She didn't have a choice. Well, she did - she could have resigned but given that she didn't resign, she wasn't strong enough to replace Hammond immediately post-GE. Indeed, by all accounts, she was planning to replace him so while she can be blamed for a lot, I don't think you can lay the whole of the blame for that one at her door. You can of course blame her for the election result and for not then quitting.
She won't be long gone by next summer - there's too much going on to take two months out on a leadership election - but I do think she'll go during next summer.
The members will definitely need to have a say next time. That means the windows for May's departure are realistically Summer 2019. Summer 2020, Summer 2021 or after the next election.
While she could go in Summer 2019, I think it would look quite harsh, particularly if she has managed to get a deal with Brussels. Also there would be pressure on a new leader to have an early election.
I wonder if it would be better for the Cons to change in 2020. That would allow the new leader 2 years to make a mark but not so long as to become stale.
I also think the Cons should aim to have the parliament go to 2022 as it allows more time for Lab splits to develop. There would also be the issue of the Corbyn succession
I agree with your first two paragraphs but I'm afraid some sensible and purposeful ruthlessness is necessary.
to December 2020, so a change early in that next phase would be less disruptive than towards the end of it.
However, to return to domestics, what's the big offer on housing? A bit more tax on foreign ownership. It's tinkering at the edges. There needs to be an offer on the scale of right-to-buy, which will heavily tilt the housing market back towards owner-occupiers and away from private landlords (I accept that taking on private landlords will be politically harder than taking on local councils but it needs to be done anyway if the 'party of aspiration' tag is to be meaningful). It's big, bold offers which are needed and she won't do it.
On housing, there's not much to be done but to continue to encourage building, and wait for rising wages to improve affordability. Introducing things like rent controls would benefit anyone who was currently renting, but kill off the market for anyone wanting to rent in the future.
James Duddridge has submitted a letter of no confidence in Theresa May.
The MP for Rochford and Southend East says in his letter to Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee: “I am normally a loyalist, served in the Whip’s Office for nearly five years and have never voted against the government.
“However, there comes a point that blind loyalty is not the right way forward.
“We need a strong leader, someone who believes in Brexit and someone to deliver what the electorate voted for.
“The Prime Minister seems incapable of doing this.
“I have not met a single MP who thinks she will lead us into another election after the last disastrous snap election.
“We will fail to cut through on issues other than Brexit until we are beyond Brexit, yet the can is kicked further and further down the road.
“I write this with heavy heart, however we now need a proper leadership election and to move on.”
Why do this the morning of the speech and not after she's given it? Surely her speech will move the agenda on unless another letter comes out? Whereas if done after the speech this would come across more as a reaction.
Insread backstabbing her this morning looks like a cowards way of doing it to me. Not quite Mark Reckless but not far off.
Because his immediate prime interest is in disrupting May's speech.
Stupid stunt.
They are pathetic. Hope TM takes them on and wins a vnoc easily
If she did win comfortably, she'd probably serve through to 2022 which is also a sub-optimal outcome.
Fine tuning needed. What is the best date for her departure? Before or after 29/3/2019?
After. Ideally, something like 1 September 2019, following a summer leadership contest.
After. Ideally, something like 1 September 2019, following a summer leadership contest.
May can step down as Tory leader in the Spring, but remain on as Prime Minister pending the Tories having the whole summer to try to figure out how to stop Boris
That said, there's all that stuff about a sinner that repenteth. She might have acknowledged, however, that she hath much to repent about in this area.
The issue with this compromise malarkey is the same as it always has been.
The absolute most May can offer without blowing apart whatever remains of her fragile coalition comes nowhere close the absolute least the EU27 is prepared to accept.
And then when she brings it to Parliament it will die in flames anyway.
Since Labour's share of the vote is the highest it's been for a very long time, it suggests that this group of people (Labour voters who feel politically homeless under Corbyn but wouldn't rather lop off a limb and vote for the fucking Tories) is a pretty small group of people at the moment
It's about what I'd expect from May. A stupid, ill-thought out pitch for a largely illusory demographic.
Well quite. She spent two years seeking to grind the faces of the defeated into the dust. Finally, when she runs out of red meat to throw at the unhinged, she realises that was not a particularly smart strategy.
Well quite. She spent two years seeking to grind the faces of the defeated into the dust. Finally, when she runs out of red meat to throw at the unhinged, she realises that was not a particularly smart strategy.
I doubt the Kavanaugh hearings will make the slightest difference to the midterm election results, they make for good theatre but that is all, Democrats will be turning out to vote against Trump and the GOP Congress, Republicans if they bother to vote to support the President
Well quite. She spent two years seeking to grind the faces of the defeated into the dust. Finally, when she runs out of red meat to throw at the unhinged, she realises that was not a particularly smart strategy.
Agreed. Really interested to see where she goes on Brexit today, given the message of unity so far. This is the best I've heard her in ages so far (mostly because she hasn't mentioned Brexit!)
Since Labour's share of the vote is the highest it's been for a very long time, it suggests that this group of people (Labour voters who feel politically homeless under Corbyn but wouldn't rather lop off a limb and vote for the fucking Tories) is a pretty small group of people at the moment
It's about what I'd expect from May. A stupid, ill-thought out pitch for a largely illusory demographic.
Yet she's PM and you're an attention seeking internet troll. Life's a bummer sometimes.
Well quite. She spent two years seeking to grind the faces of the defeated into the dust. Finally, when she runs out of red meat to throw at the unhinged, she realises that was not a particularly smart strategy.
I doubt the Kavanaugh hearings will make the slightest difference to the midterm election results, they make for good theatre but that is all, Democrats will be turning out to vote against Trump and the GOP Congress, Republicans if they bother to vote to support the President
There are at least two known unknowns. First is whether Kavanaugh has a differential impact on women voters; second is whether Never-Trump Republicans will turn out for local races.
She's a moderate centerist, and thats out of favour in both main parties,
Because it's out of favour with the voters.
Voters who wanted to Leave despite all the warnings of apocalypse actually voted for radical change.
They didn't want/expect that absolutely nothing would change and "centrist" Theresa May would sell them down the river.
Most Leavers would rather No Deal than too much compromise with the EU but about 60% of the electorate would rather Norway, Canada even Remain than No Deal Brexit
Well quite. She spent two years seeking to grind the faces of the defeated into the dust. Finally, when she runs out of red meat to throw at the unhinged, she realises that was not a particularly smart strategy.
That is her basic problem. A large part of the audience she is now trying to talk to have been treated with her by contempt until now and her actions continue to alienate them. Why should they believe a word that she says?
Since Labour's share of the vote is the highest it's been for a very long time, it suggests that this group of people (Labour voters who feel politically homeless under Corbyn but wouldn't rather lop off a limb and vote for the fucking Tories) is a pretty small group of people at the moment
It's about what I'd expect from May. A stupid, ill-thought out pitch for a largely illusory demographic.
Yet she's PM and you're an attention seeking internet troll. Life's a bummer sometimes.
I doubt the Kavanaugh hearings will make the slightest difference to the midterm election results, they make for good theatre but that is all, Democrats will be turning out to vote against Trump and the GOP Congress, Republicans if they bother to vote to support the President
There are at least two known unknowns. First is whether Kavanaugh has a differential impact on women voters; second is whether Never-Trump Republicans will turn out for local races.
Dealing with each in turn:-
1. Probably no more than already exists.
2. Never-Trump Republicans are about as numerous as unicorns.
I would like to switch off those tweets the BBC shows us on the side.
You can do this with a browser extension called Stylish if you're reasonably tech-savvy. It would be nice if someone were to create a "No Gobshites" extension that excised all of this automatically but hey.
Well quite. She spent two years seeking to grind the faces of the defeated into the dust. Finally, when she runs out of red meat to throw at the unhinged, she realises that was not a particularly smart strategy.
That is her basic problem. A large part of the audience she is now trying to talk to have been treated with her by contempt until now and her actions continue to alienate them. Why should they believe a word that she says?
She is actively seeking to take opportunities away from British business and British citizens.
My reading is that if Kavanaugh is not confirmed that will fire up Republicans in the elections while it will be the Democrats who’ll be fired up if it goes the other way.
I think either way will fire up the Democrats. Trump's glaring misogyny, and the Republican Congress getting fully on board with it, is not going to be quickly forgotten whether Kavanaugh is on the bench or not.
She's totally lost me on Brexit, as usual. It was going so well. She needs to appeal to those calling for the People's Vote - that her Brexit will work for them. Mocking them plays well in the hall but terribly in the country.
"We had a people's vote and the people voted to leave" "A second referendum will be a politicians' vote" "Not for the few, not even for the many, but for everyone who works hard"
Two or three bits of policy and no coughing disaster and this could be a good speech.
My reading is that if Kavanaugh is not confirmed that will fire up Republicans in the elections while it will be the Democrats who’ll be fired up if it goes the other way.
I think either way will fire up the Democrats. Trump's glaring misogyny, and the Republican Congress getting fully on board with it, is not going to be quickly forgotten whether Kavanaugh is on the bench or not.
Indeed. And it is how Independents see it that will swing it anyway.
She's totally lost me on Brexit, as usual. It was going so well. She needs to appeal to those calling for the People's Vote - that her Brexit will work for them. Mocking them plays well in the hall but terribly in the country.
Shame.
Yeah it is a bit "citizens of nowhere". How are all the people who want a second referendum supposed to feel when she tells them they don't count as people?
Comments
May is for determination, determination, determination.
She's selling Brexit down the river now so give her credit for that...
Not subtle about Boris and co. She's on the money about the need to compromise, however much that word makes some quarters squeal.
She's a moderate centerist, and thats out of favour in both main parties,
The absolute most May can offer without blowing apart whatever remains of her fragile coalition comes nowhere close the absolute least the EU27 is prepared to accept.
And then when she brings it to Parliament it will die in flames anyway.
These truths we hold to be self-evident.
Voters who wanted to Leave despite all the warnings of apocalypse actually voted for radical change.
They didn't want/expect that absolutely nothing would change and "centrist" Theresa May would sell them down the river.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gin-l4LDdXQ
It's about what I'd expect from May. A stupid, ill-thought out pitch for a largely illusory demographic.
No deal is better than a bad dealhttps://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/1047447401877913600
About time..
1. Probably no more than already exists.
2. Never-Trump Republicans are about as numerous as unicorns.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/massachusetts-playbook/2018/10/03/warrens-ground-game-angry-and-unafraid-to-show-it-trump-bump-for-retirees-320319
I don't think she'll get it, but she will almost certainly be among the frontrunners if she commits.
Arf the irony.
Bit policy light so far.
Ans: YES. Just clapping the fact that we will soon take our seat at a supranational trade organisation.
I think either way will fire up the Democrats.
Trump's glaring misogyny, and the Republican Congress getting fully on board with it, is not going to be quickly forgotten whether Kavanaugh is on the bench or not.
Where is the centre re Brexit, BINO?
Shame.
"We had a people's vote and the people voted to leave"
"A second referendum will be a politicians' vote"
"Not for the few, not even for the many, but for everyone who works hard"
Two or three bits of policy and no coughing disaster and this could be a good speech.