3 Lab, 3 Con, 2 LibDem in 2010 has become 1 Lab, 5 Con, 2 LibDem . These folks are from marginal seats. Small sample but interesting nevertheless as it flies in the face of the chatterati verdict.
Sam Coates tweeting the highlights. Seems the voters arent easily bought with magic wand solutions.
There must surely be more than eight voters involved in this. If it were 40 or 50 it might be useful, but eight seems a very low number on which to base anything. That said, the panel's reactions point to a Tory landslide in 2015 and if anyone takes that seriously there is a lot of very easy money to make from the bookies right now.
No it is just the 8 voters.
The MoE on this would be 35%
We'd be better off analysing a Scottish Subsample.
Still the smallest focus group in the papers was 4 voters for The Indy in 2007.
This is a Focus Group - its not there is be *statistically* representative but to deep dive into opinions. That some don't like the output shows that they are missing the point rather taking note of it.
Not sure what diving into the opinions of eight random voters who happen to live in marginal tells us. But if anyone places any store by the findings there is a fortune to be made right now by betting that these eight are in some way representative of anything.
YouGov anecdote versus PBLefty surge expectations.
3 Lab, 3 Con, 2 LibDem in 2010 has become 1 Lab, 5 Con, 2 LibDem . These folks are from marginal seats. Small sample but interesting nevertheless as it flies in the face of the chatterati verdict.
Sam Coates tweeting the highlights. Seems the voters arent easily bought with magic wand solutions.
There must surely be more than eight voters involved in this. If it were 40 or 50 it might be useful, but eight seems a very low number on which to base anything. That said, the panel's reactions point to a Tory landslide in 2015 and if anyone takes that seriously there is a lot of very easy money to make from the bookies right now.
No it is just the 8 voters.
The MoE on this would be 35%
We'd be better off analysing a Scottish Subsample.
Still the smallest focus group in the papers was 4 voters for The Indy in 2007.
This is a Focus Group - its not there is be *statistically* representative but to deep dive into opinions. That some don't like the output shows that they are missing the point rather taking note of it.
Not sure what diving into the opinions of eight random voters who happen to live in marginal tells us. But if anyone places any store by the findings there is a fortune to be made right now by betting that these eight are in some way representative of anything.
YouGov anecdote versus PBLefty surge expectations.
I'd be interested to see a post from any "PBLefty" forecasting any kind of surge as a result of recent events.
There are so many potentially expensive libelous and/or slanderous responses to the below, well done me for resisting!!
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret41m To trolls saying campaign v Dacre 'boring' 1. You're outnumbered 2. When something matters I see it through. He will be flushed out #coward
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul Times focus group: 3 voted Lab, 3 Con, 2 LD, in 2010: now 1 EdM, 5 Cam, 2 Clegg (most like to see as PM) £ thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/polit…
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress @JohnRentoul the trouble is John that this is so obviously the result the paper would have wanted at the outset. Times v partial these days.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul @oflynnexpress The focus group convened and run by YouGov. And it was not the result that the Times expected.
It is. The reporter on the avowedly Tory-supporting paper seems a lot more switched on than serial Miliband-hater John Rentoul.
That journalist on the Tory paper is a UKIP candidate in the Euros next year.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul Times focus group: 3 voted Lab, 3 Con, 2 LD, in 2010: now 1 EdM, 5 Cam, 2 Clegg (most like to see as PM) £ thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/polit…
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress @JohnRentoul the trouble is John that this is so obviously the result the paper would have wanted at the outset. Times v partial these days.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul @oflynnexpress The focus group convened and run by YouGov. And it was not the result that the Times expected.
It is. The reporter on the avowedly Tory-supporting paper seems a lot more switched on than serial Miliband-hater John Rentoul.
That journalist on the Tory paper is a UKIP candidate in the Euros next year.
And the Express will support the Tories in 2015. As will Rentoul.
"This is a Focus Group - its not there is be *statistically* representative but to deep dive into opinions. That some don't like the output shows that they are missing the point rather taking note of it."
A single focus group of 8 tells you nothing but several of these groups taken over the whole country can give you much more significant information than one or several opinion polls.
3 Lab, 3 Con, 2 LibDem in 2010 has become 1 Lab, 5 Con, 2 LibDem . These folks are from marginal seats. Small sample but interesting nevertheless as it flies in the face of the chatterati verdict.
Sam Coates tweeting the highlights. Seems the voters arent easily bought with magic wand solutions.
There must surely be more than eight voters involved in this. If it were 40 or 50 it might be useful, but eight seems a very low number on which to base anything. That said, the panel's reactions point to a Tory landslide in 2015 and if anyone takes that seriously there is a lot of very easy money to make from the bookies right now.
No it is just the 8 voters.
The MoE on this would be 35%
We'd be better off analysing a Scottish Subsample.
Still the smallest focus group in the papers was 4 voters for The Indy in 2007.
This is a Focus Group - its not there is be *statistically* representative but to deep dive into opinions. That some don't like the output shows that they are missing the point rather taking note of it.
Not sure what diving into the opinions of eight random voters who happen to live in marginal tells us. But if anyone places any store by the findings there is a fortune to be made right now by betting that these eight are in some way representative of anything.
YouGov anecdote versus PBLefty surge expectations.
I'd be interested to see a post from any "PBLefty" forecasting any kind of surge as a result of a recent events.
Try reading this weeks threads. Massive victory for Ed, Super Ed is tougher than titanium, Killer Ed socks it to the Mail, Flags over the Reichstag etc.
3 Lab, 3 Con, 2 LibDem in 2010 has become 1 Lab, 5 Con, 2 LibDem . These folks are from marginal seats. Small sample but interesting nevertheless as it flies in the face of the chatterati verdict.
Sam Coates tweeting the highlights. Seems the voters arent easily bought with magic wand solutions.
There must surely be more than eight voters involved in this. If it were 40 or 50 it might be useful, but eight seems a very low number on which to base anything. That said, the panel's reactions point to a Tory landslide in 2015 and if anyone takes that seriously there is a lot of very easy money to make from the bookies right now.
No it is just the 8 voters.
The MoE on this would be 35%
We'd be better off analysing a Scottish Subsample.
Still the smallest focus group in the papers was 4 voters for The Indy in 2007.
This is a Focus Group - its not there is be *statistically* representative but to deep dive into opinions. That some don't like the output shows that they are missing the point rather taking note of it.
Not sure what diving into the opinions of eight random voters who happen to live in marginal tells us. But if anyone places any store by the findings there is a fortune to be made right now by betting that these eight are in some way representative of anything.
YouGov anecdote versus PBLefty surge expectations.
I'd be interested to see a post from any "PBLefty" forecasting any kind of surge as a result of a recent events.
Try reading this weeks threads. Massive victory for Ed, Super Ed is tougher than titanium, Killer Ed socks it to the Mail, Flags over the Reichstag etc.
So we agree, no-one was forecasting a Labour surge.
"This is a Focus Group - its not there is be *statistically* representative but to deep dive into opinions. That some don't like the output shows that they are missing the point rather taking note of it."
A single focus group of 8 tells you nothing but several of these groups taken over the whole country can give you much more significant information than one or several opinion polls.
Spot on Roger. Too many posters are hung up on the quantiative MR and don't spend enough time of the qualitative. Both are important pointers and need to work in tandem; simply relying on one side is dangerous.
So much for the McBride revelations damaging Miliband. I've read half the book - it's a fab read - and Miliband is painted as clever, decent, of good temperament, experienced and popular among his colleagues.
I may get then - I enjoy a well written memoir.
Of course, very few will read the book - far more will read the Mail's:
"McBride Sordid Revelations!"
"Ed was his best mate!!"
OK. You and Fenster have talked me into it.
Hmm. Discounting racing books, my last four purchases have been recommended on pb: McBride; Hedge Hogs (natural gas trading damaged the wider economy, pensions and hedge funds); Lord Levy; Making It Happen (RBS and the British side of the financial crisis). These go alongside three books by pb authors.
Five. Romps, Tots and Boffins -- which is quite hard to read since it is printed on low grade paper so the print on the other side shows through.
It is said that TV is run by people who don't watch broadcast television. Sometimes I think publishing is run by people who don't read books.
3 Lab, 3 Con, 2 LibDem in 2010 has become 1 Lab, 5 Con, 2 LibDem . These folks are from marginal seats. Small sample but interesting nevertheless as it flies in the face of the chatterati verdict.
Sam Coates tweeting the highlights. Seems the voters arent easily bought with magic wand solutions.
There must surely be m
No it is just the 8 voters.
The MoE on this would be 35%
We'd be better off analysing a Scottish Subsample.
Still the smallest focus group in the papers was 4 voters for The Indy in 2007.
This is a Focus Group - its not there is be *statistically* representative but to deep dive into opinions. That some don't like the output shows that they are missing the point rather taking note of it.
Not sure wh
YouGov anecdote versus PBLefty surge expectations.
I'd be interested to see a post from any "PBLefty" forecasting any kind of surge as a result of a recent events.
Try reading this weeks threads. Massive victory for Ed, Super Ed is tougher than titanium, Killer Ed socks it to the Mail, Flags over the Reichstag etc.
So we agree, no-one was forecasting a Labour surge.
Yes, why not ? Since the PB Lefties have called Ed has "won" the conference season and the battle of the "tough guy" with the Mail. I'll go along with you that his efforts are largely pointless and have changed nothing. We agree SO.
I'm getting seriously disillusioned with this site and where it's going in terms of fairness and objectiveness. There was a time when I would enter this site to check out what is happening and to follow the excellent views and analysis from a wide range of posters and experts. Now unfortunately Political Betting seems to have become a blog that is virtually to a post negative to the Tories while being as positive/helpful to Labour as it can. With this post for example Mike joyfully writes how Cameron's lead is wiped out by Farage and how this must be rolled everywhere where the Tories are doing well. Well Mike here's a thought how about we include all leaders, even (god forbid on this site) leaders who maybe hurt the Labour ratings. Just a thought and view. And if anyone thinks I'm wrong check out the last 20-30 posts on this site and see how many are Positive to Labour/Ed and bash Cameron and the Tories!!
I'm getting seriously disillusioned with this site and where it's going in terms of fairness and objectiveness. There was a time when I would enter this site to check out what is happening and to follow the excellent views and analysis from a wide range of posters and experts. Now unfortunately Political Betting seems to have become a blog that is virtually to a post negative to the Tories while being as positive/helpful to Labour as it can. With this post for example Mike joyfully writes how Cameron's lead is wiped out by Farage and how this must be rolled everywhere where the Tories are doing well. Well Mike here's a thought how about we include all leaders, even (god forbid on this site) leaders who maybe hurt the Labour ratings. Just a thought and view. And if anyone thinks I'm wrong check out the last 20-30 posts on this site and see how many are Positive to Labour/Ed and bash Cameron and the Tories!!
You are being oversensitive is perhaps understating it.
Tory posters outnumber others by a huge margin on this site.
@Alanbrooke - It was Dan Hodges and a couple of other Tory-inclined writers that called the conference season for Ed. And there is little doubt that he has set the political weather over the last few weeks..
I am not sure that his fight with the Mail was pointless. My guess is that it will have strengthened his position inside Labour. It has also made the weak, weak, weak line more difficult to pursue - note Cameron's non-use of it during his speech. And among certain voting groups, such as LD 2010ers who have since switched to Labour and are often more left wing than normal voters I imagine it would have been terribly popular. The bottom line is that there was no real downside: Miliband was always going to be relentlessly and ruthlessly targeted by the Tory press in the lead up to the GE. He has got in some early retaliation and provided a little context to those attacks. Obviously, someone such as yourself will never be impressed by anything he does and will always view him negatively, but he is not interested in you; just as Dave has absolutely no interest in me. Both sides are talking to their own demographics, actual or potential. And what Miliband did last week will be popular with many whose votes he has a chance of getting in 2015.
You have a point but I this is a betting site and perhaps is Mike is just pouring cold waters on those tory posters who are tempted to bet with their hearts rather than their heads.
The fact is, rightly or wrongly, that the electoral arithmetic stacks up in ed miliband's favour right now.
@Alanbrooke - It was Dan Hodges and a couple of other Tory-inclined writers that called the conference season for Ed. And there is little doubt that he has set the political weather over the last few weeks..
I am not sure that his fight with the Mail was pointless. My guess is that it will have strengthened his position inside Labour. It has also made the weak, weak, weak line more difficult to pursue - note Cameron's non-use of it during his speech. And among certain voting groups, such as LD 2010ers who have since switched to Labour and are often more left wing than normal voters I imagine it would have been terribly popular. The bottom line is that there was no real downside: Miliband was always going to be relentlessly and ruthlessly targeted by the Tory press in the lead up to the GE. He has got in some early retaliation and provided a little context to those attacks. Obviously, someone such as yourself will never be impressed by anything he does and will always view him negatively, but he is not interested in you; just as Dave has absolutely no interest in me. Both sides are talking to their own demographics, actual or potential. And what Miliband did last week will be popular with many whose votes he has a chance of getting in 2015.
Why that Dan Hodges he's responsible for everything !
Let's ignore the Guardian or even Henry G yesterday saying David and Goliath and Ed's conforence performnce showing what "he can do to win the next election. And crucially, it is showing signs of working." let's ignore that SO since we are as one. The last 3 weeks have been largely pointless, there should be no expectation of anything changing what we are dealing with is froth.
@Alanbrooke - It was Dan Hodges and a couple of other Tory-inclined writers that called the conference season for Ed. And there is little doubt that he has set the political weather over the last few weeks..
I am not sure that his fight with the Mail was pointless. My guess is that it will have strengthened his position inside Labour. It has also made the weak, weak, weak line more difficult to pursue - note Cameron's non-use of it during his speech. And among certain voting groups, such as LD 2010ers who have since switched to Labour and are often more left wing than normal voters I imagine it would have been terribly popular. The bottom line is that there was no real downside: Miliband was always going to be relentlessly and ruthlessly targeted by the Tory press in the lead up to the GE. He has got in some early retaliation and provided a little context to those attacks. Obviously, someone such as yourself will never be impressed by anything he does and will always view him negatively, but he is not interested in you; just as Dave has absolutely no interest in me. Both sides are talking to their own demographics, actual or potential. And what Miliband did last week will be popular with many whose votes he has a chance of getting in 2015.
Why that Dan Hodges he's responsible for everything !
Let's ignore the Guardian or even Henry G yesterday saying David and Goliath and Ed's conforence performnce showing what "he can do to win the next election. And crucially, it is showing signs of working." let's ignore that SO since we are as one. The last 3 weeks have been largely pointless, there should be no expectation of anything changing what we are dealing with is froth.
@Alanbrooke - It was Dan Hodges and a couple of other Tory-inclined writers that called the conference season for Ed. And there is little doubt that he has set the political weather over the last few weeks..
I am not sure that his fight with the Mail was pointless. My guess is that it will have strengthened his position inside Labour. It has also made the weak, weak, weak line more difficult to pursue - note Cameron's non-use of it during his speech. And among certain voting groups, such as LD 2010ers who have since switched to Labour and are often more left wing than normal voters I imagine it would have been terribly popular. The bottom line is that there was no real downside: Miliband was always going to be relentlessly and ruthlessly targeted by the Tory press in the lead up to the GE. He has got in some early retaliation and provided a little context to those attacks. Obviously, someone such as yourself will never be impressed by anything he does and will always view him negatively, but he is not interested in you; just as Dave has absolutely no interest in me. Both sides are talking to their own demographics, actual or potential. And what Miliband did last week will be popular with many whose votes he has a chance of getting in 2015.
Why that Dan Hodges he's responsible for everything !
Let's ignore the Guardian or even Henry G yesterday saying David and Goliath and Ed's conforence performnce showing what "he can do to win the next election. And crucially, it is showing signs of working." let's ignore that SO since we are as one. The last 3 weeks have been largely pointless, there should be no expectation of anything changing what we are dealing with is froth.
Pretty much agree. We'll be back to normal soon.
yup we'll be back to normal but with Ed now fighting, the Mail and the Business community as well as Murdoch and occasionally Cameron.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul Times focus group: 3 voted Lab, 3 Con, 2 LD, in 2010: now 1 EdM, 5 Cam, 2 Clegg (most like to see as PM) £ thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/polit…
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress @JohnRentoul the trouble is John that this is so obviously the result the paper would have wanted at the outset. Times v partial these days.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul @oflynnexpress The focus group convened and run by YouGov. And it was not the result that the Times expected.
And they are comparing apples with oranges.
Party votes in 2010 may be a better predictor of votes in 2015 than views on best PM
It follows Birmingham university's sad capitulation on the wearing of face-coverings, and the ludicrous confiscation of a pineapple called Mohammed at Reading university. There's a debate at LSE on the burka 15 Oct which might be interesting.
It's what happens when you employ 'anti racism officers'.
Mr. Toms (FPT): what I dislike most about digital TV/radio is that when the signal is even slightly ropey it completely ****s up the viewing experience. When analogue's signal became slightly weak the picture became slightly fuzzier but could still be made out and the sound was usually fine (unless the signal was very poor indeed).
It's a bit more complex than that. DAB and DTV both have error correction, sometimes at multiple levels, which means that limited reception errors can be detected and corrected. A common example of error correction is the Viterbi algorithm.
However, when the signal degrades past the capability of the error correction, the displayed picture / audio quality declines rapidly. As the data is compressed, even a single-bit error not caught by error correction can lead to significant on-screen effects. At times it's like a cliff, with the displayed picture degrading very rapidly.
On the other hand, the wonders of digital allows us to watch about eight channels of Big Brother, many channels of Simon Cowell's gurning mug, or the new BBC ultra-high quality and well-acted series Atlantis.
So that's progress. Ahem.
Thanks guys. DAB is worse than that. For instance it eats energy, in particular batteries if it's a portable set, although I hear they are improving (dis-un-improving?) on that. DAB must have seemed hyper-advanced when the Beeb adopted it those decades ago. But I believe now no other country has chosen to go DAB and anyway they have shoved too many channels into it to get decent fidelity. DAB+ (as J_J says) is better. After a very slow take-up some time ago, when there were but four channels with decent fidelity, the BBC decided to try luring people in by adding a few more, and by other subterfuges, disregarding their own boffins' advice.
This later process goes on all the time: If your expert doesn't tell you what you want to hear you fire him (David Nutt), or ignore them (climate change). In this way---I pontificate---the constant advance of science and technology (a coherent self-correcting process) outstrips our ability and wisdom to manage it.
I'm getting seriously disillusioned with this site and where it's going in terms of fairness and objectiveness. ........And if anyone thinks I'm wrong check out the last 20-30 posts on this site and see how many are Positive to Labour/Ed and bash Cameron and the Tories!!
ManU
I've been posting on this Site since 2005 and can assure you that the balance of partisan posters has waxed and waned over the years.
Back then it was heavily dominated by Labour posters, more recently the Tories have held sway, though probably not as emphatically as a few years back. That's the way it goes on PB and it's all the healthier for it.
What is more troubling is the decline in the number of serious punters posting here. It was the betting angle that gave this Site the edge over over other political Sites which were almost invariably partisan in nature. Punters cannot afford to be partisan, at least not when putting their money down, or they pretty soon become ex-punters as a consequences of no longer having much money left.
We have lost many good punting posters - StJohn, URW, and Caveman for example - whilst others, such as Tissue Price post all too rarely now. They were by no means apolitical and often represented their political views forcibly but were sufficielntly clear-thinking and objective to put their personal preferences to one side when assessing the odds.
It wouldn't matter if the Site were populated 100% by posters of one political persuasion or another if it retained its objectivity in relation to betting matters, because it is that objectivity which marks the Site out as distinctive and in my view superior.
As for Mike, I have got to know him well over the years. He has his political views which are well known, but he has a light touch, as a good Master of Ceremonies should, and he isn't slow to identify a good value bet, regardless of whether it is for or against his team.
Perhaps you could uplift the quality around here a little by letting us have your own betting views, regardless of your political leanings? What do you think, for example, of the 3/1 against Dave winning an overall majority next time round? That's a nice easy one for starters.
Anyone know when the Irish second chamber referendum result is due?
A similar referendum would surely be popular here with the prospect of politicians actually having to endure some austerity themselves,not to mention the savings to the public purse.
F1: tired of excessive money? Feeling leftwing guilt at a high bank balance? Alleviate your socialist dilemma by following my tip for the Korean Grand Prix!
Mr. Punter, whilst the balance of site has ebbed and flowed since 2007 (when I joined) in terms of pleasantness it has undoubtedly declined. That may be the prime cause of fewer punters, and not that many new members joining. It's not tempting to chew the cud when there's so much astroturf around.
Mr. M, I'm not so sure he'll be able to do it. I do think Hulkenberg's a potential world champion, but the car is not great, and he'll have Raikkonen and Webber behind him.
I don't know the area but Loz Kaye, the UK Pirate leader, seems to have been doing a lot of local pavement-politics stuff in Manchester for quite a while - IIUC he stayed off the Euro list to concentrate on that.
Anyone know when the Irish second chamber referendum result is due?
A similar referendum would surely be popular here with the prospect of politicians actually having to endure some austerity themselves,not to mention the savings to the public purse.
Anyone know when the Irish second chamber referendum result is due?
A similar referendum would surely be popular here with the prospect of politicians actually having to endure some austerity themselves,not to mention the savings to the public purse.
The times focus group sample is incredibly small but then it appears to reflects the old adage; "The Economy, Stupid"
Labour cannot help but offer sweeties to get into power. The government are still stealing 100 billion a year from our children, very soon that will have to stop, or alternatively they could raise higher rate income tax to 80%
Cameron is pro EU , but pretends to be a sceptic, with some renegotiation plan that is unlikely to get anywhere. If the EU does decide to make changes, there will be a new treaty and there will a UK referendum on this. Any referendum would split the Tory party in two. This will probably be while the Tories are in opposition from 2015-2020 and may consign them to another period out of office from 2020. At some stage the Tories will have to modernise the party, with a leader who is more in touch with the whole of the UK. Farage is listened to by old fashioned people who hark back to a Britain fifty years ago. They don't like immigration and what they see as a gradual erosion of British culture. When people look at UKIP more closely they may not like what they see. This is why polling reveals that Labour would enjoy more support, if the Tories and UKIP formed an election pact.
"STFOHN" is having a punt in tomorrow's Arc. (St.John, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod"
I fancy both Kizuna and Ruler of the World. I would have preferred a single figure draw for Kizuna but 11 is not too bad. ROTW has a great draw.
I have watched the Prix Niel on Youtube and the form looks solid. Ocovango is 3/4 length back in 3rd and ROTW beat him by 2 lengths at Epsom. Ocovango was unlucky not to be a bit closer at Epsom so the form stands up well.
I've also watched Kizuna's win in the Japan Derby and he comes with a great late rattle. Puts me in mind of Lammtarra's Epsom Derby win.
Three year olds have a great record over the older horses in the Arc. These two came 1st and 2nd in the best Arc trial over C&D and they are both towards the head of the market. The ground looks OK for both. ROTW disappointed in the Irish Derby on ground that may have been too firm. The going in the Prix Niel was soft.
I backed both horses each way with RaceBets yesterday. Kizuna 9/1 and ROTW 12/1. I've also had a reverse forecast with vc.bet.
Of course the favourite Orfevre could well sluice home and was unlucky last year. But 9/4 is a bit tight in my opinion.
Mr. Punter, whilst the balance of site has ebbed and flowed since 2007 (when I joined) in terms of pleasantness it has undoubtedly declined. That may be the prime cause of fewer punters, and not that many new members joining. It's not tempting to chew the cud when there's so much astroturf around.
Not sure that there's actually more unpleasantness around, Morris. Hard thing to measure but I don't think we have anybody quite in Martin Day's league now. Maybe the nastiness notices more because there's less cool assessment of betting odds and that sort of stuff than there used to be.
But I'm with you on any request for a lightening of the tone. Why can't other posters be as sweet and lovely as you and I?
I've just read this in it's entirety. For a paper like the Times it's hilarious. We are actually given the views of Angela the sole Lib Dem who happily for Nick Clegg still thinks he's a strong leader. Could Yougov really have agreed to having their research made to appear ridiculous like this?
"By contrast, David Cameron is still viewed as a “toff” but his conference speech impressed a majority of the group, being described as “more positive”, having “good leadership style” and “confident but arrogant”. Nick Clegg is struggling to be trusted in a “naked search for power” and is seen as unable to stand up to Mr Cameron, although Angela, who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010, said that she thought “he is starting to come across as a strong leader”
A friend of mine - now working in the USA - was diary secretary (if that's the term) for Brown. And for a time for Prescott. A friend of hers I met a few times was the same for David Miliband.
I've never spilled the beans on anything I picked up, tempting as it was. Not that she told anyone much.
Though it's not giving much away to say that Prescott was a considerate boss when it came to realising that people might have a life outside the job, whereas Brown expected everyone to give their soul to it.
When it is explained that apprenticeships and training would be offered all groups apart from current Labour voters are in favour but when specific benefits (HB, JSA and CB) are mentioned no surprises that Con/Ukip voters are broadly in favour and Lab/LD against (even child benefit, just about).
Marcher Lord @MarcherLord1 A Socialist Halloween: When kids knock your door for sweets, you take 50% of theirs and give them to other kids who can't be arsed to go out
Glenda Jackson (Hampstead & Kilburn) John Denham (Southampton Itchen) Dawn Primarolo (Bristol South) Martin Caton (Gower) Bob Ainsworth (Coventry NE) Joan Ruddock (Lewisham Deptford) Nick Raynsford (Greenwich & Woolwich) Geroge Mudie (Leeds East)
+ Joyce in Falkirk
Mudie was born in 1945 and first elected as MP in 1992 GE.
Of course the favourite Orfevre could well sluice home and was unlucky last year. But 9/4 is a bit tight in my opinion.
Thanks for that, stjohn. Appreciated. I got on Orfevre a few weeks ago at 11/4 so I'm holding on to that ticket.
On at 7-2 E/W for 1 pt.
Annoyingly I missed a 10 pt profit day my tipster (Raceclear) had yesterday.
I was on Nichols Canyon 6/1 and Ballinderry Boy 3/1 (WH) which were two of their four tips. Bad luck missing out on those. Gave me a very nice day. How did their other two do?
Of course the favourite Orfevre could well sluice home and was unlucky last year. But 9/4 is a bit tight in my opinion.
Thanks for that, stjohn. Appreciated. I got on Orfevre a few weeks ago at 11/4 so I'm holding on to that ticket.
On at 7-2 E/W for 1 pt.
Annoyingly I missed a 10 pt profit day my tipster (Raceclear) had yesterday.
I was on Nichols Canyon 6/1 and Ballinderry Boy 3/1 (WH) which were two of their four tips. Bad luck missing out on those. Gave me a very nice day. How did their other two do?
They lost, but one was at big odds (25-1), the other was at big odds too.
Of course the favourite Orfevre could well sluice home and was unlucky last year. But 9/4 is a bit tight in my opinion.
Thanks for that, stjohn. Appreciated. I got on Orfevre a few weeks ago at 11/4 so I'm holding on to that ticket.
No problem. May the best horse win!
I must admit you have twisted my arm. I'm still really happy with my early Orfevre - which is now 2/1 at Hills. But I've just put a precautionary groat on Kizuna and Ruler of the World to keep the juices flowing during the race.
Paddy Power has announced it's paying out on a 'No' result in the Seanad Referendum. 'The odds on a Yes vote were as big as 5/1 yesterday but we think it's now done & dusted'
Re the threads and whether there's a theme, if OGH was open to this - what is the seats betting position he's currently got on the various parties? It is none of our business but might help refute some of the below moans about anti one party or the other bias in the thread choices.
Now unless I'm out of touch with London lifestyles my first thought was:
MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES DO NOT HAVE NANNIES
The assumptions of the metropolitan rich as to what is 'middle class' or 'squeezed middle' or 'average earnings' together with the resulting self-pity is always amazing.
Are these people wilfully ignorant about 95% of the country or is their self-importance so all enveloping that reality is unable to penetrate ?
Scrapheap - OGH is long UKIP, long Labour I think but is not averse to good value CON bets such as the Con most seats, con most votes that was offered by Paddy at 2-1 a while ago.
Middle class families have the girl living next door taking care (well, actually, looking at their children while she's texting and they are playing/watching tv) of their children for a couple of hours without a formal contract.
I love the Daily Mail's obsession with middle-class. They have headlines like "Middle Class Person Horribly Murdered" just to alert you to fact that that person, you know, mattered.
Now unless I'm out of touch with London lifestyles my first thought was:
MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES DO NOT HAVE NANNIES
The assumptions of the metropolitan rich as to what is 'middle class' or 'squeezed middle' or 'average earnings' together with the resulting self-pity is always amazing.
Are these people wilfully ignorant about 95% of the country or is their self-importance so all enveloping that reality is unable to penetrate ?
The whole misappropriation of politicians and the media to stick 'the middle' precisely where they think it will best suitthem is intensely annoying. The median wage in this country is £26k, no parents on 26k will have a nanny
Now unless I'm out of touch with London lifestyles my first thought was:
MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES DO NOT HAVE NANNIES
The assumptions of the metropolitan rich as to what is 'middle class' or 'squeezed middle' or 'average earnings' together with the resulting self-pity is always amazing.
Are these people wilfully ignorant about 95% of the country or is their self-importance so all enveloping that reality is unable to penetrate ?
The whole misappropriation of politicians and the media to stick 'the middle' precisely where they think it will best suitthem is intensely annoying. The median wage in this country is £26k, no parents on 26k will have a nanny
I still smile at the memory of a BBC newsreader being taken apart by an economist when discussing 'typical' 'second home owners'......
Not sure that there's actually more unpleasantness around, Morris. Hard thing to measure but I don't think we have anybody quite in Martin Day's league now. Maybe the nastiness notices more because there's less cool assessment of betting odds and that sort of stuff than there used to be.
But I'm with you on any request for a lightening of the tone. Why can't other posters be as sweet and lovely as you and I?
Hi Peter
The nastiness and lack of betting posts are tightly correlated.
You will recall at the last general election I collated various individual seat bets posted by a number of regulars and they were published as thread headers.
My creepy stalker uses that info to call me stupid on countless threads since.
Not sure that there's actually more unpleasantness around, Morris. Hard thing to measure but I don't think we have anybody quite in Martin Day's league now. Maybe the nastiness notices more because there's less cool assessment of betting odds and that sort of stuff than there used to be.
But I'm with you on any request for a lightening of the tone. Why can't other posters be as sweet and lovely as you and I?
Hi Peter
The nastiness and lack of betting posts are tightly correlated.
You will recall at the last general election I collated various individual seat bets posted by a number of regulars and they were published as thread headers.
My creepy stalker uses that info to call me stupid on countless threads since.
Such behaviour can not encourage others to share.
YMMV
Lack of betting markets is a related issue too.
Is it my imagination, or are there fewer political betting events than there used to be? The UK and US GEs are still great but we used to get some decent stuff in-between, like France, Italy, by-elections and the occasional resignation crisis. I remember making a packet out Blair's resignation date. You don't seem to get much of that sort of stuff any more. Maybe PB has scared the bookies off.
Will you be at Cheltenham for the Paddy Power? See you there?
I want more of Ed versus the Daily Mail! Everyone knows that acting like a teenage sympathy seeker in full view of the public gaze is the surest route to becoming PM. Having the hatchet-faced Ali Campbell defending your corner is but icing on the cake. More please!
re Kingswood - @AndreaParma82 spotted that Josie Channer the Labour PPC has stepped down, non payment of parking fines in Barking and Dagenham where she was a councillor. Tricky new selection issue for Labour. 18 months to go to next GE. Tory MP Chris Skidmore able to play local boy card - born close by, educated in Bristol.
LDs had 18% of vote, UKIP 3.2%. In June, Labour appeared to be split over selection of Channer - product of AWS - not local, not backed by a trade union, Councillor in Barking, former prison officer. Claims that Kingswood is a key margin might imply that Labour have to show that they can agree on the merits of their next candidate sooner rather than later. Have they shot themselves in the foot?
Re the threads and whether there's a theme, if OGH was open to this - what is the seats betting position he's currently got on the various parties? It is none of our business but might help refute some of the below moans about anti one party or the other bias in the thread choices.
Mr. Punter, whilst the balance of site has ebbed and flowed since 2007 (when I joined) in terms of pleasantness it has undoubtedly declined. That may be the prime cause of fewer punters, and not that many new members joining. It's not tempting to chew the cud when there's so much astroturf around.
Not sure that there's actually more unpleasantness around, Morris. Hard thing to measure but I don't think we have anybody quite in Martin Day's league now. Maybe the nastiness notices more because there's less cool assessment of betting odds and that sort of stuff than there used to be.
But I'm with you on any request for a lightening of the tone. Why can't other posters be as sweet and lovely as you and I?
I would like to point out that the chap who posted as Martin Day (who was actually someone he was at school with and envied) was suffering from fairly severe depression and associated mental illnesses. I occasionally hear from him and he is on constant medication and now living with his father.
There is one poster on here who puts a great many people off. He is the person who seems incapable of referring to anyone from the centre-right without insulting them and he also happens to be the person who has posted far more posts on here than anyone else. He seems to spend on average 12-15 hours a day on PB when he is here. He is certainly the reason I vastly reduced my contributions. I was frankly getting tired of his constant insults and also the vitriol he directed towards several female PB posters including one who was in tears on the phone one evening to me because of what he had said to/about her.
Mr. Punter, whilst the balance of site has ebbed and flowed since 2007 (when I joined) in terms of pleasantness it has undoubtedly declined. That may be the prime cause of fewer punters, and not that many new members joining. It's not tempting to chew the cud when there's so much astroturf around.
Not sure that there's actually more unpleasantness around, Morris. Hard thing to measure but I don't think we have anybody quite in Martin Day's league now. Maybe the nastiness notices more because there's less cool assessment of betting odds and that sort of stuff than there used to be.
But I'm with you on any request for a lightening of the tone. Why can't other posters be as sweet and lovely as you and I?
I would like to point out that the chap who posted as Martin Day (who was actually someone he was at school with and envied) was suffering from fairly severe depression and associated mental illnesses. I occasionally hear from him and he is on constant medication and now living with his father.
There is one poster on here who puts a great many people off. He is the person who seems incapable of referring to anyone from the centre-right without insulting them and he also happens to be the person who has posted far more posts on here than anyone else. He seems to spend on average 12-15 hours a day on PB when he is here. He is certainly the reason I vastly reduced my contributions. I was frankly getting tired of his constant insults and also the vitriol he directed towards several female PB posters including one who was in tears on the phone one evening to me because of what he had said to/about her.
+1
A couple of very pleasant threads a few days ago, sadly back to normal service now.
Can someone explain what is wrong with the article and why it has created such a fuss?
Alastair Campbell will be along shortly to make the moral case against a free press...
Pretty much. Witness the Guardian screaming for Leveson to be implemented in full to stitch up Murdoch and the Mail and oh dear does it apply to us as well?
Rather funny to think of Farage taking on Laura Sandys. He couldn't beat a wee numpty like Bercow who thrashed him. What chance has he got against a candidate whose step-mother was a Churchill and father a well known Tory MP? Could just see Farage campaigning on the streets of Thanet as members of some of the best known right wing Tory families in England campaign with big blue rosettes. She would thrash him.
Tories were probably saying the same thing in Eastleigh - Boris, Dave and other MPs turned out in droves, but the Tory candidate finished third - in a two-horse race!
Thanet South was one of the constituencies 'won' by UKIP in the County Elections. UKIP seem to do particularly well on the coast, with retirees and the general decay. They seem to be going gangbusters in Kent.
With every by-election and election UKIP are uncovering where their electoral support is. The local elections in 2014 will uncover more UKIP 'hotspots'.
Nigel comes from the area (Herne) and I have a strong suspicion, despite ridicule on this thread, that he will take part in the PM debates after a strong showing in the Euro elections.
As for Sandys, inheriting your seat due to your forebears seems to smell of out-of-touch toff that has boosted UKIP support over the last three years.
In contrast to Easterross I find the endless right wing trolling on PB its least attractive element. I find the victimhood displayed by some posters who are willing to dish it out but all too quick to cry foul when they get it back pretty sickening and the endless posts about tim utterly tedious. But I guess that's because Easterross and I have different political views and perspectives. If you don't like stuff ignore it. There are enough excellent posters of all hues on here to keep everyone happy. Sometimes it gets silly, but so does politics generally - see this week.
Charles Moore agrees with me that Miliband is both frightening and dangerous
'Mr Miliband’s move on energy is not an isolated electoral ploy. It is part of an ideology which, though ultimately pauperising and totalitarian, will always have an appeal when capitalism gets itself into a mess.
Like a good Marxist, he detects the cowardice latent in capitalists. He finds weakness, and strikes. Defenders of a free society won’t win unless they are tough and clear-minded enough to strike back.'
This Miliband character needs all the scrutiny we can give him. He must not, under any circumstances, be allowed to worm his way into a position of power. And to damnation with his poor, hurt feelings!
Mr. Punter, whilst the balance of site has ebbed and flowed since 2007 (when I joined) in terms of pleasantness it has undoubtedly declined. That may be the prime cause of fewer punters, and not that many new members joining. It's not tempting to chew the cud when there's so much astroturf around.
Not sure that there's actually more unpleasantness around, Morris. Hard thing to measure but I don't think we have anybody quite in Martin Day's league now. Maybe the nastiness notices more because there's less cool assessment of betting odds and that sort of stuff than there used to be.
But I'm with you on any request for a lightening of the tone. Why can't other posters be as sweet and lovely as you and I?
I would like to point out that the chap who posted as Martin Day (who was actually someone he was at school with and envied) was suffering from fairly severe depression and associated mental illnesses. I occasionally hear from him and he is on constant medication and now living with his father.
There is one poster on here who puts a great many people off. He is the person who seems incapable of referring to anyone from the centre-right without insulting them and he also happens to be the person who has posted far more posts on here than anyone else. He seems to spend on average 12-15 hours a day on PB when he is here. He is certainly the reason I vastly reduced my contributions. I was frankly getting tired of his constant insults and also the vitriol he directed towards several female PB posters including one who was in tears on the phone one evening to me because of what he had said to/about her.
Yes, I was aware that said Martin Day had issues. That was pretty apparent anyway from the way he posted - not always nasty, sometimes very funny, but occasionally completely beyond the pale so that Mike had to warn or ban him.
You can't make allowances for people's personal circumstances though, if only because we never really know them. You have to judge people by what they post.
I've never defended ill manners or insuting behaviour on here - except perhaps when it was from SeanT, who is something of a special case anyway.
Incidentally, the timing of the post-race piece may be after the highlights. I plan on awaking to listen to the race (starts 7am) but if the tiresome Legard is doing the commentary I'll switch it off and wait for the highlights.
On unpleasantness: Mr. Punter, I must disagree. It is incontestable that proportionally there is more unpleasantness, and I would argue the same is true in absolute terms. Repetition of negative or derogatory posts, the use of manufactured terms (such as a now banned term that could mean a group of cows) and an unwillingness to concede when (even on a proven, factual basis) wrong by a small but vocal minority is driving away neutrals and those who simply don't want to put up with it.
Comments
Poor old Nigel, the odds on finding 2 UKIPhobic cabbies in Edinburgh must have been astronomical.
There are so many potentially expensive libelous and/or slanderous responses to the below, well done me for resisting!!
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret41m
To trolls saying campaign v Dacre 'boring' 1. You're outnumbered 2. When something matters I see it through. He will be flushed out #coward
"This is a Focus Group - its not there is be *statistically* representative but to deep dive into opinions. That some don't like the output shows that they are missing the point rather taking note of it."
A single focus group of 8 tells you nothing but several of these groups taken over the whole country can give you much more significant information than one or several opinion polls.
They really hate the banks and he's an ex city chap.
Honestly when I asked them to take me to The Mound to the Bank of Scotland offices I got dirty looks and rants about those effing bankers (sic)
I'd have got nicer looks if I had told them I was a Tory.
It is said that TV is run by people who don't watch broadcast television. Sometimes I think publishing is run by people who don't read books.
Yes, why not ? Since the PB Lefties have called Ed has "won" the conference season and the battle of the "tough guy" with the Mail. I'll go along with you that his efforts are largely pointless and have changed nothing. We agree SO.
I wonder if Ed Miliband supports that.
Any wonder that many lefties will not subscribe to some of these rags.
Tory posters outnumber others by a huge margin on this site.
I am not sure that his fight with the Mail was pointless. My guess is that it will have strengthened his position inside Labour. It has also made the weak, weak, weak line more difficult to pursue - note Cameron's non-use of it during his speech. And among certain voting groups, such as LD 2010ers who have since switched to Labour and are often more left wing than normal voters I imagine it would have been terribly popular. The bottom line is that there was no real downside: Miliband was always going to be relentlessly and ruthlessly targeted by the Tory press in the lead up to the GE. He has got in some early retaliation and provided a little context to those attacks. Obviously, someone such as yourself will never be impressed by anything he does and will always view him negatively, but he is not interested in you; just as Dave has absolutely no interest in me. Both sides are talking to their own demographics, actual or potential. And what Miliband did last week will be popular with many whose votes he has a chance of getting in 2015.
"Will they be wearing "Dance On Maggie's Grave" t-shirts?"
maybe something like this from his own rag
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/05/16/article-0-19CD6CED000005DC-216_634x615.jpg
You have a point but I this is a betting site and perhaps is Mike is just pouring cold waters on those tory posters who are tempted to bet with their hearts rather than their heads.
The fact is, rightly or wrongly, that the electoral arithmetic stacks up in ed miliband's favour right now.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/ed-miliband-calls-for-owner-of-daily-mail-to-launch-inquiry-into-culture-of-his-papers-8856571.html
Saturday :- Mail twists the knife into Labour and Burnham :- Time for an inquiry into the culture and practices of Labour:
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2444632/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Time-inquiry-culture-practices-Labour.html#ixzz2gq6M6mhQ
If I was advising Ed I'd be a bit concerned that he doesn't become too associated with the occupy tendency.
The Mail can do this every day. At some juncture Ed is is going to have to start fighting the tories...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2443700/Woman-keeps-pair-anteaters-washing-machine-ants-kitchen.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
Let's ignore the Guardian or even Henry G yesterday saying David and Goliath and Ed's conforence performnce showing what "he can do to win the next election. And crucially, it is showing signs of working." let's ignore that SO since we are as one. The last 3 weeks have been largely pointless, there should be no expectation of anything changing what we are dealing with is froth.
Neither, to be fair, has this link to a photograph from the same site which features a particularly vile t-shirt
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/05/08/article-1384726-0BE4629D00000578-593_468x510.jpg
Party votes in 2010 may be a better predictor of votes in 2015 than views on best PM
This later process goes on all the time:
If your expert doesn't tell you what you want to hear you fire him (David Nutt), or ignore them (climate change). In this way---I pontificate---the constant advance of science and technology (a coherent self-correcting process) outstrips our ability and wisdom to manage it.
I'm amused that those stating the wearing of a veil is a matter of freedom don't take the same view regarding a T-shirt.
Hunting for a tip or two for the race. Tricky.
I've been posting on this Site since 2005 and can assure you that the balance of partisan posters has waxed and waned over the years.
Back then it was heavily dominated by Labour posters, more recently the Tories have held sway, though probably not as emphatically as a few years back. That's the way it goes on PB and it's all the healthier for it.
What is more troubling is the decline in the number of serious punters posting here. It was the betting angle that gave this Site the edge over over other political Sites which were almost invariably partisan in nature. Punters cannot afford to be partisan, at least not when putting their money down, or they pretty soon become ex-punters as a consequences of no longer having much money left.
We have lost many good punting posters - StJohn, URW, and Caveman for example - whilst others, such as Tissue Price post all too rarely now. They were by no means apolitical and often represented their political views forcibly but were sufficielntly clear-thinking and objective to put their personal preferences to one side when assessing the odds.
It wouldn't matter if the Site were populated 100% by posters of one political persuasion or another if it retained its objectivity in relation to betting matters, because it is that objectivity which marks the Site out as distinctive and in my view superior.
As for Mike, I have got to know him well over the years. He has his political views which are well known, but he has a light touch, as a good Master of Ceremonies should, and he isn't slow to identify a good value bet, regardless of whether it is for or against his team.
Perhaps you could uplift the quality around here a little by letting us have your own betting views, regardless of your political leanings? What do you think, for example, of the 3/1 against Dave winning an overall majority next time round? That's a nice easy one for starters.
http://youtu.be/zMc_YOYOGtM
A similar referendum would surely be popular here with the prospect of politicians actually having to endure some austerity themselves,not to mention the savings to the public purse.
I've backed Mercedes to top score at 3.5. More explanation and assorted stuff here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/korea-pre-race.html
General Election @UKELECTIONS2015
MANCHESTER - Ancoats and Clayton BY ELECTION...
AHOY M'hearties you have a chance to vote for the Pirate Party
http://thepollshavenowclosed.blogspot.com/2013/10/manchester-ancoats-and-clayton-council.html?spref=tw …
Live coverage of counting in Seanad abolition and court of civil appeal referendums
Live blog: The referendum counts as they happen
Labour cannot help but offer sweeties to get into power. The government are still stealing 100 billion a year from our children, very soon that will have to stop, or alternatively they could raise higher rate income tax to 80%
I fancy both Kizuna and Ruler of the World. I would have preferred a single figure draw for Kizuna but 11 is not too bad. ROTW has a great draw.
I have watched the Prix Niel on Youtube and the form looks solid. Ocovango is 3/4 length back in 3rd and ROTW beat him by 2 lengths at Epsom. Ocovango was unlucky not to be a bit closer at Epsom so the form stands up well.
I've also watched Kizuna's win in the Japan Derby and he comes with a great late rattle. Puts me in mind of Lammtarra's Epsom Derby win.
Three year olds have a great record over the older horses in the Arc. These two came 1st and 2nd in the best Arc trial over C&D and they are both towards the head of the market. The ground looks OK for both. ROTW disappointed in the Irish Derby on ground that may have been too firm. The going in the Prix Niel was soft.
I backed both horses each way with RaceBets yesterday. Kizuna 9/1 and ROTW 12/1. I've also had a reverse forecast with vc.bet.
Of course the favourite Orfevre could well sluice home and was unlucky last year. But 9/4 is a bit tight in my opinion.
Thanks,surprised it's so close.
Not sure that there's actually more unpleasantness around, Morris. Hard thing to measure but I don't think we have anybody quite in Martin Day's league now. Maybe the nastiness notices more because there's less cool assessment of betting odds and that sort of stuff than there used to be.
But I'm with you on any request for a lightening of the tone. Why can't other posters be as sweet and lovely as you and I?
Where's Neil when you need him?
"By contrast, David Cameron is still viewed as a “toff” but his conference speech impressed a majority of the group, being described as “more positive”, having “good leadership style” and “confident but arrogant”. Nick Clegg is struggling to be trusted in a “naked search for power” and is seen as unable to stand up to Mr Cameron, although Angela, who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010, said that she thought “he is starting to come across as a strong leader”
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.111106409
I got on Orfevre a few weeks ago at 11/4 so I'm holding on to that ticket.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/lfgeq60e74/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-031013-Conservative-conference-polling.pdf
When it is explained that apprenticeships and training would be offered all groups apart from current Labour voters are in favour but when specific benefits (HB, JSA and CB) are mentioned no surprises that Con/Ukip voters are broadly in favour and Lab/LD against (even child benefit, just about).
http://www.surreymirror.co.uk/London-mayor-Boris-Johnson-backs-Crispin-Blunt/story-19888482-detail/story.html
Annoyingly I missed a 10 pt profit day my tipster (Raceclear) had yesterday.
Marcher Lord @MarcherLord1
A Socialist Halloween: When kids knock your door for sweets, you take 50% of theirs and give them to other kids who can't be arsed to go out
Glenda Jackson (Hampstead & Kilburn)
John Denham (Southampton Itchen)
Dawn Primarolo (Bristol South)
Martin Caton (Gower)
Bob Ainsworth (Coventry NE)
Joan Ruddock (Lewisham Deptford)
Nick Raynsford (Greenwich & Woolwich)
Geroge Mudie (Leeds East)
+ Joyce in Falkirk
Mudie was born in 1945 and first elected as MP in 1992 GE.
Questions to which the answer is YES No 1.
http://liveblog.irishtimes.com/5b6922d008/LIVE-Referendum-count-/
"Middle-class parents are to be forced to pay hundreds of pounds a year into pensions for their nannies."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2444618/Parents-face-600-year-nannies-new-pension-rules.html#ixzz2gqlTTc1m
Now unless I'm out of touch with London lifestyles my first thought was:
MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES DO NOT HAVE NANNIES
The assumptions of the metropolitan rich as to what is 'middle class' or 'squeezed middle' or 'average earnings' together with the resulting self-pity is always amazing.
Are these people wilfully ignorant about 95% of the country or is their self-importance so all enveloping that reality is unable to penetrate ?
They have headlines like "Middle Class Person Horribly Murdered" just to alert you to fact that that person, you know, mattered.
The nastiness and lack of betting posts are tightly correlated.
You will recall at the last general election I collated various individual seat bets posted by a number of regulars and they were published as thread headers.
My creepy stalker uses that info to call me stupid on countless threads since.
Such behaviour can not encourage others to share.
YMMV
Is it my imagination, or are there fewer political betting events than there used to be? The UK and US GEs are still great but we used to get some decent stuff in-between, like France, Italy, by-elections and the occasional resignation crisis. I remember making a packet out Blair's resignation date. You don't seem to get much of that sort of stuff any more. Maybe PB has scared the bookies off.
Will you be at Cheltenham for the Paddy Power? See you there?
LDs had 18% of vote, UKIP 3.2%. In June, Labour appeared to be split over selection of Channer - product of AWS - not local, not backed by a trade union, Councillor in Barking, former prison officer. Claims that Kingswood is a key margin might imply that Labour have to show that they can agree on the merits of their next candidate sooner rather than later. Have they shot themselves in the foot?
My worst position is on a LAB majority
There is one poster on here who puts a great many people off. He is the person who seems incapable of referring to anyone from the centre-right without insulting them and he also happens to be the person who has posted far more posts on here than anyone else. He seems to spend on average 12-15 hours a day on PB when he is here. He is certainly the reason I vastly reduced my contributions. I was frankly getting tired of his constant insults and also the vitriol he directed towards several female PB posters including one who was in tears on the phone one evening to me because of what he had said to/about her.
Quite mild compared to the average ludicrous Thatcher article in the Guardian. I'm guessing it's the usual mock outrage as it is the Daily Mail.
Probably won't be at Cheltenham. Good luck!
A couple of very pleasant threads a few days ago, sadly back to normal service now.
Thanet South was one of the constituencies 'won' by UKIP in the County Elections. UKIP seem to do particularly well on the coast, with retirees and the general decay. They seem to be going gangbusters in Kent.
With every by-election and election UKIP are uncovering where their electoral support is. The local elections in 2014 will uncover more UKIP 'hotspots'.
Nigel comes from the area (Herne) and I have a strong suspicion, despite ridicule on this thread, that he will take part in the PM debates after a strong showing in the Euro elections.
As for Sandys, inheriting your seat due to your forebears seems to smell of out-of-touch toff that has boosted UKIP support over the last three years.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/chris-skidmore-mp-defends-cuts-2336876
"Tory MP Chris Skidmore says cuts aren't so bad as people aren't 'lying dead in the streets'
5 Oct 2013 00:00
Rising Conservative star insists his conference remarks to the Thatcherite Free Enterprise Group were taken out of context,
'Mr Miliband’s move on energy is not an isolated electoral ploy. It is part of an ideology which, though ultimately pauperising and totalitarian, will always have an appeal when capitalism gets itself into a mess.
Like a good Marxist, he detects the cowardice latent in capitalists. He finds weakness, and strikes. Defenders of a free society won’t win unless they are tough and clear-minded enough to strike back.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10356363/The-real-target-should-not-have-been-Miliband-senior-but-his-son.html
This Miliband character needs all the scrutiny we can give him. He must not, under any circumstances, be allowed to worm his way into a position of power. And to damnation with his poor, hurt feelings!
You can't make allowances for people's personal circumstances though, if only because we never really know them. You have to judge people by what they post.
I've never defended ill manners or insuting behaviour on here - except perhaps when it was from SeanT, who is something of a special case anyway.
He seems very confident about the content of the emails - put up or shut is the message to Hunt. Still claiming that the Tories are smearing.
The next round of FOI on CQC and DoH emails in early 2010 might put the affair in a different light for one side or the other.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-24409965
Incidentally, the timing of the post-race piece may be after the highlights. I plan on awaking to listen to the race (starts 7am) but if the tiresome Legard is doing the commentary I'll switch it off and wait for the highlights.
On unpleasantness: Mr. Punter, I must disagree. It is incontestable that proportionally there is more unpleasantness, and I would argue the same is true in absolute terms. Repetition of negative or derogatory posts, the use of manufactured terms (such as a now banned term that could mean a group of cows) and an unwillingness to concede when (even on a proven, factual basis) wrong by a small but vocal minority is driving away neutrals and those who simply don't want to put up with it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2445153/Are-TV-detector-vans-just-cunning-trick-For-decades-claimed-trap-licence-cheats-In-fact-theyve-led-single-prosecution.html