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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair punters make it a 20% chance that Corbyn won’t last
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair punters make it a 20% chance that Corbyn won’t last the year
One betting market which we’ve never reported on has been the Betfair’s year of Corbyn’s departure. This isn’t so surprising for following his reelection by a whopping margin 2 years ago the Labour leader has looked totally secure. This of course has been helped by the overwhelming support he appears to have from the membership and there has been virtually nothing his detractors can do to shift him.
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https://twitter.com/SocialHistoryOx/status/1029030460637282304
LAB: 39% (+2)
CON: 37% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (-)
GRN: 5% (+1)
UKIP: 5% (+2)
via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug
Events in Westminster today and the verdict in the trial of Ben Stokes due today or tomorrow will dominate the news.
Nethanyahu's intervention will help Jez too.
He’s not going to resign before Brexit and a load of internal party changes that are coming up, and if he’s no-confidenced by the MPs again then we’ll see a repeat of the 2016 exercise that saw him emphatically returned by the membership.
Jewish people are people the same as anybody else. And whats more, Jewish people have a wide range of opinions like anybody else. They aren't a unified block all saying the same thing. We have several active Jewish members, they aren't pro-Corbyn but that isn't a new thing because of the current row.
I reckon they're about the same when it comes to bumsucking the Saudis.
Still, if Corbyn supporters want to make a comparison between him and Thatcher as to who was toughest on terrorists, they can go right ahead.
The effect is cumulative.
More Old Estonian than Old Etonian was the complaint I recall.
I tend to think that none of this will make much difference to the public's view. Those who care, care and those who don't are more concerned with other matters. There are only two
things which will change matters: (1) if he starts losing support within the party ie if people feel that the Left agenda will be best carried on by someone other than him; (2) if he is directly linked to some terrorist group / person involved in a terrorist incident in the UK or involving British citizens.
I am in no position to assess the former. I think there is an appreciable risk of the latter given Corbyn's carelessness (let's put it no higher) over the years. But who can say. Certainly, the latter is what would give me most concern, were I a Labour strategist. It is possible that voters can ignore all sorts of things for ages and ages and then, all of a sudden, the wind changes and some very similar event happens or is uncovered and all hell breaks loose.
The Conservatives have long owned the mantle of being anti-semitic and I suppose part of the outrage and disappointment now with Jezza is that, until now, Labour has not indulged also.
"Jeremy Corbyn was elected leader, but I don't think I was involved...."
Directed at the promotions of Britton, Lawson, Joseph, and Young, and the influence of Victor Rothschild, who was responsible for the sacking of the father of Seumas Milne.
Electoral Calculus shows the Tories 33 short of a majority.
Con 293
Lab 279
LD 16
SNP 40
PC 3
Grn 1
UKIP 0
NI 18
Lab + C&S from Nationalists can just squeak a majority, so very weak minority Lab government.
No GE any time soon.
He is certainly outside the constraints of a 'Normal Politician', giving him scope to operate outside the norms of normal politicians. This is not wholly true of JC, in politics since the age of shedding his short trousers.
The Tory attitude changed significantly under Thatcher.
Anti-semitism can be found anywhere. It does not belong exclusively to the right or left. And there are different strands to it. Corbyn's leadership has simply made public a strand which was widespread within Far Left circles but which most people were unaware of.
See the BBC are under fire again for taking 30 minutes to cover the Westminster attack and then returning to their sports coverage and weather.
In the meantime Sky and ITV were covering it as were CNN and Euronews.
The BBC seems to be losing the plot. Suspect head of news needs to be fired
https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/1029297824712810496
For Labour, opponents complain it was the unions who elected Ed Miliband but the real story is it was the second preferences that pushed him over the line.
The other giveaway is that both parties tinker with the rules after each new leader pops up.
He was also upper middle class (albeit married to the daughter of a Duke) not upper class.
But, yes, it was a rather characteristic of a kind of sneeringly snobbish anti-semitism that was prevalent between the wars and among people of Macmillian's generation
Sounds familiar.
As head of IT, I remember have a very productive conversation with the CEO of a major company about our plans to use IT to transform business processes thereby cutting costs and improving customer service, at the end of which he asked me to have a look at his printer.
EDIT: I turned it off and on again which seemed to cure the problem. He was very impressed.
(Admittedly, not recently after he f*cked up while in the top job....)
No other politic… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1029077553317855240
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45181079
One thing 'economists seem too dim to understand (see Analysis below):
Analysis:
Andy Verity, economics correspondent
Here's something economists have thought for decades that they know for sure: that if unemployment keeps getting lower, wages will improve. For years, the economy's been rudely ignoring the economists' theory, with wages sagging even as the unemployment rate hits fresh lows.
What is it that economists are too dumb to understand?
The negative effect on rising wages of a minimum wage is greater than the upward pressure of higher employment.
Despite higher employment and demand for employment a minimum wage depresses the overall increase of wages.
In the Second Punic War, Rome had the far superior system. Even though it went through many inferior generals, and Carthage had the superb Hannibal, the supremacy of the Roman system gifted it ultimate victory.
Whilst the majority of the mainstream membership that you describe as the Cult give everything they have for a Labour Government
The Progress cult does everything they can to derail the party.
Preferring a Tory Government to a Corbyn one.
As Barry Davis would say Just look at Stephen Kinnocks Exit Poll face, just look at his face.
He was at a conference where both the Munich terrorists and the victims of the air raid were commemorated. You might also want to acquaint yourself with what else was discussed and said at that conference.
As rational as Sean T these days
A badge I wear with pride given who it is coming from.
Anyway, I have a meeting to prepare for in the City. I hope this latest terror incident is not going to mess up travel around London too much.
and thinks its funny
Get a grip
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/16/is-israel-an-apartheid-state-this-u-n-report-says-yes/?utm_term=.f366a50a191e
Sitting in Wetherspoon's enjoying breakfast when news of the latest "terrorist attack" broke. As always, long on speculation and short on facts. Yes, it's terror in its widest form but beyond that we'll see.
As far as Corbyn is concerned, I keep going back to the comments of Nick P and others. One of the problems with political parties is sometimes you have to choose a leader with whom the party may be uncomfortable but who resonates with the wider electorate or to put it bluntly, do you want a leader who you like or a leader who gets you power?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45181321
You may think this is acceptable. I don't. I don't think it funny at all. I think it a moral disaster. But clearly acting morally and honourably is no longer valued in politics - as my header yesterday pointed out.
And the meme is funny because someone like the leader you so admire coming up with implausible excuses for morally repulsive behaviour deserves having the piss taken out of him - and savagely.
They wouldn’t be the first driver to be spooked by an Ambulance with sirens blaring.
The issue is skilled professional staff where there are clear signs of insufficient capacity and labour shortages in a number of sectors. These can and do drive up wage inflation as we saw in the 1980s.
I note you use the term "Greater Israel" to make it look as if the report is talking about Israel and not the Occupied Territories which are not part of Israel.
And as the second paragraph of the report makes clear, its findings were "not cleared or fully backed by U.N. leadership".
It's not just an academic exercise to find out. Supporting the grotesque event at Munich isinexcusable and should certainly lead to his resignation. Attending a memorial for Palestinians killed in an illegal Israel air strike should not. Having witnessed one myself in Beirut in which 5 completely innocent Lebanese telephone workers were killed I'm well aware of Israel's disregard for the lives of non Israelis.
‘He was there, but doesn’t think he was involved’
And this is the issue: Jezza's sympathies have always and only been with the side that wanted to exterminate Israel and the Israelis. And you know what? Arab citizens though there are, Israel was and remains a Jewish State.
Huge piece of motorway to disintegrate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45183624