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  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    FF43 said:

    As I mentioned on the previous thread, this poll is rather odd in not asking respondents about their own views of the potential candidates; instead it asks their views of other voters' views. That makes it even harder to interpret than hypothetical polls usually are.

    Perhaps the main lesson we should draw is not about individuals, but about the need for the Conservative Party to (dare I say it) 'modernise'. Those polled seem to think the party needs a refresh if it is to appeal more widely. They would be right to think that.

    With the Conservatives getting more support from the dead than the living, reincarnation might be more effective than modernisation

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1032211668355428352
    Dead donors are ideal. They don't cause any trouble.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    I would have thought the figure included Scotland. Income taxes are still collected at a national level, for example.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,763
    Clearly partisan but as a former federal prosecutor he knows what's going on legally with the Cohen plea. Ultimately though it comes down to whether a portion of Republican senators will cut Trump adrift.

    https://twitter.com/renato_mariotti/status/1032306317237669889
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    PClipp said:

    There are so many things that the Lib Dems could boast about, Mr Navabi, but the Tory publicity machine always rushes in and grabs all the credit, even though you Tories were bitterly opposed to the same Lib Dem policies when we shared a government. Tories just have no principles, do they?

    I look forward to the LibDems enthusiastically embracing another coalition with the Tories, if that's how the numbers pan out, so that you can continue your good work.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Hadrian's wall won't rebuild itself, you know.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Hadrian's wall won't rebuild itself, you know.
    Hadrian's Wall isn't in Scotland.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Surely that's for the HMNB Clyde?
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Hadrian's wall won't rebuild itself, you know.
    Hadrian's Wall isn't in Scotland.
    Frankly they can have that bit back. A sliver of Cumbria and a chunk of Northumbria. Whatevs. (I am Cumbrian)
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Hadrian's wall won't rebuild itself, you know.
    Hadrian's Wall isn't in Scotland.
    Frankly they can have that bit back. A sliver of Cumbria and a chunk of Northumbria. Whatevs. (I am Cumbrian)
    I think it would be all of Northumberland, wouldn't it? Runs to Newcastle.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Our saving rate is stupidly low. It's easy to have an economy ticking along if people aren't saving for a rainy day.


    Nor saving sufficient for their retirement and care in old age.
    If people have no savings, no pensions and don't own houses, that then screws the idea of them paying for their care in old age should they need it.

    What do we do then?
    Pay taxes to keep them in the style they have been accustomed to of course.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Surely that's for the HMNB Clyde?
    Is it not just our pro rata share of UK defence spending? I don't think that there is a direct correlation to the money spent in Scotland although we probably get our share.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    edited August 2018
    MikeL said:

    2017/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    The Scottish deficit is the GERS estimate between the taxes raised in Scotland and the money spent. The money spent is in Hammond's control in large part and he has a fair amount of influence over the taxes paid too. The control of the Scottish government is at the margins, so I get to pay more in tax than you would on the same income, for example.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,047
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Our saving rate is stupidly low. It's easy to have an economy ticking along if people aren't saving for a rainy day.


    Nor saving sufficient for their retirement and care in old age.
    If people have no savings, no pensions and don't own houses, that then screws the idea of them paying for their care in old age should they need it.

    What do we do then?
    We increase taxes on the young, and they then flee the country for lower tax places. It's a pattern that has played out across the American Midwest, and is one of the true causes of Trump.

    There's this horrible cycle of demographics f*cking City budgets, which lead to education being cut and taxes raised (to pay for pensions and the old), and which leads to businesses going and middle class flight.

    Which means there is a smaller tax base, and the only people who aren't going anywhere are the old - which you need to pay for - and the incompetent - who aren't paying much in the way of taxes.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Hadrian's wall won't rebuild itself, you know.
    Hadrian's Wall isn't in Scotland.
    Frankly they can have that bit back. A sliver of Cumbria and a chunk of Northumbria. Whatevs. (I am Cumbrian)
    I think it would be all of Northumberland, wouldn't it? Runs to Newcastle.
    A few thousand sheep and a million acres of bracken.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Hadrian's wall won't rebuild itself, you know.
    Hadrian's Wall isn't in Scotland.
    Frankly they can have that bit back. A sliver of Cumbria and a chunk of Northumbria. Whatevs. (I am Cumbrian)
    I think it would be all of Northumberland, wouldn't it? Runs to Newcastle.
    A few thousand sheep and a million acres of bracken.
    You're not really selling it. Bracken is not something we have a shortage of. And the sheep are only of interest to Aberdonians in the main.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/22/conservative-party-receives-money-dead-living-members/

    The Conservative Party received more money from the dead than from the Tory grassroots rank and file last year as income from membership fees nearly halved.

    The Tories generated £1.5million in membership fees in 2016 but that figure dropped 43 per cent to £835,000 in 2017, according to official statistics.

    Meanwhile, the Tories were given £1.7million in 2017 in the form of bequests, compared to £301,000 in 2016.

    And people thought Tory support dying off was a bad thing - it's a real money maker apparently.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,083
    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Hadrian's wall won't rebuild itself, you know.
    Hadrian's Wall isn't in Scotland.
    Frankly they can have that bit back. A sliver of Cumbria and a chunk of Northumbria. Whatevs. (I am Cumbrian)
    I think it would be all of Northumberland, wouldn't it? Runs to Newcastle.
    A few thousand sheep and a million acres of bracken.
    I live north of Hadrian’s Wall... :neutral:
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited August 2018
    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think it would be all of Northumberland, wouldn't it? Runs to Newcastle.

    A few thousand sheep and a million acres of bracken.
    You're not really selling it. Bracken is not something we have a shortage of. And the sheep are only of interest to Aberdonians in the main.
    We could jointly encourage them to secede from the Union, enriching both Scotland and rUK. It's basically a less affluent, windier version of Royston Vasey.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    HYUFD said:
    Curious to see what he might say when(if) he is elected. Safe state or not, presumably he will be more cautious prior to being confirmed in post.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    As I mentioned on the previous thread, this poll is rather odd in not asking respondents about their own views of the potential candidates; instead it asks their views of other voters' views. That makes it even harder to interpret than hypothetical polls usually are.

    Perhaps the main lesson we should draw is not about individuals, but about the need for the Conservative Party to (dare I say it) 'modernise'. Those polled seem to think the party needs a refresh if it is to appeal more widely. They would be right to think that.

    They did effing well modernise, what with hugging hoodies and huskies and all that.

    And then kaPOW! We somehow got ourselves back into the 18th century. The Party and large part of the country also.
    It is staggering. One of the main parties harking back to the unambiguous failures of mid-twentieth century socialism, the other apparently hungering after the years in the wilderness which it finally manged to crawl out of in 2005, the third party invisible and ashamed of its successes in government after decades of insignificance, the Scots in truculent victim-syndrome, and all this after things were actually going rather well for once.
    Do you see a light at the end of the tunnel at least?!
    Quite probably we are not yet in the tunnel.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Foxy said:

    I think 2016 was the big year for new LD members. To build further on that under dozy Vince is not bad at all.
    Is Goodwin saying that adding 20,000 was not a good performance? His tweet seems illogical.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Hadrian's wall won't rebuild itself, you know.
    Hadrian's Wall isn't in Scotland.
    Frankly they can have that bit back. A sliver of Cumbria and a chunk of Northumbria. Whatevs. (I am Cumbrian)
    I think it would be all of Northumberland, wouldn't it? Runs to Newcastle.
    A few thousand sheep and a million acres of bracken.
    I live north of Hadrian’s Wall... :neutral:
    My most profound sympathies. Could you not just hitch a ride on a cart and escape to the lights of Newcastle?
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,476
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Our saving rate is stupidly low. It's easy to have an economy ticking along if people aren't saving for a rainy day.


    Nor saving sufficient for their retirement and care in old age.
    If people have no savings, no pensions and don't own houses, that then screws the idea of them paying for their care in old age should they need it.

    What do we do then?
    We increase taxes on the young, and they then flee the country for lower tax places. It's a pattern that has played out across the American Midwest, and is one of the true causes of Trump.

    There's this horrible cycle of demographics f*cking City budgets, which lead to education being cut and taxes raised (to pay for pensions and the old), and which leads to businesses going and middle class flight.

    Which means there is a smaller tax base, and the only people who aren't going anywhere are the old - which you need to pay for - and the incompetent - who aren't paying much in the way of taxes.
    And we’re heading right down that road by spunking all the money on social care, the NHS and pensions which, you guessed it, almost all goes on the elderly paid for by the younger working taxpayer.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    I didn't think the point was necessarily that the LDs are doing badly, I thought it was that if a Brexit backlash is a significant thing fewer people would be joining Labour by comparison since their position on it is a lot less clear. So people may be backlashing against Brexit, but not to the point of prioritising over other issues, which they think Labour are better for.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057
    Anorak said:
    This is why the human rights situation in Syria is going to get worse, not better. Assad his winning - just - only with massive help from Iran, Russia and others - and those countries (especially Iran) have been hurt.

    When they withdraw, Assad doesn't have the troops to maintain peace. Therefore expect rather draconian measures against any sign of dissent amongst the population - a process that has allegedly already started in areas 'liberated' from the rebels of all stripes.

    Expect the prisons to increase in size and scope - at least before the inmates are moved on ...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    Anazina said:

    Foxy said:

    I think 2016 was the big year for new LD members. To build further on that under dozy Vince is not bad at all.
    Is Goodwin saying that adding 20,000 was not a good performance? His tweet seems illogical.
    I think his point is that this is not millions of angry remainers picking up their pitchforks and sandals and going to war. But I tend to agree. For a smallish party like the Lib dems an increase of 20,000 whilst being led by a zombie is a pretty good return.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325
    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    I didn't think the point was necessarily that the LDs are doing badly, I thought it was that if a Brexit backlash is a significant thing fewer people would be joining Labour by comparison since their position on it is a lot less clear. So people may be backlashing against Brexit, but not to the point of prioritising over other issues, which they think Labour are better for.
    It's the younger generation searching out ways to fight back against the odds being stacked against them.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Hadrian's wall won't rebuild itself, you know.
    Hadrian's Wall isn't in Scotland.
    Frankly they can have that bit back. A sliver of Cumbria and a chunk of Northumbria. Whatevs. (I am Cumbrian)
    I think it would be all of Northumberland, wouldn't it? Runs to Newcastle.
    A few thousand sheep and a million acres of bracken.
    I live north of Hadrian’s Wall... :neutral:
    My most profound sympathies. Could you not just hitch a ride on a cart and escape to the lights of Newcastle?
    I'd argue with some strength that the Northumberland coastline is the best in England - better than Devon or Cornwall say. It's superb.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356

    Anorak said:
    This is why the human rights situation in Syria is going to get worse, not better. Assad his winning - just - only with massive help from Iran, Russia and others - and those countries (especially Iran) have been hurt.

    When they withdraw, Assad doesn't have the troops to maintain peace. Therefore expect rather draconian measures against any sign of dissent amongst the population - a process that has allegedly already started in areas 'liberated' from the rebels of all stripes.

    Expect the prisons to increase in size and scope - at least before the inmates are moved on ...
    Not sure about that. Millions of people who might have opposed him are no longer in the country. More problematically they won't be going home any time soon.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    This is not the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    This is not the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit
    The only deduction that can safely be drawn is that the Lib Dems have not persuaded the public in large numbers of their continuing vital relevance. That’s hardly new news.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    edited August 2018

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Hadrian's wall won't rebuild itself, you know.
    Hadrian's Wall isn't in Scotland.
    Frankly they can have that bit back. A sliver of Cumbria and a chunk of Northumbria. Whatevs. (I am Cumbrian)
    I think it would be all of Northumberland, wouldn't it? Runs to Newcastle.
    A few thousand sheep and a million acres of bracken.
    I live north of Hadrian’s Wall... :neutral:
    My most profound sympathies. Could you not just hitch a ride on a cart and escape to the lights of Newcastle?
    I'd argue with some strength that the Northumberland coastline is the best in England - better than Devon or Cornwall say. It's superb.
    Holy Isle is stunning.
    https://www.lindisfarne.org.uk/
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Anorak said:
    That's appalling, even for Trump.

    It's DISCREET dammit.

    Not clear. A 1 night stand would be Discrete
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    It doesn’t take make alternate data points to show that his theory is full of holes.

    https://twitter.com/georgetrefgarne/status/1031533231420661760?s=21
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
    See my previous post. The man is so obsessed with blaming Remainers for the country’s ills that he has lost all semblance of common sense.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057
    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:
    This is why the human rights situation in Syria is going to get worse, not better. Assad his winning - just - only with massive help from Iran, Russia and others - and those countries (especially Iran) have been hurt.

    When they withdraw, Assad doesn't have the troops to maintain peace. Therefore expect rather draconian measures against any sign of dissent amongst the population - a process that has allegedly already started in areas 'liberated' from the rebels of all stripes.

    Expect the prisons to increase in size and scope - at least before the inmates are moved on ...
    Not sure about that. Millions of people who might have opposed him are no longer in the country. More problematically they won't be going home any time soon.
    There is that, but that's not a good thing.

    But Assad will be looking for any sign of dissent amongst those who remain. An example of what happens in that sort of situation was seen in Russia in the 1930s (and indeed, at other times). People in areas that were not solidly for Assad in the civil war will be particularly under suspicion. And it's not as though his regime doesn't have a track record for such things.

    https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/12/16/syria-stories-behind-photos-killed-detainees
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    GERS is a measure of taxation and spending in or on Scotland, not by Scotland.

    The UK figures include Scotland, but many are figures Hammond can control.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
    See my previous post. The man is so obsessed with blaming Remainers for the country’s ills that he has lost all semblance of common sense.
    Another one of your more self aware posts......

    He just regularly brings data to the Remainers Pity Party.

    I wonder why some of them don't like him?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356

    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:
    This is why the human rights situation in Syria is going to get worse, not better. Assad his winning - just - only with massive help from Iran, Russia and others - and those countries (especially Iran) have been hurt.

    When they withdraw, Assad doesn't have the troops to maintain peace. Therefore expect rather draconian measures against any sign of dissent amongst the population - a process that has allegedly already started in areas 'liberated' from the rebels of all stripes.

    Expect the prisons to increase in size and scope - at least before the inmates are moved on ...
    Not sure about that. Millions of people who might have opposed him are no longer in the country. More problematically they won't be going home any time soon.
    There is that, but that's not a good thing.

    But Assad will be looking for any sign of dissent amongst those who remain. An example of what happens in that sort of situation was seen in Russia in the 1930s (and indeed, at other times). People in areas that were not solidly for Assad in the civil war will be particularly under suspicion. And it's not as though his regime doesn't have a track record for such things.

    https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/12/16/syria-stories-behind-photos-killed-detainees
    He's a vicious, murderous thug that has no qualms about using chemical weapons on his own people. You will get no argument from me on that.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
    I think the point is that if, say, one were intent on reversing the referendum result, joining the Lib Dems is hardly going to put you at the schwerpunkt of the movement.

    Any half-way smart Remainer is going to join one of the main parties.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
    See my previous post. The man is so obsessed with blaming Remainers for the country’s ills that he has lost all semblance of common sense.
    Another one of your more self aware posts......

    He just regularly brings data to the Remainers Pity Party.

    I wonder why some of them don't like him?
    He regularly abuses data and makes basic factual errors. No wonder Leavers fawn over his utterances.
  • Options
    John_M said:

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
    I think the point is that if, say, one were intent on reversing the referendum result, joining the Lib Dems is hardly going to put you at the schwerpunkt of the movement.

    Any half-way smart Remainer is going to join one of the main parties.
    Doesn't look like there's a massive surge of membership in any party caused by that.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    RoyalBlue said:

    Comrade Corbyn doesn't want new sanctions on Russia: https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1032263920550137858

    Quelle surprise.

    "Jeremy Corbyn has refused to endorse calls for the UK to follow the United States and impose tougher sanctions on Russia, describing it as a "huge player on the world stage"."

    Well, there's a free pass for Putin - for anything.

    Jeremy Corbyn. Unfit to be PM.
    He must not get into 10 Downing Street. Brexit will be a cakewalk compared to leaving NATO and the end of our defence and intelligence relationship with the US.
    It is not Labour policy to leave NATO or end our defence and intelligence relationship with the US. Is this the pb equivalent of push polling? Ascribe an absurd policy to your opponents and ask who will support it? Labour spent above the 2% guideline and it is the Conservatives who have decimated our armed forces.
    I suspect it would be the US stopping its intelligence relationship with the UK if Corbyn were PM, whatever the UK might want.
  • Options

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
    See my previous post. The man is so obsessed with blaming Remainers for the country’s ills that he has lost all semblance of common sense.
    Another one of your more self aware posts......

    He just regularly brings data to the Remainers Pity Party.

    I wonder why some of them don't like him?
    He regularly abuses data and makes basic factual errors. No wonder Leavers fawn over his utterances.
    So is a mere 20k change in membership (A) the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit, (B) being abused, or (C) factually incorrect?
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:
    This is why the human rights situation in Syria is going to get worse, not better. Assad his winning - just - only with massive help from Iran, Russia and others - and those countries (especially Iran) have been hurt.

    When they withdraw, Assad doesn't have the troops to maintain peace. Therefore expect rather draconian measures against any sign of dissent amongst the population - a process that has allegedly already started in areas 'liberated' from the rebels of all stripes.

    Expect the prisons to increase in size and scope - at least before the inmates are moved on ...
    Not sure about that. Millions of people who might have opposed him are no longer in the country. More problematically they won't be going home any time soon.
    There is that, but that's not a good thing.

    But Assad will be looking for any sign of dissent amongst those who remain. An example of what happens in that sort of situation was seen in Russia in the 1930s (and indeed, at other times). People in areas that were not solidly for Assad in the civil war will be particularly under suspicion. And it's not as though his regime doesn't have a track record for such things.

    https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/12/16/syria-stories-behind-photos-killed-detainees
    He's a vicious, murderous thug that has no qualms about using chemical weapons on his own people. You will get no argument from me on that.
    Would it be better if he used chemical weapons against foreigners?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
    See my previous post. The man is so obsessed with blaming Remainers for the country’s ills that he has lost all semblance of common sense.
    Another one of your more self aware posts......

    He just regularly brings data to the Remainers Pity Party.

    I wonder why some of them don't like him?
    He regularly abuses data and makes basic factual errors. No wonder Leavers fawn over his utterances.
    So is a mere 20k change in membership (A) the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit, (B) being abused, or (C) factually incorrect?
    Try reading, little man.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Our saving rate is stupidly low. It's easy to have an economy ticking along if people aren't saving for a rainy day.


    Nor saving sufficient for their retirement and care in old age.
    If people have no savings, no pensions and don't own houses, that then screws the idea of them paying for their care in old age should they need it.

    What do we do then?
    We increase taxes on the young, and they then flee the country for lower tax places. It's a pattern that has played out across the American Midwest, and is one of the true causes of Trump.

    There's this horrible cycle of demographics f*cking City budgets, which lead to education being cut and taxes raised (to pay for pensions and the old), and which leads to businesses going and middle class flight.

    Which means there is a smaller tax base, and the only people who aren't going anywhere are the old - which you need to pay for - and the incompetent - who aren't paying much in the way of taxes.
    And we’re heading right down that road by spunking all the money on social care, the NHS and pensions which, you guessed it, almost all goes on the elderly paid for by the younger working taxpayer.
    Spunking all the money? We are 6th out of the G7 in terms of health and social care spending as a % of GDP, and almost the same as the average for the EU-15. Our state pensions are also the lowest in the OECD when viewed as a % of earnings they replace.

    That doesn’t sound very generous to me. Which country should we imitate?
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
    See my previous post. The man is so obsessed with blaming Remainers for the country’s ills that he has lost all semblance of common sense.
    Another one of your more self aware posts......

    He just regularly brings data to the Remainers Pity Party.

    I wonder why some of them don't like him?
    He regularly abuses data and makes basic factual errors. No wonder Leavers fawn over his utterances.
    So is a mere 20k change in membership (A) the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit, (B) being abused, or (C) factually incorrect?
    Try reading, little man.
    Not a good look, Alastair. You’re better than this.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
    See my previous post. The man is so obsessed with blaming Remainers for the country’s ills that he has lost all semblance of common sense.
    Another one of your more self aware posts......

    He just regularly brings data to the Remainers Pity Party.

    I wonder why some of them don't like him?
    He regularly abuses data and makes basic factual errors. No wonder Leavers fawn over his utterances.
    So is a mere 20k change in membership (A) the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit, (B) being abused, or (C) factually incorrect?
    (D) Actually a pretty good effort for a party who have been almost completely invisible since last year’s election.

    I’m guessing they’re probably going back to their roots in local organisation, running street stalls in areas where they have an MP or did up until 2015.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:
    This is why the human rights situation in Syria is going to get worse, not better. Assad his winning - just - only with massive help from Iran, Russia and others - and those countries (especially Iran) have been hurt.

    When they withdraw, Assad doesn't have the troops to maintain peace. Therefore expect rather draconian measures against any sign of dissent amongst the population - a process that has allegedly already started in areas 'liberated' from the rebels of all stripes.

    Expect the prisons to increase in size and scope - at least before the inmates are moved on ...
    Not sure about that. Millions of people who might have opposed him are no longer in the country. More problematically they won't be going home any time soon.
    There is that, but that's not a good thing.

    But Assad will be looking for any sign of dissent amongst those who remain. An example of what happens in that sort of situation was seen in Russia in the 1930s (and indeed, at other times). People in areas that were not solidly for Assad in the civil war will be particularly under suspicion. And it's not as though his regime doesn't have a track record for such things.

    https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/12/16/syria-stories-behind-photos-killed-detainees
    He's a vicious, murderous thug that has no qualms about using chemical weapons on his own people. You will get no argument from me on that.
    Would it be better if he used chemical weapons against foreigners?
    Marginally, yes. These are his own people and he claims to want to lead them. Still completely wrong of course but I think that its an aggravation.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796
    I'm slightly betting now against a Trump survival.

    They're ganging up on him, but they're doing so on the basis of a spread of killer-torpedoes for anyone else.

    I (rather mildly) disliked Trump when he came to office. In office he has done sufficiently well that i rather think that dislike was misplaced. However, new Trumpisms emerge which make me dislike him even more.

    There are very few people in the world who if I met then I'd consider as substantial punch rather than a handshake appropriate - Brown obviously, goes without saying, (I'll barter with the devil for a second punch too), and that's it. Until recently Ed Balls would have been my candidate for most-punchable. I've seen his BBC shows though, and I suspect that it's a journey for us all. I rather want to see what he says now politically.
    (Messed up by Yvette a bit clearly)

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    This is not the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit
    The only deduction that can safely be drawn is that the Lib Dems have not persuaded the public in large numbers of their continuing vital relevance. That’s hardly new news.
    Between elections they usually fell from the spotlight and typically polled in the 13-15% region, even prior to GEs when their vote topped 20%. The current 9-10% is therefore poor, but not dramatically so. The worrying thing for the LibDems is that their core vote has all but disappeared in contests where they don't (or aren't able to) make any effort.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    I did warn of something like this the other day. Corbyn doesn’t like scrutiny and does all he can to avoid it. He is more Roi Soleil than a sans culotte, all appearances to the contrary notwithstanding.
    Anazina said:

    TOPPING said:

    As I mentioned on the previous thread, this poll is rather odd in not asking respondents about their own views of the potential candidates; instead it asks their views of other voters' views. That makes it even harder to interpret than hypothetical polls usually are.

    Perhaps the main lesson we should draw is not about individuals, but about the need for the Conservative Party to (dare I say it) 'modernise'. Those polled seem to think the party needs a refresh if it is to appeal more widely. They would be right to think that.

    They did effing well modernise, what with hugging hoodies and huskies and all that.

    And then kaPOW! We somehow got ourselves back into the 18th century. The Party and large part of the country also.
    It is staggering. One of the main parties harking back to the unambiguous failures of mid-twentieth century socialism, the other apparently hungering after the years in the wilderness which it finally manged to crawl out of in 2005, the third party invisible and ashamed of its successes in government after decades of insignificance, the Scots in truculent victim-syndrome, and all this after things were actually going rather well for once.
    Quite simply one of the best, most succinct, analyses of today's politics I have ever read.
    Perhaps, Richard, the things you describe in your first 57 words show that things were not really “going rather well” as you (and many others) assumed.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    207/18 Deficit figures:

    Scotland - £13.4bn
    UK - £39.4bn

    Does anyone know - does the UK figure include the Scotland figure?

    One might assume it does - unless the UK figure is for the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt is separate?

    Also - if the answer is indeed "Yes" - how can Hammond control the UK deficit when he can't control what the Scottish Govt does?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45260268

    Why does Scotland spend £3.1 billion on defence? Surely that's a reserved matter for the UK government?
    Hadrian's wall won't rebuild itself, you know.
    Hadrian's Wall isn't in Scotland.
    Frankly they can have that bit back. A sliver of Cumbria and a chunk of Northumbria. Whatevs. (I am Cumbrian)
    I think it would be all of Northumberland, wouldn't it? Runs to Newcastle.
    A few thousand sheep and a million acres of bracken.
    I live north of Hadrian’s Wall... :neutral:
    My most profound sympathies. Could you not just hitch a ride on a cart and escape to the lights of Newcastle?
    I'd argue with some strength that the Northumberland coastline is the best in England - better than Devon or Cornwall say. It's superb.
    Holy Isle is stunning.
    https://www.lindisfarne.org.uk/
    Now you're not wrong there. The mead is also fun for a bit of a change from the usual!
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    That 20k is less than 17.4m by some distance
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    Sandpit said:

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
    See my previous post. The man is so obsessed with blaming Remainers for the country’s ills that he has lost all semblance of common sense.
    Another one of your more self aware posts......

    He just regularly brings data to the Remainers Pity Party.

    I wonder why some of them don't like him?
    He regularly abuses data and makes basic factual errors. No wonder Leavers fawn over his utterances.
    So is a mere 20k change in membership (A) the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit, (B) being abused, or (C) factually incorrect?
    (D) Actually a pretty good effort for a party who have been almost completely invisible since last year’s election.

    I’m guessing they’re probably going back to their roots in local organisation, running street stalls in areas where they have an MP or did up until 2015.
    These are the street stalls to pay attention to if you’re thinking about opposition to Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/wd4europe/status/1020972690696474624?s=21
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    Anazina said:


    Yes, I don't grasp Goodwin's logic here – if indeed there is any to grasp. The LDs adding 20,000 seems a pretty good return to me.
    Matthew Goodwin is rapidly turning into a saloon bar bore, grabbing any data point by the throat and shaking it until he gets it to say what he wants it to say.
    You think the Lib Dems putting on 20,000 members is the stuff of a mass backlash against Brexit ?
    See my previous post. The man is so obsessed with blaming Remainers for the country’s ills that he has lost all semblance of common sense.
    Another one of your more self aware posts......

    He just regularly brings data to the Remainers Pity Party.

    I wonder why some of them don't like him?
    He regularly abuses data and makes basic factual errors.
    Citation required.
This discussion has been closed.