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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Senate Kavanaugh hearing begins taking evidence from the woman who says she was sexually attacked by Trump’s nominee

BBC News

Read the full story here

JohnO

First day after my 63rd birthday.

TheWhiteRabbit

Fox News host Chris Wallace said, only hours before the hearing began, that he, like "a lot of American families" had been discussing Kavanaugh's nomination.

He said that during those discussions "two of my daughters told me stories that I had never heard before about things that happened to them in high school".

He acknowledged that their experience is not as serious as those claims made about Kavanaugh, but "the point is that there are teenage girls who don’t tell stories to a lot of people and then it comes up".

Nigelb

If I were in the mood to bet, I'd regard that as mispriced - I don't think he will be.

Ishmael_Z

JohnO said:

First day after my 63rd birthday.

Many happy returns.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

That is a 6% lead. Lets see if the old commie has made inrows into it over this weekend

GIN1138

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Bizarre time to be doing a poll - At the start of the party conference?

alex.

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Bizarre time to be doing a poll - At the start of the party conference?

Looking for the LibDem bounce...

Big_G_NorthWales

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Bizarre time to be doing a poll - At the start of the party conference?

And Starmers remain speech

Foxy

JohnO said:

First day after my 63rd birthday.

Have a very merry unbirthday!

Big_G_NorthWales

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1045310354392322048

dixiedean

Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found.
The truth of the allegations will play no part.
Bizarre, bizarre system.

Big_G_NorthWales

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

alex.

dixiedean said:

Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found.
The truth of the allegations will play no part.
Bizarre, bizarre system.

This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.

DavidL

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

They've set it on fire?

rottenborough

Not looking good:

https://twitter.com/gabrielsherman/status/1045350130080239616

Philip_Thompson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

'I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability'

rottenborough

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1045310354392322048

It will take some persuading before I want to live in John McDonnell's world.

Big_G_NorthWales

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

'I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability'

Read the poll

alex.

rottenborough said:

Not looking good:

https://twitter.com/gabrielsherman/status/1045350130080239616

This was interesting comment (sometimes you actually find some decent stuff on Foxnews, in between all the dross)

"Nobody could listen to her deliver those words and talk about the assault and the impact it had had on her life and not have your heart go out to her," Wallace said. "She obviously was traumatized by an event."

Senate Democrats asked Ford questions after testimony, but Senate Republicans allowed their time to be used for questions from Arizona prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.

Wallace said Mitchell was treating the hearing like a court deposition, getting Ford on the record and asking her about details, as opposed to pressing her or calling into question any of her claims.

"This is a disaster for the Republicans," Wallace said, noting that Democrats were landing "haymakers" with their follow-up questions to Ford.

"The Democrats are making their points and building her credibility, and Rachel Mitchell has, so far, not landed a glove on this witness."

http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/09/27/chris-wallace-christine-blasey-ford-testimony-rachel-mitchell-disaster-republicans

Big_G_NorthWales

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

They've set it on fire?

Apparently not

GarethoftheVale2

alex. said:

dixiedean said:

Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found.
The truth of the allegations will play no part.
Bizarre, bizarre system.

This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.

Trump will still be president even if the Dems take the Senate. He would just have to pick a more moderate candidate (which might not be such a bad thing)

dixiedean

alex. said:

dixiedean said:

Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found.
The truth of the allegations will play no part.
Bizarre, bizarre system.

This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.

Understand that. However, Senators in close races might not be so keen.

WhisperingOracle

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

I strongly suspect that poll to be an outlier.

alex.

GarethoftheVale2 said:

alex. said:

dixiedean said:

Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found.
The truth of the allegations will play no part.
Bizarre, bizarre system.

This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.

Trump will still be president even if the Dems take the Senate. He would just have to pick a more moderate candidate (which might not be such a bad thing)

After the Merrick Garland nonsense, he would have to be very moderate? After all, if a Senate nominee hasn't the right to be considered in the last year of Presidential office (because the voters "have to be given a chance to prevent it") then why should a right leaning nominee be considered after the right have been routed in an election? (just for the avoidance of doubt, both arguments are nonsense).

WhisperingOracle

The other most recent poll out today or yesterday put the Tories on 41% and Labour on 40, as I recall.

Big_G_NorthWales

WhisperingOracle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

I strongly suspect that poll to be an outlier.

Does look possible but after Starmers remain speech

Polls are polls and not reliable at the best of times

Foxy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

It's the way you tell 'em!

Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

alex.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

They've set it on fire?

Apparently not

Perhaps the public's opinion of Chequers has improved in direct response to the EU rubbishing of it? After all, the reason it was polling so badly was because the Brexiteers were so against it (brushing aside that some claimed their reasons included its absence of prospects of EU agreement, as well as what it actually was).

Big_G_NorthWales

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

It's the way you tell 'em!

Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

Have you read the poll rather than being silly

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

I blame the deep state....

MaxPB

Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".

Big_G_NorthWales

MaxPB said:

Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".

Good news

Foxy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

It's the way you tell 'em!

Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

Have you read the poll rather than being silly

In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?

Richard_Nabavi

MaxPB said:

Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".

Pah! Experts, who listens to them?

WhisperingOracle

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

Big_G_NorthWales

Big_G_NorthWales said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

I strongly suspect that poll to be an outlier.

Does look possible but after Starmers remain speech

Polls are polls and not reliable at the best of times

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different,

Indeed - wait and see time

AndyJS

3 German polls in a row from different companies with figures of CDU/CSU 27%, AfD 18%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_German_federal_election#Poll_results

Chris_A

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".

Pah! Experts, who listens to them?

It was no doubt the French bank's view that all would be well in 2008 too.

prh47bridge

alex. said:

rottenborough said:

Not looking good:

https://twitter.com/gabrielsherman/status/1045350130080239616

This was interesting comment (sometimes you actually find some decent stuff on Foxnews, in between all the dross)

"Nobody could listen to her deliver those words and talk about the assault and the impact it had had on her life and not have your heart go out to her," Wallace said. "She obviously was traumatized by an event."

Senate Democrats asked Ford questions after testimony, but Senate Republicans allowed their time to be used for questions from Arizona prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.

Wallace said Mitchell was treating the hearing like a court deposition, getting Ford on the record and asking her about details, as opposed to pressing her or calling into question any of her claims.

"This is a disaster for the Republicans," Wallace said, noting that Democrats were landing "haymakers" with their follow-up questions to Ford.

"The Democrats are making their points and building her credibility, and Rachel Mitchell has, so far, not landed a glove on this witness."

http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/09/27/chris-wallace-christine-blasey-ford-testimony-rachel-mitchell-disaster-republicans




In my view, either Mitchell is getting Ford on record with as much as possible so that she is committed to her story and will find it harder to change tack when Mithcell produces evidence that will undermine her, or Mitchell doesn't have anything to attack Ford with at all. At this stage we have no idea which.

Big_G_NorthWales

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

It's the way you tell 'em!

Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

Have you read the poll rather than being silly

In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?

I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see

MaxPB

Chris_A said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".

Pah! Experts, who listens to them?

It was no doubt the French bank's view that all would be well in 2008 too.

And they would have been right, what's your point?

marke09

Britain Elects
‏ @britainelects
Sep 26

"Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

Agree: 32%
Disagree: 61%

--

Leave voters
Agree: 35%
Disagree: 59%

Remain voters
Agree: 29%
Disagree: 63%

via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

marke09

"I am not interested in the details of Brexit negotiations, I just want those responsible to get on with it": Agree: 52% Disagree: 43% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

marke09

"I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

Big_G_NorthWales

marke09 said:

Britain Elects
‏ @britainelects
Sep 26

"Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

Agree: 32%
Disagree: 61%

--

Leave voters
Agree: 35%
Disagree: 59%

Remain voters
Agree: 29%
Disagree: 63%

via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for

alex.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

It's the way you tell 'em!

Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

Have you read the poll rather than being silly

In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?

I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see

Perhaps it was all a cunning plan. Chequers was getting such a bad press in the UK that the EU had to find some way to give it a boost if it was going to happen. The best way to do that was to "humiliate" May by declaring it unacceptable to the EU.

Very smart these top level politicians!

TGOHF

6 point Con lead ?

Tragic Grandpa more like...

MaxPB

marke09 said:

"I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

That's a poorly worded question.

HYUFD

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

WhisperingOracle

marke09 said:

"I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

52% not endorsing No Deal, even at the very beginning of the phase where the majority have begun to understand its implications. WTO terms for the majority still means some coherently worked out set of deals that they aren't familiar with the specifics of.

HYUFD

marke09 said:

"I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

Less than a third support for WTO terms No Deal confirms it is not viable

Foxy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

It's the way you tell 'em!

Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

Have you read the poll rather than being silly

In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?

I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see

So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!

Big_G_NorthWales

TGOHF said:

6 point Con lead ?

Tragic Grandpa more like...

Need to see weekend polls first

Mortimer

WhisperingOracle said:

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

Keep clutching at those short straws

I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.

WhisperingOracle

marke09 said:

"I am not interested in the details of Brexit negotiations, I just want those responsible to get on with it": Agree: 52% Disagree: 43% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

This could mean almost anything.

Big_G_NorthWales

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

It's the way you tell 'em!

Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

Have you read the poll rather than being silly

In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?

I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see

So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!

Yes

Foxy

HYUFD said:

marke09 said:

"I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

Less than a third support for WTO terms No Deal confirms it is not viable

Just because noone wants it, doesn't mean that it cannot happen!

It is the default when nothing else is agreed.

But I think Blind Brexit is where we will be in April.

Nigel_Foremain

Big_G_NorthWales said:

marke09 said:

Britain Elects
‏ @britainelects
Sep 26

"Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

Agree: 32%
Disagree: 61%

--

Leave voters
Agree: 35%
Disagree: 59%

Remain voters
Agree: 29%
Disagree: 63%

via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for

I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

BannedInParis

WhisperingOracle said:

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?

TGOHF

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

6 point Con lead ?

Tragic Grandpa more like...

Need to see weekend polls first

Looks like the only thing holding up Corbo was the deluded remainers thinking he was on their side.

WhisperingOracle

BannedInParis said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?

At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation doing the heavy lifting.

Foxy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

It's the way you tell 'em!

Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

Have you read the poll rather than being silly

In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?

I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see

So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!

Yes

I cannot see it working myself, but I accept that the rigidity of May's thinking is such that she may well try it.

How much more clear do the EU27 have to be than they were at Salzburg for her to listen?

Benpointer

Nigel_Foremain said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

marke09 said:

Britain Elects
‏ @britainelects
Sep 26

"Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

Agree: 32%
Disagree: 61%

--

Leave voters
Agree: 35%
Disagree: 59%

Remain voters
Agree: 29%
Disagree: 63%

via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for

I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it

Also, no one ever likes to admit they didn't understand something. I have not seen the poll but I'd be interested in the answer if they asked people whther they thought other voters understood the complexity. Polls on bad drivers always show people think there are a lot about... but not them, personally.

The_Apocalypse

YouGov must know something other polls don’t, because they seem to be the only pollster showing the Tories with these kinds of leads. The others are showing the picture we’ve seen for months now.

And I wish I could be surprised that the Kavanaugh nomination is still going, but I’m not. And Senator Orrin Hatch’s recent statements (all over twitter) about the attractiveness of Christine Blasey Ford are simply unbelievable.

Nigel_Foremain

Mortimer said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

Keep clutching at those short straws

I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.

Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much

kle4

The_Apocalypse said:

YouGov must know something other polls don’t, because they seem to be the only pollster showing the Tories with these kinds of leads. The others are showing the picture we’ve seen for months now.

And I wish I could be surprised that the Kavanaugh nomination is still going, but I’m not. And Senator Orrin Hatch’s recent statements (all over twitter) about the attractiveness of Christine Blasey Ford are simply unbelievable.

Should be unbelievable perhaps.

TGOHF

WhisperingOracle said:

BannedInParis said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?

At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation that would be doing the heavy lifting.

Labour have led just 2 polls since August (12 polls) and just 1 out of the last 10.

Their average poll share peaked last January.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Big_G_NorthWales

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

It's the way you tell 'em!

Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

Have you read the poll rather than being silly

In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?

I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see

So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!

Yes

I cannot see it working myself, but I accept that the rigidity of May's thinking is such that she may well try it.

How much more clear do the EU27 have to be than they were at Salzburg for her to listen?

You would have been a terrible negotiator. I assume you would have capitulated in front of all those men descending on her and said of course I surrender to your power.

HYUFD

https://mobile.twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1045337844968038400

Big_G_NorthWales

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

6 point Con lead ?

Tragic Grandpa more like...

Need to see weekend polls first

Looks like the only thing holding up Corbo was the deluded remainers thinking he was on their side.

I think it is a bit early for that. This poll was before the great leaders speech

Mortimer

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mortimer said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

Keep clutching at those short straws

I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.

Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much

Haven’t you heard? I’m the most patronising poster on here...

alex.

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

It's the way you tell 'em!

Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

Have you read the poll rather than being silly

In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?

I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see

So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!

Yes

I cannot see it working myself, but I accept that the rigidity of May's thinking is such that she may well try it.

How much more clear do the EU27 have to be than they were at Salzburg for her to listen?

The thing is you still get stories under the surface that make little sense in the context of "no deal nailed on, both sides as far a part as ever", that sometimes makes you think that the public spats and pronouncements still might sometimes be a bit of a game. eg. there was a story yesterday about the "alarm" of EU negotiators that Corbyn would automatically vote against any deal because he wanted an election.

WhisperingOracle

TGOHF said:

WhisperingOracle said:

BannedInParis said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?

At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation that would be doing the heavy lifting.

Labour have led just 2 polls since August (12 polls) and just 1 out of the last 10.

Their average poll share peaked last January.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Yes, but as far as I'm aware the Yougov poll is far out of line with the recent polls that have shown Tory leads.

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Nigel_Foremain

Benpointer said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

marke09 said:

Britain Elects
‏ @britainelects
Sep 26

"Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

Agree: 32%
Disagree: 61%

--

Leave voters
Agree: 35%
Disagree: 59%

Remain voters
Agree: 29%
Disagree: 63%

via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for

I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it

Also, no one ever likes to admit they didn't understand something. I have not seen the poll but I'd be interested in the answer if they asked people whther they thought other voters understood the complexity. Polls on bad drivers always show people think there are a lot about... but not them, personally.

Yes indeed. It is said that a majority of drivers think they are above average...mmm. Personally I think anyone that agreed with the statement "we have had enough of experts" should be denied treatment on the NHS and made to go to the nearest Voodoo practitioner instead of the GP

Beverley_C

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tories going into conference with a 6 point lead over Labour

https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx

As voters warm to Chequers

It's the way you tell 'em!

Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.

Have you read the poll rather than being silly

In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?

Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?

I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see

So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?

It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!

Yes

To many salesmen, a "No" means I will not buy [it] from you.............. yet.

A failed sale is simply a sale deferred

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

If that sort of thing is accurate I truly just don't understand the world - I mean, I voted Tory last time, and it is not as though their behaviour has been united or inspired confidence for much of recent months (and more).

Benpointer

Nigel_Foremain said:

Benpointer said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

marke09 said:

Britain Elects
‏ @britainelects
Sep 26

"Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":

Agree: 32%
Disagree: 61%

--

Leave voters
Agree: 35%
Disagree: 59%

Remain voters
Agree: 29%
Disagree: 63%

via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for

I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it

Also, no one ever likes to admit they didn't understand something. I have not seen the poll but I'd be interested in the answer if they asked people whther they thought other voters understood the complexity. Polls on bad drivers always show people think there are a lot about... but not them, personally.

Yes indeed. It is said that a majority of drivers think they are above average...mmm. Personally I think anyone that agreed with the statement "we have had enough of experts" should be denied treatment on the NHS and made to go to the nearest Voodoo practitioner instead of the GP

A bit harsh, but makes a fair point.

Beverley_C

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

marke09 said:

"I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

Less than a third support for WTO terms No Deal confirms it is not viable

Just because noone wants it, doesn't mean that it cannot happen!

It is the default when nothing else is agreed.

But I think Blind Brexit is where we will be in April.

I am looking forward to it

kle4

Mortimer said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mortimer said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

Keep clutching at those short straws

I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.

Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much

Haven’t you heard? I’m the most patronising poster on here...

Sounds like a challenge has been laid down

Nigel_Foremain

Mortimer said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mortimer said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

Keep clutching at those short straws

I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.

Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much

Haven’t you heard? I’m the most patronising poster on here...

I am humbled to be threatening your top spot

WhisperingOracle

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

If that sort of thing is accurate I truly just don't understand the world - I mean, I voted Tory last time, and it is not as though their behaviour has been united or inspired confidence for much of recent months (and more).

As mentioned, my own sense is that it's either a methodological outlier or coloured by the temporary remainer anger at Mcluskey/McDonnell on Monday/Tuesday, but time will tell.

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours

alex.

Beverley_C said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

marke09 said:

"I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep

Less than a third support for WTO terms No Deal confirms it is not viable

Just because noone wants it, doesn't mean that it cannot happen!

It is the default when nothing else is agreed.

But I think Blind Brexit is where we will be in April.

I am looking forward to it

Isn't the aim at the moment to find a way to agree that we can enter the transition period on 29th March? So whatever happens it will be "blind" to some extent. Once we're in the transition of course this could be extended indefinitely whilst everyone haggles over what replaces it. Essentially the point is to replace a hard deadline (no agreement by Brexit day = crash out Brexit) with a soft one, keep on as we are (albeit with no direct British influence) until the final situation is resolved.

WhisperingOracle

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours

Poor Canada - it's a proud and prosperous nation.

Big_G_NorthWales

WhisperingOracle said:

TGOHF said:

WhisperingOracle said:

BannedInParis said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.

Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?

At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation that would be doing the heavy lifting.

Labour have led just 2 polls since August (12 polls) and just 1 out of the last 10.

Their average poll share peaked last January.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Yes, but as far as I'm aware the Yougov poll is far out of line with the recent polls that have shown Tory leads.

It is fair to say we should wait for more polls and see if Corbyn has made any progress

Beverley_C

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours

Yikes - and it is such a big place too. Did Trump do that?

Foxy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours

Boot Hill is getting full!

Canada dead alongside Chequers...

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Can you please tell me when the EU confirmed Chequers negotiation is over and they will not continue the dialogue

welshowl

WhisperingOracle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours

Poor Canada - it's a proud and prosperous nation.

I always liked the joke about the late Dean Martin who saw an advert allegedly saying “Drink Canada Dry”. So he went there and did.

JohnRussell

rottenborough said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1045310354392322048

It will take some persuading before I want to live in John McDonnell's world.

“To all naive patsies, biased sources, let us please, fuck up London with a socialist screed, hun” #McDonnell’s

Beverley_C

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours

This could be post of the week

Benpointer

welshowl said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours

Poor Canada - it's a proud and prosperous nation.

I always liked the joke about the late Dean Martin who saw an advert allegedly saying “Drink Canada Dry”. So he went there and did.

Haha - was it Dean Martin who said "you're not drunk if you can lie on the floor without holding on"?

Big_G_NorthWales

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours

Boot Hill is getting full!

Canada dead alongside Chequers...

Not according to Jeremy Hunt live from New York this afternoon who endorsed Chequers and warnrd against underrating TM. Even Faisal Islam was impressed confirming Chequers is not dead

Big_G_NorthWales

WhisperingOracle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours

Poor Canada - it's a proud and prosperous nation.

And home to my eldest son and his wife in Vancouver

Foxy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Can you please tell me when the EU confirmed Chequers negotiation is over and they will not continue the dialogue

So how will May alter Chequers in light of the Salzburg summit? Or is she just going to ignore the EU27's objections?

How much does Chequers have to change before it ceases to be Chequers?

Big_G_NorthWales

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers

The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers

Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers

Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours

This could be post of the week

Notoriety at last

And ITV on cue now featuring the disaster that is Venezeula

One million percent inflation