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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: What Chance a US-UK Free Trade Deal

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    Karting moves... Hamilton and Raikkonen know how to keep it fairly clean.

    The Mercedes won’t have the tyres to challenge for long though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    LOL, it would be a million times better than Westminster, at least we would get a say.

    It's only eight years since the PM was Scottish! Admittedly he was an eminently forgettable PM...
    For the first ten years of this millenium both UK Prime Ministers were someone born in Scotland.
    Only six out of ten in the previous millenium.

    Ok, things are improving, let's knock indy on the head.
    That should be century of course!
    I was wondering why Rosebery, Aberdeen, Bute etc had all been forgotten. Although I can understand why you would wish to forget Bute...
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    LOL, it would be a million times better than Westminster, at least we would get a say.

    It's only eight years since the PM was Scottish! Admittedly he was an eminently forgettable PM...
    For the first ten years of this millenium both UK Prime Ministers were someone born in Scotland.
    Only six out of ten in the previous millenium.

    Ok, things are improving, let's knock indy on the head.
    Balfour (four years)
    Campbell-Bannerman (two years)
    Bonar Law (one year)
    MacDonald (seven years)
    Home (one year)
    Blair (three years)

    And that is not even counting Macmillan who considered himself Scottish but was born in London.
    Six years out of the first ten years.

    I'd be very surprised to see a Scottish Labour pm again. Even a Tory one is stretching it..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Uh oh, I hope Ferrari International Assistance don't penalise Lewis.

    No further action.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    LOL, it would be a million times better than Westminster, at least we would get a say.

    It's only eight years since the PM was Scottish! Admittedly he was an eminently forgettable PM...
    ydoethur the great clunking donkey was North British, a more useless turnip you could not have found.
    An interesting reversal of the Andy Murray phenomenon! :smiley:
    You beat me to the punch there.
    Fair’s fair, though. Who’d want to claim the great clunker ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Uh oh, I hope Ferrari International Assistance don't penalise Lewis.

    Nope!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    Uh oh, I hope Ferrari International Assistance don't penalise Lewis.

    No further action.....
    A reasonable prediction for the rest of the GP.
  • England need a wicket sharpish. This is starting to look easy for India.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    malcolmg said:

    welshowl said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    McDonnell confirms Labour policy is not to have a second EU referendum and would instead call for a general election first to judge any Deal or no Deal with the EU

    So Labour will vote against any Brexit deal, in the hope that this will force a general election, where Labour will win a majority, and then be able to implement - er, what, exactly on Brexit?
    BINO, with some kind of Cameron-esque Free Movement face-saver, and they'll pretend it's transitional. They'd blame the Tories for not leaving enough time to do anything else, which would have the virtue of being true.

    I guess the SNP would vote for this too if he needs them; It removes most of the short-term practical downsides of Brexit for Scottish voters, but also gives them an upside for independence, because an independent Scotland could join the EU and get their influence back.
    Why would an independent Scotland get its influence back in the EU, it would have gone Brexit
    And a giant compared to Malta, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Estonia, etc...

    If the UK had a federal structure like the EU, Scotland's Remain vote would have constituted a veto on Brexit.
    Not Luxembourg which currently has the EU Commission President and ECJ.

    Given Qualified Majority voting on most Council of Minister decisions Scotland would have few if any vetoes on anything, especially with votes allocated based on population even with weighting
    Ireland has twice held the position occupied by the current Eurosceptic bête noire Martin Selmayr. A country like Scotland wouldn't struggle for influence, especially if it were the closest member state to a large non-EU economy...
    Scotland would be about 1.25% of the EU. It would get told what to do and like it. Just like Ireland is going to be when they are out of the Brexit limelight. (Watch that low corporate tax rate come into the Commission’s sights).

    Now all of that may, or may not deter the Scots from independence or EU membership, that’s up to them. But given many of us as a bloc of 65m thought we had bugger all influence I find the notion of 5M in Scotland having some as faintly ridiculous.
    LOL, it would be a million times better than Westminster, at least we would get a say.
    Scottish MPs make up 10% of the House of Commons, Scottish MEPs make up 1% of the European Parliament and Scotland has had fewer EU Commissioners than UK Cabinet Ministers.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,692

    Nigelb said:

    daodao said:

    I expect India to be 147 for 3 (or 4) at tea and to have won by close of play today.

    England can't expect or deserve to win given the shoddy front-order batting line up that they have.

    Now that’s the kind of comment I like.
    Keep it up.
    If England win this I'll eat a pizza with pineapple on it.
    Where can this pineapple porn be viewed?
  • NEW THREAD

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited September 2018
    malcolmg said:

    welshowl said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    McDonnell confirms Labour policy is not to have a second EU referendum and would instead call for a general election first to judge any Deal or no Deal with the EU

    So Labour will vote against any Brexit deal, in the hope that this will force a general election, where Labour will win a majority, and then be able to implement - er, what, exactly on Brexit?
    BINO, with some kind of Cameron-esque Free Movement face-saver, and they'll pretend it's transitional. They'd blame the Tories for not leaving enough time to do anything else, which would have the virtue of being true.

    I guess the SNP would vote for this too if he needs them; It removes most of the short-term practical downsides of Brexit for Scottish voters, but also gives them an upside for independence, because an independent Scotland could join the EU and get their influence back.
    Why would an independent Scotland get its influence back in the EU, it would have gone from being one of 4 nations in the UK to one of 27 in the EU and a minnow at that compared to the likes of France and Germany and Italy and Spain and Poland.

    Indeed Chequers Deal terms Brexit probably reduces the chances of Scottish independence a little as it avoids hard Brexit
    And a giant compared to Malta, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Estonia, etc...

    If the UK had a federal structure like the EU, Scotland's Remain vote would have constituted a veto on Brexit.
    Not Luxembourg which currently has the EU Commission President and ECJ.

    Given Qualified Majority voting on most Council of Minister decisions Scotland would have few if any vetoes on anything, especially with votes allocated based on population even with weighting
    Ireland has twice held the position occupied by the current Eurosceptic bête noire Martin Selmayr. A country like Scotland wouldn't struggle for influence, especially if it were the closest member state to a large non-EU economy...
    LOL, it would be a million times better than Westminster, at least we would get a say.
    Scotland would have 7 votes out of a total of 330 (based on deducting the UK's 29 votes, and adding the Jocks at the same level as the Irish, Finnish etc, which is about right). It would all be rejigged when the next batch of candidate countries accede.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    He also said he would offer the UK a Deal never given to any other country so clearly he cannot make up his mind

    https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-eu-will-offer-uk-unprecedented-deal/amp/
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    He also said he would offer the UK a Deal never given to any other country so clearly he cannot make up his mind

    https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-eu-will-offer-uk-unprecedented-deal/amp/
    Not really. A deal not given to any other country just means a bespoke deal. Obviously that's always been on the table or we wouldn't have been trying to negotiate one for two years. But the red lines remain
  • Donald Turnip is an idiot
This discussion has been closed.