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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the only 2018 polls to be tested against real results LAB shares were overstated by 7%+
One of the things that true believer Corbynistas keep telling me on Twitter is that last year’s general election was a turning point in British politics and that the rules have changed. Thus anything that doesn’t fit into this narrative has to be swept away and dismissed.
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https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/stormy-danielss-new-book-includes-graphic-details-trump-internet-horrified-123554238.html
On topic, Magic Grandpa is above politics or facts or logic - and long may he remain so.
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1042282914694737920?s=21
RIP.
If Labour did win the next election, I imagine the pressure on PLP members, having been nodding dogs for Corbyn up until that point, to go along with his crackpot ideas will be immense. Does depress one a shade.
That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.
And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.
Was that a freak or had the pollsters finally over adjusted? The London result suggests freak but there are several special factors. Firstly this was a local election where Labour traditionally suffer differential turnout. It may or may not transcribe onto Westminster. Secondly, it is well known that safe seats diminish turnout and London is the biggest collection of them in the country. Thirdly, it is also the biggest collection of rotten boroughs with highly mobile residents a disproportionately large number of which will not even be on the electoral register. If they were they might well support Labour. As they are not they are irrelevant and distort the polling.
I think it is too early to say that the default of Labour overstatement is back. But it might be.
the rock and the hard place deicde to go out for a pint and have a laugh
and NI goes back to being a place only Games of Thrones gives a shit about
It’s the key marginal polling i’d be interested in.
The question is whether the turnout is in places like Hackney or Welwyn Hatfield.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1042298103515283456
When I've seen her interviewed she comes across as level headed and charming - not something generally said of mushroom head.....
There are so many permutations to the Brexit process, at the key milestones of withdrawal and the end of the transition period that it's pointless listing them here. Suffice to say that they have ample opportunity to enrage and/or satisfy some or all of hard-line Remainers, hard-line Leavers, those who just want it sorted with honour and effect, and those in between - and provoke vote swings accordingly.
However, 15 months after an election, the opposition is just about level-pegging, and has barely registered any net swing since the election. Those are hardly positive signs for them going on the historic record.
Kiss and Tell.. trump was a fool.. but I despise her more, especially with her "revelations" about his todger. UGH..
We had the leaders speech from the Lib Dems yesterday which only made the news because Vince completely screwed up his supposed best line. Even when they are no longer led by a zombie are they really going to make a come back? Their choices look unexciting to poor.
It is possible that some of the Labour vote might bleed to the Greens. It seems vanishingly unlikely that those inclined to UKIP will even have a candidate to vote for. But however it is divided up and whatever the size of the cake (surely turnout will take a hit) the shares of the vote must add up to 100%. It is a conundrum.
In reality, it’s going to be a combination of the two but we just don’t know where the dividing line is.
It won't, though. Because it won't exist. Because nodding along to Corbyn and his ilk is a price worth buying for a red rosette, it seems.
[I hope I'm wrong. I never thought the PLP would try to challenge Corbyn last Parliament, and they did].
The Tories do finally seem to have realised housing is an issue however theyr probably not doing enough
If the alternatives cannot appeal despite the factors that are pushing people away from the top two, then the shares of the top two probably won't alter much. Either tribalism sees them turn out anyway, or it becomes a game of who will be most impacted by people staying at home.
My personal view is that would be the Tories because of the 12 years in power factor, assuming we get to 2022. More people willing to hold their nose for the chance to get the Tories out than those doing so to keep them in after so long.
What the EU are proposing is that NI remains in the CU and the SM. The 'soft border' they are talking about is a soft Irish Sea border. But the critical reality is that you won't be able to send anything from the UK to NI which does not comply with EU regulations. A complete non-starter for the DUP, or ERG, or frankly anyone who has any degree of principle.
It does obviously raise the question as to why a soft border is possible in the Irish Sea and not at, er, the real border. But the UK and EU are still talking past each other on this issue. You can't fudge this. If NI is in the CU and SM, it will be a vassal state of the EU regardless of how much Barnier wants to 'de-dramatise' the resultant checks. May has said no PM can accept this. If she tries to sell out, the DUP will vote her out before she gets back from Brussels.
But I also agree with other posters that the electoral landscape now - whatever its true state - is a poor guide to what it will be like in four years' time or whenever the election is held. I think the Tories are doing quite well to be above water at all at the moment, but really I wouldn't hazard a guess to what we'll all be thinking in 2019, never mind 2022.
There have been arguments made against our proposals that have been at odds with the reality of trade negotiations elsewhere and indeed the current trading relationship between EU member states.
For instance it is said that goods and services cannot be separated. But no free trade agreement the EU has ever concluded treats goods and services on the same basis. And most of the relevant services for goods are not covered by EU regulation in any case.
https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article181579426/Theresa-May-May-warns-EU-not-to-treat-UK-unfairly-in-Brexit-talks.html
https://www.cps.org.uk/press/press-releases/q/date/2018/09/18/cps-joins-us-uk-think-tanks-to-draft-ideal-free-trade-a/
But this is mostly window dressing now. The two sides are increasingly close. Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market. There will be no Irish sea border. And for goods travelling to the Republic there will be checks away from the border (in both Eire and NI), but it will be seamless for most.
We will accept most of the rule book on industrial goods, but does anyone (other than @archer101au) really think there is a market for electrical products that are not CE certified? But we will not subject to social legislation, CAP, CFP, the political apparatus of the EU or the requirement to treat EU citizens as if they were British.
It will not be a perfect Brexit, and it will be a starting point for further negotiations down the line. But it will be an acceptable Brexit to 70% of the British people, and 90% of British firms.
* And by which I mean the US version, where the judges are American.
It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.
It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.
One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
By two years in labour regularly had double digit poll leads.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/19/labour-conference-path-mps-crucial-brexit-vote-jeremy-corbyn
A point not brought out explicitly in the article is that very few Labour people are entirely motivated by the issue itself. Brexit - for or against - is simply not seen by most Labour MPs as quite the cataclysmic decision point that Tory MPs seem to. The pro-referendum MPs are generally also influenced by being Corbynsceptics, the pro-Brexiteers are a tiny minority, and in between there are a lot of MPs, including the leadership, who simply don't feel that strongly. In that, they reflect a very large portion of Labour voters. It's really not that Labour MPs are being told by their voters they must vote for Brexit, but that they're being told to get on with the issues that people care about more.
That IMO is why the LibDems are not breaking through - their message is not "Vote for us as the sensible centrists" but "vote for us as the EU fanatics". There are EU fanatics in the electorate, more or less including me, but there aren't enough who only care about that to make it a winning line.
On the positive side, if I ever become CFO of a public company, I know *loads* of ways to make earnings look better than they are...
A FTA using Chequers as a starting point will then be negotiated in the transition period
Mrs May knows that the later it is agreed, the more under the gun the ERG will be. The EU knows that the longer a deal takes, the harder it will be for smaller countries to throw their toys out of the pram for a concession or two, and the more likely firms are to choose the EU over the UK for investment decisions.
There are *rumours* (and they are little more than that) that Tesla might have been massaging their sales figures somewhat. The SEC and DoJ are both now doing investigations into Tesla.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45569453
In Europe, we were a more-or-less equal partner (behind France and Germany, the cynics might say). To America, we are a junior partner even if our balance of trade says we should not be. Most of our trade will continue to be with Europe simply because it is closer than America, Australia and Singapore.
Much better than Barbarians at the Gate or Pride of Lucifer which are the two people usually rave about
The EU have rejected a whole UK backstop. But if they accepted one, it would have to be time limited, which they have also rejected. If not, then the UK can never leave the backstop without EU approval and therefore the EU would have a veto on Brexit. I would be delighted if all we agreed was a time limited UK wide backstop but I know it is not going to be offered.
But just keep re-posting your talking point and ignoring the fact that you can't for one second explain how it might actually happen.
The backstop is simply a means of ensuring no hard border in Ireland and staying in the single market and customs union in all but name as Chequers was a move towards but not enough will do that.
Arranged a hearing on Monday where the person claiming Kavanaugh attempted to rape her would have to sit at the same table as Kavanaugh for 8 hours.
Now trashing the women due to her refusal to do so.
Kavanaugh will be confirmed. Anyone I can bet with on this outcome?
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1042315117168193536?s=21
Trite quotes such as 'Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market' don't make any sense, and in any event it is the customs union that is relevant. You cannot be inside and outside of a customs union. Despite the window dressing, what Barnier is proposing is that NI will operate under a separate regulatory system from the UK. If the UK ends up with different tariffs than the EU there will have to be tariffs on internal flows of goods. If the UK diverges on services regulation, NI will be bound by SM rules. The DUP will veto it.
If you can explain exactly how these problems can be solved, then I would be keen to hear it. Until then, I think we are just seeing people saying that things can be 'fudged' because it makes them feel better.
Terry Smith, while a young analyst, once produced a report which had the title:
Cannot
Recommend
At this
Price
but thats nort where the bulk of the marginals are
Basically, you have no idea how negotiations are going, and spew opinions as facts. Let me give you a few examples of things you have claimed, which are - how to put this - devoid of reality.
You asserted that the UK was not conducting talks with countries that the EU had existing FTAs with, because tthe EU had forbidden it. This was, as I pointed out at the time, completely untrue, which has been demonstrated by the government's agreements in Southern Africa.
You asserted that that the EU had never made financial demands beyond those agreed by the UK government. This was, again, completely untrue.
There are people on politicalbetting with less credibility that you. But not many.
The Kentwell - Plot 791
£465,000
Room Metres Feet and inches
Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9"
Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"
Room Metres Feet and inches
Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9"
Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9"
Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4"
Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"
Utterly bonkers.