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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-Kavanaugh polling suggest the Democrats are moving up with less than 4 weeks to go

With so many different elections in 50 different states taking place on November 6th it can be hard to discern specific trends. One polling series is the Generic Congressional Vote and the latest numbers we have are in the CNN report overnight and posted above.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Kavanaughty.

TheScreamingEagles

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

malcolmg

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

You opened a thread just for yourself

Pulpstar

Frat lives matter

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

Yes, highly unlikely now. Especially according to Betfairs rules which would basically give the blue side 53 votes

Theuniondivvie

This seems contra the recent mood music. I wonder if the Trumpian tendency to describe everything as great for them is infecting analysis.

Sean_F

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

Yes, highly unlikely now. Especially according to Betfairs rules which would basically give the blue side 53 votes

If the Democrats did achieve a 13% lead over the Republicans in the House, they likely would gain the Senate as well. But CNN has regularly been giving 10%+ leads for the Democrats, in contrast to other generic polls showing more modest leads.

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

You opened a thread just for yourself

You new here? ;-P

Morris_Dancer

Hmm. Think I have bets on blue Texas and the Republicans keep the House. Could be wrong.

FPT Mr. Divvie, that's very unfair. Parliament wasn't actually blown up.

Sean_F

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

TheScreamingEagles

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

You opened a thread just for yourself

Is Mike’s thread.

I was uploading another thread on to the PB servers and noticed Mike had just published this thread.

Pure coincidence.

Pulpstar

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

Yes, highly unlikely now. Especially according to Betfairs rules which would basically give the blue side 53 votes

If the Democrats did achieve a 13% lead over the Republicans in the House, they likely would gain the Senate as well. But CNN has regularly been giving 10%+ leads for the Democrats, in contrast to other generic polls showing more modest leads.

Currently the Senate is 51 GOP - 47 Dem - 2 Ind.

Betfair's rules require 51 Dems to pay out on Dem majority. This not only involves the hold of North Dakota, Cruz losing his seat and Tennessee going blue but also the gain of the Mississippi special seat.

Here is how it voted in 2014.

Mississippi's US senate election, 2014[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thad Cochran (incumbent) 378,481 59.90
Democratic Travis Childers 239,439 37.89
Reform Shawn O'Hara 13,938 2.21

Even a 13% lead may not be enough to gain that.

It's not impossible, but the Dem 51st senate seat is a massive and unlikely task.

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

Yes, highly unlikely now. Especially according to Betfairs rules which would basically give the blue side 53 votes

If the Democrats did achieve a 13% lead over the Republicans in the House, they likely would gain the Senate as well. But CNN has regularly been giving 10%+ leads for the Democrats, in contrast to other generic polls showing more modest leads.

Currently the Senate is 51 GOP - 47 Dem - 2 Ind.

Betfair's rules require 51 Dems to pay out on Dem majority. This not only involves the hold of North Dakota, Cruz losing his seat and Tennessee going blue but also the gain of the Mississippi special seat.

Here is how it voted in 2014.

Mississippi's US senate election, 2014[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thad Cochran (incumbent) 378,481 59.90
Democratic Travis Childers 239,439 37.89
Reform Shawn O'Hara 13,938 2.21

Even a 13% lead may not be enough to gain that.

It's not impossible, but the Dem 51st senate seat is a massive and unlikely task.

I assume we have had confirmation that Sanders and King will continue to sit as independents?

MikeSmithson

The Betfair Senate rules "Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market."

AllyPally_Rob

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

Yes, highly unlikely now. Especially according to Betfairs rules which would basically give the blue side 53 votes

If the Democrats did achieve a 13% lead over the Republicans in the House, they likely would gain the Senate as well. But CNN has regularly been giving 10%+ leads for the Democrats, in contrast to other generic polls showing more modest leads.

Currently the Senate is 51 GOP - 47 Dem - 2 Ind.

Betfair's rules require 51 Dems to pay out on Dem majority. This not only involves the hold of North Dakota, Cruz losing his seat and Tennessee going blue but also the gain of the Mississippi special seat.

Here is how it voted in 2014.

Mississippi's US senate election, 2014[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thad Cochran (incumbent) 378,481 59.90
Democratic Travis Childers 239,439 37.89
Reform Shawn O'Hara 13,938 2.21

Even a 13% lead may not be enough to gain that.

It's not impossible, but the Dem 51st senate seat is a massive and unlikely task.

If the Dems manage to hold North Dakota and they Gain Nevada and Arizona I think that gets them to 51.

If they lose ND they need to pick up either Tennessee or Texas to compensate.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

It’s a very important ruling.

JosiasJessop

Sean_F said:

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

Who needs experts?

AllyPally_Rob

MikeSmithson said:

The Betfair Senate rules "Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market."

So they won't count Angus King or Bernie Sanders towards a DEM majority?! That's insane!

Philip_Thompson

AllyPally_Rob said:

MikeSmithson said:

The Betfair Senate rules "Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market."

So they won't count Angus King or Bernie Sanders towards a DEM majority?! That's insane!

For the same reason they won't count DUP towards a Tory majority. They're not Dems.

tlg86

JosiasJessop said:

Sean_F said:

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

Who needs experts?

The Northern Ireland courts, clearly.

logical_song

UK expects to lose 5,000 City jobs through Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45811006

AllyPally_Rob

Philip_Thompson said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

MikeSmithson said:

The Betfair Senate rules "Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market."

So they won't count Angus King or Bernie Sanders towards a DEM majority?! That's insane!

For the same reason they won't count DUP towards a Tory majority. They're not Dems.

Yes but they both caucus with the democrats and would therefore make Chuck Schumer the majority leader. That's what counts in terms of senate control.

Pulpstar

AllyPally_Rob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

Yes, highly unlikely now. Especially according to Betfairs rules which would basically give the blue side 53 votes

If the Democrats did achieve a 13% lead over the Republicans in the House, they likely would gain the Senate as well. But CNN has regularly been giving 10%+ leads for the Democrats, in contrast to other generic polls showing more modest leads.

Currently the Senate is 51 GOP - 47 Dem - 2 Ind.

Betfair's rules require 51 Dems to pay out on Dem majority. This not only involves the hold of North Dakota, Cruz losing his seat and Tennessee going blue but also the gain of the Mississippi special seat.

Here is how it voted in 2014.

Mississippi's US senate election, 2014[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thad Cochran (incumbent) 378,481 59.90
Democratic Travis Childers 239,439 37.89
Reform Shawn O'Hara 13,938 2.21

Even a 13% lead may not be enough to gain that.

It's not impossible, but the Dem 51st senate seat is a massive and unlikely task.

If the Dems manage to hold North Dakota and they Gain Nevada and Arizona I think that gets them to 51.

If they lose ND they need to pick up either Tennessee or Texas to compensate.

Hmm yes sorry missed out Nevada and Arizona in my analysis - but I think we're both wrong..

Gain Nevada, Arizona is +2...

So they need another 2. That's gaining Texas, Tennessee and holding North Dakota.

So MS-special is not needed, but basically the DEMs need to run perfectly in NV, AZ, TX, TN and ND.

Pulpstar

AllyPally_Rob said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

MikeSmithson said:

The Betfair Senate rules "Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market."

So they won't count Angus King or Bernie Sanders towards a DEM majority?! That's insane!

For the same reason they won't count DUP towards a Tory majority. They're not Dems.

Yes but they both caucus with the democrats and would therefore make Chuck Schumer the majority leader. That's what counts in terms of senate control.

Not for Betfair rules.

Richard_Nabavi

Pulpstar said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

Yes, highly unlikely now. Especially according to Betfairs rules which would basically give the blue side 53 votes

If the Democrats did achieve a 13% lead over the Republicans in the House, they likely would gain the Senate as well. But CNN has regularly been giving 10%+ leads for the Democrats, in contrast to other generic polls showing more modest leads.

Currently the Senate is 51 GOP - 47 Dem - 2 Ind.

Betfair's rules require 51 Dems to pay out on Dem majority. This not only involves the hold of North Dakota, Cruz losing his seat and Tennessee going blue but also the gain of the Mississippi special seat.

Here is how it voted in 2014.

Mississippi's US senate election, 2014[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thad Cochran (incumbent) 378,481 59.90
Democratic Travis Childers 239,439 37.89
Reform Shawn O'Hara 13,938 2.21

Even a 13% lead may not be enough to gain that.

It's not impossible, but the Dem 51st senate seat is a massive and unlikely task.

If the Dems manage to hold North Dakota and they Gain Nevada and Arizona I think that gets them to 51.

If they lose ND they need to pick up either Tennessee or Texas to compensate.

Hmm yes sorry missed out Nevada and Arizona in my analysis - but I think we're both wrong..

Gain Nevada, Arizona is +2...

So they need another 2. That's gaining Texas, Tennessee and holding North Dakota.

So MS-special is not needed, but basically the DEMs need to run perfectly in NV, AZ, TX, TN and ND.

Yes, that's correct. The Dems don't need the Missisipi special election to get to 51+2:

They need all the toss-ups plus the two 'Lean GOP' in this RCP map:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

Don't forget FL, which is by no means a shoo-in.

Incidentally, the results in FL may be affected by Hurricane Michael, a further complication in the mix.

TheWhiteRabbit

logical_song said:

UK expects to lose 5,000 City jobs through Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45811006

There are about 300,000 "City" jobs physically in the City, which has been growing at 10k-ish per year as of late.

It's only the disaster forecasts of c.75,000 jobs which make waves here

Pulpstar

AllyPally_Rob said:

MikeSmithson said:

The Betfair Senate rules "Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market."

So they won't count Angus King or Bernie Sanders towards a DEM majority?! That's insane!

I noted this mismatch between Betfair rules and media narrative/de-facto position of the senate a few threads back - here is a repost

Pulpstar said:

There are some mismatches on price and narrative punters should be aware of in the Betfair and 538 markets:
Betfair requires 51 GOP senators for a GOP Maj, when effectively 50 senators would allow the reds to keep control (Depending on what side of the bed Murkowski, Flake and Collins get out of in the morning). Pence has the casting vote, but 50 is not good enough for GOP maj on Betfair.
The Democrats can effectively take control with 49 senators... as King and Sanders aren't going to vote through GOP legislation. However Betfair needs 51 - so Dem Betfair control of the senate would be an utterly appalling night for the GOP and according to 538 looks very unlikely at the moment.

Here are the Betfair prices and 'true' odds.

True price (Using 538 model); Betfair price
Republican Maj 1.55 64.6% 1.46 - 1.49
No overall Maj 3.2 31.3% 3.9 - 4.1
Democrat Maj 24.39 4.1% 11 - 14

Dem Maj = 47 or less GOP senators
NOM = 48, 49 or 50 GOP Senators
Rep Maj = 51+ GOP Senators

AllyPally_Rob

@Pulpstar If you count the two independents who already caucus with the Dems that gets you to 51 I think.

Philip_Thompson

AllyPally_Rob said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

MikeSmithson said:

The Betfair Senate rules "Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market."

So they won't count Angus King or Bernie Sanders towards a DEM majority?! That's insane!

For the same reason they won't count DUP towards a Tory majority. They're not Dems.

Yes but they both caucus with the democrats and would therefore make Chuck Schumer the majority leader. That's what counts in terms of senate control.

So if you're betting on next majority leader they count, just as if you're betting on next PM.

OTOH if you're betting on overall majority they don't. Just as DUP may have made May remain PM but not in control of an overall majority.

It's important to know the rules of the market you're betting on!

Philip_Thompson

Pulpstar said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

MikeSmithson said:

The Betfair Senate rules "Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market."

So they won't count Angus King or Bernie Sanders towards a DEM majority?! That's insane!

I noted this mismatch between Betfair rules and media narrative/de-facto position of the senate a few threads back - here is a repost

Pulpstar said:

There are some mismatches on price and narrative punters should be aware of in the Betfair and 538 markets:
Betfair requires 51 GOP senators for a GOP Maj, when effectively 50 senators would allow the reds to keep control (Depending on what side of the bed Murkowski, Flake and Collins get out of in the morning). Pence has the casting vote, but 50 is not good enough for GOP maj on Betfair.
The Democrats can effectively take control with 49 senators... as King and Sanders aren't going to vote through GOP legislation. However Betfair needs 51 - so Dem Betfair control of the senate would be an utterly appalling night for the GOP and according to 538 looks very unlikely at the moment.

Here are the Betfair prices and 'true' odds.

True price (Using 538 model); Betfair price
Republican Maj 1.55 64.6% 1.46 - 1.49
No overall Maj 3.2 31.3% 3.9 - 4.1
Democrat Maj 24.39 4.1% 11 - 14

Dem Maj = 47 or less GOP senators
NOM = 48, 49 or 50 GOP Senators
Rep Maj = 51+ GOP Senators

Albeit Flake is retiring so it doesn't matter what side of bed he get out of ...

EDIT: In before '47 or fewer'

CarlottaVance

Sean_F said:

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

Must be quite scary being a Judge, knowing your homework is going to be corrected, publicly, several times....

Pulpstar

AllyPally_Rob said:

@Pulpstar If you count the two independents who already caucus with the Dems that gets you to 51 I think.

For De-facto control, sure. For betting purposes (Betfair).. No.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

Yes, highly unlikely now. Especially according to Betfairs rules which would basically give the blue side 53 votes

If the Democrats did achieve a 13% lead over the Republicans in the House, they likely would gain the Senate as well. But CNN has regularly been giving 10%+ leads for the Democrats, in contrast to other generic polls showing more modest leads.

Currently the Senate is 51 GOP - 47 Dem - 2 Ind.

Betfair's rules require 51 Dems to pay out on Dem majority. This not only involves the hold of North Dakota, Cruz losing his seat and Tennessee going blue but also the gain of the Mississippi special seat.

Here is how it voted in 2014.

Mississippi's US senate election, 2014[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thad Cochran (incumbent) 378,481 59.90
Democratic Travis Childers 239,439 37.89
Reform Shawn O'Hara 13,938 2.21

Even a 13% lead may not be enough to gain that.

It's not impossible, but the Dem 51st senate seat is a massive and unlikely task.

If the Dems manage to hold North Dakota and they Gain Nevada and Arizona I think that gets them to 51.

If they lose ND they need to pick up either Tennessee or Texas to compensate.

Hmm yes sorry missed out Nevada and Arizona in my analysis - but I think we're both wrong..

Gain Nevada, Arizona is +2...

So they need another 2. That's gaining Texas, Tennessee and holding North Dakota.

So MS-special is not needed, but basically the DEMs need to run perfectly in NV, AZ, TX, TN and ND.

Yes, that's correct. The Dems don't need the Missisipi special election to get to 51+2:

They need all the toss-ups plus the two 'Lean GOP' in this RCP map:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

Don't forget FL, which is by no means a shoo-in.

Incidentally, the results in FL may be affected by Hurricane Michael, a further complication in the mix.

I don't like the look of MT as a toss up, mind you I note New Jersey was also a toss up for a while - a state which seems a stretch for the GOP.

Sean_F

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

Must be quite scary being a Judge, knowing your homework is going to be corrected, publicly, several times....

The Supreme Court has recently proved itself very willing to overturn judgements of lower courts (eg Heather Ilott v Blue Cross).

Roger

OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

They must be counting the days.....

Big_G_NorthWales

Roger said:

OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

They must be counting the days.....

You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers

AllyPally_Rob

Pulpstar said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

@Pulpstar If you count the two independents who already caucus with the Dems that gets you to 51 I think.

For De-facto control, sure. For betting purposes (Betfair).. No.

Sorry yes you are right, I didn't realise you were basing your calculations around the Betfair rules.

I'd say the chances of the Dems getting to 51 without King and Sanders counted are somewhat less than 1%.

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1049979372332048384

Cyclefree

Roger said:

OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

They must be counting the days.....

And the money they're making from them all. I bet those baguettes don't come cheap.

Still, we feel your pain, Roger, we really do.

felix

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

They must be counting the days.....

You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers

And of course fat Frenchies are unknown - Roger says so.

Roger

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

They must be counting the days.....

You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers

I would be surprised if they differentiate between the Trumpy Americans and the Brexiteers. Birds of a feather

Philip_Thompson

Roger said:

OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

They must be counting the days.....

You really are an unpleasant person lately.

AndyJS

FPT:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

It seems like about 1 in 55 people being phoned are answering and giving a voting intention in Texas and Tennessee:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-txsen-2.html

That whole exercise has given insights into polling that are really useful. The incredibly low response rate, the differential response rate by age (1/140 of those under 29 responded), the distortions that this causes in the sample (too old, too white, too politically engaged as they say themselves) and their attempts to offset that. Its been fascinating.

Looks like Cruz is going to win fairly comfortably though.

It has been fascinating.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1049980934152437760

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1049981242471587840

rpjs

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

Yes, highly unlikely now. Especially according to Betfairs rules which would basically give the blue side 53 votes

If the Democrats did achieve a 13% lead over the Republicans in the House, they likely would gain the Senate as well. But CNN has regularly been giving 10%+ leads for the Democrats, in contrast to other generic polls showing more modest leads.

Currently the Senate is 51 GOP - 47 Dem - 2 Ind.

Betfair's rules require 51 Dems to pay out on Dem majority. This not only involves the hold of North Dakota, Cruz losing his seat and Tennessee going blue but also the gain of the Mississippi special seat.

Here is how it voted in 2014.

Mississippi's US senate election, 2014[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thad Cochran (incumbent) 378,481 59.90
Democratic Travis Childers 239,439 37.89
Reform Shawn O'Hara 13,938 2.21

Even a 13% lead may not be enough to gain that.

It's not impossible, but the Dem 51st senate seat is a massive and unlikely task.

If the Dems manage to hold North Dakota and they Gain Nevada and Arizona I think that gets them to 51.

If they lose ND they need to pick up either Tennessee or Texas to compensate.

Hmm yes sorry missed out Nevada and Arizona in my analysis - but I think we're both wrong..

Gain Nevada, Arizona is +2...

So they need another 2. That's gaining Texas, Tennessee and holding North Dakota.

So MS-special is not needed, but basically the DEMs need to run perfectly in NV, AZ, TX, TN and ND.

Yes, that's correct. The Dems don't need the Missisipi special election to get to 51+2:

They need all the toss-ups plus the two 'Lean GOP' in this RCP map:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

Don't forget FL, which is by no means a shoo-in.

Incidentally, the results in FL may be affected by Hurricane Michael, a further complication in the mix.

I don't like the look of MT as a toss up, mind you I note New Jersey was also a toss up for a while - a state which seems a stretch for the GOP.

That’s because the incumbent, Bob Menendez (D), was tried last year for corruption. It ended in a mistrial and the prosecution declined to re-try him, but the R contender has made a lot from it while campaigning. Menendez should still win as NJ does indeed lean very much D, and it’s a state where a lot of folks are “meh” to corrupt pols so long as they bring home the pork.

HYUFD

The CNN numbers confirm women are moving to the Democrats after the Kavanaugh hearing.

The GOP are still likely to hold the Senate though and it could be 2010 in reverse when the GOP took the House in Obama's first midterms but the Democrats held the Senate

Anazina

Anazina said:

megalomaniacs4u said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

You're right about the city boundaries though, how Clifton can be in Nottingham City and West Bridgford not is very odd. It also distorts Nottingham's stats by making the city appear more dangerous, poorer etc as most of Nottingham's more prosperous suburbs are outside the city boundary.

Q) Are nottinghams "prosperous surburbs" precisely so because they are out of reach of the city council? and would bringing them into the city control cause people to move further afield?

Well The Park is within the city boundary, so not really, no. Other cities like Leeds manage perfectly well with the prosperous suburbs within the city council area. What is so unique about Nottingham that its own suburbs are outside its jurisdiction?

Scrapheap_as_was

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1049980934152437760

She's getting a right kicking this week

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

You opened a thread just for yourself

You new here? ;-P

At the time it was just TSE posting to himself, it seemed witty to me at the time.

Anazina

felix said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

They must be counting the days.....

You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers

And of course fat Frenchies are unknown - Roger says so.

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/two-maps-and-one-graph-comparing-obesity-in-america-and-europe

Beverley_C

This is doing the rounds on FB. I do not know if it is on many men's FB feeds, but I have seen lots of women sharing it.

It might explain that gender gap. Scroll down until you get to the tweets then start reading (Kavanaugh & Trump turn up near the end of the tweets)

https://www.boredpanda.com/nut-kicking-analogy-brett-kavanaugh-case/

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

Must be quite scary being a Judge, knowing your homework is going to be corrected, publicly, several times....

They should be getting remedial education on this one, any fool knew the idiot had no claim against the bakery. "I am offended" gone stupid. Hopefully he gets to pay all costs personally.

malcolmg

TheScreamingEagles said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’ve been betting on laying the Dems to take the Senate.

Not going to change.

You opened a thread just for yourself

Is Mike’s thread.

I was uploading another thread on to the PB servers and noticed Mike had just published this thread.

Pure coincidence.

It was funny at the time. I thought anyway.
PS: Perhaps I am losing it

Beverley_C

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1049979372332048384

I listened to Sammy on R4 yesterday and I have to say he actually talked sense. I was shocked because when I last met him (years ago) he generally spouted nonsense.

His basic premise was that post EU-backstop-Brexit, Norn Iron's rules would be set by Brussels and no one in NI could vote for anyone in Brussels as we would have no MEPs and no PM in the Council.

CarlottaVance

Mrs May ending on Labour's plans costing £1 trillion....we may see that again....wonder how long it takes them to link it to the value of Private Pensions....

GarethoftheVale2

Anazina said:

Anazina said:

megalomaniacs4u said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

You're right about the city boundaries though, how Clifton can be in Nottingham City and West Bridgford not is very odd. It also distorts Nottingham's stats by making the city appear more dangerous, poorer etc as most of Nottingham's more prosperous suburbs are outside the city boundary.

Q) Are nottinghams "prosperous surburbs" precisely so because they are out of reach of the city council? and would bringing them into the city control cause people to move further afield?

Well The Park is within the city boundary, so not really, no. Other cities like Leeds manage perfectly well with the prosperous suburbs within the city council area. What is so unique about Nottingham that its own suburbs are outside its jurisdiction?

The Cons should support Arnold, Carlton and Beeston joining Nottingham (maybe less so Hucknall and W Bridgford) as it would make the residual Nottinghamshire much more favourable for them

Morris_Dancer

Mrs C, quite. It's nuts.

matt

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

They must be counting the days.....

And the money they're making from them all. I bet those baguettes don't come cheap.

Still, we feel your pain, Roger, we really do.

Neat bread based pun there. I hope it was intentional

CarlottaVance

So much for the Corbynite boycott:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1049984480113496065

logical_song

Beverley_C said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1049979372332048384

I listened to Sammy on R4 yesterday and I have to say he actually talked sense. I was shocked because when I last met him (years ago) he generally spouted nonsense.

His basic premise was that post EU-backstop-Brexit, Norn Iron's rules would be set by Brussels and no one in NI could vote for anyone in Brussels as we would have no MEPs and no PM in the Council.

Whatever you think about the DUP, they have been consistent and tend to stick to their word (I almost said guns). If TMay hopes to get some movement, ANY movement, as one might from ordinary politicians, she may not be lucky.

Beverley_C

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

Must be quite scary being a Judge, knowing your homework is going to be corrected, publicly, several times....

I am sure the pay and conditions are a great comfort in such circumstances

Scrapheap_as_was

Ken!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gallowgate

Ken Clarke doesn’t get his question properly answered. Obviously.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1049985123914051584

AlastairMeeks

Beverley_C said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

Must be quite scary being a Judge, knowing your homework is going to be corrected, publicly, several times....

I am sure the pay and conditions are a great comfort in such circumstances

Many judges take a massive pay cut when they take up the position.

Scrapheap_as_was

Gallowgate said:

Ken Clarke doesn’t get his question properly answered. Obviously.

Talking sense for moderates in both parties and bracketing his party's headbangers with those on the Lab front bench ,,,

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Gallowgate said:

Ken Clarke doesn’t get his question properly answered. Obviously.

Talking sense for moderates in both parties and bracketing his party's headbangers with those on the Lab front bench ,,,

I've been making that point for ages.

Brexiteers and Corbynites, two cheeks of the same arse.

PS - I hope you've recovered from the last thread, I bolded the last part of Alastair's piece just for you.

Stereotomy

The whole "end of austerity" thing isn't looking like such a good political tactic now

Scrapheap_as_was

blimey the chamber is half empty especially behind lab front bench

RochdalePioneers

Stereotomy said:

The whole "end of austerity" thing isn't looking like such a good political tactic now

Tories insist there hasn't been any austerity. record spending etc.

CarlottaVance

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Gallowgate said:

Ken Clarke doesn’t get his question properly answered. Obviously.

Talking sense for moderates in both parties and bracketing his party's headbangers with those on the Lab front bench ,,,

That was elegantly done.....the grin on Damien Green's face (sitting immediately behind Ken) as Ken proceeded grew broader & broader...

TheScreamingEagles

Rory for PM.

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1049988908493221888

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1049987570082418688

TOPPING

Just catching up on PMQs. Jezza won on penalties.

Polruan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Rory for PM.

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1049988908493221888

Is that a metaphor for giving the country more Brexit than it asked for?

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Gallowgate said:

Ken Clarke doesn’t get his question properly answered. Obviously.

Talking sense for moderates in both parties and bracketing his party's headbangers with those on the Lab front bench ,,,

I've been making that point for ages.

Brexiteers and Corbynites, two cheeks of the same arse.

PS - I hope you've recovered from the last thread, I bolded the last part of Alastair's piece just for you.

Yup re the arses.

Nope - worst late night thread ever.... my HBP pill dosage didn't cope well...

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

So much for the Corbynite boycott:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1049984480113496065

I highly doubt many of the cult bought the Guardian / Observer anyway....bit too right wing for them.

HYUFD

Beverley_C said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1049979372332048384

I listened to Sammy on R4 yesterday and I have to say he actually talked sense. I was shocked because when I last met him (years ago) he generally spouted nonsense.

His basic premise was that post EU-backstop-Brexit, Norn Iron's rules would be set by Brussels and no one in NI could vote for anyone in Brussels as we would have no MEPs and no PM in the Council.

The DUP now May has moved to a Customs Union for the whole UK cannot move the goalposts again and say they will not accept any regulatory alignment with the EU for NI at all.

Ken Clarke was right, May should stick to a Customs Union for the whole UK and use Labour and LD backbenchers votes to override Corbynites, the ERG and the DUP

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Gallowgate said:

Ken Clarke doesn’t get his question properly answered. Obviously.

Talking sense for moderates in both parties and bracketing his party's headbangers with those on the Lab front bench ,,,

I've been making that point for ages.

Brexiteers and Corbynites, two cheeks of the same arse.

PS - I hope you've recovered from the last thread, I bolded the last part of Alastair's piece just for you.

Yup re the arses.

Nope - worst late night thread ever.... my HBP pill dosage didn't cope well...

I imagine it was up there with the time I did a thread on tipping Sol Campbell as the Tory candidate for London Mayor.

Carolus_Rex

AlastairMeeks said:

Beverley_C said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

Must be quite scary being a Judge, knowing your homework is going to be corrected, publicly, several times....

I am sure the pay and conditions are a great comfort in such circumstances

Many judges take a massive pay cut when they take up the position.

Or rather they swap the pay for the pension...

CarlottaVance

Scrapheap_as_was said:

blimey the chamber is half empty especially behind lab front bench

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1049988567194394626

This seems new.....the government benches are reasonable (but far from full), opposition - about half full

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Gallowgate said:

Ken Clarke doesn’t get his question properly answered. Obviously.

Talking sense for moderates in both parties and bracketing his party's headbangers with those on the Lab front bench ,,,

I've been making that point for ages.

Brexiteers and Corbynites, two cheeks of the same arse.

PS - I hope you've recovered from the last thread, I bolded the last part of Alastair's piece just for you.

Yup re the arses.

Nope - worst late night thread ever.... my HBP pill dosage didn't cope well...

I imagine it was up there with the time I did a thread on tipping Sol Campbell as the Tory candidate for London Mayor.

Nurse!

Anazina

HYUFD said:

Beverley_C said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1049979372332048384

I listened to Sammy on R4 yesterday and I have to say he actually talked sense. I was shocked because when I last met him (years ago) he generally spouted nonsense.

His basic premise was that post EU-backstop-Brexit, Norn Iron's rules would be set by Brussels and no one in NI could vote for anyone in Brussels as we would have no MEPs and no PM in the Council.

The DUP now May has moved to a Customs Union for the whole UK cannot move the goalposts again and say they will not accept any regulatory alignment with the EU for NI at all.

Ken Clarke was right, May should stick to a Customs Union for the whole UK and use Labour and LD backbenchers votes to override Corbynites, the ERG and the DUP

Correct. Very succinctly put. You are in good form this past week!

Anazina

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Anazina said:

Anazina said:

megalomaniacs4u said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

You're right about the city boundaries though, how Clifton can be in Nottingham City and West Bridgford not is very odd. It also distorts Nottingham's stats by making the city appear more dangerous, poorer etc as most of Nottingham's more prosperous suburbs are outside the city boundary.

Q) Are nottinghams "prosperous surburbs" precisely so because they are out of reach of the city council? and would bringing them into the city control cause people to move further afield?

Well The Park is within the city boundary, so not really, no. Other cities like Leeds manage perfectly well with the prosperous suburbs within the city council area. What is so unique about Nottingham that its own suburbs are outside its jurisdiction?

The Cons should support Arnold, Carlton and Beeston joining Nottingham (maybe less so Hucknall and W Bridgford) as it would make the residual Nottinghamshire much more favourable for them

It is a shame that matters of sensible local organisation are seen through such a narrow party political prism. No wonder England's urban and regional administrations make no sense.

Beverley_C

AlastairMeeks said:

Beverley_C said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

Must be quite scary being a Judge, knowing your homework is going to be corrected, publicly, several times....

I am sure the pay and conditions are a great comfort in such circumstances

Many judges take a massive pay cut when they take up the position.

What? Down from "obscenely enormous" to "merely vast"?

Casino_Royale

Roger said:

OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

They must be counting the days.....

I take great pleasure in knowing you have nothing left in your armoury but personal insults.

FWIW, I suspect you wouldn’t say boo to a goose in person.

stodge

Big_G_NorthWales said:

You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers

I think it depends on the cruise line. P&O and Fred Olsen still carry a lot of British passengers but the likes of Celebrity and Royal Caribbean are much more favoured by the American market.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1049991138701131776

matt

Beverley_C said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Beverley_C said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

O/T Ashers Bakery, it looks like the Supreme Court adopted every argument made by Life in a Market Town, a barrister who used to post on this site.

Must be quite scary being a Judge, knowing your homework is going to be corrected, publicly, several times....

I am sure the pay and conditions are a great comfort in such circumstances

Many judges take a massive pay cut when they take up the position.

What? Down from "obscenely enormous" to "merely vast"?

Unlike most MPs, not very high conpared what they could earn through continuing in their preceding employment..

felix

Anazina said:

felix said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

They must be counting the days.....

You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers

And of course fat Frenchies are unknown - Roger says so.

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/two-maps-and-one-graph-comparing-obesity-in-america-and-europe

I think that should be for Roger but thank you for supporting my point.

CarlottaVance

This could get interesting:

https://news.sky.com/story/dup-prepared-to-vote-against-budget-if-brexit-red-lines-breached-11522745

MarqueeMark

felix said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

OT. Normally in Villefranche you might see one or two fattish people in a day. Today the narrow alleyways are impossible to navigate. An English cruise ship has arrived. How must this look to the svelte French and Italians who more regularly live in the area?

What do they make of these baguette munching 'Casino Royales' other than what they can see with their eyes (and it really is like looking at a different species) and what they hear on TV from our Brexiteer spokesmen?

They must be counting the days.....

You do know that English cruise ships, as you call them, are dominated with American passengers. Believe me I have been on many cruise ships and they always have a large number of North American passengers

And of course fat Frenchies are unknown - Roger says so.

The stats are skewed. Plenty of fat French men. But their women are neurotic, afraid to consume a calorie in case their husbands don't come back to them from their younger, thinner mistresses....

Dead easy, this stereotyping.

TheScreamingEagles

CarlottaVance said:

This could get interesting:

https://news.sky.com/story/dup-prepared-to-vote-against-budget-if-brexit-red-lines-breached-11522745

So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.

edmundintokyo

deleted

Pulpstar

CarlottaVance said:

This could get interesting:

https://news.sky.com/story/dup-prepared-to-vote-against-budget-if-brexit-red-lines-breached-11522745

Well that all but guarantees that fudge and pontification extends into November.

Anazina

edmundintokyo said:

CarlottaVance said:

This could get interesting:

https://news.sky.com/story/dup-prepared-to-vote-against-budget-if-brexit-red-lines-breached-11522745

Seems obvious they'd vote against it, their USP is being angry and saying no to things, and Brexit is a thing.

Indeed, the country appears to be under the control of a tiny cabal of hard-right wing Loyalist bigots. May should tell them to sod off and get her deal through on Labour votes if necessary.

HYUFD

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Beverley_C said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1049979372332048384

I listened to Sammy on R4 yesterday and I have to say he actually talked sense. I was shocked because when I last met him (years ago) he generally spouted nonsense.

His basic premise was that post EU-backstop-Brexit, Norn Iron's rules would be set by Brussels and no one in NI could vote for anyone in Brussels as we would have no MEPs and no PM in the Council.

The DUP now May has moved to a Customs Union for the whole UK cannot move the goalposts again and say they will not accept any regulatory alignment with the EU for NI at all.

Ken Clarke was right, May should stick to a Customs Union for the whole UK and use Labour and LD backbenchers votes to override Corbynites, the ERG and the DUP

Correct. Very succinctly put. You are in good form this past week!

Thank you

Foxy

CarlottaVance said:

So much for the Corbynite boycott:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1049984480113496065

As we all should know by now: There ain't such a thing as bad publicity!

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

This could get interesting:

https://news.sky.com/story/dup-prepared-to-vote-against-budget-if-brexit-red-lines-breached-11522745

So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.

On present polls the LDs and SNP will decide if Corbyn becomes PM regardless of the DUP

Philip_Thompson

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

This could get interesting:

https://news.sky.com/story/dup-prepared-to-vote-against-budget-if-brexit-red-lines-breached-11522745

So the DUP are effectively prepared to make Corbyn PM, you cannot trust the bog-trotters, they made Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister, we need to expel Northern Ireland from the Union before they make Corbyn PM.

From their perspective why shouldn't they make Corbyn PM if May is prepared to sell them down the river and put them in a purdah where they have to follow EU rules but have no say in what those rules are?