Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BONUS PB/Polling Matters podcast: What do the boundary commiss

24

Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    DavidL said:

    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.

    Spain had 1115 passes, 79% of the possession, 23 shots on goal and 9 shots on target when they went out to Russia. Most of the time you win the game with those numbers.
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    Thinking about how the history books will describe them eh?
    'Generations yet unborn will bless me as the author of their happiness and liberty.'

    Wildly optimistic assessment of his administration by Lord Melbourne, 1836.
    Bit late in the 19th century for Jacob.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Social Democrats will expect to be part of the Government given they were largest party and if they are the Greens are not

    The current split is 144-142-63 in favour of the centre-left bloc. A Social Democrat-Moderate Coalition has 171 seats so only five short and probably workable in all honesty. If you could get the Centre, Liberals or Greens to provide support you have your majority Government.

    I agree an SD and Moderate coalition is the most likely result
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    Thinking about how the history books will describe them eh?
    'Generations yet unborn will bless me as the author of their happiness and liberty.'

    Wildly optimistic assessment of his administration by Lord Melbourne, 1836.
    "For my part, I consider that it will be found much better by all Parties to leave the past to history, especially as I propose to write that history myself. " - WInston Churchill, 1948.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.

    England lost 2 1 to Spain on Saturday and lost to Croatia in the World Cup semi final, so an improvement now given we also currently lead Switzerland?
    First half they were very poor. Not convinced by them
    Given the next World Cup is 4 years away and the next European Championships 2 years away as I said their perfomances in this tournament are of little real significance
    So footballers just turn up every 2 or 4 years and turn it on at the time.

    I watched George Best throughout his career and he turned it on each time he played over years. It is called talent and England are short of real talent
    No footballers make almost all their money from the Premier League and the Championship and the Champions League and donate their England fees to charity, albeit with a World Cup bonus (indeed George Best peaked at Manchester United).


    For the average football fan the only time international football really matters is at a major tournament once every 2 years
    And if the team has no talent it won't win any of these tournaments
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    The tale of NHS vacancies is a familiar one.

    What could cause so many to vote with their feet?
    Perhaps some of the senior people who work less hours to avoid that nasty tax problem at over 100k could just bite the bullet?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    The tale of NHS vacancies is a familiar one.

    What could cause so many to vote with their feet?
    But who is that ?

    The people leaving the NHS or the larger number who have been recruited ?

    There's 100k more employed by the NHS now than when the LibDems left government.
    Me shortly :)

    15 months to go, and I am counting.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.

    England lost 2 1 to Spain on Saturday and lost to Croatia in the World Cup semi final, so an improvement now given we also currently lead Switzerland?
    First half they were very poor. Not convinced by them
    Given the next World Cup is 4 years away and the next European Championships 2 years away as I said their perfomances in this tournament are of little real significance
    Tonight's game isn't in the "tournament". It's just an old fashioned friendly. England made 9 changes from the tournament match on Saturday. In the "nations league" they are in a group of 3 with Spain and Croatia.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
  • That is a scoop.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.

    England lost 2 1 to Spain on Saturday and lost to Croatia in the World Cup semi final, so an improvement now given we also currently lead Switzerland?
    First half they were very poor. Not convinced by them
    Given the next World Cup is 4 years away and the next European Championships 2 years away as I said their perfomances in this tournament are of little real significance
    So footballers just turn up every 2 or 4 years and turn it on at the time.

    I watched George Best throughout his career and he turned it on each time he played over years. It is called talent and England are short of real talent
    No footballers make almost all their money from the Premier League and the Championship and the Champions League and donate their England fees to charity, albeit with a World Cup bonus (indeed George Best peaked at Manchester United).


    For the average football fan the only time international football really matters is at a major tournament once every 2 years
    And if the team has no talent it won't win any of these tournaments
    No team gets to a World Cup semi final without any talent and I see England have indeed beaten Switzerland tonight
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The ERG can't plan their way out of a wet paper bag

    The Leader of the Opposition is a National Security risk

    The Labour Party is eating itself.

    And STILL the Lib Dems can't get a look in...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.

    England lost 2 1 to Spain on Saturday and lost to Croatia in the World Cup semi final, so an improvement now given we also currently lead Switzerland?
    First half they were very poor. Not convinced by them
    Given the next World Cup is 4 years away and the next European Championships 2 years away as I said their perfomances in this tournament are of little real significance
    Tonight's game isn't in the "tournament". It's just an old fashioned friendly. England made 9 changes from the tournament match on Saturday. In the "nations league" they are in a group of 3 with Spain and Croatia.
    That is precisely the point, these matches are just glorified friendlies
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,778
    edited September 2018
    glw said:
    Read this thread and the reply.

    Stuff is going on.

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1039254861836152832
  • Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.

    England lost 2 1 to Spain on Saturday and lost to Croatia in the World Cup semi final, so an improvement now given we also currently lead Switzerland?
    First half they were very poor. Not convinced by them
    Given the next World Cup is 4 years away and the next European Championships 2 years away as I said their perfomances in this tournament are of little real significance
    Tonight's game isn't in the "tournament". It's just an old fashioned friendly. England made 9 changes from the tournament match on Saturday. In the "nations league" they are in a group of 3 with Spain and Croatia.
    That is precisely the point, these matches are just glorified friendlies
    ? England-Switzerland isn't a "glorified friendly". It's a friendly. Nothing glorified about it. England-Spain was the glorified friendly.

    Apparently for some of the weaker teams in the competition in the lower ranked groups it offers an alternative route to the European Finals to the usual qualification route.
  • Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    They are so stupid they are likely to lose Brexit altogether. Even at 80 they do not have the numbers and they certainly do not have the Parliamentary numbers
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    They are so stupid they are likely to lose Brexit altogether. Even at 80 they do not have the numbers and they certainly do not have the Parliamentary numbers
    Well if you believe Boris he's on the verge of supporting staying in the EU.
  • Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    If they had the numbers, they would have acted by now. It is not as if they don't have history with pushing out leaders.

    Now if only they could teach the spineless Labour MPs how to do it...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Scott_P said:
    They can say what they want they do not have the numbers to topple her and if she wins she is safe for a year past Brexit
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Social Democrats will expect to be part of the Government given they were largest party and if they are the Greens are not

    The current split is 144-142-63 in favour of the centre-left bloc. A Social Democrat-Moderate Coalition has 171 seats so only five short and probably workable in all honesty. If you could get the Centre, Liberals or Greens to provide support you have your majority Government.

    A grand coalition in other words.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    Jezza's mates are real charmers...

    Jeremy Corbyn praised an activist who smeared graffiti on the walls of the Warsaw ghetto and called for Israeli MPs to be assassinated, calling her a ‘very good friend’, a MailOnline exclusive can reveal.

    Ewa Jasiewicz, 40, is due to speak at a Momentum festival this month on the fringes of the Labour conference.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6156275/Jeremy-Corbyn-praised-activist-smeared-pro-Palestine-graffiti-walls-Warsaw-ghetto.html
  • Do we have the left's version of The Plumbers in action?
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    edited September 2018

    Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    They are so stupid they are likely to lose Brexit altogether. Even at 80 they do not have the numbers and they certainly do not have the Parliamentary numbers
    You continue to live in your land of delusion where May actually has a Brexit plan that might work. She has been told the customs partnership is a non starter, which means a full customs union, which means no independent trade policy, which means Chequers is as dead as a doornail. Yet somehow you still seem to think it is unreasonable for Leavers to oppose a plan that has no chance of being agreed. Who is being stupid exactly?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    glw said:
    I point you to the most recent episode of the Sam Harris podcast for more examples of where we are headed....

    #137 - SAFE SPACE - A Conversation with Jonathan Haidt
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
  • alex. said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    They are so stupid they are likely to lose Brexit altogether. Even at 80 they do not have the numbers and they certainly do not have the Parliamentary numbers
    Well if you believe Boris he's on the verge of supporting staying in the EU.
    After tonights news on Jaguar Land Rover and by default the car industry and Airbus, staying in is becoming more atractive by the day. And JRM has just blustered through an interview eventually accepting frictionless trade would not be possible, but he said the customs delays would not be too bad.


  • glwglw Posts: 9,916

    glw said:
    Read this thread and the reply.

    Stuff is going on.

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1039254861836152832
    Hmmm. I'm currently reading Red Famine, so my sense of humour about such things is at an all-time low.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    If they had the numbers, they would have acted by now. It is not as if they don't have history with pushing out leaders.

    Now if only they could teach the spineless Labour MPs how to do it...
    By Christmas we could end up with over 100 Tory MPs having given a no confidence vote in the PM to match the 172 Labour MPs who have given a no confidence vote in the Leader of the Opposition but both May and Corbyn still in place
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    "Two different escape options are being looked at. Under the first, Chequers will be parked until talks resume after Brexit day for a loosely-worded fudge on the future relationship instead.
    The second option is to abandon it altogether and return to a more basic Canada style free trade agreement - but only if the EU gives way on its Irish border hardline.

    One Cabinet minister told The Sun: “Plan A is the EU27 show enough leg to keep Chequers alive, at least until after conference.
    “That’s far from clear yet, so we need a Plan B.
    That is, if you’re in a cul de sac the best way to get out of it is fast.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7234952/plans-dump-chequers-brexit-proposal/
  • Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Worse than what happened to Puerto Rica?

    https://twitter.com/abradacabla/status/1039601752742526976
    It's amazing how the Dems have failed to make any hay out of the botched relief effort In Puerto Rico.
    If Trump voters cared what happened to brown people they wouldn't be Trump voters.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    edited September 2018

    My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.

    Thank you for the link, which I read with increasing anger. The authors recommended:

    * 1) substantial further devaluation (down a further 30% from the present $1:35: holy s**t!)
    * 2) government-funded housebuilding
    * 3) domestication of supply chains (by making imports more expensive)
    * 4) some unspecified uncosted method of compensating people from the (unspoken but implied) inflation pulse that that would bring

    The only thing in that farrago I agree with is (2), and it's the least likely to be implemented...

    From previous comments I seem to remember that you believe devaluation makes you richer, but I don't. This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.
  • Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    They are so stupid they are likely to lose Brexit altogether. Even at 80 they do not have the numbers and they certainly do not have the Parliamentary numbers
    You continue to live in your land of delusion where May actually has a Brexit plan that might work. She has been told the customs partnership is a non starter, which means a full customs union, which means no independent trade policy, which means Chequers is as dead as a doornail. Yet somehow you still seem to think it is unreasonable for Leavers to oppose a plan that has no chance of being agreed. Who is being stupid exactly?
    You lecture us from Australia when you do not have family whose future is under direct threat by the ERG who tonight have admitted their plan would not support frictionless trade JRM was incoherent in his interview

    Leave are haemorrhaging votes in our first class manufacturing businesses and the Unions have this week confirmed a big move away from leave and they are to campaign for a second referendum.

    It is TM deal or we remain
  • Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    They are so stupid they are likely to lose Brexit altogether. Even at 80 they do not have the numbers and they certainly do not have the Parliamentary numbers
    You continue to live in your land of delusion where May actually has a Brexit plan that might work. She has been told the customs partnership is a non starter, which means a full customs union, which means no independent trade policy, which means Chequers is as dead as a doornail. Yet somehow you still seem to think it is unreasonable for Leavers to oppose a plan that has no chance of being agreed. Who is being stupid exactly?
    The Ultras have no plan. Zilch. Nothing. Zero. They have had 30 years to come up with something. And they can't.

    Yesterday they abandoned announcing their 'plan' because it was so full of stupidities like slashing corporation tax to 1% or whatever and pretending Ireland doesn't exist, and there are no queues at the borders of the EU etc etc that they knew they would be slaughtered.

    Pass me another unicorn for the barbecue.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Worse than what happened to Puerto Rica?

    https://twitter.com/abradacabla/status/1039601752742526976
    It's amazing how the Dems have failed to make any hay out of the botched relief effort In Puerto Rico.
    If Trump voters cared what happened to brown people they wouldn't be Trump voters.
    A large number of Puerto Ricans have moved to Florida to join family. 135 000 according to this report, but estimates vary.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/i-m-staying-months-after-maria-puerto-ricans-settle-florida-n851826

    Approx a million Florida residents are Puerto Ricans, and as US citizens, eligible to vote. It could be critical in a close election.
  • Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    They are so stupid they are likely to lose Brexit altogether. Even at 80 they do not have the numbers and they certainly do not have the Parliamentary numbers
    You continue to live in your land of delusion where May actually has a Brexit plan that might work. She has been told the customs partnership is a non starter, which means a full customs union, which means no independent trade policy, which means Chequers is as dead as a doornail. Yet somehow you still seem to think it is unreasonable for Leavers to oppose a plan that has no chance of being agreed. Who is being stupid exactly?
    You lecture us from Australia when you do not have family whose future is under direct threat by the ERG who tonight have admitted their plan would not support frictionless trade JRM was incoherent in his interview

    Leave are haemorrhaging votes in our first class manufacturing businesses and the Unions have this week confirmed a big move away from leave and they are to campaign for a second referendum.

    It is TM deal or we remain
    Sorry, but we are leaving and if TM cannot get a deal, then there is No Deal. So you might be better advised to argue for a deal that actually can get done.

    Frictionless trade is not necessary for the UK economy. Everyone else in the World (yes, including Australia) manages trade without being in the Single Market.
  • viewcode said:

    My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.

    Thank you for the link, which I read with increasing anger. The authors recommended:

    * 1) substantial further devaluation (down a further 30% from the present $1:35: holy s**t!)
    * 2) government-funded housebuilding
    * 3) domestication of supply chains (by making imports more expensive)
    * 4) some unspecified uncosted method of compensating people from the (unspoken but implied) inflation pulse that that would bring

    The only thing in that farrago I agree with is (2), and it's the least likely to be implemented...

    From previous comments I seem to remember that you believe devaluation makes you richer, but I don't. This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.
    Well if people want a higher sterling rate they can:

    Create more wealth
    Live within their means
    Increase their savings rate

    As British governments and people have shown a disinclination to do those in recent decades then its going to be a lower sterling rate in order to boost exports.

    Unless that is the rest of the world is willing to lower their standard of living so that this country can have a higher standard of living than it earns.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    They are so stupid they are likely to lose Brexit altogether. Even at 80 they do not have the numbers and they certainly do not have the Parliamentary numbers
    Well if you believe Boris he's on the verge of supporting staying in the EU.
    After tonights news on Jaguar Land Rover and by default the car industry and Airbus, staying in is becoming more atractive by the day. And JRM has just blustered through an interview eventually accepting frictionless trade would not be possible, but he said the customs delays would not be too bad.

    I don't want to further depress you, but staying in is not going to happen. The ERG have sufficient wealth to survive any shock caused by economic disruption and care not for you nor yours. Hague's article in the Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/10/britain-facing-worst-constitutional-crisis-200-years-will/ ) points out that there is no actual solution that will satisfy the EU, UK Govt and UK Parl, so no deal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Frictionless trade is not necessary for the UK economy.

    Just the manufacturing sector...
  • Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    They are so stupid they are likely to lose Brexit altogether. Even at 80 they do not have the numbers and they certainly do not have the Parliamentary numbers
    You continue to live in your land of delusion where May actually has a Brexit plan that might work. She has been told the customs partnership is a non starter, which means a full customs union, which means no independent trade policy, which means Chequers is as dead as a doornail. Yet somehow you still seem to think it is unreasonable for Leavers to oppose a plan that has no chance of being agreed. Who is being stupid exactly?
    The Ultras have no plan. Zilch. Nothing. Zero. They have had 30 years to come up with something. And they can't.

    Yesterday they abandoned announcing their 'plan' because it was so full of stupidities like slashing corporation tax to 1% or whatever and pretending Ireland doesn't exist, and there are no queues at the borders of the EU etc etc that they knew they would be slaughtered.

    Pass me another unicorn for the barbecue.
    The Unicorn is Chequers - a plan rejected by the EU that for some reason May keeps talking about as if it is real. Are you actually saying the EU will accept it?

    The 'Ultras' have been quite clear - they will take CETA or, if that is not available, WTO. I don't know what is unclear about this?

    The ERG 'plan' was turning into an alternative manifesto rather than a paper on an EU deal and they were probably quite right to think this was going to be a bad idea. I understand tomorrow JRM will release his plan on the NI border, which has always been easy to solve. Once this is done, there is a clear path for CETA.
  • Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    They are so stupid they are likely to lose Brexit altogether. Even at 80 they do not have the numbers and they certainly do not have the Parliamentary numbers
    You continue to live in your land of delusion where May actually has a Brexit plan that might work. She has been told the customs partnership is a non starter, which means a full customs union, which means no independent trade policy, which means Chequers is as dead as a doornail. Yet somehow you still seem to think it is unreasonable for Leavers to oppose a plan that has no chance of being agreed. Who is being stupid exactly?
    The Ultras have no plan. Zilch. Nothing. Zero. They have had 30 years to come up with something. And they can't.

    Yesterday they abandoned announcing their 'plan' because it was so full of stupidities like slashing corporation tax to 1% or whatever and pretending Ireland doesn't exist, and there are no queues at the borders of the EU etc etc that they knew they would be slaughtered.

    Pass me another unicorn for the barbecue.
    The Unicorn is Chequers - a plan rejected by the EU that for some reason May keeps talking about as if it is real. Are you actually saying the EU will accept it?

    The 'Ultras' have been quite clear - they will take CETA or, if that is not available, WTO. I don't know what is unclear about this?

    The ERG 'plan' was turning into an alternative manifesto rather than a paper on an EU deal and they were probably quite right to think this was going to be a bad idea. I understand tomorrow JRM will release his plan on the NI border, which has always been easy to solve. Once this is done, there is a clear path for CETA.
    I look forward to Mogg's plan for the border. As it is so easy to solve it is clearly a mystery why 1000s of civil servants and ministers have so failed to come up with a solution.

    I suspect it will involve unicorns though.
  • HYUFD said:

    "Two different escape options are being looked at. Under the first, Chequers will be parked until talks resume after Brexit day for a loosely-worded fudge on the future relationship instead.
    The second option is to abandon it altogether and return to a more basic Canada style free trade agreement - but only if the EU gives way on its Irish border hardline.

    One Cabinet minister told The Sun: “Plan A is the EU27 show enough leg to keep Chequers alive, at least until after conference.
    “That’s far from clear yet, so we need a Plan B.
    That is, if you’re in a cul de sac the best way to get out of it is fast.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7234952/plans-dump-chequers-brexit-proposal/
    CETA here we come. There is no way the first plan will work, as May will have to agree to the NI backstop and the money in return for nothing - a deal that is so easy for Labour to vote against they won't even need to think about it. No chance of this passing Parliament. The UK literally get nothing out of it.

    As I have been saying since December last year, the only way there is going to be a deal is if the NI backstop is dropped.
  • viewcode said:

    This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.

    Only some of the people, generally those reliant on incomes not guaranteed to keep pace with inflation. Anyone with an inflation-linked income, or ownership of income-generating assets, would not be so negatively affected.

    In that respect it is similar to the plan used to kick-start the West German economy, which was wildly successful, but I might hope the British economy wasn't in as dire a state as the German economy post-WWII.
  • Frictionless trade is not necessary for the UK economy.

    Regardless of whether you have a point economically, you are clearly wrong politically. The UK needs frictionless trade between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and therefore the EU.
  • Scott_P said:
    Yeh, yeh. Another day, another load of crap from the 50 (if it is even that) malcontents.

    They haven't got the numbers.
    They are so stupid they are likely to lose Brexit altogether. Even at 80 they do not have the numbers and they certainly do not have the Parliamentary numbers
    You continue to live in your land of delusion where May actually has a Brexit plan that might work. She has been told the customs partnership is a non starter, which means a full customs union, which means no independent trade policy, which means Chequers is as dead as a doornail. Yet somehow you still seem to think it is unreasonable for Leavers to oppose a plan that has no chance of being agreed. Who is being stupid exactly?
    You lecture us from Australia when you do not have family whose future is under direct threat by the ERG who tonight have admitted their plan would not support frictionless trade JRM was incoherent in his interview

    Leave are haemorrhaging votes in our first class manufacturing businesses and the Unions have this week confirmed a big move away from leave and they are to campaign for a second referendum.

    It is TM deal or we remain
    Sorry, but we are leaving and if TM cannot get a deal, then there is No Deal. So you might be better advised to argue for a deal that actually can get done.

    Frictionless trade is not necessary for the UK economy. Everyone else in the World (yes, including Australia) manages trade without being in the Single Market.
    Your last sentence is nonsense. Jaguar Land Rover today has openly said 80 billion of investment will be lost into the UK by them alone. The media tonight are dreadful for ERG and the paper reviewers have said that Chequers addresses the manufacturers concerns and the media coverage today is very good news for TM

  • I look forward to Mogg's plan for the border. As it is so easy to solve it is clearly a mystery why 1000s of civil servants and ministers have so failed to come up with a solution.

    I suspect it will involve unicorns though.

    It will involve expecting the EU to be pragmatic and accepting that there will be a customs border and that it is not the job of the UK to reconfigure its constitutional arrangements to make running the single market a bit easier.

    But if you mean will the plan work in practice, of course it will. The issue has never been the plan. The issue is that the NI backstop was a catastrophic mistake by May and just a negotiating tactic to allow the EU to renege on the political declaration. It is a political issue, not a practical one - the EU must back down or there will be no deal.
  • Scott_P said:

    Frictionless trade is not necessary for the UK economy.

    Just the manufacturing sector...
    There is manufacturing outside the EU. Quite a lot more of it, in fact.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141

    viewcode said:

    My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.

    Thank you for the link, which I read with increasing anger. The authors recommended:

    * 1) substantial further devaluation (down a further 30% from the present $1:35: holy s**t!)
    * 2) government-funded housebuilding
    * 3) domestication of supply chains (by making imports more expensive)
    * 4) some unspecified uncosted method of compensating people from the (unspoken but implied) inflation pulse that that would bring

    The only thing in that farrago I agree with is (2), and it's the least likely to be implemented...

    From previous comments I seem to remember that you believe devaluation makes you richer, but I don't. This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.
    Well if people want a higher sterling rate they can:

    Create more wealth
    Live within their means
    Increase their savings rate

    As British governments and people have shown a disinclination to do those in recent decades then its going to be a lower sterling rate in order to boost exports.

    Unless that is the rest of the world is willing to lower their standard of living so that this country can have a higher standard of living than it earns.
    I actually agree with you, but I think the implications are not understood, or at least bellyfelt. And the way the article authors danced around this point annoyed me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    HYUFD said:

    "Two different escape options are being looked at. Under the first, Chequers will be parked until talks resume after Brexit day for a loosely-worded fudge on the future relationship instead.
    The second option is to abandon it altogether and return to a more basic Canada style free trade agreement - but only if the EU gives way on its Irish border hardline.

    One Cabinet minister told The Sun: “Plan A is the EU27 show enough leg to keep Chequers alive, at least until after conference.
    “That’s far from clear yet, so we need a Plan B.
    That is, if you’re in a cul de sac the best way to get out of it is fast.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7234952/plans-dump-chequers-brexit-proposal/
    CETA here we come. There is no way the first plan will work, as May will have to agree to the NI backstop and the money in return for nothing - a deal that is so easy for Labour to vote against they won't even need to think about it. No chance of this passing Parliament. The UK literally get nothing out of it.

    As I have been saying since December last year, the only way there is going to be a deal is if the NI backstop is dropped.
    No, most likely it will be single market and customs union in all but name with a work permits on arrival requirement and a vague promise to still do our own trade deals. CETA is impossible as the DUP will veto it as it requires a border in the Irish Sea. Labour MPs like Kinnock and Umunna oppose Chequers as it takes us out of the single market for services still, so May will likely cave on that in the end to get the Withdrawal Agreement and transition period.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited September 2018
    John Kerry quite interesting on newsnight about Syria and the problems of globalisation and cultural and economic change and the future of the Democratic Party, says bar a few successes on his agenda Trump will be judged 'the worst President in American History'

  • I look forward to Mogg's plan for the border. As it is so easy to solve it is clearly a mystery why 1000s of civil servants and ministers have so failed to come up with a solution.

    I suspect it will involve unicorns though.

    It will involve expecting the EU to be pragmatic and accepting that there will be a customs border and that it is not the job of the UK to reconfigure its constitutional arrangements to make running the single market a bit easier.

    But if you mean will the plan work in practice, of course it will. The issue has never been the plan. The issue is that the NI backstop was a catastrophic mistake by May and just a negotiating tactic to allow the EU to renege on the political declaration. It is a political issue, not a practical one - the EU must back down or there will be no deal.
    You lost your argument in the first paragraph. Expecting the EU to be pragmatic is for the birds

  • Well... given who she is working for, having concerns about her close associates is understandable!

    Joking aside, how on earth can this be defended? It clearly can't.

    But it explains why Corbyn and his close associates favour dismantling our security services.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141

    viewcode said:

    This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.

    Only some of the people, generally those reliant on incomes not guaranteed to keep pace with inflation...
    That's quite a lot of people!
  • Scott_P said:

    Frictionless trade is not necessary for the UK economy.

    Just the manufacturing sector...
    There is manufacturing outside the EU. Quite a lot more of it, in fact.
    How many cars are manufactured in Australia?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726

    HYUFD said:

    "Two different escape options are being looked at. Under the first, Chequers will be parked until talks resume after Brexit day for a loosely-worded fudge on the future relationship instead.
    The second option is to abandon it altogether and return to a more basic Canada style free trade agreement - but only if the EU gives way on its Irish border hardline.

    One Cabinet minister told The Sun: “Plan A is the EU27 show enough leg to keep Chequers alive, at least until after conference.
    “That’s far from clear yet, so we need a Plan B.
    That is, if you’re in a cul de sac the best way to get out of it is fast.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7234952/plans-dump-chequers-brexit-proposal/
    CETA here we come. There is no way the first plan will work, as May will have to agree to the NI backstop and the money in return for nothing - a deal that is so easy for Labour to vote against they won't even need to think about it. No chance of this passing Parliament. The UK literally get nothing out of it.

    As I have been saying since December last year, the only way there is going to be a deal is if the NI backstop is dropped.
    Offering the backstop was the epitome of stupidity.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    viewcode said:

    My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.

    Thank you for the link, which I read with increasing anger. The authors recommended:

    * 1) substantial further devaluation (down a further 30% from the present $1:35: holy s**t!)
    * 2) government-funded housebuilding
    * 3) domestication of supply chains (by making imports more expensive)
    * 4) some unspecified uncosted method of compensating people from the (unspoken but implied) inflation pulse that that would bring

    The only thing in that farrago I agree with is (2), and it's the least likely to be implemented...

    From previous comments I seem to remember that you believe devaluation makes you richer, but I don't. This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.
    Well if people want a higher sterling rate they can:

    Create more wealth
    Live within their means
    Increase their savings rate

    As British governments and people have shown a disinclination to do those in recent decades then its going to be a lower sterling rate in order to boost exports.

    Unless that is the rest of the world is willing to lower their standard of living so that this country can have a higher standard of living than it earns.
    Leaverstan may struggle with that trilogy.

    They may well prefer the Corbyn/McDonnell vision.
  • Scott_P said:

    Frictionless trade is not necessary for the UK economy.

    Just the manufacturing sector...
    There is manufacturing outside the EU. Quite a lot more of it, in fact.
    How many cars are manufactured in Australia?
    And virtually all Airbus wings
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    How many cars are manufactured in Australia?

    Or planes.
  • Aaron Bastani tweeted the Joan Ryan "deselection express" picture yesterday, so I hope the House authorities will be asking him a few questions:

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1039276770409816066
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Scott_P said:

    Frictionless trade is not necessary for the UK economy.

    Just the manufacturing sector...
    There is manufacturing outside the EU. Quite a lot more of it, in fact.
    How many cars are manufactured in Australia?
    None since last October:

    https://money.cnn.com/2017/10/20/news/australia-gm-holden-last-car/index.html

  • Aaron Bastani tweeted the Joan Ryan "deselection express" picture yesterday, so I hope the House authorities will be asking him a few questions:

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1039276770409816066

    They will, no doubt, be using a handwriting expert - but it certainly looks like a single author based on the script.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Aaron Bastani tweeted the Joan Ryan "deselection express" picture yesterday, so I hope the House authorities will be asking him a few questions:

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1039276770409816066

    They will, no doubt, be using a handwriting expert - but it certainly looks like a single author based on the script.
    Saying that someone is thick = harmless

    Telling someone "good luck with your new career" = shocking and unacceptable abuse

    More of the double standards we know and love from @oxfordsimon
  • Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad

  • I look forward to Mogg's plan for the border. As it is so easy to solve it is clearly a mystery why 1000s of civil servants and ministers have so failed to come up with a solution.

    I suspect it will involve unicorns though.

    It will involve expecting the EU to be pragmatic and accepting that there will be a customs border and that it is not the job of the UK to reconfigure its constitutional arrangements to make running the single market a bit easier.

    But if you mean will the plan work in practice, of course it will. The issue has never been the plan. The issue is that the NI backstop was a catastrophic mistake by May and just a negotiating tactic to allow the EU to renege on the political declaration. It is a political issue, not a practical one - the EU must back down or there will be no deal.
    You lost your argument in the first paragraph. Expecting the EU to be pragmatic is for the birds

    It's not a matter of pragmatism, it's a matter of political reality. Ireland will not assent to a deal that creates a customs/regulatory border between the 26 counties and the 6 counties. Last December May accepted that reality.

    If she, or Parliament, fails to accept that now then there will be no deal. Not no trade deal. No deal on anything. Plus Britain will have demonstrated to the world that our word was not to be trusted, making any future deals much harder to achieve. How could the EU negotiate with us if we went back on our word?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
    No, as she will chuck it in favour of a fudge on services which gets the Withdrawal Agreement and the transition agreement passed and Tory MPs know if May goes they risk Boris or Mogg instead
  • GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
    Why
  • Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.

    Thank you for the link, which I read with increasing anger. The authors recommended:

    * 1) substantial further devaluation (down a further 30% from the present $1:35: holy s**t!)
    * 2) government-funded housebuilding
    * 3) domestication of supply chains (by making imports more expensive)
    * 4) some unspecified uncosted method of compensating people from the (unspoken but implied) inflation pulse that that would bring

    The only thing in that farrago I agree with is (2), and it's the least likely to be implemented...

    From previous comments I seem to remember that you believe devaluation makes you richer, but I don't. This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.
    Well if people want a higher sterling rate they can:

    Create more wealth
    Live within their means
    Increase their savings rate

    As British governments and people have shown a disinclination to do those in recent decades then its going to be a lower sterling rate in order to boost exports.

    Unless that is the rest of the world is willing to lower their standard of living so that this country can have a higher standard of living than it earns.
    Leaverstan may struggle with that trilogy.

    They may well prefer the Corbyn/McDonnell vision.
    The report suggests a lower exchange rate plus investment to increase manufacturing to 15% of the economy.

    Some of the effects would be to boost the economy outside London / SE and to transfer wealth from the oldies to workers.

    It would not have the risks of the Corbyn economic plans.
  • Danny565 said:

    Aaron Bastani tweeted the Joan Ryan "deselection express" picture yesterday, so I hope the House authorities will be asking him a few questions:

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1039276770409816066

    They will, no doubt, be using a handwriting expert - but it certainly looks like a single author based on the script.
    Saying that someone is thick = harmless

    Telling someone "good luck with your new career" = shocking and unacceptable abuse

    More of the double standards we know and love from @oxfordsimon
    Oh give it a rest. I make comments on a political forum. I am not a political professional. You know that. You know that the standards required of those in the public sphere are very different to those expected of posters on here.

    I haven't made any comment on the cards other than it is sinister how they found their way onto the desk of an MP and how details from her private diary were included in the message. That is sinister and needs investigation.

    Handwriting analysis will certainly play a part in that investigation.

    You clearly have no real defence when it comes to this sort of activity within the Parliamentary estate and so you try to deflect by trying to make me out to be the villain here.

    So just give it a rest.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.

    Thank you for the link, which I read with increasing anger. The authors recommended:

    * 1) substantial further devaluation (down a further 30% from the present $1:35: holy s**t!)
    * 2) government-funded housebuilding
    * 3) domestication of supply chains (by making imports more expensive)
    * 4) some unspecified uncosted method of compensating people from the (unspoken but implied) inflation pulse that that would bring

    The only thing in that farrago I agree with is (2), and it's the least likely to be implemented...

    From previous comments I seem to remember that you believe devaluation makes you richer, but I don't. This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.
    Well if people want a higher sterling rate they can:

    Create more wealth
    Live within their means
    Increase their savings rate

    As British governments and people have shown a disinclination to do those in recent decades then its going to be a lower sterling rate in order to boost exports.

    Unless that is the rest of the world is willing to lower their standard of living so that this country can have a higher standard of living than it earns.
    Leaverstan may struggle with that trilogy.

    They may well prefer the Corbyn/McDonnell vision.
    The report suggests a lower exchange rate plus investment to increase manufacturing to 15% of the economy.

    Some of the effects would be to boost the economy outside London / SE and to transfer wealth from the oldies to workers.

    It would not have the risks of the Corbyn economic plans.
    I am not a big fan of McDonnell's economic plans, but if I was in the gig economy he would have my interest and attention after his speech today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.

    Thank you for the link, which I read with increasing anger. The authors recommended:

    * 1) substantial further devaluation (down a further 30% from the present $1:35: holy s**t!)
    * 2) government-funded housebuilding
    * 3) domestication of supply chains (by making imports more expensive)
    * 4) some unspecified uncosted method of compensating people from the (unspoken but implied) inflation pulse that that would bring

    The only thing in that farrago I agree with is (2), and it's the least likely to be implemented...

    From previous comments I seem to remember that you believe devaluation makes you richer, but I don't. This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.
    Well if people want a higher sterling rate they can:

    Create more wealth
    Live within their means
    Increase their savings rate

    As British governments and people have shown a disinclination to do those in recent decades then its going to be a lower sterling rate in order to boost exports.

    Unless that is the rest of the world is willing to lower their standard of living so that this country can have a higher standard of living than it earns.
    Leaverstan may struggle with that trilogy.

    They may well prefer the Corbyn/McDonnell vision.
    Not on current polls
  • Danny565 said:

    Aaron Bastani tweeted the Joan Ryan "deselection express" picture yesterday, so I hope the House authorities will be asking him a few questions:

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1039276770409816066

    They will, no doubt, be using a handwriting expert - but it certainly looks like a single author based on the script.
    Saying that someone is thick = harmless

    Telling someone "good luck with your new career" = shocking and unacceptable abuse

    More of the double standards we know and love from @oxfordsimon
    Oh give it a rest. I make comments on a political forum. I am not a political professional. You know that. You know that the standards required of those in the public sphere are very different to those expected of posters on here.

    I haven't made any comment on the cards other than it is sinister how they found their way onto the desk of an MP and how details from her private diary were included in the message. That is sinister and needs investigation.

    Handwriting analysis will certainly play a part in that investigation.

    You clearly have no real defence when it comes to this sort of activity within the Parliamentary estate and so you try to deflect by trying to make me out to be the villain here.

    So just give it a rest.
    +1
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
    No, as she will chuck it in favour of a fudge on services which gets the Withdrawal Agreement and the transition agreement passed and Tory MPs know if May goes they risk Boris or Mogg instead
    Point missed. The crux of Chequers is the customs partnership. May PROMISED (in writing by the way) that the UK would have an independent trade policy and would not be in the CU.

    The customs partnership is dead. The EU have been clear they will never accept it. So a fudge on services gets her nowhere. Chequers is dead and the only way of getting the EU onboard is to sacrifice a customs union, which will lead to the rest of the Leavers in the cabinet resigning.

    Time to move to CETA. But yes, I think May will be finished by the failure of Chequers.
  • Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    It's like she's trying to get them to bring a leadership challenge.

    Makes sense, she either makes herself safe while she BINOs or hands the whole shitshow over to some other unlucky person.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited September 2018
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.

    Thank you for the link, which I read with increasing anger. The authors recommended:

    * 1) substantial further devaluation (down a further 30% from the present $1:35: holy s**t!)
    * 2) government-funded housebuilding
    * 3) domestication of supply chains (by making imports more expensive)
    * 4) some unspecified uncosted method of compensating people from the (unspoken but implied) inflation pulse that that would bring

    The only thing in that farrago I agree with is (2), and it's the least likely to be implemented...

    From previous comments I seem to remember that you believe devaluation makes you richer, but I don't. This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.
    Well if people want a higher sterling rate they can:

    Create more wealth
    Live within their means
    Increase their savings rate

    As British governments and people have shown a disinclination to do those in recent decades then its going to be a lower sterling rate in order to boost exports.

    Unless that is the rest of the world is willing to lower their standard of living so that this country can have a higher standard of living than it earns.
    Leaverstan may struggle with that trilogy.

    They may well prefer the Corbyn/McDonnell vision.
    The report suggests a lower exchange rate plus investment to increase manufacturing to 15% of the economy.

    Some of the effects would be to boost the economy outside London / SE and to transfer wealth from the oldies to workers.

    It would not have the risks of the Corbyn economic plans.
    I am not a big fan of McDonnell's economic plans, but if I was in the gig economy he would have my interest and attention after his speech today.
    And if McDonnell then implemented his economic plans if you are working in the gig economy you would likely soon find yourself on the dole as companies will not hire with the number of regulations and rights and benefits McDonnell is proposing for non permanent workers.


    Southern European migrants are here because the jobs in the gig economy are better than the unemployment they have as the alternative back home
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
    No, as she will chuck it in favour of a fudge on services which gets the Withdrawal Agreement and the transition agreement passed and Tory MPs know if May goes they risk Boris or Mogg instead
    Point missed. The crux of Chequers is the customs partnership. May PROMISED (in writing by the way) that the UK would have an independent trade policy and would not be in the CU.

    The customs partnership is dead. The EU have been clear they will never accept it. So a fudge on services gets her nowhere. Chequers is dead and the only way of getting the EU onboard is to sacrifice a customs union, which will lead to the rest of the Leavers in the cabinet resigning.

    Time to move to CETA. But yes, I think May will be finished by the failure of Chequers.
    Wisful thinking. TM will survive any VNOC by some distance.

    You may want her gone but it is not going to happen.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    Danny565 said:

    Aaron Bastani tweeted the Joan Ryan "deselection express" picture yesterday, so I hope the House authorities will be asking him a few questions:

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1039276770409816066

    They will, no doubt, be using a handwriting expert - but it certainly looks like a single author based on the script.
    Saying that someone is thick = harmless

    Telling someone "good luck with your new career" = shocking and unacceptable abuse

    More of the double standards we know and love from @oxfordsimon
    Be honest. Sneaking into somebody's office and leaving little "I know where you live" notes is intimidatory and deliberate. I think some criticism of Labour is overblown, but some of it isn't, and this is one of them.

  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.

    Thank you for the link, which I read with increasing anger. The authors recommended:

    * 1) substantial further devaluation (down a further 30% from the present $1:35: holy s**t!)
    * 2) government-funded housebuilding
    * 3) domestication of supply chains (by making imports more expensive)
    * 4) some unspecified uncosted method of compensating people from the (unspoken but implied) inflation pulse that that would bring

    The only thing in that farrago I agree with is (2), and it's the least likely to be implemented...

    From previous comments I seem to remember that you believe devaluation makes you richer, but I don't. This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.
    Well if people want a higher sterling rate they can:

    Create more wealth
    Live within their means
    Increase their savings rate

    As British governments and people have shown a disinclination to do those in recent decades then its going to be a lower sterling rate in order to boost exports.

    Unless that is the rest of the world is willing to lower their standard of living so that this country can have a higher standard of living than it earns.
    Leaverstan may struggle with that trilogy.

    They may well prefer the Corbyn/McDonnell vision.
    The report suggests a lower exchange rate plus investment to increase manufacturing to 15% of the economy.

    Some of the effects would be to boost the economy outside London / SE and to transfer wealth from the oldies to workers.

    It would not have the risks of the Corbyn economic plans.
    I am not a big fan of McDonnell's economic plans, but if I was in the gig economy he would have my interest and attention after his speech today.
    There certainly seems to be a great deal unsatisfactory about the gig economy from what I have read.

    Its another aspect of the greed, selfishness and unwillingness to accept responsibility that some employers engage in.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    How many letters will be in before that speech?
  • Go on do it if you think you are strong enough
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited September 2018
    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
  • Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    How many letters will be in before that speech?
    Does not matter. She will win a VNOC then they cannot do anything for another year
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.

    Thank you for the link, which I read with increasing anger. The authors recommended:

    * 1) substantial further devaluation (down a further 30% from the present $1:35: holy s**t!)
    * 2) government-funded housebuilding
    * 3) domestication of supply chains (by making imports more expensive)
    * 4) some unspecified uncosted method of compensating people from the (unspoken but implied) inflation pulse that that would bring

    The only thing in that farrago I agree with is (2), and it's the least likely to be implemented...

    From previous comments I seem to remember that you believe devaluation makes you richer, but I don't. This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.
    Well if people want a higher sterling rate they can:

    Create more wealth
    Live within their means
    Increase their savings rate

    As British
    Leaverstan may struggle with that trilogy.

    They may well prefer the Corbyn/McDonnell vision.
    The report suggests a lower exchange rate plus investment to increase manufacturing to 15% of the economy.

    Some of the effects would be to boost the economy outside London / SE and to transfer wealth from the oldies to workers.

    It would not have the risks of the Corbyn economic plans.
    I am not a big fan of McDonnell's economic plans, but if I was in the gig economy he would have my interest and attention after his speech today.
    And if McDonnell then implemented his economic plans if you are working in the gig economy you would likely soon find yourself on the dole as companies will not hire with the number of regulations McDonnell is proposing for non permanent workers.


    Southern Europe migrants are here because the jobs in the gig economy are better than the unemployment they have as the alternative back home
    Yeah, the workers should just touch their forelocks and sup up the gruel in Tory Britain.

    Feel the Bern:

    https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1039173904240189441?s=19
  • Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
  • Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
  • Go on do it if you think you are strong enough
    Indeed, those plotting a coup tend to be better at covering their tracks. Otherwise it is a bit too easy to spot.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    She is quite mad. It is the problem with surrounding yourself with a bunch of people who are out of touch.

    The only way May gets through the conference without being booed is to not mention Brexit at all.
This discussion has been closed.