politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Senate Kavanaugh hearing begins taking evidence from the woman who says she was sexually attacked by Trump’s nominee
Fox News host Chris Wallace said, only hours before the hearing began, that he, like "a lot of American families" had been discussing Kavanaugh's nomination.
He said that during those discussions "two of my daughters told me stories that I had never heard before about things that happened to them in high school".
He acknowledged that their experience is not as serious as those claims made about Kavanaugh, but "the point is that there are teenage girls who don’t tell stories to a lot of people and then it comes up".
Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found. The truth of the allegations will play no part. Bizarre, bizarre system.
Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found. The truth of the allegations will play no part. Bizarre, bizarre system.
This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.
This was interesting comment (sometimes you actually find some decent stuff on Foxnews, in between all the dross)
"Nobody could listen to her deliver those words and talk about the assault and the impact it had had on her life and not have your heart go out to her," Wallace said. "She obviously was traumatized by an event."
Senate Democrats asked Ford questions after testimony, but Senate Republicans allowed their time to be used for questions from Arizona prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
Wallace said Mitchell was treating the hearing like a court deposition, getting Ford on the record and asking her about details, as opposed to pressing her or calling into question any of her claims.
"This is a disaster for the Republicans," Wallace said, noting that Democrats were landing "haymakers" with their follow-up questions to Ford.
"The Democrats are making their points and building her credibility, and Rachel Mitchell has, so far, not landed a glove on this witness."
Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found. The truth of the allegations will play no part. Bizarre, bizarre system.
This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.
Trump will still be president even if the Dems take the Senate. He would just have to pick a more moderate candidate (which might not be such a bad thing)
Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found. The truth of the allegations will play no part. Bizarre, bizarre system.
This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.
Understand that. However, Senators in close races might not be so keen.
Sadly, I fear the Kavanaugh confirmation will come down to polling. If Republicans fear it will ruin their re-election chances, they could vote against. Another, equally Conservative judge can be found. The truth of the allegations will play no part. Bizarre, bizarre system.
This might be the only chance the Republicans have. That's why they're so desperate to rush it through.
Trump will still be president even if the Dems take the Senate. He would just have to pick a more moderate candidate (which might not be such a bad thing)
After the Merrick Garland nonsense, he would have to be very moderate? After all, if a Senate nominee hasn't the right to be considered in the last year of Presidential office (because the voters "have to be given a chance to prevent it") then why should a right leaning nominee be considered after the right have been routed in an election? (just for the avoidance of doubt, both arguments are nonsense).
Perhaps the public's opinion of Chequers has improved in direct response to the EU rubbishing of it? After all, the reason it was polling so badly was because the Brexiteers were so against it (brushing aside that some claimed their reasons included its absence of prospects of EU agreement, as well as what it actually was).
Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".
Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".
Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Does look possible but after Starmers remain speech
Polls are polls and not reliable at the best of times
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different,
Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".
Pah! Experts, who listens to them?
It was no doubt the French bank's view that all would be well in 2008 too.
This was interesting comment (sometimes you actually find some decent stuff on Foxnews, in between all the dross)
"Nobody could listen to her deliver those words and talk about the assault and the impact it had had on her life and not have your heart go out to her," Wallace said. "She obviously was traumatized by an event."
Senate Democrats asked Ford questions after testimony, but Senate Republicans allowed their time to be used for questions from Arizona prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
Wallace said Mitchell was treating the hearing like a court deposition, getting Ford on the record and asking her about details, as opposed to pressing her or calling into question any of her claims.
"This is a disaster for the Republicans," Wallace said, noting that Democrats were landing "haymakers" with their follow-up questions to Ford.
"The Democrats are making their points and building her credibility, and Rachel Mitchell has, so far, not landed a glove on this witness."
In my view, either Mitchell is getting Ford on record with as much as possible so that she is committed to her story and will find it harder to change tack when Mithcell produces evidence that will undermine her, or Mitchell doesn't have anything to attack Ford with at all. At this stage we have no idea which.
Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.
Have you read the poll rather than being silly
In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?
Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
Just had a briefing paper by a French bank shared with me, it's not going to make for happy reading for the French - "It is our view that Britain will remain a safe haven economy after brexit, even in the event of no deal".
Pah! Experts, who listens to them?
It was no doubt the French bank's view that all would be well in 2008 too.
And they would have been right, what's your point?
"I am not interested in the details of Brexit negotiations, I just want those responsible to get on with it": Agree: 52% Disagree: 43% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep
Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.
Have you read the poll rather than being silly
In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?
Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
Perhaps it was all a cunning plan. Chequers was getting such a bad press in the UK that the EU had to find some way to give it a boost if it was going to happen. The best way to do that was to "humiliate" May by declaring it unacceptable to the EU.
"I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep
52% not endorsing No Deal, even at the very beginning of the phase where the majority have begun to understand its implications. WTO terms for the majority still means some coherently worked out set of deals that they aren't familiar with the specifics of.
Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.
Have you read the poll rather than being silly
In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?
Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Keep clutching at those short straws
I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.
"I am not interested in the details of Brexit negotiations, I just want those responsible to get on with it": Agree: 52% Disagree: 43% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep
Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.
Have you read the poll rather than being silly
In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?
Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?
I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for
I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?
At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation doing the heavy lifting.
Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.
Have you read the poll rather than being silly
In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?
Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?
It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!
Yes
I cannot see it working myself, but I accept that the rigidity of May's thinking is such that she may well try it.
How much more clear do the EU27 have to be than they were at Salzburg for her to listen?
I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for
I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it
Also, no one ever likes to admit they didn't understand something. I have not seen the poll but I'd be interested in the answer if they asked people whther they thought other voters understood the complexity. Polls on bad drivers always show people think there are a lot about... but not them, personally.
YouGov must know something other polls don’t, because they seem to be the only pollster showing the Tories with these kinds of leads. The others are showing the picture we’ve seen for months now.
And I wish I could be surprised that the Kavanaugh nomination is still going, but I’m not. And Senator Orrin Hatch’s recent statements (all over twitter) about the attractiveness of Christine Blasey Ford are simply unbelievable.
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Keep clutching at those short straws
I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.
Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much
YouGov must know something other polls don’t, because they seem to be the only pollster showing the Tories with these kinds of leads. The others are showing the picture we’ve seen for months now.
And I wish I could be surprised that the Kavanaugh nomination is still going, but I’m not. And Senator Orrin Hatch’s recent statements (all over twitter) about the attractiveness of Christine Blasey Ford are simply unbelievable.
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?
At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation that would be doing the heavy lifting.
Labour have led just 2 polls since August (12 polls) and just 1 out of the last 10.
Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.
Have you read the poll rather than being silly
In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?
Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?
It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!
Yes
I cannot see it working myself, but I accept that the rigidity of May's thinking is such that she may well try it.
How much more clear do the EU27 have to be than they were at Salzburg for her to listen?
You would have been a terrible negotiator. I assume you would have capitulated in front of all those men descending on her and said of course I surrender to your power.
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Keep clutching at those short straws
I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.
Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much
Haven’t you heard? I’m the most patronising poster on here...
Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.
Have you read the poll rather than being silly
In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?
Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?
It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!
Yes
I cannot see it working myself, but I accept that the rigidity of May's thinking is such that she may well try it.
How much more clear do the EU27 have to be than they were at Salzburg for her to listen?
The thing is you still get stories under the surface that make little sense in the context of "no deal nailed on, both sides as far a part as ever", that sometimes makes you think that the public spats and pronouncements still might sometimes be a bit of a game. eg. there was a story yesterday about the "alarm" of EU negotiators that Corbyn would automatically vote against any deal because he wanted an election.
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?
At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation that would be doing the heavy lifting.
Labour have led just 2 polls since August (12 polls) and just 1 out of the last 10.
I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for
I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it
Also, no one ever likes to admit they didn't understand something. I have not seen the poll but I'd be interested in the answer if they asked people whther they thought other voters understood the complexity. Polls on bad drivers always show people think there are a lot about... but not them, personally.
Yes indeed. It is said that a majority of drivers think they are above average...mmm. Personally I think anyone that agreed with the statement "we have had enough of experts" should be denied treatment on the NHS and made to go to the nearest Voodoo practitioner instead of the GP
Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.
Have you read the poll rather than being silly
In what sense can Chequers be viable going forward, when rejected by the EU27?
Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
I had a lifetime of negotiating deals in my business before I retired 9 years ago and until the UK and EU say it is over, prudence may be the best course. Or wait and see
So, when negotiating would you go back with a rejected offer a month later expecting a different result?
It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!
Yes
To many salesmen, a "No" means I will not buy [it] from you.............. yet.
If that sort of thing is accurate I truly just don't understand the world - I mean, I voted Tory last time, and it is not as though their behaviour has been united or inspired confidence for much of recent months (and more).
I saw that poll and it does contradict the idea no one knew what they were voting for
I think that is something you can interpret how you want. A large number of people still have got no idea on the complexity of what they voted on, they just don't know it and/or don't want to know it
Also, no one ever likes to admit they didn't understand something. I have not seen the poll but I'd be interested in the answer if they asked people whther they thought other voters understood the complexity. Polls on bad drivers always show people think there are a lot about... but not them, personally.
Yes indeed. It is said that a majority of drivers think they are above average...mmm. Personally I think anyone that agreed with the statement "we have had enough of experts" should be denied treatment on the NHS and made to go to the nearest Voodoo practitioner instead of the GP
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Keep clutching at those short straws
I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.
Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much
Haven’t you heard? I’m the most patronising poster on here...
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Keep clutching at those short straws
I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.
Bit rich for any Leave supporter to be accusing others at clutching at straws. Every tiny morsel of any news that justifies their ludicrous decision is seized upon with so much gusto that it would make Comical Ali think it was a bit much
Haven’t you heard? I’m the most patronising poster on here...
If that sort of thing is accurate I truly just don't understand the world - I mean, I voted Tory last time, and it is not as though their behaviour has been united or inspired confidence for much of recent months (and more).
As mentioned, my own sense is that it's either a methodological outlier or coloured by the temporary remainer anger at Mcluskey/McDonnell on Monday/Tuesday, but time will tell.
"I don't support a 'no-deal' Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms": Agree: 48% Disagree: 30% via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep
Less than a third support for WTO terms No Deal confirms it is not viable
Just because noone wants it, doesn't mean that it cannot happen!
It is the default when nothing else is agreed.
But I think Blind Brexit is where we will be in April.
I am looking forward to it
Isn't the aim at the moment to find a way to agree that we can enter the transition period on 29th March? So whatever happens it will be "blind" to some extent. Once we're in the transition of course this could be extended indefinitely whilst everyone haggles over what replaces it. Essentially the point is to replace a hard deadline (no agreement by Brexit day = crash out Brexit) with a soft one, keep on as we are (albeit with no direct British influence) until the final situation is resolved.
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Do you think that final 'may' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there?
At the moment, this single poll is doing the heavy lifting, as it's out of line with the rest. If that were to change, it would be my interpretation that would be doing the heavy lifting.
Labour have led just 2 polls since August (12 polls) and just 1 out of the last 10.
Could be a small Tory majority on those figures which would help Canada deal backers
The poll indicates improved public approval for Chequers
Given the EU have rejected Chequers that is irrelevant and even now Canada is still far preferred by the public to Chequers
Canada is dead - it died in the last 24 hours
Boot Hill is getting full!
Canada dead alongside Chequers...
Not according to Jeremy Hunt live from New York this afternoon who endorsed Chequers and warnrd against underrating TM. Even Faisal Islam was impressed confirming Chequers is not dead
Comments
He said that during those discussions "two of my daughters told me stories that I had never heard before about things that happened to them in high school".
He acknowledged that their experience is not as serious as those claims made about Kavanaugh, but "the point is that there are teenage girls who don’t tell stories to a lot of people and then it comes up".
https://t.co/IX13UvlYcx
The truth of the allegations will play no part.
Bizarre, bizarre system.
https://twitter.com/gabrielsherman/status/1045350130080239616
Polls are polls and not reliable at the best of times
Though perhaps it is the EU27 that needs to warm up the cold lifeless corpse of Chequers.
Perhaps with substantial revision it could be resubmitted, but what is the purpose of resubmitting the same plan that was rejected 2 weeks ago?
Another possibility is that the Monday / early Tuesday period, exactly when this poll seemed to be being done, seemed to be characterised by a lot of furious Remain reaction at McLuskey/McDonnell position. The post-Starmer polls may look different.
Indeed - wait and see time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_German_federal_election#Poll_results
In my view, either Mitchell is getting Ford on record with as much as possible so that she is committed to her story and will find it harder to change tack when Mithcell produces evidence that will undermine her, or Mitchell doesn't have anything to attack Ford with at all. At this stage we have no idea which.
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Sep 26
"Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum":
Agree: 32%
Disagree: 61%
--
Leave voters
Agree: 35%
Disagree: 59%
Remain voters
Agree: 29%
Disagree: 63%
via @ORB_Int, 21 - 23 Sep
Very smart these top level politicians!
Tragic Grandpa more like...
It doesn't seem a good tactic to me!
I’ve always been of the opinion that actually Brexiting (or as some people might call it, doing what the electorate told us to) would be very electorally beneficial for the Tories. And of course, getting two fingered salute from the EU at Salzburg was always going to boost May’s standing. Even fervent Remainers baulked at that treatment.
This could mean almost anything.
It is the default when nothing else is agreed.
But I think Blind Brexit is where we will be in April.
How much more clear do the EU27 have to be than they were at Salzburg for her to listen?
And I wish I could be surprised that the Kavanaugh nomination is still going, but I’m not. And Senator Orrin Hatch’s recent statements (all over twitter) about the attractiveness of Christine Blasey Ford are simply unbelievable.
Their average poll share peaked last January.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
A failed sale is simply a sale deferred
Canada dead alongside Chequers...
How much does Chequers have to change before it ceases to be Chequers?
And ITV on cue now featuring the disaster that is Venezeula
One million percent inflation