politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile Corbyn is back as “next PM” favourite on the Betfair
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile Corbyn is back as “next PM” favourite on the Betfair exchange
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Why would Canada treat the UK the same as the EU when our economy is different and they may not get the same benefits of that deal than before? Why would the US? Indeed, the US don't like the terms and want to force the UK to worse terms than when we were in the EU; if our supposed "special relationship" means a worse deal and challenges at the WTO what can we expect from others?
Of course, May's successor will probably come from the Remain wing, which might explain his reticence.
However May could hold them both off if she pulls off a Deal next year in which case she might survive beyond 2019.
I have taken 100/1 on Betfair. 80/1 at Skybet.
I await Roger's verdict.
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1032898977245683712
As long as we have blue passports and can thumb our nose at Johnny Foreigner then everything will be as it should be even if there is an economic disaster. At least any hardship will be self inflicted and that makes it OK because it is not just self-harm, it is British self-harm, the finest kind in the world....
The real moment of truth will come when No Deal is taken off the table by the force of reality. Will people who currently favour it think "I suppose Chequers isn't so bad after all" or will they think "We'd be better off staying in the EU than any of this".
Hammond would be better than Gove and maybe Hunt, that is about it
In terms of FTAs, there's two ways of looking at it. The EU has economic heft and is thus an attractive counterparty. On the other hand, witness CETA - the Italians don't like the food protection sections and are threatening to veto it. There are 28 (soon to be 27) sets of national interests and country-based lobbies to satisfy, which is why EU FTAs take so freaking long to negotiate.
A bilateral trade deal should be easier to negotiate, but the appetite for bilateral deals is low, because the benefit from FTAs is surprisingly modest.
We have no FTA with the US (just the GATT accords) and run a modest (£5bn) trade surplus. The EU has no FTA with the US and the proposed vehicle, TTIP, is deader than disco.
We have lodged our proposed WTO schedule with that organisation; they will take effect in three months if there are no objections. I don't know if any country has actually lodged a formal objection, though some country trade bodies have certainly made noises in that direction.
Its sad but true, none of this is going to be a blind bit of difference in regards to Jezza. Outside of the Mail and Sun who are pushing this, the rest of the media seem tired / uninterested in really picking it up, Jezza supporters are true believers and the rest the country appear to not to worry too much about it, rather thinking May and Corbyn are both just a bit crap.
If any other politician had made been found to make a similar statement about another minority group they would be finished, immediately.
1) earlier this week pb'ers were asked to applaud the excellent state of the economy under Hammond
2) reality will converge on Hammond's Brexit cautions, making him seem a peerless sage
3) after Brexit, MPs will be looking for a quiet life and safe pair of hands
4) you can get 66/1 from Betfred
Hammond has kept the economy moving despite the best efforts of brexiteers and neobrexiteers like yourself to wreck it. For that, he deserves great credit.
Yes, his sensible, careful approach conflicts with their determination to push through an extreme version of their wild-eyed scheme whatever the human and economic cost.
So apparently the age group ~61-80 needs to die off. The few left in the 80-100 age group may be more pro-EU than my generation. Does anyone know?
Shared upthread.
And why should he quit?
Most people either don't know about the antisemitism scandals or don't care
Most people vote on personal self-interest not on high-brow morality, especially when the alternative choice for government is having its own anti-Islam scandal (which most people don't care about...)
Literally anything could happen politically in the next 12 months, with the prospect of a Labour government with or without a fresh general election very real
So he will stay put.
You are exactly the same as Tories in 2015 who argued Liz Kendall was the only way to save Labour at the next general election.
You are a left liberal Remainer so you simply have picked the least Brexity option available.
Most left liberal Remainers would still not vote for a Hammond led Tories just as most Tories would not have voted for a Kendall led Labour Party. The Greens would have benefited most from a Kendall led Labour just as UKIP would benefit most from a Hammond led Tories.
There is now no point in voting.
i) I doubt May will try to soldier on to 2022 - I reckon 2019 will be her last Conference, announcing standing down then, giving her successor 2 years to bed in.
ii) I doubt Boris will get past the MPs to make it on to the final list.
iii) Ditto squared for JRM the Dutton de nos rives.....
Offensive consolidation?
The UK is a service economy par excellence which is probably the reason that Liam Fox as trade minister doesn't keep me awake at night.
As a public service, here's just one document from the TPP. Read it if you're tired of living and seek the sweet peace of oblivion:
https://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/not-yet-in-force/tpp-11/official-documents/Documents/ch2-national-treatment-and-market-access-for-goods.pdf
B>A
o>n
b>a
a>z
j>i
o>n
b>a
That's some coincidence.
Nothing to learn there.
Perhaps if they weren't called 'Liberals' some might make the connection....
http://uk.businessinsider.com/beto-orourke-is-quickly-becoming-a-national-figure-for-democrats-2018-8?r=US&IR=T
66/1 is about right.
That particular model won’t work everywhere, but it’s the sort of outside-the-box thinking we should be looking to emulate elsewhere, especially in countries with under-developed services and legal industries but that have goods or commodities that we would find useful.
The Greens are too far left for me, Corbyn's Labour is not something I want to be associated with nor is your bunch any better with their quotient of rabid nationalists. UKIP I regard as little more than disorganised Nazis. Most of the smaller right-wing parties I regard as one step from being the KKK
The Lib Dems....
I want a return to the days when the Tories were the sensible economic safe hands and Labour offered half sensible social reforms.
That was obviously written by somebody pretending not to know who Plato the poster was.
One question is whether the historic pattern of people becoming more Conservative with age continues, and it may be different for Generation Rent and Generation Student Debt. I also think that it may well be not be as true for social and cultural issues as for economic ones.
The circumstances under which Corbyn becomes PM without an election are very far fetched, involving the DUP or a number of Tory MPs crossing the floor to support JC following a VoNC in the government.
If the PM resigns for any reason she’ll be replaced by a Conservative.
Agree with all three of your points. I guess lay the favourite still holds for this market.
I believe Iron ore is zero rated, and the NZ Lamb Tarriff free quota underused as it is btw.
You are a Left Liberal Remainer for Hammond in a similar way to Tories for Kendall. In terms of actual voting intention head to heads Boris still is the only Tory candidate to have surpassed May in terms of the Tory performance against Corbyn Labour (the ICM poll was just a more likely to win under question).
In as far as there could well be a swing against overt ideology, I tend to agree. However, that's not the same as individual dullness.
I'd also mention his age. Hammond is 62 now and would be 66 at the next GE, if in 2022. While that's not a bar - he's several years younger than Corbyn - nor is it a factor that's on his side. As it is, he's the oldest Chancellor since Macmillan and, if he's still there shortly into next year, would become the oldest since 1940.
We can look at the Single Market (in goods) as an almost Platonic ideal of a Free Trade Area. It's geographically compact, there are no NTBs and so forth. Look at the performance of the economies in the Single Market since its foundation. They vary widely, which indicates that free trade isn't the sine qua non of economic success.
Try to be empathetic, see the best in people rather than assume base motives. Think about the Room 101 chapter in 1984. Winston loves Julia, she is the one chink of light in his life, but when trapped with his worst fears, he behaves as he thought he never could. No one wants to betray a loved one, but can we all say we wouldn't crack in a nightmarish situation? If their lives were free from the rats in the cage - extreme money worries, job stability, access to hospital places, reliance on the state and so on, people may not have been attracted to a campaign considered so distasteful
But, at a basic level, British Social Attitudes have shown an inexorable rise in Euroscepticism over the course of the last 25 years.
I have a hunch that the winning candidate does not feature on the chart.
(can't be arsed doing Theuniondivvie)
* What can she do to top it this year?