"Anyway, the question I was interested in at the start was whether the percentage of graduates was an independent predictor of voting, even after taking account of age.
The whole reaction to Brexit is an insight to the human psyche. When people feel a lack of control or loss, they lash out at whole swathes of people that are not like them.
We sometimes forget that mass immigration ws?
Global net migration fell by almost 30 000 this year from 2015
The Tories have been waving the 100k target around for years and missing every time. It makes them look stupid, and frankly, mad. As @Stodge points out, if we needed (say) to import 200k doctors, then our immigration system should allow us to do so. We need the immigrants we need, if that makes sense.
Whilst I agree with your latter point it only works if we comply with your former.
So if we have somehow concluded that we "need" an extra n in my view.
Except that some of the strongest Leave areas were places like Copeland, the NE, Welsh Valleys etc where populations are stagnating or falling, housing ditto and school places too. Mean while the areas with highest immigration, houseprices and difficulties getting school places were in London and Home Counties, the heartland of English Remania.
Leave voting correlates better with the age profile of the area, and its relatively lowly economy.
Plenty of Home Counties seats, particularly in Kent and Essex and Berkshire and Hertfordshire voted Leave as did a number of Outer London seats.
You are a very stubborn person and always answer back with a twist. The point Dr.Fox was making was that areas with the highest immigration voted Remain in big numbers.
Kent and Essex and Berkshire and Hertfordshire are not natural places where large number of immigrants live compared, to say, London, Birmingham, Manchester.
Not even that is entirely true, Lincolnshire has had amongst the highest Eastern European migration and had one of the strongest Leave votes.
Rural Scotland has had little net immigration compared to southern England and voted Remain, same with e.g. South Lakeland.
There has been a significant amount of immigration to Kent and Essex especially since 2004 and of course parts of London, Birmingham and Manchester are majority immigrant anyway
Arguing against a caricature of your opponents most extreme argument will get nobody anywhere
Its what some Remain supporters have been doing for over 2 years....and they wonder why so few, if any, are changing their minds....
Very good posts today, Mr Russell.
Since the decisive groups were the old, who have never been as affluent as they are today, and a minority of affluent Eurosceptic obsessives (much overrepresented on here), it’s arrant nonsense.
The poor are being used as a figleaf for the reactionary actions of those groups.
I'll stick with Ashcroft. It was the DE and C2s who had the highest proportion of Leavers (64/36). That's more than the geriatric split (60/40).
The richest 10% of constituencies voted heavily Remain., These were essentially centres of government, the West End, parts of the London Stockbroker Belt, and some university seats.
The remaining 90% voted quite steadily Leave, without varying much by levels of affluence. Some very affluent places voted Leave, and some very poor places voted Remain.
So, was it educational level rather than wealth that determined whether you were a Remainer? Just asking.
A regression analysis was done and it was clear that educational attainment had a high correlation with voting Remain.
"Research carried out by leading polling companies in the wake of the referendum found that educational attainment was strongly linked to whether voters supported EU membership.
According to YouGov, 68% of voters with a university degree wanted to remain in the EU, while 70% of voters with only GCSE qualifications or lower voted to leave. Those with A levels and no degree were evenly split.
These findings largely tally with the results of an Ipsos Mori survey published in September, and with polling conducted by Lord Ashcroft on the day of the referendum.
Of the 30 areas with the fewest graduates in the UK, 28 backed Brexit, according to the BBC. “By contrast, 29 out of the 30 areas with the most graduates voted Remain”, including the City of London, Belfast South, Cambridge, Oxford and Edinburgh, it adds."
HYUFD: "They were the inevitable product of a globalist wealthy elite and multinational corporations ignoring those lower doen the food chain. Automation and austerity added to the mix and it is not just the populist right on the rise, the populist left from Syriza to Melenchon to Corbyn to Five Star to Poddemos to Bernie Sanders are a symptom of the same backlash</"
That may be your convenient analysis but it is poor and simplistic. It is more likely that while there is some element of what you say it, is more a combination of poor education standards and a period of peace and relative prosperity (in historical terms) without precedent in Europe which has made people and governments complacent. That combined with a sudden tsunami of electronic information that can be manipulated massively by malevolent forces (mainly the Russians South Koreans and also others) and there is a huge influence of misleading and often deliberately fake news targeted at the gullible, with a deliberate strategy to undermine traditional leadership and media outlets by suggesting "they are all the same".
I am in no doubt that the referendum was coerced, which is why I don't buy the will-o-the-people crap.</p>
How comforting for you to think that Brexit is happening because people were coerced, rather than because other people value different things, reach different conclusions based on the same information, and have different economic interests to you.
What preposterous nonsense.
What is preposterous Mr D is people that try and make out Brexit is "patriotic". It is anything but, which is why it is passively supported by one Jeremy Corbyn.
What is even more preposterous is the idea that we have gained/will gain anything from it. Politicians and businesses will be playing damage limitation for generations to come. It is nothing short of monumental crass stupidity and the apologists for it need to be called to account
HYUFD: "They were the inevitable product of a globalist wealthy elite and multinational corporations ignoring those lower doen the food chain. Automation and austerity added to the mix and it is not just the populist right on the rise, the populist left from Syriza to Melenchon to Corbyn to Five Star to Poddemos to Bernie Sanders are a symptom of the same backlash</"
That may be your convenient analysis but it is poor and simplistic. It is more likely that while there is some element of what you say it, is more a combination of poor education standards and a period of peace and relative prosperity (in historical terms) without precedent in Europe which has made people and governments complacent. That combined with a sudden tsunami of electronic information that can be manipulated massively by malevolent forces (mainly the Russians South Koreans and also others) and there is a huge influence of misleading and often deliberately fake news targeted at the gullible, with a deliberate strategy to undermine traditional leadership and media outlets by suggesting "they are all the same".
I am in no doubt that the referendum was coerced, which is why I don't buy the will-o-the-people crap.</p>
How comforting for you to think that Brexit is happening because people were coerced, rather than because other people value different things, reach different conclusions based on the same information, and have different economic interests to you.
What preposterous nonsense.
What is preposterous Mr D is people that try and make out Brexit is "patriotic". It is anything but, which is why it is passively supported by one Jeremy Corbyn.
What is even more preposterous is the idea that we have gained/will gain anything from it. Politicians and businesses will be playing damage limitation for generations to come. It is nothing short of monumental crass stupidity and the apologists for it need to be called to account
When the other option is to be subsumed into a federal Europe it's quite an easy argument to make.
Mr. Foremain, it's entirely possible for people to see the same evidence, hear the same arguments, and yet reach differing conclusions. Indeed, that's the basis of democracy.
I'd argue it's not in the interest of the nation to have politicians promise a referendum then renege upon it, and continually squander national vetoes, throwing them away, and half the rebate, with nothing in return and without consulting the electorate.
Far better had we had the Lisbon referendum. But there we are.
"Plenty of Home Counties seats, particularly in Kent and Essex and Berkshire and Hertfordshire voted Leave as did a number of Outer London seats."
Quite a few swivel-eyed Col Blimp types in those areas I guess, more is the pity.
It was lower middle class and working class voters seeing stagnant wages and high rents and unaffordable house prices that were the key to the Leave win
The older demographic that voted for Brexit were by and large the beneficiaries of the transfer of wealth caused by rising property prices.
The median voter who voted for Brexit was 45 to 50.
It was not pensioners who got Leave over 50%, it was lower middle class and working class middle aged voters
Link to justify that stat??
As I recall, the age at which majority-remain turns into majority-leave was around 45-50. Which would put the median age of the leave voter above 50. Further, the median age of the entire electorate is 46, and leave voters are clearly above the median since remains are below.
42 was the age at which Leave voters began to outnumber Remain voters.
"Plenty of Home Counties seats, particularly in Kent and Essex and Berkshire and Hertfordshire voted Leave as did a number of Outer London seats."
Quite a few swivel-eyed Col Blimp types in those areas I guess, more is the pity.
It was lower middle class and working class voters seeing stagnant wages and high rents and unaffordable house prices that were the key to the Leave win
The older demographic that voted for Brexit were by and large the beneficiaries of the transfer of wealth caused by rising property prices.
The median voter who voted for Brexit was 45 to 50.
It was not pensioners who got Leave over 50%, it was lower middle class and working class middle aged voters
Link to justify that stat??
As I recall, the age at which majority-remain turns into majority-leave was around 45-50. Which would put the median age of the leave voter above 50. Further, the median age of the entire electorate is 46, and leave voters are clearly above the median since remains are below.
45 to 54 year olds voted 56% Leave 44% Remain.
35 to 44 year olds voted 55% Remain 45% Leave.
Given the UK voted 52% Leave 48% Remain we can safely say the median voter who won the referendum for Leave was 45 to 54 and of working age
HYUFD: "They were the inevitable product of a globalist wealthy elite and multinational corporations ignoring those lower doen the food chain. Automation and austerity added to the mix and it is not just the populist right on the rise, the populist left from Syriza to Melenchon to Corbyn to Five Star to Poddemos to Bernie Sanders are a symptom of the same backlash</"
That may be your convenient analysis but it is poor and simplistic. It is more likely that while there is some element of what you say it, is more a combination of poor education standards and a period of peace and relative prosperity (in historical terms) without precedent in Europe which has made people and governments complacent. That combined with a sudden tsunami of electronic information that can be manipulated massively by malevolent forces (mainly the Russians South Koreans and also others) and there is a huge influence of misleading and often deliberately fake news targeted at the gullible, with a deliberate strategy to undermine traditional leadership and media outlets by suggesting "they are all the same".
I am in no doubt that the referendum was coerced, which is why I don't buy the will-o-the-people crap.</p>
How comforting for you to think that Brexit is happening because people were coerced, rather than because other people value different things, reach different conclusions based on the same information, and have different economic interests to you.
Not comforting at all. It is frightening that 52% of the British people think it is good to advance the foreign policy agenda of Vladimir Putin. Those are "values" that I find highly questionable
Perhaps the 52% were just a bit more intelligent than you are.
"Anyway, the question I was interested in at the start was whether the percentage of graduates was an independent predictor of voting, even after taking account of age.
HYUFD: "They were the inevitable product of a globalist wealthy elite and multinational corporations ignoring those lower doen the food chain. Automation and austerity added to the mix and it is not just the populist right on the rise, the populist left from Syriza to Melenchon to Corbyn to Five Star to Poddemos to Bernie Sanders are a symptom of the same backlash</"
That may be your convenient analysis but it is poor and simplistic. It is more likely that while there is some element of what you say it, is more a combination of poor education standards and a period of peace and relative prosperity (in historical terms) without precedent in Europe which has made people and governments complacent. That combined with a sudden tsunami of electronic information that can be manipulated massively by malevolent forces (mainly the Russians South Koreans and also others) and there is a huge influence of misleading and often deliberately fake news targeted at the gullible, with a deliberate strategy to undermine traditional leadership and media outlets by suggesting "they are all the same".
I am in no doubt that the referendum was coerced, which is why I don't buy the will-o-the-people crap.</p>
How comforting for you to think that Brexit is happening because people were coerced, rather than because other people value different things, reach different conclusions based on the same information, and have different economic interests to you.
How conveniently credulous of you to think the opposite. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that it was coerced.
"Plenty of Home Counties seats, particularly in Kent and Essex and Berkshire and Hertfordshire voted Leave as did a number of Outer London seats."
Quite a few swivel-eyed Col Blimp types in those areas I guess, more is the pity.
Quite possibly so, but if we look at the areas of Shire SE England that voted Leave, they are ones with a higher than Median age. In other words when looking at the Determinants* of voting behaviour in the Brexit Referendum, the more prosperous a region, the more immigrants and higher house prices are all predictors of Remain, but there areas where the proportion of older people outweighs this for Leave.
HYUFD: "They were the inevitable product of a globalist wealthy elite and multinational corporations ignoring those lower doen the food chain. Automation and austerity added to the mix and it is not just the populist right on the rise, the populist left from Syriza to Melenchon to Corbyn to Five Star to Poddemos to Bernie Sanders are a symptom of the same backlash</"
That may be your convenient analysis but it is poor and simplistic. It is more likely that while there is some element of what you say it, is more a combination of poor education standards and a period of peace and relative prosperity (in historical terms) without precedent in Europe which has made people and governments complacent. That combined with a sudden tsunami of electronic information that can be manipulated massively by malevolent forces (mainly the Russians South Koreans and also others) and there is a huge influence of misleading and often deliberately fake news targeted at the gullible, with a deliberate strategy to undermine traditional leadership and media outlets by suggesting "they are all the same".
I am in no doubt that the referendum was coerced, which is why I don't buy the will-o-the-people crap.</p>
How comforting for you to think that Brexit is happening because people were coerced, rather than because other people value different things, reach different conclusions based on the same information, and have different economic interests to you.
What preposterous nonsense.
What is preposterous Mr D is people that try and make out Brexit is "patriotic". It is anything but, which is why it is passively supported by one Jeremy Corbyn.
What is even more preposterous is the idea that we have gained/will gain anything from it. Politicians and businesses will be playing damage limitation for generations to come. It is nothing short of monumental crass stupidity and the apologists for it need to be called to account
Monumental crass stupidity? With powers of persuasion like this, Remain will clearly triumph in the second referendum.
The whole reaction to Brexit is an insight to the human psyche. When people feel a lack of control or loss, they lash out at whole swathes of people that are not like them.
We sometimes forget that mass immigration is very novel.
Where they're wrong is in thinking that we're going to have less immigration in the future. All that changes is the mix. Where that leads, who knows?
Global net migration fell by almost 30 000 this year from 2015
The Tories have been waving the 100k target around for years and missing every time. It makes them look stupid, and frankly, mad. As @Stodge points out, if we needed (say) to import 200k doctors, then our immigration system should allow us to do so. We need the immigrants we need, if that makes sense.
Whilst I agree with your latter point it only works if we comply with your former.
.
Except that some of the strongest Leave areas were places like Copeland, the NE, Welsh Valleys etc where populations are stagnating or falling, housing ditto and school places too. Mean while the areas with highest immigration, houseprices and difficulties getting school places were in London and Home Counties, the heartland of English Remania.
Leave voting correlates better with the age profile of the area, and its relatively lowly economy.
Plenty of Home Counties seats, particularly in Kent and Essex and Berkshire and Hertfordshire voted Leave as did a number of Outer London seats.
You are a very stubborn person and always answer back with a twist. The point Dr.Fox was making was that areas with the highest immigration voted Remain in big numbers.
Kent and Essex and Berkshire and Hertfordshire are not natural places where large number of immigrants live compared, to say, London, Birmingham, Manchester.
Birmingham voted Leaave, along with plenty of areas of high immigration.
I gave Corbyn the benefit of the doubt on antisemitism. I can’t any more. The Labour leader’s comments about ‘Zionists’ in a 2013 speech were unquestionably antisemitic
The cult will just dismiss this piece as a smear. Based on something being taken out of context. Nothing to see here. Tory scum.
Until I read the article, I had forgotten about the antisemite cartoon incident...that is how many things we have had.
It does build a pattern of behaviour over many years that it should be impossible to deny. But there are thousands who are actively doing so. And those who sit as Labour MPs and do nothing are deeply compromised by their failure to act.
"Plenty of Home Counties seats, particularly in Kent and Essex and Berkshire and Hertfordshire voted Leave as did a number of Outer London seats."
Quite a few swivel-eyed Col Blimp types in those areas I guess, more is the pity.
It was lower middle class and working class voters seeing stagnant wages and high rents and unaffordable house prices that were the key to the Leave win
The older demographic that voted for Brexit were by and large the beneficiaries of the transfer of wealth caused by rising property prices.
The median voter who voted for Brexit was 45 to 50.
It was not pensioners who got Leave over 50%, it was lower middle class and working class middle aged voters
Yes, but the elderly were significant. It is why we will most likely go back into the EU in about 20 years time, though under much less preferable terms that we left. I hope you are young enough to witness it
No we won't, given barely a third back the Euro.
Especially not given it was the arrogant condescension like your post which saw young Common Market voters in the 1970s vote Leave in 2016
Theresa May had the opportunity to manage/reduce 50% of immigration (that from outside the EU) and she did nothing. Anyone who is expecting significantly less immigration post brexit is likely to be as disappointed as the poster on here the other day that thought there would be less bureacracy
EU migration to the UK is already down 87 000 this year
That is most probably because EU citizens used to think this was an outward looking tolerant country where they could bring their families, expertise and often wealth. People with your views have made them think otherwise. Xenophobia is not a philosophy that is an easy export
These being the same EU citizens voting for Lega Nord, Front National, the Swedish Democrats, the AfD, Law and Justice, Fidesz, Golden Dawn and Wilders and the Austrian Freedom Party in significant numbers? The same EU citizens from the likes of Germany which imposed restrictive transition controls on Eastern European migration post their accession to the EU for 7 years unlike Blair's UK?
They are not "significant numbers". We are the only country that has been tempted by this retrograde and self-harming path
The Freedom Party is part of the Austrian government and Lega Nord part of the Italian government and as I said most other EU nations imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004
HYUFD: "They were the inevitable product of a globalist wealthy elite and multinational corporations ignoring those lower doen the food chain. Automation and austerity added to the mix and it is not just the populist right on the rise, the populist left from Syriza to Melenchon to Corbyn to Five Star to Poddemos to Bernie Sanders are a symptom of the same backlash</"
That may be your convenient analysis but it is poor and simplistic. It is more likely that while there is some element of what you say it, is more a combination of poor education standards and a period of peace and relative prosperity (in historical terms) without precedent in Europe which has made people and governments complacent. That combined with a sudden tsunami of electronic information that can be manipulated massively by malevolent forces (mainly the Russians South Koreans and also others) and there is a huge influence of misleading and often deliberately fake news targeted at the gullible, with a deliberate strategy to undermine traditional leadership and media outlets by suggesting "they are all the same".
I am in no doubt that the referendum was coerced, which is why I don't buy the will-o-the-people crap.</p>
No it is more evidence of arrogant upper middle class voters like you who will ensure there will be more of the populist surge to come (while even the middle classes will be affected by automation)
"Anyway, the question I was interested in at the start was whether the percentage of graduates was an independent predictor of voting, even after taking account of age.
Mass insufficiently controlled immigration has driven down wages for the lower skilled due to increased supply of workers but no extra supply of low skilled jobs, increased rents and the cost of buying a home due to extra demand for housing and increased pressure on public services. Add to security concerns and concerns over migrants who do not sufficiently respect the culture of the home nation that has led to Brexit, Trump and the rose of populist parties like Lega Nord, Front National, the Swedish Democrats and One Nation
The "low skilled jobs" clearly have been created as well as jobs in other sectors because the employment numbers continue to show more people in work therefore the economic argument suggests the current demand for workers is being met by the current supply of workers.
I don't argue with the rest of your contribution but these are the economic non-quantifiable impacts. Simply replacing one source of cheap labour (the EU) with another (Sub-Saharan Africa) doesn't make any difference. In the 1950s and 60s we had to accept Eastern Europe, as a traditional source for UK labour, was closed so we looked to the Caribbean for workers.
If the availability of workers is stifled too much there will be capacity problems and the kind of wage inflation which bedevilled Lawson in the late 80s.
We can have economic growth with fewer workers but that requires investment in technology and changes to business processes. At the moment, it's easier to hire another body than think through the difficult stuff.
Wages especially at the lower end have been stagnant and insufficient immigration controls have added to that by increasing supply and reducing demand for native born workers with lack of growth in low skilled jobs to compensate
The problem for both brexiteers and remainers is that TM is following the pramatic course leading to BINO and of course brexiteers will be furious but remainers too will see their dream of stopping brexit disappear.
The last 24 hours convinces me the cabinet including the brexiteers in it know the consequences of walking away are not acceptable, hence Raab's speech yesterday which continually returned to stating we will achieve a deal, and in my opinion Hammond was allowed to paint a negative picture, to make the hard brexit impossible both politically and economically.
Maybe TM will prove over the next few months that her grown up and considered approach to the biggest problem faced by a PM since the last war will see us into a position where the electorate will just say thank goodness for that and let's get on with our lives.
Sure there will be blood spilled but I think labour have much deeper long term problems
Comments
Rural Scotland has had little net immigration compared to southern England and voted Remain, same with e.g. South Lakeland.
There has been a significant amount of immigration to Kent and Essex especially since 2004 and of course parts of London, Birmingham and Manchester are majority immigrant anyway
"Research carried out by leading polling companies in the wake of the referendum found that educational attainment was strongly linked to whether voters supported EU membership.
According to YouGov, 68% of voters with a university degree wanted to remain in the EU, while 70% of voters with only GCSE qualifications or lower voted to leave. Those with A levels and no degree were evenly split.
These findings largely tally with the results of an Ipsos Mori survey published in September, and with polling conducted by Lord Ashcroft on the day of the referendum.
Of the 30 areas with the fewest graduates in the UK, 28 backed Brexit, according to the BBC. “By contrast, 29 out of the 30 areas with the most graduates voted Remain”, including the City of London, Belfast South, Cambridge, Oxford and Edinburgh, it adds."
http://www.theweek.co.uk/89378/fact-check-did-uk-s-better-educated-vote-remain
What is even more preposterous is the idea that we have gained/will gain anything from it. Politicians and businesses will be playing damage limitation for generations to come. It is nothing short of monumental crass stupidity and the apologists for it need to be called to account
Mr. Foremain, it's entirely possible for people to see the same evidence, hear the same arguments, and yet reach differing conclusions. Indeed, that's the basis of democracy.
I'd argue it's not in the interest of the nation to have politicians promise a referendum then renege upon it, and continually squander national vetoes, throwing them away, and half the rebate, with nothing in return and without consulting the electorate.
Far better had we had the Lisbon referendum. But there we are.
35 to 44 year olds voted 55% Remain 45% Leave.
Given the UK voted 52% Leave 48% Remain we can safely say the median voter who won the referendum for Leave was 45 to 54 and of working age
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum
It's weird isn't it? We send all our taxes to London and that is where all the money is. It's almost as if there was a correlation of some kind.
The JRF did an interesting analysis on this:
https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/brexit-vote-explained-poverty-low-skills-and-lack-opportunities
*Determinants in a logistic regression sense
The time for words is over.
Especially not given it was the arrogant condescension like your post which saw young Common Market voters in the 1970s vote Leave in 2016
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1032991701563006976
The last 24 hours convinces me the cabinet including the brexiteers in it know the consequences of walking away are not acceptable, hence Raab's speech yesterday which continually returned to stating we will achieve a deal, and in my opinion Hammond was allowed to paint a negative picture, to make the hard brexit impossible both politically and economically.
Maybe TM will prove over the next few months that her grown up and considered approach to the biggest problem faced by a PM since the last war will see us into a position where the electorate will just say thank goodness for that and let's get on with our lives.
Sure there will be blood spilled but I think labour have much deeper long term problems