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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Prize Competition: Your chance to win the definitive work on what happened at GE2017
I’ve just got my copy of the Phil Cowley/Denis Kavanagh study of the 2017 general election. As well as an excellent narrative on what was going on there’s also a detailed statistical analysis of the results from John Curtice and others.
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49.01
47.42
47.65
46.31
47.30
46.46
Thank you all.
48.16 for Beto.
Close but no cigar.
He doesn't seem to be troubling the scorers much.
Differential turnout in favour of the Democrats? Third-party squeeze in a tight race?
It's a bold consensus at present.
48.52
41.27
I think he's being overhyped because it's an interesting story.
Main takeaway: no one likes Cruz, not even republicans.
https://www.nealdikeman.com
42.30 as there must be some point in the universe where a rolling average of polls = final result
51.21, and thanks for running this competition.
Good morning, everyone.
Sci-fi review: the new Doctor's hair was lovely, but Nyssa-Vex's was even more splendid.
Anyone backing Haddad for Brazil's presidency?
That's closer, but I would personally be surprised to see O'Rourke get 40%. Last time it was 40.6%, with a well known and popular candidate. Admittedly that still showed consistent improvement over the decades. But I wonder if polls are overstating the Dems because, as with Trump or Corbyn, people in the right places are embarrassed to admit they're voting for Cruz.
I'm going with 39.50%.
47.56
40.89
44.69
43.91
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/08/new-zealands-degrading-abortion-ban-breaches-human-rights-say-activists
I had no idea New Zealand's abortion laws were so tough. What are the historic reasons for this? Religious, or something else? Seems anomalous in a country which boasts of its progressive politics as regards representation of women?
If I was American I would find the Libertarian viewpoint interesting but ultimately frivolous because it is a wasted vote.
45.46
Which is fairly boring as predictions go, I guess.
43.08
Everywhere else the margin's well over 3,000 votes, usually nearer 20,000, and in two seats they're in third.
Have a good morning.
51.01
46.46
Betting PostF1: backed Bottas, each way, to win in the US. He's 8.5 (9 with boost), a third the odds top 2.
He's finished second in the last two races. He's qualified first and second in the last two races. I think Vettel's shorter odds reflect name recognition and following rather than his actual chances. The Mercedes seems faster both in qualifying and race trim, and the German has been making increasing numbers of mistakes, as has Ferrari's strategy team.
O'Rourke 45%
Tennessee is also more marginal than Texas on current polls and is the seat the Democrats really need for a majority. If 'O Rourke wins the Democrats have likely already won the Senate
New Zealand's abortion rate (number of abortions per 1000 women aged 15–44 years) is slightly below Australia's (22.2), and the United States (21.3), but above Japan's (13.8), Finland and Scotland's (both 10.9) and many European countries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_New_Zealand
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45780889
47.35
I think Beto is showing Dems how they need to approach the South; don't apologise for believing in what you believe in, and don't try and be mushy mouthed about it, but also be really grateful that your opponent is crap.
Texas is weird enough (for instance you cannot register people to vote statewide in Texas, every county needs a different permit to allow you to register people) that turnout differential and Cruz's general unlikeability could mean Beto wins. Indeed, I'm surprised the Libertarian isn't polling higher, as I would imagine a few anti-Trump / anti-Cruz GOP types opting for him instead.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/newsbeat-45781929
45.83
49.02
Looking at the Brazil election results it looks like Bolsanaro won every district in Rio de Janeiro state:
https://politica.estadao.com.br/eleicoes/2018/cobertura-votacao-apuracao/primeiro-turno/presidente
In both cases the anecdotage is that kids don't really identify with UK political parties in a way that I had started to do at his age. There is a very strong divide along the lines of embracing or rejecting self-identity politics (someone referenced a Liddle article over the weekend): the gamer boys reject, and the gender divide seems pretty strong as pretty much everyone is a gamer boy post Overwatch, but it is played out through the reference points of Trump-Clinton. I don't remember a time when Americanisation was not an issue for the olds, but YouTube is my bug bear. My son is anti-identitarian and we've certainly has lots of discussions to try and nuance some of the borderline alt right and vehemently anti feminist stuff he brings up.
As to the Russian bots - he has a username which hints to dogs, and has seen a lot of attempts to befriend him with puppy images (I know, I know!), but really their US centred propoganda has thoroughly salted any more UK targeted pro Corbyn messages they might try with UK kids. My son is quite familiar with aspects of Russian culture, be it angry Gopniks (Russian chavs) on his game servers and memes, and numerous Eastern European friends with, ahem, varied views on Russia.
I'll not post much more than this today, but as a final comment, the 18-24s at the next election don't seem on course to behave in the way that you might think. Is there a good polling series on the political attitudes of those coming into the voter base that might be picking up any of this on an objective basis, with enough history to correlate with what those generations then do post 18? There's a thread header in this for someone.
Now a spot of reinforcing negative stereotypes: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45751016
"Panorama: Can violent men ever change?
Every year more than a million people are victims of domestic abuse in the UK. Often the focus is on helping the victim find safety - but what of the abusers? Should they be given help? And can they change?"
"Rachel is now an advocate for survivors and hears from lots of women seeking support."
Male victims of domestic violence are often estimated at around 30-40%. One Canadian study (an outlier, to be fair) had them in the majority. The idea that perpetrators of domestic violence = men is one of those little sexist tropes deemed acceptable because it's misandry, which has brilliantly led to male refuges being horrendously underfunded.
43.39
(I had given a bit of help to her in terms of what Chequers meant, what Canada style agreement meant and what Norway style EFTA meant).
If we take say Trump and Nutall to take maybe the closest examples (although they are not actual far right demagogues) white men were (or are) some of their strongest supporters.
Although there is a rather obvious reason that would be in regards to the UK or the US or some other Western countries with White majorities rather than a blanket approach to the entire world. A leader building his popularity on attacking minorities (assuming one of those minorities is White) in a country mostly populated by Black people is obviously not going to be backed by White people, much the opposite.
If your candidate was third, or second by a long way, or even won by more than a few votes, you may as well have drawn a willy on your ballot paper.
You either voted for someone with no chance, or someone with no chance, or just piled up another vote where your candidate won anyway.