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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Demographics Two. The Big Drag

In my last demographics piece, I looked at the boost developed countries got from falling fertility freeing up females from childcare duties. (I adore alliteration.) This piece looks to the recent past, to the experience of Japan, and asks what next?

Read the full story here

Beverley_C

Last - like the UK's national interest

FrancisUrquhart

A last-minute Champions League-winning goal, or a Ryder Cup-winning putt - how much would you pay to watch those sporting climaxes?

If you're an NBA fan, it will cost you very little.

Starting this season, fans will be able to watch just the last quarter of a game "in real-time" for $1.99 (£1.52).

https://www.bbc.com/sport/basketball/45676015

Still far too much money...

AndyJS

The Tories have 15,000 members in London according to this:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6218351/Tories-select-Windrush-descendant-fight-Sadiq-Khan-London-mayoral-election.html

Philip_Thompson

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Alternatively, May could concede defeat and prepare for No Deal. In my opinion she would not survive a day if she came out for that. The Tories cannot be seen advocating a No Deal.

Agreed from here with one caveat. The Tories could if organised but May can't. Hypothetically if from Lancaster House onwards May had put in serious legwork into preparing for a no deal scenario or if the PM had said a long time ago (say last December) no deal and done serious preparations then that would be different. But May hasn't done the legwork. No deal is impossible from here from her.

FrancisUrquhart

Britain’s far right is on the rise – thanks in large part to the media

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/28/far-right-sky-news-tommy-robinson

What utter horse shit. Tommy Robinson had virtually disappeared from MSM coverage, in the meantime he built up a big social media following, was getting 100,000s of views on Facebook and only when the courts stepped in did he get coverage again.

Nick Griffin got destroyed by the sunlight of proper MSM coverage both on QT and IMO more effectively by Iain Dale.

Just shutting down any mention of these kind of things just leads to social media echo chambers where people become more and more radicalised. There was a good bit on Vox the other day about it, and an even more in depth take on it with Eric Weinstein on the Rubin Report.

TGOHF

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-aides-get-bumper-pay-awards-of-up-to-26-per-cent-a3948291.html

FrancisUrquhart

TGOHF said:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-aides-get-bumper-pay-awards-of-up-to-26-per-cent-a3948291.html

Up the werkers.....

Well when Jezza gets in and we have hyper-inflation, £100k a year will be not much more than minimum wage.

Richard_Nabavi

Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

IanB2

Booked in my pre-Christmas shop by simply adding all items to the trolley from the same order last year - seven items were unavailable and yet last year's £146 turns into this year's £184. That is your Brexit inflation right there.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, comrades.

Before I watch the video, the article reminds me a little of the contrast between William the Conqueror and John Softsword (besides the obvious).

Because William had a whole kingdom which was, effectively, his property, he could dole out huge rewards to his retainers and still have more land than he knew what to do with.

John, by contrast, was to success what Donald Trump is to modesty: an utter stranger. He lost (or gave away...) the Angevin Empire, so any efforts to try and sway people with land was much more difficult. (To the extent that some, such as William Marshal, ended up swearing fealty to John for English [in a broad sense] possessions, and to Philip Augustus, king of France, for territories formerly within the Angevin Empire).

Philip_Thompson

Any clue what's happening in Denmark? BBC remarkably light on details but it sounds serious . . . or could just be a drill.

Philip_Thompson

IanB2 said:

Booked in my pre-Christmas shop by simply adding all items to the trolley from the same order last year - seven items were unavailable and yet last year's £146 turns into this year's £184. That is your Brexit inflation right there.

Not necessarily.

If you picked anything last year because it seemed a bargain that might now simply have had regular inflation but no longer be an offer . . . while something that you didn't pick last time might be cheaper and would have been picked this time if you were starting from scratch.

That's the same phenomenon as to why recently all supermarkets could claim your basket would be cheaper there than at any other supermarket. Subconsciously you'll have chosen what made sense to choose there and had you gone to a different supermarket your basket would on average have included different products.

Anorak

Philip_Thompson said:

Any clue what's happening in Denmark? BBC remarkably light on details but it sounds serious . . . or could just be a drill.

You don't close heavily-used public infrastructure with no notice as part of an exercise.

Morris_Dancer

Most populous island in Denmark is sealed off:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45682775

tpfkar

Read through the whole of this morning's discussion without commenting - but striking how no one is defending No Deal any more. I understand why we've been talking tough on this throughout the negotiations, but there's a different dynamic in play now, as we get to the business end. Will any serious politician (i.e. not UKIP) be prepared to call for no-deal at this stage, the likes of Liam Fox and Moggy have made hints but not really been prepared to go there.

Philip_Thompson

Anorak said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Any clue what's happening in Denmark? BBC remarkably light on details but it sounds serious . . . or could just be a drill.

You don't close heavily-used public infrastructure with no notice as part of an exercise.

Typical there's details now on BBC lol. Armed manhunt and possible kidnapping, sounds serious.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1045666220077445121

FrancisUrquhart

There has also been

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Booked in my pre-Christmas shop by simply adding all items to the trolley from the same order last year - seven items were unavailable and yet last year's £146 turns into this year's £184. That is your Brexit inflation right there.

Not necessarily.

If you picked anything last year because it seemed a bargain that might now simply have had regular inflation but no longer be an offer . . . while something that you didn't pick last time might be cheaper and would have been picked this time if you were starting from scratch.

That's the same phenomenon as to why recently all supermarkets could claim your basket would be cheaper there than at any other supermarket. Subconsciously you'll have chosen what made sense to choose there and had you gone to a different supermarket your basket would on average have included different products.

There has also been global higher oil prices and very cold winter / very hot summer across Europe led to global food inflation....apparently in particular staples like wheat.

Nigelb

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Interesting, but even with all their 'fundamentals' adjustment, it isn't that close.
It's not inconceivable, but if O'Rourke were to pull it off, it would be a surprise.

FrancisUrquhart

Rory McIlroy and tiger woods playing appallingly so far in the Ryder cup.

Philip_Thompson

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Interesting, but even with all their 'fundamentals' adjustment, it isn't that close.
It's not inconceivable, but if O'Rourke were to pull it off, it would be a surprise.

It would be a Portillo moment. Or a Balls.

Richard_Nabavi

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Interesting, but even with all their 'fundamentals' adjustment, it isn't that close.
It's not inconceivable, but if O'Rourke were to pull it off, it would be a surprise.

A surprise, but not a big surprise. The 538 model gives O'Rourke a 31% chance.

Sean_F

AndyJS said:

The Tories have 15,000 members in London according to this:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6218351/Tories-select-Windrush-descendant-fight-Sadiq-Khan-London-mayoral-election.html

11% of them in Wandsworth, which is probably the highest proportion of any borough.

FrancisUrquhart

AndyJS said:

The Tories have 15,000 members in London according to this:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6218351/Tories-select-Windrush-descendant-fight-Sadiq-Khan-London-mayoral-election.html

But how many deep state operatives do they have?

Sean_F

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1045666220077445121

48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.

Anorak

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Interesting, but even with all their 'fundamentals' adjustment, it isn't that close.
It's not inconceivable, but if O'Rourke were to pull it off, it would be a surprise.

A surprise, but not a big surprise. The 538 model gives O'Rourke a 31% chance.

It would be totemic though, especially if control shifted to the Dems.

Richard_Nabavi

Anorak said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Interesting, but even with all their 'fundamentals' adjustment, it isn't that close.
It's not inconceivable, but if O'Rourke were to pull it off, it would be a surprise.

A surprise, but not a big surprise. The 538 model gives O'Rourke a 31% chance.

It would be totemic though, especially if control shifted to the Dems.

True.

Anorak

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1045666220077445121

Fun fact, Flake was born in the town of Snowflake, AZ. The town was named after his great, great grandpappy, a Mormon pioneer.

Morris_Dancer

Just watched the video. Quite interesting stuff.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/1045669475524038656

Sean_F

Anorak said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1045666220077445121

Fun fact, Flake was born in the town of Snowflake, AZ. The town was named after his great, great grandpappy, a Mormon pioneer.

Even better, Unity Mitford, the British Nazi, was born in the town of Swastika, Ontario.

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/davidmackau/status/1045669475524038656

So much for innocent until proven guilty.....

AlastairMeeks

The alliteration would have been even better if instead of “childcare duties” you had written “fecundity-framed formalities”.

Nigelb

Sean_F said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1045666220077445121

48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.

Flake is well named.

So far this morning, Kavanaugh has lost the American Bar Association:
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/408894-american-bar-association-calls-on-senate-to-hold-off-on-kavanaugh-vote-until
A Jesuit magazine which previously endorsed him:
https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2018/09/27/editors-it-time-kavanaugh-nomination-be-withdrawn
And Trump defender Alan Dershowitz...
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/alan-dershowitz-brett-kavanaugh-fbi_us_5badf163e4b0b4d308d1e411

My guess is that the four will vote as a block, but if they split, Murkowski is more likely to be 'no' than Collins.

rpjs

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Interesting, but even with all their 'fundamentals' adjustment, it isn't that close.
It's not inconceivable, but if O'Rourke were to pull it off, it would be a surprise.

OTOH Bob Menendez in NJ is facing a tough challenger with constant ads on area TV about his recent run-in with the law, although he was acquitted through a mistrial and the feds deciding not to attempt a retrial. I think he'll win, because NJ isn't the sort of place that minds too much if you're a bit dodgy so long as you're bringing home the pork, but it might get a bit squeaky-bum for the Dems there.

rcs1000

Sean_F said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1045666220077445121

48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.

Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.

DecrepitJohnL

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Interesting, but even with all their 'fundamentals' adjustment, it isn't that close.
It's not inconceivable, but if O'Rourke were to pull it off, it would be a surprise.

A surprise, but not a big surprise. The 538 model gives O'Rourke a 31% chance.

The betting has Cruz at 2/5 which is a 71% chance so basically 538's new and untested model agrees with the market to within a couple of percentage points.

Nigelb

Sean_F said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1045666220077445121

48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.

Heller thinks "Chairman Grassley has led a fair and thorough confirmation process...", so he's pretty full of it.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1045672829201641472

Richard_Nabavi

DecrepitJohnL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Interesting, but even with all their 'fundamentals' adjustment, it isn't that close.
It's not inconceivable, but if O'Rourke were to pull it off, it would be a surprise.

A surprise, but not a big surprise. The 538 model gives O'Rourke a 31% chance.

The betting has Cruz at 2/5 which is a 71% chance so basically 538's new and untested model agrees with the market to within a couple of percentage points.

Or the market is using the 538 model to set the price.

OchEye

And then there is Gibraltar. .
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/gibraltar-brexit-northern-ireland-border-spain-theresa-may-a8234516.html

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1045673323672276992

Morris_Dancer

Meanwhile, in cathedral-loving Russia:
https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1045663112823795713

rcs1000

rpjs said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Interesting, but even with all their 'fundamentals' adjustment, it isn't that close.
It's not inconceivable, but if O'Rourke were to pull it off, it would be a surprise.

OTOH Bob Menendez in NJ is facing a tough challenger with constant ads on area TV about his recent run-in with the law, although he was acquitted through a mistrial and the feds deciding not to attempt a retrial. I think he'll win, because NJ isn't the sort of place that minds too much if you're a bit dodgy so long as you're bringing home the pork, but it might get a bit squeaky-bum for the Dems there.

New Jersey, Florida, West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana are all possible Republican pick-ups. It's quite possible the Dems flip one or two of Nevada, Arizona and Texas, but lose three of their existing states.

rcs1000

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sorry to go off-topic, but this is a really interesting article on the factors helping or hindering Ted Cruz's chances of re-election in Texas (and here's a bit at the end about Nevada as a bonus):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Interesting, but even with all their 'fundamentals' adjustment, it isn't that close.
It's not inconceivable, but if O'Rourke were to pull it off, it would be a surprise.

A surprise, but not a big surprise. The 538 model gives O'Rourke a 31% chance.

The betting has Cruz at 2/5 which is a 71% chance so basically 538's new and untested model agrees with the market to within a couple of percentage points.

Or the market is using the 538 model to set the price.

PredictIt is at about 65/35 too.

It's almost like a successful pundit has some influence over the price.

FrancisUrquhart

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, in cathedral-loving Russia:
https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1045663112823795713

Mr Milne of North London still isn't convinced. They say everybody has a doppelganger.

FrancisUrquhart

Have the Indian bookies got to the US Ryder cup team...

Sandpit

Very good video Robert. These are getting a lot better, you’re a lot more relaxed and the jokes work well in what’s otherwise a quite serious piece.

rcs1000

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, in cathedral-loving Russia:
https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1045663112823795713

Mr Milne of North London still isn't convinced. They say everybody has a doppelganger.

Anatoliy Chepiga is a very common name in Russia. You meet a guy there, one-in-three chance that's his name.

rcs1000

And I can't help notice none of you lot have watched the video yet. Lazy bastards.

rcs1000

Sandpit said:

Very good video Robert. These are getting a lot better, you’re a lot more relaxed and the jokes work well in what’s otherwise a quite serious piece.

Thanks Sandpit. I think the one near the end is rather well done

rpjs

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, in cathedral-loving Russia:
https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1045663112823795713

Mr Milne of North London still isn't convinced. They say everybody has a doppelganger.

It's a very common name in Russia, I'm sure.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 1000, *cough*:

"Just watched the video. Quite interesting stuff."

tpfkar

rcs1000 said:

And I can't help notice none of you lot have watched the video yet. Lazy bastards.

After enjoying that Plaid Cymru 'victory video' I'm all videoed out for the afternoon.....

DecrepitJohnL

OT Racing Post editor Bruce Millington is stepping down.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/bruce-millington-steps-down-as-racing-post-editor-after-11-years-at-the-helm/347440

FrancisUrquhart

They are hunting three people who are involved in a "serious crime", driving in a black Swedish-registered Volvo, according to a statement.

Is it normal procedure for police in Sweden not to say what this serious crime might be?

Sandpit

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Very good video Robert. These are getting a lot better, you’re a lot more relaxed and the jokes work well in what’s otherwise a quite serious piece.

Thanks Sandpit. I think the one near the end is rather well done

Speaking to an audience that gives instant feedback is much easier than speaking to a camera in an empty room - the latter makes the subtleties of timing much more difficult to judge, and it comes across most obviously with scripted asides and jokes which are really difficult to do naturally when there’s no audience to play off.

That’s my excuse for being crap at training videos anyway, and I’m sticking to it!

Floater

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, in cathedral-loving Russia:
https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1045663112823795713

Oh FFS

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Urquhart, surely the police are Danish?

FrancisUrquhart

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, surely the police are Danish?

Yes sorry Danish (I think)...the quote is from BBC news, the car is Swedish.

FrancisUrquhart

I've seen better golfers hacking around on a Saturday morning than the US team this afternoon.

Nigelb

After FP2, Vettel's title hopes look well and truly toasted.

TheWhiteRabbit

FrancisUrquhart said:

I've seen better golfers hacking around on a Saturday morning than the US team this afternoon.

The second game is pretty competitive

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Floater, FFS? Fellow Friends of Salisbury?

Mr. Urquhart, easy mistake to make, I was just wondering if there was a joint operation.

Sandpit

How long’s it going to take for Bellingcat to find a photo of Putin handing that spy his medal?

Nigelb

Apparently, the Kavanaugh nomination is being brought to a full vote of the Senate this afternoon.
The unseemly haste suggests that a deal has been stitched up with the flakey four, and they want to get it done before anything else comes out.

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

After FP2, Vettel's title hopes look well and truly toasted.

Lewis and Seb are both 2.4-2.5 for the race. I think I’m going to lay the German driver.

He did say that he got blocked on his fastest lap today, but the red cars did seem off the pace on the long runs.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/davidclewis/status/1045679954258743302

Richard_Nabavi

Sandpit said:

How long’s it going to take for Bellingcat to find a photo of Putin handing that spy his medal?

Well, presumably the guy at GCHQ who will pass it to them needs to get the sign-offs first.

FrancisUrquhart

Nigelb said:

Apparently, the Kavanaugh nomination is being brought to a full vote of the Senate this afternoon.
The unseemly haste suggests that a deal has been stitched up with the flakey four, and they want to get it done before anything else comes out.

Don't they have to have a debate before they vote?

tlg86

rcs1000 said:

And I can't help notice none of you lot have watched the video yet. Lazy bastards.

I watched it. We’re screwed. It’s why politicians are so keen on immigration.

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

Have the Indian bookies got to the US Ryder cup team...

Had completely forgotten it was this weekend! A friend of mine is working there as a steward, lucky bugger. The one weekend every couple of years that I’ll describe myself as European

kingbongo

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, surely the police are Danish?

Yes sorry Danish (I think)...the quote is from BBC news, the car is Swedish.

As 1 of the few PBers who lives on Sjælland I can tell you there is no sign of panic as the Danish Friday continued in its normal beer-augmented way

We have had a lot of gang shootings lately in Copenhagen but this sounds different

FrancisUrquhart

kingbongo said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, surely the police are Danish?

Yes sorry Danish (I think)...the quote is from BBC news, the car is Swedish.

As 1 of the few PBers who lives on Sjælland I can tell you there is no sign of panic as the Danish Friday continued in its normal beer-augmented way

We have had a lot of gang shootings lately in Copenhagen but this sounds different

The media reports were something to do with kidnapping. Guessing somebody very high profile.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, not interested in betting at this stage, particularly after I got Singapore entirely wrong (not alone in that, but still).

kingbongo

for those interested the men in Denmark are being sort by the Danish equivalent of Special Branch

FrancisUrquhart

US +13 among their 4 groups...bloody hackers, and slow playing ones at that!

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

How longs it going to take for Bellingcat to find a photo of Putin handing that spy his medal?

Ah, but no one in Russia has believed photographs since Stalin was in power.

TheWhiteRabbit

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

How long’s it going to take for Bellingcat to find a photo of Putin handing that spy his medal?

Well, presumably the guy at GCHQ who will pass it to them needs to get the sign-offs first.

It's slightly odd that MI5 would have been happy to identify the Russians as behind the attack (which the Russians are presumably happy to be) but not make them look like idiots

rcs1000

Elon Musk: what an idiot

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/teslas-musk-pulled-plug-on-settlement-with-sec-at-last-minute.html

MarqueeMark

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

How long’s it going to take for Bellingcat to find a photo of Putin handing that spy his medal?

Well, presumably the guy at GCHQ who will pass it to them needs to get the sign-offs first.

It's slightly odd that MI5 would have been happy to identify the Russians as behind the attack (which the Russians are presumably happy to be) but not make them look like idiots

The Russians happily did that for them.....

Big_G_NorthWales

European markets tanking. Something to do with risky Italian banks

And Norway's government in crisis. Seems to be the norm these days

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, not interested in betting at this stage, particularly after I got Singapore entirely wrong (not alone in that, but still).

I got lucky in Singapore, betting early on Lewis at 4 when there was a possibility of rain, then realising it was a good bet and just letting it run. At the moment I’m free on Sunday morning so might try and come up with a betting portfolio. Given there’s a load of cars out of position, I’m thinking things like Force India for Top 6, Williams to score points, Red Bulls to DNF, safety car is almost certain, Bottas for a podium maybe...

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

Elon Musk: what an idiot

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/teslas-musk-pulled-plug-on-settlement-with-sec-at-last-minute.html

TBH, after watching him on Joe Rogan show, nothing surprises me about him now.

david_herdson

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1045666220077445121

48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.

Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.

There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.

Sandpit

rcs1000 said:

Elon Musk: what an idiot

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/teslas-musk-pulled-plug-on-settlement-with-sec-at-last-minute.html

SEC are going to throw the book at him, if he can’t prove he had all the funding in place and confirmed before he sent that Tweet.

Meanwhile fellow directors and shareholders need to send him to a private island in the Caribbean and take away his phone for a few weeks.

Anorak

rcs1000 said:

Elon Musk: what an idiot

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/teslas-musk-pulled-plug-on-settlement-with-sec-at-last-minute.html

Wow. Yes. That is really *not* in the shareholders interest. Suspect he'll be forced out - or into a "Chief Innovation Officer" type role - by Christmas.

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Apparently, the Kavanaugh nomination is being brought to a full vote of the Senate this afternoon.
The unseemly haste suggests that a deal has been stitched up with the flakey four, and they want to get it done before anything else comes out.

Don't they have to have a debate before they vote?

It looks like the timeline will be:

1:30pm today — Judiciary Committee votes favorably on Kavanaugh

Saturday — Cloture motion filed

Monday — Cloture vote

[Up to 30 hours of debate]

(Probably) Tuesday — Final Senate vote on Kavanaugh.

— Paul McLeod (@pdmcleod) 28 September 2018

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, I did look at Force India for a double top 6 finish.

I wonder about a safety car. If there isn't one right off the bat there might not be one.

The one bet I was seriously considering was Bottas to win each way at around 8.5 or 9. Imagine he'll be a lot shorter now.

Sandpit

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

How long’s it going to take for Bellingcat to find a photo of Putin handing that spy his medal?

Well, presumably the guy at GCHQ who will pass it to them needs to get the sign-offs first.

It's slightly odd that MI5 would have been happy to identify the Russians as behind the attack (which the Russians are presumably happy to be) but not make them look like idiots

I still can’t work out if they were brazen or incompetent, and therefore whether Putin is laughing with them or laughing at them.

TheWhiteRabbit

Sandpit said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

How long’s it going to take for Bellingcat to find a photo of Putin handing that spy his medal?

Well, presumably the guy at GCHQ who will pass it to them needs to get the sign-offs first.

It's slightly odd that MI5 would have been happy to identify the Russians as behind the attack (which the Russians are presumably happy to be) but not make them look like idiots

I still can’t work out if they were brazen or incompetent, and therefore whether Putin is laughing with them or laughing at them.

There is absolutely no way that hilarious press interview was part of the plan. Up to then, I thought their "mistakes" might be deliberate

Andrew

Sandpit said:

I still can’t work out if they were brazen or incompetent, and therefore whether Putin is laughing with them or laughing at them.

Definitely brazen, as with Litvinenko.

Those needed to be disappeared quietly "commit suicide", as per Berezvosky.

MarqueeMark

Anorak said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1045666220077445121

Fun fact, Flake was born in the town of Snowflake, AZ. The town was named after his great, great grandpappy, a Mormon pioneer.

I got stopped for speeding in Snowflake Arizona. I was in a GM Metro my friends had organised for me, about the same size and sturdiness as a cereal packet. The officer flagged me down and said he recorded me doing 77 miles per hour. I looked at him in disbelief. "In this?" He looked at it and said "What the hell is that thing?"

We haggled. I got away with a twenty dollar fine.

Of more import, it was the scene of a very famous UFO "abduction", made into the film "Fire in the Sky". That's who you are dealing with in Snowflake Arizona.....

Sandpit

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sandpit said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

How long’s it going to take for Bellingcat to find a photo of Putin handing that spy his medal?

Well, presumably the guy at GCHQ who will pass it to them needs to get the sign-offs first.

It's slightly odd that MI5 would have been happy to identify the Russians as behind the attack (which the Russians are presumably happy to be) but not make them look like idiots

I still can’t work out if they were brazen or incompetent, and therefore whether Putin is laughing with them or laughing at them.

There is absolutely no way that hilarious press interview was part of the plan. Up to then, I thought their "mistakes" might be deliberate

Yes, that interview is the only real clue, and I’m going to take a wild guess that there were different edits of it broadcast to domestic and international audiences. Surely if they’d monumentally messed up they’d be in Siberia by now, at that base where no-one ever leaves?

MarqueeMark

rcs1000 said:

Elon Musk: what an idiot

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/teslas-musk-pulled-plug-on-settlement-with-sec-at-last-minute.html

He is actually living the series "Billions".

DecrepitJohnL

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1045666220077445121

48 votes for certain, then. That leaves Manchin, Collins, Murkowski, and Heller to determine the outcome.

Kavanagh is fortunate indeed that his nomination has taken place so close to the mid-terms. If it had happened a year ago, there would have been plenty of time to find an alternative conservative justice.

There still is (well, not 'plenty of time', but enough). Trump has his shortlist and there's the rest of the year in which to confirm someone before the new congress sits.

As Cory Booker pointed out, Kavanaugh was not on Trump's list and seems to have been nominated for his opinion that presidents cannot be indicted while in office. That, and the corruption angle Harris was pursuing, might have made more interesting viewing.

If Kavanaugh is confirmed then it will be interesting to see if it has an effect on voting with the midterms imminent.

Floater

Big_G_NorthWales said:

European markets tanking. Something to do with risky Italian banks

And Norway's government in crisis. Seems to be the norm these days

Italy wants t borrow more and spend more than EU rules allow.

Jezza will of course pay no attention and sign off on a trillion more or so spending

stodge

Big_G_NorthWales said:

European markets tanking. Something to do with risky Italian banks

And Norway's government in crisis. Seems to be the norm these days

Oddly enough, the CAC, DAX and MiB have all rallied off their mid-afternoon lows as soon as you said the markets were "tanking".

Hmm....

Nigelb

WTAF ?
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/408928-trump-administration-predicted-seven-degree-increase-in-global
The Trump administration predicted in a draft environmental impact statement last month that the planet will warm seven degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, a development that scientists say could be catastrophic.

Among the consequences, coral reefs would dissolve, oceans would become more acidic, extreme heat waves would plague the globe, and coastal cities would be at risk of being under water, according to The Washington Post, which was the first to report on the prediction.

The prediction was contained well into a 500-page draft environmental impact statement.

The draft statement was written to defend President Trump’s decision to freeze federal fuel efficiency standards for light trucks and cars built after 2020.

It largely declared that the planet’s ultimate fate was already determined and that little could be done about it...

Big_G_NorthWales

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

European markets tanking. Something to do with risky Italian banks

And Norway's government in crisis. Seems to be the norm these days

Oddly enough, the CAC, DAX and MiB have all rallied off their mid-afternoon lows as soon as you said the markets were "tanking".

Hmm....

Not much change since I last looked. Italian assets being hammered - Bloomberg commentator saying there will be an orderly or disorderly break up of the eurozone or a constant eurozone crisis. Even saying Italy may just leave the eurozone