My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
I think your argument needs some supporting evidence. The number of votes we won in 2017 suggests our brand was more popular on a net basis than in 2015. Gains significantly outweighed losses.
2017 was called as a Brexit election. The Conservatives also faced Jeremy Corbyn. In 2022 neither of those conditions will necessarily apply. The Conservatives look out of ideas, out of competence and out of charm. Where are they going to fill these gaps from?
Unemployment at a 50-year low, record house-building, restoration of public sector pay rises, improving PISA rankings for English schools, record spending on the NHS, even an operational aircraft carrier...
There will be a good story to tell. Assuming Brexit doesn’t cause the world to end, which it won’t.
Assuming people’s actual experience bears that out. I don’t think even the ‘operational aircraft carrier' is whiolly true, is it?
This is the problem with tractor stats. There's nothing much to write home about here, is there? The electorate is ungrateful. In a way, because the GFC didn't cause Danny's five million unemployed, we can't even point to a good news story in that department. Unemployment has been low since time immemorial*.
As @DavidL points out, I get no sense that the government has a long term economic plan, or indeed, a long term anything. May is very like Brown in that much of what she does seems to be tactical and reactive.
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
If Jeremey Corbyn is still Labour leader, then I think the Conservatives will win in 2022. He has a staunch band of supporters, but a somewhat larger band of opponents.
May is uninspiring, dismal, and boring, but few people find her frightening, whereas that is not true of Corbyn.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
I think your argument needs some supporting evidence. The number of votes we won in 2017 suggests our brand was more popular on a net basis than in 2015. Gains significantly outweighed losses.
2017 was called as a Brexit election. The Conservatives also faced Jeremy Corbyn. In 2022 neither of those conditions will necessarily apply. The Conservatives look out of ideas, out of competence and out of charm. Where are they going to fill these gaps from?
Unemployment at a 50-year low, record house-building, restoration of public sector pay rises, improving PISA rankings for English schools, record spending on the NHS, even an operational aircraft carrier...
There will be a good story to tell. Assuming Brexit doesn’t cause the world to end, which it won’t.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
I think your argument needs some supporting evidence. The number of votes we won in 2017 suggests our brand was more popular on a net basis than in 2015. Gains significantly outweighed losses.
2017 was called as a Brexit election. The Conservatives also faced Jeremy Corbyn. In 2022 neither of those conditions will necessarily apply. The Conservatives look out of ideas, out of competence and out of charm. Where are they going to fill these gaps from?
Unemployment at a 50-year low, record house-building, restoration of public sector pay rises, improving PISA rankings for English schools, record spending on the NHS, even an operational aircraft carrier...
There will be a good story to tell. Assuming Brexit doesn’t cause the world to end, which it won’t.
All I hear on PB is that this is the most incompetent government in history, I wonder what unemployment would be like if it was a competent government.
I've just thought of a scenario where the Tories accidentally end up with BoJo as PM, and on his first day in the job he loses a motion of confidence in the Commons because most of his MPs don't want him.
But he will be there because the membership does. So a big Fuck You to the members - and then, er, no job.
I thought Tory MPs were supposed to be self-serving?
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
If Jeremey Corbyn is still Labour leader, then I think the Conservatives will win in 2022. He has a staunch band of supporters, but a somewhat larger band of opponents.
May is uninspiring, dismal, and boring, but few people find her frightening, whereas that is not true of Corbyn.
Are we really going to have 4 more years of people finding recordings of every speech JC has made on the Middle East and pointing out that the content, as well as the panel and the audience is anti-Semitic? Surely even Labour cannot go on like this. It's embarrassing.
“That may be your GDP. It’s not my GDP” comment from the referendum is probably what needs to be burnt on every Tory MP’s forehead. In fact, every MP’s head.
It’s no use quoting a load of statistics at people if it does not bear any or much relationship with their experience. Assuming that some sort of Brexit deal is cobbled together, then everything thereafter needs to be focused on trying to make things better for those at the bottom and middle in ways that are real for them and doing so fairly.
It is no use saying that Corbynomics will destroy the country if Brexit is doing that. And even if it isn’t the country will have to work very hard post-Brexit to earn its living and will need to share the results of its work more fairly than before. So that needs to be the focus.
Only that will help challenge the Corbyn narrative not claims about the 1970’s or Venezuela or Communism.
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
If Jeremey Corbyn is still Labour leader, then I think the Conservatives will win in 2022. He has a staunch band of supporters, but a somewhat larger band of opponents.
May is uninspiring, dismal, and boring, but few people find her frightening, whereas that is not true of Corbyn.
If Labour's leader after Corbyn was a Centrist who wanted a "People's vote", why would we assume that would be popular? In 2015 the side that promised a referendum beat the side committed to staying in the EU, the referendum was then won by Leave, yet there seems to be a narrative that the thing the majority voted for is some kind of albatross around the Conservative's neck.
There is also the question of whether the Corbynites would vote for Labour under such a leader. They could well go Green or Lib Dem.
(I realise you didn't actually say the leader would be a centrist offering a second referendum)
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
I think your argument needs some supporting evidence. The number of votes we won in 2017 suggests our brand was more popular on a net basis than in 2015. Gains significantly outweighed losses.
2017 was called as a Brexit election. The Conservatives also faced Jeremy Corbyn. In 2022 neither of those conditions will necessarily apply. The Conservatives look out of ideas, out of competence and out of charm. Where are they going to fill these gaps from?
Unemployment at a 50-year low, record house-building, restoration of public sector pay rises, improving PISA rankings for English schools, record spending on the NHS, even an operational aircraft carrier...
There will be a good story to tell. Assuming Brexit doesn’t cause the world to end, which it won’t.
Assuming people’s actual experience bears that out. I don’t think even the ‘operational aircraft carrier' is whiolly true, is it?
It will be by 2022, when we next have a general election.
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
If Jeremey Corbyn is still Labour leader, then I think the Conservatives will win in 2022. He has a staunch band of supporters, but a somewhat larger band of opponents.
May is uninspiring, dismal, and boring, but few people find her frightening, whereas that is not true of Corbyn.
Are we really going to have 4 more years of people finding recordings of every speech JC has made on the Middle East and pointing out that the content, as well as the panel and the audience is anti-Semitic? Surely even Labour cannot go on like this. It's embarrassing.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
I think your argument needs some supporting evidence. The number of votes we won in 2017 suggests our brand was more popular on a net basis than in 2015. Gains significantly outweighed losses.
2017 was called as a Brexit election. The Conservatives also faced Jeremy Corbyn. In 2022 neither of those conditions will necessarily apply. The Conservatives look out of ideas, out of competence and out of charm. Where are they going to fill these gaps from?
Unemployment at a 50-year low, record house-building, restoration of public sector pay rises, improving PISA rankings for English schools, record spending on the NHS, even an operational aircraft carrier...
There will be a good story to tell. Assuming Brexit doesn’t cause the world to end, which it won’t.
Assuming people’s actual experience bears that out. I don’t think even the ‘operational aircraft carrier' is whiolly true, is it?
It's technically true now, never mind for 2022, in that the RN has a carrier which is operating and carrying aircraft (though not fixed winged ones). By 2022, at least one and possibly both carriers will be fully operational and capable of deployment on active service.
We keep hearing how Brexit will wreck the car industry, but clearly Aston Martin’s investors don’t think it will depress their valuation too much.
Expensive toys for the rich. Jam for the rich, bread and scrape for everyone else.
I don’t think the workers at Aston Martin’s new factory in South Wales would agree with your assessment.
There will always be rich people in the world. There is no shame making things that they want to buy, especially if it creates employment and wealth in poorer parts of the country. What’s your alternative for these people?
We keep hearing how Brexit will wreck the car industry, but clearly Aston Martin’s investors don’t think it will depress their valuation too much.
Yes, the top end of the British car industry is world class and booming. Aston, Rolls Royce, Bentley, Lotus all have record order books, and McLaren have come from nowhere seven years ago to giving Ferrari a serious run for their money. Also the motor racing industry, which aside from F1 even makes most of the cars that race in American series.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
I think your argument needs some supporting evidence. The number of votes we won in 2017 suggests our brand was more popular on a net basis than in 2015. Gains significantly outweighed losses.
2017 was called as a Brexit election. The Conservatives also faced Jeremy Corbyn. In 2022 neither of those conditions will necessarily apply. The Conservatives look out of ideas, out of competence and out of charm. Where are they going to fill these gaps from?
Unemployment at a 50-year low, record house-building, restoration of public sector pay rises, improving PISA rankings for English schools, record spending on the NHS, even an operational aircraft carrier...
There will be a good story to tell. Assuming Brexit doesn’t cause the world to end, which it won’t.
Things were going pretty well in 1997 too.
Not for the millions who suffered from negative equity in the 1990s. That won’t be the case in 2022.
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
If Jeremey Corbyn is still Labour leader, then I think the Conservatives will win in 2022. He has a staunch band of supporters, but a somewhat larger band of opponents.
May is uninspiring, dismal, and boring, but few people find her frightening, whereas that is not true of Corbyn.
Are we really going to have 4 more years of people finding recordings of every speech JC has made on the Middle East and pointing out that the content, as well as the panel and the audience is anti-Semitic? Surely even Labour cannot go on like this. It's embarrassing.
I'd be very disappointed if the hard work done in closing the deficit were to be given away in tax cuts (which are politically of little value: people bank the cut, which is small at the margins anyway, and carry on).
I agree it would be much more sensibly, both morally and politically, to increase spending on social care and the NHS at, say, CPI+2% through to 2022.
To be more controversial, instead of pouring more money down the NHS drain, more funding should go to Councils to fund adult social care, the care of vulnerable children (where the real pressure is) and protecting other services.
Councils like East Sussex aren't inefficient or wasteful but are the victims of the funding structure and demographic pressures outside their control.
I also think the scandal of Police funding needs to be tackled and Boris's behaviour when in charge of the Met and overseeing the closing of stations and the reduction in Police numbers is for me the number one reason why he is unsuitable to be Prime Minister.
I thought you Conservatives believed in law and order - apparently not.
Many Police Stations are obsolete all around the country. They are no longer required by members of the public.
The ones required are to enable the police to function correctly..
In the early sixties when I was an Edinburgh Police Officer we worked from police boxes. We would go on a different set hourly beat from and to the box and if we didn't ring in after the hour, the inspector would come looking for us in the squad car. Of course we had no immediate form of communication other than a public phone.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
I think your argument needs some supporting evidence. The number of votes we won in 2017 suggests our brand was more popular on a net basis than in 2015. Gains significantly outweighed losses.
2017 was called as a Brexit election. The Conservatives also faced Jeremy Corbyn. In 2022 neither of those conditions will necessarily apply. The Conservatives look out of ideas, out of competence and out of charm. Where are they going to fill these gaps from?
Unemployment at a 50-year low, record house-building, restoration of public sector pay rises, improving PISA rankings for English schools, record spending on the NHS, even an operational aircraft carrier...
There will be a good story to tell. Assuming Brexit doesn’t cause the world to end, which it won’t.
Things were going pretty well in 1997 too.
Not for the millions who suffered from negative equity in the 1990s. That won’t be the case in 2022.
I'd be very disappointed if the hard work done in closing the deficit were to be given away in tax cuts (which are politically of little value: people bank the cut, which is small at the margins anyway, and carry on).
I agree it would be much more sensibly, both morally and politically, to increase spending on social care and the NHS at, say, CPI+2% through to 2022.
To be more controversial, instead of pouring more money down the NHS drain, more funding should go to Councils to fund adult social care, the care of vulnerable children (where the real pressure is) and protecting other services.
Councils like East Sussex aren't inefficient or wasteful but are the victims of the funding structure and demographic pressures outside their control.
I also think the scandal of Police funding needs to be tackled and Boris's behaviour when in charge of the Met and overseeing the closing of stations and the reduction in Police numbers is for me the number one reason why he is unsuitable to be Prime Minister.
I thought you Conservatives believed in law and order - apparently not.
Many Police Stations are obsolete all around the country. They are no longer required by members of the public.
The ones required are to enable the police to function correctly..
In the early sixties when I was an Edinburgh Police Officer we worked from police boxes. We would go on a different set hourly beat from and to the box and if we didn't ring in after the hour, the inspector would come looking for us in the squad car. Of course we had no immediate form of communication other than a public phone.
How times have changed
The police boxes in Edinburgh now seem to be tourist/coffee haunts.
Are we really going to have 4 more years of people finding recordings of every speech JC has made on the Middle East and pointing out that the content, as well as the panel and the audience is anti-Semitic? Surely even Labour cannot go on like this. It's embarrassing.
There are diminishing returns on unearthing the old fool's judosceptical ramblings. Nobody is surprised anymore and very few give a fuck about it.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
I think your argument needs some supporting evidence. The number of votes we won in 2017 suggests our brand was more popular on a net basis than in 2015. Gains significantly outweighed losses.
2017 was called as a Brexit election. The Conservatives also faced Jeremy Corbyn. In 2022 neither of those conditions will necessarily apply. The Conservatives look out of ideas, out of competence and out of charm. Where are they going to fill these gaps from?
Unemployment at a 50-year low, record house-building, restoration of public sector pay rises, improving PISA rankings for English schools, record spending on the NHS, even an operational aircraft carrier...
There will be a good story to tell. Assuming Brexit doesn’t cause the world to end, which it won’t.
Things were going pretty well in 1997 too.
Not for the millions who suffered from negative equity in the 1990s. That won’t be the case in 2022.
That's a bold prediction!
With historically low interest rates, low unemployment and continued high net migration? I don’t think so. We are building more houses, but not so many that prices will fall significantly.
Price stability for 5-10 years would be a good thing.
I'd be very disappointed if the hard work done in closing the deficit were to be given away in tax cuts (which are politically of little value: people bank the cut, which is small at the margins anyway, and carry on).
I agree it would be much more sensibly, both morally and politically, to increase spending on social care and the NHS at, say, CPI+2% through to 2022.
To be more controversial, instead of pouring more money down the NHS drain, more funding should go to Councils to fund adult social care, the care of vulnerable children (where the real pressure is) and protecting other services.
Councils like East Sussex aren't inefficient or wasteful but are the victims of the funding structure and demographic pressures outside their control.
I also think the scandal of Police funding needs to be tackled and Boris's behaviour when in charge of the Met and overseeing the closing of stations and the reduction in Police numbers is for me the number one reason why he is unsuitable to be Prime Minister.
I thought you Conservatives believed in law and order - apparently not.
Many Police Stations are obsolete all around the country. They are no longer required by members of the public.
The ones required are to enable the police to function correctly..
In the early sixties when I was an Edinburgh Police Officer we worked from police boxes. We would go on a different set hourly beat from and to the box and if we didn't ring in after the hour, the inspector would come looking for us in the squad car. Of course we had no immediate form of communication other than a public phone.
How times have changed
The police boxes in Edinburgh now seem to be tourist/coffee haunts.
I'd be very disappointed if the hard work done in closing the deficit were to be given away in tax cuts (which are politically of little value: people bank the cut, which is small at the margins anyway, and carry on).
I agree it would be much more sensibly, both morally and politically, to increase spending on social care and the NHS at, say, CPI+2% through to 2022.
To be more controversial, instead of pouring more money down the NHS drain, more funding should go to Councils to fund adult social care, the care of vulnerable children (where the real pressure is) and protecting other services.
Councils like East Sussex aren't inefficient or wasteful but are the victims of the funding structure and demographic pressures outside their control.
I also think the scandal of Police funding needs to be tackled and Boris's behaviour when in charge of the Met and overseeing the closing of stations and the reduction in Police numbers is for me the number one reason why he is unsuitable to be Prime Minister.
I thought you Conservatives believed in law and order - apparently not.
Many Police Stations are obsolete all around the country. They are no longer required by members of the public.
The ones required are to enable the police to function correctly..
In the early sixties when I was an Edinburgh Police Officer we worked from police boxes. We would go on a different set hourly beat from and to the box and if we didn't ring in after the hour, the inspector would come looking for us in the squad car. Of course we had no immediate form of communication other than a public phone.
How times have changed
The police boxes in Edinburgh now seem to be tourist/coffee haunts.
I noticed that when I was there last month. My daughter took a photo of a couple and has gone round the family and on facebook saying 'My Dad used to work in one of these' !!
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
I think your argument needs some supporting evidence. The number of votes we won in 2017 suggests our brand was more popular on a net basis than in 2015. Gains significantly outweighed losses.
2017 was called as a Brexit election. The Conservatives also faced Jeremy Corbyn. In 2022 neither of those conditions will necessarily apply. The Conservatives look out of ideas, out of competence and out of charm. Where are they going to fill these gaps from?
Unemployment at a 50-year low, record house-building, restoration of public sector pay rises, improving PISA rankings for English schools, record spending on the NHS, even an operational aircraft carrier...
There will be a good story to tell. Assuming Brexit doesn’t cause the world to end, which it won’t.
Assuming people’s actual experience bears that out. I don’t think even the ‘operational aircraft carrier' is whiolly true, is it?
It's technically true now, never mind for 2022, in that the RN has a carrier which is operating and carrying aircraft (though not fixed winged ones). By 2022, at least one and possibly both carriers will be fully operational and capable of deployment on active service.
Even the US have only just started sea-trials with the F-35C:
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
I think your argument needs some supporting evidence. The number of votes we won in 2017 suggests our brand was more popular on a net basis than in 2015. Gains significantly outweighed losses.
2017 was called as a Brexit election. The Conservatives also faced Jeremy Corbyn. In 2022 neither of those conditions will necessarily apply. The Conservatives look out of ideas, out of competence and out of charm. Where are they going to fill these gaps from?
Unemployment at a 50-year low, record house-building, restoration of public sector pay rises, improving PISA rankings for English schools, record spending on the NHS, even an operational aircraft carrier...
There will be a good story to tell. Assuming Brexit doesn’t cause the world to end, which it won’t.
Things were going pretty well in 1997 too.
Not for the millions who suffered from negative equity in the 1990s. That won’t be the case in 2022.
That's a bold prediction!
This piece tallies with my own research, ... it'll be the newbuild (And the more recently built, probably the worse it may well be) Help2Buyers in the shit if house prices don't head north indefinitely.
Are we really going to have 4 more years of people finding recordings of every speech JC has made on the Middle East and pointing out that the content, as well as the panel and the audience is anti-Semitic? Surely even Labour cannot go on like this. It's embarrassing.
There are diminishing returns on unearthing the old fool's judosceptical ramblings. Nobody is surprised anymore and very few give a fuck about it.
I think we passed that point a little while ago to be honest. Anyone who has not recognised anti-Semitism by now is never going to.
Yes, the top end of the British car industry is world class and booming. Aston, Rolls Royce, Bentley, Lotus all have record order books, and McLaren have come from nowhere seven years ago to giving Ferrari a serious run for their money. Also the motor racing industry, which aside from F1 even makes most of the cars that race in American series.
The problem McLaren have to crack (apart from abysmal build quality but that's just a given for low volume OEMs with no larger parent group) is their woeful depreciation. Hence their recent obsession with limited run special editions.
This lack of economy of scale really hurts them in the product life cycle. They are still using the Ricardo built Nissan derived engine they started with in the MP4. Mercedes would be a good fit.
Also, all of the cars raced in Indy and IndyLights have Dallara chassis made in Italy. NASCAR chassis are made in Good Old Uncle US of Stateside.
We keep hearing how Brexit will wreck the car industry, but clearly Aston Martin’s investors don’t think it will depress their valuation too much.
Expensive toys for the rich. Jam for the rich, bread and scrape for everyone else.
I don’t think the workers at Aston Martin’s new factory in South Wales would agree with your assessment.
There will always be rich people in the world. There is no shame making things that they want to buy, especially if it creates employment and wealth in poorer parts of the country. What’s your alternative for these people?
I’m glad the factory is in S Wales. The area has suffered enough. More than enough. I wonder, though, how many are on minimum wage? To be fair I would expect there are some decent bonuses about, too.
Not for the millions who suffered from negative equity in the 1990s. That won’t be the case in 2022.
That's a bold prediction!
This piece tallies with my own research, ... it'll be the newbuild (And the more recently built, probably the worse it may well be) Help2Buyers in the shit if house prices don't head north indefinitely.
I was at a wedding last Friday and a number of people there (including the two getting married) have done H2B. It really worries me and I'm telling other friends of mine not to touch it with a barge pole.
I'd be very disappointed if the hard work done in closing the deficit were to be given away in tax cuts (which are politically of little value: people bank the cut, which is small at the margins anyway, and carry on).
I agree it would be much more sensibly, both morally and politically, to increase spending on social care and the NHS at, say, CPI+2% through to 2022.
To be more controversial, instead of pouring more money down the NHS drain, more funding should go to Councils to fund adult social care, the care of vulnerable children (where the real pressure is) and protecting other services.
Councils like East Sussex aren't inefficient or wasteful but are the victims of the funding structure and demographic pressures outside their control.
I also think the scandal of Police funding needs to be tackled and Boris's behaviour when in charge of the Met and overseeing the closing of stations and the reduction in Police numbers is for me the number one reason why he is unsuitable to be Prime Minister.
I thought you Conservatives believed in law and order - apparently not.
Many Police Stations are obsolete all around the country. They are no longer required by members of the public.
The ones required are to enable the police to function correctly..
In the early sixties when I was an Edinburgh Police Officer we worked from police boxes. We would go on a different set hourly beat from and to the box and if we didn't ring in after the hour, the inspector would come looking for us in the squad car. Of course we had no immediate form of communication other than a public phone.
How times have changed
They have changed a lot , I retired from the Police after 30 years.
The Police Stations , that are required for members of the public , are for legal requirements .Such as Custody , Sex Offender Registration etc.
When I first started people had to report non urgent crimes, such as theft of a bike in person. Police Officers , hated working the front office .As there was always a long queue.With never ending recording of driving documents.
It's technically true now, never mind for 2022, in that the RN has a carrier which is operating and carrying aircraft (though not fixed winged ones). By 2022, at least one and possibly both carriers will be fully operational and capable of deployment on active service.
Definitely not both. QE will be in refit in 2022. We also won't have a second F-35B squadron by then so we will have, at best and if JFH is any guide, 4-6 deck qualified pilots.
People don't realise what harbour queens carriers are. The last but one Ark Royal (R09) spent 18 of her 29 year life in refit.
If May gets a Deal with the EU based on Chequers Deal terms it is possible she could lead the Tories through to the general election given Boris is the likely alternative.
However if we end up with No Deal Brexit or in effect a permanent transition period it is difficult to see how Boris can be stopped becoming Tory leader and PM before the next general election
Not for the millions who suffered from negative equity in the 1990s. That won’t be the case in 2022.
That's a bold prediction!
This piece tallies with my own research, ... it'll be the newbuild (And the more recently built, probably the worse it may well be) Help2Buyers in the shit if house prices don't head north indefinitely.
I was at a wedding last Friday and a number of people there (including the two getting married) have done H2B. It really worries me and I'm telling other friends of mine not to touch it with a barge pole.
I’m rather glad my grandson bought a 'second-hand’ house. Mind I think he had H2B.
On topic, she doesn't like Boris, but she also doesn't like Hammond, she hated Osborne enough to tell him off when she sacked him and make him an enemy for no good purpose, she probably doesn't like any of the rest of them either.
Help2Buy is the economics of the madhouse – a demand-side measure when the problem is with the (lack of) supply. It was never destined to end well.
I think economics 101 explains that if you improve demand then the supply will increase, subject to absolute shortages. At the time it was introduced there was a real shortage of mortgages which meant that the supply of buyers was artificially low. At the moment private construction is doing well so it has worked to some extent. Whether it has a long term future is another matter.
Not for the millions who suffered from negative equity in the 1990s. That won’t be the case in 2022.
That's a bold prediction!
This piece tallies with my own research, ... it'll be the newbuild (And the more recently built, probably the worse it may well be) Help2Buyers in the shit if house prices don't head north indefinitely.
I was at a wedding last Friday and a number of people there (including the two getting married) have done H2B. It really worries me and I'm telling other friends of mine not to touch it with a barge pole.
I’m rather glad my grandson bought a 'second-hand’ house. Mind I think he had H2B.
It'll just the ISA, that's a small government bung (Which helped my buyers used to buy my old house). The real H2B that can only be used on newbuilds is a far bigger can of worms.
If May gets a Deal with the EU based on Chequers Deal terms it is possible she could lead the Tories through to the general election given Boris is the likely alternative.
However if we end up with No Deal Brexit or in effect a permanent transition period it is difficult to see how Boris can be stopped becoming Tory leader and PM before the next general election
Which is, in itself, May's big negotiating weapon to use against Brussels. Do you want to deal with Boris - or with me?
Boris is playing a role in the final Brexit outcome - whether wittingly or not.
Not for the millions who suffered from negative equity in the 1990s. That won’t be the case in 2022.
That's a bold prediction!
This piece tallies with my own research, ... it'll be the newbuild (And the more recently built, probably the worse it may well be) Help2Buyers in the shit if house prices don't head north indefinitely.
I was at a wedding last Friday and a number of people there (including the two getting married) have done H2B. It really worries me and I'm telling other friends of mine not to touch it with a barge pole.
I’m rather glad my grandson bought a 'second-hand’ house. Mind I think he had H2B.
But that's probably the government backed mortgage scheme. I think the "here's a loan to pay for the deposit" scheme applies only to new builds.
I'd be very disappointed if the hard work done in closing the deficit were to be given away in tax cuts (which are politically of little value: people bank the cut, which is small at the margins anyway, and carry on).
I agree it would be much more sensibly, both morally and politically, to increase spending on social care and the NHS at, say, CPI+2% through to 2022.
To be more controversial, instead of pouring more money down the NHS drain, more funding should go to Councils to fund adult social care, the care of vulnerable children (where the real pressure is) and protecting other services.
Councils like East Sussex aren't inefficient or wasteful but are the victims of the funding structure and demographic pressures outside their control.
I also think the scandal of Police funding needs to be tackled and Boris's behaviour when in charge of the Met and overseeing the closing of stations and the reduction in Police numbers is for me the number one reason why he is unsuitable to be Prime Minister.
I thought you Conservatives believed in law and order - apparently not.
Many Police Stations are obsolete all around the country. They are no longer required by members of the public.
The ones required are to enable the police to function correctly..
In the early sixties when I was an Edinburgh Police Officer we worked from police boxes. We would go on a different set hourly beat from and to the box and if we didn't ring in after the hour, the inspector would come looking for us in the squad car. Of course we had no immediate form of communication other than a public phone.
How times have changed
They have changed a lot , I retired from the Police after 30 years.
The Police Stations , that are required for members of the public , are for legal requirements .Such as Custody , Sex Offender Registration etc.
When I first started people had to report non urgent crimes, such as theft of a bike in person. Police Officers , hated working the front office .As there was always a long queue.With never ending recording of driving documents.
Many years ago I stopped suddenly when someone ran onto a zebra crossing in front of me. The car following me crashed into me. As we were outside a Police Station the driver of the second car ran in and complained that I’d stopped too quickly, so I’d damaged his car. The PO on duty told him, in a somewhat tired and mildly sarcastic fashion, that normal practice was to drive so that you could stop if the venhicle in front did, and asked him if he wanted to pursue his complaint. Exit, muttering!
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
If Jeremey Corbyn is still Labour leader, then I think the Conservatives will win in 2022. He has a staunch band of supporters, but a somewhat larger band of opponents.
May is uninspiring, dismal, and boring, but few people find her frightening, whereas that is not true of Corbyn.
If Labour's leader after Corbyn was a Centrist who wanted a "People's vote", why would we assume that would be popular? In 2015 the side that promised a referendum beat the side committed to staying in the EU, the referendum was then won by Leave, yet there seems to be a narrative that the thing the majority voted for is some kind of albatross around the Conservative's neck.
There is also the question of whether the Corbynites would vote for Labour under such a leader. They could well go Green or Lib Dem.
(I realise you didn't actually say the leader would be a centrist offering a second referendum)
I don't know whether a centrist pro-EU candidate would do better. He or she would probably have a honeymoon period, though.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
If the Conservatives have 'completely trashed their credibility on the altar of Brexit' why are they still polling higher than they got at any general election from 1997 to 2010?
Are we really going to have 4 more years of people finding recordings of every speech JC has made on the Middle East and pointing out that the content, as well as the panel and the audience is anti-Semitic? Surely even Labour cannot go on like this. It's embarrassing.
There are diminishing returns on unearthing the old fool's judosceptical ramblings. Nobody is surprised anymore and very few give a fuck about it.
True, however the ammo is lined up for a grilling that could finish him off if any of the useless TV interviewers are up to it and prepared to do their homework for once. He'll avoid Andrew Neill if he has any sense but surely there is somebody half competent apart from him?
Not for the millions who suffered from negative equity in the 1990s. That won’t be the case in 2022.
That's a bold prediction!
This piece tallies with my own research, ... it'll be the newbuild (And the more recently built, probably the worse it may well be) Help2Buyers in the shit if house prices don't head north indefinitely.
I was at a wedding last Friday and a number of people there (including the two getting married) have done H2B. It really worries me and I'm telling other friends of mine not to touch it with a barge pole.
I’m rather glad my grandson bought a 'second-hand’ house. Mind I think he had H2B.
It'll just the ISA, that's a small government bung (Which helped my buyers used to buy my old house). The real H2B that can only be used on newbuilds is a far bigger can of worms.
Ah yes, that’ll be it. The other can of worms is Equity Release
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
If the Conservatives have 'completely trashed their credibility on the altar of Brexit' why are they still polling higher than they got at any general election from 1997 to 2010?
If May gets a Deal with the EU based on Chequers Deal terms it is possible she could lead the Tories through to the general election given Boris is the likely alternative.
However if we end up with No Deal Brexit or in effect a permanent transition period it is difficult to see how Boris can be stopped becoming Tory leader and PM before the next general election
Which is, in itself, May's big negotiating weapon to use against Brussels. Do you want to deal with Boris - or with me?
Boris is playing a role in the final Brexit outcome - whether wittingly or not.
Yes, Boris is now the likely alternative to May and May can say to Brussels if they will not compromise with her they really will get No Deal Brexit with Boris
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
If the Conservatives have 'completely trashed their credibility on the altar of Brexit' why are they still polling higher than they got at any general election from 1997 to 2010?
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
If the Conservatives have 'completely trashed their credibility on the altar of Brexit' why are they still polling higher than they got at any general election from 1997 to 2010?
1) Brexit hasn’t finished yet and some people support them while they’re doing the job. 2) Others support them out of antipathy to Jeremy Corbyn.
When Brexit is seen as over, group one will want new reasons to stay on board. The Conservatives offer none at present and Brexit deprives them of the means of credibly offering the traditional ones. They are also incredibly vulnerable if the Labour leader changes.
If May gets a Deal with the EU based on Chequers Deal terms it is possible she could lead the Tories through to the general election given Boris is the likely alternative.
However if we end up with No Deal Brexit or in effect a permanent transition period it is difficult to see how Boris can be stopped becoming Tory leader and PM before the next general election
Which is, in itself, May's big negotiating weapon to use against Brussels. Do you want to deal with Boris - or with me?
Boris is playing a role in the final Brexit outcome - whether wittingly or not.
Yes, Boris is now the likely alternative to May and May can say to Brussels if they will not compromise with her they really will get No Deal Brexit with Boris
And if Brexit is a disaster, or even moderately painful, Boris will get blamed.
Help2Buy is the economics of the madhouse – a demand-side measure when the problem is with the (lack of) supply. It was never destined to end well.
I think economics 101 explains that if you improve demand then the supply will increase, subject to absolute shortages. At the time it was introduced there was a real shortage of mortgages which meant that the supply of buyers was artificially low. At the moment private construction is doing well so it has worked to some extent. Whether it has a long term future is another matter.
The supply of buyers could have been fixed by the government doing something about the ludicrous mortgage affordability rules which has condemned an entire Millennial generation to spend more on rent than Generation X are paying on their mortgages. Help2Buy is, was and will forever be an unmitigated disaster, pushing up the price of naff new-build mouseholes while my generation pays less for Edwardian homes.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
If the Conservatives have 'completely trashed their credibility on the altar of Brexit' why are they still polling higher than they got at any general election from 1997 to 2010?
Jeremy Corbyn
He got the highest vote share for Labour since 2001!
Yes, the top end of the British car industry is world class and booming. Aston, Rolls Royce, Bentley, Lotus all have record order books, and McLaren have come from nowhere seven years ago to giving Ferrari a serious run for their money. Also the motor racing industry, which aside from F1 even makes most of the cars that race in American series.
The problem McLaren have to crack (apart from abysmal build quality but that's just a given for low volume OEMs with no larger parent group) is their woeful depreciation. Hence their recent obsession with limited run special editions.
This lack of economy of scale really hurts them in the product life cycle. They are still using the Ricardo built Nissan derived engine they started with in the MP4. Mercedes would be a good fit.
Also, all of the cars raced in Indy and IndyLights have Dallara chassis made in Italy. NASCAR chassis are made in Good Old Uncle US of Stateside.
But that depreciation means you can pick up a 12C for less than £100k now - if you’re prepared to deal with any bills that come up. Ironically, the major issues such as hydraulic problems tend to arise in garage queens more than daily drivers.
That Ricardo engine is now good for 800bhp in the limited Senna, and 720bhp in the ‘regular’ production 720S, which by all standards is a big step up from the older models and beats anything else in its class down the strip and round the track. Going down the Mercedes route (like Aston and others) wouldn’t give them enough of a differentiator.
Yes, I’d forgotten that IndyCar were now all Dallaras, they used to be Lolas and Reynards. I always found it ironic that the Septics couldn’t make themselves an open wheeled car and looked to Europe for them.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
If the Conservatives have 'completely trashed their credibility on the altar of Brexit' why are they still polling higher than they got at any general election from 1997 to 2010?
Jeremy Corbyn
Labour's problem is that if they change leader to someone more voter friendly, Chukka for example, the Momentum crowd will revolt, splitting the party.
It's technically true now, never mind for 2022, in that the RN has a carrier which is operating and carrying aircraft (though not fixed winged ones). By 2022, at least one and possibly both carriers will be fully operational and capable of deployment on active service.
Definitely not both. QE will be in refit in 2022. We also won't have a second F-35B squadron by then so we will have, at best and if JFH is any guide, 4-6 deck qualified pilots.
People don't realise what harbour queens carriers are. The last but one Ark Royal (R09) spent 18 of her 29 year life in refit.
That is a stunning statistic. Would some of that be just to save money on fuel etc?
Are we really going to have 4 more years of people finding recordings of every speech JC has made on the Middle East and pointing out that the content, as well as the panel and the audience is anti-Semitic? Surely even Labour cannot go on like this. It's embarrassing.
There are diminishing returns on unearthing the old fool's judosceptical ramblings. Nobody is surprised anymore and very few give a fuck about it.
I think we passed that point a little while ago to be honest. Anyone who has not recognised anti-Semitism by now is never going to.
Agreed. The costs to Labour are (1) opportunity cost and morale; and (2) if something is found, more recently, which links Corbyn to some outrage now which goes beyond what we already know. Unlikely. But who can say.
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
If Jeremey Corbyn is still Labour leader, then I think the Conservatives will win in 2022. He has a staunch band of supporters, but a somewhat larger band of opponents.
May is uninspiring, dismal, and boring, but few people find her frightening, whereas that is not true of Corbyn.
I think that’s true provided May can keep her parliamentary party under control.
I’d expect UKIP to spike regardless but GE2022 would focus minds in the marginals if Corbyn is still leader.
If she gets it badly wrong she’ll be down to 270 seats and out of office.
Not for the millions who suffered from negative equity in the 1990s. That won’t be the case in 2022.
That's a bold prediction!
This piece tallies with my own research, ... it'll be the newbuild (And the more recently built, probably the worse it may well be) Help2Buyers in the shit if house prices don't head north indefinitely.
I was at a wedding last Friday and a number of people there (including the two getting married) have done H2B. It really worries me and I'm telling other friends of mine not to touch it with a barge pole.
I’m rather glad my grandson bought a 'second-hand’ house. Mind I think he had H2B.
It'll just the ISA, that's a small government bung (Which helped my buyers used to buy my old house). The real H2B that can only be used on newbuilds is a far bigger can of worms.
Ah yes, that’ll be it. The other can of worms is Equity Release
ER is the next big scandal, there’s going to be loads of pensioners who thought they’d signed up for modest weigh release and find out later that 30 years of compound interest (at much higher than mortgage rates) has eaten almost their whole property.
Are we really going to have 4 more years of people finding recordings of every speech JC has made on the Middle East and pointing out that the content, as well as the panel and the audience is anti-Semitic? Surely even Labour cannot go on like this. It's embarrassing.
There are diminishing returns on unearthing the old fool's judosceptical ramblings. Nobody is surprised anymore and very few give a fuck about it.
I think we passed that point a little while ago to be honest. Anyone who has not recognised anti-Semitism by now is never going to.
Agreed. The costs to Labour are (1) opportunity cost and morale; and (2) if something is found, more recently, which links Corbyn to some outrage now which goes beyond what we already know. Unlikely. But who can say.
A good, and reported, Conference for the LD’s could upset the applecart.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
Under Boris they would present themselves as Trumpite anarcho-revolutionaries - smash apart the old order and see what, if anything, emerges from the rubble. You can see the appeal to the kind of testosterone-fuelled Brexit-supporting rich kids whom Boris represents. They can both enjoy the chaos and remain shielded from its effects by their wealth and elite status.
If May gets a Deal with the EU based on Chequers Deal terms it is possible she could lead the Tories through to the general election given Boris is the likely alternative.
However if we end up with No Deal Brexit or in effect a permanent transition period it is difficult to see how Boris can be stopped becoming Tory leader and PM before the next general election
Which is, in itself, May's big negotiating weapon to use against Brussels. Do you want to deal with Boris - or with me?
Boris is playing a role in the final Brexit outcome - whether wittingly or not.
Yes, Boris is now the likely alternative to May and May can say to Brussels if they will not compromise with her they really will get No Deal Brexit with Boris
And if Brexit is a disaster, or even moderately painful, Boris will get blamed.
His most recent article was interesting in that it criticised the EU and the Chequers deal, but didn't say anything in support of Brexit per se.
“That may be your GDP. It’s not my GDP” comment from the referendum is probably what needs to be burnt on every Tory MP’s forehead. In fact, every MP’s head.
It’s no use quoting a load of statistics at people if it does not bear any or much relationship with their experience. Assuming that some sort of Brexit deal is cobbled together, then everything thereafter needs to be focused on trying to make things better for those at the bottom and middle in ways that are real for them and doing so fairly.
It is no use saying that Corbynomics will destroy the country if Brexit is doing that. And even if it isn’t the country will have to work very hard post-Brexit to earn its living and will need to share the results of its work more fairly than before. So that needs to be the focus.
Only that will help challenge the Corbyn narrative not claims about the 1970’s or Venezuela or Communism.
To give May her due, I think she actually understands this.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
If the Conservatives have 'completely trashed their credibility on the altar of Brexit' why are they still polling higher than they got at any general election from 1997 to 2010?
Jeremy Corbyn
Labour's problem is that if they change leader to someone more voter friendly, Chukka for example, the Momentum crowd will revolt, splitting the party.
There is zero evidence that Chukka is more voter-friendly than Corbyn.
The Meeksian constituency that Chukka appeals to is very, very tiny.
Flawed though Corbyn may be, he is not as flawed as Owen Smith or Liz Kendall or Andy Burnham or Yvette Corbyn, all of whom he easily beat in leadership elections because they failed to articulate any credible vision for the Labour Party.
Not really. The spread of Twitter has allowed any number of people to rant who in the past just shouted at the TV, giving the impression that everyone is ranting. But actually they're not, and although Cyclefree tells us not to attach such weight to politeness, I really value the fact that neither May nor Corbyn abuse anyone and are perfectly capable of talking to people who they share zero values with. I've seen them both talking amicably to people far on the other side.
In Broxtowe, one of the longest cross-party friendships was between one of Dennis Skinner's brothers, Gordon, a man who made Dennis look right-wing, and a senior Tory councillor. They went on walking holidays together, and when Gordon died, the councillor came to his funeral and sat beside me: we sang The Red Flag in his honour. When I mildly teased him about it he said fiercely that of course he was glad to sing it for Gordon. I would have liked to go to the councillor's funeral (which was some years later, when I was abroad) and sing Land of Hope and Glory to return the favour.
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
Brexit will cut across all of those "offers". It's hard for those promoting disruption, trade barriers, ideology over economics to present themselves as safe pairs of hands on the economy. Secondly,the tax take will be reduced as companies offshore and fewer economic migrants come in, so less money to spend and difficult choices on how to cut and not boost welfare. Thirdly dealing with the with the disintegration that is the consequence of Brexit will be all consuming. It won't be consolidation.
Are we really going to have 4 more years of people finding recordings of every speech JC has made on the Middle East and pointing out that the content, as well as the panel and the audience is anti-Semitic? Surely even Labour cannot go on like this. It's embarrassing.
There are diminishing returns on unearthing the old fool's judosceptical ramblings. Nobody is surprised anymore and very few give a fuck about it.
I think we passed that point a little while ago to be honest. Anyone who has not recognised anti-Semitism by now is never going to.
Agreed. The costs to Labour are (1) opportunity cost and morale; and (2) if something is found, more recently, which links Corbyn to some outrage now which goes beyond what we already know. Unlikely. But who can say.
A good, and reported, Conference for the LD’s could upset the applecart.
There are certainly centre-left voters to court, that hear of Corbyn's close attachment to anti-semites - and throw up a little bit of sick in their mouth. They might hate Tories - but anti-semites at the heart of Government? Nope.
Trouble is, LibDems have no policies and no presence in politics in 2018. They need some tub-thumpers.
Help2Buy is the economics of the madhouse – a demand-side measure when the problem is with the (lack of) supply. It was never destined to end well.
I think economics 101 explains that if you improve demand then the supply will increase, subject to absolute shortages. At the time it was introduced there was a real shortage of mortgages which meant that the supply of buyers was artificially low. At the moment private construction is doing well so it has worked to some extent. Whether it has a long term future is another matter.
The supply of buyers could have been fixed by the government doing something about the ludicrous mortgage affordability rules which has condemned an entire Millennial generation to spend more on rent than Generation X are paying on their mortgages. Help2Buy is, was and will forever be an unmitigated disaster, pushing up the price of naff new-build mouseholes while my generation pays less for Edwardian homes.
The ludicrous mortgage affordability rules were put in place in part to stop the disasters of 2008. If you loosen them you risk repeating previous property boom and bust (and bank boom and bust) mistakes. The rules may well need looking at again but they weren’t put in place to screw over the young but to bring some sanity to our housing market and to curb the tendency of banks to invest in housing rather than, say, more productive areas of the economy.
Something definitely needs doing about the rental sector.
That is a stunning statistic. Would some of that be just to save money on fuel etc?
No, they are just very large, very complex vessels that are subject to a lot modification for new sensors, weapons, etc. Even vessels that are nominally of the same class end up being quite different so every single engineering effort means starting from scratch with limited reuse of drawings, etc. This is already the case for QE and PoW. QE is going into a 2 year refit to bring her up to the PoW "standard" by which time the PoW will have mutated into something else.
Are we really going to have 4 more years of people finding recordings of every speech JC has made on the Middle East and pointing out that the content, as well as the panel and the audience is anti-Semitic? Surely even Labour cannot go on like this. It's embarrassing.
There are diminishing returns on unearthing the old fool's judosceptical ramblings. Nobody is surprised anymore and very few give a fuck about it.
I think we passed that point a little while ago to be honest. Anyone who has not recognised anti-Semitism by now is never going to.
Agreed. The costs to Labour are (1) opportunity cost and morale; and (2) if something is found, more recently, which links Corbyn to some outrage now which goes beyond what we already know. Unlikely. But who can say.
A good, and reported, Conference for the LD’s could upset the applecart.
LDs (like any other proposed ‘centrist’ party) need to decide primarily what they are *for*, why we should positively vote for them rather than another party. We know they’re against Brexit, but that will be a minority persuit come the next election.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
If the Conservatives have 'completely trashed their credibility on the altar of Brexit' why are they still polling higher than they got at any general election from 1997 to 2010?
Jeremy Corbyn
Labour's problem is that if they change leader to someone more voter friendly, Chukka for example, the Momentum crowd will revolt, splitting the party.
There is zero evidence that Chukka is more voter-friendly than Corbyn.
The Meeksian constituency that Chukka appeals to is very, very tiny.
Flawed though Corbyn may be, he is not as flawed as Owen Smith or Liz Kendall or Andy Burnham or Yvette Corbyn, all of whom he easily beat in leadership elections because they failed to articulate any credible vision for the Labour Party.
It doesn’t include Meeks.
Labour’s next leader needs to be able to articulate the social aspects of the moral crusade without Jeremy Corbyn’s foreign policy baggage. Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner would be good choices.
Still a long way to go for self driving cars. Wake me up when they’ll collect me from the pub and take me home to the wife.
As usual with high technology, 90% of the way there takes 10% of the total effort. 90% of the effort still needs to be put in to solve the numerous edge cases of the final 10%.
In the 1960s police on the beat had to phone in regularly from the police box on their beat.
Over Christmas we had an on duty policeman celebrating at our house. We had to half carry him to the police box in the next road so he could phone in to report.
Not really. The spread of Twitter has allowed any number of people to rant who in the past just shouted at the TV, giving the impression that everyone is ranting. But actually they're not, and although Cyclefree tells us not to attach such weight to politeness, I really value the fact that neither May nor Corbyn abuse anyone and are perfectly capable of talking to people who they share zero values with. I've seen them both talking amicably to people far on the other side.
In Broxtowe, one of the longest cross-party friendships was between one of Dennis Skinner's brothers, Gordon, a man who made Dennis look right-wing, and a senior Tory councillor. They went on walking holidays together, and when Gordon died, the councillor came to his funeral and sat beside me: we sang the Red Flag in his honour. When I mildly teased him about it he said fiercely that of course he was glad to sing it for Gordon. I would have liked to go to the councillor's funeral (which was some years later, when I was abroad) and sing Land of Hope and Glory to return the favour.
Hello? I value politeness a lot. I just think you also need to listen to what people say not just how they say it. JRM, for instance, gets far too much attention because he is so exquisitely courtly and polite. Still makes what he says mostly nonsense.
The Hunt Siddiq exchange this morning raised my opinion of them both.
Help2Buy is the economics of the madhouse – a demand-side measure when the problem is with the (lack of) supply. It was never destined to end well.
I think economics 101 explains that if you improve demand then the supply will increase, subject to absolute shortages. At the time it was introduced there was a real shortage of mortgages which meant that the supply of buyers was artificially low. At the moment private construction is doing well so it has worked to some extent. Whether it has a long term future is another matter.
The supply of buyers could have been fixed by the government doing something about the ludicrous mortgage affordability rules which has condemned an entire Millennial generation to spend more on rent than Generation X are paying on their mortgages. Help2Buy is, was and will forever be an unmitigated disaster, pushing up the price of naff new-build mouseholes while my generation pays less for Edwardian homes.
The ludicrous mortgage affordability rules were put in place in part to stop the disasters of 2008. If you loosen them you risk repeating previous property boom and bust (and bank boom and bust) mistakes. The rules may well need looking at again but they weren’t put in place to screw over the young but to bring some sanity to our housing market and to curb the tendency of banks to invest in housing rather than, say, more productive areas of the economy.
Something definitely needs doing about the rental sector.
Even on current rules being a private landlord is no fun, particularly when you have (as I do) a problematic tenant.
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
Brexit will cut across all of those "offers". It's hard for those promoting disruption, trade barriers, ideology over economics to present themselves as safe pairs of hands on the economy. Secondly,the tax take will be reduced as companies offshore and fewer economic migrants come in, so less money to spend and difficult choices on how to cut and not boost welfare. Thirdly dealing with the with the disintegration that is the consequence of Brexit will be all consuming. It won't be consolidation.
We shall see. I think you are exaggerating any Brexit effects by at least an order of magnitude.
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
Brexit will cut across all of those "offers". It's hard for those promoting disruption, trade barriers, ideology over economics to present themselves as safe pairs of hands on the economy. Secondly,the tax take will be reduced as companies offshore and fewer economic migrants come in, so less money to spend and difficult choices on how to cut and not boost welfare. Thirdly dealing with the with the disintegration that is the consequence of Brexit will be all consuming. It won't be consolidation.
We shall see. I think you are exaggerating any Brexit effects by at least an order of magnitude.
They’ve got into the mental state where they actually believe the scare mongering. It’s not that it couldn’t go as wrong as suggested, but it would need incredible mendacious behaviour on both sides to happen.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
If the Conservatives have 'completely trashed their credibility on the altar of Brexit' why are they still polling higher than they got at any general election from 1997 to 2010?
Corbyn.
Without Corbyn Labour may be polling lower as he united the left behind Labour in the same way Brexit (at least pre Chequers) united the right behind the Tories
Are we really going to have 4 more years of people finding recordings of every speech JC has made on the Middle East and pointing out that the content, as well as the panel and the audience is anti-Semitic? Surely even Labour cannot go on like this. It's embarrassing.
There are diminishing returns on unearthing the old fool's judosceptical ramblings. Nobody is surprised anymore and very few give a fuck about it.
I think we passed that point a little while ago to be honest. Anyone who has not recognised anti-Semitism by now is never going to.
Agreed. The costs to Labour are (1) opportunity cost and morale; and (2) if something is found, more recently, which links Corbyn to some outrage now which goes beyond what we already know. Unlikely. But who can say.
A good, and reported, Conference for the LD’s could upset the applecart.
LDs (like any other proposed ‘centrist’ party) need to decide primarily what they are *for*, why we should positively vote for them rather than another party. We know they’re against Brexit, but that will be a minority persuit come the next election.
Not really. The spread of Twitter has allowed any number of people to rant who in the past just shouted at the TV, giving the impression that everyone is ranting. But actually they're not, and although Cyclefree tells us not to attach such weight to politeness, I really value the fact that neither May nor Corbyn abuse anyone and are perfectly capable of talking to people who they share zero values with. I've seen them both talking amicably to people far on the other side.
In Broxtowe, one of the longest cross-party friendships was between one of Dennis Skinner's brothers, Gordon, a man who made Dennis look right-wing, and a senior Tory councillor. They went on walking holidays together, and when Gordon died, the councillor came to his funeral and sat beside me: we sang The Red Flag in his honour. When I mildly teased him about it he said fiercely that of course he was glad to sing it for Gordon. I would have liked to go to the councillor's funeral (which was some years later, when I was abroad) and sing Land of Hope and Glory to return the favour.
At local politics level there can be more friendship across parties than within the same party.
We have had considerable antagonism between the District Council leader and the County Council leader, both in the same party.
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
Brexit will cut across all of those "offers". It's hard for those promoting disruption, trade barriers, ideology over economics to present themselves as safe pairs of hands on the economy. Secondly,the tax take will be reduced as companies offshore and fewer economic migrants come in, so less money to spend and difficult choices on how to cut and not boost welfare. Thirdly dealing with the with the disintegration that is the consequence of Brexit will be all consuming. It won't be consolidation.
We shall see. I think you are exaggerating any Brexit effects by at least an order of magnitude.
If you're looking at the time frame up to the next election, there's a fairly binary choice between political humiliation and economic damage.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
If the Conservatives have 'completely trashed their credibility on the altar of Brexit' why are they still polling higher than they got at any general election from 1997 to 2010?
Jeremy Corbyn
Labour's problem is that if they change leader to someone more voter friendly, Chukka for example, the Momentum crowd will revolt, splitting the party.
There is zero evidence that Chukka is more voter-friendly than Corbyn.
The Meeksian constituency that Chukka appeals to is very, very tiny.
Flawed though Corbyn may be, he is not as flawed as Owen Smith or Liz Kendall or Andy Burnham or Yvette Corbyn, all of whom he easily beat in leadership elections because they failed to articulate any credible vision for the Labour Party.
It doesn’t include Meeks.
Labour’s next leader needs to be able to articulate the social aspects of the moral crusade without Jeremy Corbyn’s foreign policy baggage. Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner would be good choices.
Or Stella Creasey. She was quite good last night on Newsnight.
PS It’s Corbyn’s “baggage” about British citizens that bothers me.
Even on current rules being a private landlord is no fun, particularly when you have (as I do) a problematic tenant.
Property companies seem to be far better placed.
Yup, rental management seems like something that would be better done by maybe half-a-dozen ferociously-competing property rental companies. Firstly they'd pool the risk instead of having a bunch of individuals who do fine for years then suddenly get screwed by bad tenants, and secondly they'd have an incentive to do a good job to preserve their reputations, especially when the tenant moved out, at which point individual landlords have basically no incentive to be nice to them.
My view is that May genuinely doesn’t want to go in 2019.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
I don’t think she’s that stupid. She is self-aware enough to know that for good or ill (ill, actually) her legacy is Brexit.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
If the Conservatives have 'completely trashed their credibility on the altar of Brexit' why are they still polling higher than they got at any general election from 1997 to 2010?
Jeremy Corbyn
Labour's problem is that if they change leader to someone more voter friendly, Chukka for example, the Momentum crowd will revolt, splitting the party.
There is zero evidence that Chukka is more voter-friendly than Corbyn.
The Meeksian constituency that Chukka appeals to is very, very tiny.
Flawed though Corbyn may be, he is not as flawed as Owen Smith or Liz Kendall or Andy Burnham or Yvette Corbyn, all of whom he easily beat in leadership elections because they failed to articulate any credible vision for the Labour Party.
It doesn’t include Meeks.
Labour’s next leader needs to be able to articulate the social aspects of the moral crusade without Jeremy Corbyn’s foreign policy baggage. Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner would be good choices.
Leading Epping Council would be an overpromotion for Lisa Nandy and Angela Rayner, let alone leading the country
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As @DavidL points out, I get no sense that the government has a long term economic plan, or indeed, a long term anything. May is very like Brown in that much of what she does seems to be tactical and reactive.
*in the Internet age this is about four years.
So I log on and read PB ...
May is uninspiring, dismal, and boring, but few people find her frightening, whereas that is not true of Corbyn.
I thought Tory MPs were supposed to be self-serving?
It’s no use quoting a load of statistics at people if it does not bear any or much relationship with their experience. Assuming that some sort of Brexit deal is cobbled together, then everything thereafter needs to be focused on trying to make things better for those at the bottom and middle in ways that are real for them and doing so fairly.
It is no use saying that Corbynomics will destroy the country if Brexit is doing that. And even if it isn’t the country will have to work very hard post-Brexit to earn its living and will need to share the results of its work more fairly than before. So that needs to be the focus.
Only that will help challenge the Corbyn narrative not claims about the 1970’s or Venezuela or Communism.
There is also the question of whether the Corbynites would vote for Labour under such a leader. They could well go Green or Lib Dem.
(I realise you didn't actually say the leader would be a centrist offering a second referendum)
There will always be rich people in the world. There is no shame making things that they want to buy, especially if it creates employment and wealth in poorer parts of the country. What’s your alternative for these people?
"The most important thing is that I believe in me".
How times have changed
The work, by celebrated painter David Griffiths, had a price tag at £25,000....
Artist Paul Selley’s study of Jacob Rees-Mogg went for £450.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/7121186/no-bids-portrait-nigel-farage/
Worth every penny!
Price stability for 5-10 years would be a good thing.
http://aviationweek.com/defense/f-35c-conducts-first-ever-operational-test-sea.
Do people seriously think complex kit like aircraft carriers are fully operational from day 1?
https://twitter.com/_IanMoss/status/1034546675690467330
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6107805/Are-developers-inflating-prices-homes-sold-Help-Buy.html
This lack of economy of scale really hurts them in the product life cycle. They are still using the Ricardo built Nissan derived engine they started with in the MP4. Mercedes would be a good fit.
Also, all of the cars raced in Indy and IndyLights have Dallara chassis made in Italy. NASCAR chassis are made in Good Old Uncle US of Stateside.
The Police Stations , that are required for members of the public , are for legal requirements .Such as Custody , Sex Offender Registration etc.
When I first started people had to report non urgent crimes, such as theft of a bike in person.
Police Officers , hated working the front office .As there was always a long queue.With never ending recording of driving documents.
Help2Buy is the economics of the madhouse – a demand-side measure when the problem is with the (lack of) supply. It was never destined to end well.
People don't realise what harbour queens carriers are. The last but one Ark Royal (R09) spent 18 of her 29 year life in refit.
However if we end up with No Deal Brexit or in effect a permanent transition period it is difficult to see how Boris can be stopped becoming Tory leader and PM before the next general election
She'll go on and on.
Boris is playing a role in the final Brexit outcome - whether wittingly or not.
The PO on duty told him, in a somewhat tired and mildly sarcastic fashion, that normal practice was to drive so that you could stop if the venhicle in front did, and asked him if he wanted to pursue his complaint.
Exit, muttering!
2) Others support them out of antipathy to Jeremy Corbyn.
When Brexit is seen as over, group one will want new reasons to stay on board. The Conservatives offer none at present and Brexit deprives them of the means of credibly offering the traditional ones. They are also incredibly vulnerable if the Labour leader changes.
The supply of buyers could have been fixed by the government doing something about the ludicrous mortgage affordability rules which has condemned an entire Millennial generation to spend more on rent than Generation X are paying on their mortgages. Help2Buy is, was and will forever be an unmitigated disaster, pushing up the price of naff new-build mouseholes while my generation pays less for Edwardian homes.
That Ricardo engine is now good for 800bhp in the limited Senna, and 720bhp in the ‘regular’ production 720S, which by all standards is a big step up from the older models and beats anything else in its class down the strip and round the track. Going down the Mercedes route (like Aston and others) wouldn’t give them enough of a differentiator.
Yes, I’d forgotten that IndyCar were now all Dallaras, they used to be Lolas and Reynards. I always found it ironic that the Septics couldn’t make themselves an open wheeled car and looked to Europe for them.
I’d expect UKIP to spike regardless but GE2022 would focus minds in the marginals if Corbyn is still leader.
If she gets it badly wrong she’ll be down to 270 seats and out of office.
https://siliconangle.com/2018/08/28/report-waymo-self-driving-cars-problems-turning-around-corners/
The Meeksian constituency that Chukka appeals to is very, very tiny.
Flawed though Corbyn may be, he is not as flawed as Owen Smith or Liz Kendall or Andy Burnham or Yvette Corbyn, all of whom he easily beat in leadership elections because they failed to articulate any credible vision for the Labour Party.
In Broxtowe, one of the longest cross-party friendships was between one of Dennis Skinner's brothers, Gordon, a man who made Dennis look right-wing, and a senior Tory councillor. They went on walking holidays together, and when Gordon died, the councillor came to his funeral and sat beside me: we sang The Red Flag in his honour. When I mildly teased him about it he said fiercely that of course he was glad to sing it for Gordon. I would have liked to go to the councillor's funeral (which was some years later, when I was abroad) and sing Land of Hope and Glory to return the favour.
Trouble is, LibDems have no policies and no presence in politics in 2018. They need some tub-thumpers.
Something definitely needs doing about the rental sector.
Labour’s next leader needs to be able to articulate the social aspects of the moral crusade without Jeremy Corbyn’s foreign policy baggage. Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner would be good choices.
As usual with high technology, 90% of the way there takes 10% of the total effort. 90% of the effort still needs to be put in to solve the numerous edge cases of the final 10%.
Over Christmas we had an on duty policeman celebrating at our house. We had to half carry him to the police box in the next road so he could phone in to report.
The Hunt Siddiq exchange this morning raised my opinion of them both.
Property companies seem to be far better placed.
Where’s the ghost of Charles Kennedy?
We have had considerable antagonism between the District Council leader and the County Council leader, both in the same party.
PS It’s Corbyn’s “baggage” about British citizens that bothers me.