Regarding the thread conclusion: "I’d argue that the failure of some pollsters at GE17 cannot be taken as a reliable guide to the future in the same way that CON understatement at GE2015 was no guide to what happened two years later."
I agree with that.
In the last few elections there has been a yo-yo effect regarding the accuracy of the Labour share compared to the actual result. 2005 Lab share overstated 2010 Lab share understated 2015 Lab share overstated 2017 Lab share understated 2022?
Certainly you can't take the error in polling of the Labour share at the previous election as a guide to the future, based on the past few elections. Going back before that, Labour more consistently underpolled. Either way, there is no reassurance for the Corbyn supporters who claim that Labour should not be concerned by still being 4% behind.
Polling companies have changed their techniques after each of the past few general elections taking the previous election as a guide to the next. The data suggests that more often than not they seem to overdo the change. Pollsters built in big adjustments in 2017 in the expectation that the chronic overstatement of the Labour vote in 2015 would be repeated. They overdid it and those adjustments have now been significantly unwound. The next election will be polled on the assumption that it will see a repeat of the very peculiar circumstances that applied in 2017. I think Mike is right to be highly sceptical about that.
A point not brought out explicitly in the article is that very few Labour people are entirely motivated by the issue itself. Brexit - for or against - is simply not seen by most Labour MPs as quite the cataclysmic decision point that Tory MPs seem to. The pro-referendum MPs are generally also influenced by being Corbynsceptics, the pro-Brexiteers are a tiny minority, and in between there are a lot of MPs, including the leadership, who simply don't feel that strongly. In that, they reflect a very large portion of Labour voters. It's really not that Labour MPs are being told by their voters they must vote for Brexit, but that they're being told to get on with the issues that people care about more.
That IMO is why the LibDems are not breaking through - their message is not "Vote for us as the sensible centrists" but "vote for us as the EU fanatics". There are EU fanatics in the electorate, more or less including me, but there aren't enough who only care about that to make it a winning line.
Yes, it is the LibDems that are most beset by an entryist takeover. Labour Trots and Tory swivel-eyed Europhobes have always been there. The Lib Dem Conference needed to be about far more than a #peoplesvote rally.
If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).
On your recommendation I have literally just ordered it from Amazon, so that will benefit the Exchequer by ... oh, hold on.
I guess we’re in for a morning’s cognitive dissonance where pb Tories console themselves with this table without noticing that (1) the Conservatives did calamitously badly in London in these local elections and (2) in the more recent London polls Labour’s vote share has beeen down - and so has the Tories’.
As I said earlier Alastair, the real challenge is getting the shares of the cake to add up to 100%.
We need an unknown unknown person of charisma to take over the LDs. We are after all in the era of personality politics and I don't see why the LDs shouldn't benefit from it also. Get someone young-ish, sensible centre-left, and photogenic in, rebrand perhaps (to "The Democrats"?) and off you go with 20-22% of the vote.
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
The word “additional” was there for a reason. When heading from boom to bust, it’s not advisable to give an additional shove if nature is taking its course. There’s now plenty of house-building, especially where it’s needed.
A point not brought out explicitly in the article is that very few Labour people are entirely motivated by the issue itself. Brexit - for or against - is simply not seen by most Labour MPs as quite the cataclysmic decision point that Tory MPs seem to. The pro-referendum MPs are generally also influenced by being Corbynsceptics, the pro-Brexiteers are a tiny minority, and in between there are a lot of MPs, including the leadership, who simply don't feel that strongly. In that, they reflect a very large portion of Labour voters. It's really not that Labour MPs are being told by their voters they must vote for Brexit, but that they're being told to get on with the issues that people care about more.
That IMO is why the LibDems are not breaking through - their message is not "Vote for us as the sensible centrists" but "vote for us as the EU fanatics". There are EU fanatics in the electorate, more or less including me, but there aren't enough who only care about that to make it a winning line.
Yes, it is the LibDems that are most beset by an entryist takeover. Labour Trots and Tory swivel-eyed Europhobes have always been there. The Lib Dem Conference needed to be about far more than a #peoplesvote rally.
It is remarkable when at a time the centre ground looks to have been so clearly vacated, the centre party should indulge in its own form of ideological extremism.
A point not brought out explicitly in the article is that very few Labour people are entirely motivated by the issue itself. Brexit - for or against - is simply not seen by most Labour MPs as quite the cataclysmic decision point that Tory MPs seem to. The pro-referendum MPs are generally also influenced by being Corbynsceptics, the pro-Brexiteers are a tiny minority, and in between there are a lot of MPs, including the leadership, who simply don't feel that strongly. In that, they reflect a very large portion of Labour voters. It's really not that Labour MPs are being told by their voters they must vote for Brexit, but that they're being told to get on with the issues that people care about more.
That IMO is why the LibDems are not breaking through - their message is not "Vote for us as the sensible centrists" but "vote for us as the EU fanatics". There are EU fanatics in the electorate, more or less including me, but there aren't enough who only care about that to make it a winning line.
Also worth noting that probably fewer than half of the "EU fanatics" are pro-EU fanatics.
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
The word “additional” was there for a reason. When heading from boom to bust, it’s not advisable to give an additional shove if nature is taking its course. There’s now plenty of house-building, especially where it’s needed.
I quite agree. And if you think the squealing about a lack of affordable housing was bad, just wait until negative equity kicks in.
I guess we’re in for a morning’s cognitive dissonance where pb Tories console themselves with this table without noticing that (1) the Conservatives did calamitously badly in London in these local elections and (2) in the more recent London polls Labour’s vote share has beeen down - and so has the Tories’.
As I said earlier Alastair, the real challenge is getting the shares of the cake to add up to 100%.
We need an unknown unknown person of charisma to take over the LDs. We are after all in the era of personality politics and I don't see why the LDs shouldn't benefit from it also. Get someone young-ish, sensible centre-left, and photogenic in, rebrand perhaps (to "The Democrats"?) and off you go with 20-22% of the vote.
It does seem that there really should be a major gap in the market. Where is the next Charlie Kennedy? And could he bare putting up with modern politics?
I guess we’re in for a morning’s cognitive dissonance where pb Tories console themselves with this table without noticing that (1) the Conservatives did calamitously badly in London in these local elections and (2) in the more recent London polls Labour’s vote share has beeen down - and so has the Tories’.
As I said earlier Alastair, the real challenge is getting the shares of the cake to add up to 100%.
We need an unknown unknown person of charisma to take over the LDs. We are after all in the era of personality politics and I don't see why the LDs shouldn't benefit from it also. Get someone young-ish, sensible centre-left, and photogenic in, rebrand perhaps (to "The Democrats"?) and off you go with 20-22% of the vote.
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
The word “additional” was there for a reason. When heading from boom to bust, it’s not advisable to give an additional shove if nature is taking its course. There’s now plenty of house-building, especially where it’s needed.
There is an enormous backlog of demand for private housing arising from a decade of declining home ownership, 300k a year immigration, a shortage of mortgages, low inflation and a lack of wage growth but there is some evidence that that is being addressed as construction booms. But there is still an unacceptable lack of decent public sector houses for the young in particular which needs to be addressed. We need to build more homes for young people stuck at home till their late 20s or early 30s so that they can get on with their lives.
I guess we’re in for a morning’s cognitive dissonance where pb Tories console themselves with this table without noticing that (1) the Conservatives did calamitously badly in London in these local elections and (2) in the more recent London polls Labour’s vote share has beeen down - and so has the Tories’.
As I said earlier Alastair, the real challenge is getting the shares of the cake to add up to 100%.
We need an unknown unknown person of charisma to take over the LDs. We are after all in the era of personality politics and I don't see why the LDs shouldn't benefit from it also. Get someone young-ish, sensible centre-left, and photogenic in, rebrand perhaps (to "The Democrats"?) and off you go with 20-22% of the vote.
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
I'm not sure I understand your point. Too expensive too cheap rooms too small?
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
I'm not sure I understand your point. Too expensive too cheap rooms too small?
Overpriced caused by help to buy. There's an older four bed semi nearby on the market for £425,000 with bigger dimensions and a much bigger garden.
Good to see a topic on politics in London - this site is all often dominated by the provincial backwaters so good to talk about the things that really matter.
Let's not forget the May locals were still solid for London but some of the more outlandish predictions made by people like me of gains in Hillingdon never happened. What happened was the concentration of seats by all three parties.
Of the 508 Conservative Councillors in London, 276 are in the seven Boroughs the Party still controls - add in the 24 in Havering and that means 300 out of 508 are in just eight Boroughs with 208 across the remaining 24. Large areas of London have little or no Conservative presence.
The LDs are even worse - the Party won two Boroughs amid much jollification but of the 152 seats held by the Party, 111 are in Kingston, Richmond and Sutton leaving just forty in the rest of the capital (11 of those in Southwark). The Conservatives have no representation in six London Boroughs, the LDs have no representation in 23.
Looking forward, last night's London Evening Osborne endorsed Shaun Bailey as the Conservative Mayoral candidate. No great surprise and I imagine the paper will function as Bailey's press office if he gets selected in the Conservative membership ballot. Bailey was yesterday talking more detectives (as though these can be magicked out of thin air) and having a pop at the Mayor's office which, though justifiable, is actually looking at the waste built up by Johnson and perpetuated by Khan,
It's difficult for Bailey yo argue spending more money on Police after the savage cuts imposed by Johnson but there's no doubt law and order is a big issue in many parts of the capital and in particular the surge in knife crime about which Khan's response has been weak.
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
The word “additional” was there for a reason. When heading from boom to bust, it’s not advisable to give an additional shove if nature is taking its course. There’s now plenty of house-building, especially where it’s needed.
There is an enormous backlog of demand for private housing arising from a decade of declining home ownership, 300k a year immigration, a shortage of mortgages, low inflation and a lack of wage growth but there is some evidence that that is being addressed as construction booms. But there is still an unacceptable lack of decent public sector houses for the young in particular which needs to be addressed. We need to build more homes for young people stuck at home till their late 20s or early 30s so that they can get on with their lives.
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
I'm not sure I understand your point. Too expensive too cheap rooms too small?
Overpriced caused by help to buy. There's an older four bed semi nearby on the market for £425,000 with bigger dimensions and a much bigger garden.
I see the Prime Minister's cheerleaders are up and about early this morning. It all sounds very good but it's a bidding process which means more bureaucracy and centralisation as the Government will decide where the money goes so it will be a minimum of 5-6 years before any of these new wonder houses even sees the light of day (assuming it happens).
Building a house isn't just about having the money to build a house - it has to be built somewhere which usually requires planning permission or land has to be purchased unless some kindly developer will donate their land bank.
It's not just about houses but about infrastructure and services. How is that to be provided, by whom and where is the money coming from?
As usual from all Governments, this is a frothy substance-free announcement devoid of anything approaching meaning which is more about propaganda and politics (announced just before the Labour Conference).
If it means anything in terms of politics, it signals the continuing leftward shift of the Conservative Party - it now seems the Prime Minister is channelling her inner MacMillan. Perhaps she can persuade Grayling to do a reverse Beeching and re-open the railway lines to serve all these new communities of Council houses.
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
The word “additional” was there for a reason. When heading from boom to bust, it’s not advisable to give an additional shove if nature is taking its course. There’s now plenty of house-building, especially where it’s needed.
There is an enormous backlog of demand for private housing arising from a decade of declining home ownership, 300k a year immigration, a shortage of mortgages, low inflation and a lack of wage growth but there is some evidence that that is being addressed as construction booms. But there is still an unacceptable lack of decent public sector houses for the young in particular which needs to be addressed. We need to build more homes for young people stuck at home till their late 20s or early 30s so that they can get on with their lives.
There is plenty of construction going on the challenge is for it to be affordable. The lunacy is that such has been the buoyancy of the housing market that developers' costs have likewise skyrocketed with the result that their price points are often beyond what is affordable for normal people. There needs to be a wholesale rebasing of the housing market but, as ever over the past few decades, there is no government that could embark upon an exercise of that type.
Yeah, the ultimate point that we shouldn't assume that the next election's polling will have the same error as the last is a good one, but using the London election as evidence isa bit silly
Sounds like retailers cashed in on the hot summer. And further evidence that the London housing market is cooling.
Despite their tweet, their own data actually shows prices rising in London, month-on-month. Annualised number might be lower, but is often a lagging indicator.
So nearly 35 years later Mrs May reverses one (among many) of Mrs Thatcher's disaterous social policies.
Right to buy's mistake was not to use the proceeds of sale to build new social homes
That was a mistake of course but by far the bigger mistake was removing a cheap regulated rental sector.
What we also need in housing is 'quality'. Regulation is easy to achieve; cost is easy to reduce if you cost-reduce. What it's really hard to do is get 'quality' housing, and it's where housing delivery in this country is utterly falling down, whatever the sector.
Really? Would you like to explain how the EU's social legislation works in Switzerland?
Basically, you have no idea how negotiations are going, and spew opinions as facts. Let me give you a few examples of things you have claimed, which are - how to put this - devoid of reality.
You asserted that the UK was not conducting talks with countries that the EU had existing FTAs with, because tthe EU had forbidden it. This was, as I pointed out at the time, completely untrue, which has been demonstrated by the government's agreements in Southern Africa.
You asserted that that the EU had never made financial demands beyond those agreed by the UK government. This was, again, completely untrue.
There are people on politicalbetting with less credibility that you. But not many.
Well, now, it was actually you that claimed you knew how the negotiations were going - you said a deal was coming into focus.
I did not 'assert' that the UK was not conducting discussions with other countries regarding trade. I correctly stated that the UK was not negotiating FTAs because the EU forbade it. In relation to South Africa May simply agreed to roll over the existing EU agreement, which does not involve any change to the existing EU deal - eg there have been no negotiations. No idea what your point on financial demands is but if you clarify no doubt I can correct you.
Switzerland via its bilateral treaties with the EU has signed up for virtually all the same laws that would be applicable in the EEA. Even then, as you should know, the EU are insisting on a greater degree of alignment because they are not satisfied with the bi-laterals because they cannot impose now regulations automatically.
My sense is that if May gets a half-decent deal (which I think she will, ultimately, now that the insane wing of her party have been ruthlessly exposed), the London housing market will warm back up rather quickly. Lots of pent up demand. The reason prices fell in the spring is mostly because only those who had to sell, sold.
Really? Would you like to explain how the EU's social legislation works in Switzerland?
Basically, you have no idea how negotiations are going, and spew opinions as facts. Let me give you a few examples of things you have claimed, which are - how to put this - devoid of reality.
You asserted that the UK was not conducting talks with countries that the EU had existing FTAs with, because tthe EU had forbidden it. This was, as I pointed out at the time, completely untrue, which has been demonstrated by the government's agreements in Southern Africa.
You asserted that that the EU had never made financial demands beyond those agreed by the UK government. This was, again, completely untrue.
There are people on politicalbetting with less credibility that you. But not many.
Well, now, it was actually you that claimed you knew how the negotiations were going - you said a deal was coming into focus.
I did not 'assert' that the UK was not conducting discussions with other countries regarding trade. I correctly stated that the UK was not negotiating FTAs because the EU forbade it. In relation to South Africa May simply agreed to roll over the existing EU agreement, which does not involve any change to the existing EU deal - eg there have been no negotiations. No idea what your point on financial demands is but if you clarify no doubt I can correct you.
Switzerland via its bilateral treaties with the EU has signed up for virtually all the same laws that would be applicable in the EEA. Even then, as you should know, the EU are insisting on a greater degree of alignment because they are not satisfied with the bi-laterals because they cannot impose now regulations automatically.
You lose credibility when you make things up.
I see PB has returned to the the Twilight Zone where diamond-hard Brit Nat Leavers opine on their perfect Clean Brexit from their permanent residence in Australia.
My sense is that if May gets a half-decent deal (which I think she will, ultimately, now that the insane wing of her party have been ruthlessly exposed), the London housing market will warm back up rather quickly. Lots of pent up demand. The reason prices fell in the spring is mostly because only those who had to sell, sold.
Mood music via some journalists beginning to sound the note that she will pull off her deal.
Brexiteer ultras are going to self-combust when this happens. Many a dream may soon be over...
Irish courts that have been refusing to extradite criminal suspects because of Brexit have been told by European judges they must cooperate with British justice.
About 20 wanted individuals are believed to be resisting removal to the UK on the grounds that once Britain has left the EU their community rights would no longer be protected by common legal standards.
The European court of justice in Luxembourg on Wednesday dismissed an urgent application by the high court in Dublin and ruled that European extradition warrants (EAWs) continue in force at least until the moment of the UK’s departure.
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
The word “additional” was there for a reason. When heading from boom to bust, it’s not advisable to give an additional shove if nature is taking its course. There’s now plenty of house-building, especially where it’s needed.
There is an enormous backlog of demand for private housing arising from a decade of declining home ownership, 300k a year immigration, a shortage of mortgages, low inflation and a lack of wage growth but there is some evidence that that is being addressed as construction booms. But there is still an unacceptable lack of decent public sector houses for the young in particular which needs to be addressed. We need to build more homes for young people stuck at home till their late 20s or early 30s so that they can get on with their lives.
There is plenty of construction going on the challenge is for it to be affordable. The lunacy is that such has been the buoyancy of the housing market that developers' costs have likewise skyrocketed with the result that their price points are often beyond what is affordable for normal people. There needs to be a wholesale rebasing of the housing market but, as ever over the past few decades, there is no government that could embark upon an exercise of that type.
its a trade off supply versus demand
HMGs problem is it needs most affordable houses in the South. The housing in the South might actually pay off if it removes private landlord rentals from the housing budget or if it stops rentals rising.
But as others have pointed out housing isnt just about house building, its all the other infrastructure which needs to come with it -schools roads water hospitals.
“I want a General Election, I don’t want to let these Tories off the hook. I want them out there explaining their policies, not just on Brexit but on other issues as well. And I want people to be able to choose the team that will then take us forward.
“I’m still saying all options are on the table. We’re never going to reject any form of democratic engagement so a People’s Vote is still on the table – but I want a General Election.”
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
The word “additional” was there for a reason. When heading from boom to bust, it’s not advisable to give an additional shove if nature is taking its course. There’s now plenty of house-building, especially where it’s needed.
I quite agree. And if you think the squealing about a lack of affordable housing was bad, just wait until negative equity kicks in.
If house prices fall enough to make negative equity an issue, more houses will become affordable.
There is a belief both within the social rented sector and by some outside it that *only* houses for social rent are 'affordable'. In reality, this varies widely from place to place. When I was a director of the stock transfer company that received Bradford Council's housing stock, the rents were close to market rate in quite a number of places.
A fall in house prices of, say, 10%+ would certainly stop a lot of new build - Social Rented as well as private for sale, lease or rent - but would also bring houses currently out of affordability into it.
My sense is that if May gets a half-decent deal (which I think she will, ultimately, now that the insane wing of her party have been ruthlessly exposed), the London housing market will warm back up rather quickly. Lots of pent up demand. The reason prices fell in the spring is mostly because only those who had to sell, sold.
I must admit, I really don't understand where the demand to buy so many broom cupboards for £3m a piece comes from, nor why it's there.
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
The word “additional” was there for a reason. When heading from boom to bust, it’s not advisable to give an additional shove if nature is taking its course. There’s now plenty of house-building, especially where it’s needed.
I quite agree. And if you think the squealing about a lack of affordable housing was bad, just wait until negative equity kicks in.
If house prices fall enough to make negative equity an issue, more houses will become affordable.
There is a belief both within the social rented sector and by some outside it that *only* houses for social rent are 'affordable'. In reality, this varies widely from place to place. When I was a director of the stock transfer company that received Bradford Council's housing stock, the rents were close to market rate in quite a number of places.
A fall in house prices of, say, 10%+ would certainly stop a lot of new build - Social Rented as well as private for sale, lease or rent - but would also bring houses currently out of affordability into it.
I’d say that so long as the rent of a home (be it private or social) is less than 40% of the nett take home pay of someone who’s on the minimum wage (i.e about £375 per month) then it’s affordable.
Of course, if a couple take it who are both working you can go up to £750 pcm and get something quite nice. It’s much harder when only one is working and childcare comes into the equation.
“I want a General Election, I don’t want to let these Tories off the hook. I want them out there explaining their policies, not just on Brexit but on other issues as well. And I want people to be able to choose the team that will then take us forward.
“I’m still saying all options are on the table. We’re never going to reject any form of democratic engagement so a People’s Vote is still on the table – but I want a General Election.”
I guess we’re in for a morning’s cognitive dissonance where pb Tories console themselves with this table without noticing that (1) the Conservatives did calamitously badly in London in these local elections and (2) in the more recent London polls Labour’s vote share has beeen down - and so has the Tories’.
As I said earlier Alastair, the real challenge is getting the shares of the cake to add up to 100%.
We need an unknown unknown person of charisma to take over the LDs. We are after all in the era of personality politics and I don't see why the LDs shouldn't benefit from it also. Get someone young-ish, sensible centre-left, and photogenic in, rebrand perhaps (to "The Democrats"?) and off you go with 20-22% of the vote.
Quite why the Lib Dems don't just say "thanks Vince but bye" and install Layla Moran (or, at a pinch, Jo Swinson, but definitely Moran by preference), I have no idea. They appear to think they have all the time in the world to faff around. They don't.
My sense is that if May gets a half-decent deal (which I think she will, ultimately, now that the insane wing of her party have been ruthlessly exposed), the London housing market will warm back up rather quickly. Lots of pent up demand. The reason prices fell in the spring is mostly because only those who had to sell, sold.
I must admit, I really don't understand where the demand to buy so many broom cupboards for £3m a piece comes from, nor why it's there.
More mythology about the London housing market, see it all the time on here.
My house is in a nice London postcode, has a 77ft south facing garden, four double bedrooms (three large doubles) and is close to great state schools. It's valued at £600-650k.
My sense is that if May gets a half-decent deal (which I think she will, ultimately, now that the insane wing of her party have been ruthlessly exposed), the London housing market will warm back up rather quickly. Lots of pent up demand. The reason prices fell in the spring is mostly because only those who had to sell, sold.
Mood music via some journalists beginning to sound the note that she will pull off her deal.
Brexiteer ultras are going to self-combust when this happens. Many a dream may soon be over...
She will pull it off, I think. And will be heralded for it by anyone even vaguely sane. I have been saying this for months on here. We shall see.
I guess we’re in for a morning’s cognitive dissonance where pb Tories console themselves with this table without noticing that (1) the Conservatives did calamitously badly in London in these local elections and (2) in the more recent London polls Labour’s vote share has beeen down - and so has the Tories’.
As I said earlier Alastair, the real challenge is getting the shares of the cake to add up to 100%.
We need an unknown unknown person of charisma to take over the LDs. We are after all in the era of personality politics and I don't see why the LDs shouldn't benefit from it also. Get someone young-ish, sensible centre-left, and photogenic in, rebrand perhaps (to "The Democrats"?) and off you go with 20-22% of the vote.
Quite why the Lib Dems don't just say "thanks Vince but bye" and install Layla Moran (or, at a pinch, Jo Swinson, but definitely Moran by preference), I have no idea.
I'm guessing because Vince has made it clear iirc that he won't be around for GE 2022.
If Brexit goes ahead and no GE next Spring, then I think we have seen his last conference speech.
My sense is that if May gets a half-decent deal (which I think she will, ultimately, now that the insane wing of her party have been ruthlessly exposed), the London housing market will warm back up rather quickly. Lots of pent up demand. The reason prices fell in the spring is mostly because only those who had to sell, sold.
Mood music via some journalists beginning to sound the note that she will pull off her deal.
Brexiteer ultras are going to self-combust when this happens. Many a dream may soon be over...
She will pull it off, I think. And will be heralded for it by anyone even vaguely sane. I have been saying this for months on here. We shall see.
Enjoy yourselves while you can. A bunch of spined articles in the press do not a deal make. If you look behind the headlines, to the issues, you will see nothing is moving. Both sides are still expecting total capitulation from the other.
A sign a deal is on its way. All the small crappy points start to creep out of the woodwork
as rcs points out this is now the problem for the EU team to stop the nit shit fouling things up
If the discussion has now moved on to demands for a little bit of wonga here and there for the EU27 to lubricate the deal, then finalising it is imminent.
My sense is that if May gets a half-decent deal (which I think she will, ultimately, now that the insane wing of her party have been ruthlessly exposed), the London housing market will warm back up rather quickly. Lots of pent up demand. The reason prices fell in the spring is mostly because only those who had to sell, sold.
Mood music via some journalists beginning to sound the note that she will pull off her deal.
Brexiteer ultras are going to self-combust when this happens. Many a dream may soon be over...
She will pull it off, I think. And will be heralded for it by anyone even vaguely sane. I have been saying this for months on here. We shall see.
Well, I've been saying since the vote that it wont actually happen. But does look we are inching towards something. Lot can blow up in next couple of months though.
If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).
It was indeed. I even bought a copy for my nephew, who has an entrepreneurship gene that I lack.
It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.
It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.
One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
I'm guessing because Vince has made it clear iirc that he won't be around for GE 2022.
If Brexit goes ahead and no GE next Spring, then I think we have seen his last conference speech.
I'm sure you're right. But what sort of strategic thinking is that? "Labour and the Tories are both self-immolating right now, so let's capitalise on that by... er, doing nothing for a couple of years and then we can choose a new leader at some point."
If Brexit goes to sh-t then Corbyn is going to be the one who capitalises on it. If Brexit turns out brilliantly then it'll be May. The Lib Dems need to start staking out their territory now in readiness.
If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).
It was indeed. I even bought a copy for my nephew, who has an entrepreneurship gene that I lack.
It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.
It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.
One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
From that document: "Quitters apart, MPs want No Deal even less than they want whatever WA May puts to them. In the political chaos that results something like a referendum or a general election may emerge as a way forward (and the EU will extend A50 to allow time for this). Brexiters do not want a referendum, because for all their talk of the will of the people they only want that will if it agrees with their own wishes."
When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.
Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
From that document: "Quitters apart, MPs want No Deal even less than they want whatever WA May puts to them. In the political chaos that results something like a referendum or a general election may emerge as a way forward (and the EU will extend A50 to allow time for this). Brexiters do not want a referendum, because for all their talk of the will of the people they only want that will if it agrees with their own wishes."
When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.
Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
Twitter is full of recollections of surprisingly articulate and politically aware five year olds, whose views miraculously coincide with and encapsulate those of the adult retelling their anecdote.
As an aside, if there is another vote it'd be better to be sooner, rather than later, so my bet comes off.
When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.
Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
So if Mays deal is defeated?
No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.
Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
So if Mays deal is defeated?
No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
Why? I think it can.
We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?
By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
1. When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.
2. Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
3. How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
1. It will probably go through. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Labour doesn't vote against in the end. Even if the official whip is to oppose, I expect Lab rebels to be sufficiently large as to overturn any Con rebellion (in a rather pleasing echo of 1972).
2. This is point (1) again.
3. Because a general election has to be triggered either by the government asking for one or for a VoNC in the govt in the Commons. The government won't want an election if its plans go down in flames, and Labour won't have the votes to force one. just because Jacob Rees-Mogg might vote down Chequers, it doesn't mean he'll vote to Corbyn into Number 10 (which is a likely immediate consequence of a VoNC in the govt).
If Chequers is voted down, there's a good chance that there'll be a Con leadership election, either because May resigns voluntarily or because she's forced out. In those circumstances, the Con MPs would absolutely oppose any attempt to force a GE, and the public would almost certainly see it as unfair game-playing to try to trigger a GE in the middle of a party's internal election.
When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.
Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
So if Mays deal is defeated?
No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
Why? I think it can.
We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?
By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
Because by triggering Art 50 Parliament made no deal the default.
When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.
Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
So if Mays deal is defeated?
No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
Why? I think it can.
We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?
By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
Because by triggering Art 50 Parliament made no deal the default.
Do you think that if we reach March 28th 2019 with no deal and mounting chaos, May and the EU27 will be powerless because parliament voted to trigger Article 50?
If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).
It was indeed. I even bought a copy for my nephew, who has an entrepreneurship gene that I lack.
It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.
It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.
One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Let me share some of my ward casework with you. heartbreaking stories of over-crowding, no real prospect of the council being able to help, safety nets falling through where specialist organisations can't cope with multiple needs (e.g. addictions AND homelessness AND mental health issues.) Crisis is the word - and I know it's worse in other areas, we are building a lot of houses which is helping, as are the Homelessness Reduction Act provisions taking effect.
When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.
Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
So if Mays deal is defeated?
No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
Why? I think it can.
We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?
By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
Because by triggering Art 50 Parliament made no deal the default.
Do you think that if we reach March 28th 2019 with no deal and mounting chaos, May and the EU27 will be powerless because parliament voted to trigger Article 50?
what will you post about post March if a deal is done ?
LOL at people thinking Labour are going to vote through a No Deal Brexit.
In the likely event of Labour MPs rejecting May's deal, they will probably propose a motion forbidding the government from formally leaving the EU (revoking Article 50 if necessary) until a deal is approved. Though of course, there's no guarantee such a motion would be carried by the Commons, since the Anna Soubrys on the Tory benches usually fold and fall into line on crunch votes, despite all the trash they talk in advance.
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Let me share some of my ward casework with you. heartbreaking stories of over-crowding, no real prospect of the council being able to help, safety nets falling through where specialist organisations can't cope with multiple needs (e.g. addictions AND homelessness AND mental health issues.) Crisis is the word - and I know it's worse in other areas, we are building a lot of houses which is helping, as are the Homelessness Reduction Act provisions taking effect.
I'm currently helping a friend who lives in Cornwall. No emergency housing is available as no one has moved out of it in the past 18 months for there is no where for anyone with children to move to (not public, nor private)...
Now there may be places where there may not be a problem 3 years hence but there are definitely places where something needs to be done asap.
As I understand it the proposal to have a category of supporter and allow them to attend meetings, have a say on policy, etc came from a party committee set up to look at future developments. Responses have to go back to that committee, I suspect it will be largely supported. The proposal to allow these non-members to vote for the leader who could be a non-MP came from Vince and his staff. I suspect he will get a raspberry on that.
When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.
Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
So if Mays deal is defeated?
No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
Why? I think it can.
We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?
By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
We leave with the deal, or we leave with no deal, as the PM suggests.
Opposition MPs need to think very carefully about which way they vote, I still think Labour are most likely to abstain once the politics of the situation become apparent.
There’s no route to a GE unless the government supports the idea (or a dozen Tories cross the floor to join the Lib Dems). Thank Nick Clegg for the FTPA.
Perhaps a reasonable possibility is that if Labour realise that achieving a GE at this stage is impossible because of FTPA + Conservative wish to survive, their next best plan is to continue to avoid having their hands in the gore of Brexit. They can't do this by voting either with or against the government over the WA so the line would be to find a high moral ground for abstaining
When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.
Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
So if Mays deal is defeated?
No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
Why? I think it can.
We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?
By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
We leave with the deal, or we leave with no deal, as the PM suggests.
Opposition MPs need to think very carefully about which way they vote, I still think Labour are most likely to abstain once the politics of the situation become apparent.
There’s no route to a GE unless the government supports the idea (or a dozen Tories cross the floor to join the Lib Dems). Thank Nick Clegg for the FTPA.
Another reason, in retrospect, why Labour should've initially played hardball when May proposed an election last year, and refused to support it, thus forcing the Tories to repeal the FTPA.
It was interesting this morning in a Brexit discussion on the Victoria Derbyshire programme on the BBC (yes I was watching the BBC) that in a panel of 12 members of the public only 2 wanted a peoples vote and it met with some derision, while the remainder wanted a hard Brexit or TM deal, the majority of those just wanted it done.
John Redwood and Wes Streeting were present and when Wes Streeting went on to say a peoples vote was needed he was met with considerable dissent and very much a minority view
Listening to TM speaking to the Housing Association's conference this morning she seemed much more confident and assured, almost as if a weight was off her shoulders. I know those on here will say that I am her cheerleader but I am not without criticism of her, but something seems to have changed
I would be very surprised if she has not already achieved a deal and the performance between now and November between the EU and the UK is both of them deliberately shortening the time scale and making it extremely difficult for responsible MPs to vote down the deal
Danske Banks estonian branched laudered $234bn before anyone noticed
I don't think that's what the article says, it says the bank *investigated* $234bn worth of payments, and some of those (a "significant part") were "suspicious". The actual money laundering is presumably a subset of the "suspicious" ones, so it's a subset of a subset of the $234bn.
When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.
Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
So if Mays deal is defeated?
No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
Why? I think it can.
We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?
By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
We leave with the deal, or we leave with no deal, as the PM suggests.
Opposition MPs need to think very carefully about which way they vote, I still think Labour are most likely to abstain once the politics of the situation become apparent.
There’s no route to a GE unless the government supports the idea (or a dozen Tories cross the floor to join the Lib Dems). Thank Nick Clegg for the FTPA.
Another reason, in retrospect, why Labour should've initially played hardball when May proposed an election last year, and refused to support it, thus forcing the Tories to repeal the FTPA.
With or without the FTPA there's no route to a general election if the government doesn't want one, and the MPs it needs for its majority keep voting for it to stay in office.
Mr. NorthWales, not a fan of focus groups and the like myself. Very difficult to get fair and representative people, plus groupthink and experimenter effects can influence things too.
RIP Saw him in London once or twice and he certainly went on a long time
You could always have left at the interval....
Well 'It'll be Alright on the Night' did have adverts I suppose
Denis Norden's BBC obituary starts with his RAF days: One day, three young comics went to find some lights for a show they were doing.
They were entertaining the RAF in northern Germany and had been told they would find what they needed at a nearby camp which had recently been liberated.
The camp was called Bergen-Belsen.
...
Norden and his two friends, Ron Rich and Eric Sykes, dumped the lights. They went straight back to their own camp and picked up whatever spare food they could find.
"Appalled, aghast, repelled - it is difficult to find words to express how we felt as we looked upon the degradation of some of the inmates not yet repatriated," he said.
Seventy thousand people had died in Bergen-Belsen, most of them by starvation. "As far as I could see, all these pitiable wrecks had one thing in common. None of them was standing."
Danske Banks estonian branched laudered $234bn before anyone noticed
I don't think that's what the article says, it says the bank *investigated* $234bn worth of payments, and some of those (a "significant part") were "suspicious". The actual money laundering is presumably a subset of the "suspicious" ones, so it's a subset of a subset of the $234bn.
youre nit picking if the bank missed suspicious payment several times larger than Estonias GDP something was horribly wrong
I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
Room Metres Feet and inches Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9" Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9" Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9" Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4" Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.
Lol what teeny tiny rooms. Whoever buys that is heading for a whole world of negative equity I think
Listening to TM speaking to the Housing Association's conference this morning she seemed much more confident and assured, almost as if a weight was off her shoulders. I know those on here will say that I am her cheerleader but I am not without criticism of her, but something seems to have changed
Dancing in Africa was another part of this. Number 10 has got its act together. Not just in training the Prime Minister to do human but also in opening social media fire on Boris whenever he puts his head above the parapet, and scripting Theresa May some zingers for PMQs. What ought to worry Tory MPs is this greater professionalism might encourage her to hang around for the next election.
Listening to TM speaking to the Housing Association's conference this morning she seemed much more confident and assured, almost as if a weight was off her shoulders. I know those on here will say that I am her cheerleader but I am not without criticism of her, but something seems to have changed
Dancing in Africa was another part of this. Number 10 has got its act together. Not just in training the Prime Minister to do human but also in opening social media fire on Boris whenever he puts his head above the parapet, and scripting Theresa May some zingers for PMQs. What ought to worry Tory MPs is this greater professionalism might encourage her to hang around for the next election.
May's precipitous drop during the 2017 campaign happened because of the disconnect between the May brand Crosby was trying to sell and the reality. It won't happen again because she's now a known quantity as PM.
Comments
First they came for the Jews, then they came for the unions.
I agree with that.
In the last few elections there has been a yo-yo effect regarding the accuracy of the Labour share compared to the actual result.
2005 Lab share overstated
2010 Lab share understated
2015 Lab share overstated
2017 Lab share understated
2022?
Certainly you can't take the error in polling of the Labour share at the previous election as a guide to the future, based on the past few elections. Going back before that, Labour more consistently underpolled. Either way, there is no reassurance for the Corbyn supporters who claim that Labour should not be concerned by still being 4% behind.
Polling companies have changed their techniques after each of the past few general elections taking the previous election as a guide to the next. The data suggests that more often than not they seem to overdo the change. Pollsters built in big adjustments in 2017 in the expectation that the chronic overstatement of the Labour vote in 2015 would be repeated. They overdid it and those adjustments have now been significantly unwound. The next election will be polled on the assumption that it will see a repeat of the very peculiar circumstances that applied in 2017. I think Mike is right to be highly sceptical about that.
(OK, off to bed now... Play nicely.)
Good to see a topic on politics in London - this site is all often dominated by the provincial backwaters so good to talk about the things that really matter.
Let's not forget the May locals were still solid for London but some of the more outlandish predictions made by people like me of gains in Hillingdon never happened. What happened was the concentration of seats by all three parties.
Of the 508 Conservative Councillors in London, 276 are in the seven Boroughs the Party still controls - add in the 24 in Havering and that means 300 out of 508 are in just eight Boroughs with 208 across the remaining 24. Large areas of London have little or no Conservative presence.
The LDs are even worse - the Party won two Boroughs amid much jollification but of the 152 seats held by the Party, 111 are in Kingston, Richmond and Sutton leaving just forty in the rest of the capital (11 of those in Southwark). The Conservatives have no representation in six London Boroughs, the LDs have no representation in 23.
Looking forward, last night's London Evening Osborne endorsed Shaun Bailey as the Conservative Mayoral candidate. No great surprise and I imagine the paper will function as Bailey's press office if he gets selected in the Conservative membership ballot. Bailey was yesterday talking more detectives (as though these can be magicked out of thin air) and having a pop at the Mayor's office which, though justifiable, is actually looking at the waste built up by Johnson and perpetuated by Khan,
It's difficult for Bailey yo argue spending more money on Police after the savage cuts imposed by Johnson but there's no doubt law and order is a big issue in many parts of the capital and in particular the surge in knife crime about which Khan's response has been weak.
Building a house isn't just about having the money to build a house - it has to be built somewhere which usually requires planning permission or land has to be purchased unless some kindly developer will donate their land bank.
It's not just about houses but about infrastructure and services. How is that to be provided, by whom and where is the money coming from?
As usual from all Governments, this is a frothy substance-free announcement devoid of anything approaching meaning which is more about propaganda and politics (announced just before the Labour Conference).
If it means anything in terms of politics, it signals the continuing leftward shift of the Conservative Party - it now seems the Prime Minister is channelling her inner MacMillan. Perhaps she can persuade Grayling to do a reverse Beeching and re-open the railway lines to serve all these new communities of Council houses.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1042330236111802368
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1042330948321398784
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1042333286025056256
Sounds like retailers cashed in on the hot summer. And further evidence that the London housing market is cooling.
I did not 'assert' that the UK was not conducting discussions with other countries regarding trade. I correctly stated that the UK was not negotiating FTAs because the EU forbade it. In relation to South Africa May simply agreed to roll over the existing EU agreement, which does not involve any change to the existing EU deal - eg there have been no negotiations. No idea what your point on financial demands is but if you clarify no doubt I can correct you.
Switzerland via its bilateral treaties with the EU has signed up for virtually all the same laws that would be applicable in the EEA. Even then, as you should know, the EU are insisting on a greater degree of alignment because they are not satisfied with the bi-laterals because they cannot impose now regulations automatically.
You lose credibility when you make things up.
Brexiteer ultras are going to self-combust when this happens. Many a dream may soon be over...
About 20 wanted individuals are believed to be resisting removal to the UK on the grounds that once Britain has left the EU their community rights would no longer be protected by common legal standards.
The European court of justice in Luxembourg on Wednesday dismissed an urgent application by the high court in Dublin and ruled that European extradition warrants (EAWs) continue in force at least until the moment of the UK’s departure.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2018/sep/19/irish-courts-told-to-cooperate-with-uk-on-extradition?CMP=twt_gu
HMGs problem is it needs most affordable houses in the South. The housing in the South might actually pay off if it removes private landlord rentals from the housing budget or if it stops rentals rising.
But as others have pointed out housing isnt just about house building, its all the other infrastructure which needs to come with it -schools roads water hospitals.
“I want a General Election, I don’t want to let these Tories off the hook. I want them out there explaining their policies, not just on Brexit but on other issues as well. And I want people to be able to choose the team that will then take us forward.
“I’m still saying all options are on the table. We’re never going to reject any form of democratic engagement so a People’s Vote is still on the table – but I want a General Election.”
https://leftfootforward.org/2018/09/exclusive-john-mcdonnell-on-the-financial-crash-and-a-peoples-vote-on-brexit/
There is a belief both within the social rented sector and by some outside it that *only* houses for social rent are 'affordable'. In reality, this varies widely from place to place. When I was a director of the stock transfer company that received Bradford Council's housing stock, the rents were close to market rate in quite a number of places.
A fall in house prices of, say, 10%+ would certainly stop a lot of new build - Social Rented as well as private for sale, lease or rent - but would also bring houses currently out of affordability into it.
as rcs points out this is now the problem for the EU team to stop the nit shit fouling things up
Of course, if a couple take it who are both working you can go up to £750 pcm and get something quite nice. It’s much harder when only one is working and childcare comes into the equation.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/liberal-democrats/vince-cable/opinion/politicshome/98321/revealed-what-lib
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1042331779338776576
Quite why the Lib Dems don't just say "thanks Vince but bye" and install Layla Moran (or, at a pinch, Jo Swinson, but definitely Moran by preference), I have no idea. They appear to think they have all the time in the world to faff around. They don't.
My house is in a nice London postcode, has a 77ft south facing garden, four double bedrooms (three large doubles) and is close to great state schools. It's valued at £600-650k.
I sometimes think PBers think London = W1.
She will pull it off, I think. And will be heralded for it by anyone even vaguely sane. I have been saying this for months on here. We shall see.
If Brexit goes ahead and no GE next Spring, then I think we have seen his last conference speech.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1042183068734418945
If Brexit goes to sh-t then Corbyn is going to be the one who capitalises on it. If Brexit turns out brilliantly then it'll be May. The Lib Dems need to start staking out their territory now in readiness.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1042339222949117952
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/exploringrecenttrendsinthelondonhousingmarket/2018-09-19
Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.
How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?
"Quitters apart, MPs want No Deal even less than they want whatever WA May puts to them. In the political chaos that results something like a referendum or a general election may emerge as a way forward (and the EU will extend A50 to allow time for this). Brexiters do not want a referendum, because for all their talk of the will of the people they only want that will if it agrees with their own wishes."
Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
https://twitter.com/will_dryofoc/status/1042322940157734912?s=21
Twitter is full of recollections of surprisingly articulate and politically aware five year olds, whose views miraculously coincide with and encapsulate those of the adult retelling their anecdote.
As an aside, if there is another vote it'd be better to be sooner, rather than later, so my bet comes off.
We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?
By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
2. This is point (1) again.
3. Because a general election has to be triggered either by the government asking for one or for a VoNC in the govt in the Commons. The government won't want an election if its plans go down in flames, and Labour won't have the votes to force one. just because Jacob Rees-Mogg might vote down Chequers, it doesn't mean he'll vote to Corbyn into Number 10 (which is a likely immediate consequence of a VoNC in the govt).
If Chequers is voted down, there's a good chance that there'll be a Con leadership election, either because May resigns voluntarily or because she's forced out. In those circumstances, the Con MPs would absolutely oppose any attempt to force a GE, and the public would almost certainly see it as unfair game-playing to try to trigger a GE in the middle of a party's internal election.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-danske-bank-moneylaundering/danske-bank-ceo-quits-in-234-billion-money-laundering-scandal-idUSKCN1LZ0QX
thats 10 times the national GDP
I suspect that a lot of people around the world are going to be in big trouble with this one.
In the likely event of Labour MPs rejecting May's deal, they will probably propose a motion forbidding the government from formally leaving the EU (revoking Article 50 if necessary) until a deal is approved. Though of course, there's no guarantee such a motion would be carried by the Commons, since the Anna Soubrys on the Tory benches usually fold and fall into line on crunch votes, despite all the trash they talk in advance.
Now there may be places where there may not be a problem 3 years hence but there are definitely places where something needs to be done asap.
Opposition MPs need to think very carefully about which way they vote, I still think Labour are most likely to abstain once the politics of the situation become apparent.
There’s no route to a GE unless the government supports the idea (or a dozen Tories cross the floor to join the Lib Dems). Thank Nick Clegg for the FTPA.
John Redwood and Wes Streeting were present and when Wes Streeting went on to say a peoples vote was needed he was met with considerable dissent and very much a minority view
Listening to TM speaking to the Housing Association's conference this morning she seemed much more confident and assured, almost as if a weight was off her shoulders. I know those on here will say that I am her cheerleader but I am not without criticism of her, but something seems to have changed
I would be very surprised if she has not already achieved a deal and the performance between now and November between the EU and the UK is both of them deliberately shortening the time scale and making it extremely difficult for responsible MPs to vote down the deal
One day, three young comics went to find some lights for a show they were doing.
They were entertaining the RAF in northern Germany and had been told they would find what they needed at a nearby camp which had recently been liberated.
The camp was called Bergen-Belsen.
...
Norden and his two friends, Ron Rich and Eric Sykes, dumped the lights. They went straight back to their own camp and picked up whatever spare food they could find.
"Appalled, aghast, repelled - it is difficult to find words to express how we felt as we looked upon the degradation of some of the inmates not yet repatriated," he said.
Seventy thousand people had died in Bergen-Belsen, most of them by starvation. "As far as I could see, all these pitiable wrecks had one thing in common. None of them was standing."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25738224
That is why antisemitism matters.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45572731
Think I will stick to Waitrose...
the things you learn on PB
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-45564686/brexit-why-champagne-has-become-an-issue
https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/1042196121257435137