48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
It was fully on show yesterday. A country in serious decline and a threat to economic stability
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
Polling shows how stark the divide is. Democrats overwhelmingly believe the allegations and Republicans overwhelmingly disbelieve them - and in reality, neither side really cares if they're true or not.
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
It was fully on show yesterday. A country in serious decline and a threat to economic stability
I genuinely do not see how it holds together. I was at a conference in Sweden earlier this week and it was amazing how everyone took the US's decline for granted - it is putting up walls and driving the world away. It really isn't a country we should be tying ourselves to.
Incidentally, Thucydides' history of the Peloponnesian War (or Donald Kagan's single volume modern history thereof) is quite interesting because it has some similar factionalism within cities, whereby moderation is viewed as cowardice and stabbing people in the back 'for the cause' is wildly praised.
European markets tanking. Something to do with risky Italian banks
And Norway's government in crisis. Seems to be the norm these days
Oddly enough, the CAC, DAX and MiB have all rallied off their mid-afternoon lows as soon as you said the markets were "tanking".
Hmm....
Not much change since I last looked. Italian assets being hammered - Bloomberg commentator saying there will be an orderly or disorderly break up of the eurozone or a constant eurozone crisis. Even saying Italy may just leave the eurozone
Hey, Bloomberg has me on to comment from time-to-time, so you shouldn't take commentators too seriously
The issue is that the Italian government (which, by the way has the worst demographics in Western Europe) has targeted a budget deficit above what is allowed under the Growth & Stability Pact, i.e. 2.4% of GDP. (And note, Italian governments have a tendency to be optimistic.)
This means that Italian government bond yields have shot out (5 years have increased 32 basis points that 2.23%), as investors worry that either:
a) the ECB will cease support for Italian government debt or b) Italy will leave the Eurozone
Bond yields are still pretty low by historic standards, so right now (a) looks the dominant concern.
Now, rising Italian bond yields mean that the cost of funding for Italian banks increases, and makes them less profitable. (Which, by the way increases the likelihood they will need a bailout, which further stuffs Italian government finances.)
There are two possible outcomes from here. First is the Eurofudge, where Italy agrees to reduce its planned deficit to (say) 2.2%, and the ECB supports it, and everyone claims victory. Second is where neither the Italian government nor the ECB wants to compromise. The ECB stops buying Italian government bonds, and then yields shoot out. This creates a cycle where banks can't fund themselves, the government can't borrow, and - potentially - Italy leave the Eurozone in a rapid and disorganised manner.
Right now, the first option still looks the most likely. But I suspect the markets are mispricing the tail risk.
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
It was fully on show yesterday. A country in serious decline and a threat to economic stability
I genuinely do not see how it holds together. I was at a conference in Sweden earlier this week and it was amazing how everyone took the US's decline for granted - it is putting up walls and driving the world away. It really isn't a country we should be tying ourselves to.
Unlike an economic block that is currently quite happy to garrotte us in order to warn others of the danger of leaving. Naive people thought of the other EU member states as our friends, I just saw them as our competitors. Now I see them as enemies.
European markets tanking. Something to do with risky Italian banks
And Norway's government in crisis. Seems to be the norm these days
Oddly enough, the CAC, DAX and MiB have all rallied off their mid-afternoon lows as soon as you said the markets were "tanking".
Hmm....
Not much change since I last looked. Italian assets being hammered - Bloomberg commentator saying there will be an orderly or disorderly break up of the eurozone or a constant eurozone crisis. Even saying Italy may just leave the eurozone
Hey, Bloomberg has me on to comment from time-to-time, so you shouldn't take commentators too seriously
The issue is that the Italian government (which, by the way has the worst demographics in Western Europe) has targeted a budget deficit above what is allowed under the Growth & Stability Pact, i.e. 2.4% of GDP. (And note, Italian governments have a tendency to be optimistic.)
This means that Italian government bond yields have shot out (5 years have increased 32 basis points that 2.23%), as investors worry that either:
a) the ECB will cease support for Italian government debt or b) Italy will leave the Eurozone
Bond yields are still pretty low by historic standards, so right now (a) looks the dominant concern.
Now, rising Italian bond yields mean that the cost of funding for Italian banks increases, and makes them less profitable. (Which, by the way increases the likelihood they will need a bailout, which further stuffs Italian government finances.)
There are two possible outcomes from here. First is the Eurofudge, where Italy agrees to reduce its planned deficit to (say) 2.2%, and the ECB supports it, and everyone claims victory. Second is where neither the Italian government nor the ECB wants to compromise. The ECB stops buying Italian government bonds, and then yields shoot out. This creates a cycle where banks can't fund themselves, the government can't borrow, and - potentially - Italy leave the Eurozone in a rapid and disorganised manner.
Right now, the first option still looks the most likely. But I suspect the markets are mispricing the tail risk.
I really appreciate your insight which is very interesting.
All my family love Italy from the first time I drove them from North Wales to Venice in the early 1980's with our three children to last year when we all went to Cortona (10 of us) and further cruises during this last year. The Italians are fabulous with families and children, generous and just great to be with, apart from their driving.
I really hope Italy gets out of it's troubles, the people deserve it
Incidentally, Thucydides' history of the Peloponnesian War (or Donald Kagan's single volume modern history thereof) is quite interesting because it has some similar factionalism within cities, whereby moderation is viewed as cowardice and stabbing people in the back 'for the cause' is wildly praised.
ah Mr D?
I have recently got into a war game called Field of Glory II - battles range from circa 680BC to 500 AD.
I do hope this isn't to modern a period for you, but are you able to recommend any decent books about the wars and battles of that era?
European markets tanking. Something to do with risky Italian banks
And Norway's government in crisis. Seems to be the norm these days
Oddly enough, the CAC, DAX and MiB have all rallied off their mid-afternoon lows as soon as you said the markets were "tanking".
Hmm....
Not much change since I last looked. Italian assets being hammered - Bloomberg commentator saying there will be an orderly or disorderly break up of the eurozone or a constant eurozone crisis. Even saying Italy may just leave the eurozone
Hey, Bloomberg has me on to comment from time-to-time, so you shouldn't take commentators too seriously
TS
a) the ECB will cease support for Italian government debt or b) Italy will leave the Eurozone
Bond yields are still pretty low by historic standards, so right now (a) looks the IONconcern.P
Now, rising Italian bond yields mean that the cost of funding for Italian banks increases, and makes them less profitable. (Which, by the way increases the likelihood they will need a bailout, which further stuffs Italian government finances.)
There are two possible outcomes from here. First is the Eurofudge, where Italy agrees to reduce its planned deficit to (say) 2.2%, and the ECB supports it, and everyone claims victory. Second is where neither the Italian government nor the ECB wants to compromise. The ECB stops buying Italian government bonds, and then yields shoot out. This creates a cycle where banks can't fund themselves, the government can't borrow, and - potentially - Italy leave the Eurozone in a rapid and disorganised manner.
Right now, the first option still looks the most likely. But I suspect the markets are mispricing the tail risk.
I really appreciate your insight which is very interesting.
All my family love Italy from the first time I drove them from North Wales to Venice in the early 1980's with our three children to last year when we all went to Cortona (10 of us) and further cruises during this last year. The Italians are fabulous with families and children, generous and just great to be with, apart from their driving.
I really hope Italy gets out of it's troubles, the people deserve it
heartily agree, with one glaring exception in Venice (yes Avis I mean you) - we found them, warm, generous and helpful.
Mr. Floater, that's a pretty broad range of time (nearly coincides with the start and end of the Western Roman Empire).
The Punic Wars, particularly the Second, are well worth looking at. TA Dodge's biography/military history Hannibal is excellent (for ancient sources check out Livy and Polybius. Livy is more entertaining and complete, Polybius more neutral and accurate, though his account ends a bit early).
Dodge also wrote a similar book called Alexander. The Diadochi era (massive and long set of wars following Alexander's premature death) is fascinating but it's tricky finding a book that covers the whole thing. James Romm's[sp] Ghost on the Throne is very good, though.
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
It was fully on show yesterday. A country in serious decline and a threat to economic stability
I genuinely do not see how it holds together. I was at a conference in Sweden earlier this week and it was amazing how everyone took the US's decline for granted - it is putting up walls and driving the world away. It really isn't a country we should be tying ourselves to.
Listening this afternoon the US is descending into a sewer. The hard right republicans are disgusting
Mr. Floater, that's a pretty broad range of time (nearly coincides with the start and end of the Western Roman Empire).
The Punic Wars, particularly the Second, are well worth looking at. TA Dodge's biography/military history Hannibal is excellent (for ancient sources check out Livy and Polybius. Livy is more entertaining and complete, Polybius more neutral and accurate, though his account ends a bit early).
Dodge also wrote a similar book called Alexander. The Diadochi era (massive and long set of wars following Alexander's premature death) is fascinating but it's tricky finding a book that covers the whole thing. James Romm's[sp] Ghost on the Throne is very good, though.
Edited extra bit: obviously I'm using the broadest definition of 'empire' above, including the regal and republican periods.
In the Name of Rome by Adrian Goldsworthy, and The Pelopennesian War by Donald Kagan are pretty comprehensive, IMHO.
The problem with Alexander and the Successors is that there is no extant historian as close to the events in question as people like Caesar, Ammianus, Thucydides, Sallust, and Cicero were.
Mr. F, I did reference the Kagan book above (I realise there's a multi-volume series, but haven't read it myself).
Point of order: there was Hieronymous of Cardia. Sidenote: one of the reasons we know so little of Lysimachus, despite him being one of the longest-living and most successful of the Diadochi, was because when he founded his own city (a commonly done thing) he cannibalised the art and forcibly moved the people of Cardia to do it. Hieronymus was not amused.
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
Although it's unappealing to see a liar elected to the Supreme Court, it would help my betting if Kavanaugh were. I'm heavy on the Democrats for the mid-terms and I should think their prospects will be enhanced if K is waved through by a partisan Republican vote.
In fact I'm tempted to speculate that the Democrat strategy all along has been to sherpen the partisan divide so it becomes difficult for the Republicans to replace someone who has clearly become an electoral liabilty,
But then again are they that smart?
Btw, I've spent about six months of my life in the USA and been involved in three uncomfortable gun incidents. I think it's time I stopped going.
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
Although it's unappealing to see a liar elected to the Supreme Court, it would help my betting if Kavanaugh were. I'm heavy on the Democrats for the mid-terms and I should think their prospects will be enhanced if K is waved through by a partisan Republican vote.
In fact I'm tempted to speculate that the Democrat strategy all along has been to sherpen the partisan divide so it becomes difficult for the Republicans to replace someone who has clearly become an electoral liabilty,
But then again are they that smart?
Btw, I've spent about six months of my life in the USA and been involved in three uncomfortable gun incidents. I think it's time I stopped going.
Some have suggested it is the other way round and the Republicans have given up on elections and are concentrating on getting right wing judges appointed across the states.
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
Although it's unappealing to see a liar elected to the Supreme Court, it would help my betting if Kavanaugh were. I'm heavy on the Democrats for the mid-terms and I should think their prospects will be enhanced if K is waved through by a partisan Republican vote.
In fact I'm tempted to speculate that the Democrat strategy all along has been to sherpen the partisan divide so it becomes difficult for the Republicans to replace someone who has clearly become an electoral liabilty,
But then again are they that smart?
Btw, I've spent about six months of my life in the USA and been involved in three uncomfortable gun incidents. I think it's time I stopped going.
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
Btw, I've spent about six months of my life in the USA and been involved in three uncomfortable gun incidents. I think it's time I stopped going.
I have to ask, were more gun incidents occurring but they were not uncomfortable?
In all seriousness, that's a lot of incidents in a short period, were they all in the same area?
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
Although it's unappealing to see a liar elected to the Supreme Court, it would help my betting if Kavanaugh were. I'm heavy on the Democrats for the mid-terms and I should think their prospects will be enhanced if K is waved through by a partisan Republican vote.
In fact I'm tempted to speculate that the Democrat strategy all along has been to sherpen the partisan divide so it becomes difficult for the Republicans to replace someone who has clearly become an electoral liabilty,
But then again are they that smart?
Btw, I've spent about six months of my life in the USA and been involved in three uncomfortable gun incidents. I think it's time I stopped going.
Or stopped drawing your weapon .
Yes, well, one of these days somebody is going to fire back...
On the matter of the housing market this is an immigrant we don't need.The evil Japanese Knotweed which after a recent legal ruling can take £20k off the price.of your house.Moneywise has done some good reports and You Gov polling has revealed fewer in one in 5 can even recognise this highly dangerous plant.People it seems are more scared of a cannabis plant.
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
Btw, I've spent about six months of my life in the USA and been involved in three uncomfortable gun incidents. I think it's time I stopped going.
I have to ask, were more gun incidents occurring but they were not uncomfortable?
In all seriousness, that's a lot of incidents in a short period, were they all in the same area?
Two were when I was a student and working on a gas station in San Francisco. Hold-ups were regular occurrences and the incidents I witnessed were probably about par for the course. There are less risky jobs than working on a gas station though, so take that into account.
The other was more recent and in a way more disturbing. We were walking a friend's dog in Upper NY State and wandered accidentally onto somebody's land. It's the kind of thing that could happen anywhere, but you wouldn't expect the lady of the house to come out brandishing a rifle. She had about six kids in tow and it looked like a scene from the Beverley Hillbillies. We were about fifty yards away so she would have needed to be a good shot, but we didn't hang around to find out.
The other was more recent and in a way more disturbing. We were walking a friend's dog in Upper NY State and wandered accidentally onto somebody's land. It's the kind of thing that could happen anywhere, but you wouldn't expect the lady of the house to come out brandishing a rifle. She had about six kids in tow and it looked like a scene from the Beverley Hillbillies. We were about fifty yards away so she would have needed to be a good shot, but we didn't hang around to find out.
You were walking? No wonder you were regarded as a threat.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
Although it's unappealing to see a liar elected to the Supreme Court, it would help my betting if Kavanaugh were. I'm heavy on the Democrats for the mid-terms and I should think their prospects will be enhanced if K is waved through by a partisan Republican vote.
In fact I'm tempted to speculate that the Democrat strategy all along has been to sherpen the partisan divide so it becomes difficult for the Republicans to replace someone who has clearly become an electoral liabilty,
But then again are they that smart?
Btw, I've spent about six months of my life in the USA and been involved in three uncomfortable gun incidents. I think it's time I stopped going.
Some have suggested it is the other way round and the Republicans have given up on elections and are concentrating on getting right wing judges appointed across the states.
Sadly, both sides see it in their own best interest to keep perpetuating the culture wars, it’s unlikely to end well.
Good point about Republicans in the States, they’ve got hold of a lot of State Governors and Senates, seem determined to do all they can while they have that power.
I’d guess that if the GOP hold the US Senate in November, Trump will push for at least one more Judicial retirement, probably Samuel Alito who’s 68.
The Republican dream would be the forced retirement of one of the liberal justices due to ill health. Ruth Bader Ginsberg is 85 and Stephen Breyer is 80. Either of them being replaced with a Conservative would shape the court for the next two or three decades at least.
48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.
Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.
There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.
As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.
America is in a dark, dark place. And they have guns.
It was fully on show yesterday. A country in serious decline and a threat to economic stability
And the $US is the reserve currency for the rest of the world's countries. And if the Federal Reserve can admit, as it did recently to a House Committee, that they had "lost" 1 trillion dollars and they had no idea where it went, then it does become a little worrying.
There is a division on western nations between the likes of France and New Zealand which have birthrates around replacement level and the likes of Germany, Japan and Italy which have an average birthrates of barely 1 child per woman
Read through the whole of this morning's discussion without commenting - but striking how no one is defending No Deal any more. I understand why we've been talking tough on this throughout the negotiations, but there's a different dynamic in play now, as we get to the business end. Will any serious politician (i.e. not UKIP) be prepared to call for no-deal at this stage, the likes of Liam Fox and Moggy have made hints but not really been prepared to go there.
No Deal means economic collapse, chaos in Ireland and indyref2 in Scotland.
Parliament will not accept No Deal without EUref2 and in any case it would be highly likely No Deal both ends May's premiership and leads to another general election, maybe even by Christmas
Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):
Interesting, but even with all their 'fundamentals' adjustment, it isn't that close. It's not inconceivable, but if O'Rourke were to pull it off, it would be a surprise.
OTOH Bob Menendez in NJ is facing a tough challenger with constant ads on area TV about his recent run-in with the law, although he was acquitted through a mistrial and the feds deciding not to attempt a retrial. I think he'll win, because NJ isn't the sort of place that minds too much if you're a bit dodgy so long as you're bringing home the pork, but it might get a bit squeaky-bum for the Dems there.
New Jersey, Florida, West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana are all possible Republican pick-ups. It's quite possible the Dems flip one or two of Nevada, Arizona and Texas, but lose three of their existing states.
Latest polls have the Dems ahead in all bar North Dakota of the seats they are defending and ahead in GOP held Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee and close behind in Texas. They could well take the Senate if that stays the case
There is a division on western nations between the likes of France and New Zealand which have birthrates around replacement level and the likes of Germany, Japan and Italy which have an average birthrates of barely 1 child per woman
There is.
France has the best pro-natal policies in the world. Which I will be discussing in my next video.
There is a division on western nations between the likes of France and New Zealand which have birthrates around replacement level and the likes of Germany, Japan and Italy which have an average birthrates of barely 1 child per woman
There is.
France has the best pro-natal policies in the world. Which I will be discussing in my next video.
There is a division on western nations between the likes of France and New Zealand which have birthrates around replacement level and the likes of Germany, Japan and Italy which have an average birthrates of barely 1 child per woman
There is.
France has the best pro-natal policies in the world. Which I will be discussing in my next video.
All this judicial vetting procedure shows to me is that you have to take politicians out of the process entirely.
I know that isn't the US way - but there should be no executive or legislative involvement in the appointment of judges at any level.
It is the only way to stop this sort of car crash happening time after time.
The process is set in the US Constitution, so near impossible to ammend.
It does seem extraordinarily partisan, with little scrutiny seemingly applied to the more run of the mill issues of competence.
I know it is constitutional - but things have moved on since it was written. It is clearly not fit for purpose in the modern era.
The principle of division of powers was critical to the Constitutional authors, between states and federal governments, and between the 3 arms of federal government. Hence President nominating, and Legislature approving the SCOTUS appointments. It is a feature, not a bug though this nomination does perhaps raise the possibility of breaking that deadlock and creating Republican hegemony.
Totally, utterly borken. I'm starting to think that these are so bad that any state or country that uses them isn't really a democracy, but a sham. The rewards of hacking these machines is so great, and the hacking so easy, it *will* be happening.
There is a division on western nations between the likes of France and New Zealand which have birthrates around replacement level and the likes of Germany, Japan and Italy which have an average birthrates of barely 1 child per woman
There is.
France has the best pro-natal policies in the world. Which I will be discussing in my next video.
Is it the oysters?😉
Actually, my next but one video.
My next video is "The Trouble With Share Options".
It’s too early to say they’re falling apart, but Facebook are having one avoidable problem after another at the moment. To add to that, politicians have them on their radar in many countries including the USA.
There is a division on western nations between the likes of France and New Zealand which have birthrates around replacement level and the likes of Germany, Japan and Italy which have an average birthrates of barely 1 child per woman
There is.
France has the best pro-natal policies in the world. Which I will be discussing in my next video.
Is it the oysters?😉
Actually, my next but one video.
My next video is "The Trouble With Share Options".
Totally, utterly borken. I'm starting to think that these are so bad that any state or country that uses them isn't really a democracy, but a sham. The rewards of hacking these machines is so great, and the hacking so easy, it *will* be happening.
Voting is a really interesting technical problem. So much so, that almost every technologist without a vested interest will tell you that the best way to conduct elections is with pencils and paper and people counting votes manually. It’s about the only situation where I think everyone is in agreement that technology just doesn’t work, among those of us who get paid to implement technology!
It’s about the only situation where I think everyone is in agreement that technology just doesn’t work, among those of us who get paid to implement technology!
There is a division on western nations between the likes of France and New Zealand which have birthrates around replacement level and the likes of Germany, Japan and Italy which have an average birthrates of barely 1 child per woman
There is.
France has the best pro-natal policies in the world. Which I will be discussing in my next video.
Is it the oysters?😉
Actually, my next but one video.
My next video is "The Trouble With Share Options".
All this judicial vetting procedure shows to me is that you have to take politicians out of the process entirely.
I know that isn't the US way - but there should be no executive or legislative involvement in the appointment of judges at any level.
It is the only way to stop this sort of car crash happening time after time.
The process is set in the US Constitution, so near impossible to ammend.
It does seem extraordinarily partisan, with little scrutiny seemingly applied to the more run of the mill issues of competence.
I know it is constitutional - but things have moved on since it was written. It is clearly not fit for purpose in the modern era.
The principle of division of powers was critical to the Constitutional authors, between states and federal governments, and between the 3 arms of federal government. Hence President nominating, and Legislature approving the SCOTUS appointments. It is a feature, not a bug though this nomination does perhaps raise the possibility of breaking that deadlock and creating Republican hegemony.
Is it still possible for there to be more than 9 SC Justices? Is it just convention?
wikipedia "The Judiciary Act of 1789 called for the appointment of six "judges." ... In 1869, however, the Circuit Judges Act returned the number of justices to nine, where it has since remained. President Franklin D. Roosevelt attempted to expand the Court in 1937."
All this judicial vetting procedure shows to me is that you have to take politicians out of the process entirely.
I know that isn't the US way - but there should be no executive or legislative involvement in the appointment of judges at any level.
It is the only way to stop this sort of car crash happening time after time.
The process is set in the US Constitution, so near impossible to ammend.
It does seem extraordinarily partisan, with little scrutiny seemingly applied to the more run of the mill issues of competence.
I know it is constitutional - but things have moved on since it was written. It is clearly not fit for purpose in the modern era.
The principle of division of powers was critical to the Constitutional authors, between states and federal governments, and between the 3 arms of federal government. Hence President nominating, and Legislature approving the SCOTUS appointments. It is a feature, not a bug though this nomination does perhaps raise the possibility of breaking that deadlock and creating Republican hegemony.
Is it still possible for there to be more than 9 SC Justices? Is it just convention?
wikipedia "The Judiciary Act of 1789 called for the appointment of six "judges." ... In 1869, however, the Circuit Judges Act returned the number of justices to nine, where it has since remained. President Franklin D. Roosevelt attempted to expand the Court in 1937."
It could be done but would take the nuclear option of ending the filibuster* altogether first in order to then pass a new Act increasing the number.
* The filibuster has already been removed for federal judicial appointments but not for new laws AFAIK.
There is a division on western nations between the likes of France and New Zealand which have birthrates around replacement level and the likes of Germany, Japan and Italy which have an average birthrates of barely 1 child per woman
There is.
France has the best pro-natal policies in the world. Which I will be discussing in my next video.
Is it the oysters?😉
Actually, my next but one video.
My next video is "The Trouble With Share Options".
There is a division on western nations between the likes of France and New Zealand which have birthrates around replacement level and the likes of Germany, Japan and Italy which have an average birthrates of barely 1 child per woman
There is.
France has the best pro-natal policies in the world. Which I will be discussing in my next video.
Is it the oysters?😉
Actually, my next but one video.
My next video is "The Trouble With Share Options".
Totally, utterly borken. I'm starting to think that these are so bad that any state or country that uses them isn't really a democracy, but a sham. The rewards of hacking these machines is so great, and the hacking so easy, it *will* be happening.
Voting is a really interesting technical problem. So much so, that almost every technologist without a vested interest will tell you that the best way to conduct elections is with pencils and paper and people counting votes manually. It’s about the only situation where I think everyone is in agreement that technology just doesn’t work, among those of us who get paid to implement technology!
And the supposed benefits just don't seem worth the risk either.
There is a division on western nations between the likes of France and New Zealand which have birthrates around replacement level and the likes of Germany, Japan and Italy which have an average birthrates of barely 1 child per woman
There is.
France has the best pro-natal policies in the world. Which I will be discussing in my next video.
Is it the oysters?😉
Actually, my next but one video.
My next video is "The Trouble With Share Options".
Not the raciest of titles is it?
Could you suggest a better one?
I could, but it would be a poor in-vest-ment. I'll issue you the first half today, and the remainder in three years.
as per Boles in his article. Gets rid of May's ni problem, exit bill, and hard deadline to negotiate trade deal. Less legally questionable than the transition period.
as per Boles in his article. Gets rid of May's ni problem, exit bill, and hard deadline to negotiate trade deal. Less legally questionable than the transition period.
Yes, just reading it now. Boles recommends we leave via the EEA/EFTA and longer term try and negotiate a Canada style FTA ie a policy with some appeal to both Norway and Canada option backers and also acceptable to the EU unlike Chequers
Totally, utterly borken. I'm starting to think that these are so bad that any state or country that uses them isn't really a democracy, but a sham. The rewards of hacking these machines is so great, and the hacking so easy, it *will* be happening.
Voting is a really interesting technical problem. So much so, that almost every technologist without a vested interest will tell you that the best way to conduct elections is with pencils and paper and people counting votes manually. It’s about the only situation where I think everyone is in agreement that technology just doesn’t work, among those of us who get paid to implement technology!
And the supposed benefits just don't seem worth the risk either.
In a well-implemented 'traditional' pen-and-paper based system, it's relatively easy to change a vote or two. However it does not scale well: the more votes you want to alter, the harder it becomes, and the more likely it is for the fraud to be detected and for you are to be caught.
The problem with electronic voting is that it can be as easy to change a thousand or a million votes as it is one vote: in fact, there might be more difficulty in altering votes subtly.
It’s about the only situation where I think everyone is in agreement that technology just doesn’t work, among those of us who get paid to implement technology!
It’s about the only situation where I think everyone is in agreement that technology just doesn’t work, among those of us who get paid to implement technology!
Totally, utterly borken. I'm starting to think that these are so bad that any state or country that uses them isn't really a democracy, but a sham. The rewards of hacking these machines is so great, and the hacking so easy, it *will* be happening.
Voting is a really interesting technical problem. So much so, that almost every technologist without a vested interest will tell you that the best way to conduct elections is with pencils and paper and people counting votes manually. It’s about the only situation where I think everyone is in agreement that technology just doesn’t work, among those of us who get paid to implement technology!
And the supposed benefits just don't seem worth the risk either.
The U.K. system works pretty well. We have an election, lots of people help out and we generally know the result by the next morning. If there’s any dispute we can repeat the count in a transparent way until everyone is happy with the result. The biggest issues we face are around voter registration and postal votes.
Depending on the exact system used, electronic voting gives problems with recounts, accessibility, audit, secret ballot, hardware failures, power, and data comms and security issues, even before we get into software bugs or deliberate hacking.
It’s about the only situation where I think everyone is in agreement that technology just doesn’t work, among those of us who get paid to implement technology!
I can think of another.
Dare to enlighten us?
The Irish border.
I had a feeling it would be something Brexit-related.
As we discussed the other day, an electronic customs system is easy to implement if there is the political will to do it, it’s a pretty straightforward program, although like every other government IT program they’d insist on trying to re-invent the wheel when they can buy a perfectly serviceable one off the shelf.
There is a division on western nations between the likes of France and New Zealand which have birthrates around replacement level and the likes of Germany, Japan and Italy which have an average birthrates of barely 1 child per woman
There is.
France has the best pro-natal policies in the world. Which I will be discussing in my next video.
Is it the oysters?😉
Actually, my next but one video.
My next video is "The Trouble With Share Options".
Not the raciest of titles is it?
Could you suggest a better one?
'Call the lawyers', 'Exercise the lawyers', 'Put the brakes on', 'A time-dependent contract too far', 'Holy Strikes Batman', 'A Black day in Scholes City'
Comments
The issue is that the Italian government (which, by the way has the worst demographics in Western Europe) has targeted a budget deficit above what is allowed under the Growth & Stability Pact, i.e. 2.4% of GDP. (And note, Italian governments have a tendency to be optimistic.)
This means that Italian government bond yields have shot out (5 years have increased 32 basis points that 2.23%), as investors worry that either:
a) the ECB will cease support for Italian government debt
or
b) Italy will leave the Eurozone
Bond yields are still pretty low by historic standards, so right now (a) looks the dominant concern.
Now, rising Italian bond yields mean that the cost of funding for Italian banks increases, and makes them less profitable. (Which, by the way increases the likelihood they will need a bailout, which further stuffs Italian government finances.)
There are two possible outcomes from here. First is the Eurofudge, where Italy agrees to reduce its planned deficit to (say) 2.2%, and the ECB supports it, and everyone claims victory. Second is where neither the Italian government nor the ECB wants to compromise. The ECB stops buying Italian government bonds, and then yields shoot out. This creates a cycle where banks can't fund themselves, the government can't borrow, and - potentially - Italy leave the Eurozone in a rapid and disorganised manner.
Right now, the first option still looks the most likely. But I suspect the markets are mispricing the tail risk.
End of day likely 5 - 3 to Europe. US team utter rubbish this pm
Italy, EMG poll:
Approval ratings (PM+party leaders)
Salvini (LEGA-ENF): 52% (+1)
Conte (*-*): 47%
Di Maio (M5S-EFDD): 46% (-1)
All my family love Italy from the first time I drove them from North Wales to Venice in the early 1980's with our three children to last year when we all went to Cortona (10 of us) and further cruises during this last year. The Italians are fabulous with families and children, generous and just great to be with, apart from their driving.
I really hope Italy gets out of it's troubles, the people deserve it
I have recently got into a war game called Field of Glory II - battles range from circa 680BC to 500 AD.
I do hope this isn't to modern a period for you, but are you able to recommend any decent books about the wars and battles of that era?
The Punic Wars, particularly the Second, are well worth looking at. TA Dodge's biography/military history Hannibal is excellent (for ancient sources check out Livy and Polybius. Livy is more entertaining and complete, Polybius more neutral and accurate, though his account ends a bit early).
Dodge also wrote a similar book called Alexander. The Diadochi era (massive and long set of wars following Alexander's premature death) is fascinating but it's tricky finding a book that covers the whole thing. James Romm's[sp] Ghost on the Throne is very good, though.
Now I come to think of it, I wrote a couple of blogs (link the first in this one) with classical recommendations for beginners and intermediates:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2016/06/classical-history-for-intermediates.html
Edited extra bit: obviously I'm using the broadest definition of 'empire' above, including the regal and republican periods.
The problem with Alexander and the Successors is that there is no extant historian as close to the events in question as people like Caesar, Ammianus, Thucydides, Sallust, and Cicero were.
Point of order: there was Hieronymous of Cardia. Sidenote: one of the reasons we know so little of Lysimachus, despite him being one of the longest-living and most successful of the Diadochi, was because when he founded his own city (a commonly done thing) he cannibalised the art and forcibly moved the people of Cardia to do it. Hieronymus was not amused.
PS: I don’t think the action against Hungary and Poland over democratic backsliding is in this category.
https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1045435190460514306?s=21
In fact I'm tempted to speculate that the Democrat strategy all along has been to sherpen the partisan divide so it becomes difficult for the Republicans to replace someone who has clearly become an electoral liabilty,
But then again are they that smart?
Btw, I've spent about six months of my life in the USA and been involved in three uncomfortable gun incidents. I think it's time I stopped going.
The rest of us will shrug.
Hope they’ve got a printed background this year though, that was rediculously embarrassing to have the sign fall down when the PM was on stage.
Sinkhole? Set collapsing? Audience spontaneously walks out? Attack by bats?
Good point about Republicans in the States, they’ve got hold of a lot of State Governors and Senates, seem determined to do all they can while they have that power.
I’d guess that if the GOP hold the US Senate in November, Trump will push for at least one more Judicial retirement, probably Samuel Alito who’s 68.
The Republican dream would be the forced retirement of one of the liberal justices due to ill health. Ruth Bader Ginsberg is 85 and Stephen Breyer is 80. Either of them being replaced with a Conservative would shape the court for the next two or three decades at least.
I know that isn't the US way - but there should be no executive or legislative involvement in the appointment of judges at any level.
It is the only way to stop this sort of car crash happening time after time.
It does seem extraordinarily partisan, with little scrutiny seemingly applied to the more run of the mill issues of competence.
Parliament will not accept No Deal without EUref2 and in any case it would be highly likely No Deal both ends May's premiership and leads to another general election, maybe even by Christmas
France has the best pro-natal policies in the world. Which I will be discussing in my next video.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45686890
Ooops.
Take a look at the pics - so, what motivates a great turn out for Labour nowadays?
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/09/e-voting-researchers-warn-of-hack-that-could-flip-the-electoral-college/
Totally, utterly borken. I'm starting to think that these are so bad that any state or country that uses them isn't really a democracy, but a sham. The rewards of hacking these machines is so great, and the hacking so easy, it *will* be happening.
Actually, my next but one video.
My next video is "The Trouble With Share Options".
wikipedia "The Judiciary Act of 1789 called for the appointment of six "judges." ... In 1869, however, the Circuit Judges Act returned the number of justices to nine, where it has since remained. President Franklin D. Roosevelt attempted to expand the Court in 1937."
* The filibuster has already been removed for federal judicial appointments but not for new laws AFAIK.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/emperor-may-has-no-clothes-it-s-time-to-stop-fooling-us-all-on-brexit-a3948351.html.
I'd give one more summit to see if she can get chequers agreed. If that fails then:
1. Leave with no deal
2. Assert rights under EEA treaty (ie stay in it)
3. Apply to EFTA
4. Negotiate long term Canada plus deal whilst in EEA.
as per Boles in his article. Gets rid of May's ni problem, exit bill, and hard deadline to negotiate trade deal. Less legally questionable than the transition period.
The problem with electronic voting is that it can be as easy to change a thousand or a million votes as it is one vote: in fact, there might be more difficulty in altering votes subtly.
Then again I am neither 'good value' or exciting ...
Depending on the exact system used, electronic voting gives problems with recounts, accessibility, audit, secret ballot, hardware failures, power, and data comms and security issues, even before we get into software bugs or deliberate hacking.
As we discussed the other day, an electronic customs system is easy to implement if there is the political will to do it, it’s a pretty straightforward program, although like every other government IT program they’d insist on trying to re-invent the wheel when they can buy a perfectly serviceable one off the shelf.
Nope, no suggestions.
Flake will vote against on floor if it is brought to a vote early next without FBI enquiry