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SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited September 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Senate Kavanaugh hearing begins taking evidence from the woman who says she was sexually attacked by Trump’s nominee

BBC News

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    First day after my 63rd birthday.
  • Fox News host Chris Wallace said, only hours before the hearing began, that he, like "a lot of American families" had been discussing Kavanaugh's nomination.

    He said that during those discussions "two of my daughters told me stories that I had never heard before about things that happened to them in high school".

    He acknowledged that their experience is not as serious as those claims made about Kavanaugh, but "the point is that there are teenage girls who don’t tell stories to a lot of people and then it comes up".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    If I were in the mood to bet, I'd regard that as mispriced - I don't think he will be.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    JohnO said:

    First day after my 63rd birthday.

    Many happy returns.
  • Scott_P said:
    That is a 6% lead. Lets see if the old commie has made inrows into it over this weekend
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:
    Bizarre time to be doing a poll - At the start of the party conference?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bizarre time to be doing a poll - At the start of the party conference?
    Looking for the LibDem bounce...
  • GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bizarre time to be doing a poll - At the start of the party conference?
    And Starmers remain speech
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    JohnO said:

    First day after my 63rd birthday.

    Have a very merry unbirthday!
  • Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found.
    The truth of the allegations will play no part.
    Bizarre, bizarre system.
  • Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    dixiedean said:

    Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found.
    The truth of the allegations will play no part.
    Bizarre, bizarre system.

    This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    They've set it on fire?
  • Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    'I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability'
  • It will take some persuading before I want to live in John McDonnell's world.
  • Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    'I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability'
    Read the poll
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited September 2018
    This was interesting comment (sometimes you actually find some decent stuff on Foxnews, in between all the dross)
    "Nobody could listen to her deliver those words and talk about the assault and the impact it had had on her life and not have your heart go out to her," Wallace said. "She obviously was traumatized by an event."

    Senate Democrats asked Ford questions after testimony, but Senate Republicans allowed their time to be used for questions from Arizona prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.

    Wallace said Mitchell was treating the hearing like a court deposition, getting Ford on the record and asking her about details, as opposed to pressing her or calling into question any of her claims.

    "This is a disaster for the Republicans," Wallace said, noting that Democrats were landing "haymakers" with their follow-up questions to Ford.

    "The Democrats are making their points and building her credibility, and Rachel Mitchell has, so far, not landed a glove on this witness."
    http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/09/27/chris-wallace-christine-blasey-ford-testimony-rachel-mitchell-disaster-republicans


  • DavidL said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    They've set it on fire?
    Apparently not
  • alex. said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found.
    The truth of the allegations will play no part.
    Bizarre, bizarre system.

    This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.
    Trump will still be president even if the Dems take the Senate. He would just have to pick a more moderate candidate (which might not be such a bad thing)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    alex. said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found.
    The truth of the allegations will play no part.
    Bizarre, bizarre system.

    This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.
    Understand that. However, Senators in close races might not be so keen.
  • Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    I strongly suspect that poll to be an outlier.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    alex. said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found.
    The truth of the allegations will play no part.
    Bizarre, bizarre system.

    This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.
    Trump will still be president even if the Dems take the Senate. He would just have to pick a more moderate candidate (which might not be such a bad thing)
    After the Merrick Garland nonsense, he would have to be very moderate? After all, if a Senate nominee hasn't the right to be considered in the last year of Presidential office (because the voters "have to be given a chance to prevent it") then why should a right leaning nominee be considered after the right have been routed in an election? (just for the avoidance of doubt, both arguments are nonsense).
  • The other most recent poll out today or yesterday put the Tories on 41% and Labour on 40, as I recall.
  • Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    I strongly suspect that poll to be an outlier.
    Does look possible but after Starmers remain speech

    Polls are polls and not reliable at the best of times
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    It's the way you tell 'em! :)

    Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    DavidL said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    They've set it on fire?
    Apparently not
    Perhaps the public's opinion of Chequers has improved in direct response to the EU rubbishing of it? After all, the reason it was polling so badly was because the Brexiteers were so against it (brushing aside that some claimed their reasons included its absence of prospects of EU agreement, as well as what it actually was).
  • Foxy said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    It's the way you tell 'em! :)

    Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

    Have you read the poll rather than being silly
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".
  • MaxPB said:

    Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".

    Good news
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Foxy said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    It's the way you tell 'em! :)

    Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

    Have you read the poll rather than being silly
    In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

    Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2018
    MaxPB said:

    Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".

    Pah! Experts, who listens to them?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2018

    Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited September 2018

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    I strongly suspect that poll to be an outlier.
    Does look possible but after Starmers remain speech

    Polls are polls and not reliable at the best of times
    Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different,

    Indeed - wait and see time
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    3 German polls in a row from different companies with figures of CDU/CSU 27%, AfD 18%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_German_federal_election#Poll_results
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    MaxPB said:

    Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".

    Pah! Experts, who listens to them?
    It was no doubt the French bank's view that all would be well in 2008 too.
  • alex. said:

    This was interesting comment (sometimes you actually find some decent stuff on Foxnews, in between all the dross)
    "Nobody could listen to her deliver those words and talk about the assault and the impact it had had on her life and not have your heart go out to her," Wallace said. "She obviously was traumatized by an event."

    Senate Democrats asked Ford questions after testimony, but Senate Republicans allowed their time to be used for questions from Arizona prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.

    Wallace said Mitchell was treating the hearing like a court deposition, getting Ford on the record and asking her about details, as opposed to pressing her or calling into question any of her claims.

    "This is a disaster for the Republicans," Wallace said, noting that Democrats were landing "haymakers" with their follow-up questions to Ford.

    "The Democrats are making their points and building her credibility, and Rachel Mitchell has, so far, not landed a glove on this witness."
    http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/09/27/chris-wallace-christine-blasey-ford-testimony-rachel-mitchell-disaster-republicans




    In my view, either Mitchell is getting Ford on record with as much as possible so that she is committed to her story and will find it harder to change tack when Mithcell produces evidence that will undermine her, or Mitchell doesn't have anything to attack Ford with at all. At this stage we have no idea which.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    It's the way you tell 'em! :)

    Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

    Have you read the poll rather than being silly
    In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

    Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
    I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Chris_A said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".

    Pah! Experts, who listens to them?
    It was no doubt the French bank's view that all would be well in 2008 too.
    And they would have been right, what's your point?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Sep 26

    "Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

    Agree: 32%
    Disagree: 61%

    --

    Leave voters
    Agree: 35%
    Disagree: 59%

    Remain voters
    Agree: 29%
    Disagree: 63%

    via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    "I am not interested in the details of Brexit negotiations, I just want those responsible to get on with it": Agree: 52% Disagree: 43% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    "I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited September 2018
    marke09 said:


    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Sep 26

    "Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

    Agree: 32%
    Disagree: 61%

    --

    Leave voters
    Agree: 35%
    Disagree: 59%

    Remain voters
    Agree: 29%
    Disagree: 63%

    via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

    I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    It's the way you tell 'em! :)

    Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

    Have you read the poll rather than being silly
    In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

    Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
    I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
    Perhaps it was all a cunning plan. Chequers was getting such a bad press in the UK that the EU had to find some way to give it a boost if it was going to happen. The best way to do that was to "humiliate" May by declaring it unacceptable to the EU.

    Very smart these top level politicians!

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    6 point Con lead ?

    Tragic Grandpa more like...

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    marke09 said:

    "I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

    That's a poorly worded question.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2018
    marke09 said:

    "I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

    52% not endorsing No Deal, even at the very beginning of the phase where the majority have begun to understand its implications. WTO terms for the majority still means some coherently worked out set of deals that they aren't familiar with the specifics of.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    marke09 said:

    "I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

    Less than a third support for WTO terms No Deal confirms it is not viable
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    It's the way you tell 'em! :)

    Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

    Have you read the poll rather than being silly
    In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

    Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
    I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
    So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

    It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!
  • TGOHF said:

    6 point Con lead ?

    Tragic Grandpa more like...

    Need to see weekend polls first
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited September 2018


    Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

    Keep clutching at those short straws

    I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.
  • marke09 said:

    "I am not interested in the details of Brexit negotiations, I just want those responsible to get on with it": Agree: 52% Disagree: 43% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep


    This could mean almost anything.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    It's the way you tell 'em! :)

    Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

    Have you read the poll rather than being silly
    In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

    Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
    I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
    So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

    It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!
    Yes
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:

    "I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

    Less than a third support for WTO terms No Deal confirms it is not viable
    Just because noone wants it, doesn't mean that it cannot happen!

    It is the default when nothing else is agreed.

    But I think Blind Brexit is where we will be in April.
  • marke09 said:


    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Sep 26

    "Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

    Agree: 32%
    Disagree: 61%

    --

    Leave voters
    Agree: 35%
    Disagree: 59%

    Remain voters
    Agree: 29%
    Disagree: 63%

    via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

    I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for
    I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

  • Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

    Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    6 point Con lead ?

    Tragic Grandpa more like...

    Need to see weekend polls first
    Looks like the only thing holding up Corbo was the deluded remainers thinking he was on their side.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2018


    Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

    Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?
    At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation doing the heavy lifting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    It's the way you tell 'em! :)

    Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

    Have you read the poll rather than being silly
    In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

    Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
    I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
    So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

    It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!
    Yes
    I cannot see it working myself, but I accept that the rigidity of May's thinking is such that she may well try it.

    How much more clear do the EU27 have to be than they were at Salzburg for her to listen?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    marke09 said:


    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Sep 26

    "Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

    Agree: 32%
    Disagree: 61%

    --

    Leave voters
    Agree: 35%
    Disagree: 59%

    Remain voters
    Agree: 29%
    Disagree: 63%

    via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

    I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for
    I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it
    Also, no one ever likes to admit they didn't understand something. I have not seen the poll but I'd be interested in the answer if they asked people whther they thought other voters understood the complexity. Polls on bad drivers always show people think there are a lot about... but not them, personally.
  • YouGov must know something other polls don’t, because they seem to be the only pollster showing the Tories with these kinds of leads. The others are showing the picture we’ve seen for months now.

    And I wish I could be surprised that the Kavanaugh nomination is still going, but I’m not. And Senator Orrin Hatch’s recent statements (all over twitter) about the attractiveness of Christine Blasey Ford are simply unbelievable.
  • Mortimer said:


    Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

    Keep clutching at those short straws

    I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.
    Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    YouGov must know something other polls don’t, because they seem to be the only pollster showing the Tories with these kinds of leads. The others are showing the picture we’ve seen for months now.

    And I wish I could be surprised that the Kavanaugh nomination is still going, but I’m not. And Senator Orrin Hatch’s recent statements (all over twitter) about the attractiveness of Christine Blasey Ford are simply unbelievable.

    Should be unbelievable perhaps.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633


    Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

    Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?
    At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation that would be doing the heavy lifting.
    Labour have led just 2 polls since August (12 polls) and just 1 out of the last 10.

    Their average poll share peaked last January.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election



  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    It's the way you tell 'em! :)

    Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

    Have you read the poll rather than being silly
    In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

    Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
    I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
    So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

    It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!
    Yes
    I cannot see it working myself, but I accept that the rigidity of May's thinking is such that she may well try it.

    How much more clear do the EU27 have to be than they were at Salzburg for her to listen?
    You would have been a terrible negotiator. I assume you would have capitulated in front of all those men descending on her and said of course I surrender to your power.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    6 point Con lead ?

    Tragic Grandpa more like...

    Need to see weekend polls first
    Looks like the only thing holding up Corbo was the deluded remainers thinking he was on their side.
    I think it is a bit early for that. This poll was before the great leaders speech
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:


    Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

    Keep clutching at those short straws

    I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.
    Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much
    Haven’t you heard? I’m the most patronising poster on here...

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    It's the way you tell 'em! :)

    Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

    Have you read the poll rather than being silly
    In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

    Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
    I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
    So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

    It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!
    Yes
    I cannot see it working myself, but I accept that the rigidity of May's thinking is such that she may well try it.

    How much more clear do the EU27 have to be than they were at Salzburg for her to listen?
    The thing is you still get stories under the surface that make little sense in the context of "no deal nailed on, both sides as far a part as ever", that sometimes makes you think that the public spats and pronouncements still might sometimes be a bit of a game. eg. there was a story yesterday about the "alarm" of EU negotiators that Corbyn would automatically vote against any deal because he wanted an election.

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2018
    TGOHF said:


    Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

    Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?
    At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation that would be doing the heavy lifting.
    Labour have led just 2 polls since August (12 polls) and just 1 out of the last 10.

    Their average poll share peaked last January.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Yes, but as far as I'm aware the Yougov poll is far out of line with the recent polls that have shown Tory leads.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
  • marke09 said:


    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Sep 26

    "Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

    Agree: 32%
    Disagree: 61%

    --

    Leave voters
    Agree: 35%
    Disagree: 59%

    Remain voters
    Agree: 29%
    Disagree: 63%

    via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

    I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for
    I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it
    Also, no one ever likes to admit they didn't understand something. I have not seen the poll but I'd be interested in the answer if they asked people whther they thought other voters understood the complexity. Polls on bad drivers always show people think there are a lot about... but not them, personally.
    Yes indeed. It is said that a majority of drivers think they are above average...mmm. Personally I think anyone that agreed with the statement "we have had enough of experts" should be denied treatment on the NHS and made to go to the nearest Voodoo practitioner instead of the GP
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

    https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

    As voters warm to Chequers
    It's the way you tell 'em! :)

    Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

    Have you read the poll rather than being silly
    In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

    Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
    I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
    So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

    It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!
    Yes
    To many salesmen, a "No" means I will not buy [it] from you.............. yet.

    A failed sale is simply a sale deferred ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Scott_P said:
    If that sort of thing is accurate I truly just don't understand the world - I mean, I voted Tory last time, and it is not as though their behaviour has been united or inspired confidence for much of recent months (and more).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    marke09 said:


    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Sep 26

    "Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

    Agree: 32%
    Disagree: 61%

    --

    Leave voters
    Agree: 35%
    Disagree: 59%

    Remain voters
    Agree: 29%
    Disagree: 63%

    via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

    I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for
    I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it
    Also, no one ever likes to admit they didn't understand something. I have not seen the poll but I'd be interested in the answer if they asked people whther they thought other voters understood the complexity. Polls on bad drivers always show people think there are a lot about... but not them, personally.
    Yes indeed. It is said that a majority of drivers think they are above average...mmm. Personally I think anyone that agreed with the statement "we have had enough of experts" should be denied treatment on the NHS and made to go to the nearest Voodoo practitioner instead of the GP
    A bit harsh, but makes a fair point.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:

    "I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

    Less than a third support for WTO terms No Deal confirms it is not viable
    Just because noone wants it, doesn't mean that it cannot happen!

    It is the default when nothing else is agreed.

    But I think Blind Brexit is where we will be in April.
    I am looking forward to it :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:


    Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

    Keep clutching at those short straws

    I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.
    Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much
    Haven’t you heard? I’m the most patronising poster on here...

    Sounds like a challenge has been laid down
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:


    Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

    Keep clutching at those short straws

    I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.
    Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much
    Haven’t you heard? I’m the most patronising poster on here...

    I am humbled to be threatening your top spot
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    If that sort of thing is accurate I truly just don't understand the world - I mean, I voted Tory last time, and it is not as though their behaviour has been united or inspired confidence for much of recent months (and more).
    As mentioned, my own sense is that it's either a methodological outlier or coloured by the temporary remainer anger at Mcluskey/McDonnell on Monday/Tuesday, but time will tell.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:

    "I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

    Less than a third support for WTO terms No Deal confirms it is not viable
    Just because noone wants it, doesn't mean that it cannot happen!

    It is the default when nothing else is agreed.

    But I think Blind Brexit is where we will be in April.
    I am looking forward to it :)
    Isn't the aim at the moment to find a way to agree that we can enter the transition period on 29th March? So whatever happens it will be "blind" to some extent. Once we're in the transition of course this could be extended indefinitely whilst everyone haggles over what replaces it. Essentially the point is to replace a hard deadline (no agreement by Brexit day = crash out Brexit) with a soft one, keep on as we are (albeit with no direct British influence) until the final situation is resolved.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
    Poor Canada - it's a proud and prosperous nation.
  • TGOHF said:


    Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

    Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?
    At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation that would be doing the heavy lifting.
    Labour have led just 2 polls since August (12 polls) and just 1 out of the last 10.

    Their average poll share peaked last January.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Yes, but as far as I'm aware the Yougov poll is far out of line with the recent polls that have shown Tory leads.
    It is fair to say we should wait for more polls and see if Corbyn has made any progress
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
    Yikes - and it is such a big place too. Did Trump do that?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
    Boot Hill is getting full!

    Canada dead alongside Chequers...
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Can you please tell me when the EU confirmed Chequers negotiation is over and they will not continue the dialogue
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
    Poor Canada - it's a proud and prosperous nation.
    I always liked the joke about the late Dean Martin who saw an advert allegedly saying “Drink Canada Dry”. So he went there and did.
  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 297
    edited September 2018

    It will take some persuading before I want to live in John McDonnell's world.
    “To all naive patsies, biased sources, let us please, fuck up London with a socialist screed, hun” #McDonnell’s
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
    This could be post of the week :D:D:D:D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    welshowl said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
    Poor Canada - it's a proud and prosperous nation.
    I always liked the joke about the late Dean Martin who saw an advert allegedly saying “Drink Canada Dry”. So he went there and did.
    Haha - was it Dean Martin who said "you're not drunk if you can lie on the floor without holding on"?
  • Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
    Boot Hill is getting full!

    Canada dead alongside Chequers...
    Not according to Jeremy Hunt live from New York this afternoon who endorsed Chequers and warnrd against underrating TM. Even Faisal Islam was impressed confirming Chequers is not dead
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
    Poor Canada - it's a proud and prosperous nation.
    And home to my eldest son and his wife in Vancouver
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Can you please tell me when the EU confirmed Chequers negotiation is over and they will not continue the dialogue
    So how will May alter Chequers in light of the Salzburg summit? Or is she just going to ignore the EU27's objections?

    How much does Chequers have to change before it ceases to be Chequers?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited September 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
    The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
    Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
    Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
    This could be post of the week :D:D:D:D
    Notoriety at last

    And ITV on cue now featuring the disaster that is Venezeula

    One million percent inflation
This discussion has been closed.