Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
This could be post of the week
Notoriety at last
And ITV on cue now featuring the disaster that is Venezeula
One million percent inflation
1,000,000% - that is what we have to beat post-Brexit. That will make us Great again!!!! We must have inflation at 2,000,000% or we will be second-raters!
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Poor Canada - it's a proud and prosperous nation.
I always liked the joke about the late Dean Martin who saw an advert allegedly saying “Drink Canada Dry”. So he went there and did.
Haha - was it Dean Martin who said "you're not drunk if you can lie on the floor without holding on"?
In fairness he had quite a reputation for the top shelf I think. Must’ve been some wild nights in Vegas with Frank et al but it probably affected his health.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Can you please tell me when the EU confirmed Chequers negotiation is over and they will not continue the dialogue
So how will May alter Chequers in light of the Salzburg summit? Or is she just going to ignore the EU27's objections?
How much does Chequers have to change before it ceases to be Chequers?
I have already commented you would have been a poor negotiator. You need to wait and see for the end of negotiations due by November. I sometimes negotiated successful deals over months and had anyone asked me during the negotiations I would have made no comment
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
This could be post of the week
Notoriety at last
And ITV on cue now featuring the disaster that is Venezeula
One million percent inflation
1,000,000% - that is what we have to beat post-Brexit. That will make us Great again!!!! We must have inflation at 2,000,000% or we will be second-raters!
The Democrats are overplaying their hand through this session. Too much grandstanding and over-emoting on the part of the Senators. They are only interested in playing politics.
Yes, the Republicans are also behaving badly over this. But I find this display of hand-wringing to be nauseating.
"I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep
Less than a third support for WTO terms No Deal confirms it is not viable
Just because noone wants it, doesn't mean that it cannot happen!
It is the default when nothing else is agreed.
But I think Blind Brexit is where we will be in April.
I am looking forward to it
Isn't the aim at the moment to find a way to agree that we can enter the transition period on 29th March? So whatever happens it will be "blind" to some extent. Once we're in the transition of course this could be extended indefinitely whilst everyone haggles over what replaces it. Essentially the point is to replace a hard deadline (no agreement by Brexit day = crash out Brexit) with a soft one, keep on as we are (albeit with no direct British influence) until the final situation is resolved.
Oh! Thanks for the explanation.
In that case, it is No-Deal Brexit I am looking forward to
Certainly not the boost the Corbynites expected. For all of the appeal that some of the specific policies may have, the overwhelming impression given was of unrestrained extremism with the party firmly in the grip of the far left. I recall a time when Labour conferences used to boost the party's support. And a time before that in the early 1980s when they didn't.
Certainly not the boost the Corbynites expected. For all of the appeal that some of the specific policies may have, the overwhelming impression given was of unrestrained extremism with the party firmly in the grip of the far left. I recall a time when Labour conferences used to boost the party's support. And a time before that in the early 1980s when they didn't.
It was done before both Starmer's and Corbyn's speeches, though. Previous post-conference polls seem to jolt most positively or negatively to the keynote speech, as I remember. Still, time will prove that correct or not.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
Dutch police have arrested seven men who are suspected of plotting a large-scale extremist attack in the Netherlands that prosecutors say they think has been foiled.
The suspects were arrested by heavily armed police in the towns of Arnhem and Weert, the national prosecutor's office said.
Officials said capped a months-long investigation that was launched by intelligence suggesting the alleged ring leader, a 34-year-old man of Iraqi heritage, wanted to carry out a major extremist attack on a large event and cause multiple casualties.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
Certainly not the boost the Corbynites expected. For all of the appeal that some of the specific policies may have, the overwhelming impression given was of unrestrained extremism with the party firmly in the grip of the far left. I recall a time when Labour conferences used to boost the party's support. And a time before that in the early 1980s when they didn't.
Perhaps. Alternatively, if there’s snap-back then (if I were them) I’d make the argument that this is the result of certain individuals defying the triumverate over Brexit and snap-back is a vindication of their position. If no snap-back, there’s a problem.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
Today
The DUP rejected the ERM Canada deal
Amber Rudd said her group of 40 conservatives will vote down Canada
Amber Rudd said that a no deal is not acceptable and a second referendum would be required
Raab, Hunt, Gove, Javid reject no deal
Jeremy Hunt live from New York confirmed Chequers is the deal they are negotiating
Jeremy Hunt also said too many people are underestimating TM
Faisal Islam was impressed with JH and affirmed Chequers is the deal in negotiation
That is all in the last 24 hours so Canada is off the table
What May has done is draw a line in the sand. She has said )confirmed by Hunt this afternoon) that the EU has just been saying no, no, no and the UK has gone back and then returned with different proposals. She has said "no more, this is our proposal for a solution so you say "no", then go and come back with your solution." She wants to sit down with the two proposals on the table and then whittle them down to see if a combination of both can be reached. This is one of the reasons Chequers had full single market access for goods and food, something even she knows the EU will never accept. But will they accept full single market for automotive, aerospace and some others? If they come back with no suggestions at all it tells May that they are not interested in a deal and all they want to do is keep Britain close for the next 10 years, whilst negotiating. Another cliff edge would happen 31st Dec 2020 in the case of blind brexit.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
Today
The DUP rejected the ERM Canada deal
Amber Rudd said her group of 40 conservatives will vote down Canada
Amber Rudd said that a no deal is not acceptable and a second referendum would be required
Raab, Hunt, Gove, Javid reject no deal
Jeremy Hunt live from New York confirmed Chequers is the deal they are negotiating
Jeremy Hunt also said too many people are underestimating TM
Faisal Islam was impressed with JH and affirmed Chequers is the deal in negotiation
That is all in the last 24 hours so Canada is off the table
Yes, it does bear all summarising, to illustrate how chaotic the position now is.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Can you please tell me when the EU confirmed Chequers negotiation is over and they will not continue the dialogue
So how will May alter Chequers in light of the Salzburg summit? Or is she just going to ignore the EU27's objections?
How much does Chequers have to change before it ceases to be Chequers?
I have already commented you would have been a poor negotiator. You need to wait and see for the end of negotiations due by November. I sometimes negotiated successful deals over months and had anyone asked me during the negotiations I would have made no comment
The lack of progress over the last year, and indeed retrograde step of reneging on the Withdrawal Agreement suggests that neither DD nor TM are up to much in negotiations.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
He means in TM from the ERG not a GE
Yes, but in the absence of likely alternatives for a coronation, that surely makes a GE more likely - something most Tories agree on the importance to avoid.
This was interesting comment (sometimes you actually find some decent stuff on Foxnews, in between all the dross)
"Nobody could listen to her deliver those words and talk about the assault and the impact it had had on her life and not have your heart go out to her," Wallace said. "She obviously was traumatized by an event."
Senate Democrats asked Ford questions after testimony, but Senate Republicans allowed their time to be used for questions from Arizona prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
Wallace said Mitchell was treating the hearing like a court deposition, getting Ford on the record and asking her about details, as opposed to pressing her or calling into question any of her claims.
"This is a disaster for the Republicans," Wallace said, noting that Democrats were landing "haymakers" with their follow-up questions to Ford.
"The Democrats are making their points and building her credibility, and Rachel Mitchell has, so far, not landed a glove on this witness."
In my view, either Mitchell is getting Ford on record with as much as possible so that she is committed to her story and will find it harder to change tack when Mithcell produces evidence that will undermine her, or Mitchell doesn't have anything to attack Ford with at all. At this stage we have no idea which.
The Republicans appear to believe that establishing reasonable doubt that their nominee committed sexual assault qualifies him for a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court. I think that is mistaken.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Can you please tell me when the EU confirmed Chequers negotiation is over and they will not continue the dialogue
So how will May alter Chequers in light of the Salzburg summit? Or is she just going to ignore the EU27's objections?
How much does Chequers have to change before it ceases to be Chequers?
I have already commented you would have been a poor negotiator. You need to wait and see for the end of negotiations due by November. I sometimes negotiated successful deals over months and had anyone asked me during the negotiations I would have made no comment
The lack of progress over the last year, and indeed retrograde step of reneging on the Withdrawal Agreement suggests that neither DD nor TM are up to much in negotiations.
I have done plenty of successful negotiations btw
And did you reveal details before the conclusion.
DD and Boris were a disaster for their cause. DD met Barnier for only 4 hours apparently over his last few months
At least Raab and TM have a much improved relationship
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
He means in TM from the ERG not a GE
Yes, but in the absence of likely alternatives for a coronation, that surely makes a GE more likely - something most Tories agree on the importance to avoid.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
He means in TM from the ERG not a GE
Yes, but in the absence of likely alternatives for a coronation, that surely makes a GE more likely - something most Tories agree on the importance to avoid.
I am not sure if you understand the position on a vnoc in TM by the ERG. They need over 150 conservative mps to vote her out otherwise she cannot be challenged again in 12 months. She will easily beat that on an ERG challenge.
A GE is not going to happen. It would be like the turkeys voting for christmas
I suppose what I'm saying, is that the interpretation I've often heard that TM would actually be strengthened by any loyalist turnout in a vnoc seems odd to me. It would also raise the issue of her leadership, and clarify the ERG's and/or Grieves/ Soubry-ites exact numbers, at exactly the crunch point of negotiations this autumn. Her authority is very, very precarious at the moment.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Can you please tell me when the EU confirmed Chequers negotiation is over and they will not continue the dialogue
So how will May alter Chequers in light of the Salzburg summit? Or is she just going to ignore the EU27's objections?
How much does Chequers have to change before it ceases to be Chequers?
I have already commented you would have been a poor negotiator. You need to wait and see for the end of negotiations due by November. I sometimes negotiated successful deals over months and had anyone asked me during the negotiations I would have made no comment
The lack of progress over the last year, and indeed retrograde step of reneging on the Withdrawal Agreement suggests that neither DD nor TM are up to much in negotiations.
I have done plenty of successful negotiations btw
And did you reveal details before the conclusion.
DD and Boris were a disaster for their cause. DD met Barnier for only 4 hours apparently over his last few months
At least Raab and TM have a much improved relationship
This is a very strange argument. May had already given the details of Chequers. Nobody, as far as I'm aware, is criticising her for not giving details. She's being criticised for sticking to an already rejected plan. On top of that I'm not convinced that "not feeding back information to the people on whose behalf I'm negotiating" is actually a feature of a good negotiator. Did you really refuse to keep your stakeholders informed?
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
He means in TM from the ERG not a GE
Yes, but in the absence of likely alternatives for a coronation, that surely makes a GE more likely - something most Tories agree on the importance to avoid.
I am not sure if you understand the position on a vnoc in TM by the ERG. They need over 150 conservative mps to vote her out otherwise she cannot be challenged again in 12 months. She will easily beat that on an ERG challenge.
A GE is not going to happen. It would be like the turkeys voting for christmas
If May persists with Chequers even to the point of No Deal pro EEA/Remain Tory MPs could combine with pro Canada ERG MPs to topple her
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Can you please tell me when the EU confirmed Chequers negotiation is over and they will not continue the dialogue
So how will May alter Chequers in light of the Salzburg summit? Or is she just going to ignore the EU27's objections?
How much does Chequers have to change before it ceases to be Chequers?
I have already commented you would have been a poor negotiator. You need to wait and see for the end of negotiations due by November. I sometimes negotiated successful deals over months and had anyone asked me during the negotiations I would have made no comment
The lack of progress over the last year, and indeed retrograde step of reneging on the Withdrawal Agreement suggests that neither DD nor TM are up to much in negotiations.
I have done plenty of successful negotiations btw
And did you reveal details before the conclusion.
DD and Boris were a disaster for their cause. DD met Barnier for only 4 hours apparently over his last few months
At least Raab and TM have a much improved relationship
DD resigned as he knew Chequers would be rejected by Barnier, he was working on a Canada style plan and a transition period
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
On current polls the Tories should have no terror of am early general election, better to seek a Canada deal and maybe fall short but remain largest party and leave Corbyn to navigate Brexit than stay in power with No Deal
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
On current polls the Tories should have no terror of am early general election, better to seek a Canada deal and maybe fall short but remain largest party and leave Corbyn to navigate Brexit than stay in power with No Deal
I disagree totally and find that view as a conservative member insane
Graham’s memory appears to be as lacking as his morals.
Currently, Keith Ellison is in more than a spot of trouble.
Indeed (though it’s only fair to note that he thus far denies the allegations). But without demonstrating his innocence beyond reasonable doubt, his political aspirations will take a hit.
No party is without this stuff - it’s how they deal with it that matters.
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
Today
The DUP rejected the ERM Canada deal
Amber Rudd said her group of 40 conservatives will vote down Canada
Amber Rudd said that a no deal is not acceptable and a second referendum would be required
Raab, Hunt, Gove, Javid reject no deal
Jeremy Hunt live from New York confirmed Chequers is the deal they are negotiating
Jeremy Hunt also said too many people are underestimating TM
Faisal Islam was impressed with JH and affirmed Chequers is the deal in negotiation
That is all in the last 24 hours so Canada is off the table
Canada is indeed off the table for the moment, as May is indeed still trying to negotiate Chequers, but that is not the point. Reports post Salzburg suggested that she would be given two or three weeks more rope by the Cabinet, and then the majority in the Cabinet which is now highly sceptical about persisting would force her to change tack in the absence of any progress. The fact that she has since personally come out so strongly against a Canada style option only means that her leadership will then be on the line unless she agrees to change tack.
The choice for Amber Rudd and however many are willing to vote against their own Government would then be between Canada (if a deal is negotiated) or by default No Deal by 29th March, unless parliament somehow contrives to alter what it has already voted on in order to stop Brexit altogether. It may not come to that as I don't think the EU will blink in the short term. Anyway we can all I think agree that whatever deal (if any) is eventually voted on in parliament before 29th March, it is likely to be voted down. After that we would then be starting from the opposite end of the spectrum than now, the fact that Canada would then appear as a half full rather than half empty option ought to do wonders to alter the perspective of Remainers as well as the EU - unless they want to continue with No Deal.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
On current polls the Tories should have no terror of am early general election, better to seek a Canada deal and maybe fall short but remain largest party and leave Corbyn to navigate Brexit than stay in power with No Deal
I disagree totally and find that view as a conservative member insane
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
On current polls the Tories should have no terror of am early general election, better to seek a Canada deal and maybe fall short but remain largest party and leave Corbyn to navigate Brexit than stay in power with No Deal
I disagree totally and find that view as a conservative member insane
Amazed by the absurd over-reaction to one YouGov poll.
First, the poll is far from being a judgement on the Labour Conference but is in fact the "Salzburg Flounce Bounce" which some of us expected last week. I said we'd see a 5-7 point Conservative lead and so we have.
The Friday and weekend of inane anti-European hysteria has had a minor effect.
As to the impact (if any) of this week's Labour Conference, ask me this time next week but we'll presumably all be getting our popcorn in for four days of fun and games with the Conservatives starting on Sunday.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
On current polls the Tories should have no terror of am early general election, better to seek a Canada deal and maybe fall short but remain largest party and leave Corbyn to navigate Brexit than stay in power with No Deal
I disagree totally and find that view as a conservative member insane
Canada is what polls show most Tory members and voters want but it cannot be delivered while the DUP holds the balance of power.
The Democrats are overplaying their hand through this session. Too much grandstanding and over-emoting on the part of the Senators. They are only interested in playing politics.
Yes, the Republicans are also behaving badly over this. But I find this display of hand-wringing to be nauseating.
Amazed by the absurd over-reaction to one YouGov poll.
First, the poll is far from being a judgement on the Labour Conference but is in fact the "Salzburg Flounce Bounce" which some of us expected last week. I said we'd see a 5-7 point Conservative lead and so we have.
The Friday and weekend of inane anti-European hysteria has had a minor effect.
As to the impact (if any) of this week's Labour Conference, ask me this time next week but we'll presumably all be getting our popcorn in for four days of fun and games with the Conservatives starting on Sunday.
I'm going to guess he thinks it is a bad idea. Which may well be so, though why he feels the need to keep saying it I don't know.
In which case, you agree with him, and will no doubt also keep saying so.
I'm not being paid to churn out the same thing time and time again, I'm an enthusiastic amateur, I don't believe it unreasonable to hold politicians to different standards - and if he's trying to achieve something, maybe it is time to try some more direct action rather than whinge all the time (and make himself look foolish the more he claims what he previously agreed to is something no one could agree to). And if he wants to be another Dan Hodges and churn out the same thing time and time again, maybe he should make it his full time job.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
On current polls the Tories should have no terror of am early general election, better to seek a Canada deal and maybe fall short but remain largest party and leave Corbyn to navigate Brexit than stay in power with No Deal
I disagree totally and find that view as a conservative member insane
Canada is what polls show most Tory members and voters want but it cannot be delivered while the DUP holds the balance of power.
Members yes - voters no - and Amber Rudd with the DUP collapsed it today
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
On current polls the Tories should have no terror of am early general election, better to seek a Canada deal and maybe fall short but remain largest party and leave Corbyn to navigate Brexit than stay in power with No Deal
I disagree totally and find that view as a conservative member insane
Canada is what polls show most Tory members and voters want but it cannot be delivered while the DUP holds the balance of power.
Members yes - voters no - and Amber Rudd with the DUP collapsed it today
So Amber Rudd has a veto now?
DUP said the proposal so far is vague not that they would veto it. They have said they would veto Chequers as is, as have the ERG, Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, EU, Emmanuel Macron, Barnier, Merkel and more.
I had a glorious afternoon at Newmarket Races and have now become a paid up member of the Richard Hoiles Fan Club. He did the pre-racing analysis and offered both EVEN KEEL (returned at 5s but I got 7s) and BYRON FLYER (returned at 7/2 but I got 6s) which more than paid for the day.
Magnificent though it was it was in sharp contrast to the 15 minutes of complete inanity and insanity I listened to after 6pm on LBC - billed as the "Nigel Farage Show", it features the aforementioned but the first three callers he had tonight were several sandwiches short of a picnic.
Farage himself can't decide if Brexit is turning into the greatest democratic betrayal inn our history or the greatest victory for democracy in our history.
The Democrats are overplaying their hand through this session. Too much grandstanding and over-emoting on the part of the Senators. They are only interested in playing politics.
Yes, the Republicans are also behaving badly over this. But I find this display of hand-wringing to be nauseating.
Yes - I found the whole thing very disquieting.
Should it not be rather disquieting ? How else would you find the public interrogation of a sexual assault victim ?
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
Today
The DUP rejected the ERM Canada deal
Amber Rudd said her group of 40 conservatives will vote down Canada
Amber Rudd said that a no deal is not acceptable and a second referendum would be required
Raab, Hunt, Gove, Javid reject no deal
Jeremy Hunt live from New York confirmed Chequers is the deal they are negotiating
Jeremy Hunt also said too many people are underestimating TM
Faisal Islam was impressed with JH and affirmed Chequers is the deal in negotiation
That is all in the last 24 hours so Canada is off the table
Why do you keep repeating the part in bold without adding the part that they rejected no deal because they back Canada over no deal?
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
Today
The DUP rejected the ERM Canada deal
Amber Rudd said her group of 40 conservatives will vote down Canada
Amber Rudd said that a no deal is not acceptable and a second referendum would be required
Raab, Hunt, Gove, Javid reject no deal
Jeremy Hunt live from New York confirmed Chequers is the deal they are negotiating
Jeremy Hunt also said too many people are underestimating TM
Faisal Islam was impressed with JH and affirmed Chequers is the deal in negotiation
That is all in the last 24 hours so Canada is off the table
Why do you keep repeating the part in bold without adding the part that they rejected no deal because they back Canada over no deal?
Hunt backs Chequers and did so live on television this afternoon and I did not put bold on my synopsis
Why do you have a problem with a live broadcast - watch it - its on Sky at 9.30 and watch Faisal Islam's comments
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
On current polls the Tories should have no terror of am early general election, better to seek a Canada deal and maybe fall short but remain largest party and leave Corbyn to navigate Brexit than stay in power with No Deal
I disagree totally and find that view as a conservative member insane
Canada is what polls show most Tory members and voters want but it cannot be delivered while the DUP holds the balance of power.
Members yes - voters no - and Amber Rudd with the DUP collapsed it today
So Amber Rudd has a veto now?
DUP said the proposal so far is vague not that they would veto it. They have said they would veto Chequers as is, as have the ERG, Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, EU, Emmanuel Macron, Barnier, Merkel and more.
But Rudd ...
Rudd has the same number of supporters (40) as the ERG have roughly
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What .
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
On current polls the Tories should have no terror of am early general election, better to seek a Canada deal and maybe fall short but remain largest party and leave Corbyn to navigate Brexit than stay in power with No Deal
I disagree totally and find that view as a conservative member insane
Canada is what polls show most Tory members and voters want but it cannot be delivered while the DUP holds the balance of power.
Members yes - voters no - and Amber Rudd with the DUP collapsed it today
So Amber Rudd has a veto now?
DUP said the proposal so far is vague not that they would veto it. They have said they would veto Chequers as is, as have the ERG, Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, EU, Emmanuel Macron, Barnier, Merkel and more.
But Rudd ...
The fact is that no Brexit outcome* could command the support of Parliament and people, but that No Deal would not get support either.
This is why Blind Brexit is the most likely outcome:
1) Only the Withdrawal Agreement needs to be supported.
2) Brexit happens on 29th March, albeit BINO until Dec 31 2020
3) Nothing more than a vague non-binding Trade Agreement need be achieved.
4) The can is kicked down the road so all options between EEA and WTO can remain on the Table
5) The #peoplesvote campaign becomes obselete in its current form.
6) There are 2 years to prepare for WTO
7) Drafting a detailed Trade Agreement is not possible in the time remaining before Brexit. Therefore only a broad brush agreement can be made in time.
Certainly other possibilities exist, from A50 withdrawal to Car crash hostile Brexit, but the above seems the odds on scenario.
DUP said the proposal so far is vague not that they would veto it. They have said they would veto Chequers as is, as have the ERG, Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, EU, Emmanuel Macron, Barnier, Merkel and more.
But Rudd ...
Rudd has the same number of supporters (40) as the ERG have roughly
But Rudd has to blink.
The ERG are OK with no deal. So in a game of deal or no deal they're prepared to vote the deal down.
Rudd's worst nightmare is no deal. It's unthinkable. So in the eventuality that a Canada+ deal is made then in that deal or no deal vote she has no choice but to vote for the deal. She won't admit it as she'll lose all political power, but she has no choice. She daren't vote for no deal.
Kavanaugh called the proceedings "a circus" with serious consequences.
He said his "character assassination" during the last 10 days has been full of "false, last-minute smears designed to scare" him out of the nomination process.
"Crazy stuff - gangs, illegitimate children, fights on boats... all nonsense. Reported breathlessly and often uncritically by the media. This has destroyed my family and my good name. A good name built up through decades of public service."
He called this a "calculated and orchestrated political hit".
The fact is that no Brexit outcome* could command the support of Parliament and people, but that No Deal would not get support either.
No Deal does not require any support. It is what happens by default. As long as we all keep arguing about different options then No Deal is the outcome.
No one has to do anything constructive or positive.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
Today
The DUP rejected the ERM Canada deal
Amber Rudd said her group of 40 conservatives will vote down Canada
Amber Rudd said that a no deal is not acceptable and a second referendum would be required
Raab, Hunt, Gove, Javid reject no deal
Jeremy Hunt live from New York confirmed Chequers is the deal they are negotiating
Jeremy Hunt also said too many people are underestimating TM
Faisal Islam was impressed with JH and affirmed Chequers is the deal in negotiation
That is all in the last 24 hours so Canada is off the table
Why do you keep repeating the part in bold without adding the part that they rejected no deal because they back Canada over no deal?
Hunt backs Chequers and did so live on television this afternoon and I did not put bold on my synopsis
Why do you have a problem with a live broadcast - watch it - its on Sky at 9.30 and watch Faisal Islam's comments
I put the bold in to highlight the part I was referring to.
No s**t that he backs Chequers in public but he let all the newspapers run with the fact he was backing Canada over no deal. I am not objecting to Hunt carrying the cabinet's line that right now we're negotiating Chequers but the EU are the obstacle to Chequers not our cabinet. If the EU veto Chequers - as they've already said they will - then what next?
Hunt's put his name down to Canada being next. May has put hers to no deal being next but she's bluffing. Where do you stand?
DUP said the proposal so far is vague not that they would veto it. They have said they would veto Chequers as is, as have the ERG, Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, EU, Emmanuel Macron, Barnier, Merkel and more.
But Rudd ...
Rudd has the same number of supporters (40) as the ERG have roughly
But Rudd has to blink.
The ERG are OK with no deal. So in a game of deal or no deal they're prepared to vote the deal down.
Rudd's worst nightmare is no deal. It's unthinkable. So in the eventuality that a Canada+ deal is made then in that deal or no deal vote she has no choice but to vote for the deal. She won't admit it as she'll lose all political power, but she has no choice. She daren't vote for no deal.
The fact is that no Brexit outcome* could command the support of Parliament and people, but that No Deal would not get support either.
No Deal does not require any support. It is what happens by default. As long as we all keep arguing about different options then No Deal is the outcome.
No one has to do anything constructive or positive.
Certainly possible as it is the default, but the WA preceeding No Deal will appeal to both factions.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
Today
The DUP rejected the ERM Canada deal
Amber Rudd said her group of 40 conservatives will vote down Canada
Amber Rudd said that a no deal is not acceptable and a second referendum would be required
Raab, Hunt, Gove, Javid reject no deal
Jeremy Hunt live from New York confirmed Chequers is the deal they are negotiating
Jeremy Hunt also said too many people are underestimating TM
Faisal Islam was impressed with JH and affirmed Chequers is the deal in negotiation
That is all in the last 24 hours so Canada is off the table
Why do you keep repeating the part in bold without adding the part that they rejected no deal because they back Canada over no deal?
Hunt backs Chequers and did so live on television this afternoon and I did not put bold on my synopsis
Why do you have a problem with a live broadcast - watch it - its on Sky at 9.30 and watch Faisal Islam's comments
I put the bold in to highlight the part I was referring to.
No s**t that he backs Chequers in public but he let all the newspapers run with the fact he was backing Canada over no deal. I am not objecting to Hunt carrying the cabinet's line that right now we're negotiating Chequers but the EU are the obstacle to Chequers not our cabinet. If the EU veto Chequers - as they've already said they will - then what next?
Hunt's put his name down to Canada being next. May has put hers to no deal being next but she's bluffing. Where do you stand?
The fact is that no Brexit outcome* could command the support of Parliament and people, but that No Deal would not get support either.
I disagree with this premise.
While every option is on the table no option can get a majority. However Parliament doesn't cast open ballots, they vote on binary questions. Yay or nay.
This is going to be a Noel Edmunds choice. Deal or no deal. If no deal will not get support then deal gets the votes. If deal doesn't get the votes, then no deal gets the votes. That is the battle. Deal or no deal, one must win. One must carry a majority. Yay or nay.
At 5 minutes to midnight staring into the abyss who will really vote for no deal over any deal agreed? Not many.
'This is why Blind Brexit is the most likely outcome:
1) Only the Withdrawal Agreement needs to be supported.'
But the withdrawal agreement is nowhere near being ready. This is why Remain is more likely..
That is the appeal of Blind Brexit to the Brexiteers. Brexit happens and they shoot the #peoplesvote fox. It then just becomes a discussion over the form of Brexit, though I would expect the #peoplesvote supporters to move to EEA+.
Beneath all the headlines about "Chequers", is the reality not that the single market on goods favours the EU (as net exporters to the UK) and a single market on services favours the UK (as Europe's biggest service provider). In fact for years a key British complaint has been the incompleteness of the single market as regards services.
So, having presented her proposals (the "line in the sand") the EU can now see that by officially rejecting it they are rejecting something that favours them on the alter of free movement. And it makes sense that at some point (and that appears to be where we are) the UK have to stop being the one putting forward proposals to be rejected and the EU have to bring something realistic to the party. If something akin to "Canada" is what we end up with, then it is better that the EU put in forward and we have narrowed the two extremes in our favour. Because the ultimate agreement can be somewhere between the two.
Kavanaugh called the proceedings "a circus" with serious consequences.
He said his "character assassination" during the last 10 days has been full of "false, last-minute smears designed to scare" him out of the nomination process.
"Crazy stuff - gangs, illegitimate children, fights on boats... all nonsense. Reported breathlessly and often uncritically by the media. This has destroyed my family and my good name. A good name built up through decades of public service."
He called this a "calculated and orchestrated political hit".
He goes on and on in a similar way.
An astonishingly tin-eared response to Ford's testimony, the Republicans have obviously decided Kavanaugh must be confirmed at all costs and damn the electoral consequences.
The fact is that no Brexit outcome* could command the support of Parliament and people, but that No Deal would not get support either.
I disagree with this premise.
While every option is on the table no option can get a majority. However Parliament doesn't cast open ballots, they vote on binary questions. Yay or nay.
This is going to be a Noel Edmunds choice. Deal or no deal. If no deal will not get support then deal gets the votes. If deal doesn't get the votes, then no deal gets the votes. That is the battle. Deal or no deal, one must win. One must carry a majority. Yay or nay.
At 5 minutes to midnight staring into the abyss who will really vote for no deal over any deal agreed? Not many.
That is why the Deal becomes WA and keep talking, nothing else needs to be voted on, pulling May's nuts out of the fire.
Kavanaugh called the proceedings "a circus" with serious consequences.
He said his "character assassination" during the last 10 days has been full of "false, last-minute smears designed to scare" him out of the nomination process.
"Crazy stuff - gangs, illegitimate children, fights on boats... all nonsense. Reported breathlessly and often uncritically by the media. This has destroyed my family and my good name. A good name built up through decades of public service."
He called this a "calculated and orchestrated political hit".
He goes on and on in a similar way.
An astonishingly tin-eared response to Ford's testimony, the Republicans have obviously decided Kavanaugh must be confirmed at all costs and damn the electoral consequences.
Also notable that both were required to submit their opening statements before today’s proceedings. Kavanaugh appears to have ripped his up.
Kavanaugh called the proceedings "a circus" with serious consequences.
He said his "character assassination" during the last 10 days has been full of "false, last-minute smears designed to scare" him out of the nomination process.
"Crazy stuff - gangs, illegitimate children, fights on boats... all nonsense. Reported breathlessly and often uncritically by the media. This has destroyed my family and my good name. A good name built up through decades of public service."
He called this a "calculated and orchestrated political hit".
He goes on and on in a similar way.
An astonishingly tin-eared response to Ford's testimony, the Republicans have obviously decided Kavanaugh must be confirmed at all costs and damn the electoral consequences.
Not a good lookto see a grown man crying and sniffling 'live now'
No s**t that he backs Chequers in public but he let all the newspapers run with the fact he was backing Canada over no deal. I am not objecting to Hunt carrying the cabinet's line that right now we're negotiating Chequers but the EU are the obstacle to Chequers not our cabinet. If the EU veto Chequers - as they've already said they will - then what next?
Hunt's put his name down to Canada being next. May has put hers to no deal being next but she's bluffing. Where do you stand?
TM deal or second referendum
And if TM's deal is Canada which is the majority of her cabinet's second choice?
Kavanaugh called the proceedings "a circus" with serious consequences.
He said his "character assassination" during the last 10 days has been full of "false, last-minute smears designed to scare" him out of the nomination process.
"Crazy stuff - gangs, illegitimate children, fights on boats... all nonsense. Reported breathlessly and often uncritically by the media. This has destroyed my family and my good name. A good name built up through decades of public service."
He called this a "calculated and orchestrated political hit".
He goes on and on in a similar way.
An astonishingly tin-eared response to Ford's testimony, the Republicans have obviously decided Kavanaugh must be confirmed at all costs and damn the electoral consequences.
Regardless of what I think about him, seems to me would have been better sticking to the fact that none of the people supposed at the party remember him being there, and not doubting she was abused, but a case of mistaken identity.
Banging on about the Clinton's reminds me what somebody once said about when they go low...
The fact is that no Brexit outcome* could command the support of Parliament and people, but that No Deal would not get support either.
I disagree with this premise.
While every option is on the table no option can get a majority. However Parliament doesn't cast open ballots, they vote on binary questions. Yay or nay.
This is going to be a Noel Edmunds choice. Deal or no deal. If no deal will not get support then deal gets the votes. If deal doesn't get the votes, then no deal gets the votes. That is the battle. Deal or no deal, one must win. One must carry a majority. Yay or nay.
At 5 minutes to midnight staring into the abyss who will really vote for no deal over any deal agreed? Not many.
That is why the Deal becomes WA and keep talking.
Indeed but that's still a deal. The same dynamics that scare people away from no deal will still exist a year from now while we're in transition.
No s**t that he backs Chequers in public but he let all the newspapers run with the fact he was backing Canada over no deal. I am not objecting to Hunt carrying the cabinet's line that right now we're negotiating Chequers but the EU are the obstacle to Chequers not our cabinet. If the EU veto Chequers - as they've already said they will - then what next?
Hunt's put his name down to Canada being next. May has put hers to no deal being next but she's bluffing. Where do you stand?
TM deal or second referendum
And if TM's deal is Canada which is the majority of her cabinet's second choice?
If that is the deal ok but it won't be. The HOC will vote down Canada due to its effect on the Irish border and manufacturing
No s**t that he backs Chequers in public but he let all the newspapers run with the fact he was backing Canada over no deal. I am not objecting to Hunt carrying the cabinet's line that right now we're negotiating Chequers but the EU are the obstacle to Chequers not our cabinet. If the EU veto Chequers - as they've already said they will - then what next?
Hunt's put his name down to Canada being next. May has put hers to no deal being next but she's bluffing. Where do you stand?
TM deal or second referendum
And if TM's deal is Canada which is the majority of her cabinet's second choice?
If that is the deal ok but it won't be. The HOC will vote down Canada due to its effect on the Irish border and manufacturing
The fact is that no Brexit outcome* could command the support of Parliament and people, but that No Deal would not get support either.
I disagree with this premise.
While every option is on the table no option can get a majority. However Parliament doesn't cast open ballots, they vote on binary questions. Yay or nay.
This is going to be a Noel Edmunds choice. Deal or no deal. If no deal will not get support then deal gets the votes. If deal doesn't get the votes, then no deal gets the votes. That is the battle. Deal or no deal, one must win. One must carry a majority. Yay or nay.
At 5 minutes to midnight staring into the abyss who will really vote for no deal over any deal agreed? Not many.
That is why the Deal becomes WA and keep talking, nothing else needs to be voted on, pulling May's nuts out of the fire.
The DUP is the roadblock there, though. They can effectively topple her too. It's check-mate in all directions, unless something massively unpredicted happens.
He refers to the calendars he has submitted to the committee, which he claims document the summer on 1982 when the alleged assault took place. Kavanaugh begins to break down again as he describes his reasoning for keeping a calendar, which he says is to copy the practice of his father.
“Mine are not as good as my dad’s,” he says, holding back tears, then pausing for a moment to collect his breath.
Crickey does he really have records dating back to 1982 noting his activities?
Kavanaugh called the proceedings "a circus" with serious consequences.
He said his "character assassination" during the last 10 days has been full of "false, last-minute smears designed to scare" him out of the nomination process.
"Crazy stuff - gangs, illegitimate children, fights on boats... all nonsense. Reported breathlessly and often uncritically by the media. This has destroyed my family and my good name. A good name built up through decades of public service."
He called this a "calculated and orchestrated political hit".
He goes on and on in a similar way.
An astonishingly tin-eared response to Ford's testimony, the Republicans have obviously decided Kavanaugh must be confirmed at all costs and damn the electoral consequences.
Not a good lookto see a grown man crying and sniffling 'live now'
I simply do not understand all the detail from so many years ago. I would not be able to detail everything like this from that time. Any diaries or callenders would have gone years ago
The fact is that no Brexit outcome* could command the support of Parliament and people, but that No Deal would not get support either.
I disagree with this premise.
While every option is on the table no option can get a majority. However Parliament doesn't cast open ballots, they vote on binary questions. Yay or nay.
This is going to be a Noel Edmunds choice. Deal or no deal. If no deal will not get support then deal gets the votes. If deal doesn't get the votes, then no deal gets the votes. That is the battle. Deal or no deal, one must win. One must carry a majority. Yay or nay.
At 5 minutes to midnight staring into the abyss who will really vote for no deal over any deal agreed? Not many.
That is why the Deal becomes WA and keep talking.
Indeed but that's still a deal. The same dynamics that scare people away from no deal will still exist a year from now while we're in transition.
Yes, but we have 2 years rather than 6 months to prepare, and we can keep talking.
The fact is that no Brexit outcome* could command the support of Parliament and people, but that No Deal would not get support either.
I disagree with this premise.
While every option is on the table no option can get a majority. However Parliament doesn't cast open ballots, they vote on binary questions. Yay or nay.
This is going to be a Noel Edmunds choice. Deal or no deal. If no deal will not get support then deal gets the votes. If deal doesn't get the votes, then no deal gets the votes. That is the battle. Deal or no deal, one must win. One must carry a majority. Yay or nay.
At 5 minutes to midnight staring into the abyss who will really vote for no deal over any deal agreed? Not many.
That is why the Deal becomes WA and keep talking, nothing else needs to be voted on, pulling May's nuts out of the fire.
The DUP is the roadblock there, though. They can effectively topple her too. It's check-mate in all directions, unless something massively unpredicted happens.
Though it is something that Labour could support as it meets its six tests...
OMG, he really does have his 1982 calendar (unless he has done a Jeremy Archer...)
Kavanaugh grew emotional talking about how his father kept detailed calendars (he was "a very organised guy").
He has shared his high school calendar from the summer of 1982 with the Senate committee as supporting evidence that he did not attend a Maryland party during that time as Ford alleges.
The judge told senators that he was out of town during that time, as his calendar shows.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Canada is not dead, just the EU will only apply it to GB which is unacceptable to the DUP
What died was the prospect of May reverting to a Canada-style negotiating position. Yet with a majority of the Cabinet now reported as being in favour of the option she is rejecting, what is far from dead is the prospect of the decision being taken out of her hands.
A no confidence vote by November is a possibility
What makes you think so, HYUFD ? My assumption has been the tory terror of an election.
On current polls the Tories should have no terror of am early general election, better to seek a Canada deal and maybe fall short but remain largest party and leave Corbyn to navigate Brexit than stay in power with No Deal
I disagree totally and find that view as a conservative member insane
Canada is what polls show most Tory members and voters want but it cannot be delivered while the DUP holds the balance of power.
Members yes - voters no - and Amber Rudd with the DUP collapsed it today
No, a Canada Deal is also the most popular choice with voters as a whole
The fact is that no Brexit outcome* could command the support of Parliament and people, but that No Deal would not get support either.
No Deal does not require any support. It is what happens by default. As long as we all keep arguing about different options then No Deal is the outcome.
No one has to do anything constructive or positive.
No Deal means an inevitable EU ref2 sooner rather than later which Remain would almost certainly win
The fact is that no Brexit outcome* could command the support of Parliament and people, but that No Deal would not get support either.
No Deal does not require any support. It is what happens by default. As long as we all keep arguing about different options then No Deal is the outcome.
No one has to do anything constructive or positive.
No Deal means an inevitable EU ref2 sooner rather than later which Remain would almost certainly win
Comments
Yes, the Republicans are also behaving badly over this. But I find this display of hand-wringing to be nauseating.
In that case, it is No-Deal Brexit I am looking forward to
The suspects were arrested by heavily armed police in the towns of Arnhem and Weert, the national prosecutor's office said.
Officials said capped a months-long investigation that was launched by intelligence suggesting the alleged ring leader, a 34-year-old man of Iraqi heritage, wanted to carry out a major extremist attack on a large event and cause multiple casualties.
The DUP rejected the ERM Canada deal
Amber Rudd said her group of 40 conservatives will vote down Canada
Amber Rudd said that a no deal is not acceptable and a second referendum would be required
Raab, Hunt, Gove, Javid reject no deal
Jeremy Hunt live from New York confirmed Chequers is the deal they are negotiating
Jeremy Hunt also said too many people are underestimating TM
Faisal Islam was impressed with JH and affirmed Chequers is the deal in negotiation
That is all in the last 24 hours so Canada is off the table
She has said "no more, this is our proposal for a solution so you say "no", then go and come back with your solution."
She wants to sit down with the two proposals on the table and then whittle them down to see if a combination of both can be reached. This is one of the reasons Chequers had full single market access for goods and food, something even she knows the EU will never accept. But will they accept full single market for automotive, aerospace and some others?
If they come back with no suggestions at all it tells May that they are not interested in a deal and all they want to do is keep Britain close for the next 10 years, whilst negotiating. Another cliff edge would happen 31st Dec 2020 in the case of blind brexit.
I have done plenty of successful negotiations btw
https://twitter.com/brianbeutler/status/1045360677408395264
I think that is mistaken.
As for Mitchell, the questions about timelines are a rather unfortunate reminder of this:
https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/a-former-jehovahs-witness-elder-who-sexually-abused-a-teenager-gets-only-six-months-6450280
DD and Boris were a disaster for their cause. DD met Barnier for only 4 hours apparently over his last few months
At least Raab and TM have a much improved relationship
A GE is not going to happen. It would be like the turkeys voting for christmas
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/27/ford-kavanaugh-white-house-reaction-849231
Not a bad effort I thought.
Graham’s memory appears to be as lacking as his morals.
No party is without this stuff - it’s how they deal with it that matters.
It is only one poll and I for one am not getting carried away with it. Let us see how we end up after next weeks conservative conference
The choice for Amber Rudd and however many are willing to vote against their own Government would then be between Canada (if a deal is negotiated) or by default No Deal by 29th March, unless parliament somehow contrives to alter what it has already voted on in order to stop Brexit altogether. It may not come to that as I don't think the EU will blink in the short term. Anyway we can all I think agree that whatever deal (if any) is eventually voted on in parliament before 29th March, it is likely to be voted down. After that we would then be starting from the opposite end of the spectrum than now, the fact that Canada would then appear as a half full rather than half empty option ought to do wonders to alter the perspective of Remainers as well as the EU - unless they want to continue with No Deal.
JRMICIPM
Amazed by the absurd over-reaction to one YouGov poll.
First, the poll is far from being a judgement on the Labour Conference but is in fact the "Salzburg Flounce Bounce" which some of us expected last week. I said we'd see a 5-7 point Conservative lead and so we have.
The Friday and weekend of inane anti-European hysteria has had a minor effect.
As to the impact (if any) of this week's Labour Conference, ask me this time next week but we'll presumably all be getting our popcorn in for four days of fun and games with the Conservatives starting on Sunday.
DUP said the proposal so far is vague not that they would veto it. They have said they would veto Chequers as is, as have the ERG, Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, EU, Emmanuel Macron, Barnier, Merkel and more.
But Rudd ...
Magnificent though it was it was in sharp contrast to the 15 minutes of complete inanity and insanity I listened to after 6pm on LBC - billed as the "Nigel Farage Show", it features the aforementioned but the first three callers he had tonight were several sandwiches short of a picnic.
Farage himself can't decide if Brexit is turning into the greatest democratic betrayal inn our history or the greatest victory for democracy in our history.
I don't think he's alone.
How else would you find the public interrogation of a sexual assault victim ?
Why do you have a problem with a live broadcast - watch it - its on Sky at 9.30 and watch Faisal Islam's comments
This is why Blind Brexit is the most likely outcome:
1) Only the Withdrawal Agreement needs to be supported.
2) Brexit happens on 29th March, albeit BINO until Dec 31 2020
3) Nothing more than a vague non-binding Trade Agreement need be achieved.
4) The can is kicked down the road so all options between EEA and WTO can remain on the Table
5) The #peoplesvote campaign becomes obselete in its current form.
6) There are 2 years to prepare for WTO
7) Drafting a detailed Trade Agreement is not possible in the time remaining before Brexit. Therefore only a broad brush agreement can be made in time.
Certainly other possibilities exist, from A50 withdrawal to Car crash hostile Brexit, but the above seems the odds on scenario.
*Possibly Remain
The ERG are OK with no deal. So in a game of deal or no deal they're prepared to vote the deal down.
Rudd's worst nightmare is no deal. It's unthinkable. So in the eventuality that a Canada+ deal is made then in that deal or no deal vote she has no choice but to vote for the deal. She won't admit it as she'll lose all political power, but she has no choice. She daren't vote for no deal.
Kavanaugh called the proceedings "a circus" with serious consequences.
He said his "character assassination" during the last 10 days has been full of "false, last-minute smears designed to scare" him out of the nomination process.
"Crazy stuff - gangs, illegitimate children, fights on boats... all nonsense. Reported breathlessly and often uncritically by the media. This has destroyed my family and my good name. A good name built up through decades of public service."
He called this a "calculated and orchestrated political hit".
He goes on and on in a similar way.
CON 41 (-1)
LAB 40 (+1)
LD 9 (+1)
UKIP 4 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
Fieldwork 21st-24th Sep (changes vs 7th-9th)
No one has to do anything constructive or positive.
No s**t that he backs Chequers in public but he let all the newspapers run with the fact he was backing Canada over no deal. I am not objecting to Hunt carrying the cabinet's line that right now we're negotiating Chequers but the EU are the obstacle to Chequers not our cabinet. If the EU veto Chequers - as they've already said they will - then what next?
Hunt's put his name down to Canada being next. May has put hers to no deal being next but she's bluffing. Where do you stand?
This is why Blind Brexit is the most likely outcome:
1) Only the Withdrawal Agreement needs to be supported.
*Possibly Remain
But the withdrawal agreement is nowhere near being ready. This is why Remain is more likely.
While every option is on the table no option can get a majority. However Parliament doesn't cast open ballots, they vote on binary questions. Yay or nay.
This is going to be a Noel Edmunds choice. Deal or no deal. If no deal will not get support then deal gets the votes. If deal doesn't get the votes, then no deal gets the votes. That is the battle. Deal or no deal, one must win. One must carry a majority. Yay or nay.
At 5 minutes to midnight staring into the abyss who will really vote for no deal over any deal agreed? Not many.
So, having presented her proposals (the "line in the sand") the EU can now see that by officially rejecting it they are rejecting something that favours them on the alter of free movement. And it makes sense that at some point (and that appears to be where we are) the UK have to stop being the one putting forward proposals to be rejected and the EU have to bring something realistic to the party. If something akin to "Canada" is what we end up with, then it is better that the EU put in forward and we have narrowed the two extremes in our favour. Because the ultimate agreement can be somewhere between the two.
Banging on about the Clinton's reminds me what somebody once said about when they go low...
Kavanaugh grew emotional talking about how his father kept detailed calendars (he was "a very organised guy").
He has shared his high school calendar from the summer of 1982 with the Senate committee as supporting evidence that he did not attend a Maryland party during that time as Ford alleges.
The judge told senators that he was out of town during that time, as his calendar shows.
https://order-order.com/page/2/
I once hosted him for an evening when he was my guest speaker at an event , before his problems, and he was very interesting and dynamic