Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » That YouGov CON 4% lead poll looks very much out of line
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » That YouGov CON 4% lead poll looks very much out of line
One of the problems with polling analysis is that the outliers tend to get much more publicity and attention than those that are broadly in line with everybody else. We saw that with the latest YouGov poll showeding Labour down at its lowest level since the general election four Points behind the Conservatives.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/local/wp/2018/08/14/paul-manafort-trial-day-11-live-coverage/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-42462431
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/06/26/guest-slot-social-media-and-shy-rightwingers/
But it is not what anyone should accept in a modern democracy.
Labour cannot rescue itself from this swamp of bigots and haters.
I don’t know what the Munich bombing is but the Black September terrorists who took Israeli Olympians hostage and maimed, tortured and killed them. You keep on saying they are buried in Libya and I have no reason to disbelieve you. The mastermind behind the attacks is buried in Tunis in a grave upon which Corbyn placed a wreath to ‘honour’ him.
I’ve never said Corbyn was a communist spy.
I do believe he is anti-Semitic. But it is not a fact. I think his actions show this but perhaps he is a misunderstood man of peace who keeps on talking to the enemies of Israel and honouring them thinking this will somehow bring about peace
This gives people a way (using http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/) a mechanism of understanding as to what this structural swing has been. if you pick a set of percentages for each party (it doesn't matter which you pick) and use them on all three sets of numbers you see quite how big the structural advantage was in favour of Labour in 2010 (which was still present from the 1997 and 2001 TB wins).
More people should jump ship to other parties or found new movements as parties stretch beyond even their broad tribes of support, it is a shame that is so difficult in our system, as it seems to make a lot of people stick around out of tribal loyalty and be increasingly despondent about things as a result.
Still waiting to hear BJO's thoughts...
And believe me, one day they will look up from the grassy fields and realise they have midwifed a f***ing disaster for this country.
I really feel for the Ian Austin’s of this world. I’m sure I’d disagree with the bloke a lot, but, I’m sure he’s trying to do his best for all of us as he sees it. I’m sure there are countless other Labour members just like him. Genuine, good people at heart.
However, we’ve long jumped the shark. JC seems to have a cult for whom he can do no wrong even in the face of overwhelming evidence. It’s bloody scary.
Ohhhhh Jeremy Corbyn
It needs a very boring 2020’s.
https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/1029394105183465473?s=19
It is not even Trump that worries me the most, but the prospect that Trump may evade justice, and then future politicians — without Trump's baggage and stupidity — follow in his path. Imagine another Nixon in the 2020s, what would he be able to get away with?
However Labour's problems in this area are being driven by the culture encouraged by the leadership and his support network. Corbyn arrived claiming to represent a kinder, gentler politics. And we have got the reverse. He has allowed the Labour Party to become toxic with hate.
He has taken no real steps to prevent his supporters from behaving in this nasty way. Indeed he seems to refuse to even acknowledge it as a problem.
There will always be a certain level of abuse in politics - but Labour has taken it to new depths. Corbyn, Momentum and the rest of the fellow travellers are completely responsible for this breakdown.
And it's started:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1029473368389632000
Bit sarky there, The Independent!
Is this true though?
The real question – one that underpins virtually all of the controversies in recent weeks about antisemitism – is this: what is Mr Corbyn’s policy towards Israel? This is what he needs to make a speech about, not so much the routine form of words about antisemitism he mouths. He badly needs to clear this up
I mean, it is ultimately what his supporters claim all this for the past two years has been about, but is there that much to clear up?
But we are talking about Labour abuse here. And it would seem you have no response as all you do is try to divert attention.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/05/the-tories-never-condemn-the-naked-racism-of-benjamin-netanyahu-they-should/
Take 'For the many not the few' for instance. Not a terrible slogan by any means, in sentiment or punchiness, but now it is so easily changed to 'not the jew', or else I just cannot help but reflect that the Tories got more support from the many in 2017, 2015 and 2010, which are apparently the wrong many to be for.
Then you have 'Strong and stable', which is again not terrible, it is a simple pitch portraying a solid message of competence. But given how the election went and all the chaos in the year afterwards, the Tories won't be able to use one like that again.
I see from this page Traditional Unionist Voice went with the slogan 'Drain the Swamp'. Plagiarisers.
The Alliance Party's 'Change direction' just makes me think 'in which way?', and to think of that LD ad (which I did like actually) about looking left, then right, then going straight on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.K._political_slogans#2017_general_election
Plus, whatever his faults Nixon was a politician, interested in ideas and policy and debate.
I mean duh.
I get that you are clearly embarrassed by the state of affairs within the Labour Party. But these things have to be confronted otherwise the situation will never change.
Corbyn could have set in motion proper disciplinary processes to remove those guilty of abuse from the party - but he didn't.
So before we move on to other parties - how about sticking to the matter under discussion?
‘Wibbly wobbly Tory bottoms’
‘Cameron! Pledge a referendum on EU membership. NOW!’
‘Osborne has to go.’
‘That Michael Crick really is a ...’
I have no idea, nor do I see why that's relevant, it isn't a contest to see gets attacked more, I just noted she does put up with a lot of it.
I would hope not, nor did I ever say any did.
In part, of course, but she gets a lot and I can easily believe it is more likely to be racist in nature than others. I didn't suggest others don't receive abuse.
So, crap as well as liars.
2+2 = 4.
"Oh I think you are making heavy weather of basic arithmetic there. What about 5? 5 might be right. It appears to me that 5 might be right."
You can call it diverting attention all you want, but if you don't want to answer that question then I'm going to keep pointing out you're a hypocrite.
Utterly.
He suddenly has lost words.
I wonder why.
BBC - back of the net!!!!