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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on will there be a Tory leadership contest in 2018
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on will there be a Tory leadership contest in 2018
Paddy Power’s market on whether there will be a Tory leadership contest in 2018 intrigues me. I’ve confirmed with them the precise terms of this bet. A vote of no confidence being called will not be enough, what needs to happen is for either Mrs May to lose a vote of confidence or resign and the Chairman of the 1922 committee to start accepting nominations for Mrs May’s successor.
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We can tell TSE is back from the dodgy 1980s pop music references
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/10/antisemitism-islamophobia-brexit-boris-johnson-muslim-women-ominous
Whilst I agree there's unlikely to be a contest this year, those odds aren't long enough to appeal.
Mr. B2, the suggestion there's a symmetry there is far overblown. When Boris describes terrorists who deny an Islamic nation's right to exist as friends, and starts (allegedly) laying wreaths and praying at the shrine of murderers who deliberately targeted Muslims, then the comparison between him and others would be apt.
There is a new Wil of the People to Remain. Brexit is being shown for what it is, a right wing British coup. Nothing us working, the Tories are at civil war, Brexit is a crime against what was a not so bad nation. That is no more. The gates of hell and all its demons have been unleashed and the electorate can see this. I hope that Brexit will fail and democracy restored, with if course the criminals sanctioned. The right of a democracy is to change its mind. The UK has changed its mind so let's put that to a vote.
Well, the next vote scheduled is the General Election in 2022 - where we can indeed gauge to what extent 'the UK has changed its mind'.
And a direct quote from the article:
The study was jointly commissioned by Best for Britain, which is campaigning against Brexit, and the anti-racist Hope Not Hate group.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/11/more-than-100-pro-leave-constituencies-switch-to-remain
Geordie Greig has told staff not to expect an immediate change in political coverage when he takes the reins from Paul Dacre, who spent 26 years in charge, for fear of alienating readers and because the wider political situation is so uncertain. Instead the focus will be on ensuring that the country achieves the least damaging form of Brexit and developing a more nuanced editorial line by next spring, a shift in emphasis that will be welcomed in Downing Street, where Theresa May is battling to control a revolt from the right of her party.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/aug/11/new-daily-mail-editor-will-strike-tolerant-brexit-note
With a possible Alonso announcement (WEC? Indy?) on Tuesday, that might take him out of the running.
And I found that the survey had been commissioned by the Scout Association!
https://youtube.com/watch?v=5xC2bNpXdAo
Puritanism was bullshit in the 17th century and it's bullshit today, even if it is fashionable amongst right-on hipsters and religious zealots.
As for Corbyn, he believed the Russian state over the British state (and international consensus) on the use of chemical weapons in Salisbury, seemingly joined in prayer at a terrorist grave out of 'respect' [he didn't do that at the first memorial service as Leader of the Opposition he attended], has questioned the use of drones to kill terrorists, and has been filmed suggesting that media bias can be indicated by the belief Israel has a right to exist.
https://twitter.com/luketress/status/1027149541504675840
Boris is a clown, unfit to be in the Cabinet. Corbyn is worse by an order of magnitude.
I think they’re getting ready.
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article180998720/Forsa-Umfrage-Gruene-ueberholen-AfD-Unionsparteien-rutschen-ab.html
Basically Germany is becoming ungovernable. The Greens might well overtake the SPD as theyre on a roll. Elements of Merkels party are now calling for the former communists ( Die Linke ) to be partners in government. When the CDU has reached that point you have to ask what do they stand for.
It sounds too clever by half and with the polling OK for May and the EU moving towards agreeing a variant of the Chequers Deal, she should survive any no confidence vote
Have a read of C. J. Sansom's excellent novel Dominion for a plausible view of how that might have turned out.
Hyperbole alert!
We have had a new German government for almost a year. In that year it has spent 6 months trying to put together a coalition and then the next 6 months trying to keep the mishmash together.
a left wing government wont work SPD+Green +Linke = 40%
a right wing one isnt possible either CDU+FDP = 40%
too many parties cant or wont work with each other. So give me your government.
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1028547966230061056
And some responses:
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1028551367735033856
As Die Linke is on 9% though SPD + Greens + Linke are on 42% combined which is more than the 40% for CDU/CSU + FDP combined.
CDU + SPD combined though are on 48% so the current Grand Coalition beats all combinations bar CDU + AfD + FDP on 54% combined but Merkel has made clear that is an unacceptable option for her
You can get better than evens on May's exit to happen after Brexit as well, which means she only has to survive in office as PM to 30th March (or later) -presuming there is no extension of A50 - to pay out.
until either Die Linke or the AfD become detoxed no government is possible except the current disfunctional coalition which threatens to dissolve every other month.
german elections have to take place every 4 years and the first one has gone with party bickering.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
I suspect Yougov collects enough information (from enough polls) about people that they can accurately validate predict how close any member is to their expected profile and hence know who to target within their members for their poll results.
Ashcroft simply doesn't have the information available to validate how representative the people he polled are...
Whisper it. Especially if you’re in the vicinity of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson, (unless, in the latter case, you are safely disguised as part of the postal system or Ronnie Biggs). But Theresa May’s Chequers strategy is starting to work.
As ever, this does not fit the popular Westminster narrative. We are meant to believe Mrs May’s premiership is imploding in an orgy of Tory in-fighting, as an enraged nation reacts in fury to her heinous Brexit betrayal. That her grand-design lies in ruins, rejected out of hand by the callous and conniving EU bureaucrats.
But once again, British politics is refusing to follow the script. The British people are proving stubbornly independent. And there are even signs the member states of the EU are finally realising that if they want to avoid a cliff-edge, no-deal, UK departure, they are going to have to start to respond to the PM’s pragmatism with some hard-headed realism of their own.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6051417/DAN-HODGES-Theresa-broken-wicked-Brexit-witches-spell.html
*gets coat*
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
too many people are fixated on a particular point in time. The world is much more complex and the biggest thing noone can factor in is "events". Whatever the final deal is, it is only the starting point for a new relationship with the EU. Time, events and new players on the scene will simply mean it will be different than any of the TINA options being pushed on PB.
Senior executives from some of the big four supermarkets made the alarming prediction in briefings to the Treasury on the impact on food prices of a no-deal Brexit.
The biggest tariffs on imports from the EU could include cheese, up by 44%, beef, up by 40%, and chicken, up 22%.
The warnings, which the Treasury is taking seriously, come as it is revealed that Britain’s monetary chiefs have ploughed the country’s foreign currency reserves into euros since the Brexit referendum, in what some are claiming is a vote of confidence in the stability of the single currency.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/supermarkets-on-brexit-no-deal-will-hike-food-bills-by-12-m7cbfb257
Maybe I'll be wrong. But we'll see.
It's only 23 months away, and we'll still be in the transition period and two years from a GE. If I'm reading May right, she wants to finish the job and have a couple of years to leave a domestic legacy.
If I'm reading the Party right, she won't fall until a new candidate emerges who can command support from all wings if she doesn't want to go
Importantly, there are maybe straws in the wind that EU leaders are sensing that No-Deal Boris is a possibility - and really, really not what they want. There are stories floating around that maybe, just maybe, they are now considering some alternatives.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party keeps May in place, but ramps up the pressure, inching a VONC nearer with every letter sent in.... It is an epic game of negotiating brinksmanship that might yet deliver an OK outcome. If it does, it will make it much easier for the Conservative Party to come back together, with each player saying they did their bit in the Great Brexit Game.
Given that Bannon’s strategy for Trump was “not to remind the white working class that they are working class, but to remind them that they are white”, Boris having a pop at immigrants does look familiar. Mind you, he could just be rerunning the Brexit playbook.
Brexiteers drifting towards Chequers BINO are a disgrace.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/01/everything-is-negotiable-how-the-election-result-may-have-improved-britains-negotiating-position-in-the-brexit-talks/
Is Chequers even close to an optimal outcome for the UK? No.
Is it better than a no deal Brexit? Yes, just.
If these are the options available does it make sense to support Chequers through gritted teeth? Yes.
The key, as I have said many times before, is not to regard the deal as the end state. There is no end state. Once out we can drift further away (or get closer again, if that is the popular will) at times of our choosing without an Article 50 process being held as a gun to our head.
Hence the reluctance of politicians making those promises to take ownership.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
Freedom of movement will be restricted.
Payments to the EU will be diminished.
We will have at least limited powers to negotiate our own trade deals.
We will have avoided a cliff edge.
The influence of EU lawmaking on our law will be significantly diminished and restricted to the SM.
There are aspects of Chequers that frankly dismay me. But there is a price to be paid for the incompetence of the last 18 months and it may well be it. The question is whether May can deliver it. Initial indications were not good. More recently there have been some encouraging signs.
The ERG have to get over 150 conservative mps to back them and that is for the birds.
Indeed it is likely conservative mps outside the ERG have become more determined to keep TM in place