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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Housing policy could decide

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at recent polling by Matt on behalf of Shelter and ask ‘what’s going on in the marginals’ and ‘How important is housing politically?’
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Galileo news:
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1047029149221699584
Edited extra bit: I'd want to consult a map, but I'm not necessarily sure I buy Williamson's argument, to be honest.
Probably for the same reason that NASA has ground stations for space comms around the world, including famously in Australia.
Mr. Jessop, perhaps.
Would you pass up the chance of commenting First?
No deal Brexit pretty much invalidates 99% of what Leavers of all persuasions told us would be the case in 2016 and any residual legitimacy their prospectusses had would be shot.
As an aside, viewers may recall the last time they tried changing qualifying. Everybody said it was stupid. And it turned out to be very stupid. I'm hopeful they won't be quite so delinquent again, but we'll see.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1047100671579906049
In the last two days, Hunt, Javid and Boris have all underwhelmed
Looks as if TM is going to continue for quite some time
now its a rare example but a not totally unheard of issue...
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/former-tory-cabinet-minister-lord-willetts-backs-second-brexit-referendum-a3951621.html
The detail is this. In YouGov's poll, of those who voted Leave, only 20% believe that Corbyn backs Leave, compared to 51% who believe he backs Remain. That's a net balance of 31% of Leavers who consider he takes the opposite view to theirs. Of those who voted Remain, 40% believe he backs Remain compared to 27% who believe he backs Leave. A net balance of 13% of Remains who consider he takes the same view to theirs. Do the same for May and this is what you get: For Remainers 28% net think that May backs their view, and for Leavers 23% net think that May doesn't back their view.
Overall, for Corbyn, people are more likely to think that he disagrees with their view on Brexit by a margin of around 19% (*). Overall for May, people are more likely to think that she agrees with their view on Brexit by a margin about 4% (*).
[* Note: Weighting slightly to take account of the fact that the number of 2016 leavers in the sample is slightly greater than the number of 2016 remainers.]
Also it is not certain who would win
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45722675
Maybe titled ‘People more distrustful of Corbyn than May on Beexit’
https://news.sky.com/story/dup-demands-theresa-may-comes-clean-over-reported-plan-to-create-border-in-irish-sea-11515343
All three positioning systems (the US's GPS, China's BeiDou and Russia's Glonass) work with satellites that broadcast the time. This means that if you look at the differences in time of signals recieved you can triangulate your position.
This does not require ground stations.
However, it is common to have A-GPS, or assisted GPS, type systems where - in addition to the satellites - there are ground stations that broadcast the time too. This enables a greater level of accuracy than just using the satellites alone. The more signals you can triangulate off, the more detail you have. Furthermore, it adds redundancy. Satellites have problems that cannot be easily fixed ground stations do not.
If Gallileo lost Diego Garcia, the Falklands and the other place, then it would degrade the accuracy and resiliency of the system. However, it is not like these are the only places where you can put ground stations - its simply that the middle of the sea is where there are fewest options.
In the Indian Ocean, there are a number of alternatives (whether Reunion or the Maldives or any number of alternatives), so the loss of Diego Garcia is probably no big deal. Likewise, in the Pacific, there are a lot of options. The South Atlantic is probably the place where there would be the biggest impact - but, again, there's no reason why you couldn't do Southern Chile or Argentina.
It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.
But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.
House price inflation is only a good thing for people who have a house to sell and are down sizing.
For people trying to buy a house for the first time or to upsize from their existing house, increased prices make it harder.
Colour me unsurprised...
Next one to back another referendum will be bloody Letwin!
"On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Navigation/Service_interruption_for_Galileo_system_upgrade
Does look like a bit of a gap wrt the Falklands though - don't think there are any French rocks down there.
Lock Her Up.
So, we need to negotiate bilateral corporate tax treaties with the EU-27 during a transition period, for example, and to ensure that (as much as possible) existing EU trading arrangements are replicated.
Even if the ERG and DUP oppose it I think enough Labour and LD backbenchers could support it to get the transition period
Dont think May can survive one as leader of Tories though
Getting home ownership climbing again really should be a priority for the government.
They're queuing up to eulogize Boris.
A deckhead is a 'ceiling' in a ship. Not quite as amusing as futtocks (type of planks).
Anyway, I must be off.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1047159744593584134
Boris's Brexit Bollix
Tories always go for a posh boy with no attention to detail. It is in the genes for them to tug their forelocks to such.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi abuse blamed on Russian trolls and 'political agendas'.
Report finds half of negative comments aimed at Rian Johnson’s movie came from Twitter bots or trolls, indicating fan backlash was overstated.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/oct/02/star-wars-the-last-jedi-rian-johnson-abuse-politically-motivated-russian-trolls
https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1047029653779697671?s=19
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/former-tory-cabinet-minister-lord-willetts-backs-second-brexit-referendum-a3951621.html
I can't even pronounce 'Khrushchyevka' properly.
Somebody who speaks French, now, comes under automatic suspicion of treason...