Fell down the biggest Corbyn trap ever laid if true.
Labour is dead as a do do with WWC if true.
"And the Labour leader will reluctantly back a second EU referendum if his party conference calls for it."
He can do so as reluctantly as he likes, until he has to action it he won't lose support.
Being in favour of a second referendum could lose him support among Labour Leave voters who see it as an attempt to thwart the result of the first referendum.
See my edit - if he doesn't need to actually follow through with it (because he is not PM) then those people will justify to themselves that while they are unhappy he said it, it doesn't matter anymore and they need to come together to beat the Tories in 2022 or whatever. But he keeps remainers on side who know he was in their corner. While he claims to others he was not, all options would be open, or whatever.
He'd developing into a bit more of a cynical, cunning, normal political leader, as much as he can anyway. He really is not different from other MPs as his worshipers think, except for being more Trump like than most of them.
Given the shameful, and widely condemned decision to offer succour to Orban by Tory MEPs, Corbyn's anti-Semitism issue won't shift votes.
Both major parties will be seen as disreputable as each other when it comes to anti-Semitism.
I doubt 5% of uk voters know who Orban is, and fewer care.
But the Labour antisemitism stuff has finally reached the masses. You can feel it. I doubt many voters are pro Israel but it’s the iffy pong of bigotry and extremism that they remember. And dislike.
Hence these polls.
I'm skeptical of that. I do agree that whatever one thinks on the Orban issue it won't have impacted on most people even if it should (though Labour would be wise to bring it up all the time) but I just don't see 'the masses' being rocked by the anti-semtism stuff. It definitely escalated over the summer, there were some people openly calling Corbyn personally antisemitic when very few even of his stern critics did so before, but it's not like they are falling massively behind, and I'm inclined to think that while it is wrong to think it certain that in a new GE campaign any Tory lead would evaporate again, if the impact on polling at the moment is just that the Tories have started to get more regular small leads, then not that many people are very put off, which means those who are are probably easier to entice back when push comes to shove.
I bet SeanT spends a lot of time with 'the masses' - I am sure he will know what they're thinking.
Fell down the biggest Corbyn trap ever laid if true.
Labour is dead as a do do with WWC if true.
"And the Labour leader will reluctantly back a second EU referendum if his party conference calls for it."
He can do so as reluctantly as he likes, until he has to action it he won't lose support.
Being in favour of a second referendum could lose him support among Labour Leave voters who see it as an attempt to thwart the result of the first referendum.
The latest YouGov has some interesting crosstabs. Soft Labour voters are actually more pro Remain than hard Labour voters.
Support for Jeremy Corbyn’s party has been growing for years in large urban areas but falling in the most working-class seats, according to a study of constituencies in England and Wales by the Fabian Society thinktank, which is affiliated to the Labour party.
Its research also revealed a “growing hostility” between Labour’s old and new core voters, creating a tension at the heart of the party, which has been riven by internal strife over its direction since 2015.
The report warns that the tensions are so acute and unresolved that they risk costing the party the next election.
Whilst Beto has got a lot of attention in Texas, the truth is he has been consistently behind in the polls. Meanwhile the Dem nominee for Tennessee Senate has actually had poll leads and has won state wide.
Although of course the partisan lean of TN is much more red then TX.
I don't see any evidence that a fresh general election, which would presumably include Theresa May campaigning, would result in a House of Commons any more decisive than the last.
The most likely result would be the Tories lost another 15-20 seats and it was even more hung.
Seems perfectly possible. But of course the real reason for a GE would not be to resolve anything, it would be to see the Tories lose seats. And it is pretty obviously that is the reason, and even if someone thinks that is a worthy goal in itself, Brexit resolution is what is needed.
Which is another reason I think a referendum, though still unlikely, has more chance - it would not resolve things perfectly either, I expect, but would at least be focused, depending on the questions, on the Brexit issue to some degree, whether an endorsement of no deal or switch to remain was being sought.
Sadly, he could win if this is true and it happens. Personally I reckon it’s spin, and even if it isn’t, it won’t happen (too many legal/political hurdles in the way of a 2nd vote)
He might back one and then make zero effort to campaign for one.
I am sure he can find a load of foreign graves to visit which will keep him too busy to campaign.....
I don't see any evidence that a fresh general election, which would presumably include Theresa May campaigning, would result in a House of Commons any more decisive than the last.
The most likely result would be the Tories lost another 15-20 seats and it was even more hung.
Yeah I think that's about the right ballpark. For me that would be a good result for the country as it would force parties to work together on big issues - and it would mean that Brexit would have to be about more than keeping the Conservative party membership sweet. Probably only way to strike back against polarisation of last few years, t show that there are grown ups who can work across party lines.
Fell down the biggest Corbyn trap ever laid if true.
Labour is dead as a do do with WWC if true.
"And the Labour leader will reluctantly back a second EU referendum if his party conference calls for it."
He can do so as reluctantly as he likes, until he has to action it he won't lose support.
Being in favour of a second referendum could lose him support among Labour Leave voters who see it as an attempt to thwart the result of the first referendum.
Very hard to call. At least 10-20% of the country is comprised of embittered Remainers who would do ANYTHING to reverse Brexit. A 2nd vote is their only hope. How many are already supporting Labour, how many are lib dems, reluctant Tories, don’t knows?
He could see a 10 point surge in the polls. Equally he could see a fall as the Labour Leavers desert him. Piquantly, the forces might Balance and he stays where he is, but now burdened with a policy he seriously dislikes.
Intriguing. I reckon it’s bollocks, he won’t agree, but we shall see.
Trouble is the voters in the southern and more affluent urban marginals are more dependable in turning out than those in small northern towns.
Sadly, he could win if this is true and it happens. Personally I reckon it’s spin, and even if it isn’t, it won’t happen (too many legal/political hurdles in the way of a 2nd vote)
He might back one and then make zero effort to campaign for one.
And later be hailed as a tireless saint who worked for whatever someone wants to claim.
I don't see any evidence that a fresh general election, which would presumably include Theresa May campaigning, would result in a House of Commons any more decisive than the last.
The most likely result would be the Tories lost another 15-20 seats and it was even more hung.
Seems perfectly possible. But of course the real reason for a GE would not be to resolve anything, it would be to see the Tories lose seats. And it is pretty obviously that is the reason, and even if someone thinks that is a worthy goal in itself, Brexit resolution is what is needed.
Which is another reason I think a referendum, though still unlikely, has more chance - it would not resolve things perfectly either, I expect, but would at least be focused, depending on the questions, on the Brexit issue to some degree, whether an endorsement of no deal or switch to remain was being sought.
Absolute school boy error if he agrees to that I probably won't even vote Labour next time.
Complete betrayal. Hope Mirror is wrong.
You wouldn't be able to vote Lib Dem or Green either though.
I do feel I am running out of parties to vote for.
In the past I have even voted Communist because I couldn't stand the pro-EU line that Labour had at the time. His history of euroscepticism was one of the reasons I voted Corbyn for leader, incidentally.
Bavarian election tomorrow - among other things will be a test of whether INSA (which always predicts strong AfD scores and is predicting 14% here) has better methodology than the others (mostly showing AfD on 10-11%). Also a test of whether the Left are underpolled - most polls show them falling just short of the 5% threshold. But the big story may be the loss of the CSU majority and a huge Green breakthrough, predicted at more than doubling their vote and eclipsing the SPD into 3rd place.
I don't see any evidence that a fresh general election, which would presumably include Theresa May campaigning, would result in a House of Commons any more decisive than the last.
The most likely result would be the Tories lost another 15-20 seats and it was even more hung.
I don't see any evidence that a fresh general election, which would presumably include Theresa May campaigning, would result in a House of Commons any more decisive than the last.
The most likely result would be the Tories lost another 15-20 seats and it was even more hung.
For me that would be a good result for the country as it would force parties to work together on big issues
It would be nice to think so, but surely utter deadlock would be more likely? We'd assume if they had no choice they'd have to work together on the big things, but I struggle to see that. When half the LD's voters jumped ship immediately upon coalition before even seeing where it went, and they are still hounded by that choice and seem like they will never do so again despite being a small party, I feel like the public won't reward whoever breaks first and offers to work together in the national interest.
The tensions in its coalition of supporters have been inflamed by Brexit. Senior figures are concerned that enthusiastic support for a soft Brexit or a second referendum, demanded by many of its supporters, could alienate some working-class communities that have continued to back it.....
.....The report also suggests that Labour’s surge in support from Remain backers has been overestimated. It states that the most remain-leaning seats started to move to Labour well before the referendum, suggesting demographic factors are more crucial than the EU vote
I don't see any evidence that a fresh general election, which would presumably include Theresa May campaigning, would result in a House of Commons any more decisive than the last.
The most likely result would be the Tories lost another 15-20 seats and it was even more hung.
Seems perfectly possible. But of course the real reason for a GE would not be to resolve anything, it would be to see the Tories lose seats. And it is pretty obviously that is the reason, and even if someone thinks that is a worthy goal in itself, Brexit resolution is what is needed.
Which is another reason I think a referendum, though still unlikely, has more chance - it would not resolve things perfectly either, I expect, but would at least be focused, depending on the questions, on the Brexit issue to some degree, whether an endorsement of no deal or switch to remain was being sought.
A second referendum solves nothing.
I said it was still unlikely. But if May cannot get a deal, and no deal won't pass the Commons then people will seek radical options to try to find another alternative, and that's where a referendum comes in - attempting to shunt the decision back on to the people.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
Not surprised that May aides are looking at an election. There is no way out. She is utterly totally fucked
Agreed. She has to go. Get a Leaver in to go for Canada plus or Norway lite and call the eu’s bluff (and it is a bluff) on a hard border in Ireland.
I think it has to be tried. Even if that does not work, no other options will be countenanced by the government, nor will the government fall, until it has exhausted those options. Wasting time on trying Chequers again is pointless, so even if the execrable other options for leader much be tried, it would at least be trying for a deal which might be possible.
And if that still fails, well, the previously unthinkable may become thinkable. But not before it fails.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
These Southern Jessies don't know Jack Shit about the North.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
Bavarian election tomorrow - among other things will be a test of whether INSA (which always predicts strong AfD scores and is predicting 14% here) has better methodology than the others (mostly showing AfD on 10-11%). Also a test of whether the Left are underpolled - most polls show them falling just short of the 5% threshold. But the big story may be the loss of the CSU majority and a huge Green breakthrough, predicted at more than doubling their vote and eclipsing the SPD into 3rd place.
Quoting myself FPT as I'd quite like to know what Nick (or anyone else!) thinks is in store for SPD nationally. They're obviously not having a good time of it at the moment, and for different kinds of leftie, liberal or working-class people there are plenty of other options available at the moment.
Not a good poll for Merkel. 28%-18% is the closest it's been for a long time.
I wonder how low the floor support is for the SPD. It could be very low, given the spectrum of alternative left-wing parties available, and that some working-class votes could head rightwards.
It would not be altogether surprising to see a poll in which the SPD place fourth - they are only 2 percentage points away from it in this poll, and looking at recent results from several pollsters they have on several occasions been 1pp to 3pp away. It is not even beyond the bounds of possibility, if the FDP could pull themselves up to 13-14% or so (admittedly, this would need them to go back to highs last seen in 2009) and the SDP lost some votes to the Linke, that they could slip as far as sixth. I'm sure that it won't be that bad come the next election, but there is the potential for some seriously humiliating polling in between.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
And Wales
Wales was pretty close to the UK result. 52.5 to 47.5%.
Given the shameful, and widely condemned decision to offer succour to Orban by Tory MEPs, Corbyn's anti-Semitism issue won't shift votes.
Both major parties will be seen as disreputable as each other when it comes to anti-Semitism.
I doubt 5% of uk voters know who Orban is, and fewer care.
But the Labour antisemitism stuff has finally reached the masses. You can feel it. I doubt many voters are pro Israel but it’s the iffy pong of bigotry and extremism that they remember. And dislike.
Hence these polls.
I'm skeptical of that. I do agree that whatever one thinks on the Orban issue it won't have impacted on most people even if it should (though Labour would be wise to bring it up all the time) but I just don't see 'the masses' being rocked by the anti-semtism stuff. It definitely escalated over the summer, there were some people openly calling Corbyn personally antisemitic when very few even of his stern critics did so before, but it's not like they are falling massively behind, and I'm inclined to think that while it is wrong to think it certain that in a new GE campaign any Tory lead would evaporate again, if the impact on polling at the moment is just that the Tories have started to get more regular small leads, then not that many people are very put off, which means those who are are probably easier to entice back when push comes to shove.
I think the recent small Tory lead is that the Tories have attracted back some Kippers and Labour have lost a small share to the LibDems. I suspect it is much more to do with Brexit positioning and nothing at all to do with anti-semitism.
I don't see any evidence that a fresh general election, which would presumably include Theresa May campaigning, would result in a House of Commons any more decisive than the last.
The most likely result would be the Tories lost another 15-20 seats and it was even more hung.
For me that would be a good result for the country as it would force parties to work together on big issues
It would be nice to think so, but surely utter deadlock would be more likely? We'd assume if they had no choice they'd have to work together on the big things, but I struggle to see that. When half the LD's voters jumped ship immediately upon coalition before even seeing where it went, and they are still hounded by that choice and seem like they will never do so again despite being a small party, I feel like the public won't reward whoever breaks first and offers to work together in the national interest.
Yeah I know that all too well - have had to defend my (LD) council seat in 2014 and 2016 so no illusions about how voters see compromise. But bluntly with the sort of numbers we are talking about, there would be absolutely no other option, so it would have to happen. If they couldn't countenance working together, would be a loose confidence and supply, but the DUP feel in government with great influence, even though it's meant to be a C&S arrangement.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
And Wales
Wales was pretty close to the UK result. 52.5 to 47.5%.
As was the South East and the South West. Tbf the North East and Yorkshire & Humberside (unsuprisingly) were more pro-Leave, but it was definitely not a South v. North (of England) split.
Given the shameful, and widely condemned decision to offer succour to Orban by Tory MEPs, Corbyn's anti-Semitism issue won't shift votes.
Both major parties will be seen as disreputable as each other when it comes to anti-Semitism.
I doubt 5% of uk voters know who Orban is, and fewer care.
But the Labour antisemitism stuff has finally reached the masses. You can feel it. I doubt many voters are pro Israel but it’s the iffy pong of bigotry and extremism that they remember. And dislike.
Hence these polls.
I'm skeptical of that. I do agree that whatever one thinks on the Orban issue it won't have impacted on most people even if it should (though Labour would be wise to bring it up all the time) but I just don't see 'the masses' being rocked by the anti-semtism stuff. It definitely escalated over the summer, there were some people openly calling Corbyn personally antisemitic when very few even of his stern critics did so before, but it's not like they are falling massively behind, and I'm inclined to think that while it is wrong to think it certain that in a new GE campaign any Tory lead would evaporate again, if the impact on polling at the moment is just that the Tories have started to get more regular small leads, then not that many people are very put off, which means those who are are probably easier to entice back when push comes to shove.
I think the recent small Tory lead is that the Tories have attracted back some Kippers and Labour have lost a small share to the LibDems. I suspect it is much more to do with Brexit positioning and nothing at all to do with anti-semitism.
I think that is plausible.
Speaking of the LDs, whatever did happen to the plan about new leadership rules, I genuinely missed what the outcome was?
Given the shameful, and widely condemned decision to offer succour to Orban by Tory MEPs, Corbyn's anti-Semitism issue won't shift votes.
Both major parties will be seen as disreputable as each other when it comes to anti-Semitism.
I doubt 5% of uk voters know who Orban is, and fewer care.
But the Labour antisemitism stuff has finally reached the masses. You can feel it. I doubt many voters are pro Israel but it’s the iffy pong of bigotry and extremism that they remember. And dislike.
Hence these polls.
I'm skeptical of that. I do agree that whatever one thinks on the Orban issue it won't have impacted on most people even if it should (though Labour would be wise to bring it up all the time) but I just don't see 'the masses' being rocked by the anti-semtism stuff. It definitely escalated over the summer, there were some people openly calling Corbyn personally antisemitic when very few even of his stern critics did so before, but it's not like they are falling massively behind, and I'm inclined to think that while it is wrong to think it certain that in a new GE campaign any Tory lead would evaporate again, if the impact on polling at the moment is just that the Tories have started to get more regular small leads, then not that many people are very put off, which means those who are are probably easier to entice back when push comes to shove.
I think the recent small Tory lead is that the Tories have attracted back some Kippers and Labour have lost a small share to the LibDems. I suspect it is much more to do with Brexit positioning and nothing at all to do with anti-semitism.
What's happened recently for the Tories to win back Kippers? It's all been about the Chequers betrayal. If anything they might have won back a few Remain voters.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
These Southern Jessies don't know Jack Shit about the North.
Northern Softies complaining about a lack of first class on a relatively short train ride from Sheffielf to Manchester?
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
And Wales
Wales was pretty close to the UK result. 52.5 to 47.5%.
As was the South East and the South West. Tbf the North East and Yorkshire & Humberside (unsuprisingly) were more pro-Leave, but it was definitely not a South v. North (of England) split.
The East of England was more Leavey than either the Northeast or Northwest. Which is not what most people seem to assume.
It would not be altogether surprising to see a poll in which the SPD place fourth - they are only 2 percentage points away from it in this poll, and looking at recent results from several pollsters they have on several occasions been 1pp to 3pp away. It is not even beyond the bounds of possibility, if the FDP could pull themselves up to 13-14% or so (admittedly, this would need them to go back to highs last seen in 2009) and the SDP lost some votes to the Linke, that they could slip as far as sixth. I'm sure that it won't be that bad come the next election, but there is the potential for some seriously humiliating polling in between.
I think that's right. There are very few cases of a junior party in a coalition not coming to regret it, and the USP of the SPD is not obvious. Some of that would be cured by a spell in opposition. The Greens are an odd mixture, a bit like British LibDems - some hard left, some managerial centrists: it's actually possible to imagine a CDU-Green coalition, but that would benefit SPD and Linke no end.
Whether the Aufstehen ovement will stand as a separate party is an interesting joker in the pack. The Linke are not really all radical Corbynite insurgents - they have too many members who look back on the GDR with fond memories, don't hold with all this grass roots democracy stuff and are ready for boring compromises. Aufstehen is much more the Corbynite thing, though they are much less pro-immigration.
Point is that although both Tory and Labour front/back bench plotters are thinking "how do we profit from this" and are wargamimg away, away from internecine warfare and party political shenanigans we actually need something to change.
Lets assume that the May aides scheme comes off - parliament votes for an early general election
What are the Tory front bench campaigning for? The ERG? What are the Labour front bench campaigning for? The PLP? What is Nigel Farage - having stepped back in to be "life president" of UKIP campaigning for?
Point is that although both Tory and Labour front/back bench plotters are thinking "how do we profit from this" and are wargamimg away, away from internecine warfare and party political shenanigans we actually need something to change.
Lets assume that the May aides scheme comes off - parliament votes for an early general election
What are the Tory front bench campaigning for? The ERG? What are the Labour front bench campaigning for? The PLP? What is Nigel Farage - having stepped back in to be "life president" of UKIP campaigning for?
Well quite. I would find it baffling to think the leaderships, even if they state otherwise, would seriously want a GE, when I have not much idea what single idea either could rally behind and keep all their MPs behind.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
Silly analysis. The massive Brexit vote - 17.4m votes, the largest mandate in British political history - was won everywhere. Remember that Remain, according to Dave Cameron and Mr Nabavi, seriously expected to win by about 70/30. Their misjudgment was epochal and enormous.
So, as I say, the unexpected Leave vote came from EVERYWHERE. 40% of Londoners. A majority of women. Milliions of young people, 40% of Scots. The way Remainers talk, Leave was won by a small group of sad pensioners in Nuneaton.
No. A nation voted for Brexit it in unprecedented numbers. Woe betide the politician that frustrates this mandate.
Indeed. I do not disagree with you. My point was that it was not a particularly Northern thing as many seem to assume. Therefore implicitly it came from everywhere. As much from Guildford as St. Helens or Blyth.
I think that's right. There are very few cases of a junior party in a coalition not coming to regret it, and the USP of the SPD is not obvious. Some of that would be cured by a spell in opposition. The Greens are an odd mixture, a bit like British LibDems - some hard left, some managerial centrists: it's actually possible to imagine a CDU-Green coalition, but that would benefit SPD and Linke no end.
Whether the Aufstehen ovement will stand as a separate party is an interesting joker in the pack. The Linke are not really all radical Corbynite insurgents - they have too many members who look back on the GDR with fond memories, don't hold with all this grass roots democracy stuff and are ready for boring compromises. Aufstehen is much more the Corbynite thing, though they are much less pro-immigration.
It interests me that a split of the Linke is now potentially on the cards, maybe even with both groupings capable of hitting the 5% threshold too, but as far as I can see it isn't really along the same lines of the PDS/WASG that merged to form the party in the first place?
And yes, in my "might even fall as far as fifth/sixth" prediction for the SPD, that was assuming continuing coalition and consequent vote erosion. I wondered if you thought there was a core group of SPD voters who'd provide a floor, but like you I'm struggling to see their USP in a crowded field.
Point is that although both Tory and Labour front/back bench plotters are thinking "how do we profit from this" and are wargamimg away, away from internecine warfare and party political shenanigans we actually need something to change.
Lets assume that the May aides scheme comes off - parliament votes for an early general election
What are the Tory front bench campaigning for? The ERG? What are the Labour front bench campaigning for? The PLP? What is Nigel Farage - having stepped back in to be "life president" of UKIP campaigning for?
Total chaos - more so than now if that is possible
Point is that although both Tory and Labour front/back bench plotters are thinking "how do we profit from this" and are wargamimg away, away from internecine warfare and party political shenanigans we actually need something to change.
Lets assume that the May aides scheme comes off - parliament votes for an early general election
What are the Tory front bench campaigning for? The ERG? What are the Labour front bench campaigning for? The PLP? What is Nigel Farage - having stepped back in to be "life president" of UKIP campaigning for?
Well quite. I would find it baffling to think the leaderships, even if they state otherwise, would seriously want a GE, when I have not much idea what single idea either could rally behind and keep all their MPs behind.
Let's get real. There will be a GE only if either of the following takes place:
1. Theresa May and the Tory party want a GE. 2. There are sufficient Tory Mps willing to vote for Corbyn's VONC.
Given the shameful, and widely condemned decision to offer succour to Orban by Tory MEPs, Corbyn's anti-Semitism issue won't shift votes.
Both major parties will be seen as disreputable as each other when it comes to anti-Semitism.
I doubt 5% of uk voters know who Orban is, and fewer care.
But the Labour antisemitism stuff has finally reached the masses. You can feel it. I doubt many voters are pro Israel but it’s the iffy pong of bigotry and extremism that they remember. And dislike.
Hence these polls.
I'm skeptical of that. I do agree that whatever one thinks on the Orban issue it won't have impacted on most people even if it should (though Labour would be wise to bring it up all the time) but I just don't see 'the masses' being rocked by the anti-semtism stuff. It definitely escalated over the summer, there were some people openly calling Corbyn personally antisemitic when very few even of his stern critics did so before, but it's not like they are falling massively behind, and I'm inclined to think that while it is wrong to think it certain that in a new GE campaign any Tory lead would evaporate again, if the impact on polling at the moment is just that the Tories have started to get more regular small leads, then not that many people are very put off, which means those who are are probably easier to entice back when push comes to shove.
I think the recent small Tory lead is that the Tories have attracted back some Kippers and Labour have lost a small share to the LibDems. I suspect it is much more to do with Brexit positioning and nothing at all to do with anti-semitism.
What's happened recently for the Tories to win back Kippers? It's all been about the Chequers betrayal. If anything they might have won back a few Remain voters.
I'm just looking at the moving average of the polls. Over the last month UKIP has slipped 0.6% to 4.9%, Tories have stayed on 39%, Labour has slipped 0.9% to 38% and LibDems have gained 1.0% to 9.5%.
According to Electoral Calculus that results in:
Con 306 (+10 compared with a month ago) Lab 265 (-11) LD 17 (+1) UKIP 0 Green 1 PC 3 SNP 40 NI 18
It can't really be a surprise that May got whacked by a wholly unexpected EU drive-by when, instead of sounding out what was going on in the EU, her personal clown troupe were playing war games.
If Theresa May were a steeplechaser, they would be putting the screens out on the course - to protect the squeamish public from seeing the inevitable bolt...
I suspect this story is not about Tory aides preparing for a Tory inspired snap general election but wargaming a general election forced by Labour.
Labour can’t force an election without help. War gaming such an election requires knowledge of where that help is coming from. An election forced on the Conservatives would almost by definition involve a Conservative party that was irretrievably divided, given the strength of mutual support between the headbanging Conservative right and the DUP.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
Silly analysis. The massive Brexit vote - 17.4m votes, the largest mandate in British political history - was won everywhere. Remember that Remain, according to Dave Cameron and Mr Nabavi, seriously expected to win by about 70/30. Their misjudgment was epochal and enormous.
So, as I say, the unexpected Leave vote came from EVERYWHERE. 40% of Londoners. A majority of women. Milliions of young people, 40% of Scots. The way Remainers talk, Leave was won by a small group of sad pensioners in Nuneaton.
No. A nation voted for Brexit it in unprecedented numbers. Woe betide the politician that frustrates this mandate.
Indeed. I do not disagree with you. My point was that it was not a particularly Northern thing as many seem to assume. Therefore implicitly it came from everywhere. As much from Guildford as St. Helens or Blyth.
Indeed. What struck me about the entire campaign was the surprising people I met, before the vote, who came out for Leave. An aristo friend. The Chinese wife of one of my best friends. A billionaire. A naturalized French dude. My 24 year old niece.
It was a nationwide thing.
I think Anne Applebaum puts her finger on something in this piece:
From my point of view, the Dreyfus affair is most interesting because it was sparked by a single cause célèbre. Just one court case—one disputed trial—plunged an entire country into an angry debate, creating unresolvable divisions between people who had previously not known that they disagreed with one another. But this shows that vastly different understandings of what is meant by “France” were already there, waiting to be discovered.
Given the shameful, and widely condemned decision to offer succour to Orban by Tory MEPs, Corbyn's anti-Semitism issue won't shift votes.
Both major parties will be seen as disreputable as each other when it comes to anti-Semitism.
I doubt 5% of uk voters know who Orban is, and fewer care.
But the Labour antisemitism stuff has finally reached the masses. You can feel it. I doubt many voters are pro Israel but it’s the iffy pong of bigotry and extremism that they remember. And dislike.
Hence these polls.
I'm skeptical of that. I do agree that whatever one thinks on the Orban issue it won't have impacted on most people even if it should (though Labour would be wise to bring it up all the time) but I just don't see 'the masses' being rocked by the anti-semtism stuff. It definitely escalated over the summer, there were some people openly calling Corbyn personally antisemitic when very few even of his stern critics did so before, but it's not like they are falling massively behind, and I'm inclined to think that while it is wrong to think it certain that in a new GE campaign any Tory lead would evaporate again, if the impact on polling at the moment is just that the Tories have started to get more regular small leads, then not that many people are very put off, which means those who are are probably easier to entice back when push comes to shove.
I think the recent small Tory lead is that the Tories have attracted back some Kippers and Labour have lost a small share to the LibDems. I suspect it is much more to do with Brexit positioning and nothing at all to do with anti-semitism.
What's happened recently for the Tories to win back Kippers? It's all been about the Chequers betrayal. If anything they might have won back a few Remain voters.
I'm just looking at the moving average of the polls. Over the last month UKIP has slipped 0.6% to 4.9%, Tories have stayed on 39%, Labour has slipped 0.9% to 38% and LibDems have gained 1.0% to 9.5%.
According to Electoral Calculus that results in:
Con 306 (+10 compared with a month ago) Lab 265 (-11) LD 17 (+1) UKIP 0 Green 1 PC 3 SNP 40 NI 18
Tories 20 short of an overall majority.
But UKIP will not field more than a handful of candidates. That UKIP 4.9% is largely up for grabs. Tories much nearer to a majority.
It interests me that a split of the Linke is now potentially on the cards, maybe even with both groupings capable of hitting the 5% threshold too, but as far as I can see it isn't really along the same lines of the PDS/WASG that merged to form the party in the first place?
And yes, in my "might even fall as far as fifth/sixth" prediction for the SPD, that was assuming continuing coalition and consequent vote erosion. I wondered if you thought there was a core group of SPD voters who'd provide a floor, but like you I'm struggling to see their USP in a crowded field.
Yes, I agree re the PDS/WASG, though the latter were small leftist groups like the SWP in Britain, while Aufstehen looks quite formidable if they actually decide to stand.
Trade union support for the SPD and long tradition (quite important in Germany) should stop them totally melting down, but I could see them sinking to say 15%.
It interests me that a split of the Linke is now potentially on the cards, maybe even with both groupings capable of hitting the 5% threshold too, but as far as I can see it isn't really along the same lines of the PDS/WASG that merged to form the party in the first place?
And yes, in my "might even fall as far as fifth/sixth" prediction for the SPD, that was assuming continuing coalition and consequent vote erosion. I wondered if you thought there was a core group of SPD voters who'd provide a floor, but like you I'm struggling to see their USP in a crowded field.
Yes, I agree re the PDS/WASG, though the latter were small leftist groups like the SWP in Britain, while Aufstehen looks quite formidable if they actually decide to stand.
Trade union support for the SPD and long tradition (quite important in Germany) should stop them totally melting down, but I could see them sinking to say 15%.
Cheers Nick. I do wonder, if the SPD really sunk like a stone electorally, or perhaps more importantly if they found themselves voting through some uncomfortable legislation, the unions might jump ship - has there ever been gossip of them forming a new party (as there was very occasionally speculation over here, fruitlessly, under Blair?) or any chance of a common cause with one of the other parties? I can't see a new natural berth for them, given that the SPD is the party with the social-democratic, labour tradition, but I haven't read the German press for years.
Given the shameful, and widely condemned decision to offer succour to Orban by Tory MEPs, Corbyn's anti-Semitism issue won't shift votes.
Both major parties will be seen as disreputable as each other when it comes to anti-Semitism.
I doubt 5% of uk voters know who Orban is, and fewer care.
But the Labour antisemitism stuff has finally reached the masses. You can feel it. I doubt many voters are pro Israel but it’s the iffy pong of bigotry and extremism that they remember. And dislike.
Hence these polls.
I'm skeptical of that. I do agree that whatever one thinks on the Orban issue it won't have impacted on most people even if it should (though Labour would be wise to bring it up all the time) but I just don't see 'the masses' being rocked by the anti-semtism stuff. It definitely escalated over the summer, there were some people openly calling Corbyn personally antisemitic when very few even of his stern critics did so before, but it's not like they are falling massively behind, and I'm inclined to think that while it is wrong to think it certain that in a new GE campaign any Tory lead would evaporate again, if the impact on polling at the moment is just that the Tories have started to get more regular small leads, then not that many people are very put off, which means those who are are probably easier to entice back when push comes to shove.
I think the recent small Tory lead is that the Tories have attracted back some Kippers and Labour have lost a small share to the LibDems. I suspect it is much more to do with Brexit positioning and nothing at all to do with anti-semitism.
What's happened recently for the Tories to win back Kippers? It's all been about the Chequers betrayal. If anything they might have won back a few Remain voters.
I'm just looking at the moving average of the polls. Over the last month UKIP has slipped 0.6% to 4.9%, Tories have stayed on 39%, Labour has slipped 0.9% to 38% and LibDems have gained 1.0% to 9.5%.
According to Electoral Calculus that results in:
Con 306 (+10 compared with a month ago) Lab 265 (-11) LD 17 (+1) UKIP 0 Green 1 PC 3 SNP 40 NI 18
Tories 20 short of an overall majority.
But UKIP will not field more than a handful of candidates. That UKIP 4.9% is largely up for grabs. Tories much nearer to a majority.
Good point. Could be. How do you think the 4.9% will break? Mainly to Tory in Tory seats, Lab in Lab seats, with most frustrated Kippers not voting?
...I'm just looking at the moving average of the polls...
Don't lump together the pollsters. Do the moving average for pollster x, the moving average for pollster y, the moving average for pollster z, and so on. Otherwise you'll confuse house effects for movement.
Sorry. I'm reviewing a paper, so I'm in "pedantic grumpy shit" mode.
I don't see any evidence that a fresh general election, which would presumably include Theresa May campaigning, would result in a House of Commons any more decisive than the last.
The most likely result would be the Tories lost another 15-20 seats and it was even more hung.
Seems perfectly possible. But of course the real reason for a GE would not be to resolve anything, it would be to see the Tories lose seats. And it is pretty obviously that is the reason, and even if someone thinks that is a worthy goal in itself, Brexit resolution is what is needed.
Which is another reason I think a referendum, though still unlikely, has more chance - it would not resolve things perfectly either, I expect, but would at least be focused, depending on the questions, on the Brexit issue to some degree, whether an endorsement of no deal or switch to remain was being sought.
A second referendum solves nothing.
In our current situation, everything solves nothing.
Brexit does not solve the countries issues, and seriously pisses off about half the country, and a majority of those in 2 of the home nations.
Rescinding it pisses off the other half. There is no middle position.
I think Anne Applebaum puts her finger on something in this piece:
From my point of view, the Dreyfus affair is most interesting because it was sparked by a single cause célèbre. Just one court case—one disputed trial—plunged an entire country into an angry debate, creating unresolvable divisions between people who had previously not known that they disagreed with one another. But this shows that vastly different understandings of what is meant by “France” were already there, waiting to be discovered.
I don't see any evidence that a fresh general election, which would presumably include Theresa May campaigning, would result in a House of Commons any more decisive than the last.
The most likely result would be the Tories lost another 15-20 seats and it was even more hung.
Seems perfectly possible. But of course the real reason for a GE would not be to resolve anything, it would be to see the Tories lose seats. And it is pretty obviously that is the reason, and even if someone thinks that is a worthy goal in itself, Brexit resolution is what is needed.
Which is another reason I think a referendum, though still unlikely, has more chance - it would not resolve things perfectly either, I expect, but would at least be focused, depending on the questions, on the Brexit issue to some degree, whether an endorsement of no deal or switch to remain was being sought.
A second referendum solves nothing.
In our current situation, everything solves nothing.
Brexit does not solve the countries issues, and seriously pisses off about half the country, and a majority of those in 2 of the home nations.
Rescinding it pisses off the other half. There is no middle position.
Fine, so long as people don't act like their preferred option will indeed solve everything. If they think it will create the fewest additional problems then we can assess that at least I guess. But there are those, for instance, who pretend it will all be easy to remain and that would be that - they at least learned something from the less honest Leave campaigners.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
Silly analysis. The massive Brexit vote - 17.4m votes, the largest mandate in British political history - was won everywhere. Remember that Remain, according to Dave Cameron and Mr Nabavi, seriously expected to win by about 70/30. Their misjudgment was epochal and enormous.
So, as I say, the unexpected Leave vote came from EVERYWHERE. 40% of Londoners. A majority of women. Milliions of young people, 40% of Scots. The way Remainers talk, Leave was won by a small group of sad pensioners in Nuneaton.
No. A nation voted for Brexit it in unprecedented numbers. Woe betide the politician that frustrates this mandate.
Indeed. I do not disagree with you. My point was that it was not a particularly Northern thing as many seem to assume. Therefore implicitly it came from everywhere. As much from Guildford as St. Helens or Blyth.
Indeed. What struck me about the entire campaign was the surprising people I met, before the vote, who came out for Leave. An aristo friend. The Chinese wife of one of my best friends. A billionaire. A naturalized French dude. My 24 year old niece.
It was a nationwide thing.
Sean would those people still vote leave again if another referendum was called ?
If Con really do think an election is imminent they'll remove Theresa and install Boris as they can't possibly risk unleashing The Maybot on the country again.
...I'm just looking at the moving average of the polls...
Don't lump together the pollsters. Do the moving average for pollster x, the moving average for pollster y, the moving average for pollster z, and so on. Otherwise you'll confuse house effects for movement.
Sorry. I'm reviewing a paper, so I'm in "pedantic grumpy shit" mode.
I use an exponential moving average with a decay factor of 10% so all the pollsters are represented to varying degrees. The problem of doing moving averages for each pollster separately as you suggest is that a) you have much fewer recent data points and b) which pollster do you use?
I don't see any evidence that a fresh general election, which would presumably include Theresa May campaigning, would result in a House of Commons any more decisive than the last.
The most likely result would be the Tories lost another 15-20 seats and it was even more hung.
Seems perfectly possible. But of course the real reason for a GE would not be to resolve anything, it would be to see the Tories lose seats. And it is pretty obviously that is the reason, and even if someone thinks that is a worthy goal in itself, Brexit resolution is what is needed.
Which is another reason I think a referendum, though still unlikely, has more chance - it would not resolve things perfectly either, I expect, but would at least be focused, depending on the questions, on the Brexit issue to some degree, whether an endorsement of no deal or switch to remain was being sought.
A second referendum solves nothing.
In our current situation, everything solves nothing.
Brexit does not solve the countries issues, and seriously pisses off about half the country, and a majority of those in 2 of the home nations.
Rescinding it pisses off the other half. There is no middle position.
EEA really was the middle way. Out of the EU but retain 100% of the economic benefits. May’s obsession with immigration made free movement a red line. It was foolish to rule it out at the beginning. She should have used the opportunity to redefine how we award in and out of work benefits to remove/reform the aspects that act as pulls to disproportionate numbers of migrants.
Somehow EEA became the option nobody wanted, despite it being the compromise that would have been easy to sell. Hard brexiteers wanted nothing to do with the EU whatsoever, and remainers were quite keen to trash the idea of an EEA in the hope of overturning the actual result.
It became difficult to distinguish between those who desired a soft Brexit and those who desired to overturn the result. The debate became, you are either for Brexit or against. Hence the traitors etc.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
Silly analysis. The massive Brexit vote - 17.4m votes, the largest mandate in British political history - was won everywhere. Remember that Remain, according to Dave Cameron and Mr Nabavi, seriously expected to win by about 70/30. Their misjudgment was epochal and enormous.
So, as I say, the unexpected Leave vote came from EVERYWHERE. 40% of Londoners. A majority of women. Milliions of young people, 40% of Scots. The way Remainers talk, Leave was won by a small group of sad pensioners in Nuneaton.
No. A nation voted for Brexit it in unprecedented numbers. Woe betide the politician that frustrates this mandate.
Indeed. I do not disagree with you. My point was that it was not a particularly Northern thing as many seem to assume. Therefore implicitly it came from everywhere. As much from Guildford as St. Helens or Blyth.
Indeed. What struck me about the entire campaign was the surprising people I met, before the vote, who came out for Leave. An aristo friend. The Chinese wife of one of my best friends. A billionaire. A naturalized French dude. My 24 year old niece.
It was a nationwide thing.
I think Anne Applebaum puts her finger on something in this piece:
From my point of view, the Dreyfus affair is most interesting because it was sparked by a single cause célèbre. Just one court case—one disputed trial—plunged an entire country into an angry debate, creating unresolvable divisions between people who had previously not known that they disagreed with one another. But this shows that vastly different understandings of what is meant by “France” were already there, waiting to be discovered.
I don't see any evidence that a fresh general election, which would presumably include Theresa May campaigning, would result in a House of Commons any more decisive than the last.
The most likely result would be the Tories lost another 15-20 seats and it was even more hung.
Seems perfectly possible. But of course the real reason for a GE would not be to resolve anything, it would be to see the Tories lose seats. And it is pretty obviously that is the reason, and even if someone thinks that is a worthy goal in itself, Brexit resolution is what is needed.
Which is another reason I think a referendum, though still unlikely, has more chance - it would not resolve things perfectly either, I expect, but would at least be focused, depending on the questions, on the Brexit issue to some degree, whether an endorsement of no deal or switch to remain was being sought.
A second referendum solves nothing.
In our current situation, everything solves nothing.
Brexit does not solve the countries issues, and seriously pisses off about half the country, and a majority of those in 2 of the home nations.
Rescinding it pisses off the other half. There is no middle position.
EEA really was the middle way. Out of the EU but retain 100% of the economic benefits. May’s obsession with immigration made free movement a red line. It was foolish to rule it out at the beginning. She should have used the opportunity to redefine how we award in and out of work benefits to remove/reform the aspects that act as pulls to disproportionate numbers of migrants.
Somehow EEA became the option nobody wanted, despite it being the compromise that would have been easy to sell. Hard brexiteers wanted nothing to do with the EU whatsoever, and remainers were quite keen to trash the idea of an EEA in the hope of overturning the actual result.
It became difficult to distinguish between those who desired a soft Brexit and those who desired to overturn the result. The debate became, you are either for Brexit or against. Hence the traitors etc.
I agree that EEA was the only option that could have squared the decision, but May was wanting the Tyranny of the majority.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
Silly analysis. The massive Brexit vote - 17.4m votes, the largest mandate in British political history - was won everywhere. Remember that Remain, according to Dave Cameron and Mr Nabavi, seriously expected to win by about 70/30. Their misjudgment was epochal and enormous.
So, as I say, the unexpected Leave vote came from EVERYWHERE. 40% of Londoners. A majority of women. Milliions of young people, 40% of Scots. The way Remainers talk, Leave was won by a small group of sad pensioners in Nuneaton.
No. A nation voted for Brexit it in unprecedented numbers. Woe betide the politician that frustrates this mandate.
Indeed. I do not disagree with you. My point was that it was not a particularly Northern thing as many seem to assume. Therefore implicitly it came from everywhere. As much from Guildford as St. Helens or Blyth.
Indeed. What struck me about the entire campaign was the surprising people I met, before the vote, who came out for Leave. An aristo friend. The Chinese wife of one of my best friends. A billionaire. A naturalized French dude. My 24 year old niece.
It was a nationwide thing.
Sean would those people still vote leave again if another referendum was called ?
I am not Sean, but my estimate would be "yes, they would".
The only people who might change their mind would be those who voted Leave in order to get more money and a better deal. But those who voted on sovereignity, or immigration, or any of the other grounds, have no reason to change their vote and in some cases will have those reasons reinforced. I'm not expecting a Remain win in a putative second referendum.
It's an opportune time to point out what I wrote here the weekend after the vote. A second referendum is desirable, but a second referendum requires a second deal. A second deal requires the UK to seek one (to stay) and the EU to offer one. The UK has not sought a better deal to stay and the EU has not offered one. No second deal, no win in a second referendum.
I suspect this story is not about Tory aides preparing for a Tory inspired snap general election but wargaming a general election forced by Labour.
Seriously how can Labour do that? It's not as if Con or DUP MPs will support a Labour VONC.
It only takes a handful of seriously pissed MPs.
I would imagine that any Tory MP voting against the government would not be the Tory candidate at the ensuing general election? So Turkeys voting for Christmas. Not going to happen.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
Silly analysis. The massive Brexit vote - 17.4m votes, the largest mandate in British political history - was won everywhere. Remember that Remain, according to Dave Cameron and Mr Nabavi, seriously expected to win by about 70/30. Their misjudgment was epochal and enormous.
So, as I say, the unexpected Leave vote came from EVERYWHERE. 40% of Londoners. A majority of women. Milliions of young people, 40% of Scots. The way Remainers talk, Leave was won by a small group of sad pensioners in Nuneaton.
No. A nation voted for Brexit it in unprecedented numbers. Woe betide the politician that frustrates this mandate.
Indeed. I do not disagree with you. My point was that it was not a particularly Northern thing as many seem to assume. Therefore implicitly it came from everywhere. As much from Guildford as St. Helens or Blyth.
Indeed. What struck me about the entire campaign was the surprising people I met, before the vote, who came out for Leave. An aristo friend. The Chinese wife of one of my best friends. A billionaire. A naturalized French dude. My 24 year old niece.
It was a nationwide thing.
Sean would those people still vote leave again if another referendum was called ?
I am not Sean, but my estimate would be "yes, they would".
The only people who might change their mind would be those who voted Leave in order to get more money and a better deal. But those who voted on sovereignity, or immigration, or any of the other grounds, have no reason to change their vote and in some cases will have those reasons reinforced. I'm not expecting a Remain win in a putative second referendum.
It's an opportune time to point out what I wrote here the weekend after the vote. A second referendum is desirable, but a second referendum requires a second deal. A second deal requires the UK to seek one (to stay) and the EU to offer one. The UK has not sought a better deal to stay and the EU has not offered one. No second deal, no win in a second referendum.
I know some that have changed their minds, including some naturalised Phillipino nurses who have seen their remittences devalued, and my mother in law who has seen the effect on her grandchildren. There is some churn the other way too.
Anything could happen in a second referendum. It is even possible that there could be a less indecisive outcome.
I had a quick look. I'm not sure I'm convinced. The author starts off with a central framework about existential dread, etc, then notes many Remainer anecdotes, then applies that framework to them. It's a fair point (and it might even be true), but it's not an argument. It's like saying Leavers were motivated by immigration: some were, but not all were, and one has to look at the mix.
Am increasingly annoyed with the oft-parroted, North equals Leave mantra. The 2 most Leavey regions are the East and West Midlands. The Brexit vote was won there.
Silly analysis. The massive Brexit vote - 17.4m votes, the largest mandate in British political history - was won everywhere. Remember that Remain, according to Dave Cameron and Mr Nabavi, seriously expected to win by about 70/30. Their misjudgment was epochal and enormous.
So, as I say, the unexpected Leave vote came from EVERYWHERE. 40% of Londoners. A majority of women. Milliions of young people, 40% of Scots. The way Remainers talk, Leave was won by a small group of sad pensioners in Nuneaton.
No. A nation voted for Brexit it in unprecedented numbers. Woe betide the politician that frustrates this mandate.
Indeed. I do not disagree with you. My point was that it was not a particularly Northern thing as many seem to assume. Therefore implicitly it came from everywhere. As much from Guildford as St. Helens or Blyth.
Indeed. What struck me about the entire campaign was the surprising people I met, before the vote, who came out for Leave. An aristo friend. The Chinese wife of one of my best friends. A billionaire. A naturalized French dude. My 24 year old niece.
It was a nationwide thing.
Sean would those people still vote leave again if another referendum was called ?
I am not Sean, but my estimate would be "yes, they would".
The only people who might change their mind would be those who voted Leave in order to get more money and a better deal. But those who voted on sovereignity, or immigration, or any of the other grounds, have no reason to change their vote and in some cases will have those reasons reinforced. I'm not expecting a Remain win in a putative second referendum.
It's an opportune time to point out what I wrote here the weekend after the vote. A second referendum is desirable, but a second referendum requires a second deal. A second deal requires the UK to seek one (to stay) and the EU to offer one. The UK has not sought a better deal to stay and the EU has not offered one. No second deal, no win in a second referendum.
The most likely scenario for a second referendum is No Deal, which Remain would probably win.
Otherwise the most likely outcome is a transition period from March with FTA talks kicked into the transition, rendering a second referendum pointless
...I'm just looking at the moving average of the polls...
Don't lump together the pollsters. Do the moving average for pollster x, the moving average for pollster y, the moving average for pollster z, and so on. Otherwise you'll confuse house effects for movement.
Sorry. I'm reviewing a paper, so I'm in "pedantic grumpy shit" mode.
I use an exponential moving average with a decay factor of 10% so all the pollsters are represented to varying degrees. The problem of doing moving averages for each pollster separately as you suggest is that a) you have much fewer recent data points and b) which pollster do you use?
I know, but comparing poll from pollster x to poll from pollster y doesn't tell you much that can't be explained by house effects.
I had a quick look. I'm not sure I'm convinced. The author starts off with a central framework about existential dread, etc, then notes many Remainer anecdotes, then applies that framework to them. It's a fair point (and it might even be true), but it's not an argument. It's like saying Leavers were motivated by immigration: some were, but not all were, and one has to look at the mix.
As the Author says at the end, Leavers are in the next article.
It is social science so based on anecdata, but nonetheless interesting. I am not alone in finding alien much of the political expression in our country.
Comments
He'd developing into a bit more of a cynical, cunning, normal political leader, as much as he can anyway. He really is not different from other MPs as his worshipers think, except for being more Trump like than most of them.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9rte0e589p/People'sVote_180905_LabGains.pdf
Its research also revealed a “growing hostility” between Labour’s old and new core voters, creating a tension at the heart of the party, which has been riven by internal strife over its direction since 2015.
The report warns that the tensions are so acute and unresolved that they risk costing the party the next election.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/cities-are-now-labour-heartland-as-traditional-working-class-desert?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
Although of course the partisan lean of TN is much more red then TX.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html
Which is another reason I think a referendum, though still unlikely, has more chance - it would not resolve things perfectly either, I expect, but would at least be focused, depending on the questions, on the Brexit issue to some degree, whether an endorsement of no deal or switch to remain was being sought.
Theresa found that out to her cost last year.
I do feel I am running out of parties to vote for.
In the past I have even voted Communist because I couldn't stand the pro-EU line that Labour had at the time. His history of euroscepticism was one of the reasons I voted Corbyn for leader, incidentally.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm
The tensions in its coalition of supporters have been inflamed by Brexit. Senior figures are concerned that enthusiastic support for a soft Brexit or a second referendum, demanded by many of its supporters, could alienate some working-class communities that have continued to back it.....
.....The report also suggests that Labour’s surge in support from Remain backers has been overestimated. It states that the most remain-leaning seats started to move to Labour well before the referendum, suggesting demographic factors are more crucial than the EU vote
Yeah....sure they were. After what happened in 2017, there is no way in hell TMay would put her self through that again.
The Brexit vote was won there.
And if that still fails, well, the previously unthinkable may become thinkable. But not before it fails.
Speaking of the LDs, whatever did happen to the plan about new leadership rules, I genuinely missed what the outcome was?
The Russian currently has about as much idea about what is going on in the world as Dawn Butler.
I think that's right. There are very few cases of a junior party in a coalition not coming to regret it, and the USP of the SPD is not obvious. Some of that would be cured by a spell in opposition. The Greens are an odd mixture, a bit like British LibDems - some hard left, some managerial centrists: it's actually possible to imagine a CDU-Green coalition, but that would benefit SPD and Linke no end.
Whether the Aufstehen ovement will stand as a separate party is an interesting joker in the pack. The Linke are not really all radical Corbynite insurgents - they have too many members who look back on the GDR with fond memories, don't hold with all this grass roots democracy stuff and are ready for boring compromises. Aufstehen is much more the Corbynite thing, though they are much less pro-immigration.
Lets assume that the May aides scheme comes off - parliament votes for an early general election
What are the Tory front bench campaigning for? The ERG?
What are the Labour front bench campaigning for? The PLP?
What is Nigel Farage - having stepped back in to be "life president" of UKIP campaigning for?
2017201820192020....https://www.amazon.co.uk/Unofficial-Jeremy-Corbyn-Annual-2018/dp/1911042963
And yes, in my "might even fall as far as fifth/sixth" prediction for the SPD, that was assuming continuing coalition and consequent vote erosion. I wondered if you thought there was a core group of SPD voters who'd provide a floor, but like you I'm struggling to see their USP in a crowded field.
1. Theresa May and the Tory party want a GE.
2. There are sufficient Tory Mps willing to vote for Corbyn's VONC.
It isn't going to happen.
According to Electoral Calculus that results in:
Con 306 (+10 compared with a month ago)
Lab 265 (-11)
LD 17 (+1)
UKIP 0
Green 1
PC 3
SNP 40
NI 18
Tories 20 short of an overall majority.
If Theresa May were a steeplechaser, they would be putting the screens out on the course - to protect the squeamish public from seeing the inevitable bolt...
From my point of view, the Dreyfus affair is most interesting because it was sparked by a single cause célèbre. Just one court case—one disputed trial—plunged an entire country into an angry debate, creating unresolvable divisions between people who had previously not known that they disagreed with one another. But this shows that vastly different understandings of what is meant by “France” were already there, waiting to be discovered.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/10/poland-polarization/568324/
Trade union support for the SPD and long tradition (quite important in Germany) should stop them totally melting down, but I could see them sinking to say 15%.
https://www.libdemvoice.org/changes-to-lib-dem-leadership-rules-what-the-constitution-says-58213.html
Sorry. I'm reviewing a paper, so I'm in "pedantic grumpy shit" mode.
Brexit does not solve the countries issues, and seriously pisses off about half the country, and a majority of those in 2 of the home nations.
Rescinding it pisses off the other half. There is no middle position.
Somehow EEA became the option nobody wanted, despite it being the compromise that would have been easy to sell. Hard brexiteers wanted nothing to do with the EU whatsoever, and remainers were quite keen to trash the idea of an EEA in the hope of overturning the actual result.
It became difficult to distinguish between those who desired a soft Brexit and those who desired to overturn the result. The debate became, you are either for Brexit or against. Hence the traitors etc.
This article starts slowly, but is worth persisting with. Leavers psychology to follow by the same author:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1042871476339134464
The only people who might change their mind would be those who voted Leave in order to get more money and a better deal. But those who voted on sovereignity, or immigration, or any of the other grounds, have no reason to change their vote and in some cases will have those reasons reinforced. I'm not expecting a Remain win in a putative second referendum.
It's an opportune time to point out what I wrote here the weekend after the vote. A second referendum is desirable, but a second referendum requires a second deal. A second deal requires the UK to seek one (to stay) and the EU to offer one. The UK has not sought a better deal to stay and the EU has not offered one. No second deal, no win in a second referendum.
Anything could happen in a second referendum. It is even possible that there could be a less indecisive outcome.
Otherwise the most likely outcome is a transition period from March with FTA talks kicked into the transition, rendering a second referendum pointless
It is social science so based on anecdata, but nonetheless interesting. I am not alone in finding alien much of the political expression in our country.