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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188

    HYUFD said:

    The political parties can't ignore the wishes of their members and do what their MPs want as an alternative - the MPs won't be MPs for long if that keeps up.

    As for Chequers is or isn't BINO who cares? Chequers is dead. Skewered by ERG amendments and rejected by Barnier. Here and now our choices are rescind A50, leave to EEA/CU either immediately or at the end of a lengthy transition, or crash out wi' nowt.

    Chequers is not dead but will be the likely basis of the Deal next year

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6042765/amp/EU-offer-UK-stay-single-market-goods-without-free-movement.html
    I still don't see how the Irish position gets resolved. The UK cannot agree to the EU backstop position. It is just leaving a buffet of shit sandwiches for her successor. The whole "settlement" would unravel a few years down the road. And with it, Brexit Redux comes to the fore.

    Some months back, I honestly thought it impossible that anybody would want to try and re-open the final Brexit settlement. There would be no political mileage in it, I assumed. Who is going to want to go through all this again? Can't happen.

    But such is Theresa May's political brilliance.

    It is one reason why I can see No Deal Brexit has its attraction. It will be final. No dog returning to its vomit there....
    No Deal absolutely won't be final. The EU will be pushing for the Withdrawal Agreement all the time as it discusses anything going forward. By definition No Deal is no agreement.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    FF43 said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.

    We're seeing the failure of liberalism. It gets blamed for the fact that not everyone benefits from globalisation, that there is apparently free migration, that people don't feel in control of their lives or at home in their communities, that banker type spivs make fortunes of the backs of ordinary people.

    Liberalism was the big loser in the 1930s faced with the rise of fascism, communism and militarism. It was ascendant post war as the disaster of the alternatives was undeniable. Now we are turning full circle with Brexit, Trump, the rise of xenophobic parties in Europe.
    A genuine liberalism would ensure that globalisation does benefit the majority and would realise that changing societies quickly and drastically through uncontrolled migration is not a good idea and likely to lead to illiberalism and would not prioritise the needs of banks over the needs of ordinary voters.

    Liberalism’s failure has not just been to allow these things to happen but to make it seem as if they are intrinsic to liberalism. They are not. If liberalism is to fight back and win against the extreme, it needs to start making the case for a real liberalism which understands the need to share the fruits of growth fairly, the importance of having settled communities with shared values and gradual change which is consented to and can be absorbed without harm and rupture and the necessity not to allow unchallangeable corporations to get too big for their boots.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    David Cameron pays tribute to John McCain who addressed the Tory conference a decade ago

    https://mobile.twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/1033614010611052544

    I guess another funeral where Melania will represent the President.
    McCain made clear he did not want POTUS there, FLOTUS maybe OK
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    surby said:

    DavidL said:

    From The Sunday Times.

    A Better Brexit group of 40 Tory MPs close to Michael Gove plan to threaten to oppose a no-deal departure.

    Given that Gove regrets the way Vote Leave campaigned and that he ended up ending Dave's Premiership I suspect it won't be long before Gove will be publicly supporting BINO.

    The Chequers Deal is not BINO.

    As Sky's Economics Editor has pointed out, the Chequers deal is closer to a hard/no deal Brexit than to a soft Brexit.

    It's just that May is so piss-poor at politics, both sides are rinsing it now.
    That is a very good point. Once again, as at every stage of May's premiership, there is no leadership, no vision, no attempt to persuade. Why has she not been out there batting for her Chequers deal at every opportunity, explaining why in her view it is a good compromise for the country and in our interests?

    Her idea of leadership is to make a one off speech and refer back to it from time to time as if we all walked about with a copy of it in our back pockets for reference. She has absolutely no idea how to do politics. Having explained how I think the Tory rules are supposed to operate how the hell did the party end up with a choice between her and Leadsom? Is it a nanny fixation?
    You say May is not a politician. But she managed to go to the top of the greasy pole!

    She does not have a personal supporters club. Maybe that's why she became PM. And stays there as other groups cancel each other out.
    In many ways she is the lowest common denominator. But we should be able to do better than that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    FF43 said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.

    We're seeing the failure of liberalism. It gets blamed for the fact that not everyone benefits from globalisation, that there is apparently free migration, that people don't feel in control of their lives or at home in their communities, that banker type spivs make fortunes of the backs of ordinary people.

    Liberalism was the big loser in the 1930s faced with the rise of fascism, communism and militarism. It was ascendant post war as the disaster of the alternatives was undeniable. Now we are turning full circle with Brexit, Trump, the rise of xenophobic parties in Europe.
    I think with Brexit what you are seeing is just the failure of an attempt to rope the UK into a super-state by stealth. It got caught, very late on - and the surgery is more drastic as a result.

    But the patient will make a full recovery.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974

    HYUFD said:

    Ben on the existing rules it is highly unlikely we will have two former Remainers in the final two.

    After all in the last 3 contested Tory leadership elections Leadsom, David Davis and IDS all managed to get to the final two as hard line Eurosceptics as that wing of the party will ensure it gets a candidate sent to the membership.

    Though as no alternative leader polls much better than May v Corbyn Labour and most poll worse if May does get a Deal next year it is not impossible she could still lead the Tories at the next general election anyway

    It might be significant that IDS suggested Hammond should be replaced as Chancellor not by Boris, Gove or Jacob Rees-Mogg but by Sajid Javid. If the Home Secretary has become the thinking Leavers' leader of choice, then we are back to Hunt and Javid pipping Hammond for a place on the final two.
    Oh God. You think Hammond is going to get 'pipped' to a place on the final two? He will be lucky to get 20 votes if he stands.

    If Boris really can't get enough votes to get on the final two ballot, the Leavers will coalesce around whichever Leaver looks most credible. This will not under any circumstances be Gove, as he is (quite correctly) considered to have sold out Leave. JRM would have a chance if Boris does not stand. Alternatively, start looking at the list of all the Leavers who have kept their principles relatively intact. If Raab ends up resigning before the contest he might have a shot. Otherwise check the other Leave cabinet ministers, excluding Leadsom and Grayling of course. Even Steve Baker might make a run if Boris does realise he can't win. But there is no way in the World that Leave MPs (of which there are of course well over 100) will not put a Leaver in the final two and whoever that is will win the membership vote.

    Sorry, Javid has blown it. He will be a good deputy to a true Leaver, but he will never be able to get over his tragic mistake in backing Remain.
    Javid would trounce Hunt according to the last Yougov and ConHome Tory membership polls but otherwise he would find it difficult against Boris or Mogg post Chequers Deal.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The last thing this country needs is 2 completely dysfunctional parties at the same time.

    Too late! We already have them
    True, but Vince won't hang on much longer.
    Make that three dysfunctional parties :)
    Whta would be the result, publicity-wise, of making the part-Palestinian Layla Moran LD Leader? Apaert from making the LD’s much more photogenic?
    Depends on if she has any form of ability, nothing to do with her heritage.
    A bright lady, apparently. Thoughtful. And determined....... well she wouldn’t be in politics if she wasn’t, would she!
    I would favour Lamb, but would want to see a contest and to see the candidates on the hustings.

    From what I see, coronations in any party don't work out well. There needs to be a threshing out of ideas.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The last thing this country needs is 2 completely dysfunctional parties at the same time.

    Too late! We already have them
    True, but Vince won't hang on much longer.
    Make that three dysfunctional parties :)
    Whta would be the result, publicity-wise, of making the part-Palestinian Layla Moran LD Leader? Apaert from making the LD’s much more photogenic?
    Depends on if she has any form of ability, nothing to do with her heritage.
    A bright lady, apparently. Thoughtful. And determined....... well she wouldn’t be in politics if she wasn’t, would she!
    Doesn't she have a margin seat
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284

    @another_richard as I have disabled parents I do know a little bit about the relative impact upon disabled people of the various governments over time. There is a world of difference between tightening up to prevent abuse - Blair - and driving disabled people to commit suicide after "curing" them - Cameron/May.

    if your only response to the disgusting abuse of the most vulnerable by this government is whataboutery then thats pretty sad.

    The way the disabled and those confused and desparate as a result of legal problems were treated by first the Coalition and secondly by the Conservatives was dreadful. And callous.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    David Cameron pays tribute to John McCain who addressed the Tory conference a decade ago

    https://mobile.twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/1033614010611052544

    I guess another funeral where Melania will represent the President.
    McCain made clear he did not want POTUS there, FLOTUS maybe OK
    So FLOTUS not FLATUS.....
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    daodao said:

    Mr. Meeks, in your view how should someone who believed it was definitely in the UK's interest to leave the EU and who absolutely opposed (and opposes) racism have voted in the referendum?

    Mr. Doethur, do you prefer to be known as Dr. Doethur?

    I expect them to have weighed very carefully the implications of Leaving through a campaign won by xenophobic lies and to have taken every opportunity to challenge those xenophobic lies during the campaign when it mattered. Sarah Wollaston changed her vote because of the conduct of the Leave campaign (naturally she is now a Leave hate figure). As far as I’m aware, otherwise, Leavers were in the most part hugely enthusiastic about the lies told and at best silent on the subject. None have yet begun to come to terms with how the campaign has trapped the country in dismal parameters.

    The contrast with Labour supporters wrestling with what they do in the face of anti-Semitism couldn’t be starker.
    That isn't true. For example, and as I believe I said so on here at the time, I wrote to the Leave campaign setting out both my ideas for and objections to what it was doing, and I refused to either order or deliver the Turkey leaflets. I instead confined myself to fighting with just the "five positive reasons" leaflet, a bit of doorknocking and public stalls, and making my own arguments via my blog too.

    What I wasn't prepared to do, is to publicly denounce the Leave campaign only a few weeks out from the biggest vote in my lifetime, when it was already subject to infighting between various factions, yet alone vote Remain as a consequence.

    I suspect that probably makes me as guilty-as-hell in your eyes, but I have no regrets about what I did: I sleep well at night, I can look myself in the mirror, and I'm fully comfortable I acted with integrity. At the end of the day, that's all that matters to me.
    You should have spoken out, just as Labour supporters now feel compelled to speak out. As you yourself said, voting Leave was more important to you than confronting xenophobia.
    People voted Leave because they didn't want to be ruled by foreigners - that is NOT the same as xenophobia. Please stop your bile-filled hateful rant, to quote the words of another PB poster. It is unproductive and undignified. Brexit will occur, even if it is only BINO.
    Many people voted for Brexit for honourable reasons but I really don't see how you can deny that elements of the Leave campaign deliberately made xenophobic appeals in order to win.
  • TSE is racist against blondes :)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    edited August 2018
    On topic, I do find the sense of entitlement of Boris and his supporters to be repellent. It reminds me of Gordon Brown who behaved as if he was entitled to inherit the Labour leadership without submitting himself to a proper election within the party. A similar sense of entitlement amongst the Coopers and Burnhams is in part why Corbyn won.

    Boris is not entitled to be in the last two. Nor should the rules be changed to accommodate him. If he cannot persuade MPs to back him, tough. We are a Parliamentary democracy and the leader of a political party should have the backing of a majority of his or her MPs.

    Just because Labour has gone down a different path is no reason for the Tories to copy them.
  • Cyclefree said:

    If the best you can do in your list of positives is celebrate that wages are rising 0.1% higher than inflation and the new normal anaemic growth, you’re struggling. The idea that this is all going to settle down when a deal that leaves Britain with the worst of all worlds is struck is fanciful. Britain is in long term decline because a group of reactionary nationalists decided that it was worth pandering to racism in order to indulge their hatred of the EU.

    Sorry.
    Britain is obviously a worse place than it was three years ago and is getting worse, more divided, more unhappy, more extreme politics, lower long term growth, more isolated. There is no light on the horizon and none can be expected for years. But there we are.
    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.
    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    edited August 2018

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The last thing this country needs is 2 completely dysfunctional parties at the same time.

    Too late! We already have them
    True, but Vince won't hang on much longer.
    Make that three dysfunctional parties :)
    What would be the result, publicity-wise, of making the part-Palestinian Layla Moran LD Leader? Apart from making the LD’s much more photogenic?
    The LDs as well as Labour would become the target of the Zionist lobby.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The last thing this country needs is 2 completely dysfunctional parties at the same time.

    Too late! We already have them
    True, but Vince won't hang on much longer.
    Make that three dysfunctional parties :)
    Whta would be the result, publicity-wise, of making the part-Palestinian Layla Moran LD Leader? Apaert from making the LD’s much more photogenic?
    Depends on if she has any form of ability, nothing to do with her heritage.
    A bright lady, apparently. Thoughtful. And determined....... well she wouldn’t be in politics if she wasn’t, would she!
    I would favour Lamb, but would want to see a contest and to see the candidates on the hustings.

    From what I see, coronations in any party don't work out well. There needs to be a threshing out of ideas.
    Agree. I believe that there are going to some significant speeches at conference next month.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    DavidL said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has been made the subject of an official complaint to the Labour party over his suggestion in 2013 that some British Zionists do not understand “English irony”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/26/jeremy-corbyn-official-antisemitism-complaint

    I think there will be a shortage of whitewash in B&Q in the coming weeks.

    The panel hearing the complaint, made up of Labour MPs Chuka Umunna, Luciana Berger and Dame Margaret Hodge, will have the power to suspend or even expel the Labour leader....

    That's English irony right there, Jeremy.
    That's a hanging jury if ever I saw one. Surely those who have already expressed such forthright views such as Hodge and Berger really ought to disbar themselves?
    Such a jury would never be empannelled!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188
    Cyclefree said:

    FF43 said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.

    We're seeing the failure of liberalism. It gets blamed for the fact that not everyone benefits from globalisation, that there is apparently free migration, that people don't feel in control of their lives or at home in their communities, that banker type spivs make fortunes of the backs of ordinary people.

    Liberalism was the big loser in the 1930s faced with the rise of fascism, communism and militarism. It was ascendant post war as the disaster of the alternatives was undeniable. Now we are turning full circle with Brexit, Trump, the rise of xenophobic parties in Europe.
    A genuine liberalism would ensure that globalisation does benefit the majority and would realise that changing societies quickly and drastically through uncontrolled migration is not a good idea and likely to lead to illiberalism and would not prioritise the needs of banks over the needs of ordinary voters.

    Liberalism’s failure has not just been to allow these things to happen but to make it seem as if they are intrinsic to liberalism. They are not. If liberalism is to fight back and win against the extreme, it needs to start making the case for a real liberalism which understands the need to share the fruits of growth fairly, the importance of having settled communities with shared values and gradual change which is consented to and can be absorbed without harm and rupture and the necessity not to allow unchallangeable corporations to get too big for their boots.
    I agree with that. The case for liberalism is badly needed, but you do need to make it. One of the sadnesses of Brexit is that those genuinely left behind voted Leave in frustration and will be left behind more than ever, when they needed help to deal with a more connected world.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The last thing this country needs is 2 completely dysfunctional parties at the same time.

    Too late! We already have them
    True, but Vince won't hang on much longer.
    Make that three dysfunctional parties :)
    Whta would be the result, publicity-wise, of making the part-Palestinian Layla Moran LD Leader? Apaert from making the LD’s much more photogenic?
    Depends on if she has any form of ability, nothing to do with her heritage.
    A bright lady, apparently. Thoughtful. And determined....... well she wouldn’t be in politics if she wasn’t, would she!
    All very interesting as backstory but what does she stand for? Where would she try and lead the LDs? What would they stand for under her? A watery socialism, quasi-Orange book or some mystical third way? A change of leader without a thought change is hardly a panacea? Does the membership want change?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    It is. But he needs to go further.

    The problems of abuse are so widespread that there now needs to be a clear publicly announced strategy of getting rid of all clerics who have either abused or turned a blind eye, no matter how senior, and the handover of all evidence to the criminal authorities so that prosecutions, where possible, can occur.

    It will be tough and painful and go against the grain. But only in this way can the Church start the very slow process of repentance and rebuilding itself morally and regaining trust.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Cyclefree said:

    If the best you of reactionary nationalists decided that it was worth pandering to racism in order to indulge their hatred of the EU.
    Not really. I'm contesting your assertion of shitshow and absolute decline, which is 'inevitable for generations'.

    It's pure hyberbole, and well you know it. The rest of your post just reads like a late night A C Grayling rant.

    Sorry.
    Britain is obviously a worse place than it was three years ago and is getting worse, more divided, more unhappy, more extreme politics, lower long term growth, more isolated. There is no light on the horizon and none can be expected for years. But there we are.
    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.
    The story of that middle aged woman is basically the premise in the excellent recent Dominic Cooper and Gamma Arthertob film 'The Escape'
  • @another_richard as I have disabled parents I do know a little bit about the relative impact upon disabled people of the various governments over time. There is a world of difference between tightening up to prevent abuse - Blair - and driving disabled people to commit suicide after "curing" them - Cameron/May.

    if your only response to the disgusting abuse of the most vulnerable by this government is whataboutery then thats pretty sad.

    Altogether now with the response from party loyalists throughout history:

    "Our disability cuts good, your disability cuts bad"

    "Our side good, your side bad"

    "Four legs good, two legs bad"
  • HYUFD said:

    Ben on the existing rules it is highly unlikely we will have two former Remainers in the final two.

    After all in the last 3 contested Tory leadership elections Leadsom, David Davis and IDS all managed to get to the final two as hard line Eurosceptics as that wing of the party will ensure it gets a candidate sent to the membership.

    Though as no alternative leader polls much better than May v Corbyn Labour and most poll worse if May does get a Deal next year it is not impossible she could still lead the Tories at the next general election anyway

    It might be significant that IDS suggested Hammond should be replaced as Chancellor not by Boris, Gove or Jacob Rees-Mogg but by Sajid Javid. If the Home Secretary has become the thinking Leavers' leader of choice, then we are back to Hunt and Javid pipping Hammond for a place on the final two.
    Oh God. You think Hammond is going to get 'pipped' to a place on the final two? He will be lucky to get 20 votes if he stands.

    If Boris really can't get enough votes to get on the final two ballot, the Leavers will coalesce around whichever Leaver looks most credible. This will not under any circumstances be Gove, as he is (quite correctly) considered to have sold out Leave. JRM would have a chance if Boris does not stand. Alternatively, start looking at the list of all the Leavers who have kept their principles relatively intact. If Raab ends up resigning before the contest he might have a shot. Otherwise check the other Leave cabinet ministers, excluding Leadsom and Grayling of course. Even Steve Baker might make a run if Boris does realise he can't win. But there is no way in the World that Leave MPs (of which there are of course well over 100) will not put a Leaver in the final two and whoever that is will win the membership vote.

    Sorry, Javid has blown it. He will be a good deputy to a true Leaver, but he will never be able to get over his tragic mistake in backing Remain.
    The conservative party will not elect a Brexiteer to succeed TM. Javid and Hunt are the two leading candidates.

    Your hard Brexit is over and with respect what has it to do with you in Australia, you will not suffer the disaster of a hard Brexit. And unless you are a party member you do not even get a vote

    TM will do a deal and the Country will move on.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyclefree said:



    Britain is obviously a worse place than it was three years ago and is getting worse, more divided, more unhappy, more extreme politics, lower long term growth, more isolated. There is no light on the horizon and none can be expected for years. But there we are.

    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.
    This is a good question that deserves a full answer. I will seek to address it when I get a bit of time. For now, it’s worth noting that if no one talks to the middle-aged woman about how plausible her imagined alternatives are, she may make poor choices. No one has been making the case for solid stability in Britain for many years.

    On your other question, no that’s not a correct statement of my position. Immigration is a subject where it’s easy to frighten people by working on their basest instincts rather than have a measured discussion and the Leave campaign consciously opted to frighten people.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The last thing this country needs is 2 completely dysfunctional parties at the same time.

    Too late! We already have them
    True, but Vince won't hang on much longer.
    Make that three dysfunctional parties :)
    Whta would be the result, publicity-wise, of making the part-Palestinian Layla Moran LD Leader? Apaert from making the LD’s much more photogenic?
    Depends on if she has any form of ability, nothing to do with her heritage.
    A bright lady, apparently. Thoughtful. And determined....... well she wouldn’t be in politics if she wasn’t, would she!
    Doesn't she have a margin seat
    There are very few Liberal Democrats that don't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    I think Pope Francis' apology yesterday has helped with turnout for his visit and hopefully will be followed with further action, there were sizeable crows in Dublin when the Pope mobile went through yesterday and do not forget bar Italy Ireland is the most devout Catholic country in Western Europe still even despite the scandals.

    As an Argentine and the first non European Pope for centuries he also brings a different perspective to the traditional Catholic hierarchy
  • Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I do find the sense of entitlement of Boris and his supporters to be repellent. It reminds me of Gordon Brown who behaved as if he was entitled to inherit the Labour leadership without submitting himself to a proper election within the party. A similar sense of entitlement amongst the Coopers and Burnhams is in part why Corbyn won.

    Boris is not entitled to be in the last two. Nor should the rules be changed to accommodate him. If he cannot persuade MPs to back him, tough. We are a Parliamentary democracy and the leader of a political party should have the backing of a majority of his or her MPs.

    Just because Labour has gone down a different path is no reason for the Tories to copy them.

    Well said
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    HYUFD said:

    Ben on the existing rules it is highly unlikely we will have two former Remainers in the final two.

    After all in the last 3 contested Tory leadership elections Leadsom, David Davis and IDS all managed to get to the final two as hard line Eurosceptics as that wing of the party will ensure it gets a candidate sent to the membership.

    Though as no alternative leader polls much better than May v Corbyn Labour and most poll worse if May does get a Deal next year it is not impossible she could still lead the Tories at the next general election anyway

    It might be significant that IDS suggested Hammond should be replaced as Chancellor not by Boris, Gove or Jacob Rees-Mogg but by Sajid Javid. If the Home Secretary has become the thinking Leavers' leader of choice, then we are back to Hunt and Javid pipping Hammond for a place on the final two.
    Oh God. You think Hammond is going to get 'pipped' to a place on the final two? He will be lucky to get 20 votes if he stands.

    If Boris really can't get enough votes to get on the final two ballot, the Leavers will coalesce around whichever Leaver looks most credible. This will not under any circumstances be Gove, as he is (quite correctly) considered to have sold out Leave. JRM would have a chance if Boris does not stand. Alternatively, start looking at the list of all the Leavers who have kept their principles relatively intact. If Raab ends up resigning before the contest he might have a shot. Otherwise check the other Leave cabinet ministers, excluding Leadsom and Grayling of course. Even Steve Baker might make a run if Boris does realise he can't win. But there is no way in the World that Leave MPs (of which there are of course well over 100) will not put a Leaver in the final two and whoever that is will win the membership vote.

    Sorry, Javid has blown it. He will be a good deputy to a true Leaver, but he will never be able to get over his tragic mistake in backing Remain.
    Leavers would need to vote as a block and since they cannot summon up 48 letters to the 22, that seems unlikely to happen. In any case, Brexit will be a fait accompli by the time of the leadership ballot. Ideological purity will be out of fashion. MPs will want a safe pair of hands and quiet competence while the new team tries to stabilise the economy and patch over the holes. The final three will be Hammond, Hunt and Javid; the final two, Hunt and Javid.

    Boris is too vulnerable to the sort of campaign we have seen against Corbyn. He will likely step down like last time. If he does not, then rival candidates' SpAds will be sent round the tea rooms to remind the electorate of his toxic back catalogue.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122
    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I do find the sense of entitlement of Boris and his supporters to be repellent. It reminds me of Gordon Brown who behaved as if he was entitled to inherit the Labour leadership without submitting himself to a proper election within the party. A similar sense of entitlement amongst the Coopers and Burnhams is in part why Corbyn won.

    Boris is not entitled to be in the last two. Nor should the rules be changed to accommodate him. If he cannot persuade MPs to back him, tough. We are a Parliamentary democracy and the leader of a political party should have the backing of a majority of his or her MPs.

    Just because Labour has gone down a different path is no reason for the Tories to copy them.

    So you'd change the Tory leadership contest too?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The last thing this country needs is 2 completely dysfunctional parties at the same time.

    Too late! We already have them
    True, but Vince won't hang on much longer.
    Make that three dysfunctional parties :)
    Whta would be the result, publicity-wise, of making the part-Palestinian Layla Moran LD Leader? Apaert from making the LD’s much more photogenic?
    Depends on if she has any form of ability, nothing to do with her heritage.
    A bright lady, apparently. Thoughtful. And determined....... well she wouldn’t be in politics if she wasn’t, would she!
    All very interesting as backstory but what does she stand for? Where would she try and lead the LDs? What would they stand for under her? A watery socialism, quasi-Orange book or some mystical third way? A change of leader without a thought change is hardly a panacea? Does the membership want change?
    To answer the last question first, whether they do or not, if, as appears to be the case, the current incumbent seems to want to retire, then there’s no option.

    Secondly, where would she try to lead the party is a perfectly reasonable question and I understand that’s something she’s going to talk about at Conference.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Ben on the existing rules it is highly unlikely we will have two former Remainers in the final two.

    After all in the last 3 contested Tory leadership elections Leadsom, David Davis and IDS all managed to get to the final two as hard line Eurosceptics as that wing of the party will ensure it gets a candidate sent to the membership.

    Though as no alternative leader polls much better than May v Corbyn Labour and most poll worse if May does get a Deal next year it is not impossible she could still lead the Tories at the next general election anyway

    It might be significant that IDS suggested Hammond should be replaced as Chancellor not by Boris, Gove or Jacob Rees-Mogg but by Sajid Javid. If the Home Secretary has become the thinking Leavers' leader of choice, then we are back to Hunt and Javid pipping Hammond for a place on the final two.
    Oh God. You think Hammond is going to get 'pipped' to a place on the final two? He will be lucky to get 20 votes if he stands.

    If Boris really can't get enough votes to get on the final two ballot, the Leavers will coalesce around whichever Leaver looks most credible. This will not under any circumstances be Gove, as he is (quite correctly) considered to have sold out Leave. JRM would have a chance if Boris does not stand. Alternatively, start looking at the list of all the Leavers who have kept their principles relatively intact. If Raab ends up resigning before the contest he might have a shot. Otherwise check the other Leave cabinet ministers, excluding Leadsom and Grayling of course. Even Steve Baker might make a run if Boris does realise he can't win. But there is no way in the World that Leave MPs (of which there are of course well over 100) will not put a Leaver in the final two and whoever that is will win the membership vote.

    Sorry, Javid has blown it. He will be a good deputy to a true Leaver, but he will never be able to get over his tragic mistake in backing Remain.
    The conservative party will not elect a Brexiteer to succeed TM. Javid and Hunt are the two leading candidates.

    Your hard Brexit is over and with respect what has it to do with you in Australia, you will not suffer the disaster of a hard Brexit. And unless you are a party member you do not even get a vote

    TM will do a deal and the Country will move on.
    If Javid and Hunt are the final two sent to members Javid likely wins.

    Otherwise if a Chequers Deal opponent gets to the members they likely win, hence May might survive for years if she gets a Deal
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I do find the sense of entitlement of Boris and his supporters to be repellent. It reminds me of Gordon Brown who behaved as if he was entitled to inherit the Labour leadership without submitting himself to a proper election within the party. A similar sense of entitlement amongst the Coopers and Burnhams is in part why Corbyn won.

    Boris is not entitled to be in the last two. Nor should the rules be changed to accommodate him. If he cannot persuade MPs to back him, tough. We are a Parliamentary democracy and the leader of a political party should have the backing of a majority of his or her MPs.

    Just because Labour has gone down a different path is no reason for the Tories to copy them.

    Pretty much what I said down thread. There is so little talent in politics at the moment that no party can afford to alienate substantial proportions of it by selecting a leader whose own MPs do not trust and will not serve. The reluctance of Labour to learn this lesson condemns them to further defeat.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:

    Britain is obviously a worse place than it was three years ago and is getting worse, more divided, more unhappy, more extreme politics, lower long term growth, more isolated. There is no light on the horizon and none can be expected for years. But there we are.
    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.
    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!
    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    I think Pope Francis' apology yesterday has helped with turnout for his visit and hopefully will be followed with further action, there were sizeable crows in Dublin when the Pope mobile went through yesterday and do not forget bar Italy Ireland is the most devout Catholic country in Western Europe still even despite the scandals.

    As an Argentine and the first non European Pope for centuries he also brings a different perspective to the traditional Catholic hierarchy
    Crows !!!!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    TM will do a deal and the Country will move on.

    It really won't no matter how much the tories wish it to be so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    I think Pope Francis' apology yesterday has helped with turnout for his visit and hopefully will be followed with further action, there were sizeable crows in Dublin when the Pope mobile went through yesterday and do not forget bar Italy Ireland is the most devout Catholic country in Western Europe still even despite the scandals.

    As an Argentine and the first non European Pope for centuries he also brings a different perspective to the traditional Catholic hierarchy
    Crows !!!!
    Apologies, that should have said crowds
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    Actually Ireland enjoyed an unusually hot and dry summer.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ben on the existing rules it is highly unlikely we will have two former Remainers in the final two.

    After all in the last 3 contested Tory leadership elections Leadsom, David Davis and IDS all managed to get to the final two as hard line Eurosceptics as that wing of the party will ensure it gets a candidate sent to the membership.

    Though as no alternative leader polls much better than May v Corbyn Labour and most poll worse if May does get a Deal next year it is not impossible she could still lead the Tories at the next general election anyway

    It might be significant that IDS suggested Hammond should be replaced as Chancellor not by Boris, Gove or Jacob Rees-Mogg but by Sajid Javid. If the Home Secretary has become the thinking Leavers' leader of choice, then we are back to Hunt and Javid pipping Hammond for a place on the final two.
    Oh God. You think Hammond is going to get 'pipped' to a place on the final two? He will be lucky to get 20 votes if he stands.

    If Boris really can't get enough votes to get on the final two ballot, the Leavers will coalesce around whichever Leaver looks most credible. This will not under any circumstances be Gove, as he is (quite correctly) considered to have sold out Leave. JRM would have a chance if Boris does not stand. Alternatively, start looking at the list of all the Leavers who have kept their principles relatively intact. If Raab ends up resigning before the contest he might have a shot. Otherwise check the other Leave cabinet ministers, excluding Leadsom and Grayling of course. Even Steve Baker might make a run if Boris does realise he can't win. But there is no way in the World that Leave MPs (of which there are of course well over 100) will not put a Leaver in the final two and whoever that is will win the membership vote.

    Sorry, Javid has blown it. He will be a good deputy to a true Leaver, but he will never be able to get over his tragic mistake in backing Remain.
    The conservative party will not elect a Brexiteer to succeed TM. Javid and Hunt are the two leading candidates.

    Your hard Brexit is over and with respect what has it to do with you in Australia, you will not suffer the disaster of a hard Brexit. And unless you are a party member you do not even get a vote

    TM will do a deal and the Country will move on.
    If Javid and Hunt are the final two sent to members Javid likely wins.

    Otherwise if a Chequers Deal opponent gets to the members they likely win, hence May might survive for years if she gets a Deal
    We are on the same page at last but not too many years for TM
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited August 2018
    Dura_Ace said:



    TM will do a deal and the Country will move on.

    It really won't no matter how much the tories wish it to be so.
    Diehard Remainers and Diehard Leavers will not move on, the rest of the country will
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Britain is obviously a worse place than it was three years ago and is getting worse, more divided, more unhappy, more extreme politics, lower long term growth, more isolated. There is no light on the horizon and none can be expected for years. But there we are.
    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.
    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!
    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    Fair play to you. Your point was congratulated as if no one had thought of it before, which made me think that it had never been made.

    I tried to make the point last week using the Room 101 scene of 1984 as an analogy. People under extreme pressure make decisions they would not when everything is tickety boo. I was told they'd never had it so good.
  • Dura_Ace said:



    TM will do a deal and the Country will move on.

    It really won't no matter how much the tories wish it to be so.
    You may be surprised. The public just want a deal to be done. Those who are politically engaged may well try to continue the hastle
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.

    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!
    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    This bit made me smile:

    ' The conversation between the haves and the have nots on this needs to change. It is no use going to Tuscany and admiring the unchanging culture, the old customs, the processions celebrating feast days with priests and villagers, unchanged since the Middle Ages but then sneering at those at home who wonder why those same people are so dismissive of provincial Britain and its culture. It’s not just charity which starts at home. An understanding of the world starts there too. '
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ben on the existing rules it is highly unlikely we will have two former Remainers in the final two.

    After all in the last 3 contested Tory leadership elections Leadsom, David Davis and IDS all managed to get to the final two as hard line Eurosceptics as that wing of the party will ensure it gets a candidate sent to the membership.

    Though as no alternative leader polls much better than May v Corbyn Labour and most poll worse if May does get a Deal next year it is not impossible she could still lead the Tories at the next general election anyway

    It might be significant that IDS suggested Hammond should be replaced as Chancellor not by Boris, Gove or Jacob Rees-Mogg but by Sajid Javid. If the Home Secretary has become the thinking Leavers' leader of choice, then we are back to Hunt and Javid pipping Hammond for a place on the final two.
    Oh God. You think Hammond is going to get 'pipped' to a place on the final two? He will be lucky to get 20 votes if he stands.

    If Boris really can't get enough votes to get on the final two ballot, the Leavers will coalesce around whichever Leaver looks most credible. This will not under any circumstances be Gove, as he

    Sorry, Javid has blown it. He will be a good deputy to a true Leaver, but he will never be able to get over his tragic mistake in backing Remain.
    The conservative party will not elect a Brexiteer to succeed TM. Javid and Hunt are the two leading candidates.

    Your hard Brexit is over and with respect what has it to do with you in Australia, you will not suffer the disaster of a hard Brexit. And unless you are a party member you do not even get a vote

    TM will do a deal and the Country will move on.
    If Javid and Hunt are the final two sent to members Javid likely wins.

    Otherwise if a Chequers Deal opponent gets to the members they likely win, hence May might survive for years if she gets a Deal
    We are on the same page at last but not too many years for TM
    Good to see, May's trump card is 'Best to keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse'
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Britain is obviously a worse place than it was three years ago and is getting worse, more divided, more unhappy, more extreme politics, lower long term growth, more isolated. There is no light on the horizon and none can be expected for years. But there we are.
    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.
    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!
    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    Fair play to you. Your point was congratulated as if no one had thought of it before, which made me think that it had never been made.

    I tried to make the point last week using the Room 101 scene of 1984 as an analogy. People under extreme pressure make decisions they would not when everything is tickety boo. I was told they'd never had it so good.
    And you made a complete ass of yourself, simultaneously arguing that people were both more affluent and in a nightmare.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    I think Pope Francis' apology yesterday has helped with turnout for his visit and hopefully will be followed with further action, there were sizeable crows in Dublin when the Pope mobile went through yesterday and do not forget bar Italy Ireland is the most devout Catholic country in Western Europe still even despite the scandals.

    As an Argentine and the first non European Pope for centuries he also brings a different perspective to the traditional Catholic hierarchy
    Crows !!!!
    Apologies, that should have said crowds
    I was only being pedantic and for your information I always have 2 weetabix on semi skimmed milk, (no sugar), with blueberries and coffee for brekky
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The last thing this country needs is 2 completely dysfunctional parties at the same time.

    Too late! We already have them
    True, but Vince won't hang on much longer.
    Make that three dysfunctional parties :)
    Whta would be the result, publicity-wise, of making the part-Palestinian Layla Moran LD Leader? Apaert from making the LD’s much more photogenic?
    Depends on if she has any form of ability, nothing to do with her heritage.
    A bright lady, apparently. Thoughtful. And determined....... well she wouldn’t be in politics if she wasn’t, would she!
    I would favour Lamb, but would want to see a contest and to see the candidates on the hustings.

    From what I see, coronations in any party don't work out well. There needs to be a threshing out of ideas.
    Will Lamb even be a candidate, after his health scare? As the LibDems have discovered with Vince Cable, you can't have a leader who wants the quiet life....
  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 297
    edited August 2018

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Britain is obviously a worse place than it was three years ago and is getting worse, more divided, more unhappy, more extreme politics, lower long term growth, more isolated. There is no light on the horizon and none can be expected for years. But there we are.
    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.
    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!
    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    Fair play to you. Your point was congratulated as if no one had thought of it before, which made me think that it had never been made.

    I tried to make the point last week using the Room 101 scene of 1984 as an analogy. People under extreme pressure make decisions they would not when everything is tickety boo. I was told they'd never had it so good.
    And you made a complete ass of yourself, simultaneously arguing that people were both more affluent and in a nightmare.
    Not at all. I made the point that if you give someone with one grain of rice to eat per day an extra grain of rice, they are both more affluent and in a nightmarish situation.

    People are more affluent compared to a century ago more or less everywhere, that doesn't mean those at the bottom are being treated fairly
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    I think Pope Francis' apology yesterday has helped with turnout for his visit and hopefully will be followed with further action, there were sizeable crows in Dublin when the Pope mobile went through yesterday and do not forget bar Italy Ireland is the most devout Catholic country in Western Europe still even despite the scandals.

    As an Argentine and the first non European Pope for centuries he also brings a different perspective to the traditional Catholic hierarchy
    Crows !!!!
    Apologies, that should have said crowds
    I was only being pedantic and for your information I always have 2 weetabix on semi skimmed milk, (no sugar), with blueberries and coffee for brekky
    Sounds very tasty
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    I think Pope Francis' apology yesterday has helped with turnout for his visit and hopefully will be followed with further action, there were sizeable crows in Dublin when the Pope mobile went through yesterday and do not forget bar Italy Ireland is the most devout Catholic country in Western Europe still even despite the scandals.

    As an Argentine and the first non European Pope for centuries he also brings a different perspective to the traditional Catholic hierarchy
    Crows !!!!
    Apologies, that should have said crowds
    I was only being pedantic and for your information I always have 2 weetabix on semi skimmed milk, (no sugar), with blueberries and coffee for brekky
    And fear not dear in your last but one post maybe !!!!!!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.

    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!
    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    This bit made me smile:

    ' The conversation between the haves and the have nots on this needs to change. It is no use going to Tuscany and admiring the unchanging culture, the old customs, the processions celebrating feast days with priests and villagers, unchanged since the Middle Ages but then sneering at those at home who wonder why those same people are so dismissive of provincial Britain and its culture. It’s not just charity which starts at home. An understanding of the world starts there too. '
    For those lovers of diversity, this is always my question - do they go on holiday to places like Tuscany and think "this could do with some more immigrants"?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    To take Cyclefree’s point earlier, I had some doubts about my Remain vote, mainly because a number of my professional colleagues were complaining bitterly about one or two of the bigger pharmaceutical companies deliberately recruiting East European pharmacists at significantly reduced salaries. Good for East Europeans, low to very low by British.

    There were already a significant number of Spanish pharmacists around but they didn’t seem to cause a problem.
  • @another_richard as I have disabled parents I do know a little bit about the relative impact upon disabled people of the various governments over time. There is a world of difference between tightening up to prevent abuse - Blair - and driving disabled people to commit suicide after "curing" them - Cameron/May.

    if your only response to the disgusting abuse of the most vulnerable by this government is whataboutery then thats pretty sad.

    Altogether now with the response from party loyalists throughout history:

    "Our disability cuts good, your disability cuts bad"

    "Our side good, your side bad"

    "Four legs good, two legs bad"
    Its even simpler than that. Kali Ma loons say "eugh, New Labour brought in ATOS". And we did - with a tight brief to weed out obvious scammers. Both my parents with "for life" rulings had brief ATOS reviews pre-2010, medical documents looked at and understood, left alone.

    A world of difference from Coalition and Tory assessments where in so many cases the medical evidence is ignored only for the appeal to be won - all at huge cost to the taxpayer. Similar with paraplegics having cars and wheelchairs taken away having been cured then getting them back, army vets being asked if their legs will grow back, appeals won posthumously after the cured appellant had died of their condition etc etc etc.

    Its called gratuitously not giving a fuck. And here's the thing. For all that the left demonised Maggie, she would never had done such egregious horrors. She had morals. And honour. And basic human decency. A pity they have all been removed from today's Conservative Party.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    I think Pope Francis' apology yesterday has helped with turnout for his visit and hopefully will be followed with further action, there were sizeable crows in Dublin when the Pope mobile went through yesterday and do not forget bar Italy Ireland is the most devout Catholic country in Western Europe still even despite the scandals.

    As an Argentine and the first non European Pope for centuries he also brings a different perspective to the traditional Catholic hierarchy
    Crows !!!!
    Apologies, that should have said crowds
    I was only being pedantic and for your information I always have 2 weetabix on semi skimmed milk, (no sugar), with blueberries and coffee for brekky
    Sounds very tasty
    I have had it for years and am a great believer in a daily portion of blueberries as us men get older
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ben on the existing rules it is highly unlikely we will have two former Remainers in the final two.

    After all in the last 3 contested Tory leadership elections Leadsom, David Davis and IDS all managed to get to the final two as hard line Eurosceptics as that wing of the party will ensure it gets a candidate sent to the membership.

    Though as no alternative leader polls much better than May v Corbyn Labour and most poll worse if May does get a Deal next year it is not impossible she could still lead the Tories at the next general election anyway

    It might be significant that IDS suggested Hammond should be replaced as Chancellor not by Boris, Gove or Jacob Rees-Mogg but by Sajid Javid. If the Home Secretary has become the thinking Leavers' leader of choice, then we are back to Hunt and Javid pipping Hammond for a place on the final two.
    Oh God. You think Hammond is going to get 'pipped' to a place on the final two? He will be lucky to get 20 votes if he stands.

    If Boris really can't get enough votes to get on the final two ballot, the Leavers will coalesce around whichever Leaver looks most credible. This will not under any circumstances be Gove, as he

    Sorry, Javid has blown it. He will be a good deputy to a true Leaver, but he will never be able to get over his tragic mistake in backing Remain.
    The conservative party will not elect a Brexiteer to succeed TM. Javid and Hunt are the two leading candidates.

    Your hard Brexit is over and with respect what has it to do with you in Australia, you will not suffer the disaster of a hard Brexit. And unless you are a party member you do not even get a vote

    TM will do a deal and the Country will move on.
    If Javid and Hunt are the final two sent to members Javid likely wins.

    Otherwise if a Chequers Deal opponent gets to the members they likely win, hence May might survive for years if she gets a Deal
    We are on the same page at last but not too many years for TM
    Good to see, May's trump card is 'Best to keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse'
    Well it was certainly true for Jim.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited August 2018

    Cyclefree said:



    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!

    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    Fair play to you. Your point was congratulated as if no one had thought of it before, which made me think that it had never been made.

    I tried to make the point last week using the Room 101 scene of 1984 as an analogy. People under extreme pressure make decisions they would not when everything is tickety boo. I was told they'd never had it so good.
    And you made a complete ass of yourself, simultaneously arguing that people were both more affluent and in a nightmare.
    Not at all. I made the point that if you give someone with one grain of rice to eat per day an extra grain of rice, they are both more affluent and in a nightmarish situation.

    People are more affluent compared to a century ago more or less everywhere, that doesn't mean those at the bottom are being treated fairly
    You sought to engage in spectacular whataboutery when I pointed out the decisive groups in the referendum were pensioners, who are more affluent than ever (not just absolutely but relatively), and affluent reactionaries. Then you tied yourself up in knots.

    Just as the French Revolution didn’t happen because peasants were starving, Brexit was essentially driven by people who felt rich enough to indulge their prejudices.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2018
    OT the BBC has a new politics-related thriller starting tonight at nine.

    A specialist protection officer is assigned to guard an ambitious Home Secretary who may be the target of a terror plot following her support of a controversial new surveillance bill. The bodyguard's experiences in the army have left him harbouring deep-seated resentments -- which may make him a threat to the politician he is supposed to protect.

    ETA: look out for it in the BAFTA betting when the market is formed.
  • Just listening to the Pope speech and apology for the abuse by his Church it just seems it would have been so much better to be delivered in English but maybe that is not possible
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    I think Pope Francis' apology yesterday has helped with turnout for his visit and hopefully will be followed with further action, there were sizeable crows in Dublin when the Pope mobile went through yesterday and do not forget bar Italy Ireland is the most devout Catholic country in Western Europe still even despite the scandals.

    As an Argentine and the first non European Pope for centuries he also brings a different perspective to the traditional Catholic hierarchy
    Crows !!!!
    Apologies, that should have said crowds
    I was only being pedantic and for your information I always have 2 weetabix on semi skimmed milk, (no sugar), with blueberries and coffee for brekky
    Sounds very tasty
    I have had it for years and am a great believer in a daily portion of blueberries as us men get older
    The best thing about blueberries is you can now buy them covered in chocolate at most supermarkets.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    edited August 2018

    @another_richard as I have disabled parents I do know a little bit about the relative impact upon disabled people of the various governments over time. There is a world of difference between tightening up to prevent abuse - Blair - and driving disabled people to commit suicide after "curing" them - Cameron/May.

    if your only response to the disgusting abuse of the most vulnerable by this government is whataboutery then thats pretty sad.

    Altogether now with the response from party loyalists throughout history:

    "Our disability cuts good, your disability cuts bad"

    "Our side good, your side bad"

    "Four legs good, two legs bad"
    Its even simpler than that. Kali Ma loons say "eugh, New Labour brought in ATOS". And we did - with a tight brief to weed out obvious scammers. Both my parents with "for life" rulings had brief ATOS reviews pre-2010, medical documents looked at and understood, left alone.

    A world of difference from Coalition and Tory assessments where in so many cases the medical evidence is ignored only for the appeal to be won - all at huge cost to the taxpayer. Similar with paraplegics having cars and wheelchairs taken away having been cured then getting them back, army vets being asked if their legs will grow back, appeals won posthumously after the cured appellant had died of their condition etc etc etc.

    Its called gratuitously not giving a fuck. And here's the thing. For all that the left demonised Maggie, she would never had done such egregious horrors. She had morals. And honour. And basic human decency. A pity they have all been removed from today's Conservative Party.
    To be fair, Mr P, an uncle of mine lost a leg in Normandy shortly after D Day, and of course received 100% disability pension. At the time of Suez he was called up for a medical.

    Uncle simply turned up to the medical appointment, on crutches, without his articial leg. Said afterwards you could hear the desk sergeant swearing about people who made such errors some way away.

    On the other side, as a former CAB Trustee I’m very well aware of the number of totally unneccessary appeals we won.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    I think Pope Francis' apology yesterday has helped with turnout for his visit and hopefully will be followed with further action, there were sizeable crows in Dublin when the Pope mobile went through yesterday and do not forget bar Italy Ireland is the most devout Catholic country in Western Europe still even despite the scandals.

    As an Argentine and the first non European Pope for centuries he also brings a different perspective to the traditional Catholic hierarchy
    Crows !!!!
    Apologies, that should have said crowds
    I was only being pedantic and for your information I always have 2 weetabix on semi skimmed milk, (no sugar), with blueberries and coffee for brekky
    Sounds very tasty
    I have had it for years and am a great believer in a daily portion of blueberries as us men get older
    The best thing about blueberries is you can now buy them covered in chocolate at most supermarkets.
    That is worse than pineapple on pizza
  • surby said:

    DavidL said:

    From The Sunday Times.

    A Better Brexit group of 40 Tory MPs close to Michael Gove plan to threaten to oppose a no-deal departure.

    Given that Gove regrets the way Vote Leave campaigned and that he ended up ending Dave's Premiership I suspect it won't be long before Gove will be publicly supporting BINO.

    The Chequers Deal is not BINO.

    As Sky's Economics Editor has pointed out, the Chequers deal is closer to a hard/no deal Brexit than to a soft Brexit.

    It's just that May is so piss-poor at politics, both sides are rinsing it now.
    That is a very good point. Once again, as at every stage of May's premiership, there is no leadership, no vision, no attempt to persuade. Why has she not been out there batting for her Chequers deal at every opportunity, explaining why in her view it is a good compromise for the country and in our interests?

    Her idea of leadership is to make a one off speech and refer back to it from time to time as if we all walked about with a copy of it in our back pockets for reference. She has absolutely no idea how to do politics. Having explained how I think the Tory rules are supposed to operate how the hell did the party end up with a choice between her and Leadsom? Is it a nanny fixation?
    You say May is not a politician. But she managed to go to the top of the greasy pole!

    She does not have a personal supporters club. Maybe that's why she became PM. And stays there as other groups cancel each other out.
    Like The Patrician in Discworld ?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    7th september Cable to announce resignation.Next LD leader betting 8/11 Swinson 2-1 Moran.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122

    Just listening to the Pope speech and apology for the abuse by his Church it just seems it would have been so much better to be delivered in English but maybe that is not possible

    Or Gaelic.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    Just as the French Revolution didn’t happen because peasants were starving, Brexit was essentially driven by people who felt rich enough to indulge their prejudices.

    Brexit as the French Revolution is an interesting comparison. Starts as a bit of constitutional tinkering, ends in with the country in flames and blood running in the gutters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    surby said:

    DavidL said:

    From The Sunday Times.

    A Better Brexit group of 40 Tory MPs close to Michael Gove plan to threaten to oppose a no-deal departure.

    Given that Gove regrets the way Vote Leave campaigned and that he ended up ending Dave's Premiership I suspect it won't be long before Gove will be publicly supporting BINO.

    The Chequers Deal is not BINO.

    As Sky's Economics Editor has pointed out, the Chequers deal is closer to a hard/no deal Brexit than to a soft Brexit.

    It's just that May is so piss-poor at politics, both sides are rinsing it now.
    That is a very good point. Once again, as at every stage of May's premiership, there is no leadership, no vision, no attempt to persuade. Why has she not been out there batting for her Chequers deal at every opportunity, explaining why in her view it is a good compromise for the country and in our interests?

    Her idea of leadership is to make a one off speech and refer back to it from time to time as if we all walked about with a copy of it in our back pockets for reference. She has absolutely no idea how to do politics. Having explained how I think the Tory rules are supposed to operate how the hell did the party end up with a choice between her and Leadsom? Is it a nanny fixation?
    You say May is not a politician. But she managed to go to the top of the greasy pole!

    She does not have a personal supporters club. Maybe that's why she became PM. And stays there as other groups cancel each other out.
    Like The Patrician in Discworld ?
    I think he had other skills such as being the best assassin of his generation. One of my favourite characters.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    I think Pope Francis' apology yesterday has helped with turnout for his visit and hopefully will be followed with further action, there were sizeable crows in Dublin when the Pope mobile went through yesterday and do not forget bar Italy Ireland is the most devout Catholic country in Western Europe still even despite the scandals.

    As an Argentine and the first non European Pope for centuries he also brings a different perspective to the traditional Catholic hierarchy
    Crows !!!!
    Apologies, that should have said crowds
    I was only being pedantic and for your information I always have 2 weetabix on semi skimmed milk, (no sugar), with blueberries and coffee for brekky
    Sounds very tasty
    I have had it for years and am a great believer in a daily portion of blueberries as us men get older
    The best thing about blueberries is you can now buy them covered in chocolate at most supermarkets.
    That is worse than pineapple on pizza
    I can see it now. Chocolate covered Blueberries. On Pizza. Battered and deep fried...
  • Cyclefree said:



    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!

    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    Fair play to you. Your point was congratulated as if no one had thought of it before, which made me think that it had never been made.

    I tried to make the point last week using the Room 101 scene of 1984 as an analogy. People under extreme pressure make decisions they would not when everything is tickety boo. I was told they'd never had it so good.
    And you made a complete ass of yourself, simultaneously arguing that people were both more affluent and in a nightmare.
    Not at all. I made the point that if you give someone with one grain of rice to eat per day an extra grain of rice, they are both more affluent and in a nightmarish situation.

    People are more affluent compared to a century ago more or less everywhere, that doesn't mean those at the bottom are being treated fairly
    You sought to engage in spectacular whataboutery when I pointed out the decisive groups in the referendum were pensioners, who are more affluent than ever (not just absolutely but relatively), and affluent reactionaries. Then you tied yourself up in knots.

    Just as the French Revolution didn’t happen because peasants were starving, Brexit was essentially driven by people who felt rich enough to indulge their prejudices.
    What would the referendum result have been if only the poorest in society voted?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Cyclefree said:



    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!

    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    Fair play to you. Your point was congratulated as if no one had thought of it before, which made me think that it had never been made.

    I tried to make the point last week using the Room 101 scene of 1984 as an analogy. People under extreme pressure make decisions they would not when everything is tickety boo. I was told they'd never had it so good.
    And you made a complete ass of yourself, simultaneously arguing that people were both more affluent and in a nightmare.
    Not at all. I made the point that if you give someone with one grain of rice to eat per day an extra grain of rice, they are both more affluent and in a nightmarish situation.

    People are more affluent compared to a century ago more or less everywhere, that doesn't mean those at the bottom are being treated fairly
    You sought to engage in spectacular whataboutery when I pointed out the decisive groups in the referendum were pensioners, who are more affluent than ever (not just absolutely but relatively), and affluent reactionaries. Then you tied yourself up in knots.

    Just as the French Revolution didn’t happen because peasants were starving, Brexit was essentially driven by people who felt rich enough to indulge their prejudices.
    What would the referendum result have been if only the poorest in society voted?
    Undemocratic.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,307
    tlg86 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.

    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!
    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    This bit made me smile:

    ' The conversation between the haves and the have nots on this needs to change. It is no use going to Tuscany and admiring the unchanging culture, the old customs, the processions celebrating feast days with priests and villagers, unchanged since the Middle Ages but then sneering at those at home who wonder why those same people are so dismissive of provincial Britain and its culture. It’s not just charity which starts at home. An understanding of the world starts there too. '
    For those lovers of diversity, this is always my question - do they go on holiday to places like Tuscany and think "this could do with some more immigrants"?
    Clearly, the English who retire there do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited August 2018

    Cyclefree said:



    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!

    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    Fair play to you. Your point was congratulated as if no one had thought of it before, which made me think that it had never been made.

    I tried to make the point last week using the Room 101 scene of 1984 as an analogy. People under extreme pressure make decisions they would not when everything is tickety boo. I was told they'd never had it so good.
    And you made a complete ass of yourself, simultaneously arguing that people were both more affluent and in a nightmare.
    Not at all. I made the point that if you give someone with one grain of rice to eat per day an extra grain of rice, they are both more affluent and in a nightmarish situation.

    People are more affluent compared to a century ago more or less everywhere, that doesn't mean those at the bottom are being treated fairly
    You sought to engage in spectacular whataboutery when I pointed out the decisive groups in the referendum were pensioners, who are more affluent than ever (not just absolutely but relatively), and affluent reactionaries. Then you tied yourself up in knots.

    Just as the French Revolution didn’t happen because peasants were starving, Brexit was essentially driven by people who felt rich enough to indulge their prejudices.
    It was actually middle aged working class and lower middle class 45 to 55 year olds who were the voters first more likely to back Leave than Remain. Pensioners and affluent reactionaries alone were not enough to win the EU referendum for Leave.

    A large part of that can be attributed to Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163

    @another_richard as I have disabled parents I do know a little bit about the relative impact upon disabled people of the various governments over time. There is a world of difference between tightening up to prevent abuse - Blair - and driving disabled people to commit suicide after "curing" them - Cameron/May.

    if your only response to the disgusting abuse of the most vulnerable by this government is whataboutery then thats pretty sad.

    Altogether now with the response from party loyalists throughout history:

    "Our disability cuts good, your disability cuts bad"

    "Our side good, your side bad"

    "Four legs good, two legs bad"
    Its even simpler than that. Kali Ma loons say "eugh, New Labour brought in ATOS". And we did - with a tight brief to weed out obvious scammers. Both my parents with "for life" rulings had brief ATOS reviews pre-2010, medical documents looked at and understood, left alone.

    A world of difference from Coalition and Tory assessments where in so many cases the medical evidence is ignored only for the appeal to be won - all at huge cost to the taxpayer. Similar with paraplegics having cars and wheelchairs taken away having been cured then getting them back, army vets being asked if their legs will grow back, appeals won posthumously after the cured appellant had died of their condition etc etc etc.

    Its called gratuitously not giving a fuck. And here's the thing. For all that the left demonised Maggie, she would never had done such egregious horrors. She had morals. And honour. And basic human decency. A pity they have all been removed from today's Conservative Party.
    The ESA and PIP system is a disgrace to this country. God knows what the cost of the completely backlogged appeals system is, never mind the mental anguish.


    Of course, most voters have absolutely no idea what goes on and the way people are treated. Indeed, Goodwin was pointing out the other day that many voters want even further clamp down on benefits.

    Maybe it is human nature, but it never seems to occur to such people that they are one accident or bad luck diagnosis away from needing these benefits themselves.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    And are you going to conduct the same exercise for every general election too?
  • And are you going to conduct the same exercise for every general election too?
    No sirree
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    Before someone pops up and asks again why I am still in the party and seeking election under the Labour banner its simple. The alternative is a Tory government whose engage in repeated bouts of dog whistle racism (Are you thinking what we're thinking?) and do all they can to shit on the disabled. Its hardly like the Tories are a bastion of goodness.

    Yet the entire Labour party cheered when Gordon Brown ranted about "British Jobs For British Workers" like a BNP street thug.

    As to the disabled this is from 1997:

    ' Rebel Labour MPs have reacted angrily to a leaked memo which shows the government is considering cuts to disability and sickness benefits. '

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/39285.stm

    this is from 1999:

    ' Prime Minister Tony Blair has defended the proposed cuts in disabled benefits, which threaten to cause the largest backbench revolt since Labour came to power.
    More than 60 Labour MPs remain set to vote against the Welfare Reform and Pensions Bill when it returns to the Commons on Thursday.

    They are deeply concerned about the effect on disabled people of plans to means-test and restrict access to incapacity benefit.

    Several major charities previously resigned from a government advisory panel in protest at the cuts. '

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/347747.stm

    and this is from 2004:

    ' More than one million claimants are to lose benefits of £23.30 a week in a clampdown by Tony Blair on welfare abuse.

    The Prime Minister's advisers have drawn up plans to scrap the disability premium, paid to about 1.1 million people, as part of a strategy to save £2 billion in the welfare budget. '

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1471533/Blair-faces-revolt-over-plans-for-23-a-week-cut-in-disability-benefit.html
    Is the question, why is Tony Blair hated and despised?
    Yet Labour politicians were quite happy with Blair until he looked like an election loser.
    You are confusing yourself with Thatcher. Blair was despised ever since the Iraq war.
  • Scott_P said:
    If the gathering was real then its clear that the wobblers are being leaned on to NOT quit the party. Lord Fighter not a Quitter stuck with Labour when the SDP scabbed off, came back to be Smithers to Gordon Brown, and seems happy in his elder luvviedarling status. Watson is the defacto leader of members who aren't Kali Ma (even though many of us thought the idea of a Watson deputy leadership onerous in 2015).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:
    The story of that middle aged woman is basically the premise in the excellent recent Dominic Cooper and Gamma Arthertob film 'The Escape'
    Neither of whom are middle aged. Few women 50+ who haven’t thought at some point: “Sod this!”

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122

    tlg86 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.

    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!
    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    This bit made me smile:

    ' The conversation between the haves and the have nots on this needs to change. It is no use going to Tuscany and admiring the unchanging culture, the old customs, the processions celebrating feast days with priests and villagers, unchanged since the Middle Ages but then sneering at those at home who wonder why those same people are so dismissive of provincial Britain and its culture. It’s not just charity which starts at home. An understanding of the world starts there too. '
    For those lovers of diversity, this is always my question - do they go on holiday to places like Tuscany and think "this could do with some more immigrants"?
    Clearly, the English who retire there do.
    And look what happens to the reputation of areas where there are too many English immigrants (i.e. Spain). Very much the wrong type of diversity.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.

    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!
    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    This bit made me smile:

    ' The conversation between the haves and the have nots on this needs to change. It is no use going to Tuscany and admiring the unchanging culture, the old customs, the processions celebrating feast days with priests and villagers, unchanged since the Middle Ages but then sneering at those at home who wonder why those same people are so dismissive of provincial Britain and its culture. It’s not just charity which starts at home. An understanding of the world starts there too. '
    For those lovers of diversity, this is always my question - do they go on holiday to places like Tuscany and think "this could do with some more immigrants"?
    Generally they live in places like inner city London and think “this is a place that has lots of immigrants and works”.

    Immigrants are unpopular largely with those who don’t live with them and whose local economies, for related reasons, are in long term decline. They seek to drag the successful parts of the country down with them.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    And are you going to conduct the same exercise for every general election too?
    No sirree
    Funny that. Your vaunted concern for the poor ends when it stops being a prop to justify the reactionary prejudices of the affluent.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122

    tlg86 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.

    How has it taken two years for middle class people who did well out of the EU to consider this?!
    It hasn’t taken me two years. I said so at the time in a thread header shortly after May became PM - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/
    This bit made me smile:

    ' The conversation between the haves and the have nots on this needs to change. It is no use going to Tuscany and admiring the unchanging culture, the old customs, the processions celebrating feast days with priests and villagers, unchanged since the Middle Ages but then sneering at those at home who wonder why those same people are so dismissive of provincial Britain and its culture. It’s not just charity which starts at home. An understanding of the world starts there too. '
    For those lovers of diversity, this is always my question - do they go on holiday to places like Tuscany and think "this could do with some more immigrants"?
    Generally they live in places like inner city London and think “this is a place that has lots of immigrants and works”.

    Immigrants are unpopular largely with those who don’t live with them and whose local economies, for related reasons, are in long term decline. They seek to drag the successful parts of the country down with them.
    The live in areas of Inner London with the right type of immigrants.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    Handy list of Labour policies:

    https://twitter.com/ripplecabin/status/1033492823637680129

    Extra £30 for ESA, but I couldn't see anything about reforming how Maximus and DWP handle the medicals (ATOS dropped out of this work last year).
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Pope being rained on literally. Dreadful weather in Ireland

    Rain in Ireland? Who could have anticipated that!

    I am no fan of the Catholic Church, but it is encouraging to see a leader willing to meet with critics and opponents rather than just the comfort zone of supporters.

    I think Pope Francis' apology yesterday has helped with turnout for his visit and hopefully will be followed with further action, there were sizeable crows in Dublin when the Pope mobile went through yesterday and do not forget bar Italy Ireland is the most devout Catholic country in Western Europe still even despite the scandals.

    As an Argentine and the first non European Pope for centuries he also brings a different perspective to the traditional Catholic hierarchy
    Crows !!!!
    Apologies, that should have said crowds
    I was only being pedantic and for your information I always have 2 weetabix on semi skimmed milk, (no sugar), with blueberries and coffee for brekky
    Sounds very tasty
    I have had it for years and am a great believer in a daily portion of blueberries as us men get older
    The best thing about blueberries is you can now buy them covered in chocolate at most supermarkets.
    That is worse than pineapple on pizza
    I can see it now. Chocolate covered Blueberries. On Pizza. Battered and deep fried...
    What have we started !!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited August 2018
    Scott_P said:
    10 MPs....they aren't going to jump ship with such small numbers, even if they did have a backbone, which they don't.
  • And are you going to conduct the same exercise for every general election too?
    No sirree
    Funny that. Your vaunted concern for the poor ends when it stops being a prop to justify the reactionary prejudices of the affluent.
    No, referendums are different to General Elections. It was the only time in modern history people could vote for change with a chance of it actually winning. The fact that UKIP got 1/8th of the vote and 1/650th of the representation in 2015 shows that.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    edited August 2018

    Cyclefree said:



    Britain is obviously a worse place than it was three years ago and is getting worse, more divided, more unhappy, more extreme politics, lower long term growth, more isolated. There is no light on the horizon and none can be expected for years. But there we are.

    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.
    This is a good question that deserves a full answer. I will seek to address it when I get a bit of time. For now, it’s worth noting that if no one talks to the middle-aged woman about how plausible her imagined alternatives are, she may make poor choices. No one has been making the case for solid stability in Britain for many years.

    On your other question, no that’s not a correct statement of my position. Immigration is a subject where it’s easy to frighten people by working on their basest instincts rather than have a measured discussion and the Leave campaign consciously opted to frighten people.
    Thank you for your clarification. I look forward to your answer.

    For now, I will tease you a bit. A man preaching the virtues of solid stability to a middle aged woman who has been relied on but ignored for years is.... well, brave.

    The point about middle aged women is that they become invisible, often despite being wise, comfortable in their own skin at last and beautiful. They need to fight to be heard and, even then, are often patronised or described in insulting terms: “harridan”, “bossy”, “nagging”. They are relied on but not valued.

    And rather more than you might expect are not just content with the “deep deep peace of the double bed” but would like to enjoy once more the “hurly burly of the chaise longue”.

    :)


  • I can see it now. Chocolate covered Blueberries. On Pizza. Battered and deep fried...

    What have we started !!!

    It IS just the start. The question we still need to answer - what else goes on the pizza as well as chocolate covered blueberries? I'm thinking chicken as a starter for 10 - goes well with juicy fruit like pineapple...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    And are you going to conduct the same exercise for every general election too?
    No sirree
    Funny that. Your vaunted concern for the poor ends when it stops being a prop to justify the reactionary prejudices of the affluent.
    No, referendums are different to General Elections. It was the only time in modern history people could vote for change with a chance of it actually winning. The fact that UKIP got 1/8th of the vote and 1/650th of the representation in 2015 shows that.
    “My hobbyhorse is much more important than every other policy that other people care about.”

    Stop using the poor as a cloak for your own prejudices.


  • I can see it now. Chocolate covered Blueberries. On Pizza. Battered and deep fried...

    What have we started !!!
    It IS just the start. The question we still need to answer - what else goes on the pizza as well as chocolate covered blueberries? I'm thinking chicken as a starter for 10 - goes well with juicy fruit like pineapple...


    My problem is I do not eat pizza but I do like blueberries and pineapple
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Maybe what we have discovered in the last three years is that what we thought was a reasonably contented country was not in fact so and that we were living in a fool’s paradise, one reason possibly that extreme politics has had a purchase on us. It is - or should be - a wake up call which few are heeding.

    There is the phenomenon of the middle-aged woman who, to the astonishment of her husband, family and friends, walks out of her marriage. Everything seemed fine, there were no obvious signs of distress, nice house, a good lifestyle, kids doing well, the usual dinner parties but in reality she was not happy and the prospect of another 20 or 30 years like this, without even the distraction of work or children, was just too much to bear. Now she’s poor, has lost her social circle and is prey to all sorts of unsuitable partners. How daft of her when what she had before was so much better. But that’s the point: to her it was not good and not better than the imagined alternative.

    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.

    This is a good question that deserves a full answer. I will seek to address it when I get a bit of time. For now, it’s worth noting that if no one talks to the middle-aged woman about how plausible her imagined alternatives are, she may make poor choices. No one has been making the case for solid stability in Britain for many years.

    On your other question, no that’s not a correct statement of my position. Immigration is a subject where it’s easy to frighten people by working on their basest instincts rather than have a measured discussion and the Leave campaign consciously opted to frighten people.
    Thank you for your clarification. I look forward to your answer.

    For now, I will tease you a bit. A man preaching the virtues of solid stability to a middle aged woman who has been relied on but ignored for years is.... well, brave.

    The point about middle aged women is that they become invisible, often despite being wise, comfortable in their own skin at last and beautiful. They need to fight to be heard and, even then, are often patronised or described in insulting terms: “harridan”, “bossy”, “nagging”. They are relied on but not valued.

    And rather more than you might expect are not just content with the “deep deep peace of the double bed” but would like to enjoy once more the “hurly burly of the chaise longue”.

    :)
    Men as well as women have midlife crises. They rarely end well either.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    Beyond parody:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1033515425336885248

    McCain had the last laugh, Trump is banned from the funeral.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:




    Maybe you and I and people like us who benefited hugely from the previous settlement need to realise that for others it was not anywhere near as it good as it was for us and ask ourselves why that was.

    This is a good question that deserves a full answer. I will seek to address it when I get a bit of time. For now, it’s worth noting that if no one talks to the middle-aged woman about how plausible her imagined alternatives are, she may make poor choices. No one has been making the case for solid stability in Britain for many years.

    On your other question, no that’s not a correct statement of my position. Immigration is a subject where it’s easy to frighten people by working on their basest instincts rather than have a measured discussion and the Leave campaign consciously opted to frighten people.
    Thank you for your clarification. I look forward to your answer.

    For now, I will tease you a bit. A man preaching the virtues of solid stability to a middle aged woman who has been relied on but ignored for years is.... well, brave.

    The point about middle aged women is that they become invisible, often despite being wise, comfortable in their own skin at last and beautiful. They need to fight to be heard and, even then, are often patronised or described in insulting terms: “harridan”, “bossy”, “nagging”. They are relied on but not valued.

    And rather more than you might expect are not just content with the “deep deep peace of the double bed” but would like to enjoy once more the “hurly burly of the chaise longue”.

    :)
    Men as well as women have midlife crises. They rarely end well either.
    Oh I am sure. But middle aged men do not find themselves invisible and undervalued in the way that women of the same age do. It is often their prime, when they reach the commanding heights of their career and are listened to, sought out etc. Look at any profession or company and see how many women in their 50’s who have families are in positions of power.

    It is not just a mid-life crisis for women. It is about feeling useless and un or undervalued at precisely the time when they have a great deal to contribute beyond what they do already while at the same time being expected - as usual - to keep the whole bloody show on the road, usually for little reward.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207

    Beyond parody:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1033515425336885248

    McCain had the last laugh, Trump is banned from the funeral.

    He shoud be impeached for inappropriate use of the exclamation mark....
  • DavidL said:

    surby said:

    DavidL said:

    From The Sunday Times.

    A Better Brexit group of 40 Tory MPs close to Michael Gove plan to threaten to oppose a no-deal departure.

    Given that Gove regrets the way Vote Leave campaigned and that he ended up ending Dave's Premiership I suspect it won't be long before Gove will be publicly supporting BINO.

    The Chequers Deal is not BINO.

    As Sky's Economics Editor has pointed out, the Chequers deal is closer to a hard/no deal Brexit than to a soft Brexit.

    It's just that May is so piss-poor at politics, both sides are rinsing it now.
    That is a very good point. Once again, as at every stage of May's premiership, there is no leadership, no vision, no attempt to persuade. Why has she not been out there batting for her Chequers deal at every opportunity, explaining why in her view it is a good compromise for the country and in our interests?

    Her idea of leadership is to make a one off speech and refer back to it from time to time as if we all walked about with a copy of it in our back pockets for reference. She has absolutely no idea how to do politics. Having explained how I think the Tory rules are supposed to operate how the hell did the party end up with a choice between her and Leadsom? Is it a nanny fixation?
    You say May is not a politician. But she managed to go to the top of the greasy pole!

    She does not have a personal supporters club. Maybe that's why she became PM. And stays there as other groups cancel each other out.
    Like The Patrician in Discworld ?
    I think he had other skills such as being the best assassin of his generation. One of my favourite characters.
    He failed his stealth class because the teacher didn’t think he’d ever turned up...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    On topic is Boris a dumb blonde? I don't think so, I think he is actually pretty clever.

    He's also untrustworthy, intellectually dishonest, lazy, self centred, conceited, unserious, unreliable, incapable of loyalty or generating much in the way of loyalty and not a suitable person to be PM. But he's not dumb.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    surby said:

    DavidL said:

    From The Sunday Times.

    A Better Brexit group of 40 Tory MPs close to Michael Gove plan to threaten to oppose a no-deal departure.

    Given that Gove regrets the way Vote Leave campaigned and that he ended up ending Dave's Premiership I suspect it won't be long before Gove will be publicly supporting BINO.

    The Chequers Deal is not BINO.

    As Sky's Economics Editor has pointed out, the Chequers deal is closer to a hard/no deal Brexit than to a soft Brexit.

    It's just that May is so piss-poor at politics, both sides are rinsing it now.
    That is a very good point. Once again, as at every stage of May's premiership, there is no leadership, no vision, no attempt to persuade. Why has she not been out there batting for her Chequers deal at every opportunity, explaining why in her view it is a good compromise for the country and in our interests?

    Her idea of leadership is to make a one off speech and refer back to it from time to time as if we all walked about with a copy of it in our back pockets for reference. She has absolutely no idea how to do politics. Having explained how I think the Tory rules are supposed to operate how the hell did the party end up with a choice between her and Leadsom? Is it a nanny fixation?
    You say May is not a politician. But she managed to go to the top of the greasy pole!

    She does not have a personal supporters club. Maybe that's why she became PM. And stays there as other groups cancel each other out.
    Like The Patrician in Discworld ?
    I think he had other skills such as being the best assassin of his generation. One of my favourite characters.
    He failed his stealth class because the teacher didn’t think he’d ever turned up...
    The prospect of not having new Pratchetts to read is a cloud on what I (somewhat optimistically arithmetically) still like to think of as my middle years.
This discussion has been closed.