. Anyone voting for Brexit who was unaware of the consequences for the island of Ireland can be categorised as a moron.
    Perhaps David should have thought a little harder about the question on the ballot.
    Why so?
    How would it go?

    'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union, bearing in mind that if you vote to Leave, Ireland will erupt in flames, so please don't be a moron'.
    Droll as your post may be, you, like others, are missing the point. Allow me to simplify:

    Voting Leave and being:
    1) Indifferent to the fact that Ireland will erupt in flames
    2) Happy that Ireland will erupt in flames
    3) Eager that Ireland will erupt in flames

    = not moron.

    Voting Leave and being:
    1) Amazed, flabbergasted, or otherwise surprised that Ireland will erupt in flames

    = moron.
    You're applying your intelligence and ability to see consequences to the electorate at large. I'm not sure that's sensible.
    Well tbf I am also saying that such intelligence and ability is not possessed by one sub-section of the electorate.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

    Who needs experts? ;)
    Experts in their field of expertise are usually interesting (albeit not always right)

    Experts claiming their specialism gives them unique insights into broader questions have limited value

    For example I might (theoretically) like Kayne West’s music but not his political insight
    I like one of Kanye West's tracks, Goldigga ft Jamie Foxx.

    I hate myself so much for that.
    Monday is over-sharing night.

    (Are you at the Dorchester party tonight?)
    Alas no.
    A little nervous as I have been invited as a guest of a former treasurer...
    Lucky you.
    He hasn't asked for anything yet...
    Why do I think he's going to open a jeroboam of Dom Pérignon Rose Gold then ask you for a donation.
    As a pessimist I think he will jump straight to stage two...
  • But it's very unlikely that the only alternative will be a no deal crash out. There are bound to be amendments demanding a new referendum and/or an extension of article 50.

    An amendment doesn't make either of those happen, and there's no time for a referendum anyway.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Cynics might observe they are not Russian.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    Until Paisley's suspension ends in late November the DUP have a mere 9 votes.
    How convenient that matters appear to be dragging out... :p
    But the BBC apears to have forgotten about Paisley's suspension
    'The Democratic Unionist Party's 10 Westminster MPs are planning to vote down the Budget later this month if they are unhappy about the government's Brexit plans, the BBC understands'
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    This is doing the rounds on FB. I do not know if it is on many men's FB feeds, but I have seen lots of women sharing it.

    It might explain that gender gap. Scroll down until you get to the tweets then start reading (Kavanaugh & Trump turn up near the end of the tweets)

    https://www.boredpanda.com/nut-kicking-analogy-brett-kavanaugh-case/

    That's very powerful.
    Imagine that there was some proof for the claims. Imagine that we still believed in innocence until proven guilty. Imagine that hue and cry and the Lynch mob remained in the past where they belong.
    Very good Charles. Well done. Did you even read it?

    Women have been harassed sexually since time immemorial and they have lots of experience of men saying things like "Imagine that there was some proof"

    The hue and cry of the sexual lynch-mob needs to stay in the present and exist in the future because sexual harassment - of BOTH sexes - needs to stop. The way we did it in the past has to stop because all we did was cover up and denial.

    The whole thing was not necessarily about Kavanaugh & Trump - that just gives a modern context for a problem that has existed for a long time - that a man's status is more important than any women he assaulted or raped. Blame the victim.

    It has to stop.

    #meToo

    [Footnote - if you fail to grasp this then do not place money on any election in the USA in which females vote, because they do grasp the problem - thus the polls above - and I hope they vote the dinosaurs and abusers out]
    I did, and I completely agree with the principle that sexual assault (I don't really distinguish between sexual harassment and sexual assault) is wrong, should be condemned and punished where the evidence is available. Blaming the victim is wrong.

    Trump is clearly a deeply unpleasant man. I wouldn't have voted for him had I had a vote (and my wife voted for Johnson, despite not liking some of his views).

    But the issue I have with hue and cry is that people get punished regardless of guilty or innocent. A society which encourages denunciation and regards that as sufficient for conviction is not one I want to see

    +1
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    I see today is PB's occasional foray into Remainer self-help groupery. 'Leavers, they're so stupid and racist and racist and stupid. I shall stamp my foot over and over and over'. Bless.

    John, me old China, sometimes you just have to tell it as it is. Anyone voting for Brexit who was unaware of the consequences for the island of Ireland can be categorised as a moron.
    Perhaps David should have thought a little harder about the question on the ballot.
    Why so?
    How would it go?

    'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union, bearing in mind that if you vote to Leave, Ireland will erupt in flames, so please don't be a moron'.
    Droll as your post may be, you, like others, are missing the point. Allow me to simplify:

    Voting Leave and being:
    1) Indifferent to the fact that Ireland will erupt in flames
    2) Happy that Ireland will erupt in flames
    3) Eager that Ireland will erupt in flames

    = not moron.

    Voting Leave and being:
    1) Amazed, flabbergasted, or otherwise surprised that Ireland will erupt in flames

    = moron.
    so whos going to be killing who ?

    Id like to tip off my brother
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    Until Paisley's suspension ends in late November the DUP have a mere 9 votes.
    How convenient that matters appear to be dragging out... :p
    But the BBC apears to have forgotten about Paisley's suspension
    'The Democratic Unionist Party's 10 Westminster MPs are planning to vote down the Budget later this month if they are unhappy about the government's Brexit plans, the BBC understands'
    That’s still serious for the government, even if it’s a “mere” 9 votes.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    I see today is PB's occasional foray into Remainer self-help groupery. 'Leavers, they're so stupid and racist and racist and stupid. I shall stamp my foot over and over and over'. Bless.

    John, me old China, sometimes you just have to tell it as it is. Anyone voting for Brexit who was unaware of the consequences for the island of Ireland can be categorised as a moron.
    Perhaps David should have thought a little harder about the question on the ballot.
    Why so?
    How would it go?

    'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union, bearing in mind that if you vote to Leave, Ireland will erupt in flames, so please don't be a moron'.
    I think you missed out 'racist', for starters....
  • DUP 'could vote against the Budget' over Brexit deal

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45806063
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    This is doing the rounds on FB. I do not know if it is on many men's FB feeds, but I have seen lots of women sharing it.

    It might explain that gender gap. Scroll down until you get to the tweets then start reading (Kavanaugh & Trump turn up near the end of the tweets)

    https://www.boredpanda.com/nut-kicking-analogy-brett-kavanaugh-case/

    That's very powerful.
    Imagine that there was some proof for the claims. Imagine that we still believed in innocence until proven guilty. Imagine that hue and cry and the Lynch mob remained in the past where they belong.
    Very good Charles. Well done. Did you even read it?

    Women have been harassed sexually since time immemorial and they have lots of experience of men saying things like "Imagine that there was some proof"

    The hue and cry of the sexual lynch-mob needs to stay in the present and exist in the future because sexual harassment - of BOTH sexes - needs to stop. The way we did it in the past has to stop because all we did was cover up and denial.

    The whole thing was not necessarily about Kavanaugh & Trump - that just gives a modern context for a problem that has existed for a long time - that a man's status is more important than any women he assaulted or raped. Blame the victim.

    It has to stop.

    #meToo

    [Footnote - if you fail to grasp this then do not place money on any election in the USA in which females vote, because they do grasp the problem - thus the polls above - and I hope they vote the dinosaurs and abusers out]
    I did, and I completely agree with the principle that sexual assault (I don't really distinguish between sexual harassment and sexual assault) is wrong, should be condemned and punished where the evidence is available. Blaming the victim is wrong.

    Trump is clearly a deeply unpleasant man. I wouldn't have voted for him had I had a vote (and my wife voted for Johnson, despite not liking some of his views).

    But the issue I have with hue and cry is that people get punished regardless of guilty or innocent. A society which encourages denunciation and regards that as sufficient for conviction is not one I want to see

    Thank you for the clarification on your position, but on the "Kavanaugh case" - he was accused, the issue was examined, law enforcement looked at it and he was cleared by them and proceeded to get the job. In his case "the hue and cry" made no difference. Personally, I make no judgement on Kavanaugh, but what this episode did do was to highlight an issue that, all too often, is swept under the carpet.

    We need to make sexual harassment as socially unacceptable as paedophilia.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    DUP 'could vote against the Budget' over Brexit deal

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45806063

    Is anybody surprised?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    There's a simple way round this threat, which is for Theresa May to agree to nothing at next week's summit. Since that's what everyone is expecting anyway, I wonder whether this threat is in part for show.

    It strengthens her position. "Sorry, M. Barnier, even if we were willing to accept your backstop we'd never get it past Arlene and the hard men."
    "But Mrs. May, they only have 10 votes, and I know you can get more than that from Labour. I've spoken to them myself."
    Until Paisley's suspension ends in late November the DUP have a mere 9 votes.
    How convenient that matters appear to be dragging out... :p
    But the BBC apears to have forgotten about Paisley's suspension
    'The Democratic Unionist Party's 10 Westminster MPs are planning to vote down the Budget later this month if they are unhappy about the government's Brexit plans, the BBC understands'
    That’s still serious for the government, even if it’s a “mere” 9 votes.
    Indeed so - and,of course, Paisley's missing vote would effectively be an Abstention.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752

    But it's very unlikely that the only alternative will be a no deal crash out. There are bound to be amendments demanding a new referendum and/or an extension of article 50.

    An amendment doesn't make either of those happen, and there's no time for a referendum anyway.
    The AV referendum was within 11 weeks of the legislation gaining Royal assent so there's time, if parliament wanted it. Even controversial legislation has been passed within a month in recent history where there's been some urgency.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    But it's very unlikely that the only alternative will be a no deal crash out. There are bound to be amendments demanding a new referendum and/or an extension of article 50.

    An amendment doesn't make either of those happen, and there's no time for a referendum anyway.
    The AV referendum was within 11 weeks of the legislation gaining Royal assent so there's time, if parliament wanted it. Even controversial legislation has been passed within a month in recent history where there's been some urgency.
    But the Executive would have to be willing to table the Legislation required.
  • Just the sort of behaviour I'd expect from a supporter of more grammar schools.

    Education ministers have been issued with a stark warning from the statistics watchdog over attempts to “exaggerate” and distort data on the schools crisis.

    In an extraordinary letter to the Department for Education (DfE), Sir David Norgrove said ministers risk undermining public trust and he had “serious concerns” about four separate incidents.

    Distorted claims made in one tweet, one blog and two statements made by ministers failed to “give a full picture” about schools, Norgrove, chair of the UK Statistics Authority, said.

    A tweet issued by DfE last month claimed “there is more money going to our schools than ever before”, Norgrove said figures “misrepresent changes in school funding” by not adjusting for per pupil spend, and overall spending was therefore “exaggerated”.


    https://tinyurl.com/yd9jaam8
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    But it's very unlikely that the only alternative will be a no deal crash out. There are bound to be amendments demanding a new referendum and/or an extension of article 50.

    An amendment doesn't make either of those happen, and there's no time for a referendum anyway.
    The AV referendum was within 11 weeks of the legislation gaining Royal assent so there's time, if parliament wanted it. Even controversial legislation has been passed within a month in recent history where there's been some urgency.
    I cannot remember how long it took, but the Dangerous Dogs Act went through very quickly and was noted for being a shambles because so little debate occurred.

    The firearms one after Dunblane went through very quickly as well. Clearly Acts can happen fast if there is a need.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    AndyJS said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Wonderful whinge on the WATO from a women complaining that she won't get a pension at 60. One of her arguments against being treated equally to men is that in the past she wasn't and her example of this was that when she was younger she was once told she couldn't order drinks at a bar. Wow!

    Worth hearing if only because it shows (as per our discussion on the previous thread) that whatever people say about wanting to pay more taxes/have equality etc in practice if it makes them worse off they suddenly become a special case.

    And, second, there was an interesting discussion about how previous governments had effectively snaffled the relevant pension fund for current spending, how this was a disgrace etc. So governments seizing pension funds could become a political headache, not just for those doing it but also those thinking about it.

    Yes, where's the campaign for more female rubbish collectors? I must have missed it. It's awful that about 99% are men at present.
    Presumably that is because women have a strong preference away from such jobs. The campaigns arise in areas where they are being discriminated against, i.e. they want the jobs but feel they are being discriminated against so can't get them.
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