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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2019 now rated as a 44% chance as the year that TMay ceases to be PM
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Okay - I'll talk to myself. The circumstances of May's survival will influence her departure. As long as she isn't palpably a liability for the Conservatives and as long as no one else is clearly a greater asset why remove her?
If the events of 29/3/19 do turn out to lead into an awkward period for the country, I'm sure that will be reflected in her ratings to some extent but she is so strongly helped by the presence of Corbyn who polarises opinion so much he bolsters her (and she indirectly supports him).
Indeed, one could almost argue May and Corbyn enjoy a symbiotic relationship (no giggling in the cheap seats).
If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls
- Take one Conservative party
- Extract the ERG and discard
They just aren't prepared to take that risk.
She's working her notice.
Sifo - Socalists widen lead over SD by 1.2 pp to 7.7 points
Inizio - SD close gap by 0.5 pp to 5.3 points
SD out from 2.2 to 2.4 on the markets (I think 3 is fair value)
Or if in Bangkok, "Baht at?" means "My good man, where is the nearest Bureau de Change?"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7041808/corbyn-ally-mps-kicked-out-labour/
Second, for many in Labour, the consequence of the 1981 schism was a decade and a half of damaging Conservative Government. It's no surprise many on the Right talk up the possibility of schism because it's so electorally attractive for the Conservatives.
38-38-10 produces a hung Parliament and makes a non-Conservative Government possible.
38-28-20 produces a landslide for the Conservatives.
As HYUFD has often stated, Corbyn's success in coalescing the anti-Conservative vote to Labour in 2017 meant May's increased vote share of 42% didn't achieve the outcome similar vote shares did for Thatcher and Major.
The result of that could be very interesting for everyone concerned
After all Macron and En Marche won in France in part as the Front National overtook Les Republicains on the right, at least at the presidential election, while squeezing the Socialists vote hard and also beating Melenchon's Party
Cable is a goner anyway, maybe as early as next week
Lots of other arguments in and around it but I don't think that is a good argument against a 2nd referendum.
Cable says he wants to lead the LDs through until the end of 2019 then stand down, we will see
What kind of damage could and would it do to the Conservatives?
Alastair is a very interesting poster and it is a shame he has this obssession that turns so many off
If the Tories were seen to have betrayed the Brexit vote completely a Canada 1993 result would be the nightmare with the Tories suffering the fate of the Progressive Conservatives then and losing power and getting overtaken by a populist party of the Right
That was the plan but many in the Party want a contest not a coronation and there's growing support for Layla Moran to stand against Jo for the leadership and I think that would be a very good thing.
The Party urgently needs to find a post-Brexit direction and that can include campaigning to re-join the EU but needs to cover the gamut of other issues.
Vince will use the Party Conference to, I suspect, initiate the process of choosing a new leader which at the moment is more about this absurd idea of extending the franchise to non-members who would become "registered supporters" in order to get a vote.
At least Labour got £3 out of each entryist Conservative.
Macron is personally invested in the European dream, and therefore has the most incentive to push back as far as he can, as long as he can, even if a deal is struck in the end. In other words, the "no deal" and "deal" variants of the Macron game plan look similar.
Plus Macron also needs to work on his own approval rating at the same time
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1034137839745814528?s=20
See here:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/labour-2016-voting-data/
It’s about pushing the Govt as far away from harmonisation as is physically possible.
Those who discuss the problems of Labour and antisemitism rarely if ever make it a point to repeatedly attack other contributors with name-calling and other abuse.
That is not what happens with regards to the regular forum contributor under discussion here.
I really do wish there was an ignore function within the Vanilla software - so that we could all make choices as to who to read on here. It would make it possible to just avoid those who might trigger us into intemperate behaviour.
Political debates should be robust and challenging. But name-calling and abuse from any side is unacceptable.
My dad used to always say that the Edinburgh Tattoo was the first sign of autumn.
The Edinburgh military Tattoo is one of the more memorable places I gave myself an electric shock. twice.
Cult is a constant in reference to Labour supporters or sometimes more particularly Corbyn supporters, with accusations that anti semitism is used to impress these people, the left or sometimes Muslims, because obviously these groups love anti semitism. There may not be an individual who does it as consistently as Alastair but there is only one of him and the criticism mainly goes to Alastair, I suspect because there are far more Brexit supporters than Corbyn supporters here.
The cult thing itself is very low level and I don't expect this to be a Labour friendly place so I don't hugely mind but Alastair is right when he talks about hypocrisy. He does also criticise Corbyn/Labour, I think he is similarly OTT in that regard as he is with Brexit, I do take his posts on it more seriously though because he is at least consistent in that regard.
Edit: Slow typing and thinking rather than idea stealing!
Or Stereo is just quicker than me...
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/chemnitz-mehr-als-tausend-demonstrieren-gegen-rechte-gewalt-15758786.html
If something looks like a cult, sounds like a cult and acts like a cult, it is reasonable to describe it as a cult.
That is not abusive.